Tag: BoE

  • Markets Calm, Geopolitics Linger as Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB Loom

    Markets Calm, Geopolitics Linger as Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB Loom



    Global markets were broadly steady on Monday, despite ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. The Nikkei led Asian bourses with a 1.26% while European indexes also opened higher. Even with Israel and Iran continuing to exchange military strikes, investor sentiment remained resilient. US equity futures are also treading water, suggesting cautiousness rather than panic ahead of a high-stakes week for global monetary policy.

    Oil prices ticked higher on geopolitical concerns but quickly settled back into Friday’s range, indicating that markets are becoming more conditioned to the risk headlines unless there is a major disruption to oil flows. Meanwhile, Gold gave back early gains after briefly spiking near a two-month high. The pullback reflects a modest unwinding of haven flows as traders turn their focus to upcoming central bank decisions and data rather than reacting solely to geopolitical developments.

    This week will be busy, with four major central banks—Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB—set to announce policy decisions. The backdrop is particularly complex: markets are navigating geopolitical flare-ups, looming tariff deadlines, and a busy calendar of economic data including retail sales, inflation, and employment reports. Investors will be looking for clues not only on rate direction but also on how policymakers assess the broader risk outlook.

    Technically, further rise is expected in Gold as long as 3376.70 minor support holds, for retesting 3499.79 high. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend. Nevertheless, break of 3376.70 will turn focus back to 3293.35 support. Firm break there will argue that corrective pattern from 3499.79 is extending with another falling leg.

    In Asia, Nikkei rose 1.26%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.84%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.35%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.02%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.06 to 1.462.

    ECB’s Nagel warns against premature policy commitment

    German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel struck a cautious tone at a conference today, warning against locking in any specific policy path amid persistent global uncertainty.

    Markets currently price in only one more rate cut by year-end. But Nagel resisted endorsing that outlook, stressing that rapidly evolving conditions make it unwise to pre-commit.

    “We must keep our eyes and ears open for the risks to price stability,” he said, pointing specifically to current developments in the Middle East as a source of heightened uncertainty.

    Nagel also offered a downbeat assessment of Germany’s near-term prospects, forecasting stagnation in Q2 and flagging the global trade war as a significant drag. He estimated that escalating trade tensions could shave as much as 0.75 percentage points off German growth over the medium term.

    ECB’s de Guindos sees inflation risks balanced, Euro strength not a concern

    In a Reuters interview, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos downplayed concerns over a return to the ultra-low inflation era of the 2010s, despite the recent strengthening of Euro. De Guindos acknowledged that these developments could weigh on headline inflation but emphasized that “the risk of undershooting is very limited.” He maintained that inflation risks are now “balanced”. Euro’s recent appreciation was neither rapid nor volatile, and therefore “not going to be a big obstacle” at 1.15 level.

    De Guindos expressed confidence that inflation will rebound after dipping to 1.4% in Q1 2026, citing a still-tight labor market and sustained wage pressures. Compensation growth, supported by union demands, is expected to remain near 3%. This aligns with ECB’s medium-term outlook of returning inflation to its 2% target.

    While stopping short of explicitly endorsing a pause, de Guindos indicated that market pricing for just one more rate cut, potentially later this year, was consistent with ECB President Christine Lagarde’s latest messaging.

    “Markets have understood perfectly well what the President said about being in a good position,” he noted, adding that investors now correctly anticipate that the ECB is nearing the end of its easing cycle.

    NZ BNZ services slumps to 44.0, economy returning to recession

    New Zealand’s services sector took a steep turn downward in May, with the BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index plunging from 48.1 to 44.0, the lowest reading since June 2024. Activity and new orders led the decline, falling from 46.7 and 50.2 to 40.1 and 43.2 respectively, as businesses reported broad-based weakness in demand. Employment also edged down from 47.9 to 47.2.

    Sentiment on the ground paints an equally grim picture. Negative commentary from survey respondents rose to 65.6%, up from 61.8% in April. Businesses cited reduced consumer spending, revenue declines, and heightened uncertainty over inflation, interest rates, and the economic outlook. Many reported that customers are delaying decisions and becoming more cautious in their spending—mirroring trends typically seen during periods of economic stress.

    BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted that the PSI collapse closely follows the earlier fall in the Performance of Manufacturing Index, reinforcing signs of widespread economic fragility. With both key sectors now contracting, concerns are rising that New Zealand may be “returning to recession”.

    China’s retail sales shine with 6.4% yoy growth, but production and investment drag continues

    China’s latest economic data for May paints a mixed picture. Industrial production rose 5.8% yoy, falling short of the expected 6.0% and reflecting lingering weakness in external demand. This comes on the heels of a sharp -34.5% yoy drop in exports to the US, despite the mid-May rollback of some tariffs. The full impact of reduced tariffs is expected to emerge more clearly in June though.

    In contrast, retail sales provided a bright spot, jumping 6.4% yoy and beating forecasts of 5.0% yoy. The rebound was supported by the government’s aggressive push to boost consumer spending through its appliance and vehicle trade-in program. The Ministry of Commerce reported that the campaign has already generated over CNY 1.1m in sales this year.

    However, fixed asset investment remains a drag, growing only 3.7% ytd yoy versus expectations of 3.9%. The persistent weakness in property investment, down 10.7% in the first five months of the year, highlights ongoing strain in the real estate sector.

    Four central banks, one volatile week

    Markets are heading into a packed week, with four major central banks—Fed, BoJ, BoE, and SNB—set to announce policy decisions, all against the backdrop of heightened geopolitical risk, trade policy uncertainty, and a flurry of critical economic data. Alongside the rate decisions, key data including retail sales, inflation, and job report will further shape expectations.

    Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25–4.50%, with near-universal pricing in the futures market reflecting that consensus. There is little urgency for Fed to act, given the still-resilient labor market and the fiscal support flowing from new tax and spending legislation. However, the path ahead is anything but straightforward. While recent CPI and PPI data showed no clear sign of tariffs filtering through, the risk of a renewed trade war is growing. Whether tariffs are rolled back or re-escalated after the 90-day truce expires will heavily influence Fed’s next move. A Reuters poll shows economists split—55% expect rate cuts to resume in Q3, while 42% forecast cuts only in Q4 or later.

    Meanwhile, oil prices are emerging as a new threat to the disinflation trend. If the Middle East conflict worsens, a sustained energy rally could delay the Fed’s easing cycle further. That’s a major variable markets will be watching, especially if headline inflation picks up again. Fed Chair Powell will likely emphasize data dependency while avoiding strong forward guidance, leaving markets to interpret incoming economic and geopolitical developments on their own.

    BoJ is also expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. With trade tensions high, the odds of another hike this year have dropped sharply. A Reuters poll found 52% of economists now expect no further move in 2025, while over three-quarters foresee one 25bps hike by March 2026. If trade talks stabilize and global demand revives, the BoJ could reconsider tightening, but for now, the path of least resistance is to wait and observe.

    BoE meets amid growing evidence of domestic weakness, including softer-than-expected GDP and labor market data. Still, policymakers are expected to hold the Bank Rate at 4.25% this week. The BoE has been moving cautiously and gradually, citing lingering inflation and wage pressures. The Monetary Policy Committee remains divided: two members pushed for a 50bps cut at the last meeting, while others voted to hold. A Reuters poll shows most economists expect 25bps cuts in both Q3 and Q4, bringing the rate down to 3.75% by year-end. However, that easing path will also hinge on upcoming inflation data, due this week.

    Among the four, SNB stands out as the only one likely to ease. A 25bps cut to 0.00% is widely anticipated as SNB confronts rising deflationary pressure. May’s consumer price index fell -0.1% yoy, the first negative print in over four years. Coupled with the strong Swiss Franc, which has appreciated significantly amid geopolitical risk flows, deflation risks are intensifying. Markets are even speculating that the SNB could pre-emptively cut by 50bps or signal readiness to re-enter negative territory if warranted.

    Beyond the rate decisions, other important central bank communications are scheduled too. BoC will release its summary of deliberations, and the BoJ will publish minutes of its recent meeting—both likely to offer insight into policy calibration ahead. Meanwhile, key economic data including retail sales from the US, UK, and Canada, UK CPI, and Australian employment figures.

    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3550; (P) 1.3601; (R1) 1.3635; More…

    USD/CAD’s decline continues today and intraday bias stays on the downside. Current fall from 1.4791 should target 100% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3349. On the upside, through, break of 1.3650 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3069.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:30 NZD Business NZ PSI May 48.5
    23:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index M/M Jun 0.60%
    02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y May 6.00% 6.10%
    02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y May 5.00% 5.10%
    02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y May 3.90% 4.00%
    06:30 CHF PPI M/M May 0.10% 0.10%
    06:30 CHF PPI Y/Y May -0.50%
    07:00 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
    12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Jun -6.7 -9.2

     



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  • Sterling Slides on Poor UK GDP, While Dollar Struggles Under Trade Uncertainty

    Sterling Slides on Poor UK GDP, While Dollar Struggles Under Trade Uncertainty


    Sterling came under renewed pressure at the start of European session, triggered by a deeper-than-expected contraction in UK GDP for April. Services sector, the economy’s dominant component, posted its first monthly decline since October. Nine out of 14 services subsectors registered falls, pointing to broad-based weakness. It’s a disappointing start to Q2 and follows weaker-than-expected labor data earlier in the week.

    The string of soft UK economic releases is likely to reinforce BoE’s case for policy easing. Market expectations for a rate cut in August are now firming, with investors betting that the BoE will continue its gradual loosening cycle. While the central bank has maintained a cautious stance thus far, the data flow increasingly supports action sooner rather than later, especially if core inflation continues to moderate alongside cooling wages and tepid output growth.

    Meanwhile, Dollar remains the worst-performing major currency this week, despite receiving a brief reprieve from a strong 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday. Market attention is now on today’s 30-year auction, which could provide further clues about investor confidence in US fiscal stability. A solid reception would help calm nerves around rising debt issuance.

    However, the broader macro backdrop, particularly trade uncertainty, continues to weigh heavily on the greenback. Hopes that this week’s US-China talks would deliver material de-escalation were dashed after no tariffs were rolled back as part of the so-called framework deal. Instead, the absence of concrete outcomes, coupled with hints that the US may further delay its self-imposed 90-day tariff review deadline, has left markets in limbo.

    Testifying before Congress, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting that Washington may extend the negotiation window with key trading partners—including the EU—if they are seen to be acting in “good faith”. While this may avert immediate tariff escalation, it also signals that trade talks could drag on well into the second half of the year. That lack of resolution is weighing on sentiment and feeding into a mild risk-off tone across markets.

    In terms of weekly currency performance, Euro is the clear outperformer, while Yen and Swiss Franc are also benefiting from safe-haven flows. At the other end of the spectrum, Dollar leads the laggards, followed by the Aussie and Sterling. The Loonie and Kiwi are trading more neutrally. Overall, markets are showing a tilt toward risk aversion.

    Technically, an immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. in EUR/GBP. Decisive break there will suggest that fall from 0.8737 has completed at 0.8354. Even as a corrective bounce, rise from there would target 61.8% retracement at 0.8591.

    In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.65%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.89%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.03%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.21%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.002 to 1.458. Overnight, DOW closed down -0.00%. S&P 500 fell -0.27%. NASDAQ fell -0.50%. 10-year yield fell sharply by -0.062 to 4.412.

    UK GDP contracts -0.3% mom in April, as services drag

    The UK economy contracted -0.3% mom in April, a sharper decline than the expected -0.1%. The main drag came from the services sector, which fell -0.4% mom and contributed most to the monthly GDP drop. Production also shrank -0.6% mom. In contrast, construction provided a rare bright spot, rising 0.9% mom, though not enough to offset broader weakness.

    Despite the poor April print, the broader picture remains more constructive. GDP expanded 0.7% in the three months to April compared to the prior three-month period, with services up 0.6%, production up 1.1%, and construction up 0.5%.

    Japanese business confidence sours amid tariff fears and profit warnings

    Business sentiment in Japan deteriorated sharply in Q2, with the Ministry of Finance’s survey revealing a broad-based loss of confidence across industries.

    The overall index for large firms slipped into negative territory at -1.09, down from Q1’s modest 2.0. Large manufacturers saw sentiment weaken further from -2.4 to -4.8, while large non-manufacturers experienced a steep drop from 5.2 to -5.7, suggesting that economic uncertainty is spreading beyond export-heavy sectors.

    The survey also highlighted a growing sense of earnings pessimism. Large manufacturers now expect recurring profits to decline -1.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, a downgrade from the -0.6% fall seen in the previous survey. Particularly alarming is the auto sector’s outlook, with automakers and parts suppliers projecting a severe -19.8% drop in profits.

    This highlights the mounting concern over the impact of steep US tariffs, which threaten to hit Japan’s flagship export industry hard and weigh on broader economic momentum.

    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1429; (P) 1.1465; (R1) 1.1524; More…

    EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1064 resumed by breaking through 1.1494 and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1572 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall, to extend the near term consolidation pattern. Firm break of 1.1404 support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1209 first. However, decisive break of 1.1572 will resume whole rise from 1.0176.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance May -8% -3% -3%
    23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Index Q2 -4.8 0.8 -2.4
    01:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Jun 5.00% 4.10%
    06:00 GBP GDP M/M Apr -0.30% -0.10% 0.20%
    06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Apr -0.60% -0.40% -0.70%
    06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Apr -0.30% -0.20% -0.70%
    06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Apr -0.90% -0.80% -0.80%
    06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Apr 0.40% 0.40% -0.80%
    06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Apr -23.2B -20.8B -19.9B
    12:30 USD PPI M/M May 0.20% -0.50%
    12:30 USD PPI Y/Y May 2.60% 2.40%
    12:30 USD PPI Core M/M May 0.30% -0.40%
    12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y May 3.00% 3.10%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 6) 251K 247K
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 108B 122B

     



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  • Sterling Slumps as UK Jobs Data Fuels August BoE Rate Cut Bets

    Sterling Slumps as UK Jobs Data Fuels August BoE Rate Cut Bets


    Sterling is sold off notably today after dismal UK labor market data intensified expectations of a BoE rate cut in August. The most striking element was the -109k drop in payrolled employment—the largest non-pandemic decline since records began in 2014—coupled with a rise in the unemployment rate to its highest level since mid-2023.

