Tag: Currencies

  • Posts weekly loss, despite Friday rebound to 0.8100

    Posts weekly loss, despite Friday rebound to 0.8100


    • USD/CHF closes Friday up 0.04%, but logs 1.37% weekly drop to 1-month low at 0.8054.
    • Bearish structure persists: lower highs/lows and weak RSI signal continued downside momentum.
    • Key support lies at 0.8054 and 0.8038; breach may expose psychological 0.8000 level.
    • Bulls need a break above 0.8147 to challenge 0.8200 and the 50-day SMA near 0.8257.

    The USD/CHF ended Friday’s session with gains of over 0.04%, but in the week fell over 1.37% to a one-month low of 0.8054. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8104 due to increased demand for the Dollar amid risk aversion.

    USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    The USD/CHF is bearishly biased due to its price action pattern of successively lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registered a lower low, indicating bearish territory. That said, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.

    If the USD/CHF drops below 0.8100, the next support level would be the June 13 low of 0.8054. On further weakness, the pair fall could extend to 0.8038, ahead of the 0.8000 figure.

    On the upside, a decisive break of the June 13 high of 0.8147 can open the door to test 0.82, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8057.

    USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

    Swiss Franc PRICE This week

    The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -1.33% -0.29% -0.52% -0.82% 0.15% 0.09% -1.29%
    EUR 1.33% 1.00% 0.82% 0.51% 1.53% 1.36% 0.04%
    GBP 0.29% -1.00% -0.10% -0.49% 0.53% 0.38% -0.91%
    JPY 0.52% -0.82% 0.10% -0.30% 0.63% 0.50% -0.84%
    CAD 0.82% -0.51% 0.49% 0.30% 0.86% 0.84% -0.46%
    AUD -0.15% -1.53% -0.53% -0.63% -0.86% -0.18% -1.43%
    NZD -0.09% -1.36% -0.38% -0.50% -0.84% 0.18% -1.24%
    CHF 1.29% -0.04% 0.91% 0.84% 0.46% 1.43% 1.24%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).



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  • AUD/USD climbs to new highs north of 0.6500

    AUD/USD climbs to new highs north of 0.6500


    • AUD/USD adds to the weekly advance, surpassing the 0.6500 mark.
    • The US Dollar remains under pressure from economic data, US-China trade deal.
    • The US CPI fell below consensus, rising by 2.4% YoY in May.

    The upward trend in the Aussie Dollar (AUD) continues unabated this week, with AUD/USD advancing for the third consecutive day and reaching new yearly peaks near the 0.6550 level.

    AUD/USD propped up by USD selling, trade optimism

    The pair keeps its weekly recovery well in place on Wednesday in response to further pessimism hurting the Greenback, while auspicious news on the trade front also alleviated concerns over a protracted trade war.

    Indeed, the US Dollar accelerated its losses after US inflation figures showed the CPI rising less than initially estimated by 2.4% in the year to May. The core reading followed suit, coming in short of expectations and rising 2.8% from a year earlier.

    The weaker-than-expected US data has prompted investors to accelerate their bets of a probable rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its September gathering.

    Back to trade, US and China officials appear to have reached some common ground regarding rare earths at their gathering in London, although the agreement still needs confirmation from both President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

    Next on tap in Oz

    Given the lack of data releases in Australia on Wednesday, investors’ attention shifts to the Melbourne Institute’s release of Inflation Expectations on Thursday.

    What about techs?

    AUD/USD is trading in the low-0.6500s and is expected to face initial resistance at the YTD peak of 0.6545 (June 11), seconded by the November 2024 high of 0.6687 (November 7) and the 2024 top of 0.6942 (September 30), all preceding the key 0.7000 hurdle.

    On the other hand, the resumption of the bearish trend could spark an initial drop to the critical 200-day SMA at 0.6434, prior to the May trough of 0.6356 (May 12). The latter appears reinforced by the proximity of the provisional contention at the 55-day and 100-day SMAs at 0.6379 and 0.6342, respectively.

    The RSI near 59 suggests that further gains should remain in the pipeline in the short-term horizon, while the ADX past 26 is indicative of a modest strength of the trend.



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  •  Traders focus to US-China talks, UK jobs report

     Traders focus to US-China talks, UK jobs report


    The US Dollar dropped as US-Sino trade talks began in London on Monday, amid an improvement in risk appetite and the first reports that talks are going well, according to US President Donald Trump. US equities are trading mixed, US Treasury bond yields down, as traders brace for the release of UK jobs data, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysis, and ECB speakers.

    Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, June 10:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated after posting solid gains last Friday, but it has fallen below the 99.00 level, poised to end the day down 0.28%. Last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures were solid despite the ongoing slowdown. Still, the data, along with the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now, suggests a rebound in Q2 2025 is expected, following the contraction in the first quarter. Data-wise, Tuesday’s schedule will feature the US NFIB Optimism Index amid the Fed speaker’s absence due to the blackout period ahead of the June 17-18 meeting.

    EUR/USD rose past 1.1420 on the ECB’s speakers turning hawkish, particularly Peter Kazimir, who commented that the central bank is near, if not already at, the end of its easing cycle. This, and ECB’s Schnabel adding that the central bank might not decouple from the Fed, provided a tailwind for the shared currency. The docket will feature the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysis, ECB Speakers, and the Sentix Index.

    GBP/USD continues to climb, regaining 1.3500 as overall US Dollar weakness persists amid a sparse economic calendar. Market players are focused on the release of April’s Employment Change, the ILO Unemployment Rate, on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will eye the release of Britain’s government spending plans.

    The USD/JPY prints modest losses after the Japanese Yen appreciated as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures showed an improvement, despite remaining in contractionary territory, at -0.2% YoY, from the -0.7% plunge from the previous print. However, Japanese PM Ishimba saying that the economy is facing a phase of higher prices suggests that the Bank of Japan tightening cycle could continue to underpin the Yen.

    Both antipodean currencies, the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD, advanced to fresh two-day highs. The Aussie Dollar rose by 0.41% to 0.6515, with market players eyeing the release of Consumer Sentiment data and Business Confidence. The kiwi gained 0.61% at 0.6046 due to US Dollar weakness, across the board along with an improvement on Manufacturing Sales.

    Gold prices rose as bulls bought the dip below $3,300, while US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar fell. Nevertheless, a positive outcome of the US-China talks could send XAU/USD into a tailspin as flows move toward riskier assets.

    US Dollar PRICE This week

    The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.21% -0.18% -0.17% 0.02% -0.31% -0.52% -0.02%
    EUR 0.21% 0.02% 0.03% 0.22% -0.08% -0.32% 0.18%
    GBP 0.18% -0.02% 0.08% 0.20% -0.09% -0.34% 0.16%
    JPY 0.17% -0.03% -0.08% 0.20% -0.19% -0.39% 0.03%
    CAD -0.02% -0.22% -0.20% -0.20% -0.35% -0.54% -0.04%
    AUD 0.31% 0.08% 0.09% 0.19% 0.35% -0.24% 0.26%
    NZD 0.52% 0.32% 0.34% 0.39% 0.54% 0.24% 0.50%
    CHF 0.02% -0.18% -0.16% -0.03% 0.04% -0.26% -0.50%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).



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  • Mexican Peso remains firm against the Greenback with USD/MXN below 19.20

    Mexican Peso remains firm against the Greenback with USD/MXN below 19.20


    • The Mexican Peso extends its gains against the US Dollar as markets adopt a ‘risk-on’ sentiment following the easing of US-China tensions.
    • USD/MXN remains in a short-term bearish trend below 19.20.
    • US-Mexico tensions remain in focus next week as Mexico condemns 50% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US.

    The Mexican Peso (MXN) is experiencing its third consecutive day of gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, pushing the USD/MXN exchange rate to its lowest level in eight months.

    With the emerging market pair trading near the October low of 19.11, bearish momentum of the short-term trend continues to hold. The pair momentarily traded at 19.09, its lowest level since mid-September. 

    Throughout the week, escalating trade tensions and a weaker USD have underpinned MXN strength. However, Thursday’s diplomatic developments and Friday’s better-than-expected US employment data have added complexity to the broader narrative.

    The latest move in USD/MXN reflects a combination of strong domestic fundamentals in Mexico, including rising consumer confidence and resilient exports, alongside global risk appetite and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut. The pair remains vulnerable to further downside if tariff tensions escalate or if the Mexican government fails to secure an exemption from the recently imposed US steel and aluminum tariffs.

    Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN weighs tariffs, growth outlook, and consumer confidence

    • Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard is in Washington to meet with US officials and request an exemption from the recently imposed 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The Mexican government is pushing hard to protect its industries and jobs, and if no exemption is granted, it plans to announce its response next week.
    • Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for May surprised to the upside. The US economy added 139,000 new jobs, beating analysts’ expectations of a 130,000 increase. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%.
    • The stronger-than-expected headline figure has provided temporary relief for the Dollar, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to act quickly with rate cuts. 
    • According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a July rate cut has dropped sharply to 16.5%, down from 33.9% prior to the release. The data has temporarily eased pressure on the Fed to act swiftly, suggesting that policymakers may adopt a more patient stance in the near term.
    • On Thursday, Mexico’s Consumer Confidence data for May was released, showing a figure of 46.5, an increase from 45.5 in April. On Thursday, Reuters reported that the Canadian Prime Minister called US tariffs “illegal,” while Mexico and the European Union expressed similar frustration.
    • On Wednesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum called the new tariffs “unjust, unsustainable, and without legal grounds,” warning that if a deal is not reached, Mexico will be forced to respond with retaliatory measures. Canada and the EU have also threatened to retaliate if no progress is made in trade talks.

    USD/MXN technical analysis: Bearish trend remains strong below 19.20

    Price action on the USD/MXN daily chart continues to reinforce the broader bearish structure. With prices currently trading around the October low of 19.11, the psychological level of 19.20 is providing an important barrier of resistance for the short-term move.

    At the time of writing, prices remain below both the 10-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.26 and the 20-day SMA at 19.33. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 19.57, derived from the broader October–February rally, now acts as a key resistance level, further capping any recovery attempts. 

    The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 36 signals bearish momentum, although the indicator has yet to reach oversold conditions, suggesting potential for further downside.

    USD/MXN daily chart

    From here, the bearish scenario would involve a decisive break below the October low of 19.11, which could see prices retest the September low of 19.07, opening the door for bearish continuation toward 19.00 

    On the other hand, the bullish scenario would require a sustained recovery above 19.28 (10-day SMA) and 19.34 (20-day SMA), followed by a breakout above the 19.60 resistance, which aligns with the 23.6% retracement of the same October–February move. 

    Mexican Peso FAQs

    The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

    The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

    Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

    As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.



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  • GBP/USD slips as strong US jobs data cools Fed rate cut bets

    GBP/USD slips as strong US jobs data cools Fed rate cut bets


    • Sterling still set for weekly gain over 0.80% amid broad Greenback weakness earlier in the week.
    • US economy added 139K jobs in May, beating forecasts and reinforcing Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.
    • Dollar strength resurfaces, with DXY climbing 0.58% to 99.28, its highest in two days.

    GBP/USD tumbled during the North American session, down over 0.30% after the latest jobs report in the United States (US) maintained the status quo, with the economy remaining strong. The pair traded at 1.3526 after hitting a daily high of 1.3586.

    Pound retreats below 1.3550 after NFP beats estimates, lifting the US Dollar and dampening dovish expectations

    US Nonfarm Payroll figures in May exceeded estimates of 130K, rising by 139K, which was below April’s downwardly revised 147K. Although the jobs market shows that it’s softening, beating economists’ estimates, it pushed aside traders’ bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in 2025.

    The data revealed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, and that the Federal Government cut 10,000 jobs in the past month.

    A scarce economic docket in the UK, kept GBP/USD traders leaning onto US news. In addition, Sterling is poised to post gains of over 0.80% in the week, sponsored fy broad UA Dollar weakness.

    Despite this, the buck has recovered some ground, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the value of the American dollar against a basket of six currencies, climbed 0.58% to 99.28, its highest level in two days.

    Next week, the UK economic docket will feature jobs data and gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for April. Across the pond, the US schedule will announce the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI), followed by the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

    British Pound PRICE This week

    The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.32% -0.40% 0.75% -0.35% -0.75% -0.76% 0.08%
    EUR 0.32% -0.08% 1.07% -0.03% -0.43% -0.46% 0.39%
    GBP 0.40% 0.08% 1.22% 0.05% -0.35% -0.38% 0.46%
    JPY -0.75% -1.07% -1.22% -1.09% -1.49% -1.51% -0.76%
    CAD 0.35% 0.03% -0.05% 1.09% -0.40% -0.43% 0.42%
    AUD 0.75% 0.43% 0.35% 1.49% 0.40% 0.02% 0.90%
    NZD 0.76% 0.46% 0.38% 1.51% 0.43% -0.02% 0.85%
    CHF -0.08% -0.39% -0.46% 0.76% -0.42% -0.90% -0.85%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

    GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    The trend remains up, as GBP/USD buyers tested the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3509. If this level holds, the pair’s direction would likely resume in the short term after making successive series of higher highs and higher lows, warranting further upside.

