Tag: EURJPY

  • Bullish tone remains in play above 163.00

    Bullish tone remains in play above 163.00


    • EUR/JPY trades in negative territory near 163.25 in Friday’s early European session. 
    • The positive view of the cross prevails above the key 100-day EMA, but the RSI indicator suggests neutral momentum.
    • The first upside barrier is seen at 164.26; the initial support level is located at 162.10.

    The EUR/JPY cross attracts some sellers to around 163.25 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) amid rising expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates this year. Furthermore, the persistent trade-related uncertainties boost the safe-haven flows, benefitting the JPY. 

    Technically, the bullish outlook of EUR/JPY remains intact on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the midline. This suggests a neutral momentum in the near term. 

    The immediate resistance level emerges at 164.26, the high of May 29. Further north, the next hurdle is seen at 164.75, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. A decisive break above this level could pave the way to 165.21, the high of May 13. 

    On the flip side, the first downside target to watch is 162.10, the 100-day EMA. Extended losses could see a drop to 161.60, the lower limit of the Bollinger Band. The crucial support level for EUR/JPY is seen at 160.00, the psychological level and the low of April 8. 

    EUR/JPY daily chart

    Japanese Yen FAQs

    The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

    One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

    Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

    The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.



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  • EUR/JPY attracts bids below 162.00 as German Merz secures majority in second attempt

    EUR/JPY attracts bids below 162.00 as German Merz secures majority in second attempt


    • EUR/JPY bounces back from below 162.00 as German Friedrich Merz is confirmed as new Chancellor.
    • German Merz failed to secure an absolute majority in the first voting process at the Bundestag.
    • Trump’s tariff threats on pharmaceutical imports have increased the JPY’s safe-haven demand.

    The EUR/JPY pair rebounds above 162.00 during the North American trading session after attracting bids near 161.60, which is the intraday low. The pair bounces back as Germany’s Conservative leader Friedrich Merz secures an absolute majority after getting 325 votes in the second attempt in the Bundestag, or the lower house of Parliament.

    Friedrich Merz received 310 votes in the first attempt, six short of 316 required to be elected as Chancellor of Germany, despite the CDU/CSU and Social Democrats collectively commanding 326 votes in Bundestag.

    The confirmation of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor has diminished fears of political instability and is expected to boost defense spending measures approved in March.

    However, firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will reduce interest rates in the June policy meeting will limit the Euro’s (EUR) upside. The ECB is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). This would be the seventh interest rate cut by the ECB in a row. The reasoning behind firm ECB dovish bets is high conviction that the Eurozone inflation is on track to return to the central bank’s target of 2% by the year-end.

    Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) performs strongly as fresh tariff threats from United States (US) President Donald Trump have increased its safe-haven demand. Trump threatened to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which will be announced in two weeks.

    Japanese Yen PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.22% -0.55% -0.59% -0.23% -0.14% -0.45% 0.22%
    EUR 0.22% -0.34% -0.36% -0.02% 0.07% -0.23% 0.44%
    GBP 0.55% 0.34% -0.04% 0.32% 0.44% 0.11% 0.81%
    JPY 0.59% 0.36% 0.04% 0.35% 0.45% 0.22% 0.82%
    CAD 0.23% 0.02% -0.32% -0.35% 0.09% -0.22% 0.48%
    AUD 0.14% -0.07% -0.44% -0.45% -0.09% -0.31% 0.39%
    NZD 0.45% 0.23% -0.11% -0.22% 0.22% 0.31% 0.69%
    CHF -0.22% -0.44% -0.81% -0.82% -0.48% -0.39% -0.69%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

    On the domestic front, investors await the Bank of Japan (BoJ) monetary policy meeting minutes, which will be published on Wednesday.

     



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  • Euro pulls back near 163.00 but bullish trend remains intact

    Euro pulls back near 163.00 but bullish trend remains intact


    • EUR/JPY was seen around the 163.00 zone after retreating during Monday’s session.
    • Broader bias stays bullish, with downside limited by upward-trending averages.
    • Price holds above key supports, while resistance aligns with short-term recovery targets.