    While wage growth remains elevated, its slowdown reinforces the view that inflationary pressures are easing. With signs that labour market cooling is gaining momentum, markets are increasingly pricing in not just an August rate cut, but a follow-up move in November. Traders will, however, closely monitor Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ fiscal statement tomorrow, which may influence expectations depending on the scale and orientation of policy shifts.

    Elsewhere, markets are also eyeing the second day of US-China trade talks in London. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that he expected a full day meeting today, while the negotiations are “going well”. Both sides are expected to issue updates later in the day.

    Overall in the currency markets, Sterling is currently the worst performer, followed by Swiss Franc, and then Dollar. Loonie is the best, followed by Aussie, and then Euro. Yen and Aussie are positioning in the middle.

    Technically, focus is now on 1.1045 support in GBP/CHF with today’s dip. Firm break there will complete a head and shoulder top pattern, which suggest that rise from 1.0610 has completed, at 1.1200. Deeper decline should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.0610 to 1.1200 at 1.0975, and possibly further to 61.8% retracement at 1.0835.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.53%. DAX is down -0.40%. CAC is up 0.01%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.094 at 4.543. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.035 at 2.535. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.32%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.08%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.44%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.06%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.002 to 1.480.

    ECB’s Villeroy: Favorable 2 and 2 zone is not static

    French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in a conference today that ECB is now in a favorable “2 and 2 zone. That means, inflation is forecast at 2% this year, while deposit rate is also at 2%.

    Nevertheless, he warned that with current uncertainties, this zone “does not mean a comfortable zone or a static zone”. “We will remain pragmatic and data-driven, and as agile as necessary,” Villeroy added.

    Separately, Finnish ECB policymaker Olli Rehn warned that as inflation is projected to stay below 2% this year, the central must be mind of “not slipping towards the zero lower bound.”

    “We must not grow overconfident — instead we must stay vigilant and monitor the risks in both directions,” Rehn said. “The ECB team must remain alert and ready to act with agility as and if needed.”

    Eurozone Sentix surges back into positive territory, recession fears recede

    Investor sentiment in the Eurozone turned notably upbeat in June, as Sentix Investor Confidence index climbed from -8.1 to +0.2—its first positive reading since June 2024 and well above expectations of -6. Current Situation Index also improved markedly from -19.3 to -13.0, while Expectations Index jumped from 3.8 to 14.3.

    Germany led the improvement, with its overall Sentix index rising to -5.9, the highest since March 2022. Expectations climbed by 12 points to 17.5, while current conditions advanced for the fourth consecutive month to -26.8.

    According to Sentix, fears of a recession triggered by the US tariff shock in April have largely dissipated, and the economic outlook for the Eurozone is now tilted toward a cyclical upswing.

    With economic momentum building and the Sentix inflation barometer showing signs of easing price pressures, ECB may view its policy as being in a “comfort zone.” While another rate cut isn’t off the table, any such move could be delayed if the upswing continues to solidify over the summer.

    UK labor market softens as unemployment rises to 4.6% and wage growth slows

    UK labor market data released today point to gradual cooling. In May, payrolled employment dropped by -109k, or -0.4% mom. Claimant count rose sharply by 33.1k, well above the expected 4.5k increase. Wage pressures are also easing, with median monthly pay rising by 5.8% yoy, down from 6.2% previously, though still within a relatively tight band seen this year.

    For the three months to April, unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% as expected, while both average earnings measures came in softer than forecast. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) rose 5.2% yoy, and total pay increased 5.3% yoy, both under the 5.5% consensus.

    BoJ’s Ueda reaffirms gradual tightening path, cites limited room for rate cuts

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated to parliament today that interest rate hikes will continue, though cautiously, once the central bank gains “more conviction that underlying inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level”.

    Ueda explained that BoJ still maintains negative real interest rates to support inflation momentum and ensure price growth remains both stable and sustained.

    However, Ueda also flagged a significant limitation in policy space should economic conditions deteriorate. With the short-term policy rate still only at 0.5%, the BoJ has “limited room” to cut rates in response to any sharp downturn in growth.

    Australia’s Westpac consumer sentiment edges higher as rate cuts clash with growth worries

    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index rose a modest 0.5% mom in June to 92.6, reflecting a population still mired in what Westpac called a “holding pattern of cautious pessimism.”

    The data reveal “two clear opposing forces” shaping household attitudes: easing inflation and RBA’s May rate cut have improved perceptions around major purchases. On the other hand, sluggish domestic growth and global trade uncertainties continue to weigh heavily on expectations.

    Looking ahead, attention turns to the RBA’s next meeting on July 7–8. With economic data remaining mixed and labor market tightness still evident, Westpac expects the central bank to proceed with caution and keep the cash rate on hold. Nonetheless, a fresh round of economic projections in August could pave the way for another 25 basis point cut, as RBA recalibrates its stance amid still-sluggish growth.

    Australia’s NAB business confidence lifts to 2, but employment conditions erode

    Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index turned positive in May, rising from -1 to 2. However, the improvement in confidence was not matched by underlying business conditions, which weakened further. Business Conditions index slipped from 2 to 0, with trading conditions dipping slightly from 6 to 5, profitability remaining in the red at -4, and employment conditions dropping from 4 to 0 — all pointing to a stagnating environment.

    On the inflation front, cost indicators presented a mixed picture. Labor cost growth remained firm at a quarterly equivalent pace of 1.7%. Purchase cost and final product price growth eased to 1.1% and 0.5%, respectively. Retail price growth held steady at 1.2%, suggesting persistent margin pressures.

    NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld emphasized that business conditions are still weak and warned that continued softness could cap any recovery in confidence. She also flagged the labor market as a key area to monitor, with the employment index now below average.

    EUR/GBP Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8419; (P) 0.8424; (R1) 0.8433; More…

    EUR/GBP’s rebound from resumed by breaking through 0.8448 resistance, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. Strong resistance could be seen from 0.8500 to complete the corrective bounce. On the downside, break of 0.8413 support will bring retest of 0.8354 low. However, firm break of 0.8500 will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 0.8591 instead.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8221 medium term bottom are merely forming a corrective pattern. Nevertheless, there is no clear momentum to break through 0.8201 key support (2022 low) yet. Hence, range trading is expected between 0.8221/8737 for now.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y May 0.60% 2.70% 6.80%
    23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y May 0.60% 0.50%
    00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Jun 0.50% 2.20%
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence May 2 -1
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions May 0 2
    06:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y May 3.40% 7.70%
    06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change May 33.1K 4.5K 5.2K -21.2K
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Apr 5.20% 5.50% 5.60% 5.50%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Apr 5.30% 5.50% 5.50% 5.60%
    06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Apr 4.60% 4.60% 4.50%
    08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Jun 0.2 -6 -8.1
    10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index May 98.8 95.9 95.8

     



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  • Markets Eye US-China Trade Talks for Fresh Catalyst

    Markets Eye US-China Trade Talks for Fresh Catalyst


    Asian equity markets opened the week on a positive note, supported by cautious optimism surrounding the high-stakes US-China trade negotiations in London. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, along with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, are meeting Chinese counterparts as efforts to revive dialogue intensify. The outcome of these talks could set the tone for broader risk sentiment in the coming sessions.

    Despite the upbeat market tone, traders appear restrained in their positioning. While recent developments — such as China’s approval of rare earth export licenses — hint at a willingness to de-escalate, there’s little in the way of concrete breakthrough yet. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett tempered enthusiasm by pointing out that China’s release of critical minerals remains below what the US believes was agreed to previously in Geneva. As such, expectations for a definitive deal remain muted, limiting any aggressive risk-on trades for now.

    Currency markets reflect this tempered tone. Aussie and Kiwi are modestly firmer, benefiting from the underlying improvement in sentiment, Dollar and Loonie are trading on the softer side. European majors and Yen are relatively steady in the middle. With most major pairs holding inside Friday’s ranges, the currency space is clearly in wait-and-see mode.

    Beyond trade, inflation will be the other key macro theme this week. The US will release its May CPI and PPI data, alongside the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. Markets are keen to assess whether signs of tariff-driven are beginning to firm. A surprise to the upside could challenge the current market view that the Fed’s next move will be no earlier than Q4, particularly if inflation expectations also pick up.

    Technically, Gold’s extended decline argues that rebound from 3120.34 might have completed at 3403.39 already, with break of near term channel support and bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Further fall is now in favor to 3245.23 support first. Firm break there will the solidify the case that corrective pattern from 3499.79 is already in its third leg, and target 3120.34 support and possibly below.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.89%. Hong Kong HSI is up 0.88%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.26%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.15%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.011 at 1.470.

    China’s CPI falls -0.1% yoy in May, negative for fourth month

    China’s headline CPI stayed in negative territory for the fourth consecutive month in May, coming in at -0.1% yoy, slightly better than the expected -0.2% yoy.

    The persistent softness in overall inflation was largely driven by a sharp -6.1% yoy decline in energy prices, which alone shaved off nearly half a percentage point from the annual CPI reading.

    On a monthly basis, CPI fell -0.2% mom, with energy again dragging down the figure through a -1.7% mom decline.

    In contrast, core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, rose to 0.6% yoy, the highest level since January.

    Producer price pressures continue to weaken further, with PPI dropping to -3.3% yoy from -2.7% yoy previously, marking the deepest contraction in nearly two years. Wholesale prices have now been stuck in deflation since October 2022.

    China’s trade surplus widens to USD 103.2B in May, US exports slump -34.5% yoy

    China’s trade surplus widened to USD 103.2B in May, exceeding expectations of USD 101.3, even as headline export and import figures undershot forecasts. Exports rose 4.8% yoy, just shy of the 5.0% yoy consensus. Imports fell -3.4% yoy, a sharper drop than the anticipated -0.9% yoy.

    Exports to the US plunged -34.5% yoy, highlighting the entrenched trade tensions despite Washington’s partial tariff rollback in April. However, the impact was cushioned by robust growth in exports to ASEAN (15% yoy), the European Union (12% yoy), and Africa (33% yoy).

    ECB’s Nagel signals Pause, cites maximum flexibility at current rates

    German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel indicated over the weekend that the central bank is likely entering a pause phase after last week’s eighth rate cut in the current easing cycle, which brought the deposit rate to 2.00%.

    Speaking on Deutschlandfunk radio, Nagel also noted that the current level of interest rates offers “maximum flexibility.” And, “We can now take the time to look at the situation first.”

    BoE’s Greene warns on inflation sensitivity, risk of wage-price spiral

    BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene acknowledged at a Saturday conference that while UK inflation is moving “in the right direction,” the pace of decline is slower than she would prefer.

    Speaking candidly about April’s upside inflation surprise, Greene stated that while the MPC believes it can “look through” the jump, there remains a “pretty big risk” that price pressures could become more entrenched, especially if second-round effects materialize.

    Greene also highlighted the behavioral shift triggered by the recent cost-of-living crisis, warning that past inflation shocks may have left households and businesses more reactive to even small price increases. That, in turn, could “feed through the wage-price behavior.” S

    He noted that private-sector wage growth remains “way above” the level consistent with the BoE’s 2% inflation target.

    Tariff effects under scrutiny as US CPI, PPI and inflation expectations take center stage

    A relatively quiet week for global economic releases will nevertheless carry key signals for monetary policy in both the US and UK.

    US May CPI report will be front and center, offering insight into whether there is an emerging inflation pickup from tariffs. Headline CPI is expected to accelerate from 2.3% yoy to 2.5% yoy. Core CPI is seen rising to 2.9% after troughing at 2.8% for two months. A rise in both measures would raise concerns that 2025’s slow disinflation trend is reversing just as tariffs begin to seep into consumer prices.

    Additional confirmation may come from upstream price pressures in PPI data, alongside consumer inflation expectations in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. If all three elements—CPI, PPI, and expectations—firm, the Fed’s cautious stance would harden further. While markets currently lean toward a September cut, such an inflation environment could shift expectations toward Q4.

    In the UK, attention will turn to April GDP and labor market data. GDP is expected to show a mild contraction of -0.1% mom. But that may be less concerning given signs that post-trade deal clarity with the US could support stronger growth later in Q2. The more pivotal element will be wage growth, which has remained stubbornly high and continues to feed into sticky services inflation—a key concern for BoE.

    Diverging views within the Monetary Policy Committee remain apparent. While some members are inclined to ease, Chief Economist Huw Pill has warned last month that the UK’s weak productivity growth and embedded wage pressures could mirror past inflationary episodes. His remarks highlight that underlying structural risks—especially in the labor market—may prevent BoE from loosening policy too quickly, even if growth remains uneven.

    Here are some highlights of the week:

    • Monday: New Zealand manufacturing sales; Japan GDP final; China CPI, PPI, trade balance.
    • Tuesday: Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business confidence; UK employment; Swiss SECO consumer climate; Eurozone Sentix investor confidence.
    • Wednesday: Japan PPI; Canada building permit; US CPI.
    • Thursday: Japan BSI manufacturing; UK GDP, industrial and manufacturing production, goods trade balance; US PPI, jobless claims.
    • Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; Japan tertiary industry index; Germany CPI final; Eurozone industrial production, trade balance; Canada wholesale sales, manufacturing sales; US U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6476; (P) 0.6497; (R1) 0.6513; More…

    AUD/USD recovers mildly today but stays below 0.6536 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Further rise is in favor as long as 0.6406 support holds. On the upside, decisive break of 0.6536 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6406 will turn bias to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6536 at 0.6298.

