Tag: European Union

  • Global Risk Sentiment Brightens, But Caution Lingers Around US Assets

    Global Risk Sentiment Brightens, But Caution Lingers Around US Assets


    Global risk sentiment showed further improvement last week, with stock markets around the world posting impressive gains. Although headlines continued to focus on the confusing state of U.S.-China trade tensions, there was quiet but notable progress on multiple trade fronts, including US talks with Japan, South Korea and India.

    US equities rebounded alongside the global rally even though they still lack the decisive momentum needed to confirm that a durable bottom has been established. European markets, on the other hand, painted a far more encouraging picture.

    The strength of the rebound in European equities suggests that the worst of the April selloff may already be behind us. Moreover, there is a growing sense that the sharpest phase of the tariff crisis has passed, and that incremental improvements could take root from here.

    The shift in sentiment was clearly reflected in the currency markets too. Kiwi ended the week as the strongest performer, followed by Aussie and Sterling. All three currencies benefited from the rebound in risk appetite, with investors rotating out of safe-haven assets and into higher-yielding or growth-linked currencies. On the other end, the safe-haven trio—Swiss Franc, Yen, and Euro—underperformed, as investors rotated away from defensive assets amid easing fears. Dollar and Loonie finished in the middle of the pack.

    While the equity rally suggests a return of broader risk appetite, investor interest in US assets has yet to fully recover. This is likely due to ongoing concerns over U.S. policy consistency and the uncertain path for trade negotiations. Until clearer signals emerge from Washington and stronger technical confirmations develop in US stock markets, Dollar may continue to lag behind the recovery seen elsewhere.

    Markets Rally on Trade Progress, But Major Hurdles with China and EU Remain

    Global stock markets extended their strong rally last week. There seems to be growing optimism that the worst phase of the tariff crisis may be behind us, at least for now. Trade negotiations appear to be picking up momentum across several fronts, offering hope for partial resolutions. Recent economic data, particularly PMI surveys from the Eurozone and the US, suggest that businesses have been bracing well for uncertainty, cushioning the blow from trade tensions.

    In an interview with Time magazine on Friday, US President Donald Trump said he expects “many” trade deals to fall into place over the next three to four weeks. Positive signals are emerging from several bilateral channels too. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa is set to visit Washington this week for a second round of talks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted that a US-South Korea trade deal could be finalized as early as next week. US and India are reported to have agreed on the terms for a bilateral deal covering trade in goods, services, and critical sectors like e-commerce and minerals. Switzerland also announced it was among a group of 15 countries given “somewhat preferential treatment” in tariff talks, with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter indicating that the 90-day truce could be extended for active negotiating partners.

    However, not all fronts are moving smoothly. Despite initial discussions, talks between the US and the EU have yet to yield tangible compromises. Progress remains slow, even in setting a basic framework for formal negotiations. The slow movement with Europe highlights that achieving broad global de-escalation is far from guaranteed.

    Meanwhile, the situation with China remains the murkiest. Rumors continue to swirl about informal discussions, but no clear confirmation has been provided by either side. Trump insists that some communication with Beijing is ongoing, while Chinese officials deny that any talks are happening. Although there were earlier hopes for de-escalation, Trump has reiterated that tariffs on China will remain in place unless “they give us something substantial.”

    Without a clear breakthrough or even a defined negotiation channel, US-China trade tensions remain a major overhang for global markets, tempering some of the broader optimism.

    European Strength Offers Hope, Caution Persists for US Indexes

    While US stocks have staged a strong rebound recently, the technical backdrop remains somewhat unconvincing. The recovery lacks decisive confirmation, particularly in DOW. In contrast, the outperformance seen in European markets is offering hope that the worst of the market correction could already be behind us. Particularly in the UK and Germany, technical signals suggest that early April’s steep selloff may have been a medium-term shakeout rather than the start of a long-term bearish trend.

    In the UK, FTSE ‘s breach of 55 D EMA (now at 8420.51) and break of 55 W EMA (now at 8260.66) suggest that corrective fall from 8900.82 has already completed at 7554.83. Price actions from 8908.82 is likely just a medium term consolidations pattern, rather than a long term bearish trend reversal. The range of the consolidations should be set between 38.2% retracement of 4898.79 to 8902.82 at 7376.99 and 8908.82.

    Nevertheless, for the near term, while further rise could be seen as long as 8166.53 support holds, FTSE should start to lose momentum above 55 D EMA.

    Germany’s DAX tells a similar story. The index’s corrective fall from the 23476.01 has likely completed at 18489.91. What we are seeing now is a medium-term consolidation rather than a full trend reversal. The range is set between 38.2% retracement of 8255.65 to 23476.01 at 17661.83 and 23476.01.

    For the near term, further rise is in favor as long as 21044.61 support hold. But DAX should lose momentum as it approaches 23476.01 high.

    Turning to the US, developments in Europe suggest that DOW may eventually find solid support from 38.2% retracement of 18213.65 to 45073.63 at 34813.12 to contain downside even in case of another fall, should another selloff occur. Still, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 41361.53) is needed to indicate that fall from 45703.63 has completed. Or risk will remain on the downside for the near term.

    NASDAQ’s picture is a little bit more promising than DOW. Firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 17604.27) will indicate that fall from 2024.58 has completed at 14783.03, after defending 38.2% retracement of 6631.42 to 20204.58 at 15019.63. That should set the range for medium term consolidations for NASDAQ.

    Dollar Struggles Despite Risk Stabilization, Policy Uncertainty Remains a Drag

    While risk sentiment has shown signs of stabilizing in global markets, and even hints at a return of risk appetite, this does not necessarily imply a renewed interest in US assets. In particular, both the Dollar and US. Treasuries continue to face headwinds until investors see more policy consistency from the Trump administration. Markets remain wary of abrupt shifts in trade policy, tariff threats, and broader economic strategies, which cloud the overall investment climate for Dollar-based assets.

    Another important factor is the evolving US trade balance. Should the Trump administration succeed in narrowing the US trade deficit, there could be a meaningful structural impact on the demand for Dollar-denominated assets. A narrower deficit would mean fewer surplus Dollars circulating abroad to be recycled into US Treasuries and other assets, potentially pushing yields higher and softening the Dollar’s appeal at the same time, particularly if fiscal deficits remain large.

    Technically, Dollar Index’s recovery from 97.92 short term bottom is lacking decisive momentum. As long as 100.27 resistance holds, near term risk will remain on the downside for another fall through 97.92 sooner rather than later. Break of 97.92 will pave the way to 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97 next.

    Nevertheless, firm break of 100.27 would set the stage for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60, even still as a corrective move.

    NZD/JPY Extends Rebound, Bullish Reversal Hinges on 87.35 Break

    NZD/JPY extended the rebound from 79.79 last week as risk sentiment continued to improve. The breach of falling trend line resistance is a tentative sign that fall from 92.45 has completed at 79.79. Further rise is now in favor as long as 83.88 support holds.

    On the upside, decisive break of 87.35 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 99.01 to 79.79 at 87.13) will argue that corrective decline from 99.01 has already completed too. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 91.66.

    However, rejection by 87.13/35 will keep near term outlook bearish. Break of 83.88 support will bring retest of 79.79, and possibly resumption of the down trend from 99.01 too.

    EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

    EUR/CHF’s stronger than expected rebound last week suggests that fall from 0.9660 has already completed at 0.9218, ahead of 0.9204 low. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. In either case, further rally is expected this week as long as 0.9336 support holds, towards 0.9660. However, break of 0.9336 will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

    In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

    In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9962) holds.



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  • Risk Appetite Eases; Markets Await Clarity from US-Japan Negotiations

    Risk Appetite Eases; Markets Await Clarity from US-Japan Negotiations


    Global markets are trading with a mildly risk-off tone today, with losses spanning from Asia through to Europe, and US futures following suit. Technology stocks are under pressure, led by AI-chip giant Nvidia, which warned of significant charges stemming from new US restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. The announcement marks the latest escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, particularly in high-tech sectors where geopolitical and economic interests are increasingly colliding.

    Despite the drag from tech, the broader equity pullback remains relatively contained. Some support is being drawn from slightly stronger-than-expected US retail sales data, which helped ease fears of a sharp consumer slowdown. Still, sentiment remains cautious ahead of potential headlines from US-Japan negotiations later today. The discussion is expected to touch on key topics including tariffs, defense cost-sharing, energy policy, and exchange rate management. The results of these talks could offer a clearer view of US President Donald Trump’s broader trade strategy and whether current tariff policies are a prelude to further escalation.

    Meanwhile, pressure is mounting on BoJ, with reports suggesting it is preparing to downgrade its economic growth outlook at the April 30–May 1 policy meeting. BoJ’s current forecast of 1.1% GDP growth for fiscal 2025 is likely to be revised downward in response to the mounting impact of US tariffs. While inflation in Japan has been trending upward gradually, central bank officials are now questioning whether the external drag from trade tensions could offset domestic momentum.

    In the currency markets, the Swiss Franc is leading gains for the day, followed by Euro and Yen, as investors rotate back into safer assets. Dollar, by contrast, is the day’s weakest performer, followed by Kiwi and Pound. Loonie and Aussie are positioning in he middle.

    Technically, Sterling has shown some resilience this week, but signs of fatigue are emerging near key resistance levels. EUR/GBP has found support at 0.8518, while GBP/USD is struggling to break above its near-term channel ceiling. Pullback in the Pound from current levels is plausible, though any downside is likely to remain limited unless EUR/GBP breaks back above 0.8737. Conversely, a decisive upside break against both Euro and Dollar could reignite a broader rally in Sterling.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.34%. DAX is down -0.54%. CAC is down -0.66%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.0037 at 4.622. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.034 at 2.502. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.01%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.91%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.26%. Singapore Strait Times rose 1.04%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.078 to 1.298.

    US retail sales rise 1.4% mom in March, above exp 1.3%

    US retail sales rose 1.4% mom to USD 734.9B in March, slightly above expectation of 1.3% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 590.9B, above expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 1.7% mom to USD 683.4B. Ex-auto & gasoline sales rose 0.8% mom to USD 539.5B.

    Total sales for the January through March period were up 4.1% from the same period a year ago.

    Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.2% in March, core at 2.4%

    Final data confirmed that Eurozone headline inflation edged lower to 2.2% yoy in March, down from 2.3% in February. Core inflation (ex energy, food, alcohol & tobacco) also softened to 2.4% from 2.6%.

    Services was the main contributor to price pressures in Eurozone, adding 1.56 percentage points to the annual rate, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco at 0.57 points. Energy contributed negatively, subtracting -0.10 points from the overall figure.

    At the EU level, inflation was finalized at 2.5% yoy, an improvement from February’s 2.7% yoy. France registered the lowest annual rate at just 0.9%, while Denmark and Luxembourg followed at 1.5% and 1.5% respectively. In contrast, inflation remains more persistent in Eastern Europe, with Romania (5.1%), Hungary (4.8%), and Poland (4.4%)recording the highest annual rates.

    UK CPI falls to 2.6%, both goods and services inflation ease

    UK consumer inflation continued to ease in March, with headline CPI slowing to 2.6% yoy, slightly below the expected 2.7% and down from 2.8% yoy in February. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3%, also under consensus 0.4% mom forecast.

    The decline was broad-based, with annual goods inflation falling to 0.6% yoy from 0.8% yoy and services inflation easing to 4.7% yoy from 5.0% yoy.

    Core CPI (excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) edged down to 3.4% as expected, from 3.5% previously.

    BoJ’s Ueda: US tariffs nearing bad scenario, policy response may be needed

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that US President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff policies have “moved closer towards the bad scenario” anticipated by the central bank.

    “We will scrutinise without pre-conception the extent to which US tariffs could hurt the economy,” he said in an interview with Sankei newspaper.

    “A policy response may become necessary. We will make an appropriate decision in accordance with changes in developments,” he added.

    Nevertheless, Ueda reiterated that BoJ will continue to raise interest rates “at an appropriate pace” as long as economic and price conditions align with its projections.

    On inflation, Ueda said domestic food price pressures are expected to ease. He sees real wages turning positive and continuing to rise into the second half of the year, supporting consumption and price stability.

    Still, he warned of dual risks: persistent inflation driven by global supply shocks, or a consumption drag caused by the rising cost of living.

    Australia Westpac leading index falls as tariff shock starting to weigh

    Australia’s Westpac Leading Index slipped from 0.9% to 0.6% in March. Westpac noted that the index has only just begun to reflect the escalating disruptions caused by US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2.

    While the immediate impact on Australia is seen as limited and manageable for now, “some further softening in the growth pulse looks likely in the months ahead”.

    Westpac has revised down its growth forecast for Australia in 2025 to 1.9% from 2.2%, citing the accumulating downside risks.

    Looking ahead to RBA’s May 19–20 meeting, Westpac expects the deteriorating global backdrop and clearer signs of inflation cooling will prompt a 25bps rate cut.

    Moreover, the tone of the meeting is likely to pivot more decisively “away from lingering questions about inflation to downside risks to growth.” Such a shift would lay the groundwork for additional policy easing in the second half of the year.

    China Q1 GDP tops forecasts with 5.4% growth

    China’s economy started the year on a stronger footing, with GDP expanding by 5.4% yoy in Q1, surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, growth slowed to 1.2% from 1.6% in Q4.

    March’s activity indicators were broadly upbeat. Industrial production surged by 7.7% yoy, well above the 5.6% yoy forecast. Retail sales climbed 5.9%, also ahead of expectations of 5.1% yoy.

    Fixed asset investment increased 4.2% year-to-date, modestly exceeding projections. However, persistent weakness in the property sector continues to weigh on the recovery narrative. Property investment fell -9.9% in Q1, slightly worse than the -9.8% decline recorded over the first two months of the year. Private sector investment—a key gauge of business confidence—rose only 0.4%.

    USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 142.71; (P) 143.15; (R1) 143.70; More…

    USD/JPY is still bounded in consolidations from 142.05 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral. Another recovery cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bearish as long as 151.20 resistance holds. Below 142.05 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Machinery Orders M/M Feb 4.30% 1.10% -3.50%
    01:00 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Mar -0.10% 0.06%
    02:00 CNY GDP Y/Y Q1 5.40% 5.10% 5.40%
    02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar 7.70% 5.60% 5.90%
    02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Mar 5.90% 4.10% 4.00%
    02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Mar 4.20% 4.10% 4.10%
    06:00 GBP CPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.40%
    06:00 GBP CPI Y/Y Mar 2.70% 2.80%
    06:00 GBP Core CPI Y/Y Mar 3.40% 3.50%
    06:00 GBP RPI M/M Mar 0.40% 0.60%
    06:00 GBP RPI Y/Y Mar 3.20% 3.40%
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Feb 37.3B 35.4B
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Mar F 2.20% 2.20%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Mar F 2.40% 2.40%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Mar 1.30% 0.20%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Mar 0.40% 0.30%
    13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Mar -0.30% 0.70%
    13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Mar 77.90% 78.20%
    13:45 CAD BoC Interest Rate Decision 2.75% 2.75%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M 2.6M

     



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  • Euro Softens on ZEW Shock, Loonie Dips on CPI, Kiwi Leads

    Euro Softens on ZEW Shock, Loonie Dips on CPI, Kiwi Leads


    Euro is trading on the softer side in relatively quiet markets today, weighed down by a fresh round of weak economic data. The sharp plunge in German and Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment, triggered largely by mounting uncertainty over US trade policy, has deepened concerns about the region’s growth outlook. Adding to the dovish tone, ECB’s latest bank lending survey revealed that credit standards tightened and corporate loan demand weakened further in Q1, even before the tariff-driven turmoil of early April. Together, these developments strengthen the case for another ECB rate cut when the Governing Council meets this Thursday.

    Canadian Dollar is also under some pressure following the latest CPI data, which showed headline inflation slowing more than expected. Core measures, including trimmed and common CPI, also came in softer than forecast. The figures mark a welcome reversal from February’s surprise inflation spike and give BoC added flexibility to stay on hold at its policy meeting tomorrow. However, having already lowered rates from a peak of 5.00% to the current 2.75%, BoC may opt to preserve remaining policy ammunition while assessing the broader impact of US tariffs.

    Overall in the currency markets, the New Zealand and Australian Dollars are leading gains for today, buoyed by stabilization in risk sentiment. Sterling is also firmer, as mixed UK labour market data is unlikely to derail BoE’s slow and steady approach to policy normalization. On the weaker end, the Swiss Franc is underperforming the most, followed by Loonie and Euro. Dollar and Yen are trading closer to the middle of the pack.

    Technically, NZD/USD’s strong break of 0.5852 resistance this week firstly confirms short term bottoming at 0.5484. More importantly, the break of 55 W EMA also suggests that a medium term bottom was formed, just ahead of 0.5467 key support (2020 low). Rise from 0.5484 could now be heading back to 38.2% retracement of 0.7463 to 0.5484 at 0.6240, even as a corrective bounce.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.88%. DAX is up 0.98%. CAC is up 0.23%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.004 at 4.662. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.037 at 2.548. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.84%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.23%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 2.14%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.035 to 1.376.

    Canada’s CPI slows to 2.6%, CPI common down to 2.3%

    Canada’s headline inflation cooled more than expected in March, with the annual CPI rate easing to 2.3% yoy from 2.6% yoy, below consensus forecasts for no change. The deceleration was largely driven by falling prices in travel-related services and gasoline. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.3% mom, undershooting expectations of a 0.7% mom increase.

    Core inflation metrics also pointed to moderation. CPI median held steady at 2.9% yoy, in line with expectations. But the trimmed mean slipped to 2.8% yoy from 2.9% yoy, and the common core fell to 2.3% yoy from 2.5% yoy, both coming in below forecast.

    German ZEW collapses to -14 as trade uncertainty rattles outlook

    Investor confidence in Germany took a sharp turn for the worse in April, with ZEW Economic Sentiment Index plummeting from 51.6 to -14, its steepest decline since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022.

    The drop came in well below expectations of 10.6 and reflects mounting concerns over US trade policy, which ZEW President Achim Wambach described as marked by “erratic changes.” The Current Situation Index, however, showed a modest improvement, rising from -87.6 to -81.2, slightly better than forecast.

    Eurozone also saw a significant deterioration in investor sentiment, with ZEW expectations gauge falling from 19.8 to -18.5, missing the anticipated 14.2 reading. Current Situation Index dropped by -5.7 points to -50.9.

    According to ZEW, sectors most vulnerable to trade disruptions—such as autos, chemicals, and engineering—are now under renewed pressure, despite recent signs of stabilization. The growing unpredictability in global trade dynamics is weighing heavily on future expectations, dampening optimism across the bloc.

    Despite the worsening sentiment, financial market participants do not foresee a renewed surge in inflation. This perception, ZEW notes, gives ECB some room to continue its easing cycle in an effort to support growth.

    Eurozone industrial output surges in 1.1% mom in Feb, driven by consumer and capital goods

    Eurozone industrial production posted a stronger-than-expected gain of 1.1% mom in February, well above the 0.1% mom forecast. The increase was largely driven by a 2.8% jump in non-durable consumer goods and a solid 0.8% rise in capital goods output. Intermediate goods also rose modestly by 0.3%, while energy production and durable consumer goods declined by -0.2% -and 0.3%, respectively.

    Across the broader EU, industrial production rose 1.0% on the month, with Ireland (+10.8%), Belgium (+7.4%), and Luxembourg (+6.3%) leading the gains. Meanwhile, Croatia (-3.9%), Greece (-3.6%), and Romania (-2.1%) recorded the steepest declines.

    UK payolled employment falls -78k, wage growth slows

    UK payrolled employment falling -by 78k in March, down 0.3% mom. Median monthly pay growth also moderated to 4.8% yoy from 5.5% yoy, pointing to easing wage pressures. Meanwhile, claimant count rose by 18.7k, less than the expected 30.3k increase.

    In the three months to February, unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, in line with expectations. Wage growth came in slightly below forecasts across the board. Average earnings including bonuses rising 5.6% yoy (unchanged from the previous month) and those excluding bonuses up 5.9%, a touch softer than the anticipated 6.0% yoy.

    RBA Minutes: Next rate move not predetermined, China’s tariff response a key variable

    The minutes from RBA’s March 31–April 1 meeting revealed emphasized that it was “not yet possible to determine the timing of the next move in interest rates.” The Board emphasized the importance that the “next decision was not predetermined”.

    Members agreed that the May meeting would offer a more “opportune time” for reassessment, as it would coincide with updated data on inflation, wages, employment, and global tariff developments, as well as a revised set of economic forecasts.

    RBA highlighted that the economic outlook could be significantly shaped by how Chinese authorities respond to global tariff developments. Meanwhile, RBA acknowledged that risks to the outlook exist on both sides.

    On one hand, global trade uncertainties and softening demand may pose disinflationary pressures, while on the other, risks such as supply chain disruptions and currency depreciation could fuel inflation.

    RBA opted to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.10% at the meeting.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1289; (P) 1.1357; (R1) 1.1418; More…

    EUR/USD dips mildly today as consolidation continues below 1.1472. Deeper pull back might be seen but downside should be contained by 1.1145 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.1472 will target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0745) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
    06:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Mar 18.7K 30.3K 44.2K 16.5K
    06:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Feb 4.40% 4.40% 4.40%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Feb 5.60% 5.70% 5.80% 5.60%
    06:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Feb 5.90% 6.00% 5.90% 5.80%
    09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr -14 10.6 51.6
    09:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Apr -81.2 -86 -87.6
    09:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr -18.5 14.2 39.8
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Feb 1.10% 0.10% 0.80%
    12:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Mar 214K 238K 229K 221K
    12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Feb 0.20% -0.20% 1.70% 1.60%
    12:30 CAD CPI M/M Mar 0.30% 0.70% 1.10%
    12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.30% 2.60% 2.60%
    12:30 CAD CPI Median Y/Y Mar 2.90% 2.90% 2.90%
    12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Mar 2.80% 2.90% 2.90%
    12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Mar 2.30% 2.40% 2.50%
    12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Apr -8.1 -14.8 -20
    12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Mar -0.10% 0.10% 0.40% 0.20%

     



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  • A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil

    A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil


    It has been a brutally volatile week across global markets, driven by a whirlwind of US tariff implementations, abrupt reversals, and rapid retaliatons. Investors were left scrambling to make sense of the White House’s constantly shifting trade stance. We won’t attempt to recap every step of the tariff saga, when even members of the administration seemed unable to track the unfolding policy moves.

    The most consequential outcome of the week was the broad-based pressure on US assets. The sharp selloff in Treasuries drew the most concern, raising alarms over whether the bedrock of the financial markets is beginning to erode. That said, while the jump in yields was certainly eye-catching, it has yet to cross the threshold into full-blown crisis territory.

    US stocks, after plunging to their lowest levels in months mid-week, managed to stage a strong rebound. Key technical support levels held, keeping the long-term uptrend intact—for now. However, that doesn’t mean the risks are gone. If the mounting tariffs ultimately tip the US into recession, the bounce may prove to be nothing more than a bear market rally.

    Dollar also struggled, ending as the week’s worst performer. Despite rising yields and some risk-off mood, neither provided the greenback any meaningful support. Dollar Index is now on the verge of resuming its broader medium-term downtrend.

    In the broader forex markets, Sterling and Yen also underperformed. On the other end, Swiss Franc stood tall as the market’s safe-haven anchor, followed by Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Euro and Canadian Dollar ended the week in middle ground.

    Tariff Shock and Yield Spike Rattle Markets; Not a Crisis Yet, But Warnings Are Flashing

    The essence of the market chaos: US reciprocal tariffs officially went into effect—only to be paused within hours to allow room for negotiation, except for China. On the surface, that might have calmed markets. And indeed, it opened the door to dialogue, with Taiwan reportedly holding the first video talks, while delegations from the EU and Japan are en route for face-to-face meetings in Washington in the coming days.

    But on the other side of the equation was deepening hostilities between the US and China. Both sides escalated tariffs beyond economically meaningful levels, effectively moving toward full-scale trade decoupling. The narrative is no longer about negotiation—it’s about economic separation.

    What spooked markets the most wasn’t just the trade conflict, but the simultaneous selloff in US assets—equities, Dollar, and perhaps most importantly, Treasuries. This rare alignment of outflows suggested something deeper: a loss of confidence. Some speculate this is precisely why US President Donald Trump reversed course and paused the reciprocal tariffs—because of the violent reaction in the bond market.

    Indeed, Trump and his economic advisors have repeatedly cited the importance of keeping bond yields low to support the broader economic agenda. As yields spiked and refinancing costs soared, concerns within the White House likely escalated. A persistent rise in yields would undermine everything from fiscal stimulus to housing affordability and corporate balance sheets.

    There are several theories about what triggered the Treasury selloff. Some point to the unwinding of the “Treasury basis trade”—a leveraged strategy used by hedge funds that collapsed under margin stress. Others blame foreign governments, particularly China, for dumping US debt in retaliation.

    But perhaps the most straightforward explanation is the simplest: long-term investors are losing interest in US assets, shifting instead into alternatives like Gold in this time of uncertainty, which surged to fresh record highs this week.

    Importantly, not all global bond markets are suffering. Germany’s 10-year yield remained within a calm 2.5–2.7% range.

    Japan’s 10-year yield held steady around 1.3–1.4% after being pulled up by US yields.

    In contrast, US 10-year yields soared, nearing 4.6%, a stark rise from just 3.89% a week ago.

    Technically, the picture in US 10-year yields is worrying but not yet in panic mode. For the near term, the decline from 4.809 should have bottomed at 3.886% as a correction. As long as 4.289 support holds, further rise toward 4.809 is expected.

    That said, this is still within the bounds of a broad consolidation pattern from the 2023 peak at 4.997%. Current rally might just be one of the legs.

    However, if 10-year Treasury yields were to break decisively above the symbolic 5% level, the impact could be seismic. Borrowing costs across the economy would surge along, from mortgages to corporate debt, tightening financial conditions at a pace that could choke off growth.

    Beyond the US, such a move could trigger forced selling by foreign holders, particularly if trade tensions worsen or FX reserves are rebalanced. The result could be a broad and disorderly repricing of global assets, especially in equity markets and emerging economies, ushering in a new chapter where financial stability, rather than inflation, becomes the dominant concern.

    Stock Rebound Preserves Uptrend, But Recession Could Break the Spell

    The steep intra-week selloff in US equities, among the sharpest in years, has been met with an equally aggressive rebound. Key technical levels held, for example in DOW, which bounced decisively ahead of the 55-month EMA, preserving the long-term uptrend from the 2009 low. For now, market action points to a deep medium-term correction rather than the beginning of a full-blown bear market. However, it would be premature to call the all-clear.

    Many economists and central bankers globally have described the US tariff hikes as a textbook stagflationary shock—simultaneously dampening growth and fueling price pressures. According to estimates from the European Commission, the existing 10% blanket tariffs and the 25% metal duties could shave 0.8% to 1.4% off US GDP by 2027. For the EU, the impact is more muted at around 0.2%. But if the tariff regime becomes entrenched or if retaliations escalate further, those numbers could rise dramatically—especially with US-China tariffs not yet fully factored in.

    Inflation expectations are also flashing warning signs. While the March US CPI data delivered some relief by slowing more than expected, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey painted a grimmer picture. One-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%—a level last seen in 1981—up sharply from 5.0% in March. Inflation could reaccelerate ahead if supply shocks persist or if inflation expectations become unanchored.

    Adding to the concern is the historical warning from the yield curve, something that we have mentioned a number of times. The spread between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasuries—the classic recession signal—inverted in mid-2022 and uninverted last August. Historically, this un-inversion has preceded recessions around 6 to 12 months. That puts the timeline for a economic downturn squarely within 2025. That clock is ticking.

    Technically, DOW’s defense of 55 M EMA (now at 3558.57) keeps long-term uptrend from 6369.96 (2009 low) alive. For the near term tough, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 45703.63 to 36611.78 at 41841.20 is needed to confirm that correction from 45703.63 has completed. Without that, the best investors can expect is range-bound consolidation.

    The worst-case scenario? Decisive break of 55 M EMA would open up deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 6469.95 to 45703.64 at 30327.02 at least.

    Dollar Index Cracks 100 Psychological Level, Heading to 95?

    Dollar Index dived to as low as 99.01 last week as fall from 110.17 reaccelerated. The break of 100.15 support (2024 low) affirms the case that whole down trend from 114.77 (2022 high) is resuming. Further break of 99.57 (2023 low) should confirm this bearish case. Meanwhile, near term risk will stay heavily on the downside as long as 103.22 support turned resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

    So where will Dollar Index head to? Price actions from 114.77 are so far still viewed as a corrective pattern. The next line of defense could come at 38.2% retracement of 70.69 (2008 low) to 114.77 at 97.93. If not, the next target will be 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

    The development in EUR/USD should also be considered. Last week’s break of 1.1274 resistance (2023 high) should confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). More importantly, EUR/USD is now breaking through the falling channel resistance that lasted more than 1.5 decade. Rise from 0.9534 is likely to extend to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916, or slightly further to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 0.9534 at 1.2019.