    However, momentum has taken a hit. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is aiming lower, hints that sellers are moving in.

    If GBP/USD stays above 1.3500, this opens the door for a move to 1.3584 today’s high, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.3616. On the other hand, a daily close below 1.35 could sponsor a drop towards April’s 28 sing high turned support at 1.3443 ahead of the 1.34 mark.

    Pound Sterling FAQs

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data.
    Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

    The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates.
    When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
    When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP.
    A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

    Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.



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  • AUD/USD drifts below 0.6500 with the Dollar picking up ahead of the NFP report

    AUD/USD drifts below 0.6500 with the Dollar picking up ahead of the NFP report


    • FX traders are paring back their USD short positions ahead of the US NFP release.
    • US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show a 130,000 increase in May.
    • A weaker-than-expected reading might heighten hopes of Fed easing and send the USD lower.

    The Australian Dollar extends losses below 0.6500 on Friday as traders trim their US Dollar short positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. The pair’s broader trend remains positive, but the double top at 0.6530 hints at a strong resistance area.

    All eyes today are on the US Nonfarm payrolls report, which will be observed with particular interest, after a string of negative US releases earlier this week revived fears of a recession.

    Market forecasts anticipate a 130,000 increment on private employment in May, following a 177,000 rise in April, with the Unemployment Rate steady at the previous 4.2% level.

    Downbeat NFP figures might boost hopes of Fed easing

    Earlier this week, ADP Employment figures showed a much lower than expected reading, 37k against the 115K expected. Beyond that, Manufacturing activity contracted beyond forecasts and, unexpectedly, the Services sector showed a similar picture. After these figures, markets are wondering whether a 130K increase in Payrolls is not too optimistic a view.

    Another weak release today will increase concerns about the US economic momentum and might convince the Fed to abandon its neutral stance and lower interest rates further to avoid a deeper economic slowdown. This might add pressure on the USD.

    The Australian calendar has been light today, although the impact of a softer-than-expected Australian GDP and the RBA’s dovish minutes has been minimal, with US economic data and Trump’s ongoing tariff saga as the main market movers this week.

    Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs

    Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

    The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation.
    A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work.
    The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

    Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower.
    NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

    Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa.
    Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold.
    Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

    Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components.
    At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary.
    The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.



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  • Slides below 0.82, reaches multi-week low as USD appreciates

    Slides below 0.82, reaches multi-week low as USD appreciates


    • USD/CHF drops to 0.8155 amid renewed ‘Sell America’ sentiment across global markets.
    • RSI confirms bearish momentum; next targets are YTD low at 0.8083 and psychological support at 0.8000.
    • Recovery needs a break above 0.8200, with resistance at 0.8300 and last week’s high at 0.8346.

    USD/CHF extended its losses during Monday’s North American session, down 0.60% as the Greenback weakened across the board. An earlier risk-off impulse, which surprisingly shifted positively, weighs on the US Dollar (USD), which did not capitalize on its status as the ‘sell America’ trade continues to gain steam in the financial markets. The pair trades below 0.8200 after hitting a six-week low of 0.8155.

    USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    Since hitting a weekly high of 0.8346, the USD/CHF pair has plummeted sharply due to overall weakness in the US Dollar. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gathering momentum. This means the major could retest the year-to-date (YTD) lows hit on April 21, a swing low of 0.8083. If that level is surpassed, the next stop would be the 0.8000 figure.

    Conversely, if USD/CHF drops below 0.8100, the next support would be the abovementioned YTD low of 0.8083sd and the 0.8000 figure.

    USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

    Swiss Franc PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.85% -0.62% -0.81% -0.27% -0.97% -1.32% -0.78%
    EUR 0.85% 0.22% 0.05% 0.57% -0.12% -0.51% 0.06%
    GBP 0.62% -0.22% -0.15% 0.36% -0.34% -0.74% -0.16%
    JPY 0.81% -0.05% 0.15% 0.54% -0.17% -0.53% -0.07%
    CAD 0.27% -0.57% -0.36% -0.54% -0.70% -1.08% -0.51%
    AUD 0.97% 0.12% 0.34% 0.17% 0.70% -0.33% 0.28%
    NZD 1.32% 0.51% 0.74% 0.53% 1.08% 0.33% 0.57%
    CHF 0.78% -0.06% 0.16% 0.07% 0.51% -0.28% -0.57%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).