    In the bigger picture, AUD/USD is still struggling to sustain above 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) cleanly, and outlook is mixed. Sustained trading above 55 W EMA will indicate that rise from 0.5913 is at least correcting the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high), with risk of trend reversal. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.6713. However, rejection by 55 W EMA will revive medium term bearishness for another fall through 0.5913 at a later stage.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:45 NZD Manufacturing Sales Q1 5.10% 1.10% 3.00%
    23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y May 2.40% 2.40% 2.40% 2.30%
    23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Apr 2.31T 2.59T 2.72T
    23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.00% -0.20% -0.20%
    23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q1 F 3.30% 3.30% 3.30%
    01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y May -0.10% -0.20% -0.10%
    01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y May -3.30% -3.00% -2.70%
    03:00 CNY Trade Balance (USD) May 103.2B 101.1B 96.2B
    05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current May 44.4 43.9 42.6
    14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories M/M Apr F 0% 0%

     



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  • British Pound trades flat amid BoE caution, US Dollar recovers modestly

    British Pound trades flat amid BoE caution, US Dollar recovers modestly


    • GBP/USD trades flat on Tuesday, holding within Monday’s range near 1.3520.
    • BoE Governor Bailey sees rates moving lower but warns of increased uncertainty.
    • A split within the MPC signals a cautious, data-driven rate path ahead.

    The British Pound (GBP) is trading flat against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, edging slightly lower from its intraday high while remaining within Monday’s range. The GBP/USD pair holds steady as the US Dollar eases slightly from a six-week low, with market participants eyeing upcoming US economic data and digesting fresh commentary from Bank of England (BoE) officials following Tuesday’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings.

    At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair is trading around 1.3521 during the late American session, paring some of Monday’s gains amid a lack of clear directional drivers. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is staging a mild recovery after Monday’s drop to a six-week low, supported by upbeat JOLTS Job Openings data. The index has climbed back above the 99.00 mark, hovering near Monday’s high and last seen trading around 99.23.

    Earlier on Tuesday, Bank of England officials appeared before Parliament to offer fresh insight into the central bank’s policy outlook during the Monetary Policy Report Hearings. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated that interest rates are likely to head lower, but stressed that the path ahead is increasingly uncertain. “I think the path remains downwards, but how far and how quickly is now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty,” Bailey noted, citing heightened global trade tensions and their potential to disrupt investment and economic growth.

    Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden, a centrist on the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), told lawmakers that she supported the May rate cut even in the absence of external trade shocks, reinforcing the BoE’s bias toward easing. However, divisions within the MPC remain clear—Swati Dhingra pushed for a deeper cut, warning of the drag from tight policy, while Catherine Mann, an external member of the MPC who opposed the May rate cut, said the labor market appeared to be cooling less than she had anticipated back in February, when she supported a more aggressive half-point reduction.

    Overall, the BoE hearings revealed that while interest rates are likely to decrease, there is no clear consensus on how quickly this should occur. Some members are concerned that inflation may persist, while others believe that keeping rates too high for too long could harm the economy. With opinions clearly split, the central bank is likely to take a cautious, data-driven approach in the months ahead.



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  • Euro Slips on Softer CPI, But Trading Largely Listless

    Euro Slips on Softer CPI, But Trading Largely Listless


    The currency markets remain largely listless today, with all major pairs and crosses still trapped within last week’s ranges. Euro edged slightly lower following the release of Eurozone CPI data, which showed inflation falling below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since September last year. The core measure also softened notably, reinforcing the view that disinflationary pressures—particularly within services—are well entrenched. With inflation now comfortably back within target, markets have little doubt that ECB will proceed with a 25bps rate cut this Thursday.

    Uncertainty over tariffs continues to hover as a key wildcard. With little clarity on whether the US will escalate its trade actions further, markets are reluctant to commit. A July pause from ECB remains the base case, but further action could hinge on whether tariffs ultimately push inflation up through cost channels—or suppress demand and contribute to disinflation. This dilemma is front and center as policymakers navigate crosscurrents in growth and prices.

    Adding to the cautious mood, the OECD revised its global growth forecasts downward. It now sees world GDP expanding just 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, citing increased trade barriers and lingering policy uncertainty as key drags. OECD Secretary General Mathias Cormann warned that a further 10 percentage point hike in US bilateral tariffs could shave 0.3% off global output over two years, while likely adding to inflation in affected countries.

    Technically, AUD/JPY continues to press 38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 95.63 at 91.96. Firm break of this fibonacci level will extend the correction from 95.63 to 100% projection of 95.63 to 91.64 from 93.85 at 89.86. Nevertheless, strong bounce from current level, followed by break of 93.85 resistance, will argue that rise from 86.03 is ready to resume through 95.63.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.17%. DAX is up 0.16%. CAC is down -0.15%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.038 at 4.632. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.019 at 2.51. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.06%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.53%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.43%. Singapore Strait times rose 0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.27 to 1.482.

    BoE’s Bailey: Rate path still downward, but clouded by unpredictability

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told the Treasury Committee today that while the direction for interest rates remains downward, the outlook has become increasingly uncertain.

    Declining to pre-commit to a vote at the upcoming June meeting, Bailey said, “the path remains downwards, but how far and how quickly is now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty.”

    He emphasized the role of external forces, noting that the Bank has revised its language to reflect the “unpredictable” nature of the current global environment.

    His comments were echoed by fellow policymakers Catherine Mann and Sarah Breeden, who both acknowledged that rates are likely headed lower but stressed the difficulty in forecasting the exact pace or scale of future cuts.

    Mann warned against assuming a fixed glide path, while Breeden said “there is uncertainty about how far, how fast.”

    Eurozone CPI falls to 1.9%, below ECB target for first time since Sep 2024

    Eurozone inflation dipped back below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since September 2024. Headline CPI fell from 2.2% yoy to 1.9% yoy in May, undershooting expectations of 2.0%. Core CPI (ex-energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also eased more than forecast to 2.3% from 2.7%.

    The disinflation was led by a sharp slowdown in services inflation, which dropped from 4.0% yoy to 3.2% yoy. Non-energy industrial goods remained unchanged at 0.6% yoy. Energy prices continued to contract at -3.6% yoy, reinforcing the broader downward pressure. Despite a slight uptick in food and alcohol inflation to 3.3% yoy, the overall picture confirms easing price momentum across key sectors.

    Swiss CPI falls to -0.1% yoy, first negative since 2021

    Swiss consumer inflation turned negative in May for the first time since March 2021, with headline CPI falling -0.1% yoy, down from 0.0% in April yoy. Core inflation, which strips out volatile components such as fresh food and energy, slipped to 0.5% yoy from 0.6% yoy previously.

    On a monthly basis, both headline and core CPI rose 0.1%, in line with expectations.

    The breakdown reveals that domestic product prices grew just 0.2% mom and decelerated to from 0.8% yoy to 0.6% yoy. Imported goods prices were flat on the month and fell -2.4% yoy, ticked up from -2.5% yoy.

    BoJ’s Ueda: Ready to hike if wage growth recovers from tariff drag

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament today that recently imposed U.S. tariffs could weigh on Japanese corporate sentiment, potentially impacting winter bonus payments and next year’s wage negotiations.

    He acknowledged that wage growth may “slow somewhat” in the near term due to these external pressures. However, Ueda expressed confidence that wage momentum would eventually “re-accelerate”, helping to sustain a moderate growth in household consumption.

    Looking ahead, Ueda reiterated the BoJ’s readiness to adjust its ultra-loose policy if the economy evolves in line with its projections. “If we’re convinced our forecast will materialize, we will adjust the degree of monetary support by raising interest rates,” he said.

    However, he cautioned that uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remains “extremely high.”

    RBA’s Hunter: AUD’s recent resilience linked to global shift away from USD exposure

    RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter addressed the unusual behavior of the Australian Dollar in recent months in a speech today. She highlighted that while initial moves were consistent with past risk-off episodes, the currency’s subsequent rebound against the US Dollar stood out as “more unusual”.

    On a “trade-weighted” basis, AUD has remained broadly stable, even though it has appreciated against the greenback and the Chinese renminbi, while weakening against most other major currencies.

    This divergence, Hunter explained, stems from “offsetting factors”. Global growth concerns have pressured the AUD against safe-haven and cyclical peers, while simultaneous outflows from US assets have weakened the US Dollar.

    Hunter cautioned that it’s too soon to tell whether this trend will persist, but acknowledged that recent market behavior reflects shifting investor sentiment, particularly toward capital reallocation away from US assets. As a result, Australian Dollar’s relative resilience against USD may be underpinned by portfolio rebalancing and perceived relative economic stability.

    Hunter noted that the trade-weighted index has reverted to “pre-shock values”, suggesting minimal net change in the foreign-currency value of Australian exports. However, the “relative move of capital” into Australia, at a time when the US is facing policy and tariff-related volatility, could offer some support to “domestic investment activity”, providing a cushion to the broader economy amid global uncertainties.

    RBA Minutes: 25bps cut chosen for caution and predictability after debating hold and 50bps options

    RBA’s May 20 meeting minutes revealed that policymakers weighed three policy options—holding rates, a 25bps cut, or a larger 50bps reduction—before ultimately opting for a modest 25bps cut to 3.85%.

    The case for easing hinged on three key factors: sustained progress in bringing inflation back toward target without upside surprises, weakening global conditions and household consumption, and the view that a cut would be the “path of least regret” given the risk distribution.

    While members discussed a 50bps reduction after deciding to ease, they found the case for a larger move unconvincing. Australian data at the time showed little evidence that trade-related global uncertainty was materially harming domestic activity. Furthermore, some scenarios might even result in upward pressure on inflation, prompting caution. The Board also assessed that it was “not yet time to move monetary policy to an expansionary stance”.

    Ultimately, the Board judged that to move “cautiously and predictably” was more appropriate.

    Caixin PMI manufacturing drops to 48.3, as China faces marked weakening at start of Q2

    China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank in May, with Caixin PMI falling to 48.3 from 50.4, well below market expectations of 50.6. This marked the first contraction in eight months and the lowest reading since September 2022.

    According to Caixin Insight’s Wang Zhe, both supply and demand weakened, with a particularly notable drag from overseas demand. Employment continued to contract, pricing pressures remained subdued, and logistics saw moderate delays. Although business optimism saw a marginal recovery, the broader picture points to intensifying headwinds.

    The report highlights the fragile start to Q2, with Wang pointing to a “marked weakening” in key economic indicators and a “significantly intensified” level of downward pressure.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1377; (P) 1.1413; (R1) 1.1480; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral with current retreat. Rebound from 1.1064 could extend higher, but strong resistance should be seen from 1.1572 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. On the downside, break of 1.1209 support will indicate that the corrective pattern from 1.1572 has started the third leg, and target 1.1064 support.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0856) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:45 NZD Terms of Trade Index Q1 1.90% 3.60% 3.10% 3.20%
    23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y May -3.40% -4.20% -4.80%
    01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
    01:30 AUD Current Account (AUD) Q1 -14.7B -12.0B -12.5B -16.3B
    01:45 CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI May 48.3 50.6 50.4
    06:30 CHF CPI M/M May 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
    06:30 CHF CPI Y/Y May -0.10% -0.10% 0%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Apr 6.20% 6.20% 6.20% 6.30%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y May P 1.90% 2.00% 2.20%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y May P 2.30% 2.40% 2.70%
    14:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Apr -3.10% 3.40%

     



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  • Trade Rhetoric Sours Sentiment Again as US-China Tensions Resurface

    Trade Rhetoric Sours Sentiment Again as US-China Tensions Resurface


    Market sentiment took another bearish turn today following renewed rhetoric from US President Donald Trump, who accused China of having “totally violated” its preliminary trade agreement with the U.S. The comments, delivered via social media, were echoed by Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in a CNBC interview, where he expressed concern over China’s delayed compliance. Greer emphasized that while the US had fulfilled its commitments under the temporary trade deal, China was “slow rolling” its response—raising fears that tensions between the two economic powers may be re-escalating.

    These remarks followed comments from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just a day earlier, who admitted that US-China trade talks were “a bit stalled,” though he hinted at possible high-level engagement in the coming weeks. However, the combined messaging from senior officials now points to growing frustration in Washington, increasing the risk of a renewed tariff cycle. That’s something the markets are highly sensitive to, especially with ongoing legal uncertainty surrounding the court-blocked reciprocal tariffs and their pending appeal.

    On the macro front, the US April core PCE price index ticked down to 2.5% year-on-year, reaffirming that disinflation is progressing, albeit slowly. With inflation trending lower but global uncertainty mounting, Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady in the near term. Fed funds futures currently price in a 95% chance of a hold at the June FOMC meeting and a 73% chance of another hold in July. The soft inflation reading does little to shift the central bank’s cautious stance, especially as trade risks remain firmly in focus.

    In the currency markets, Dollar is heading into the final house of the trading week as the strongest performer, followed by Swiss Franc and Euro. On the weaker end, Aussie struggles at the bottom, trailed by Yen and Loonie. Kiwi and Sterling are holding in the middle. However, with sentiment remaining fragile and trade headlines still in play, positioning could shift quickly before the weekly close.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.55%. DAX is up 0.72%. CAC is up 0.09%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.21 at 4.672. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.019 at 2.529. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.22%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.20%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.47%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.57%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.015 to 1.505.

    US core PCE inflation cools to 2.5%, income surges

    US headline PCE price index rose 0.1% mom in April, in line with expectations, while annual inflation slipped from 2.3% yoy to 2.1% yoy, below the consensus of 2.2%.

    Core PCE, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, also rose 0.1% mom and slowed from 2.6% yoy to 2.5% yoy, matching expectations. The data supports the view that disinflation remains intact, though the pace of moderation remains modest.

    At the same time, personal income data surprised to the upside, jumping 0.8% mom or USD 210.1B, well above the expected 0.3% mom. Personal spending rose a more modest 0.2% mom, matching forecasts.

    Canada GDP expands 0.1% mom in March, another 0.1% mom in April

    Canada’s GDP grew by 0.1% mom in March, in line with market expectations. Strength in goods-producing industries continued to support overall output. The sector expanded by 0.2%, marking its second lead contribution in the past three months.