    Given the EUR/USD’s bullish outlook, and that Yen is also strong against Dollar, Dollar index is more likely to hit above mentioned 94.97 projection level than not.

    USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

    USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4791 high continued last week and accelerated through 1.3946/76 key support zone. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.3773. On the upside, break of 1.4150 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, the break of 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high) and 55 W EMA (now at 1.3992) indicates that a medium term is already in place at 1.4791. Fall from there would either be a correction to rise from 1.2005, or trend reversal. In either case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

    In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3479) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term correction should then follow.



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  • Dollar Selloff Extends Into Week’s End, Trade Talks With EU and JP Offset China Escalations

    Dollar Selloff Extends Into Week’s End, Trade Talks With EU and JP Offset China Escalations


    Financial markets showed signs of stabilization since European session, despite another round of retaliatory tariff hikes from China. While the latest move saw China raise levies on US goods to 125% from 84%, the response was widely anticipated and thus well absorbed by investors. Both President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping have maintained uncompromising stances, so markets had largely priced in another step in the tit-for-tat trade war. The absence of any conciliatory tone keeps tensions high, but the predictability of the escalation appears to have dulled the market impact.

    Also, China’s latest move may have reached a symbolic peak. In a strongly worded statement, China’s finance ministry noted that at current tariff levels, “there is no longer a market for US goods imported into China,” implying that further retaliation may be economically futile. “If the U.S. government continues to increase tariffs on China, Beijing will ignore,” it added.

    Some of the bearish sentiment from the US-China standoff is being offset by more constructive developments on other trade fronts. Negotiations between the US and both the European Union and Japan appear to be gaining traction. EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič is scheduled to visit Washington on April 14 to meet US officials and continue discussions on tariff matters. Meanwhile, Japan’s newly formed task force, led by Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa, is preparing for key meetings on April 17 with US Treasury and trade representatives.

    Despite the stabilization in broader risk sentiment, Dollar continues to bleed, extending a week-long selloff and positioning itself as the worst performer among major currencies. Sterling is tracking as the second weakest despite a strong UK GDP report. Loonie follows closely behind, pressured by declining oil prices and general risk aversion.

    Swiss Franc stands out as the week’s clear winner, underpinned by its status as the undisputed safe-haven, while Kiwi and Euro are also among the strongest performers. Aussie and Yen are positioning in the middle.

    Eyes are now on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report. Any significant surprises in that data could prompt a final reshuffling of currency rankings before markets settle for the weekend.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.50%. DAX is down -1.26%. CAC is down -0.45%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.048 at 4.699. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.067 at 2.516. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -2.96%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.13%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.45%. Singapore Strait Times fell -1.83%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.031 to 1.346.

    US PPI unexpectedly falls -0.3% mom in March

    US producer prices posted a surprise decline in March, with the headline PPI for final demand falling -0.4% mom, well below expectations of a 0.2% mom rise.

    The drop was driven largely by a -0.9% mom decline in final demand goods, while final demand services also slipped -0.2% mom.

    On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 2.7% year-on-year from 3.2%, also below forecasts.

    PPI excludes food, energy, and trade services, rose just 0.1% mom on the month, with the year-on-year rate at 3.4%.

    EU’s Dombrovskis: Existing tariffs enough to shave up to 1.4% off US GDP, hit EU by 0.2%

    EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis acknowledged the US decision to pause reciprocal tariffs above 10% for 90 days as a positive step that opens the door to negotiations. However, he cautioned that the existing 10% duties still in place on nearly all countries continue to weigh on the global economy. Additionally, the US has not lifted its 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, cars, and car parts—measures that remain a significant source of transatlantic economic tension.

    Dombrovskis pointed to a model simulations indicating that the current US tariff structure could reduce US GDP by 0.8% to 1.4% through 2027. While the economic fallout for the EU is expected to be milder—around 0.2% of GDP—he warned that the damage could escalate dramatically if tariffs become entrenched or retaliatory actions intensify.

    Under such a worst-case scenario, Dombrovskis said US GDP could fall by as much as 3.3%, with the EU losing up to 0.6% and global GDP shrinking by 1.2%. The impact on global trade would be particularly severe, with an estimated contraction of 7.7% over the next three years.

    UK GDP rises 0.5% mom in Feb, broad-based growth

    The UK economy delivered a strong upside surprise in February, with GDP expanding by 0.5% mom, far exceeding market expectations of just 0.1% mom. All three major sectors contributed to the growth: services rose by 0.3% mom, production surged by 1.5% mom, and construction edged up 0.4% mom.

    On a three-month rolling basis, real GDP grew by 0.6% to February 2025 compared to the previous three months, driven largely by a 0.6% rise in services output and a 0.7% gain in production. Construction, however, was flat over the period.

    NZ BNZ manufacturing falls to 53.2, new orders signal trouble ahead

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index slipped slightly from 54.1 to 53.2 in March, but remained firmly in expansion territory. Production climbed to 54.2, the highest level since December 2021. Employment also posted a robust 54.7, marking its strongest result since mid-2021. However, a decline in new orders, which dipped below the 50-neutral mark to 49.6, raises concerns about the durability of this rebound.

    BusinessNZ’s Catherine Beard acknowledged the resilience in activity and employment, but highlighted persistent challenges. Despite improving sentiment, nearly 58% of surveyed manufacturers cited negative conditions, pointing to weak demand, fewer new orders, and uncertainty across both domestic and export channels.

    BNZ Senior Economist Doug Steel noted that the PMI data supports the case for manufacturing GDP growth in early 2025. Still, he cautioned that risks to the outlook are clearly tilted to the downside, “given recent extreme volatility on global markets following rapidly evolving US-driven trade policy changes.”

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1016; (P) 1.1129; (R1) 1.1315; More…

    EUR/USD’s rally is still in progress and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise form 1.0176 should target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1694. On the downside, below 1.1245 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained well above 1.0912 support to bring another rally.

    In the bigger picture, break of 1.1274 (2024 high) indicates resumption of whole up trend from 0.9534 (2022 low). Next target is 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through the multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.0745) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Mar 53.2 53.9 54.1
    23:50 JPY Money Supply M2+CD Y/Y Mar 0.80% 1.20% 1.20%
    06:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Mar F 0.30% 0.30% 0.30%
    06:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Mar F 2.20% 2.20% 2.20%
    06:00 GBP GDP M/M Feb 0.50% 0.10% -0.10% 0%
    06:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Feb 1.50% 0.10% -0.90% -0.50%
    06:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Feb 0.10% -2.30% -1.50% -0.50%
    06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Feb 2.20% 0.20% -1.10% -1%
    06:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Feb 0.30% -2.40% -1.50% -0.90%
    06:00 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Feb 0.60% 0.50% 0.40%
    06:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Feb -20.8B -17.9B -17.8B
    12:30 USD PPI M/M Mar -0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 0.10%
    12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Mar 2.70% 3.30% 3.20%
    12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Mar -0.10% 0.30% -0.10%
    12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Mar 3.30% 3.60% 3.40% 3.50%
    14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment Apr P 55 57
    14:00 USD UoM Inflation Expectations Apr P 5.00%

     



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  • Dollar Falls as Disinflation Accelerates, EU Holds Fire on Tariff Retaliation

    Dollar Falls as Disinflation Accelerates, EU Holds Fire on Tariff Retaliation


    Dollar faced renewed selling pressure in early US session, as markets digested softer-than-expected inflation data. The latest CPI report confirmed that disinflation is regaining traction, with both headline and core inflation easing more than expected in March. This strengthens the case for Fed to resume its rate cut cycle in the coming months.

    A May rate cut remains unlikely — with Fed fund futures currently pricing in an 84% chance of a hold. Markets are still more confident that a move will come by June, with odds now standing around 78%. If the disinflation trend persists, that expectation could soon become consensus.

    On the trade front, the mood is notably less tense today. The European Union announced a 90-day suspension of its first wave of retaliatory tariffs, originally planned in response to the US’s 25% steel and aluminum duties. This follows US decision to pause the broad reciprocal tariff for 90 days.

    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized, “We want to give negotiations a chance”. But she also made clear that the EU remains ready to act if talks fail. Preparatory work for broader countermeasures remains underway, with all options said to be “on the table.”

    Despite this temporary de-escalation, overall market sentiment remains shaky. US futures are pointing to a weaker open after yesterday’s massive relief rally, suggesting that investors are still wary of the underlying risks. In contrast, European markets are tracking Asia higher, but overall confidence is fragile.

    In the currency markets, Dollar is currently the worst performer of the week, followed by Sterling and Loonie. Swiss Franc continues to shine as a safe haven, with Aussie and Kiwi showing resilience as well. Meanwhile, Yen and Euro are positioning in the middle.

    Technically, Gold’s rebound from 2956.61 extended higher today. The strong support from 2956.09, as well as rising trend line, keeps Gold’s up trend intact. Nevertheless, corrective pattern from 3167.62 might still be incomplete. Break of 3048.43 support will start another down leg. Though, firm break of 3167.62 will confirm up trend resumption.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 3.84%. DAX is up 4.83%. CAC is up 4.49%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.073 at 4.742. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.049 at 2.640. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 9.13%. Hong Kong HSI rose 2.06%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.16%. Singapore Strait Times rose 5.43%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.095 to 1.377.

    US CPI surprise: Both headline and core inflation cools sharply in March

    US inflation came in much softer than expected in March, with headline CPI falling -0.1% mom, surprising markets that had forecast a 0.2% mom increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, also underwhelmed with just a 0.1% mom gain, well below the anticipated 0.3% mom. The pullback was led by a -2.4% mom drop in energy prices, while food costs continued to climb, rising 0.4% mom.

    On an annual basis, the CPI decelerated from 2.8% yoy to 2.4% yoy, lower than the expected 2.5% yoy. Core CPI also slowed to 2.8% yoy, down from 3.1% yoy, and marked the smallest 12-month increase since March 2021. The sharp drop in energy prices, down -3.3% yoy, played a significant role, although food inflation remained sticky at 3.0% yoy.

    US initial jobless claims rise to 223k, vs exp 222k

    US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 223k in the week ending April 5, slightly above expectation of 222k. Four-week moving average of initial claims was unchanged at 223k.

    Continuing claims fell -43k to 1850k in the week ending March 29. Four-week moving average of continuing claims fell -250 to 1868k.

    ECB’s Villeroy: Thank God we created Euro, as tariff turmoil undermines Dollar

    French ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau emphasized today that while the US has long championed the global centrality of the Dollar, recent policy moves on tariffs are beginning to erode international confidence in the greenback.

    Speaking on France Inter radio, Villeroy said the Trump administration’s approach is “very incoherent,” and suggested that its recent actions “play against the confidence” typically held in Dollar.

    He contrasted this with the Euro, praising Europe’s foresight in establishing its own independent monetary system 25 years ago. “Thank God that Europe… created the Euro,” he noted, adding that the bloc now enjoys “monetary autonomy” that allows ECB to manage interest rates in a way that diverges from US policy, something that was not possible in the past.

    RBA’s Bullock: Too early to call rate path amid tariff-driven uncertainty

    RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated today that it is “too early” to judge how escalating global trade war will shape the path of Australian interest rates. “it’s too early for us to determine what the path will be for interest rates,” she added.

    Bullock noted that “a period of uncertainty and adjustment” is inevitable as countries react to Washington’s trade moves. RBA plans to stay patient while assessing how these global shocks might affect both supply and demand dynamics. “It will take some time to see how all of this plays out,” she said.

    Japan’s PPI accelerates to 4.2% while import costs ease

    Japan’s PPI rose 4.2% yoy in March, a slight acceleration from February’s 4.1% yoy and topping expectations of 3.9% yoy rise. The increase was broad-based, with notable gains in food prices, which rose 3.1% yoy, and energy costs, with petroleum and coal prices surging by 8.6% yoy.

    Despite the uptick in domestic producer prices, import costs in Yen terms fell -2.2% yoy in March, extending the -0.9% decline in February. Export prices, however, rose a modest 0.3% yoy, slowing sharply from February’s 1.7% yoy growth.

    China’s CPI falls -0.1% yoy in March, PPI highlights persistent deflationary pressures

    China’s consumer inflation remained in negative territory for a second straight month in March, with CPI falling -0.1% yoy, missing expectations of 0.1% yoy increase. While the decline was narrower than February’s -0.7% yoy, it still reflects subdued demand pressures across the economy.

    Food prices was a drag, down -1.4% yoy, while service prices provided only modest support, rising 0.3% yoy. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up to 0.5% yoy from 0.3% previously, offering a slight glimmer of resilience.

    However, with headline inflation still hovering around zero and signs of consumer caution persisting, the broader disinflation trend appears entrenched.

    On a monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.4% mom, following February’s -0.2% mom decline, suggesting continued weakness in household spending momentum.

    Meanwhile, producer prices extended their decline for a 30th straight month, with PPI dropping -2.5% yoy, deeper than the expected -2.3%.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0876; (P) 1.0986; (R1) 1.1057; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains neutral first, but focus is immediately on 1.1145 resistance with today’s rebound. Firm break there will resume whole rally from 1.0176. Next target is 1.1213/74 key resistance zone next. In case of another retreat, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1145 at 1.0775 to complete the near term consolidation.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through the multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Mar 2% 8% 11%
    23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Mar 2.80% 3.10% 3.10% 3.00%
    23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Mar 4.20% 3.90% 4.00% 4.10%
    01:30 CNY CPI M/M Mar -0.40% -0.20%
    01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Mar -0.10% 0.10% -0.70%
    01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Mar -2.50% -2.30% -2.20%
    12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Feb 2.90% -0.90% -3.20% -4.30%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 4) 223K 222K 219K
    12:30 USD CPI M/M Mar -0.10% 0.20% 0.20%
    12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.40% 2.50% 2.80%
    12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.30% 0.20%
    12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Mar 2.80% 3.00% 3.10%
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 60B 29B

     



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  • Markets Stabilize as Tariff War Enters Complex Negotiation Battles

    Markets Stabilize as Tariff War Enters Complex Negotiation Battles


    Global market sentiment is showing tentative signs of stabilization. The tone improved slightly as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled that for countries choosing not to retaliate, the US has already reached a “maximum tariff level,” which could gradually be rolled back. However, this was far from a green light for relief, as the broader picture of US trade strategy continues to unfold.