    The EUR/JPY pair slipped lower on Monday, falling toward the 163.00 zone as the session closed and ahead of the Asian open. Despite the day’s decline, the broader setup remains constructive, with the pair still holding above critical trendline supports. Momentum readings appear neutral, but the underlying structure is sustained by bullish signals from longer-term indicators.

    Technically, the pair maintains its bullish posture. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence signals continued buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index remains neutral near the midline around 53. Other tools such as the Awesome Oscillator and Bull Bear Power also print neutral readings, reflecting a short-term consolidation rather than a shift in directional momentum.

    What reinforces the positive tone is the alignment of key moving averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are all rising and lie beneath current prices, providing a strong technical floor. The 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages offer further dynamic support in the 162.10–162.15 area, helping contain deeper pullbacks.

    Support levels are seen at 162.40, 162.26, and 162.14. Resistance is marked at 162.67, 162.76, and 163.60. A sustained bounce from current levels could see EUR/JPY test the upper end of its recent range, while a break below support would challenge the bullish case in the near term.

    Daily Chart



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  • Bullish Momentum Holds Despite Minor Dip Before Asia

    Bullish Momentum Holds Despite Minor Dip Before Asia


    • EUR/JPY was observed trading around the 162.00 region, experiencing a slight pullback on the day.
    • The overall technical analysis points towards a prevailing bullish sentiment for the currency pair.
    • Key Simple Moving Averages indicate buying interest, while the Relative Strength Index is neutral, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence suggests selling pressure.

    In the lead-up to Tuesday’s Asian trading session, EUR/JPY has seen a minor decline, trading near the 162.00 mark. Despite a sell signal from one momentum indicator, the broader technical landscape suggests underlying bullish strength, supported by several key moving averages.

    The EUR/JPY pair currently displays a bullish technical outlook. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is showing a sell signal, potentially indicating some short-term downward pressure, the longer-term trend appears positive. The Relative Strength Index resides in neutral territory around the 52 level, not providing a strong directional cue. However, the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages are all signaling buy opportunities, underscoring sustained bullish momentum across various time horizons. Similarly, the 30-day Exponential Moving Average and Simple Moving Average also support this upward trajectory. The Stochastic %K and Stochastic RSI Fast are both currently neutral.

    Considering potential trading levels, immediate support is identified at 162.01, followed by 161.97 and then a lower level at 161.92. On the resistance side, the first barrier is at 162.17, with subsequent resistance levels at 162.22 and 162.68.

    Daily Chart



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  • Bullish tone remains in play above 163.00

    EUR/JPY extends upside above 161.00 ahead of ECB rate decision


    • UR/JPY gains momentum to near 161.15 in Thursday’s early European session.
    • The concerns over tariff risks on Japan might contribute to the JPY.
    • The ECB is anticipated to cut interest rates at the March meeting on Thursday.

    The EUR/JPY cross extends the rally to around 161.15 during the early European session. The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens against the Euro (EUR) amid the risk-on mood after US President Donald Trump will delay Canada and Mexico tariffs on autos for one month.

    The White House announced a one-month delay for US automakers to comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement from the tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt also said that Trump was “open” to extra tariff exemptions beyond the pause on auto levies. This, in turn, boost investors’ appetite for riskier assets and drags the safe-haven currency like the Japanese Yen lower.

    The growing concerns over tariff risks in Japan might contribute to the JPY’s downside. US President Donald Trump said that Japan and China are keeping their currencies down, signaling that he may impose fresh tariffs on imports if this does not stop.

    However, the upside for the cross might be limited amid rising speculation of further hike from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The BoJ is widely anticipated to continue hiking this year, supported by improving economic conditions, rising prices, and stronger wage growth, which align with the Japanese central bank’s policy normalization efforts.

    On the Euro front, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates for the second time this year at its March meeting on Thursday. The markets are now fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut for the March meeting, taking the ECB’s key rate to 2.5% . A further reduction to 2% by the end of the year was also priced in.

    ECB FAQs

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

     

     



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  • EUR/JPY falls to near 159.00 following robust Japan’s GDP data

    EUR/JPY falls to near 159.00 following robust Japan’s GDP data


    • EUR/JPY declined following the release of Japan’s Gross Domestic Product report on Monday.
    • Japan’s GDP rose by 0.7% QoQ in Q4, marking the third straight quarter of growth.
    • The Euro may gain if a ceasefire in Ukraine is agreed upon and gas supplies resume.