    Services-producing industries also edged higher by 0.1%. In total, 9 out of 20 sectors posted growth.

    Looking ahead, preliminary data from Statistics Canada suggests another 0.1% increase in real GDP for April.

    ECB’s Panetta signals diminished room for further rate cuts

    Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said today that while the central bank has made meaningful progress in easing monetary policy, bringing the deposit rate down from 4% to 2.25%, “the room for further rate cuts has naturally diminished”.

    “However, the economic outlook remains weak, and trade tensions could lead to a deterioration,” he added. “It will be essential to maintain a pragmatic and flexible approach, considering liquidity conditions and the signals coming from financial and credit markets.”

    Panetta also highlighted the high-stakes nature of ongoing trade talks between the EU and the US, warning that even tensions are likely to have a “significant impact” on the region’s economy.

    BoE’s Taylor: Global headwinds justify lower monetary policy path

    BoE MPC member Alan Taylor reinforced his dovish position in an interview with the Financial Times, highlighting growing downside risks to the UK economy from global developments.

    Taylor, who alongside Swati Dhingra voted for a larger 50bps rate cut in May, argued that monetary policy should be on a “lower policy path” given the accumulating headwinds.

    He specifically pointed to impact of Trump’s tariffs on imports would “be building up over the rest of this year in terms of trade diversion and drag on growth”.

    While UK inflation unexpectedly jumped to 3.5% in April, Taylor downplayed the significance of the rise, attributing it to “one-time tax and administered price changes.”

    Swiss KOF rises to 98.5, but growth outlook remains subdued

    Switzerland’s KOF Economic Barometer edged up to 98.5 in May from 97.1, marking a modest improvement in economic sentiment. While the uptick is a positive signal, the barometer remains below its long-term average, suggesting that the broader outlook for the Swiss economy “remains subdued”.

    According to the KOF, the manufacturing sector showed notable strength, contributing to the overall improvement. However, indicators tied to foreign demand and private consumption remain under pressure, highlighting the ongoing drag from weak external conditions and cautious domestic spending.

    Japan’s industrial production falls -0.9% mom in April, but May rebound expected

    Japan’s industrial production fell by -0.9% mom in April, a milder decline than the expected -1.4%. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its view that production “fluctuates indecisively,” reflecting ongoing uncertainty, particularly around global trade developments.

    While the ministry said the impact of US tariffs was limited in April, some firms have voiced concern about the manufacturing outlook as policy risks persist.

    The breakdown of the data shows a mixed picture: six of 15 industrial sectors saw declines, including production machinery, fabricated metals, and transport equipment excluding motor vehicles. However, eight sectors recorded gains, with electronic parts and business-oriented machinery showing notable strength.

    Manufacturers surveyed expect a sharp 9.0% rebound in May, followed by a -3.4% dip in June.

    Also released, Japan’s retail sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 3.3% yoy in April, outpacing the consensus of 2.9% yoy. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5%.

    Tokyo core inflation accelerates to 3.6%, driven by food and services costs

    Tokyo’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 3.6% yoy in May, up from 3.4% yoy and above market expectations of 3.5% yoy, marking the fastest pace since January 2023. This marks the third consecutive year that core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

    While headline CPI ticked down slightly from 3.5% yoy to 3.4% yoy, the underlying core-core measure (excluding food and energy) also edged up fro 2.0% yoy to 2.1% yoy, suggesting broad-based inflation persistence.

    The surge in non-fresh food prices, up 6.9% yoy, remains a dominant driver—highlighted by a staggering 93.2% yoy jump in rice prices.

    Another notable development is the uptick in services inflation, which climbed to 2.2% yoy from 2.0% yoy , indicating that businesses are beginning to pass on higher labor costs.

    Australia retail sales down -0.1% mom in April, weighed by weak clothing demand

    Australia’s retail sales turnover unexpectedly declined by -0.1% mom in April, missing expectations for a 0.3% mom rise. On an annual basis, sales were up 3.8% compared to April 2024/

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics noted that the decline was driven primarily by reduced spending on clothing. The weakness was partly offset by a rebound in Queensland, where businesses recovered from disruptions caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March.

    RBNZ’s Silk: Data to guide timing and need for further cuts

    RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said that interest rates are currently within the estimated neutral band of 2.5% to 3.5%.

    She noted that the full impact of previous easing has yet to filter through the economy, making any future adjustments highly dependent on incoming data.

    The OCR track indicates “whatever we do is going to be data-dependent, and then we will be looking to the data to help us to decide when or if we cut further from here,” she added.

    USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8182; (P) 0.8265; (R1) 0.8312; More….

    Range trading continues in USD/CHF and intraday bias stays neutral. On the downside, break of 0.8187 will resume the fall from 0.8475 to retest 0.8038 low. On the upside, above 0.8346 will bring stronger rise to 0.8475. Firm break there will extend the corrective pattern from 0.8038 with another rising leg.

    In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8713) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Apr -15.60% 9.60% 10.70%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y May 3.40% 3.50%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May 3.60% 3.50% 3.40%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y May 2.10% 2%
    23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Apr 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P -0.90% -1.40% 0.20%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Apr 3.30% 2.90% 3.10%
    01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Apr -0.10% 0.30% 0.30%
    01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Apr 0.70% 0.50% 0.50%
    01:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Apr -5.70% 3.10% -8.80% -7.10%
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr -26.60% -18.30% 39.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr -1.10% 0.30% -0.20%
    07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer May 98.5 98.3 97.1
    08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Apr 3.90% 3.70% 3.60%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M May P 0.10% 0.10% 0.40%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y May P 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
    12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.10% 0.20% -0.20%
    12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Apr 0.80% 0.30% 0.50%
    12:30 USD Personal Spending M/M Apr 0.20% 0.20% 0.70%
    12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Apr 0.10% 0.10% 0%
    12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr 2.10% 2.20% 2.30%
    12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr 0.10% 0.10% 0%
    12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr 2.50% 2.50% 2.60%
    12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Apr P -87.6B -141.8B -162.0B -163.2B
    12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Apr P 0% 0.40% 0.50%
    13:45 USD Chicago PMI May 45.1 44.6
    14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment May F 50.8 50.8
    14:00 USD UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations May F 7.30% 7.30%

     



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  • Markets Turn Cautious Again on Trade Stalemates; Euro Picking Up Momentum in Some Crosses

    Markets Turn Cautious Again on Trade Stalemates; Euro Picking Up Momentum in Some Crosses


    Asian markets returned to a risk-off tone today, with investor sentiment once again weighed down by the lack of clarity on the US tariff front and the apparent stalling of key trade negotiations. The week’s earlier relief rally following the U.S. court ruling against President Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs has faded, as the legal battle drags on and policy direction remains uncertain. The result is renewed market hesitancy, with equities pulling back and safe-haven flows nudging Yen higher.

    In currency markets, the tone is cautious and directionless, with almost all major pairs and crosses confined to last week’s ranges. After a volatile stretch, there’s little momentum to drive breakouts. For the day, Yen is the strongest performer, supported by risk aversion, followed by the Dollar and Kiwi. On the weaker side, the Euro is underperforming, trailed by the Aussie and Sterling. Swiss Franc and Loonie are trading near the middle of the pack.

    Thursday’s session in the US captured this shifting mood well as stocks closed well off their intraday highs. That optimism was first driven by the US Court of International Trade’s ruling that struck down most of Trump’s global tariff orders. However, the relief was short-lived. The US Court of Appeals paused that ruling to consider the administration’s appeal, setting a new timeline for responses from both plaintiffs and the government in early June. The pause has restored uncertainty to a situation markets briefly hoped was resolved.

    Further dampening sentiment were remarks from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who confirmed that US-China trade talks are “a bit stalled.” He did, however, hold out the possibility of further engagement in the coming weeks, including a potential leader-level call. Still, Bessent acknowledged that the magnitude and complexity of the negotiations likely require direct involvement from both presidents, a signal that near-term breakthroughs remain unlikely.

    Technically, however, EUR/GBP’s break of 0.8400 minor resistance suggests short term bottoming at 0.8354, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. While the rebound might still be a corrective move, further rise is now in favor through 0.8458 resistance to 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -1.08%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.54%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.30%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.24%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.015 at 1.506. Overnight, DOW rose 0.28%. S&P 500 rose 0.40%. NASDAQ rose 0.39%. 10year yield fell -0.053 to 4.424.

    Looking ahead, Germany CPI flash is the main focus in European sess. Switzerland will publish KOF economic barometer. Eurozone will release M3 money supply. Later in the day, attention will be on Canada GDP, and US PCE inflation.

    Japan’s industrial production falls -0.9% mom in April, but May rebound expected

    Japan’s industrial production fell by -0.9% mom in April, a milder decline than the expected -1.4%. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its view that production “fluctuates indecisively,” reflecting ongoing uncertainty, particularly around global trade developments.

    While the ministry said the impact of US tariffs was limited in April, some firms have voiced concern about the manufacturing outlook as policy risks persist.

    The breakdown of the data shows a mixed picture: six of 15 industrial sectors saw declines, including production machinery, fabricated metals, and transport equipment excluding motor vehicles. However, eight sectors recorded gains, with electronic parts and business-oriented machinery showing notable strength.

    Manufacturers surveyed expect a sharp 9.0% rebound in May, followed by a -3.4% dip in June.

    Also released, Japan’s retail sales grew by a stronger-than-expected 3.3% yoy in April, outpacing the consensus of 2.9% yoy. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5%.

    Tokyo core inflation accelerates to 3.6%, driven by food and services costs

    Tokyo’s core CPI (excluding fresh food) accelerated to 3.6% yoy in May, up from 3.4% yoy and above market expectations of 3.5% yoy, marking the fastest pace since January 2023. This marks the third consecutive year that core inflation has exceeded the Bank of Japan’s 2% target.

    While headline CPI ticked down slightly from 3.5% yoy to 3.4% yoy, the underlying core-core measure (excluding food and energy) also edged up fro 2.0% yoy to 2.1% yoy, suggesting broad-based inflation persistence.

    The surge in non-fresh food prices, up 6.9% yoy, remains a dominant driver—highlighted by a staggering 93.2% yoy jump in rice prices.

    Another notable development is the uptick in services inflation, which climbed to 2.2% yoy from 2.0% yoy , indicating that businesses are beginning to pass on higher labor costs.

    Australia retail sales down -0.1% mom in April, weighed by weak clothing demand

    Australia’s retail sales turnover unexpectedly declined by -0.1% mom in April, missing expectations for a 0.3% mom rise. On an annual basis, sales were up 3.8% compared to April 2024/

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics noted that the decline was driven primarily by reduced spending on clothing. The weakness was partly offset by a rebound in Queensland, where businesses recovered from disruptions caused by ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred in March.

    RBNZ’s Silk: Data to guide timing and need for further cuts

    RBNZ Assistant Governor Karen Silk said that interest rates are currently within the estimated neutral band of 2.5% to 3.5%.

    She noted that the full impact of previous easing has yet to filter through the economy, making any future adjustments highly dependent on incoming data.

    The OCR track indicates “whatever we do is going to be data-dependent, and then we will be looking to the data to help us to decide when or if we cut further from here,” she added.

    Fed’s Logan: Policy well positioned, ready to respond to shifting risks

    Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said overnight that with inflation “trending gradually back to target”, the labor market “holding strong”, and risks to Fed’s dual mandate are “roughly balanced.

    Speaking at an event, Logan emphasized that “monetary policy is in a good place”, and there is no immediate need for a policy shift.

    Logan also highlighted the potential impact of fiscal policy and regulatory changes, noting they could stimulate investment and consumer demand, while elevated economic uncertainty or financial volatility might dampen activity.

    Fed’s Daly: Modestly or moderately restrictive policy still needed

    San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, in a Reuters interview, emphasized that above-target inflation remains her “focus” while the labor market is in “solid shape”.

    With inflation still running above the Fed’s 2% target and uncertainty around the pace of its decline, Daly said it’s appropriate for monetary policy to remain in a “modestly or moderately restrictive” stance to guide inflation back to target.

    Daly added that she’s closely watching for any signs of labor market weakening but hasn’t observed such signals yet. At the same time, she remains attentive to whether inflation continues to gradually ease or risks becoming sticky or re-accelerating.

    BoE’s Bailey stresses caution on rate cuts amid inflation surprises and trade uncertainty

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasized the need for a “gradual and careful” approach to future interest rate cuts in light of lingering global trade uncertainty and its impact on domestic inflation.

    His comments follow last week’s stronger-than-expected inflation data, which showed UK CPI jumping to 3.5% in April from 2.6%. Bailey noted it remains unclear how much of the increase is due to seasonal factors, and said the BoE will closely examine the next set of inflation data ahead of its June policy decision.

    Bailey acknowledged that while core inflation is “gradually grinding down”, the pace of improvement remains sluggish. He also highlighted a renewed rise in food price inflation, which—although not unique to the UK—has a significant influence on public inflation perceptions.

    EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7527; (P) 1.7591; (R1) 1.7709; More…

    EUR/AUD’s break of 1.7628 resistance argues that fall from 1.8554 might have completed as a correction at 1.7245. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 38.2% retracement of 1.8554 to 1.7245 at 1.7745. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 1.8054. On the downside, however, break of 1.7460 support will bring retest of 1.7245 instead.