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  • The US economy remains resilient

    The US economy remains resilient


    The President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Dallas, Lorie Logan, struck a cautiously balanced tone in earlier remarks, acknowledging both persistent inflation pressures and rising market uncertainty.

    Key Quotes

    • Despite uncertainty and financial market volatility, the US economy is resilient.
    • The labour market remains stable.
    • Inflation is still somewhat above target.
    • Risks are balanced on both sides of the mandate.
    • If tariffs change inflation expectations, that would be significant.
    • Market volatility and uncertainty could cause households and businesses to pull back.
    • Monetary policy is well positioned to wait and be patient.
    • Well-positioned to act if risks materialise.
    • Key risk is if higher short-term inflation expectations become entrenched.
    • Our job is to ensure inflation doesn’t become persistent.



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  • EUR/USD edges lower to mid-1.1300s; looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus

    EUR/USD edges lower to mid-1.1300s; looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus


    • EUR/USD ticks lower on Thursday and stalls the previous day’s bounce from over a one-week low.
    • A turnaround in the global risk sentiment lends some support to the USD and weighs on the pair.
    • Traders now look to the US PCE Price Index for some impetus ahead of the ECB next Thursday.

    The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s solid bounce from the 1.1200 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half week low, and trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently hover around the mid-1.1300s, down nearly 0.15% for the day, though the downside remains cushioned.

    Following the previous day’s dramatic turnaround, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some dip-buyers amid the flight to safety and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. A federal appeals court paused a separate trade court ruling and reinstated US President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs late Thursday. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets and revives demand for traditional safe-haven assets.

    The USD uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction amid concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again in 2025. The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw some support from US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of tariffs on the European Union (EU), which contributes to limiting the downside for the EUR/USD pair.

    Moving ahead, the spotlight turns to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair heading into the weekend. The market focus will then shift to the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting next Thursday.

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
    EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
    The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
    The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
    Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
    A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
    Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.



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  • USD/CHF rallies to over one-week top, close to mid-0.8300s on the tariff-block news

    USD/CHF rallies to over one-week top, close to mid-0.8300s on the tariff-block news


    • USD/CHF resumes its weekly uptrend after a US federal court blocked Trump’s tariffs.
    • Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC Minutes boosts the USD and contributes to the move up.
    • Traders now look forward to Thursday’s US macro data for short-term opportunities.

    The USD/CHF pair regains positive traction following the previous day’s directionless price move and jumps to over a one-week high, around the 0.8345-0.8350 area during the Asian session Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of a multi-day-old uptrend from sub-0.8200 levels, or a nearly three-week low touched on Monday.

    The global risk sentiment gets a strong boost after the Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked US President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal trade tariffs. Wall Street futures and equities across Asia rise sharply in reaction to the court ruling, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). This along with a strong follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.

    In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, scales higher for the third straight day in the wake of the tariff-block news and hawkish FOMC Minuets released on Wednesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials agreed to maintain the wait-and-see approach on interest rates amid the uncertainty about the economic outlook and trade policies. This tempers hopes for more aggressive Fed rate cuts and continues to push the USD higher.

    However, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will deliver at least two 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the end of this year. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and caps the USD/CHF pair. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the Prelim Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data – for short-term trading opportunities.

    US Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD 0.39% 0.25% 0.63% 0.10% 0.12% 0.53% 0.68%
    EUR -0.39% -0.13% 0.23% -0.29% -0.20% 0.13% 0.28%
    GBP -0.25% 0.13% 0.35% -0.15% -0.06% 0.25% 0.33%
    JPY -0.63% -0.23% -0.35% -0.53% -0.52% -0.15% -0.04%
    CAD -0.10% 0.29% 0.15% 0.53% -0.03% 0.43% 0.47%
    AUD -0.12% 0.20% 0.06% 0.52% 0.03% 0.34% 0.39%
    NZD -0.53% -0.13% -0.25% 0.15% -0.43% -0.34% 0.05%
    CHF -0.68% -0.28% -0.33% 0.04% -0.47% -0.39% -0.05%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).