    What’s becoming increasingly clear is that the US administration’s goals extend well beyond mere tariff reductions. Washington is also targeting non-tariff trade barriers such as government subsidies, currency policies, and broader regulatory practices. This shift complicates trade negotiations significantly, especially as each partner country faces vastly different economic and political constraints. The complexity will likely prolong the path to resolution.

    Different countries are responding in markedly different ways. China has chosen confrontation, swiftly imposing its own 34% retaliatory tariffs and now faces a threat from US President Donald Trump of an additional 50% levy if Beijing doesn’t back down in the coming days. China’s commerce ministry rebuked the threat, accusing the US of “blackmail,” signaling that neither side is ready to concede. The world’s two largest economies appear headed for a more protracted and damaging showdown.

    In contrast, the EU is walking a more calibrated line. While the European Commission did announce a narrow set of retaliatory tariffs on Monday evening—targeting the original US steel and aluminum duties—it has held off for now on countering the broader reciprocal measures. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic reiterated the bloc’s openness to negotiations, proposing a “zero-for-zero” approach for industrial goods. Still, he warned that the EU would not “wait endlessly,” and a broader retaliatory package is expected by the end of April.

    The situation with Japan is fluid too. While Tokyo has so far avoided direct retaliation, it’s clear that the US expects major concessions. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that upcoming talks with Japan will cover not only tariffs but also non-tariff trade barriers, government subsidies, and even currency policy. How Japan responds in this multi-dimensional negotiation will be critical, especially as the minority government faces domestic political pressure and a fragile recovery.

    Amidst this backdrop, traders are being cautioned to remain vigilant amid rising market noise and disinformation. False rumors—such as claims the US might delay its tariffs by 90 days or that Fed had called an emergency meeting—circulated widely but were promptly debunked.

    In the currency markets, Swiss Franc is currently the strongest one for the week, followed by Loonie, and then Aussie. Sterling is the worst performer, followed by Yen and then Kiwi. Dollar and Euro are positioning in the middle.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 5.51%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.58%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.91%. Singapore Strait Times is down -1.54%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0119 at 1.234. Overnight, DOW fell -0.91%. S&P 500 fell -0.23%. NASDAQ rose 0.10%. 10-year yield rose 0.170 to 4.155.

    Fed’s Kugler: Anchoring inflation expectations must remain top priority

    Fed Governor Adriana Kugler emphasized the importance of keeping inflation expectations well anchored in comments delivered to a Harvard economics class.

    She reaffirmed the Fed’s commitment to the 2% inflation target and stressed “It should be a priority to make sure that inflation doesn’t move up”.

    Kugler also noted that economic activity in the first quarter may have been stronger than previously anticipated, driven by consumer front-loading ahead of expected tariff hikes.

    While the full extent of tariff-related cost pass-through is yet to be seen, she acknowledged the financial strain such developments could place on households. That, she argued, is “exactly why we think we need to keep focus on that.”

    Fed’s Goolsbee: Must rely on hard data, no simple playbook for stagflation risks

    Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern that escalating trade tensions—through tariffs, retaliations, and potential counter-retaliations—could recreate the turbulent economic conditions of 2021–2022 when inflation was “raging out of control.”

    In an interview with CNN, he warned that if the tariff threats materialize to their full extent, especially if met with proportionate responses, the US economy risks slipping back into a period of high inflation and stagnating growth.

    However, Goolsbee also acknowledged that the situation remains fluid. He noted that negotiations could yet defuse the tension, especially if they result in new trade agreements. Referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s optimism about a coming “golden age of trade.”

    If stagflation begins to take hold, Goolsbee stressed, the Fed’s response would not be straightforward. The appropriate policy path would depend heavily on how growth and inflation evolve in the coming months.

    “Our job is to look at the hard data,” he said, underlining that in a scenario where both growth weakens and prices surge, there’s no “generic answer” to guide monetary policy.

    Aussie Westpac consumer sentiment slumps post-tariff shock; RBA seen tilting toward May rate cut

    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index plunged -6.0% in April, dropping from 95.9 to 90.1. The steep fall was notably skewed by the timing of the survey in relation to US announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

    Respondents surveyed before the announcement showed only a modest dip in sentiment to 93.9. Those surveyed after reported a sharp drop of nearly 10% to 86.6. .

    The sub-indices measuring sentiment towards the economy were particularly hard-hit, with the outlook for the next 12 months falling -5.7% to 90.5, and the 5-year outlook slipping back by -3.0%

    With RBA set to meet on May 19-20, Westpac believes the weakening external backdrop, coupled with softer inflation, will push RBA to deliver another 25 bps rate cut. RBA is likely to become “much more focused on downside risks to growth than lingering questions about inflation”.

    Australia NAB business confidence dips to -3 ahead of tariff impact

    Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index dipped slightly from -2 to -3 in March, remaining firmly in negative territory. Business Conditions, however, edged up from 3 to 4, a modest improvement that still leaves them slightly below average overall.

    Cost pressures remained broadly stable, with purchase costs rising 1.4% in quarterly equivalent terms and product price growth holding at 0.5%. Labour cost growth eased slightly.

    NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld noted that conditions continue to vary across industries, with the services sector faring best while manufacturing and retail remain under pressure.

    Importantly, this data predates the escalation of the global trade dispute, particularly the reciprocal tariff measures announced in early April. As Auld cautioned, these developments could “flow through to forward looking measures in the next survey.”

    EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8491; (P) 0.8541; (R1) 0.8621; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains on the upside for the moment. Current rise from 0.8221 is in progress for 0.8624 key cluster resistance next. Decisive break there will be an important indication of larger bullish trend reversal. On the downside, below 0.8520 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

    In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel resistance is a bullish signal. Down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) could have completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.9201 key support (2022 low). Firm break of 0.8624 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) will confirm this bullish case and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8867 next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.8624 will keep medium term outlook neutral at best.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence Q1 19% 16%
    23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Feb 2.32T 2.74T 1.94T 1.95T
    00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Apr -6.00% 4.00%
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Mar -3 -1 -2
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Mar 4 4
    05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Mar 45.3 45.6
    06:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Feb -6.2B -6.5B
    10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index Mar 101.3 100.7
    14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Mar 53.2 55.3
    14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey

     



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  • Stocks Extend Slump; EU Eyes Talks, US Signals Tough Stance

    Stocks Extend Slump; EU Eyes Talks, US Signals Tough Stance


    The global stock market rout continues to deepen today, with no clear signs of easing. Investor focus remains firmly on how the world is responding to the U.S.’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs. While equity markets crumble under the weight of growing uncertainty, developments out of Europe hint at a more constructive path—at least for now.

    A cautiously optimistic signal came from Europe, where leaders appear intent on prioritizing negotiations over immediate retaliation. In Luxembourg, EU ministers convened to assess their next steps, while European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized that “Europe is always ready for a good deal.” She noted that the EU has offered “zero-for-zero tariffs” on industrial goods in its ongoing attempts to preserve open trade.

    Despite this diplomatic posture, preparations for countermeasures are clearly underway. French Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin signaled that nothing is off the table, referencing the EU’s Anti-Coercion Instrument as a possible response. This mechanism would empower the bloc to restrict US service access or exclude American firms from public procurement within the EU—an unmistakable sign that Europe is readying its arsenal if negotiations break down.

    On the other hand, the tone from the US remains uncompromising. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro told CNBC that Vietnam’s offer of zero tariffs is “meaningless” without addressing non-tariff barriers, such as intellectual property theft and value-added tax disparities. “That’s a small first start,” Navarro later added, making it clear that tariff elimination alone won’t satisfy the Trump administration’s trade goals.

    This hardened stance suggests bilateral negotiations with the US will likely be prolonged and complex, especially with dozens of countries seeking exemptions or deals. The realization that tariff disputes are not simply about levies but about deeper structural trade practices is pushing expectations for a swift resolution further into the distance.

    In the currency markets, movement is relatively more measured compared to equities. Sterling is the weakest performer so far today, followed by Loonie and Kiwi. On the stronger end, Swiss Franc leads, followed by Aussie and Yen. Dollar and Euro are positioning in the middle. For now, FX traders may be waiting for further clarity before taking decisive positions, especially as trade negotiations unfold and market volatility remains elevated.

    Technically, Bitcoin is resuming the fall from 109571 today, and immediate focus is now on 73812 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 15452 to 109571 at 73617). Decisive break there will open up deeper correction to 61.8% retracement at 51405 in the medium term. That would be another drag on overall sentiment if realized.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -4.52%. DAX is down -4.67%. CAC is down -5.02%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.092 at 4.545. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.014 at 2.566. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -7.83%. Hong Kong HSI fell -13.22%. China Shanghai SSE fell -7.34%. Singapore Strait Times fell -7.46%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.04 to 1.116.

    Eurozone Sentix falls to -19.5, expectations collapse to -15.8 on trade war

    Investor sentiment in the Eurozone suffered a dramatic collapse in April, as the Sentix Investor Confidence Index plunged from -2.9 to -19.5, far below expectations of -8.7 and marking the lowest reading since October 2023. Current Situation Index dipped slightly from -21.7 to -23.3.

    The sharpest shock came from the Expectations Index, which nosedived from 18.0 to -15.8—its lowest level in 18 months and a staggering drop of -33.8 points, the second steepest fall ever recorded in Sentix history.

    Sentix directly attributed the deterioration to US President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures, stating that last month’s optimism across Germany and the broader EU had “evaporated.”

    The group warned that the early indicators point to a “massive problem,” with global economic stability seriously threatened. With Trump showing no signs of reversing course, Sentix cautioned that the tariff war is likely to “drag on longer than many assume,” fueling deeper disruptions.

    Eurozone retail sales rise 0.3% mom in Feb, EU up 0.2% mom

    Eurozone retail sales volumes rose by 0.3% mom in February, falling short of the expected 0.5% mom increase. The breakdown showed modest improvements across key segments: food, drinks, and tobacco sales were up 0.3% mom; non-food products excluding automotive fuel also rose 0.3% mom; while automotive fuel sales edged up 0.2% mom.

    Retail sales across the broader EU climbed just 0.2% mom, with notable divergence among member states. Cyprus led with a 4.7% gain, followed by Estonia (+2.2%) and Lithuania (+1.7%). Meanwhile, retail trade volumes declined in Bulgaria (-1.7%), the Netherlands (-1.4%), and Poland (-1.2%).

    ECB’s Stournaras: US Tariffs definitely deflationary, growth hit could reach 1%

    Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras warned that the US reciprocal tariffs were “worse than expected” and a source of “unprecedented” global policy uncertainty.

    In an interview with the Financial Times, he characterized the tariffs as “definitely a deflationary measure” for the Eurozone.

    “A notable adverse impact on growth could lead to activity being much weaker than expected, dragging inflation below our targets,” he added.

    While conceding it’s difficult to quantify the exact fallout, Stournaras projected a potential hit of between 0.5 to 1 percentage points to Eurozone growth.

    He refrained from speculating on whether the threat justifies a 50bps rate cut but underscored the seriousness of the downside risks.

    Japan’s real wages fall again despite nominal pay boost from bonuses

    Japan’s nominal wages rose 3.1% yoy in February, a notable jump from downwardly revised 1.8%yoy in January, matching expectations.

    However, this strong print was largely driven by a surge in special payments, which skyrocketed 77.4% yoy. Regular pay, considered a more stable indicator of wage trends, actually slowed to 1.6% yoy from the prior month’s 2.1% yoy, signaling only moderate momentum in base salary growth.

    Despite the upbeat headline figure, real wages—which adjust for inflation—fell for the second consecutive month, down -1.2% yoy. This came as consumer inflation, as calculated by the labor ministry, remained elevated at 4.3% yoy, down slightly from January’s 4.7% yoy.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0889; (P) 1.0999; (R1) 1.1072; More…

    EUR/USD is extending consolidations below 1.1145 and intraday bias remains neutral. Downside of retreat should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1145 at 1.0775 to bring rebound. On the upside, above 1.1145 will resume the rally from 1.0176 to 1.1213/74 key resistance zone next.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through the multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.10% 2.80% 1.80%
    05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Feb P 107.9 107.8 108.3
    06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Feb -1.30% -0.90% 2.00%
    06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 17.7B 17.8B 16.0B
    07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar 726B 735B
    08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr -19.5 -8.7 -2.9
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.30% 0.50% -0.30% 0.00%
    14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey

     



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  • Market Turmoil Unleashed as Global Tariff Battlelines Drawn

    Market Turmoil Unleashed as Global Tariff Battlelines Drawn


    The global financial markets were shaken last week as US President Donald Trump’s long-anticipated reciprocal tariff plan arrived with a bang. The magnitude of the tariff rates, the number of countries impacted, and the sheer complexity of implementation shocked investors. What could have been a temporary setback quickly spiraled into a broader risk event, fueling sharp selloffs and potentially igniting a full-fledged bear market.

    Matters only worsened after China swiftly responded with its own retaliatory measures. The rhetoric on both sides is heating up. Trump, doubling down on his hardline stance, declared on social media that his “policies will never change” and accused China of panicking. Meanwhile, Chinese officials dismissed the US measures, mockingly claiming, “The market has spoken.”

    With Washington and Beijing locked in confrontation, global focus now turns to how the rest of the world will react. The first clear sign of diplomacy came from Vietnam, where General Secretary To Lam phoned Trump and offered to negotiate a deal to reduce tariffs on US exports to zero, in exchange for equal treatment. If this sets a precedent, it may provide insight into whether Trump’s long-term vision is truly a bilateral web of lowered trade barriers. Or, he has something else in his mind.

    Still, the true litmus test lies ahead with the US-EU trade negotiations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has shown no signs of backing down, warning that the EU “holds a lot of cards” and that “all instruments are on the table.” Europe’s massive market and leadership in tech give it leverage, and should talks break down, the threat of firm and coordinated countermeasures looms large. The shape and tone of the US-EU discussions will be critical in determining whether a full-blown global trade war materializes, or if some de-escalation is still possible.

    In the currency markets, Swiss Franc emerged as the ultimate winner last week, solidifying its position as the top safe-haven asset, while Yen followed closely. Euro, notably, seems to be replacing Dollar as a safe-haven choice. The

    At the bottom of the currency ladder was the Aussie, which was hammered by China’s retaliation, given its economic dependence on Chinese demand. Kiwi followed while Sterling rounded out the bottom three. Loonie, and Dollar saw mixed results—gaining ground against commodity currencies but faltering against their safe-haven counterparts.