    In the bigger picture, as long as 1.7062 resistance turned support (2023 high) holds, up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) should still be in progress. Break of 1.8554 will target 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.7062 from 1.5963 at 1.8744. However, sustained break of 1.7062 will confirm medium term topping and bring deeper fall back to 1.5963 support.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Apr -15.60% 9.60% 10.70%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Y/Y May 3.40% 3.50%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y May 3.60% 3.50% 3.40%
    23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core-Core Y/Y May 2.10% 2%
    23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Apr 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Apr P -0.90% -1.40% 0.20%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Apr 3.30% 2.90% 3.10%
    01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Apr -0.10% 0.30% 0.30%
    01:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Apr 0.70% 0.50% 0.50%
    01:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Apr -5.70% 3.10% -8.80% -7.10%
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Apr -26.60% -18.30% 39.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.30% -0.20%
    07:00 CHF KOF Economic Barometer May 98.3 97.1
    08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Apr 3.70% 3.60%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M May P 0.10% 0.40%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y May P 2.10% 2.10%
    12:30 CAD GDP M/M Mar 0.20% -0.20%
    12:30 USD Personal Income M/M Apr 0.30% 0.50%
    12:30 USD Personal Spending M/M Apr 0.20% 0.70%
    12:30 USD PCE Price Index M/M Apr 0.10% 0%
    12:30 USD PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr 2.20% 2.30%
    12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index M/M Apr 0.10% 0%
    12:30 USD Core PCE Price Index Y/Y Apr 2.50% 2.60%
    12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Apr P -141.8B -162.0B
    12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Apr P 0.40% 0.50%
    13:45 USD Chicago PMI May 45.1 44.6
    14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment May F 50.8 50.8
    14:00 USD UoM 1-year Inflation Expectations May F 7.30% 7.30%

     



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  • US Assets Remain Under Pressure; Sterling Gains Muted Despite Hot CPI

    US Assets Remain Under Pressure; Sterling Gains Muted Despite Hot CPI


    Dollar’s selloff moderated slightly during European session, but pressure on US assets remains firmly in place. DOW futures are down more than -300 points, while the 10-year Treasury yield has surged back above the 4.5% mark. Market sentiment continues to reflect unease over the US fiscal outlook and uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s trade stance. With the G7 finance ministers’ meeting underway, any hint that Washington may be aiming for a weaker currency will be closely scrutinized.

    In the UK, despite a hotter-than-expected CPI report, Sterling failed to extend gains beyond Dollar and weakened against most other majors. A particularly striking detail in the report was the 5.4% surge in services inflation, which surpassed BoE’s own forecast of 5.0%. On a monthly basis, services prices jumped 2.2% the largest monthly rise in 34 years.

    This supports recent remarks from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill, who argued that the pace of policy easing may be too fast given the structural persistence in wage and price-setting behavior. The CPI report has clearly dampened market expectations for a summer rate cut, with odds of an August move now down to 40%, compared to 60% before the data release.

    In the broader currency markets, Dollar remains the weakest performer so far today, trailed by Sterling and the Loonie. At the other end, Yen leads the pack amid safe-haven demand, followed by Swiss Franc and Euro. Aussie and Kiwi are trading in the middle.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.06%. DAX is down -0.28%. CAC is down -0.58%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.066 at 4.771. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.046 at 2.654. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.61%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.62%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.21%. Singapore Strait Times closed flat. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.002 to 1.521.

    UK CPI surges to 3.5% in April, core jumps to 3.8%

    UK inflation came in hotter than expected in April, with headline CPI rising 1.2% mom versus expectation f 1.1% mom. Annual CPI accelerated from 2.6% yoy to 3.5% yoy, above the 3% mark for the first time since March 2024.

    Core CPI, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, climbed sharply from 3.4% yoy to 3.8% yoy, its highest level since April 2024.

    Breakdowns show a sharp jump in both goods and services inflation. Goods inflation accelerated from 0.6% yoy to 1.7% yoy, while services inflation climbed from 4.7% yoy to 5.4% yoy , highlighting the strength of domestic price pressures.

    Japan’s US-bound exports fall -1.8% yoy as tariffs and strong Yen Bite

    .Japan’s export growth slowed to just 2.0% yoy in April, marking the weakest pace since October 2024.

    Notably, shipments to the US fell -1.8% yoy — the first decline in four months — as demand for automobiles, steel, and ships weakened. Exports of automobiles alone dropped -4.8% yoy by value, impacted by a stronger Yen and reduced demand for high-end models.

    The decline coincides with the imposition of 25% US tariffs on Japanese auto, steel, and aluminum exports, alongside the 10% blanket levy applied to most trade partners under the current US trade regime.

    Trade with Asia remained more resilient, with exports rising 6.0% yoy. However, shipments to China dipped -0.6% yoy.

    On the import side, Japan saw a -2.2% yoy contraction, resulting in a trade deficit of JPY -115.8B.

    Seasonally adjusted figures show a -2.7% mom drop in exports and a -1.4% mom drop in imports, with the adjusted trade deficit widening to JPY -409B.

    Australia’s leading index falls to 0.2%, growth pulse fades

    Australia’s Westpac Leading Index slowed from 0.5% to 0.2% in April, signaling a loss in growth momentum.

    According to Westpac, the above-trend growth seen earlier this year has “all but disappeared,” primarily due to rising global trade uncertainty and weaker commodity prices.

    While these external pressures dominate, domestic factors such as a slowing labor market and only modest support from interest rate cuts are also contributing to the loss of momentum.

    The overall picture suggests a stalling in the already tepid recovery, with GDP growth expected to reach just 1.9% by the end of 2025, well below historical averages.

    Following RBA’s recent 25bps rate cut to 3.85%, Westpac expects a cautious pause at the next policy meeting on July 7–8. The central bank is likely to await further clarity from the Q2 inflation data due at the end of July before considering additional easing.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3354; (P) 1.3375; (R1) 1.3414; More…

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD stays on the upside for the moment, with focus on 1.3433/42 key resistance zone. Decisive break there will confirm larger up trend resumption. Next near term target will be 61.8% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3442 from 1.3138 at 1.3593, and then 100% projection at 1.1.3874. On the downside, below 1.3333 minor support will delay the bullish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is still in progress. Decisive break of 1.3433 (2024 high) will confirm resumption. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Nevertheless, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.3124) will delay the bullish case and bring more consolidations first.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Apr 1426M 500M 970M 794M
    23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Apr -0.41T -0.19T -0.23T -0.29T
    01:00 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Apr -0.01% -0.11% -0.15%
    06:00 GBP CPI M/M Apr 1.20% 1.10% 0.30%
    06:00 GBP CPI Y/Y Apr 3.50% 3.30% 2.60%
    06:00 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Apr 3.80% 3.60% 3.40%
    06:00 GBP RPI M/M Apr 1.70% 1.50% 0.30%
    06:00 GBP RPI Y/Y Apr 4.50% 4.20% 3.20%
    12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Apr -0.40% 0.10% 0.00%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M 3.5M

     



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  • Loonie Lifts on Hot Core Inflation, But BoC Cut Still in Play

    Loonie Lifts on Hot Core Inflation, But BoC Cut Still in Play


    Canadian Dollar firmed modestly in early US trading after inflation data showed a sharper-than-expected pickup in core price pressures. While headline CPI slowed to 1.7% in April, the drop was largely due to a steep decline in energy prices. In contrast, underlying inflation picked up pace, with core measures such as CPI-median, trim, and common all rising more than expected, driven in part by higher grocery and travel costs.

    The market response was swift. Traders pared back expectations for a BoC rate cut at its June 4 meeting, with swaps now pricing in around a 48% chance, down from 65% prior to the release. Still, attention will now turn to Canada’s Q1 GDP report on May 30, which is likely to be the key data point in determining whether BoC will proceed with a cut or hold off amid resurging inflation pressures.

    In the currency markets, Loonie is currently leading gains for the day, followed by Swiss Franc and Yen. Meanwhile, Aussie is the day’s worst performer, weighed down by RBA’s dovish rate cut and downgrade in inflation and growth projections. Kiwi is the second weakest, and then Sterling. Euro and Dollar are positioning in the middle.

    Technically, however, USD/CAD is still bounded firmly inside range of 1.3898/4014. Further rise is still in favor and break of 1.4014 will resume the rebound from 1.3749 short term bottom to 1.4150 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.4791 to 1.3749 at 1.4147). However, firm break of 1.3898 will bring retest of 1.3749 low instead.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.72%. DAX is up 0.46%. CAC is up 0.71%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.039 at 4.704. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.013 at 2.606. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.08%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.49%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.38%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.16%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.035 to 1.523.

    Canada’s headline CPI slows to 1.7% on energy, but core measures jump

    Canada’s headline consumer inflation eased to 1.7% yoy in April, down from 2.3% yoy in March, slightly above the expected 1.6% yoy. The deceleration was primarily due to a steep drop in energy prices by -12.7% yoy, with gasoline down -18.1% yoy and natural gas falling -14.1% yoy. On a monthly basis, overall CPI declined by -0.1% mom.

    However, the details beneath the surface were less comforting for policymakers. Excluding energy, inflation actually accelerated, with CPI rising 2.9% yoy compared to 2.5% yoy in March.

    Moreover, all three core inflation measures rose notably. CPI-median rose from 2.9% yoy to 3.2%, above expectation of 2.9% yoy. CPI trimmed rose from 2.8% yoy to 3.1% yoy, above expectation of 2.8% yoy. CPI common jumped from 2.3% yoy to 2.5% yoy, above expectation of 2.3% yoy.

    BoE’s Pill: Quarterly rate cuts may be too rapid given increasing intrinsic inflation persistence

    BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill explained his vote to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at the May MPC meeting as a “skip” rather than a pause in the broader easing cycle.

    In speech today, Pill said that while disinflation remains on track, the pace of quarterly 25bps cuts since last summer may be ” too rapid” given current inflation dynamics.

    He expressed particular concern that structural changes in wage and price-setting behavior have heightened the “intrinsic persistence” of inflation in the UK.

    As a result, Pill argued that a more cautious approach to monetary easing is warranted, reinforcing the need to slow the pace of rate reductions while continuing the broader policy normalization.

    ECB’s Schnabel: Disinflation on track, steady hand needed amid new shocks

    ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said the Eurozone’s disinflation process remains on track, but “new shocks” — particularly from trade tariffs — are presenting emerging risks.

    While tariffs may dampen inflation in the short term, Schnabel warned they pose medium-term upside risks, warranting a “steady hand” in monetary policy.

    She emphasized the importance of not overlooking “supply-side shocks” if they appear persistent, as doing so could risk “de-anchoring inflation expectations”.

    Schnabel also highlighted the Eurozone’s relative resilience following the tariff escalation on April 2, noting Euro’s appreciation and a shift in perception toward the region as a “safe haven.” She characterized this as a “historical opportunity” to strengthen the international role of Euro.

    ECB’s Knot: June rate cut possible, but not confirmed

    Dutch ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said today that a rate cut at the June meeting remains on the table but is far from a done deal.

    “I can’t exclude we will decide to have another rate cut in June, but I also can’t confirm it,” he told reporters, emphasizing that ECB must remain focused on medium- to long-term inflation risks rather than short-term fluctuations.

    Knot said the new staff projections next month will incorporate scenarios reflecting the impact of recent US trade policies and potential EU countermeasures.

    While the outlook may show lower inflation in 2025 and 2026, the bigger concern lies beyond that window, given the longer-term effects of tariff-related distortions. “It is more interesting to see what happens after that period,” he noted.

    RBA cuts rates to 3.85%, lowers 2025 growth and inflation forecasts

    RBA delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, lowering the cash rate to 3.85%. In its statement, RBA said the risks to inflation had become “more balanced,” with headline inflation now within the target range and upside pressures “appear to have diminished” amid deteriorating global economic conditions.

    Still, the central bank remains cautious, citing significant uncertainty around both demand and supply dynamics, as well as the evolving impact of global trade tensions and geopolitical developments.

    The Board acknowledged a “severe downside scenario” and emphasized that monetary policy is “well placed” to respond decisively if global shocks materially affect Australia’s outlook. RBA flagged the unpredictability of global tariff policies and noted that households and businesses may hold back on spending amid heightened uncertainty. These concerns have contributed to a weaker outlook across growth, employment, and inflation.

    In its revised forecasts, RBA downgraded GDP growth for 2025 to 1.9% (from 2.1%) and for 2026 to 2.2% (from 2.3%). End-2025 headline CPI was revised down to 3.0% from 3.7%, with end-2026 projection lifted from 2.8% to 2.9%. Trimmed mean forecasts for the end-2025 and end 2026 were both cut slightly from 2.7% to 2.6%.

    RBA’s Bullock: Debated 25 vs 50bps cut debated; trade risks tilt toward disinflation

    Following RBA’s decision, Governor Michele Bullock revealed in the post-meeting press conference that the Board briefly considered holding rates but quickly moved to debate between 25 and 50 basis point reductions.

    Ultimately, the more measured 25bps cut was preferred, given that inflation is within target and unemployment remains resilient. Bullock emphasized that while easing was justified, “it doesn’t rule out that we might need to take action in the future.”

    Bullock also noted that the Board views recent global trade developments as broadly “disinflationary” for Australia. However, she cautioned that risks remain tilted both ways.

    “There is a risk to inflation on the upside, trade policies could lead to supply chain issues, which could raise prices for some imports, much as we saw during the pandemic,” she emphasized.

    China cuts loan prime rates for first time in seven months

    China’s central bank lowered its key lending benchmarks for the first time since October, delivering a long-anticipated move to support the economy.

    PBoC lowered the one-year loan prime rate by 10 bps to 3.0%. The five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgages, was also trimmed by 10 bps to 3.5%.

    The October 2025 easing was more aggressive at 25 basis points, but today’s cuts still mark a meaningful step in the ongoing monetary support cycle.