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  • USD/CAD extends gains above 1.3800 with all eyes on the FOMC Minutes

    USD/CAD extends gains above 1.3800 with all eyes on the FOMC Minutes


    • The US Dollar remains firm, drawing support from the positive US Consumer Confidence data and easing trade war fears.
    • The CAD remains on the defensive amid lower Oil prices and hopes of further BoC cuts.
    • Later today, the tone of the FOMC minutes is likely to confirm the US Dollar’s near-term direction.

    The US Dollar is showing a moderate advance on Wednesday, extending gains after Tuesday’s rebound. Upbeat US Consumer Confidence data and easing fears about trade wars are supporting the Greenback, with the release of the Fed minutes on focus.

    The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence reading beat expectations on Wednesday with a 12.3 point rebound to a 98.0 reading, after having deteriorated steadily during the last five months, on the back of tariff uncertainty.

    Upbeat US data sends debt fears to the background

    The same survey revealed improving expectations on income, business conditions, and employment, while the percentage of consumers fearing an economic recession in the next 12 months declined, compared to the previous month.

    These figures offset a significant decline in US Durable Goods orders, which fell by 6.3% in April, on the back of lower demand for aircraft. Likewise, the risk-on sentiment pushed government debt fears to the back seat, at least for now.

    The Canadian Dollar, on the other hand, remains on the defensive, with Oil prices ticking lower, weighed by expectations that OPEC+ countries will increase supply from July. Furthermore, last week’s data strengthened the case for further BoC easing in June, adding selling pressure on the Loonie. 

    Today, the focus is on the minutes of the latest Fed meeting, which are expected to shed some more light on the bank’s upcoming monetary policy decisions. The tone of the minutes is likely to determine the US Dollar’s reaction until Friday’s PCE inflation release.

    Fed FAQs

    Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
    When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
    When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
    The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

    In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
    It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.



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  • Mexican Peso benefits from a weaker Greenback on Memorial Day

    Mexican Peso benefits from a weaker Greenback on Memorial Day


    • The Mexican Peso holds gains as US Dollar pressure builds.
    • US bond markets reopen on Tuesday, contributing to the pair’s next move.
    • USD/MXN remains in a downtrend with immediate resistance at 19.30.

    The Mexican Peso (MXN)  is experiencing a steady appreciation against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, reflecting lingering uncertainty in the United States (US) economic outlook amid concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats and the country’s fiscal outlook.

    With US markets closed for Memorial Day on Monday, the Mexican Peso remains resilient, with the USD/MXN pair trading at around 19.22, down 0.18%, at the time of writing.

    As participants keep an eye on US Treasury yields and remarks from US policymakers, they should be aware of the limited liquidity in the US market due to the holiday weekend.

    On this week’s economic agenda, the fate of the USD/MXN will likely remain at the mercy of the Greenback and insights provided by the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. 

    Market participants are particularly focused on the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for April, as well as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, which are scheduled for Friday. 

    These data points are crucial for understanding inflation and consumer sentiment trends, and gauging how US citizens feel about the current economic situation, both of which are important factors that may influence expectations regarding when the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates.

    Mexican Peso daily digest: USD/MXN faces pressure due to renewed US Dollar weakness

    • The US credit rating downgrade, rising expectations of increased US debt levels, and a sell-off in the bond market have placed the resilience of the USD under significant scrutiny. 
    • The USD struggles to gain ground as investors digest US President Donald Trump’s decision to extend EU tariffs until July 9. The announcement on Monday cheered risk markets, as traders see it as an opportunity for negotiations between the two significant economies.
    • On Friday, Trump had threatened to impose 50% tariffs on European Union imports and 25% tariffs on Apple and Samsung smartphones, rattling markets.
    • The persistent threats of tariffs from President Trump directed at international counterparts are undermining investor confidence, thereby challenging the USD’s status as the preferred reserve currency.
    • On Tuesday, US Consumer Confidence data, which gauges Americans’ views about the economy and finances, will be released. 
    • Wednesday’s agenda will see the publication of the minutes from the May Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, offering insights into interest rate discussions, alongside public statements from Fed members providing additional context for future monetary policy.

    Mexican Peso technical analysis: USD/MXN pressures support with October low in focus

    USD/MXN remains entrenched in a firm downtrend, hitting a new year-to-date low just below 19.20 at the time of writing.