    EUR/JPY gives up gains from the previous session, trading around 159.10 during the Asian hours on Monday. This decline is linked to a stronger Japanese Yen (JPY), driven by a robust Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report that exceeded expectations, reinforcing market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue to raise interest rates.

    Japan’s economy grew by 0.7% in the fourth quarter, compared to the revised 0.4% increase in the previous quarter. This marks the third consecutive quarter of growth, fueled by a strong rebound in business investment. Yearly growth accelerated from a revised 1.7% in Q3 to 2.8%, supporting the BoJ’s stance on further rate hikes amid signs of broadening inflation.

    Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi remarked on Monday that Japan faces significant risks if its companies become targets due to US President Donald Trump’s policies, and the government will respond cautiously to potential impacts.

    The Euro could strengthen against its peers if a ceasefire in Ukraine is reached and gas supplies resume. Reports suggest that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to start negotiations to end the conflict. BBC sources indicate that Trump administration officials are set to meet with Russian counterparts in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss a potential peace agreement.

    However, any upside for the Euro may be capped as several European Central Bank (ECB) officials remain comfortable with expectations that the central bank will lower its Deposit Facility rate three more times this year. The ECB already reduced interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% last month.

    Economic Indicator

    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by Japan’s Cabinet Office on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Japan during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Japan’s economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

    Read more.

    Last release: Sun Feb 16, 2025 23:50 (Prel)

    Frequency: Quarterly

    Actual: 0.7%

    Consensus: 0.3%

    Previous: 0.3%

    Source: Japanese Cabinet Office

     



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  • EUR/JPY climbs to one-week top, closer to mid-162.00s amid weaker JPY

    EUR/JPY climbs to one-week top, closer to mid-162.00s amid weaker JPY


    • EUR/JPY scales higher for the fourth straight day amid the emergence of some JPY selling.
    • The divergent BoJ-ECB policy expectations should keep a lid on the upside for the cross.
    • Traders now look to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for short-term opportunities.

    The EUR/JPY cross attracts follow-through buyers for the fourth straight day on Wednesday and looks to build on its recovery from the 159.70-159.65 area, or over a one-month low touched last week. The intraday positive move lifts spot prices to a one-week top, around the 162.35-162.40 area during the Asian session and is sponsored by the emergence of some selling around the Japanese Yen (JPY).

    The global risk sentiment remains well supported by the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and hopes that US President Donald Trump might relax curbs on Russia in exchange for a deal to end the Ukraine war. Adding to this, Trump’s proposed trade tariffs lacked details, which further boosted investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This, in turn, is seen undermining demand for the safe-haven JPY and acting as a tailwind for the EUR/JPY cross.

    That said, the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates on Friday should limit any meaningful JPY depreciation. Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) strength, along with Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on the European Union and bets that the European Central Bank (EC) will lower borrowing costs further, seem to weigh on the shared currency and should cap any further gains for the EUR/JPY cross. 

    The aforementioned fundamental backdrop and the recent repeated failures near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrant some caution for bullish traders. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move. Traders now look to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech for some impetus, though the focus will remain glued to the crucial BoJ policy meeting.

    Japanese Yen PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.08% 0.02% 0.25% 0.02% 0.13% 0.23% 0.12%
    EUR -0.08%   -0.07% 0.16% -0.07% 0.05% 0.15% 0.04%
    GBP -0.02% 0.07%   0.23% -0.00% 0.12% 0.21% 0.09%
    JPY -0.25% -0.16% -0.23%   -0.22% -0.12% -0.03% -0.15%
    CAD -0.02% 0.07% 0.00% 0.22%   0.12% 0.21% 0.08%
    AUD -0.13% -0.05% -0.12% 0.12% -0.12%   0.10% -0.03%
    NZD -0.23% -0.15% -0.21% 0.03% -0.21% -0.10%   -0.13%
    CHF -0.12% -0.04% -0.09% 0.15% -0.08% 0.03% 0.13%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

     



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