    The move comes as part of a broader policy package unveiled by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng and top financial regulators ahead of high-level trade talks in Geneva that have since led to a temporary truce between China and the US on tariffs.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1180; (P) 1.1234; (R1) 1.1296; More…

    Range trading continues in EUR/USD and intraday bias remains neutral. On the upside, decisive break of 1.1292 resistance should indicate that correction from 1.1572 has already completed after defending 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1572 next. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will bring deeper decline to 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0818) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    01:15 CNY 1-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.00% 3.00% 3.10%
    04:30 CNY 5-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.60%
    04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.85% 3.85% 4.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Apr -0.60% -0.30% -0.70%
    06:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Apr -0.90% -0.60% -0.20%
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar 50.9B 35.9B 34.3B
    12:30 CAD CPI M/M Apr -0.10% -0.10% 0.30%
    12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Apr 1.70% 1.60% 2.30%
    12:30 CAD CPI Median Y/Y Apr 3.20% 2.90% 2.90%
    12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Apr 3.10% 2.80% 2.80%
    12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Apr 2.50% 2.30% 2.30%

     



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  • Aussie Dips on RBA’s Dovish Tilt, But Risk Sentiment Provides Cushion

    Aussie Dips on RBA’s Dovish Tilt, But Risk Sentiment Provides Cushion


    Aussie softened modestly following the RBA’s widely expected 25bps rate cut to 3.85%. But selling was contained as broader market sentiment remained supportive.

    While the move itself was no surprise, the updated economic forecasts leaned dovish, notably with headline CPI now seen at just 3.0% by year-end, down from the previous 3.7% projection. This downward revision in inflation opens the door for RBA to maintain a steady path of policy easing.

    More importantly, should global trade tensions re-escalate or downside risks materialize, especially from US tariff policy uncertainty, there is ample room for the central bank to accelerate its rate cuts.

    Despite the RBA’s dovish bias, Aussie found some footing amid steady risk sentiment. US equities shrugged off the initial shock from Moody’s credit rating downgrade, with major indexes finishing higher. Meanwhile, US 10-year yields also retreated from their earlier spike, indicating that investor appetite for Treasuries remains intact for now. Across Asia, sentiment was further bolstered by China’s latest easing move, with the PBoC cutting its key LPRs for the first time in seven months.

    Meanwhile, on the trade front, Japan is maintaining a firm stance in negotiations with the US. Top trade official Ryosei Akazawa reaffirmed that Tokyo would not rush into a deal at the expense of national interests. Japan continues to push for full tariff elimination, including automobiles, car parts, and metals. Talks with the US are ongoing at the working level, but no date has been set for a third ministerial meeting.

    Technically, AUD/NZD’s dip and break of 55 4H EMA today suggests that a short term top was formed at 1.0920, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Deeper retreat is now in favor to 38.2% retracement of 1.0649 to 1.0920 at 1.0816 to contain downside, at least on first attempt. However, firm break of 1.0816 will suggest near term reversal, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 1.0753 instead.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.25%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.29%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.38%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.19%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.039 at 1.527. Overnight, DOW rose 0.32%. S&P 500 rose 0.09%. NASDAQ rose 0.02%. 10-year yield rose 0.034 to 4.475.

    Looking ahead, Germany PPI is a focus in European session. Later in the day, attention will be on Canada CPI.

    RBA cuts rates to 3.85%, lowers 2025 growth and inflation forecasts

    RBA delivered a widely expected 25 bps rate cut, lowering the cash rate to 3.85%. In its statement, RBA said the risks to inflation had become “more balanced,” with headline inflation now within the target range and upside pressures “appear to have diminished” amid deteriorating global economic conditions.

    Still, the central bank remains cautious, citing significant uncertainty around both demand and supply dynamics, as well as the evolving impact of global trade tensions and geopolitical developments.

    The Board acknowledged a “severe downside scenario” and emphasized that monetary policy is “well placed” to respond decisively if global shocks materially affect Australia’s outlook. RBA flagged the unpredictability of global tariff policies and noted that households and businesses may hold back on spending amid heightened uncertainty. These concerns have contributed to a weaker outlook across growth, employment, and inflation.

    In its revised forecasts, RBA downgraded GDP growth for 2025 to 1.9% (from 2.1%) and for 2026 to 2.2% (from 2.3%). End-2025 headline CPI was revised down to 3.0% from 3.7%, with end-2026 projection lifted from 2.8% to 2.9%. Trimmed mean forecasts for the end-2025 and end 2026 were both cut slightly from 2.7% to 2.6%.

    China cuts loan prime rates for first time in seven months

    China’s central bank lowered its key lending benchmarks for the first time since October, delivering a long-anticipated move to support the economy.

    PBoC lowered the one-year loan prime rate by 10 bps to 3.0%. The five-year LPR, a key reference for mortgages, was also trimmed by 10 bps to 3.5%.

    The October 2025 easing was more aggressive at 25 basis points, but today’s cuts still mark a meaningful step in the ongoing monetary support cycle.

    The move comes as part of a broader policy package unveiled by PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng and top financial regulators ahead of high-level trade talks in Geneva that have since led to a temporary truce between China and the US on tariffs.

    SNB’s Schlegel: Inflation outlook unclear, negative rates remain on the table

    SNB Chair Martin Schlegel warned that the outlook for Swiss inflation remains highly uncertain and reiterated that the central bank could not rule out a return to negative interest rates.

    Speaking at an event overnight, Schlegel said while such rates were an extraordinary measure, they had previously achieved their intended effect when used between 2014 and 2022.

    “The uncertainty is currently enormous,” Schlegel said, citing volatility in both USD/CHF and EUR/CHF, adding that “investors are seeking a safe haven in stormy times,” which has put upward pressure on the Swiss franc.

    Separately, Schlegel addressed concerns about global asset shifts, emphasizing that US treasuries remain foundational to global markets despite rising uncertainty. “There’s no current or foreseeable alternative to U.S. treasuries,” he said, citing their liquidity and dominance.

    BoE’s Dhingra: Vote for bigger rate cut a signal of economic direction

    BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra explained her decision to vote for a larger 50bps rate cut at the May 8 meeting as a deliberate signal about the UK’s economic outlook.

    Speaking in an FT interview, Dhingra said she wanted to send a “more categorical statement about where I think the economy is headed,” noting that using such a larger move sparingly increases its impact on market expectations.

    Her vote, along with Alan Taylor’s, diverged from the majority who supported a more measured 25bps cut.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6415; (P) 0.6440; (R1) 0.6482; More…

    AUD/USD dips mildly today but stays in range of 0.6356/6511. Intraday bias remains neutral and further rise is in favor. One the upside, break of 0.6511 will resume the rise from 0.5913 and target 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, firm break of 0.6356 will bring deeper pullback to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283 first.

    In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6438) holds, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    01:15 CNY 1-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.00% 3.00% 3.10%
    04:30 CNY 5-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.50% 3.50% 3.60%
    04:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.85% 3.85% 4.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Apr -0.30% -0.70%
    06:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Apr -0.60% -0.20%
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Mar 35.9B 34.3B
    12:30 CAD CPI M/M Apr -0.10% 0.30%
    12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Apr 1.60% 2.30%
    12:30 CAD CPI Median Y/Y Apr 2.90% 2.90%
    12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.80%
    12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Apr 2.30% 2.30%

     



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  • Dollar Steadies After Early Weakness, Focus Turns to Australia Jobs Data

    Dollar Steadies After Early Weakness, Focus Turns to Australia Jobs Data


    Dollar faced broad selling pressure throughout the Asian and European sessions but has since found some footing as markets transition into the US trading day. However, direction remains murky, with traders appearing undecided on whether to push the greenback higher or extend the recent pullback. A similar tone of uncertainty is mirrored in equities, as European indexes drift sideways and US futures show little conviction. With no major catalysts in the immediate pipeline, both FX and equity markets are likely to stay range-bound until fresh data offers clearer cues.

    Attention now turns to Thursday’s key releases, including Australia’s April employment report and the UK’s GDP figures. While Australia’s stronger-than-expected Q1 wage price index suggested some resilience in pay growth, the detail showed continued moderation in the private sector. This is unlikely to derail RBA’s expected rate cut next week, as the central bank remains focused on cushioning the economy from tariff-related risks. The upcoming April employment data will be more telling—especially if it deviates significantly from the expected 20.9k job growth and 4.1% unemployment rate. A downside surprise could fuel speculation of faster easing later this year.

    Technically, AUD/USD has struggled to establish momentum, despite a supportive risk-on backdrop. Even if a short-term rally resumes, 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548 is likely to provide strong resistance to bring at least a near term pullback.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.09%. DAX is down -0.18%. CAC is down -0.29%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.039 at 4.715. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.005 at 2.686. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.14%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.30%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.86%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.26%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.008 to 1.457.

    Fed’s Goolsbee urges patience amid ‘dusty’ data and tariff uncertainty

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee cautioned against overinterpreting April’s softer inflation data, noting on NPR that it’s still too early to gauge the true impact of rising US import tariffs.

    While recent consumer price figures suggest inflation may be easing, Goolsbee stressed that Fed needs more clarity before making firm policy judgments, describing the current environment as one filled with “a lot of dust in the air.”

    He acknowledged that the data so far “suggest that it’s going okay,” but emphasized the difficulty of drawing long-term conclusions amid ongoing short-term volatility.

    “It’s just not realistic,” he said, “to expect businesses or central banks to be jumping to conclusions” in such an uncertain setting.

    ECB’s Nagel stresses Dollar’s global role, cautious on tariff impact ahead of June decision

    German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel emphasized the continued importance of the Dollar as a global reserve currency during remarks today. At the same time, he expected that Euro would gradually play a stronger role in the international financial system over the coming years.

    Looking ahead to ECB’s June policy meeting, Nagel reiterated that the interest rate decision will be guided by incoming data. He acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the impact of US tariffs on inflation and growth within the Eurozone.

    The updated ECB staff projections, due next month, would be essential in shaping the decision. Nagel also stressed that central banks must increasingly adapt to operating in an environment characterized by persistent geopolitical and policy-driven uncertainty.

    BoE hawk Mann: Labor market resilient, and firms yet to lose pricing power

    BoE MPC member Catherine Mann explained her notable policy shift during an interview with CNBC, revealing why she moved from backing a 50bps rate cut in February to voting for a hold at last week’s meeting.

    Mann cited the UK labor market’s resilience as a key factor in her reassessment. While recent data suggest some moderation “a slowing labor market”, she argued that “it is not a non-linear adjustment.”

    Mann also flagged a new risk emerging from tariffs. She warned that rising US tariffs on countries like China could lead to an influx of diverted exports into markets such as the UK. While this could temporarily ease goods prices at the border, she cautioned that domestic retailers may use the opportunity to rebuild profit margins, keeping upward pressure on consumer price inflation rather than alleviating it.

    Crucially, Mann emphasized the need to see a broad-based “loss of pricing power” in firms. “I need to see that firms are starting to be much more moderate in setting their prices across a broad range of products,” she added. “Goods price inflation is actually going up, not down.”

    Japan’s PPI rises 4% yoy in April, record high for 8th straight month

    Japan’s PPI rose 4.0% year-on-year in April, easing slightly from 4.3% yoy in March and matching market expectations. Despite the modest slowdown, the index climbed to a fresh record high of 126.3, marking the eighth consecutive month of new highs, highlighting persistent cost pressures at the wholesale level.

    However, the data also showed little immediate impact from the sweeping US tariffs announced in early April, thanks in part to the 90-day suspension.

    Japan’s Yen-based import price index fell sharply by -7.2% yoy in April, following a -2.4% yoy decline in March. The drop suggests that Yen’s appreciation during the market turmoil have helped shield Japanese importers from some of the price shocks, at least for now.

    Australian wage growth accelerates to 3.4% yoy in Q1, led by public sector

    Australia’s Wage Price Index rose by 0.9% qoq in Q1, slightly above market expectations of 0.8% qoq. Public sector saw a stronger 1.0% qoq gain, outpacing the 0.9% qoq rise in private sector.

    On an annual basis, wages grew by 3.4%, up from 3.2% in the previous quarter, marking the first uptick in annual wage growth since mid-2024.

    The uptick in annual wage growth was driven primarily by the public sector, which saw a notable increase to 3.6% yoy from 2.9% yoy in Q4. Private sector wage growth was steady at 3.3% yoy.

    USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8367; (P) 0.8415; (R1) 0.8442; More….

    Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment. On the downside, firm break of 0.8333 resistance turned support will argue that corrective rebound from 0.8038 has completed at 0.8475, after rejection by 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 0.8184, and then retest of 0.8038 low. However, sustained trading above 0.8482 will dampen this bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8756 next.

    In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8750) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Apr 4.00% 4.00% 4.20% 4.30%
    01:30 AUD Wage Price Index Q/Q Q1 0.90% 0.80% 0.70%
    06:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Apr F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
    06:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Apr F 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
    12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Mar -4.10% 1.00% 2.90% 4.90%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -2.0M -2.0M

     



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  • Retraces from four-month high above 196.50

    Retraces from four-month high above 196.50


    • GBP/JPY retraces to near 194.45 from the four-month high of 196.50 as the Japanese Yen outperforms.
    • BoJ’s Uchida expressed confidence in more interest rate hikes ahead.
    • The UK economy is expected to have grown strongly by 0.6% in the January-March period.

    The GBP/JPY pair corrects to near 194.45 during European trading hours on Wednesday from its four-month high of 196.40 posted earlier in the day. The cross retraces sharply as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens across the board after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that hopes of further interest rate hikes are still alive despite global economic uncertainty in the wake of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump.

    Japanese Yen PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.32% -0.21% -0.98% -0.00% 0.04% -0.12% -0.41%
    EUR 0.32% 0.12% -0.66% 0.32% 0.36% 0.18% -0.09%
    GBP 0.21% -0.12% -0.80% 0.20% 0.24% 0.06% -0.21%
    JPY 0.98% 0.66% 0.80% 0.98% 1.02% 0.84% 0.56%
    CAD 0.00% -0.32% -0.20% -0.98% 0.04% -0.12% -0.40%
    AUD -0.04% -0.36% -0.24% -1.02% -0.04% -0.16% -0.45%
    NZD 0.12% -0.18% -0.06% -0.84% 0.12% 0.16% -0.28%
    CHF 0.41% 0.09% 0.21% -0.56% 0.40% 0.45% 0.28%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

    Japan’s underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations are likely to temporarily stagnate. But even during that period, wages are expected to continue rising as Japan’s job market is very tight, Uchida said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

    Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades calmly ahead of the flash United Kingdom (UK) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to have expanded at a robust pace of 0.6%, compared to 0.1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024.