    Price action continues to hover below both the 10-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), which act as dynamic resistances at 19.34 and 19.47, respectively.

    Momentum indicators remain weak, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) parked at 35.79, suggesting that while bearish momentum, the market is not yet in oversold territory. 

    With downside pressure building, attention now shifts to the October low at 19.11, which serves as the next major support. 

    A sustained break below this level could open the door to deeper declines toward 19.00, while any rebound would first need to reclaim 19.47 to shift short-term sentiment.

    USD/MXN daily chart

    Central banks FAQs

    Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.

    A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.

    A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.

    Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.



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  • Rebounds towards 144.00 after three-day slide

    Rebounds towards 144.00 after three-day slide


    • USD/JPY snaps losing streak, rises over 0.20% amid profit-taking before weekend.
    • RSI hints at bottoming, but buyers must clear 144.00 for bullish follow-through.
    • Downside risks remain if pair fails to hold above key 143.00 support.

    The USD/JPY pair snapped three straight days of losses and climbed over 0.20% on Thursday late during the North American session. The Yen’s recent depreciation, despite falling US Treasury yields and amid the lack of a catalyst, could be attributed to traders booking profits ahead of the weekend. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 143.96 after bouncing off daily lows of 142.80.

    USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    USD/JPY suggests buyers overcame sellers, pushing the pair above the 143.00 figure and poised to curtail the Greenback’s fall against the Yen. Momentum suggests the pair could be bottoming out, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).

    Nevertheless, the RSI remains bearish, though it edges towards its 50-neutral line.

    That said, buyers will need USD/JPY to clear 144.00. A breach of the latter will expose key resistance levels, led by the Kijun-sen at 144.27 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 144.65. If those levels are cleared, the Senkou Span A confluence and the psychological 145.00 figure will follow.

    The USD/JPY must remain below the Kijun-sen for a bearish continuation. If achieved, the first support would be 143.00, followed by the May 21 swing low of 142.80. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the previous cycle low seen at 142.35, the May 6 daily low.

    (This story was corrected on May 22 at 21:26 GMT to say in the headline and the first paragraph that USD/JPY slid for three consecutive days, not seven)

    USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

    Japanese Yen PRICE This week

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.86% -0.99% -0.86% -0.84% -0.15% -0.30% -0.91%
    EUR 0.86% -0.17% 0.05% 0.09% 0.83% 0.62% -0.05%
    GBP 0.99% 0.17% -0.10% 0.23% 1.00% 0.78% 0.09%
    JPY 0.86% -0.05% 0.10% 0.02% 0.84% 0.76% -0.02%
    CAD 0.84% -0.09% -0.23% -0.02% 0.79% 0.55% -0.14%
    AUD 0.15% -0.83% -1.00% -0.84% -0.79% -0.21% -0.87%
    NZD 0.30% -0.62% -0.78% -0.76% -0.55% 0.21% -0.69%
    CHF 0.91% 0.05% -0.09% 0.02% 0.14% 0.87% 0.69%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).



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  • Forex Today: It’s PMI-day!!!

    Forex Today: It’s PMI-day!!!



    The US Dollar (USD) maintained its weekly leg lower well in place, weakening to new two-week lows on the back of rising concerns over the US fiscal position in light of President Trump’s tax bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.



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  • EUR/USD climbs on Greenback weakness, but key technical barriers remain in place

    EUR/USD climbs on Greenback weakness, but key technical barriers remain in place


    • EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, but remains capped by 1.1300.
    • Despite a near-term recovery, the Euro remains down from recent highs against the Greenback.
    • US PMI figures will be the key data release this week.

    EUR/USD caught a bounce for a second day in a row on Tuesday, bolstering the pair back toward the 1.1300 handle. Despite a near-term rise in bullish momentum bolstering the Fiber, EUR/USD remains well back from recent multi-year highs near 1.1575. The pair has found a firm technical floor from key moving averages, and overall market sentiment remains hopeful that traders will be able to keep finding reasons to hit the buy button.

