Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)
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Tag: CPI
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Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)
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South Korea Consumer Sentiment Index rose from previous 93.8 to 101.8 in May
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Loonie strengthens for third day as core inflation rises, US Dollar stumbles
- The Canadian Dollar extends gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday, with USD/CAD falling below 1.3900.
- BoC rate cut expectations fade as underlying inflation remains sticky.
- The US Dollar remains under pressure, DXY slips to a fresh weekly low.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens further against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, marking a three-day rally, with USD/CAD slipping below 1.3900 as markets digest stronger-than-expected Canadian inflation figures and a broadly subdued Greenback.
The market reacted to the data released on Tuesday with renewed uncertainty as Canada’s inflation report showed an unexpected rise in core prices despite a steep drop in the headline figure. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 1.7% YoY in April, down from 2.9% in March. On a monthly basis, the CPI fell 0.1% in April from 0.3% in March, well below market expectations. In contrast, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) preferred measure, BoC core CPI, accelerated to 2.5% YoY, from 2.2%, and monthly CPI rose to 0.5% MoM from 0.1% in March.
The fall in headline inflation was partly driven by weaker energy prices, which fell 12.7% YoY in April as the recent removal of the federal carbon tax intensified the impact of falling oil prices driven by OPEC’s decision to hike output.
The latest inflation data paints a complex picture for the BoC ahead of its June rate decision. The BoC held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.75% during its April policy meeting. Some economists now lean toward another pause in cuts.
While the headline inflation figure eased, the rise in core measures indicates underlying price pressure picked up in April.
“It is going to make it a much more challenging backdrop for the Bank of Canada to continue cutting rates, at least in the near term,” said Benjamin Reitzes, Managing Director of Canadian Rates and Macro Strategist at BMO Capital Markets.
On top of that, the impact of US trade tariffs is adding to the uncertainty, potentially keeping inflation higher for longer and making it harder for the central bank to move ahead with its easing plans.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, briefly slipped below the 100.00 mark to a fresh weekly low, down over 1.2% this week. The Greenback remains under pressure amid a broader weakness in the US economy after Moody’s cut the US sovereign credit rating to Aa1 on May 16 and a cautious economic outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
Looking ahead, traders will keep a close eye on the US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data due on Thursday and Canada’s upcoming Retail Sales data on Friday. At the same time, shifts in US economic policy and ongoing global trade developments will continue to play a key role in shaping the direction of the USD/CAD pair.
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Romania Inflation Remains Stable At 4.9%
Romania’s consumer price inflation held steady in April after easing slightly in the previous month, data from the National Institute of Statistics showed on Tuesday.
The consumer price index, or CPI, rose 4.9 percent year-on-year in April, the same as in the previous month, which was the slowest rate in five months.
Prices for food products grew 5.6 percent from last year, and those for non-food goods rose by 3.5 percent. Costs for services were 6.8 percent more expensive.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.07 percent in April.
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Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
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Tokyo Inflation Accelerates In April
Inflation in Japan’s capital accelerated notably in April, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs revealed Friday.
Excluding fresh food, Tokyo core inflation advanced to 3.4 percent from 2.4 percent in the previous month. This was above economists’ forecast of 3.2 percent and also reached the highest level in two years.
Overall consumer prices in Tokyo rose 3.5 percent after climbing 2.9 percent in March.
Excluding fresh food and energy prices, inflation surged to 3.1 percent in April from 2.2 percent in the previous month.
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Japanese CPI data will take centre stage on Good Friday
The Greenback grabbed some much-needed oxygen on Maundy Thursday despite alternating risk appetite trends. In addition, investors shifted their attention to another round of the Trump-Powell effervescence after Trump urged the Fed to slash interest rates and said Chair Powell should be removed as soon as possible, repeating past threats to fire him. The comments came a day after Powell emphasised the Fed’s independence in a speech.
Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 18:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) posted decent gains on Thursday, although it maintained its business in the lower end of the recent range near three-year lows. The Fed’s Daly is due to speak amid the widespread inactivity in the global markets on Good Friday.
Unlike its risk-linked peers, EUR/USD traded with noticeable losses despite briefly surpassing the 1.1400 barrier earlier in the day. The European Commission (EC) will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on April 22.