    On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates further as the UK labor market has cooled down. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.5%, as expected, from 4.4% in the three months ending February. In the same period, the economy added 112K fresh workers, significantly lower than the prior release of 206K.

    GBP/JPY struggles to extend its upside above the horizontal resistance plotted from the March 27 high of 196.00. However, the outlook of the cross is still bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher, which trades around 192.32.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retraces to near 60.00 from 67.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above the 60.00 level.

    The pair could extend its upside to near the January 7 high of 198.26 and the psychological level of 200.00 after breaking above the four-month high of 196.40.

    On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the May 6 low of 190.33 will expose it to the March 11 low of 188.80, followed by the February 7 low of 187.00.

    GBP/JPY daily chart

     

     

    Economic Indicator

    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.


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  • Dollar Eases as Trade Boost Fades, Sterling Finds Support on Wages and BoE Rhetoric

    Dollar Eases as Trade Boost Fades, Sterling Finds Support on Wages and BoE Rhetoric


    Dollar softened slightly in early US trading today, though the move appears more related to a fading post-trade-deal rally than any direct reaction to economic data. While April’s inflation report showed encouraging progress on headline disinflation, the core CPI reading held firm, suggesting underlying price pressures remain sticky. That dynamic should keep Fed cautious, and today’s market reaction suggests the data did little to shift expectations meaningfully. The more optimistic takeaway, however, is that recent tariffs have yet to significantly lift inflation.

    In contrast, Sterling is gaining some traction, particularly against Euro, following solid UK wage data. Despite signs of softening in overall employment, wage growth remains robust, with average earnings still running well above levels consistent with BoE’s 2% inflation target. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill reinforced that concern by warning that more aggressive or sustained policy action may be needed to bring inflation under control. His remarks have helped underpin Sterling sentiment.

    Overall in the currency markets, Aussie has overtaken Dollar to become the week’s top performer. Kiwi and Loonie are also firm. At the other end of the spectrum, Yen continues to struggle, while Swiss Franc and Euro are also soft.

    Technically, GBP/JPY is now pressing 195.95 resistance as rise from 184.35 extends. Decisive break of 195.95 will argue that choppy fall from 199.79 has completed at 184.35 already. More importantly, rise from 180.00 might then be ready to resume through 199.79 in this bullish case.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.05%. DAX is up 0.17%. CAC is up 0.23%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.021 at 4.671. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.013 at 2.666. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 1.43%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.87%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.17%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.06 to 1.449.

    US CPI hits four year low at 2.3%, but core inflation holds steady at 2.8%

    US headline CPI rose just 0.2% mom, below the expected 0.3% mom. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also increased by 0.2%, undershooting forecasts of 0.3% mom.

    On an annual basis, headline inflation eased to 2.3% yoy from 2.4% yoy, the lowest rate since April 2021. Core inflation held steady at 2.8% yoy, in line with expectations.

    Shelter remained the key driver of monthly inflation, rising 0.3% mom and accounting for over half of the total increase.

    Energy prices also ticked higher by 0.7% mom, while food prices declined slightly by -0.1% mom. On a year-over-year basis, energy costs dropped by -3.7%, helping to keep overall inflation in check, while food prices rose 2.8%.

    BoE’s Pill: May require more aggressive and persistent effort to bring down inflation

    Speaking at a press conference today, BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that returning inflation to the BoE’s 2% target may prove more difficult than anticipated. Hence, Pill said the central bank may need to respond in a “somewhat more aggressive or more persistent” way to ensure inflation is brought under control within a reasonable time frame.

    He raised concerns that recent shifts in wage and price-setting behavior might reflect a more “structural change”, drawing parallels with inflation dynamics of the 1970s and 1980s.

    Pill emphasized that investors should not interpret BoE’s latest forecast, showing inflation returning to target by early 2027 based on market-implied rates, as a clear endorsement of future rate cuts.

    Instead, he pointed to the Bank’s more inflationary risk scenario, which assumed persistently weak productivity and stronger wage pressures. These conditions, he said, echo past inflation crises, where elevated price levels triggered repeated and entrenched pay demands.

    Last week, Pill voted against the BoE’s quarter-point rate cut, aligning with fellow hawk Catherine Mann in preferring to keep rates unchanged.

    UK payrolled employment falls -33k, wage growth remains elevated

    UK labor market data for April showed signs of softening in employment but continued strength in wage growth. Payrolled employment fell by -33k (-0.1% mom), while the claimant count rose by 5.2k. Median monthly pay rose by 6.4% yoy in April, accelerating from 5.9% yoy in the previous month.

    In the three months to March, unemployment rate in the three months to March edged up from 4.4% to 4.5%, in line with expectations and marking the highest level since late 2021.

    Average earnings including bonuses rose 5.5% yoy, beating expectations of 5.2% yoy. Earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.6% yoy, slightly below forecast of 5.7% yoy.

    German ZEW economic sentiment surges on stabilizing domestic politics and trade progress

    Investor sentiment in Germany and the wider Eurozone improved sharply in May, with ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for Germany jumping from -14.0 to 25.2, well above the expected 9.8. Eurozone sentiment followed suit, rising from -18.5 to 11.6, also beating expectations.

    According to ZEW President Achim Wambach, the rebound reflects growing optimism tied to easing trade tensions, a new German government, and stabilizing inflation, helping to offset last month’s sharp deterioration.

    However, views on current conditions remain deeply negative. Germany’s Current Situation Index edged down further from -81.2 to -82.0, missing forecasts. Eurozone’s improved modestly but still stood at -42.2. This divergence suggests that while expectations for the months ahead are improving, near-term economic conditions remain fragile, particularly in Germany.

    BoJ’s Uchida sees temporary inflation pause, but wage growth to persist

    BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said today that while Japan’s underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations may “temporarily stagnate”, wage growth is expected to remain firm as “Japan’s job market is very tight.”

    He added that companies are likely to continue “passing on rising labour and transportation costs by increasing prices”.

    Uchida also stressed that BoJ will assess the economic impact of US trade policy “without pre-conception,” acknowledging the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the global outlook.

    BoJ opinions: Sees tariff risks but maintains flexible rate-hike stance

    BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its April 30–May 1 meeting revealed a generally cautious view on the impact of US tariffs, with board members acknowledging the potential economic damage but not seeing it as enough to derail the pursuit of the 2% inflation target.

    One member noted that BoJ may enter a “temporary pause” in rate hikes due to weaker US growth. But it’s emphasized that “it shouldn’t be too pessimistic”.

    The member emphasized that rate hikes could resume if conditions improve or US policy shifts.

    Other opinions highlighted the high level of uncertainty facing Japan’s economic and price outlook, driven largely by global trade tensions. One board member noted the policy path “may change at any time.”

    Another reaffirmed that there has been “no change to the BoJ’s rate-hike stance”, as projections continue to show inflation reaching the 2% target and real interest rates remain deeply negative.

    Australian Westpac consumer sentiment rises to 92.1, weak confidence supports RBA cut

    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.2% to 92.1 in May, partially recovering from April’s sharp decline triggered by trade-related uncertainty.

    Westpac attributed the modest rebound to stronger financial markets and a decisive outcome in the Federal election. However, sentiment remains subdued, with the index still 3.9% below its March level and firmly in pessimistic territory.

    With all key inflation measures now back within the 2–3% target range, Westpac expects RBA to cut the cash rate by another 25bps to 3.85%. The combination of soft domestic sentiment and a more “unsettled and threatening global backdrop” strengthens the case for further easing.

    Australia’s NAB business conditions weaken to 2, profit pressures mount

    Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index edged up from -3 to -1 in April. However, the underlying Business Conditions Index slipped from 3 to 2. Trading conditions eased from 6 to 5, while profitability dropped sharply from 0 to -4, highlighting the ongoing strain on margins.

    Purchase cost growth accelerated to 1.7% in quarterly equivalent terms, up from 1.4%. Labor cost growth remained elevated at 1.6%. Rising input costs appear to be eroding profitability, with businesses struggling to pass through the full extent of these increases. This was reflected in modest increases in final product and retail price growth, which rose to 0.8% and 1.4% respectively—still below the pace of input cost growth.

    NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld noted that weaker profitability was at the core of the drop in business conditions, aligning with the uptick in purchase costs and softer trading performance.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1022; (P) 1.1132; (R1) 1.1199; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD is turned neutral first with current recovery. Overall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.1380 will suggest that the correction from 1.1572 has completed, and bring retest of 1.1572. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will dampen this view and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0789) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
    23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Apr 0.50% 0.60% 0.80%
    00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence May 2.20% -6%
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Apr 2 4
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Apr -1 -3
    06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Apr 5.2K 22.3K 18.7K -16.9K
    06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar 4.50% 4.50% 4.40%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Mar 5.50% 5.20% 5.60% 5.70%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Mar 5.60% 5.70% 5.90%
    09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment May 25.2 9.8 -14
    09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation May -82 -77 -81.2
    09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May 11.6 -4.4 -18.5
    10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index Apr 95.8 94.5 97.4
    12:30 USD CPI M/M Apr 0.20% 0.30% -0.10%
    12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.30% 2.40% 2.40%
    12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Apr 0.20% 0.30% 0.10%
    12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.80% 2.80%

     



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  • Fed Cut Bets Recede Ahead of US CPI, Dollar Approaches Key Resistance

    Fed Cut Bets Recede Ahead of US CPI, Dollar Approaches Key Resistance


    Global equity markets surged overnight in response to the breakthrough US-China tariff truce, with risk appetite roaring back across the board. DOW jumped more than 1100 points, while S&P 500 and NASDAQ surged 3.26% and 4.35%, respectively. The relief rally extended into Europe, where Germany’s DAX surged to a new record high, reflecting broad optimism that trade tensions have eased significantly—at least for now. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei jumped nearly 1.8% in early trading as it played catch-up, though the boost faded in Hong Kong where HSI turned lower, signaling some regional caution.

    In the currency markets, however, the initial momentum has slowed. Dollar remains the strongest currency for the week so far, supported by rising Treasury yields and expectations that Fed will maintain its high interest rate longer. Commodity currencies like the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars are also holding firm, buoyed by improved risk sentiment. Meanwhile, Yen and European majors continue to lag.

    The attention now shifts to today’s US April CPI release, which will be the first major inflation print since the April tariff escalation and the subsequent truce. Although the immediate impact of tariffs may not be fully visible yet, any upside surprise could reinforce Fed’s message of caution. While that may further support Dollar, it’s unlikely to significantly dampen the broader risk-on mood, given that markets have already recalibrated expectations following the trade deal.

    Indeed, Fed fund futures have responded decisively to the latest developments. A week ago, markets were pricing in a 74% chance of a July rate cut. That probability has now dropped sharply to 41% in the wake of the tariff truce. This suggests that traders have already priced in a “higher for longer” Fed policy stance, reducing the likelihood of any sudden repricing unless inflation data comes in meaningfully above expectations.

    Technically, with yesterday’s strong rally, DXY will enter into a key resistance zone ahead, between 55 D EMA (now at 102.07) and 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60. For now, rebound from 97.92 is still seen as part of a correction to the fall from 110.17. Hence, strong resistance should be seen from 102.07/60 to limit upside, at least on first attempt. However, sustained break of this zone will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 105.49 next.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.79%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.67%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.08%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.43%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.07 at 1.459. Overnight, DOW rose 2.81%. S&P 500 rose 3.26%. NASDAQ rose 4.35%. 10-year yield rose 0.082 to 4.457.

    Looking ahead, UK employment data and German ZEW economic sentiment will be the main feature in European session. Later in the day, US CPI is the center of focus.

    Fed’s Goolsbee warns tariff truce still carries stagflation risk

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee welcomed the weekend’s US-China tariff agreement as a step in the right direction but cautioned that its limited scope offers only modest relief.

    In an interview with the New York Times, he said the temporary 90-day reduction in tariffs would be “less impactful stagflationarily than the path they were on.”

    But that still represents a significant burden on the economy. With tariffs remaining three to five times higher than pre-trade war levels, Goolsbee warned the deal would still “make growth slower and make prices rise”, hallmarks of a stagflationary environment.

    Given the persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, Goolsbee reiterated his support for a wait-and-see approach on interest rates. He noted that the Trump administration’s statements acknowledge the temporary nature of the current truce. “It’s going to be revisited in the near future,” he said.

    BoE’s Taylor defends 50bps cut, cites perilous trade climate and weak demand

    BoE MPC member Alan Taylor explained his decision to vote for a 50bps rate cut last week, warning that both global and domestic conditions have deteriorated significantly.

    He pointed to a “quite perilous” international trade environment, driven in large part by broader-than-expected US tariffs. Also, “the erosion of confidence that we saw has continued”, he added, with low readings in business surveys like the PMI and REC, along with signs of increased precautionary saving and delayed investment.

    Taylor also called the recent UK-US trade deal “quite slender,” noting that most British exports will still face a 10% tariff, offering little near-term relief for exporters.

    Taylor warned that waiting for complete confirmation that all inflation pressures had eased before easing policy further could leave BoE behind the curve.

    ECB officials signal cautious path to June cut

    Latvian ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks indicated overnight that a rate cut in June remains a “pretty possible step,” aligning with market expectations, provided upcoming data confirms progress toward anchoring inflation around the 2% target.

    Kazaks added that “gradual cautious cuts could come upon the anchoring of inflation to around the 2% target.”

    Meanwhile, German and Spanish ECB members Joachim Nagel and Jose Luis Escriva added a note of caution in a joint interview, warning that US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies have clouded the economic outlook.

    “Regarding monetary-policy decisions, it is important to be cautious and not to overreact by overemphasizing specific announcements that could change shortly afterwards,” Nagel emphasized.

    BoJ’s Uchida sees temporary inflation pause, but wage growth to persist

    BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida said today that while Japan’s underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations may “temporarily stagnate”, wage growth is expected to remain firm as “Japan’s job market is very tight.”