    Tariffs dominate market perception, but US data looms ahead

    European policymakers are currently wrapped up in G7 meetings, minimizing the trickle of noteworthy headlines from key EU decision-makers. Overall market sentiment remains entirely hinged on trade headlines from the US, with investors hoping that deals will be struck with the Trump administration that will encourage President Donald Trump and his staffers to take the tariff gun away from their own economy’s head. Despite the overall upbeat tone in global markets, the steady drift into the unknown is beginning to limit bullish sentiment. The Trump administration is rapidly approaching its own self-imposed 90-day deadline on its own “reciprocal tariffs” package. While some potential trade deals have been announced, nothing concrete has been forthcoming.

    It will be a limited data docket on Wednesday, with only mid-tier data on the offering on both sides of the Pacific. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are expected to come in mixed on Thursday. US Manufacturing PMI in May is expected to tick down to 50.1 from 50.2, while the Services component is seen holding flat at 50.8.

    EUR/USD price forecast

    Fiber rose four-tenths of one percent against the Greenback on Tuesday, pushing EUR/USD within touch range of the 1.1300 handle. The pair is still riding out a halting but determined bullish bounce from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just below 1.1100, but bullish price momentum still has a long way to go to reclaim multi-year highs north of 1.1500 posted in April.

    EUR/USD daily chart

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
    EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
    The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
    The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
    Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
    A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
    Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.



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  • AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6400 ahead of Chinese macro data

    AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6400 ahead of Chinese macro data


    • AUD/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction amid mixed fundamental cues.
    • A weaker risk tone caps the Aussie, though a weaker USD lends support to the pair.
    • Traders look to Chinese macro data for some impetus ahead of the RBA on Tuesday.

    The AUD/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and consolidates just above the 0.6400 round-figure mark during the Asian session. Moreover, spot prices remain confined in a familiar range held over the past month or so as traders await a fresh catalyst before positioning for the next leg of a directional move.

    In the meantime, Monday’s Chinese macro data dump could provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair and allow traders to grab short-term opportunities. The immediate market reaction, however, is more likely to be limited as the focus remains glued to the crucial Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision on Tuesday.

    The Australian central bank is widely expected to cut its key rate by 25 basis points (bps) and lower borrowing costs twice more this year amid easing inflation and growth concerns on the back of trade tensions. However, the de-escalation of the US-China trade war has tempered bets for more aggressive policy easing by the RBA.

    Nevertheless, the policy outlook will influence the Australian Dollar (AUD) and determine the next leg of a directional move for the AUD/USD pair. Heading into the key central bank event risk, a turnaround in the global risk sentiment – as depicted by a generally weaker tone around the equity markets – is seen capping the Aussie.

    A surprise downgrade of the US government’s credit rating tempers investors’ appetite for riskier assets. Apart from this, bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed, which, in turn, might continue to act as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair and warrants some caution for bearish traders.

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.



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  • Cross struggles to hold gains amid mixed signals

    Cross struggles to hold gains amid mixed signals


    • AUD/NZD trades near the 1.0900 zone with minor losses on Friday.
    • The pair maintains a bullish outlook despite mixed short-term signals.
    • Key support is clustered below 1.0880, with resistance near 1.0920.

    The AUD/NZD pair is experiencing mild selling pressure on Friday, hovering near the 1.0900 zone as the market approaches the Asian session. Despite the minor losses, the broader technical outlook remains constructive, with several key indicators aligning to support the pair’s upward trajectory. However, conflicting short-term signals suggest that further gains may face headwinds, as traders navigate a mix of buy and sell pressures.

    AUD/NZD maintains a generally bullish structure, supported by the alignment of short-term moving averages. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicates a buy signal, reflecting the pair’s recent strength, while both the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 10-day SMA similarly point to upward momentum. However, the broader trend picture remains mixed, as the longer-term 100-day and 200-day SMAs still favor selling, highlighting the potential for deeper pullbacks if bullish momentum falters.

    Momentum indicators provide a similarly divided outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the 50 level, indicating neutral conditions that align with the current price consolidation. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) signals buy momentum, reinforcing the broader bullish view. In contrast, the Stochastic %K, trading in the 80s, and the Stochastic RSI Fast, positioned in the 90s, both suggest overbought conditions, indicating the potential for near-term corrective moves. The Bull Bear Power, sitting near neutral, further highlights this lack of a decisive trend.

    For now, immediate support is expected around 1.0871, with additional levels near 1.0867 and 1.0864. On the upside, resistance is likely to emerge around 1.0914, followed closely by 1.0923 and 1.0945, potentially capping any recovery attempts as the pair struggles to maintain its recent gains.

    Daily Chart



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