    Oversold Bounce Possible, Yet Trade War Escalations Keep Downside Risks Elevated

    Following last week’s brutal stock market selloff, there’s technical scope for a short-term rebound. Markets are deeply oversold, and some bargain-hunting or short coverers may lift equities from their recent lows in the days ahead. However, any recovery in risk sentiment will likely be capped by the still-heavy cloud of uncertainty surrounding the unfolding global tariff war.

    Despite the market’s hopes, it’s unrealistic to expect trade negotiations — especially those involving sweeping reciprocal tariffs and multiple major economies — to wrap up quickly. The threat of a prolonged standoff or even a complete breakdown in talks remains high. In such a case, a full-blown global trade war could be on the table, with wide-ranging consequences for investment, consumption, and global growth.

    Of particular concern is Europe’s position in this trade crossfire. Both the EU and ECB have previously flagged concerns that China could redirect excess supply to the EU if blocked by US tariffs. Such dumping would put further pressure on already weak growth and inflation in the region. To avoid this, Europe might be forced to erect its own trade barriers against China, risking retaliation and further fragmentation of global trade flows.

    In this increasingly fragile environment, the risks for a synchronized global slowdown looms large. However, unlike the Great Recession of 2008-09, unlikely the country could act as a buffer this time. China itself is now a central target in the trade conflict, and its export-driven model could face unprecedented pressure from multiple fronts. That leaves the world vulnerable to a more prolonged and widespread economic downturn if trade tensions escalate further.

    For traders and investors, the message is clear. Any near-term rally should be treated with caution. Rebounds may be sharp, but as long as key technical resistance levels in major indexes like DOW, Nikkei, or DAX remain intact, it’s premature to call it a return to normal. Until then, the base case remains a fragile market dominated by geopolitical risk, with any relief rallies vulnerable to sudden reversals.

    Technically, for DOW, it’s now at an important support zone of the long term rising trend line and 38.2% retracement of 28660.94 to 45071.29 at 38802.54. A rebound from current level would be reasonable, but risk will stay heavily on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 41260.37) holds. However, sustained break of 38802.54 will raise the change of even deeper correction to next key support at 55 M EMA (now at 35554.06).

    NASDAQ’s outlook was worse with the break of 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 20204.68 at 16340.36. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 17770.58) holds. Fall from 20204.58 should be on track to 55 M EMA (now at 14387.21) on next fall.

    Nikkei’s steep fall confirmed that corrective pattern from 42426.77 (2024 high) has already started the third leg. Strong bounce from current level will keep Nikkei inside the long term rising channel. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 37604.93) holds. Sustained trading below the channel support will bring even deeper fall to 55 M EMA (now at 31405.39) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 6994.89 (2009 low) to 42426.77 at 28891.80.

    Outlook in DAX is slightly better thanks to the strong rally in March. But still, near term risk will be on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 22102.60) holds. Fall from 23476.01 is seen as corrective the up trend from 11862.84 (2022 low only). There are a few levels ahead that could help floor the correction, including 55 W EMA (now at 19768.44), trend line support at around 19200, and 38.2% retracement of 11862.84 to 23476.01 at 19039.78.

    Will 100 Be the Savior for Sliding Dollar Index?

    Dollar Index staged a notable late-week rebound, closing at 103.02 on Friday, well off the week’s low of 101.26. The move helped ease immediate downside pressure. The 100 psychological level, along with the 55 M EMA (now at 101.01) could provide a floor in the near term and turn the index into consolidations. Still, firm break of 104.68 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming first. Or risk will remain on the downside.

    From a broader perspective, the fall from 110.17 is seen as the third leg of a larger correction originating from 114.77 (2022 high). Decisive break below key 99.57/100.15 support zone would open the door for deeper medium term fall to decade-long rising channel support (now at 95.80), or even further to 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

    A critical variable in Dollar’s path is the development of US Treasury yields. The sharp drop in the 10-year yield last week reinforces the view that the broader corrective pattern from 4.997 (2023 high) is in another downleg.

    Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 4.255) holds. Further decline is likely to 3.603 support.

    Even so, solid technical support should emerge from the 38.2% retracement of 0.398 to 4.997 at 3.240 to contain downside. That should provide some support to floor Dollar’s decline in the medium term.

    Swiss Franc Dominates in Europe, Would It Cap EUR/GBP Advance?

    Swiss Franc ended last week as the strongest European currency, outperforming both Euro and the risk-sensitive Sterling by a mile.

    GBP/CHF’s break of 1.1086 support suggests that whole rally from 1.0741 has completed at 1.1501. Deeper fall should be seen back to 1.0741 support first. Firm break there will argue that long term down trend is ready to resume through 1.0183 (2022 low). Meanwhile, above 1.1193 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

    As for EUR/CHF, focus is back on 0.9331 support after the sharp fall. Firm break there should confirm that rebound form 0.9204 has completed at 0.9660. More importantly, that would also confirm rejection by the long term channel resistance. Larger down trend might then be ready to resume through 0.9204.

    EUR/GBP resumed the rise from 0.8239 and hit as high as 0.8522, just shy of 100% projection of 0.8239 to 0.8448 from 0.8314 at 0.8523. The break of medium term falling channel resistance is a bullish sign. It’s also plausible that down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) has completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Firm break of 0.8523 will affirm this case, and target 0.8624 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) for confirmation of bullish reversal.

    However, for EUR/GBP to extend its bull run decisively, support is needed from a rebound in EUR/CHF. If EUR/CHF breaks down further below 0.9331 and drags on Euro more broadly, EUR/GBP would struggle to gain traction or even come under pressure itself.

    AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD in free fall

    Commodity currencies all declined broadly on risk aversion. But Aussie was the worst by far, particularly hard-hit following China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs against the US.

    AUD/CAD’s break of 0.8562 (2023 low) suggests that whole down trend from 0.9991 (2021 high) is resuming. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8853 support turned resistance holds, even in case of recovery. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.9375 to 0.9128 from 0.8853 at 0.8283.

    AUD/NZD’s break of 1.0789 support suggests that rise from 1.0567 has already completed at 1.1177 already. More importantly, whole rebound from 1.0469 (2022 low) could have finished as a three-wave corrective rise too. Near term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1.0904 support turned resistance holds. Deeper fall would be see back to 1.0567 support next. Firm break there will raise the chance that whole down trend from 1.1489 (2022 high) is ready to resume through 1.0469.

    USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

    USD/JPY’s fall from 158.86 resumed last week and hits as low as 144.54. But a temporary low should be formed with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.20 resistance holds. Below 144.54 will target 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. Break there will target 139.57 low.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.30) and even below.



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  • Tariff Sparks Risk Exodus; Euro Rises as Preferred Shelter

    Tariff Sparks Risk Exodus; Euro Rises as Preferred Shelter


    Risk-off sentiment swept across global financial markets today following the U.S. announcement of sweeping reciprocal tariffs. The sheer scale, complexity, and breadth of the trade measures surprised investors and rattled confidence. Equities in Europe and Japan suffered broad losses, but the brunt of the selloff appears to be landing squarely on US markets, where the mood has sharply deteriorated.

    Now the spotlight turns to whether bargain hunters will step in to stabilize equity markets and provide some relief through the rest of the week. Without a decisive rebound, there is a real risk that the current slide could deepen into a prolonged selloff through the rest of April, especially if the anticipated retaliation from global trading partners begins to materialize in the coming days.

    In currency markets, Dollar is being dumped across the board. Aussie is also among the weakest, likely suffering from its exposure to China. Surprisingly, Sterling joined the bottom three, mostly due to heavy selling against Euro and Swiss Franc.

    The standout performers are clearly the traditional safe-havens: Yen, Swiss Franc. Notably, Euro is emerging as the key substitute for the greenback in terms of liquidity and market depth. Loonie and Kiwi are holding in the middle.

    Technically, US 10-year yield’s strong break of 4.106 support confirms resumption of the whole decline from 4.809. Risk will now stay heavily on the downside as long as 4.226 resistance holds. Next target is 61.8% projection of 4.809 to 4.106 from 4.387 at 3.952.

    Strong support is anticipated there as it’s close to 4% mark. However, firm break of 3.952, especially sustained trading below the critical 4% psychological threshold — would likely deal a heavy blow to sentiment and spark even deeper losses in risk assets.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.38%. DAX is down -2.13%. CAC is down -2.80%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.111 at 4.536. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.079 at 2.644. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -2.77%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.52%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.24%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.30%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.129 to 1.351.

    US initial jobless claims fall to 219k vs exp 225k

    US initial jobless claims fell -6k to 219k in the week ending March 29, below expectation of 224k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -1k to 223k.

    Continuing claims rose 56k to 1903k in the week ending March 22, highest since November 13, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k to 1871k.

    ECB Accounts: March debate leaves April meeting open to cut or hold

    ECB’s March 5-6 meeting accounts revealed a heated debate among Governing Council members over both the 25bps rate cut decision and the tone of accompanying communications.

    With considerable uncertainty clouding the outlook—ranging from global trade policy to persistent services inflation—many policymakers urged caution, particularly in avoiding language that could be construed as forward guidance. The balance of risks, especially from tariff escalations and uneven disinflation, made it clear that any commitment to further cuts would be premature.

    A few members were only willing to support the March rate cut on the condition that the policy statement “avoided any indication of future cuts or of the future direction of trave”.

    This led to a debate on whether to remove the phrase “monetary policy remains restrictive”. In the end, Chief Economist Philip Lane’s proposed compromise—“monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive”—was broadly accepted.

    This phrasing was viewed as neutral enough to reflect the evolving inflation outlook without implying a preset path.

    Crucially, the ECB emphasized that the revised language should not signal the outcome of April’s meeting. “Both a cut and a pause” are “on the table, depending on the incoming data.

    ECB’s Nagel and Stournaras warn of economic fallout from US tariffs

    Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel issued a strong warning today, saying the US administration’s new tariff measures “endanger global economic stability.”

    Nagel emphasized the need for strong alliances and fewer trade barriers to tackle today’s global challenges, adding that the US is pursuing a “completely different direction” with economic policies that could leave many losers—especially within its own borders.

    Echoing these concerns, Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said the US tariffs are expected to weigh on Eurozone GDP growth rate by 0.3% to 0.4% in the first year, though he noted that the broader inflation outlook remains unaffected.

    Stournaras added that the US tariffs were “not an obstacle” to an ECB rate cut in April.

    Eurozone PPI rises 0.2% mom, 3.0% yoy in Feb

    Eurozone PPI rose 0.2% mom and 3.0% yoy in February. The monthly gain was primarily driven by a 0.4% mom increase in prices for intermediate goods, alongside smaller rises in energy (0.2% mom) and capital goods (0.2% mom) prices. Prices for durable consumer goods slipped slightly, down -0.1% mom, while non-durable consumer goods posted a mild 0.1% mom uptick. Excluding energy, total industrial prices increased by 0.2% mom.

    Across the broader EU, PPI rose 0.3% mom on the month and 3.1% yoy. The strongest monthly gains were recorded in Estonia (+9.5%), Romania (+4.8%), and Bulgaria (+2.5%), while declines were seen in Ireland (-4.9%), France, and Slovakia (both -0.8%).

    Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 50.9, steady but shaky

    Eurozone’s private sector continued to show signs of stabilization in March, with PMI Composite finalized at 50.9 — the highest in seven months — up from February’s 50.2. PMI Services was finalized at 51.0, up from prior month’s 50.6.

    Among the major economies, Germany stood out with a 10-month high at 51.3, while France remained in contraction despite improving to a five-month high at 48.0.

    Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, acknowledged that recession fears that loomed late last year are now giving way to cautious optimism. The Eurozone has managed to stay in growth territory for three straight months.

    Still, he warned that this fragile recovery could be easily thrown “off course again” by external shocks — namely, the newly announced US reciprocal tariffs.

    UK PMI services finalized at 52.5, outlook and employment subdued

    UK PMI Services was finalized at 52.5 in March, up from 51.0 in February, marking the highest level since August 2024. PMI Composite also improved to 51.5, a five-month high.

    The modest recovery in overall business activity was driven primarily by strength in the technology and financial services sectors, according to Tim Moore at S&P Global. However, this was offset by notable weakness in manufacturing, which experienced its steepest decline in output since October 2023.

    However, service providers expressed limited optimism about the near-term outlook, with confidence levels hovering near two-year lows. The labor market also continued to show signs of strain, with March marking the sixth consecutive month of job losses due to hiring freezes and redundancies.

    Price pressures remain a concern. The inflation indicators within the survey suggest that cost and pricing pressures in the services sector are still running significantly hotter than the pre-pandemic decade.

    Swiss CPI unchanged at 0.3% yoy in Mar, misses expectations

    Swiss consumer inflation remained subdued in March, with headline CPI unchanged on the month, below the expected 0.1% mom rise. Core CPI (excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel) rose just 0.1% mom. The breakdown showed a -0.1% mom decline in domestic product prices, offset somewhat by a 0.5% mom rise in prices of imported products.

    On an annual basis, headline CPI held steady at just 0.3% yoy, missing expectations for an uptick to 0.5% yoy. Core inflation also remained unchanged at 0.9% yoy. The slight increase in domestic product inflation from 0.9% yoy to 1.0% yoy suggests some persistence in local cost pressures. But overall imported inflation remains deeply negative at -1.7% yoy, down from -1.5% yoy.

    Japan’s PMI composite finalized at 48.9, back in contraction

    Japan’s services sector lost momentum in March, with the final PMI Services reading falling to the neutral mark of 50.0, down sharply from 53.7 in February. Composite PMI dropped to 48.9—its lowest since November 2022—signaling contraction in overall private sector activity.

    S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that while new orders and export business in services remained in growth territory, market conditions had clearly softened.

    Additionally, input costs across the private sector rose at the fastest pace in seven months, and output price inflation remained historically elevated.

    Business sentiment also deteriorated, with overall optimism about the year-ahead outlook for output falling to its lowest since January 2021.

    China’s Caixin PMI services rises to 51.9, but deflation and jobs remain concerns

    China’s Caixin Services PMI ticked up to 51.9 in March from 51.4, while Composite PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.5, marking the 17th consecutive month of expansion.

    According to Caixin Insight Group’s Wang Zhe, both supply and demand showed improvement, particularly in manufacturing. However, service sector employment dragged overall job growth, and price pressures remained weak.