    He added that companies are likely to continue “passing on rising labour and transportation costs by increasing prices”.

    Uchida also stressed that BoJ will assess the economic impact of US trade policy “without pre-conception,” acknowledging the high degree of uncertainty surrounding the global outlook.

    BoJ opinions: Sees tariff risks but maintains flexible rate-hike stance

    BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from its April 30–May 1 meeting revealed a generally cautious view on the impact of US tariffs, with board members acknowledging the potential economic damage but not seeing it as enough to derail the pursuit of the 2% inflation target.

    One member noted that BoJ may enter a “temporary pause” in rate hikes due to weaker US growth. But it’s emphasized that “it shouldn’t be too pessimistic”.

    The member emphasized that rate hikes could resume if conditions improve or US policy shifts.

    Other opinions highlighted the high level of uncertainty facing Japan’s economic and price outlook, driven largely by global trade tensions. One board member noted the policy path “may change at any time.”

    Another reaffirmed that there has been “no change to the BoJ’s rate-hike stance”, as projections continue to show inflation reaching the 2% target and real interest rates remain deeply negative.

    Australian Westpac consumer sentiment rises to 92.1, weak confidence supports RBA cut

    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index rose 2.2% to 92.1 in May, partially recovering from April’s sharp decline triggered by trade-related uncertainty.

    Westpac attributed the modest rebound to stronger financial markets and a decisive outcome in the Federal election. However, sentiment remains subdued, with the index still 3.9% below its March level and firmly in pessimistic territory.

    With all key inflation measures now back within the 2–3% target range, Westpac expects RBA to cut the cash rate by another 25bps to 3.85%. The combination of soft domestic sentiment and a more “unsettled and threatening global backdrop” strengthens the case for further easing.

    Australia’s NAB business conditions weaken to 2, profit pressures mount

    Australia’s NAB Business Confidence Index edged up from -3 to -1 in April. However, the underlying Business Conditions Index slipped from 3 to 2. Trading conditions eased from 6 to 5, while profitability dropped sharply from 0 to -4, highlighting the ongoing strain on margins.

    Purchase cost growth accelerated to 1.7% in quarterly equivalent terms, up from 1.4%. Labor cost growth remained elevated at 1.6%. Rising input costs appear to be eroding profitability, with businesses struggling to pass through the full extent of these increases. This was reflected in modest increases in final product and retail price growth, which rose to 0.8% and 1.4% respectively—still below the pace of input cost growth.

    NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld noted that weaker profitability was at the core of the drop in business conditions, aligning with the uptick in purchase costs and softer trading performance.

    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8367; (P) 0.8421; (R1) 0.8512; More….

    USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.8038 is still seen as a corrective move. Strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 to 0.8038 at 0.8482 to limit upside. Break of 0.8330 resistance turned support will turn intraday bias will turn bias back to the downside. Further break of 0.8184 will bring retest of 0.8038 low. However, sustained trading above 0.8482 will dampen this bearish view and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8756 next.

    In the bigger picture, long term down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) is still in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9200 at 0.8079 already. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.8750) holds. Sustained break of 0.8079 will target 100% projection at 0.7382.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY BoJ Summary of Opinions
    23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Apr 0.50% 0.60% 0.80%
    00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence May 2.20% -6%
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Apr 2 4
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Apr -1 -3
    06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Apr 22.3K 18.7K
    06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Mar 4.50% 4.40%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Mar 5.20% 5.60%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Mar 5.70% 5.90%
    09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment May 9.8 -14
    09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation May -77 -81.2
    09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment May -4.4 -18.5
    10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index Apr 94.5 97.4
    12:30 USD CPI M/M Apr 0.30% -0.10%
    12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Apr 2.40% 2.40%
    12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Apr 0.30% 0.10%
    12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.80%

     



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  • Risk Assets Soar as US-China Tariff Rollback Surpasses Expectations

    Risk Assets Soar as US-China Tariff Rollback Surpasses Expectations


    Global risk markets surged after the surprising breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations delivered results far beyond market expectations. Just days ago, hopes were low, with even the mere continuation of talks seen as a positive development. Investors had braced for a possible breakdown or at best, a symbolic gesture of engagement. Instead, both countries announced a major easing of tariffs, offering a rare dose of optimism to fragile global sentiment.

    The agreement will see tariffs lowered on both sides for a 90-day period. Specifically, the US will cut its tariffs on Chinese goods from 125% to 30%, while China will reduce its duties on US goods from 125% to just 10%. The gap reflects the US’s decision to maintain a 20% base tariff linked to concerns about fentanyl imports. Still, the rollback represents a major de-escalation.

    In a joint statement, both governments emphasized the intention to continue discussions in a “spirit of mutual openness” and “cooperation,” with follow-up meetings already being planned. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed he expects to meet Chinese officials again in the coming weeks to build on the momentum.

    In the currency markets, Dollar is the strongest performer of the day. Commodity-linked currencies including the Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are also advancing. In contrast, Yen is under significant pressure while. European majors are also lagging.

    AUD/USD would now provide an important gauge to Dollar’s underlying strength in this risk-on sentiment. Technically, break of 0.6364 support will confirm short term topping at 0.6511. Deeper decline would then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283. Firm break there will argue that whole rise from 0.5913 has already completed.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.64%. DAX is up 0.67%. CAC is up 1.46%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.089%. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.085 at 2.646. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.38%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.98% China Shanghai SSE rose 0.82%. Singapore was on holiday. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.035 to 1.389.

    BoE’s Lombardelli: Gradual cuts warranted as wage and services inflation stay high

    BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli reinforced the case for a “gradual and careful” approach to policy easing in a speech today. She noted underlying inflation “have continued to fall” despite noises. Monetary policy is still restrictive and will continue to balance the need to lower inflation with the risk of undermining already soft demand.

    Lombardelli highlighted wage growth as a central focus in the disinflation process, particularly given its outsized influence on domestic services pricing. She noted that private sector regular average weekly earnings rose 5.9% in February, still well above levels consistent with BoE’s inflation target. Services inflation, a key proxy for persistent price pressure, remains elevated at 4.7% as of March. Both indicators suggest that while progress has been made, inflationary momentum in wage-sensitive sectors continues to pose a challenge.

    She also addressed the global backdrop, warning that higher US tariffs and increasingly uncertain American trade policy could lower growth and inflation in the short term by dampening global demand and trade volumes. However, over the longer term, if trade fragmentation continues, it could “reduce output and productivity and would raise inflationary pressures.”

    BoE’s Greene says trade risks justify rate cut

    BoE MPC member Megan Greene said during a panel discussion today that while wages and inflation are moving in the right direction, they remain uncomfortably high. And more concerningly, “medium-term inflation expectations have also started picking up.”

    Greene, who voted with the majority last week in favor of a 25bps rate cut, the fourth since last August, revealed that she was initially undecided going into the meeting.

    She noted being “torn” between holding rates steady and cutting, but ultimately decided to support easing. A key factor in her decision was the rise in global trade tensions, driven by US President Donald Trump’s sharp tariff hikes.

    Despite the subsequent temporary trade truce between the US and China announced today, Greene said it would not have changed her vote.

    She also flagged continued uncertainty over US-EU trade relations as a key downside risk for the UK economy, noting that any escalation could further dampen external demand.

    USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 144.74; (P) 145.46; (R1) 146.11; More…

    USD/JPY’s rise from 139.87 accelerates higher today Break of 38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 147.12 suggests that whole fall from 158.86 has completed at 139.87, after defending 139.57 support and 139.26 fibonacci level. Intraday bias stays on the upside for 61.8% retracement at 151.60 next. On the downside, below 145.70 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Apr 2.40% 2.80% 2.80%
    23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Mar 2.72T 2.42T 2.32T 2.91T
    05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Apr 42.6 44.5 45.1

     



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  • Sterling and Dollar Lead as Trade Deal Grabs Attention

    Sterling and Dollar Lead as Trade Deal Grabs Attention


    Last week was dominated by developments out of the US and UK, not just because of monetary policy decisions, but also the unexpected announcement of a US-UK trade deal. Fed’s hold and BoE’s cut were were largely overshadowed by the surprise trade breakthrough.

    Importantly, the structure of the agreement offered valuable insights into the US administration’s trade strategy which could set the template for negotiations with other key partners.

    Despite the significance of the agreement, market reactions were relatively restrained. Major US stock indexes and the UK’s FTSE 100 closed slightly lower. Investors remain cautious about the deal’s practical impact and the broader global developments.

    Still, the news did provide meaningful support to the currencies involved: Sterling and Dollar emerged as the week’s top performers. Japanese Yen took third place

    In contrast, Loonie underperformed at the bottom. Kiwi and Swiss Franc also lagged. Euro and Aussie ended in the middle of the pack.

    Historic Pact, Modest Reaction: Investors Cautious Despite US-UK Trade Breakthrough

    While the US-UK trade deal marked a diplomatic milestone, the first bilateral agreement since the sweeping tariff measures enacted in April, financial markets responded with notable indifference. Equities initially rallied on Thursday following the announcement, but the enthusiasm quickly faded. All three major US indexes reversed earlier gains and ended the week in the red, with S&P 500 falling -0.5%, NASDAQ down -0.3%, the DOW slipping -0.2%.

    The structure of the agreement reveals much about the current US approach to trade. The UK, given its trade surplus with the US and its unparalleled security ties, likely received the most favorable terms Washington is willing to offer. If this is the best-case scenario, expectations for more comprehensive or lenient agreements, even with regions like the EU or Japan, may need to be tempered.

    A 10% blanket tariff remains on virtually all UK exports to the US. That is likely the floor for future negotiations with other partners. This baseline may not only serve as a protective measure but also as a consistent revenue stream to fund Trump’s domestic agenda, including tax cuts. Though minor exemptions may be granted, such as on UK automobiles and metals, they are expected to be case-specific rather than systemic.

    What sets this agreement apart is the emphasis on expanding market access for US companies in the UK, particularly in agriculture and industries. It suggests that future trade arrangements will be designed less to eliminate tariffs wholesale and more to create bilateral corridors of opportunity favoring U.S. exporters, negotiated country by country.

    In that context, the muted market response becomes clearer. Investors recognize that this agreement doesn’t signify a return to pre-tariff global trade norms. With 90 days remaining in the current tariff truce, the road ahead includes complex negotiations not only with China and the EU but also within supply chains deeply impacted by the new tariff regime. Optimism about progress must be balanced against the reality that a systemic overhaul is still underway, and clarity will be slow to emerge.

    Technically, DOW’s rebound from 36611.78 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 45073.63 high. Further rise is in favor as long as 40759.41 support holds. However, DOW could start to lose momentum more apparently above 61.8% retracement of 45073.63 to 36611.78 at 41841.20. Break of 40759.41 will indicate short term topping, and bring pullback first.

    June Fed Cut Going Off the Radar, July Doubtful, Dollar Extends Modest Rise

    Fed held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% last week, as widely anticipated. The key message from Fed Chair Jerome Powell was one of restraint: rate cuts are not imminent. Powell emphasized that with the current level of uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and tariffs, “it’s not a situation where we can be preemptive.” He reiterated that if the current size and scale of tariffs remain in place, the US could face the dual challenge of rising inflation and unemployment.

    Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s comments from an interview published on Friday is worth a mention. She noted that the breadth of tariff measures already discussed and implemented raises “real questions” about their ultimate economic impact. As such, she suggested it may take longer before Fed can confidently begin to ease rates.

    Crucially, Hammack pointed out that there won’t be much new data between now and the next FOMC meeting in June, limiting the Fed’s ability to reassess the situation. Her comments align with current market pricing, which assigns just a 17.2% probability to a June rate cut.

    Looking ahead, July is now the more likely inflection point, though conviction is still weak. Market-implied odds for a 25bps cut in July stand at around 60%. Investors remain far from convinced a rate move is locked in.

    Dollar Index gyrated higher last week, partly supported by expectations that Fed interest rate will stay high for longer, and partly support by improved appetite on US assets as trade negotiations made progress.

    Technically, corrective rise from 97.92 could extend higher towards 55 D EMA (now at 102.08). But strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60 limit upside. On the downside, break of 99.17 support would argue that the corrective recovery has completed earlier than expected, and bring retest of 97.92 low next.

    BoE Vote Split Surprises, Top Mover GBP/CAD’s Rally Limited

    BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut to 4.25% as widely anticipated, but the composition of the vote took markets by surprise. The Monetary Policy Committee split three ways: five members supported the cut, two hawkish voices—Catherine Mann and Chief Economist Huw Pill—voted for no change, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor pushed for a deeper 50bps reduction. The presence of two hawkish hold votes gave the overall decision a more cautious tone than markets had anticipated Market expectations for a gradual 25bps-per-quarter path remain intact.

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey addressed the impact of global trade tensions in a speech following the decision, and raised an interesting perspective. He highlighted how different global tariff scenarios could affect the UK economy in divergent ways. Most notably, Bailey stressed that a demand-driven downside—where both inflation and activity fall—would require a stronger monetary response compared to a supply-driven upside shock, where inflation rises but growth slows. The key distinction lies in the trade-off: when inflation and activity move in opposite directions, policy decisions become more complex and risk-laden, requiring a more delicate balance.

    British Pound ended the week as the strongest major currency. GBP/CAD was the top mover, rising 1.13%. Still, price action in GBP/CAD doesn’t show clear strength. The bounce even failed to break the prior week’s high of 1.8598.

    Technically, GBP/CAD is seen as in consolidation pattern from 1.8777, with current rise from 1.7980 as the second leg. Further rally might be seen but upside should be limited by 1.8777.

    On the downside, break of 1.8280 support will argue that the third has started. Deeper fall should then follow to 1.7980, or even to channel support at around 1.7700.

    AUD/USD Weekly Report

    AUD/USD retreated after edging higher to 0.6511 last week, but downside is contained above 0.6364 support so far. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6511 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6364 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283.

    In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) holds, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

    In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6764) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.



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