GBP/USD kept its march north well and sound for yet another day, although gains appeared capped by the vicinity of 1.3270. Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will be next on the UK calendar on April 22.
After bottoming out around 141.60, USD/JPY managed to regain balance and advance past the 142.00 hurdle, up modestly for the day. The Japanese Inflation Rate will be the only release on the docket.
AUD/USD ended the day with modest gains around the 0.6380-0.6390 band, clinching its seventh daily advance in a row. The flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on April 23.
Fresh sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports and renewed supply concerns motivated prices of WTI to climb just above the $64.00 mark per barrel, reaching new two-week highs.
Prices of Gold came under fresh selling pressure on Thursday, slipping back below the $3,300 mark per troy ounce on the back of a better tone in the risk-related assets. Silver prices followed suit and flirted with three-day troughs near the $32.00 mark per ounce.
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GBP/USD recovery rally continues uninterrupted for a fifth straight session
- GBP/USD rose another 0.75% on Monday, climbing for a week straight.
- The Sterling’s broad recovery against the Greenback is poised to run up against key UK data this week.
- UK labor figures are due on Tuesday, followed by UK CPI inflation data on Wednesday.
GBP/USD rose three-quarters of one percent on Monday, climbing for a fifth straight trading session as the Pound Sterling continues to reclaim ground against the softening Greenback. Despite the GBP’s firm run up the charts against the USD, challenges still lie ahead with key UK economic data on the release docket for this week.
UK labor data will be posted early during the Tuesday London market session. The ILO Unemployment Rate for the 3 months ended in February is expected to hold steady at 4.4%, and the Claimant Count Change for March is forecast to ease to 30.3K from February’s 44.2K.
UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures will be posted on Wednesday. Headline UK CPI inflation is forecast to tick down to 2.7% YoY from the previous period’s 2.8%, while core CPI inflation is expected to remain stubbornly pinned at 3.5% YoY.
GBP/USD price forecast
GBP/USD is testing multi-month highs near the 1.3200 handle after rising for a week straight. Cable has risen 3.88% bottom-to-top after the last swing low into the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2700.
GBP/USD daily chart
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. -
Portugal Inflation Unrevised At 1.9%
Portugal’s consumer price inflation slowed as initially estimated in March to the lowest level in four months, the latest report from Statistics Portugal showed on Thursday.
Consumer price inflation softened to 1.9 percent in March from 2.4 percent in February.
Core inflation that excludes energy and unprocessed food products also moderated to 1.9 percent in March from 2.5 percent in the prior month, as estimated.
The deceleration in inflation was mainly due to a 0.1 percent slower increase in energy products compared to a 1.5 percent rise in February. Meanwhile, the annual price growth in unprocessed food products accelerated to 2.8 percent from 2.4 percent.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices climbed 1.4 percent versus a 0.1 percent decline in the previous month, in line with the flash data.
The EU measure of inflation eased to 1.9 percent in March from 2.5 percent in the previous month. Monthly, the HICP rose 0.7 percent
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Forex Today: The release of US CPI grabs all the attention
The Greenback reversed its initial loses to three-day lows and ended the session virtually unchanged in response to a late recovery fuelled by President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs.
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Indonesia Consumer Prices Rebound 1.03%
Indonesia’s consumer prices increased in March after falling for the first time in more than two decades in February, data from the statistics bureau showed on Tuesday.
The consumer price index climbed 1.03 percent year-on-year in March, reversing a 0.09 percent decrease in the previous month. Economists had expected prices to rise by 1.16 percent.
However, the inflation rate is below the central bank’s target range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent.
Data also showed that core inflation stood at 2.48 percent versus an expected rate of 2.50 percent.
Prices for food products grew 2.07 percent from last year, and those for clothing and footwear increased by 1.41 percent. Health costs were 1.80 percent more expensive, while utility charges continued to fall by 4.68 percent.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices moved up 1.65 percent in March.
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Luxembourg Inflation Slows In March
Luxembourg’s inflation eased in March to its lowest level in three months amid a steep fall in petroleum prices and communication costs, preliminary data from the statistical office showed on Monday.
The consumer price index rose 1.3 percent year-on-year after a 1.7 percent climb in February. The rate was the lowest since December when inflation was 1.0 percent.