    Despite signs of recovery and a stable start to the year, persistent deflationary pressures and a sluggish job market continue to weigh on sentiment. Wang noted that weak domestic demand and cautious market expectations were limiting momentum.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0785; (P) 1.0855; (R1) 1.0929; More…

    EUR/USD’s rally accelerates to as high as 1.1145 so far, and met 61.8% projection of 1.0358 to 1.0953 from 1.0731 at 1.1099 already. Intraday bias stays on the upside. Sustained trading above 1.1099 will pave the way 1.1274 key resistance, and probably further to o 100% projection at 1.1326. On the downside, below 1.1002 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.

    In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0692) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0731 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    00:30 JPY Services PMI Mar F 50 49.5 49.5
    01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Feb 2.97B 5.40B 5.62B 5.16B
    01:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI Mar 51.9 51.6 51.4
    06:30 CHF CPI M/M Mar 0 0.10% 0.60%
    06:30 CHF CPI Y/Y Mar 0.30% 0.50% 0.30%
    07:50 EUR France Services PMI Mar 47.9 46.6 46.6
    07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Mar 50.9 50.2 50.2
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Mar 51 50.4 50.4
    08:30 GBP Services PMI Mar 52.5 53.2 53.2
    09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Feb 0.20% 0.40% 0.80% 0.70%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Feb 3% 1.80% 1.70%
    11:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
    11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Mar 204.80% 103.20%
    12:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Feb -1.5B 2.5B 4.0B 3.1B
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 28) 219K 225K 224K 225K
    12:30 USD Trade Balance (USD) Feb -122.7B -110.0B -131.4B -130.7B
    13:45 USD Services PMI Mar F 54.3 54.3
    14:00 USD ISM Services PMI Mar 53.1 53.5
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 27B 37B

     



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  • Sterling and Euro Rebound, Gold Jumps Amid Intensifying Trade Tensions

    Sterling and Euro Rebound, Gold Jumps Amid Intensifying Trade Tensions


    Global headlines remain focused on US President Donald Trump’s unfolding tariff regime. But traders are telling a slightly different story. FTSE and DAX slip into negative territory, but the pullback in equities remains limited. Sterling and Euro are both strengthening against Dollar indeed.

    Tones out of London and Brussels are in stark contrast. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves signaled a desire to avoid escalation, saying the UK has no intention to join the trade war at this stage. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck a firmer stance, warning the US tariffs would harm businesses and consumers. EU also vowed retaliation with a “robust toolbox.”

    So far, it appears that the bounce in EUR/USD and GBP/USD are mainly due to Dollar’s own weakness. If anything, Dollar’s decline suggests traders might already be pre-positioning for next week’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs. But it’s hard to draw firm conclusions yet, especially with quarter-end portfolio adjustments likely distorting some of the price action across assets.

    In the broader currency markets, commodity currencies remain firmly in control. Aussie has taken over as the week’s leader, followed by Loonie and Kiwi. At the other end of the spectrum, Yen remains the weakest. Euro and Dollar are trailing just ahead of Yen, while Sterling and Swiss Franc sit in the middle of the performance board.

    Technically, Gold is having a strong session, rebounding sharply as traders digest the latest trade rhetoric. Rise from 2832.31 might still have one more leg. But we’d maintain that upper channel resistance (now at around 3080) should post strong resistance to limit upside and bring correction. Break of 3012.37 support will bring deeper pull back to 2956.09 resistance turned support and below.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.84%. DAX is down -1.20%. CAC is down -0.72%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.058 at 4.791. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.026 at 2.774. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.60%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.41%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.15%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.45%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.005 to 1.592.

    US initial jobless claims falls to 224k vs exp 225k

    US initial jobless claims fell -1k to 224k in the week ending March 22, versus expectation of 225k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -5k to 224k. Continuing claims fell -25k to 1856k in the week ending March 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 2k to 1870k.

    Also released, goods exports rose 4.1% mom to USD 178.6B, seasonally adjusted, in February. Goods imports fell -0.2% mom to USD 326.5B. Trade balance reported USD 147.9B deficit, larger than expectation of USD 134.6B.

    Q4 GDP growth was finalized at 2.4% annualized. GDP price index was finalized at 2.3%.

    ECB’s Wunsch: April rate pause should be on the table

    Belgian ECB Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch suggested that pausing rate cuts in April should at least be “on the table”, and highlighted how tariff-induced stagflation poses a policy dilemma.

    Wunsch warned that tariffs would complicate ECB’s path forward: “To the extent that tariffs will impact the economy … this will have an impact on our decision-making,” he noted.

    While downplaying the immediate importance of April’s tariff development, Wunsch stressed that “It’s going to have an impact over the medium term.”

    In contrast, Latvian Governing Council member Martins Kazaks suggested that if ECB’s baseline scenario holds, a “gradual reduction in rates in the future” could be expected.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2858; (P) 1.2905; (R1) 1.2935; More…

    GBP/USD rebounded notably today but stays in range below 1.3013 short term top. Intraday bias remains neutral first. Corrective fall from 1.3013 could still extend lower to channel support (now at 1.2806). But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2248 to 1.3013 at 1.2721 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Feb 4.00% 3.80% 3.60% 3.80%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 21) 224K 225K 223K 225K
    12:30 USD GDP Annualized Q4 F 2.40% 2.30% 2.30%
    12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 F 2.30% 2.40% 2.40%
    12:30 USD Goods Trade Balance (USD) Feb P -147.9B -134.6B -155.6B
    12:30 USD Wholesale Inventories Feb P 0.30% 0.70% 0.80%
    14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Feb 0.90% -4.60%
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 37B 9B

     



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  • Dollar Recovers as Markets Await Fed Projections, Gold Loses Some Momentum

    Dollar Recovers as Markets Await Fed Projections, Gold Loses Some Momentum


    Dollar is recovering across the board as markets enter the US session, though the move appears to be more caution-driven than a shift in sentiment. With FOMC rate decision looming, traders are taking a more neutral stance rather than doubling down on Dollar’s recent weakness. Fed is widely expected to keep rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, so the real focus will be on the updated economic projections. Given the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, these forecasts could offer the first glimpse of how policymakers are factoring in US President Donald Trump’s tariffs into their outlook.

    Since the last FOMC meeting in December, the U.S. has implemented its first set of tariffs under the Trump administration. Now, the markets are preparing for the ambitious reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in early April. While tariff impacts may not be fully reflected in Fed’s projections yet, traders will be looking for any revisions to growth and inflation forecasts that could indicate whether policymakers are growing more concerned about trade war risks. If the Fed acknowledges increased downside risks to growth or upward pressures on inflation, markets could adjust their rate cut expectations accordingly.

    Meanwhile, Euro is on the weaker side as Eurozone CPI for February was finalized slightly lower than initial estimates. Comments from ECB officials today are typically cautious. French ECB Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau reiterated that the timing and size of rate cuts will depend on data. Meanwhile, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos emphasized that defense spending remains Europe’s top priority, but warned that budget stability must be maintained within the bloc’s fiscal rules.

    For the day so far, Dollar is the strongest performer, followed by the Loonie and Sterling. On the weaker side, Kiwi is the worst performer, followed by Aussie and Euro. Yen and Swiss Franc are positioning in the middle.

    Technically, Gold is losing momentum as it approaches 61.8% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3062.21. This level is close to a key medium-term rising channel resistance, making it a critical test for gold bulls. A break below 3004.76 resistance-turned-support would signal the first rejection at the resistance zone, and leads to a near term pullback.

    However, if Dollar resumes its selloff after Fed’s announcement, Gold could break through 3062.21, probably triggering upside acceleration towards 100% projection at 3204.26.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.07%. DAX is down -0.81%. CAC is up 0.36%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.003 at 4.65. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.007 at 2.806. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.25%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.12%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.10%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.026 to 1.531.

    Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.3% in Feb, core CPI at 2.6%

    Eurozone headline CPI was finalized at 2.3% yoy in February, down from 2.5% yoy in January. Core CPI , which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, eased slightly to 2.6% yoy from 2.7% yoy.

    The largest driver of Eurozone inflation was services, contributing +1.66 percentage points, followed by food, alcohol, and tobacco (+0.52 pp). Non-energy industrial goods and energy made smaller contributions, with energy adding just +0.01 pps.

    In the broader EU, inflation was finalized at 2.7% yoy, down from 2.8% yoy in January. Inflation disparities across member states remain stark, with France (0.9%), Ireland (1.4%), and Finland (1.5%) registering the lowest rates, while Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.2%), and Estonia (5.1%) recorded the highest. Compared to January, inflation declined in 14 member states, remained unchanged in six, and increased in seven.

    BoJ holds rates, flags exchange rate as key inflation factor

    BoJ kept its uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at around 0.50%, as widely expected.

    In its statement, BoJ noted that growth is expected to remain above potential, while inflation progress remains on track toward its 2% target. However, policymakers flagged high levels of uncertainty, particularly citing global trade tensions and policy shifts in major economies as key risks.

    A notable shift in BoJ’s tone was its heightened focus on exchange rate movements as a key factor influencing inflation. The central bank acknowledged that with firms increasingly raising wages and prices, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, “more likely to affect prices”.

    This suggests that further depreciation in Yen could accelerate price increases, and influence future monetary policy decisions.

    Japan’s export rises 11.4% yoy in Feb, up for fifth straight month

    Japan’s exports surged 11.4% yoy to JPY 9,191B in February, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by strong demand from both the US and China. Exports to the US rose 10.5% yoy, while shipments to China saw an even stronger 14.1% yoy increase.

    Meanwhile, imports declined by -0.7% yoy, marking their first drop in three months, as demand for crude oil and coal weakened. This shift in trade dynamics helped Japan return to a trade surplus of JPY 584.5B, the first positive balance in two months.

    On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 4.0% mom to JPY 9,688B, while imports fell -4.1% mom to JPY 9,505B, leading to a JPY 182B surplus.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2967; (P) 1.2988; (R1) 1.3025; More…

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with current retreat. Another rise is expected as long as 1.2910 support holds. Above 1.3009 will resume the rally from 1.2099 to retest 1.3433 high. However, firm break of 1.2910 will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That would turn intraday bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    20:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Survey Q1 89.2 97.5
    21:45 NZD Current Account (NZD) Q4 -7.04B -6.64B -10.58B -10.84B
    23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb 0.10% 0.13%
    23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Feb 0.18T 0.51T -0.86T -0.60T
    02:25 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan F -1.10% -1.10% -1.10%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb F 2.30% 2.40% 2.40%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb F 2.60% 2.60% 2.60%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.8M 1.4M
    18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
    18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

     



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  • Dollar Stays Weak as Markets Await Fed Guidance, Yen Softens After BoJ Hold

    Dollar Stays Weak as Markets Await Fed Guidance, Yen Softens After BoJ Hold


    Dollar remains under pressure as markets await FOMC rate decision and, more crucially, the updated economic projections. While the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, traders are looking for any signs that Fed officials are adjusting their outlook in response to mounting trade tensions. Meanwhile, US stocks saw another selloff overnight, led by the tech sector, though major indexes have so far held above last week’s lows. Sentiment remains fragile, and any dovish elements in Fed’s projections could trigger another round of risk aversion and Dollar weakness. However, the biggest market move may be on hold until April 2, when the final decision on reciprocal tariffs is expected.

    Japanese Yen is also soft in a tight range after BoJ left monetary policy unchanged earlier today. While this decision was widely anticipated, some market participants noted that the earlier-than-usual timing of the announcement suggested that the BoJ was not yet ready to accelerate rate hikes. Yen has also weakened this week on broader risk-on sentiment in Asia, despite the selloff in US equities.

    On the other hand, Euro remains firm, though lacking decisive upside momentum. Germany’s parliament approved the massive fiscal expansion plan yesterday, marking a historic departure from the country’s long-standing fiscal conservatism. This move has given CDU/CSU leader Friedrich Merz a significant political boost as he continues talks with the Social Democrats to form a centrist coalition government. While some economists argue that Germany’s fiscal expansion is the most significant since reunification, they also warned that structural reforms will be necessary to turn this spending into sustainable growth.

    Looking at currency performance this week, Kiwi is leading gains, followed by Swiss Franc and Aussie. In contrast, Yen remains the weakest performer, followed by Dollar and Sterling. Euro and Loonie are positioned in the middle of the pack.

    Technically, CHF/JPY is among the top movers this week so far. The extended rebound and firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 162.27) suggests that fall from 177.29 has completed at 165.83 already. The whole corrective pattern from 180.05 might have finished too. Further rise is now expected to trend line resistance at 173.95 first. Firm break there will solidify this bullish case and target 177.29/180.05 resistance zone next.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.03%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.09%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.18%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.011 at 1.517. Overnight, DOW fell -0.62%. S&P 500 fell -1.07%. NASDAQ fell -1.71%. 10-year yield fell -0.025 to 4.281.

    BoJ holds rates, flags exchange rate as key inflation factor

    BoJ kept its uncollateralized overnight call rate unchanged at around 0.50%, as widely expected.

    In its statement, BoJ noted that growth is expected to remain above potential, while inflation progress remains on track toward its 2% target. However, policymakers flagged high levels of uncertainty, particularly citing global trade tensions and policy shifts in major economies as key risks.

    A notable shift in BoJ’s tone was its heightened focus on exchange rate movements as a key factor influencing inflation. The central bank acknowledged that with firms increasingly raising wages and prices, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, “more likely to affect prices”.

    This suggests that further depreciation in Yen could accelerate price increases, and influence future monetary policy decisions.

    Japan’s export rises 11.4% yoy in Feb, up for fifth straight month

    Japan’s exports surged 11.4% yoy to JPY 9,191B in February, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth, driven by strong demand from both the US and China. Exports to the US rose 10.5% yoy, while shipments to China saw an even stronger 14.1% yoy increase.

    Meanwhile, imports declined by -0.7% yoy, marking their first drop in three months, as demand for crude oil and coal weakened. This shift in trade dynamics helped Japan return to a trade surplus of JPY 584.5B, the first positive balance in two months.

    On a seasonally adjusted basis, exports rose 4.0% mom to JPY 9,688B, while imports fell -4.1% mom to JPY 9,505B, leading to a JPY 182B surplus.

    Fed to stand pat, watch for signs of trade war fallout in new projections

    Fed is set to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25-4.50% today. The focus will be on the updated economic projections, which may drop hints that Fed is beginning to pre-empt a full-blown trade war into its outlook. Additionally, another key element to watch will be the closely followed “dot plot”, which will reveal whether Fed still expects two rate cuts this year.

    Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference is important as usual, as he will need to balance Fed’s current economic assessment with the risks posed by US President Donald Trump’s trade policy. However, with no details on the big event of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, Powell is unlikely to offer any concrete guidance. Instead, he may just reiterate the central bank’s stance that it is “in no hurry” to cut rates and emphasize a data-dependent approach.

    Currently, Fed fund futures indicate that June and September are the most likely timing for policy easing.

    One key market reaction to watch will be 10-year Treasury yield, which recovery has clearly lost momentum well ahead of 55 D EMA (now at 4.389). Any dovish tilt from Fed today could push yields back toward 4.106 support. That would in turn keep Dollar under pressure.

    Though, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 3.603 to 4.809 at 4.063 is not anticipated for now, at least until the tariff picture is cleared or there are more signs of recession in the US. On the upside, any rebound should be limited by 55 D EMA.

    EUR/USD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0907; (P) 1.0931; (R1) 1.0969; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the upside for the moment. Current rally from 1.0176 should target 1.1274 key resistance. On the downside, though, break of 1.0821 support will indicate short term topping, likely with bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. That will turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

    In the bigger picture, prior strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    20:00 NZD Westpac Consumer Survey Q1 89.2 97.5
    21:45 NZD Current Account (NZD) Q4 -7.04B -6.64B -10.58B -10.84B
    23:30 AUD Westpac Leading Index M/M Feb 0.10% 0.13%
    23:50 JPY Trade Balance (JPY) Feb 0.18T 0.51T -0.86T -0.60T
    02:25 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    04:30 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan F -1.10% -1.10% -1.10%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Feb F 2.60% 2.60%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Feb F 2.40% 2.40%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.8M 1.4M
    18:00 USD Fed Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
    18:30 USD FOMC Press Conference

     



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  • Asian Markets Stay Firm, German Vote and Canadian Inflation in Focus

    Asian Markets Stay Firm, German Vote and Canadian Inflation in Focus


    Risk appetite in Asian markets has been solid this week, support by optimism surrounding China’s latest measures to boost domestic consumption. Hong Kong stocks continue to lead gains in the region. Meanwhile, in the forex markets, both New Zealand and Australian Dollars are holding firm, though the Aussie is slightly lagging due to rising trade tensions with the US. As tariff threats continue to evolve, the Australian economy is relatively more vulnerable to disruptions in trade, keeping a cap on the currency’s momentum. Meanwhile,

    Japanese Yen has weakened notably, weighed down by the prevailing risk-on sentiment in the region. Additionally, traders are solidifying expectations that BoJ will keep rates unchanged in this week’s policy decision, leaving any rate hike for future meetings. Though, any hints from Governor Kazuo Ueda about the timing of future hikes could rejuvenate Yen’s rebound. .

    In Europe, attention turns to Germany, where ZEW economic sentiment index is expected to show early signs of optimism surrounding the incoming government’s EUR 500B infrastructure and defense spending plan. Also, Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz faces a crucial parliamentary vote on this plan today, and while it is broadly expected to pass, there remains an outside risk of legal intervention. The far-right Alternative für Deutschland party has challenged the speed of the legislation’s introduction. Merz might get the court’s verdict soon.

    Meanwhile, Canada’s inflation data will be in focus, as markets assess BoC’s next policy steps, which are heavily complicated by trade war. OECD has significantly downgraded Canada’s growth forecast, citing trade war risks and economic fallout from US tariffs. However, OECD also warned of inflationary pressures, suggesting that if Canada faces 25% retaliatory tariffs from the US, borrowing costs could stay higher for longer. This places the BoC in a difficult position, as it must balance slowing growth with the risk of persistent price pressures.

    Technically, EUR/CAD should have formed a short term top at 1.5856 on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Deeper retreat might be seen to 55 4H EMA (now at 1.5548). But downside should be contained by 1.5401 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4740 to 1.5856 at 1.5430 to bring rebound. Larger up trend is expected to resume through 1.5856 at a later stage.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei rose 1.23%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.12%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.14%. Singapore Strait Times is up 1.12%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.0.007 at 1.510. Overnight, DOW rose 0.85%. S&P 500 rose 0.64%. NASDAQ rose 0.31%. 10-year yield fell -0.002 to 4.306.

    RBA’s Hunter cautious on further rate cuts, Treasurer warns of trade war’s indirect impacts

    RBA Chief Economist and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter reinforced the central bank’s cautious stance on further rate cuts. She emphasized in a speech today that while the February cut was deemed an appropriate time to “take some restrictiveness away”, the Board were “more cautious than the market about prospects for further easing”.

    Hunter highlighted that US policy settings and their impact on the global economy as “one of the things we are focused on right now.

    She added that policy decisions are always made in uncertain environments, where the baseline forecast is just one of many possible scenarios rather than a strict roadmap for future moves. The link between economic forecasts and rate decisions is “not mechanical”.

    Separately, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers acknowledged that the direct impact of US tariffs on Australia is “concerning, but manageable”. But he warned that the larger risk lies in a broader global trade war. He described the current environment as a “new world of uncertainty”, where the spillover effects from rising trade tensions could have far-reaching consequences for Australia’s economy.

    Gold extends record run above 3000 on geopolitical and trade risks

    Gold surged further above the 3000 psychological level today, extending its record-breaking rally as geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions, and global monetary easing continue to fuel demand.

    Trade tensions remain front and center with investors are piling into the precious metal ahead of the April 2 deadline, when reciprocal and sectoral tariffs will take effect on US trading partners. US President Donald Trump reinforced his stance, declaring that the new tariffs would mark “liberation day” for the US, with broader reciprocal tariffs and sector-specific duties, particularly on steel and aluminum used in auto production.

    Meanwhile, attention is also on Trump’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin today, where discussions will reportedly cover territorial issues and energy infrastructure, likely including Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Any escalation or breakthrough in these discussions could have broader implications for markets,

    Technically, Gold’s up trend remains on track to 61.8% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3062.21. which is close to the medium-term channel resistance.

    Rejection by the resistance zone, followed by break of 2956.09 resistance turned support will risk a correction back towards 55 D EMA (now at 2841.83) first.

    However, strong break above the channel resistance would prompt acceleration in Gold’s uptrend. In such a scenario, gold could quickly reach 100% projection at 3204.26.

    Looking ahead

    Swiss SECO economic forecasts, German ZEW economic sentiment, and Eurozone trade balance will be released in European session. Later in the day, Canada CPI will be the main focus. US will publish housing starts and building permits, import prices, and industrial production.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 147.89; (P) 148.45; (R1) 149.20; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/JPY stays neutral at this point. While recovery from 146.52 might extend further, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 148.22 minor support will bring retest of 146.52 low first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way to 139.57 support. However, decisive break of 150.92 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias to the upside for 154.79 resistance instead.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    04:30 JPY Tertiary Industry Index M/M Jan -0.30% -0.10% 0.10%
    08:00 CHF SECO Economic Forecasts
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (EUR) Jan 14.1B 14.6B
    10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar 48.1 26
    10:00 EUR Germany ZEW Current Situation Mar -80.5 -88.5
    10:00 EUR Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Mar 43.6 24.2
    12:30 CAD CPI M/M Feb 0.60% 0.10%
    12:30 CAD CPI Y/Y Feb 2.10% 1.90%
    12:30 CAD CPI Median Y/Y Feb 2.70% 2.70%
    12:30 CAD CPI Trimmed Y/Y Feb 2.80% 2.70%
    12:30 CAD CPI Common Y/Y Feb 2.20% 2.20%
    12:30 USD Building Permits Feb 1.45M 1.47M
    12:30 USD Housing Starts Feb 1.38M 1.37M
    12:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Feb -0.10% 0.30%
    13:15 USD Industrial Production M/M Feb 0.20% 0.50%
    13:15 USD Capacity Utilization Feb 77.80% 77.80%

     



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  • Dollar Edges Lower Post-Retail Sales, But Cautious Traders Keep Selling Momentum Limited

    Dollar Edges Lower Post-Retail Sales, But Cautious Traders Keep Selling Momentum Limited


    Dollar edged lower in early U.S. trading following weaker-than-expected retail sales data. However, the downside pressure remained limited, as investors took comfort in the fact that February’s sales growth marked a return to expansion after contraction in January. The data helped ease fears of an extended downturn in consumer spending, with markets breathing a sigh of relief that demand has not fallen into a prolonged slump. Still, with Fed’s policy decision and updated economic projections looming midweek, traders remain cautious and hesitant to take aggressive positions.

    Beyond Fed, geopolitical developments are also on investors’ minds. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss potential steps toward ending the war in Ukraine. This follows positive talks between US and Russian officials in Moscow, raising hopes that diplomatic efforts could progress. However, it remains uncertain whether concrete agreements will emerge, and markets will be closely monitoring any developments that could impact global risk sentiment.

    Meanwhile, Euro traders are also in wait-and-see mode, with focus squarely on Germany’s parliamentary vote on Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s proposed state borrowing program tomorrow. The budget committee approved the plans on Sunday, but the vote faces last-minute legal challenges from the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which has petitioned the constitutional court, arguing that there was insufficient time for expert scrutiny. If the challenge gains traction, it could delay or complicate the EUR500B infrastructure and defense spending program.

    Adding to concerns for Germany, the Munich-based Ifo Institute released a bleak economic forecast, predicting that the country’s economy will grow by just 0.2% this year, following two consecutive years of contraction. The report cited weak demand for industrial goods and increasing competitive pressures from global markets as key drags on growth.

    In the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is currently the strongest performer, followed by Australian Dollar, both of which are benefiting from renewed optimism surrounding China’s “special action plan” to boost consumption. On the other end, Japanese Yen is the weakest, followed by Dollar and Euro. The British pound and Swiss Franc are currently in the middle of the pack.

    Technically, AUD/NZD’s decline from 1.1173 accelerates lower today. Immediate focus is now on 1.0940 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0567 to 1.1177 at 1.0944). Strong rebound from there will keep the up trend from 1.0567 intact for another rally through 1.1177 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0940/4 will complete a double top pattern (1.1177, 1.1173), and indicates bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0800 next.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.26%. DAX is up 0.26%. CAC is up 0.40%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.023 at 4.651. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.060 at 2.819. Earlier in Asia,Nikkei rose 0.93%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.77%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.19%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.61%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.025 to 1.503.

    OECD trims global growth outlook amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty

    OECD forecasts a slight slowdown in global economic growth over the next two years, reflecting the effects of escalating trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty. In its Interim Economic Outlook, OECD projects global growth will ease from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, and further to 3.0% in 2026. These numbers represent a downgrade from its previous forecasts, which projected 3.3% growth for both this year and next.

    Among advanced economies, the US is expected to lose momentum, with growth forecast at 2.2% in 2025 before cooling to 1.6% in 2026—down from earlier estimates of 2.4% and 2.1%.

    Meanwhile, Eurozone is projected to increase from 1.0% growth this year to 1.2% in 2026. Although this marks an improvement relative to 2024’s mild performance, it still lags the OECD’s previous forecasts of 1.3% and 1.5%.

    The imposition of higher tariffs is expected to weigh particularly heavily on North American economies beyond the US. Canada’s growth rate is set to slow to 0.7% this year and next, well below the 2% previously estimated.

    Mexico would be hit hardest, with its economy forecast to contract by -1.3% in 2025 and a further -0.6% the following year—reversing prior expectations for moderate growth.

    By contrast, China appears relatively well-positioned to manage the fallout from higher tariffs. OECD anticipates that targeted government stimulus will support growth to 4.8% in 2025—slightly above the previous forecast of 4.7%—before moderating to 4.4% in 2026.

    OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann warned that signs of weakness are emerging in the global economy, primarily due to “heightened policy uncertainty.” He added that “increasing trade restrictions” will raise costs for both production and consumption.

    US retail sales rises 0.2% mom in Feb, ex-auto sales up 0.3% mom

    US retail sales grew 0.2% mom to USD 722.7B in February, well below expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 584.7B , below expectation of 0.5% mom.

    Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom. to USD 669.9B. Ex-auto& gasoline sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 627.2B.

    Total sales for December through February period was up 3.8% from the same period a year ago.

    ECB’s de Guindos: Trump’s tariffs complicate ECB’s monetary policy decisions

    ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos acknowledged that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have made the central bank’s monetary policy decisions more challenging, creating an environment of increased uncertainty.

    Speaking to Spanish radio Onda Cero, de Guindos noted that the “clarity regarding future decisions” has diminished in a situation “much more opaque than just six months ago.”

    He also pushed back ECB’s inflation target timeline, stating that inflation is now expected to reach the 2% goal in Q1 2026, later than the previous mid-2025 projection, due to the impact of higher energy prices.

    Despite these concerns, de Guindos remained cautiously optimistic that “everything is moving in the right direction.” While tariffs could lead to some short-term inflationary effects, he suggested that slower economic activity resulting from trade disruptions could ultimately offset these pressures over time.

    NZ BNZ services falls to 49.1, slips back into contraction

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell back into contraction territory in February, dropping from 50.4 to 49.1. The index remains well below its long-term average of 53.0.

    Key components of the survey also showed deterioration, with Activity/Sales slipping from 53.8 to 49.2, New Orders/Business falling from 50.0 to 49.4, and Stocks/Inventories declining from 50.0 to 48.0. While Employment showed a slight improvement, rising from 47.4 to 48.9, it remains in contraction.

    Despite the sector’s renewed contraction, negative sentiment among businesses showed a modest improvement, with 57.8% of comments in February expressing pessimism, down from 61.9% in January. Most firms cited the challenging economic climate as their primary concern.

    BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “while one might have hoped that the PSI would move higher again, we know that economic turning points can be messy. The brief foray above 50 in January remains the only month in the last year the PSI hasn’t been in contraction”.

    China’s data shows resilient start in 2025, government unveils plan to boost consumption

    China’s economy got off to a stronger-than-expected start in the first two months of the year. Industrial production grew 5.9% yoy, beating market expectations of 5.3% yoy. Retail sales also exceeded forecasts, rising 4.0% yoy compared to an expected 3.8% yoy, reflecting improving consumer demand.

    Meanwhile, fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% yoy, surpassing projections of 3.2% yoy, but ongoing weaknesses in the real estate sector persisted, with property investment falling -9.8% yoy. Additionally, private investment remained flat, signaling that confidence among smaller businesses and private enterprises was subdued.

    China’s National Bureau of Statistics noted that existing and new policies aimed at stimulating growth have begun to take effect, leading to steady expansion in the industrial and services sectors, improved investment, and stable employment conditions. Officials highlighted “new quality productive forces” as key drivers of momentum.

    To further bolster domestic demand, China’s State Council unveiled a “special action plan” over the weekend, aiming to increase household incomes, introduce childcare subsidies, and reduce financial burdens to encourage consumption.