Communication costs declined 1.7 percent and transport charges fell 0.68 percent. Prices of petroleum products were 2.7 percent lower.
Prices in hotels cafes and restaurants increased 2.59 percent. Utility costs rose 4.83 percent.
The CPI fell 0.2 percent from the previous month, the first decline in four months, mainly due to the sharp 3.4 percent fall in prices of petroleum products. In February, prices rose 1.19 percent from the previous month.
The statistical office said it was highly likely that the next index tranche would be triggered in April, with payment starting in May.
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Philippine Inflation Weakest Since 2020
Philippine inflation weakened to the lowest level in nearly five years in March, giving room for the central bank to ease monetary policy further.
Consumer price inflation weakened to 1.8 percent in March from 2.1 percent in February, data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed Friday. This was the lowest rate since May 2020.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 2.2 percent, down from 2.4 percent in the previous month.
The overall slowdown was mainly driven by the slowdown in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, furnishing and household equipments, health and recreation.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas had kept its interest rates unchanged in February after cutting it for three straight times. The bank had forecast inflation to average 3.5 percent this year and 3.7 percent next year.
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South Korea Inflation Rises In March
South Korea’s consumer price inflation rose slightly in March, data from Statistics Korea showed on Wednesday.
The consumer price index grew 2.1 percent on a yearly basis in March, faster than the 2.0 percent increase in February. Inflation was forecast to remain unchanged at 2.0 percent.
Excluding food and energy, core inflation rose to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent.
Month-on-month, overall consumer prices gained at a slower pace of 0.2 percent after February’s 0.3 percent rise. Core consumer prices also rose 0.2 percent but it was faster than the 0.1 percent increase in February.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages prices moved up 2.4 percent and education cost climbed 2.9 percent. The index for restaurants and hotels and miscellaneous goods and services grew 3.0 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.
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Slovenia Inflation Accelerates To 2.0% In March
Consumer price inflation in Slovenia rose in March reversing the slowdown seen in February, mainly led by higher prices for food, preliminary data from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia showed on Monday.
The consumer price index rose 2.0 percent year-on-year following a 1.6 percent increase in February. Inflation was 2.0 percent in January.
Prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages climbed 3.5 percent, thus making the biggest contribution to inflation in March. Health costs rose 5.4 percent and prices in restaurants and hotels grew 4.2 percent. Services costs were 3.4 percent higher.
Clothing and footwear, recreation and culture, and transport also logged price increases. Meanwhile, utility costs decreased 1.2 percent.
Prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month in March, doubling the 0.3 percent increase in February.
The harmonized index of consumer prices rose 2.2 percent year-on-year in March after a 1.9 percent increase in February. Compared to the previous month, the HICP climbed 0.8 percent after a 0.2 percent rise in February.
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Poland Inflation Steady At 4.9%
Poland’s consumer price inflation remained stable for the second straight month in March, preliminary data from Statistics Poland showed on Monday.
The consumer price index climbed 4.9 percent year-over-year in March, the same as in the previous two months. The expected inflation rate was also 5.1 percent.
Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages grew 6.7 percent annually in March, and housing and utility costs were 13.3 percent more expensive. Meanwhile, prices for fuels for personal transport equipment dropped 4.7 percent.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.1 percent in March.
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Tokyo Inflation Rises Unexpectedly
Inflation in Japan’s capital accelerated unexpectedly in March, data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs revealed Friday.
Excluding fresh food, Tokyo consumer prices moved up 2.4 percent year-on-year, faster than the 2.2 percent rise in February. Prices were expected to climb at a steady pace of 2.2 percent.
Overall inflation logged 2.9 percent annual growth, following February’s 2.8 percent rise.
The Tokyo CPI, excluding fresh food and energy, showed an increase of 2.2 percent in March after rising 1.9 percent each in January and February.
The continued acceleration in consumer prices will heighten concerns among Bank of Japan’s board members about inflation overshooting its 2 percent target, Capital Economics economist Marcel Thieliant said.
“As the Bank should have a rough sense of the severity of US trade restrictions by the time of its May meeting, we now expect the Bank to deliver another 25bp hike at that meeting,” the economist added.
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