    While the plan was widely circulated across local governments, it lacked concrete details on financial support for implementation, leaving uncertainties about its immediate impact.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2910; (P) 1.2934; (R1) 1.2958; More…

    GBP/USD bounces slightly today and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is in favor with 1.2860 support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2923 will pave the way back to 1.3433 high. However, break of 1.2860 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:30 NZD Business NZ PSI Feb 49.1 50.4
    00:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index M/M Mar 1.10% 0.50%
    02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb 5.90% 5.30% 6.20%
    02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Feb 4.00% 3.80% 3.70%
    02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Feb 4.10% 3.20% 3.20%
    12:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 229K 249K 240K 239K
    12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar -20 -1.9 5.7
    12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.20% 0.70% -0.90% -1.20%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Feb 0.30% 0.50% -0.40% -0.60%
    14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 43 42

     



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  • Currency Markets Consolidate as Trader Start Repositioning for Tariff Battles in April

    Currency Markets Consolidate as Trader Start Repositioning for Tariff Battles in April


    The past week in the currency markets was marked more by consolidation than decisive moves, even as risk aversion deepened in US stock markets. Dollar’s selloff slowed and turned into a modest recovery, but there was no clear momentum for bullish trend reversal. Sentiment remained fragile, weighed down by constantly escalating trade tensions and the growing impact of tariffs on American consumer and business confidence. However, with stocks and Dollar both looking oversold, markets appear to have found a temporary reprieve, allowing for some short-term stabilization.

    That said, this pause does not indicate a shift in sentiment, but rather reflects a phase of profit-taking and repositioning. Traders seem to be adjusting their positions ahead of the critical tariff showdown in April, when reciprocal trade measures on key US trading partners are expected to take effect. As markets brace for the next wave of developments, uncertainty and indecisiveness have become dominant themes. This is evident in the fact that only three currency crosses closed outside their prior week’s ranges, highlighting a lack of conviction in directional moves.

    Among the currency performers, New Zealand Dollar overtook Euro at last hours as the week’s strongest, but its gains lacked clear momentum for a sustained uptrend. Australian Dollar, which came in third, and Kiwi appeared to be mostly digesting their recent losses, aided by a modest stabilization in risk sentiment.

    While these currencies showed some resilience, they have yet to break out of their broader downtrends, and further gains will likely depend on how global markets react to the next round of trade developments.

    Euro, despite slipping to second place, could soon regain momentum, especially as Germany’s major political parties reached a breakthrough on a historic debt deal.

    On the weaker side, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, and Dollar ranked as the bottom three performers. Meanwhile, Sterling and Canadian Dollar closed the week in the middle of the pack

    Stocks Sink for the Week Despite Friday’s Rebound, April Set to Be Crucial

    US stocks suffered significant losses last week, with DOW plummeting -3.1% for its worst weekly performance since March 2023. Both S&P 500 and NASDAQ also slipped more than -2% and notched their fourth consecutive week in the red. While a strong rebound on Friday briefly lifted spirits—becoming the best single day of 2025 for S&P 500 and NASDAQ—these gains were insufficient to salvage the broader downtrend that has gripped the market.

    Friday’s bounce appeared to be more of a technical rebound than a shift in fundamentals. With the major indices down 10% from their all-time highs, markets had reached oversold conditions, making them ripe for short traders to take profits. However, the broader narrative remains bearish, at least for the near term. .

    Tariff uncertainties will continue to cap upside momentum in stocks, at least through April. The critical turning point would come on April 2, when reciprocal tariffs from US are set to be announced. The corresponding retaliatory measures from the European Union, Canada, China, and Japan—and the potential for further US escalation in response—will dictate how deep the economic impact may run. The developments in the second quarter will ultimately determine whether the US markets are in merely a medium-term correction or entering an outright bear market.

    For S&P 500, fall from 6147.43 is currently seen as a correction to the up trend from 3491.58 (2022 low) only. While further decline remains in favor, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 6147.43 at 5132.89.

    However, firm break of 5132.89 will raise the chance of long term reversal, and target trend line support (now at around 4740).

    Similarly, DOW should now be in correction to the whole rally from 28660.94 (2022 low). While further fall is expected, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 28660.04 to 45703.63 at 38803.98. However, sustained break of this fibonacci level will argue that larger scale reversal is underway.

    Dollar Index May Stabilize Around 61.8% Retracement Level, But Downside Risks Remain

    The sharp decline in Dollar Index slowed last week, as market expectations for Fed’s next rate cut have shifted back from May to June. Despite softer-than-expected consumer inflation data, traders are acknowledging that Fed will likely need more time to assess the economic impact of escalating tariffs before making a policy move.

    June FOMC meeting offers the central bank a broader window to evaluate the full effects of reciprocal trade measures and any additional retaliatory tariffs. Additionally, Fed will have a fresh set of economic projections by then, providing a more comprehensive view of inflation, growth, and labor market trends.

    Technically, Dollar Index is now hovering around 61.8% retracement of 99.57 to 110.17 at 103.61. This level could provide some short-term stabilization, particularly as D RSI also suggests oversold conditions. Some consolidations might follow first, or even a notable recovery.

    However, risks will continue to stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 106.37) holds. Sustained break of 103.61 will extend the fall from 110.17 to 99.57 low (2023 low).

    Eurozone Confidence Surges, DAX and Euro Poised for Further Gains

    Euro and Germany’s DAX lost some momentum last week, but Friday’s bounce suggests both may be gearing up to extend their recent rallies.

    In a major political breakthrough, Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz announced on Friday that he had secured the backing of the Greens for a massive increase in state borrowing. With support from the Social Democrats already in place, Merz now has the two-thirds parliamentary majority required to pass constitutional amendments.

    The highly anticipated vote is scheduled for next week and, if approved, would mark a historic shift in Germany’s fiscal policy, paving the way for significant infrastructure and defense spending.

    Merz’s declaration that “Germany is back” highlighted the renewed optimism surrounding both the German and broader European economies.

    This growing confidence is also reflected in recent sentiment indicators. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index surged from -12.7 to -2.9 in March, reaching its highest level since June 2024. More notably, Expectations Index skyrocketed from 1.0 to 18.0, marking its third consecutive monthly increase and the highest level since July 2021. This surge represents the largest monthly improvement since 2012.

    Germany’s investor confidence has also rebounded sharply, signaling a significant turnaround in market expectations. The German Sentix Investor Confidence Index jumped from -29.7 to -12.5, its strongest level since April 2023. Meanwhile, the Expectations Index surged from -5.8 to 20.5, reaching its highest point since July 2021.

    For DAX, near term outlook stays bullish with 22226.34 support intact. Current trend should continue to 161.8% projection of 14630.21 to 18892.92 from 17024.82 at 23921.87. Decisive break there would pave the way to 200% projection 25550.22 next.

    Nevertheless, rejection by 23921.87 will indicate medium term topping, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. DAX should then turn into consolidations, until fresh catalyst pushes it through to new records.

    The key for Euro remains on whether EUR/CHF could decisively break through the long term channel resistance to solidify its bullish trend reversal. In this case, stronger rally should be seen to 0.9928 resistance at least.

    However, break of 0.9489 support will suggest rejection by the channel resistance, and keep outlook bearish for EUR/CHF, which might also be an indication of Euro’s outlook elsewhere.

    NZD/JPY as a Top Gainer, But Bearish Trend Remains Intact

    NZD/JPY was among the top-performing currency pairs last week, rising by over 1.1%. However, the crosses continued to trade within falling channel that originated from 92.45 high. It’s also capped well below 55 D EMA (now at 86.45).

    Thus, while the current rebound signals some near-term buying interest, the broader technical picture remains bearish.

    On the upside, NZD/JPY could face strong resistance from 86.71 (38.2% retracement of 92.45 to 83.14 at 86.96). Only a firm break of this cluster resistance zone would confirm bullish trend reversal.

    Otherwise, fall from 92.45 is still in favor to continue. Indeed, firm break of 83.02 (2024 low) will resume whole down trend from 99.01 (2024 high).

     

    USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

    USD/JPY edged lower to 146.52 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Upside of recovery should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will pave the way to 139.57 support.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.88).



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  • Greenback Strengthens as Euro Pulls Back and US-EU Trade Tensions Escalate

    Greenback Strengthens as Euro Pulls Back and US-EU Trade Tensions Escalate


    Dollar is staging a notable rebound as markets transition into US session, though the exact catalyst behind the move is unclear. Part of Dollar’s strength could be attributed to a broad pullback in Euro, as traders begin to take profits after this month’s strong gain. Euro’s retreat is providing the greenback with some temporary relief. However, broader geopolitical and trade tensions may also be influencing the market’s cautious sentiment.

    Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe continue to escalate following fresh threats from US President Donald Trump. In response to the EU’s plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on American whiskey, Trump warned of a potential 200% tariff on European wine, champagne, and spirits. This marks an escalation in the ongoing trade dispute that began with Washington’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

    At the same time, geopolitical uncertainties are deepening as U.S. officials arrive in Moscow for ceasefire discussions over the Ukraine conflict. Russia appears to be taking a hardline stance, with Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov dismissing the proposed truce as nothing more than a temporary reprieve for Ukraine’s military. Ushakov emphasized that Russia’s ultimate objective remains a long-term peace settlement that prioritizes its own national interests. This rigid position suggests that negotiations may not yield immediate breakthroughs.

    Against this backdrop, Dollar is emerging as the strongest performer of the day, followed by Yen and Loonie. On the other hand, Kiwi is currently the weakest performer, followed by Aussie and Euro. Sterling and the Swiss Franc are positioned in the middle.

    Technically, though, it’s way too early to conclude that Dollar is reversing its near term down trend. For example, USD/CHF’s recovery from 0.8757 is seen as a corrective pattern that should be limited below 0.8911 support turned resistance. Fall from 0.9200 is still expected to resume at a later stage.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.07%. DAX is down -0.49%. CAC is down -0.33%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.018 at 4.698. Germany 10-year yield is flat at 2.882. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell 0.08%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.58%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.39%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.12%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.023 to 1.547.

    US PPI at 0.0% mom, 3.2% yoy in Feb, below expectations

    US PPI for final demand as unchanged in February, coming in below expectations of 0.3% mom rise. The 0.3% mom increase in goods prices was offset by -0.2% mom decline in services.

    On an annual basis, PPI slowed to 3.2% yoy, down from January’s 3.7% yoy and missing the expected 3.3% yoy reading.

    PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services, rose 0.2% mom. Over the past 12 months, this measure advanced 3.3% yoy, maintaining a relatively steady pace.

    US intial jobless claims tick down to 220k, vs exp 224k

    US initial jobless claims fell -2k to 220k in the week ending March 8, slightly below expectation of 224k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1.5k to 226k.

    Continuing claims fell -27k to 1870k in the week ending March 1. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6k to 1872k.

    ECB’s Nagel: Tariffs could push Germany into recession again, but Fiscal shift provides stability

    German ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel warned that Germany could face a third consecutive year of economic contraction if US tariffs take full effect. Speaking to BBC, Nagel noted that without the tariffs, Germany’s economy was already expected to stagnate with minimal growth of around 0.2%. With escalating trade tensions, the risk of another recession looms large.

    Nagel sharply criticized US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, calling them “economics from the past” and “definitely not a good idea.” He defended the EU’s decision to impose retaliatory tariffs, adding that such a response was a “necessity” rather than a choice.

    Addressing Germany’s recent shift in fiscal policy, Nagel described the decision to increase borrowing for defense and infrastructure spending as an “extraordinary measure for an extraordinary time.”

    He pointed out that the global economy is undergoing “tectonic changes,” which justify a more flexible approach to fiscal management. While Germany has traditionally maintained strict budget discipline, this shift would provide “some financial breathing room” to support recovery in the coming years, and send a “stability signal” to markets.

    Eurozone industrial production rises 0.8% mom, led by intermediate and capital goods

    Eurozone industrial production posted a solid 0.8% mom increase in January, aligning with market expectations. The gains were driven primarily by a 1.6% rise in intermediate goods output and a 0.5% increase in capital goods production. However, declines were seen in other categories, with energy production falling by -1.2%, durable consumer goods slipping -0.2%, and non-durable consumer goods dropping -3.1%.

    Across the broader European Union, industrial production rose by a more modest 0.3% mom. Among individual member states, Lithuania (+4.6%), Portugal (+3.7%), and Austria (+3.3%) recorded the strongest gains, while Malta (-12.9%), Denmark (-10.6%), and Slovakia (-7.3%) saw the sharpest declines.

    BoJ’s Ueda expects real wages to rise, boosting consumption

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled optimism about Japan’s economic outlook, telling the parliament today that “import-cost-driven inflation” is expected to moderate while wages continue to “rise steadily.” This shift could lead to an improvement in real wages and consumption, a critical factor for sustaining domestic demand.

    Ueda’s comments align with recent developments in Japan’s annual “shunto” wage negotiations, which have resulted in record pay hikes across major companies.

    Hitachi announced a record 6.2% rise in monthly wages, fully meeting union demands. Toyota’s key auto parts supplier, Denso, also committed to historic pay hikes, while Toyota itself stated that the overall wage increase for its manufacturing staff would match last year’s levels—the highest seen since 1999.

    Further clarity on the scale of wage hikes will come on March 14, when Rengo, Japan’s largest labor union federation representing 7 million workers, releases its preliminary report. Rengo had been seeking an average wage increase of 6.09%, up from last year’s 5.85%.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0867; (P) 1.0897; (R1) 1.0919; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD stays neutral first. Deeper retreat might be seen towards 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0762). But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0946 at 1.0721 to contain downside. On the upside, break of 1.0946 will resume the rally from 1.0176 to retest 1.1274 key resistance next.

    In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    00:00 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectations Mar 3.60% 4.60%
    00:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Feb 11% 20% 22%
    07:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices M/M Feb 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
    07:30 CHF Producer and Import Prices Y/Y Feb -0.10% -0.30%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Jan 0.80% 0.80% -1.10% -0.40%
    12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jan -3.20% -4.80% 11.00% 11.60%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 7) 220K 224K 221K 222K
    12:30 USD PPI M/M Feb 0.00% 0.30% 0.40% 0.60%
    12:30 USD PPI Y/Y Feb 3.20% 3.30% 3.50% 3.70%
    12:30 USD PPI Core M/M Feb -0.10% 0.30% 0.30% 0.50%
    12:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Feb 3.40% 3.60% 3.60% 3.80%
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -46B -80B

     



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