The Euro (EUR) generally dislikes geopolitical shocks leading to higher energy prices, and has therefore detached from JPY and CHF in early price action after the Israeli strike on Iran.
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Tag: EURUSD
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EUR: Not liking the oil rally – ING
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EUR/USD extends gains on dovish US CPI, flirts with 1.15
- EUR/USD advances as lower US inflation sparks calls for aggressive Fed rate cuts.
- Trump urges full percentage point cut in Fed funds rate post-CPI.
- ECB policymakers cautious, but inflation outlook hints at further fine-tuning.
The EUR/USD surged during the North American session but remains shy of clearing the 1.1500 figure, following the release of a softer-than-expected inflation report in the United States (US), which could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce borrowing costs in the near term. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1482, up by over 0.50%.
US data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in May fell short of estimates as prices continued to trend lower. Following the data release, US President Donald Trump posted on his social network that the Fed should lower the fed funds rate by one whole percentage point.
Although inflation edged lower, some analysts project that households in the upcoming month will feel the impact of tariffs. Meanwhile, positive trade news regarding negotiations between the US and China emerged, as the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) revealed that China is putting a six-month limit on rare-earth export licenses for US automakers and manufacturers.
Meanwhile, in the Eurozone (EU), European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers made headlines, although they failed to move the EUR/USD pair. The ECB’s Vujcic said that he is looking for more clarity on trade, while Kazaks noted that it is “quite likely that 2% inflation will require some further cuts for fine-tuning,” said via Econostream on X.
The ECB Chief Economist, Philip Lane, added that last week’s rate cut helped clarify the bank’s policy stance to bring inflation toward its target.
Ahead in the week, the EUR/USD is expected to be greatly influenced by the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, along with the Initial Jobless Claims report. Across the pond, the EU’s schedule is scarce on economic data, but ECB officials led by Vice-President Luis de Guindos will cross the wires.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.85% -0.19% -0.32% -0.19% -0.12% -0.23% -0.28% EUR 0.85% 0.65% 0.51% 0.65% 0.76% 0.62% 0.56% GBP 0.19% -0.65% -0.04% 0.00% 0.12% -0.03% -0.08% JPY 0.32% -0.51% 0.04% 0.12% 0.15% 0.03% -0.08% CAD 0.19% -0.65% -0.01% -0.12% 0.06% -0.04% -0.09% AUD 0.12% -0.76% -0.12% -0.15% -0.06% -0.14% -0.19% NZD 0.23% -0.62% 0.03% -0.03% 0.04% 0.14% -0.05% CHF 0.28% -0.56% 0.08% 0.08% 0.09% 0.19% 0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD soars past 1.1480 as traders shift toward US PPI data
- EUR/USD appears poised to test the 1.1500 mark in the near term as positive news about US-China talks could increase appetite for riskier assets and weigh on the US Dollar.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that trade fairness with China could be achieved through reduced exports to the US or by rebalancing the world’s largest economies. He added that the Trump administration is committed to maintaining the US Dollar’s reserve currency status.
- US inflation came in softer than expected in May. Headline CPI rose 2.4% YoY, slightly above April’s 2.3% but below the 2.5% forecast. Core CPI held steady at 2.8% YoY, suggesting underlying inflation remains stable but persistent.
- The PPI for May is projected to increase from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY. Underlying PPI figures are expected to remain at 3.1% higher, unchanged compared to April’s print.
- Financial market players do not expect that the ECB would reduce its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) at the July monetary policy meeting.
Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD bulls eyes 1.15 and the YTD high
From a technical perspective, the uptrend is expected to continue as buyers target a clear break above the 1.1500 figure. This will expose the year-to-date (YTD) high of 1.1572, ahead of 1.1600. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, indicating an upward direction, which suggests that buyers are gaining momentum.
The less likely scenario on the downside is that the EUR/USD needs to clear the 1.1450 area. This would set the pair for a pullback toward the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1346 before testing 1.1300.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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Traders focus to US-China talks, UK jobs report
The US Dollar dropped as US-Sino trade talks began in London on Monday, amid an improvement in risk appetite and the first reports that talks are going well, according to US President Donald Trump. US equities are trading mixed, US Treasury bond yields down, as traders brace for the release of UK jobs data, ECB Survey of Monetary Analysis, and ECB speakers.
Here’s what to watch on Tuesday, June 10:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated after posting solid gains last Friday, but it has fallen below the 99.00 level, poised to end the day down 0.28%. Last week’s Nonfarm Payrolls figures were solid despite the ongoing slowdown. Still, the data, along with the latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now, suggests a rebound in Q2 2025 is expected, following the contraction in the first quarter. Data-wise, Tuesday’s schedule will feature the US NFIB Optimism Index amid the Fed speaker’s absence due to the blackout period ahead of the June 17-18 meeting.
EUR/USD rose past 1.1420 on the ECB’s speakers turning hawkish, particularly Peter Kazimir, who commented that the central bank is near, if not already at, the end of its easing cycle. This, and ECB’s Schnabel adding that the central bank might not decouple from the Fed, provided a tailwind for the shared currency. The docket will feature the ECB Survey of Monetary Analysis, ECB Speakers, and the Sentix Index.
GBP/USD continues to climb, regaining 1.3500 as overall US Dollar weakness persists amid a sparse economic calendar. Market players are focused on the release of April’s Employment Change, the ILO Unemployment Rate, on Tuesday. On Wednesday, traders will eye the release of Britain’s government spending plans.
The USD/JPY prints modest losses after the Japanese Yen appreciated as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures showed an improvement, despite remaining in contractionary territory, at -0.2% YoY, from the -0.7% plunge from the previous print. However, Japanese PM Ishimba saying that the economy is facing a phase of higher prices suggests that the Bank of Japan tightening cycle could continue to underpin the Yen.
Both antipodean currencies, the AUD/USD and the NZD/USD, advanced to fresh two-day highs. The Aussie Dollar rose by 0.41% to 0.6515, with market players eyeing the release of Consumer Sentiment data and Business Confidence. The kiwi gained 0.61% at 0.6046 due to US Dollar weakness, across the board along with an improvement on Manufacturing Sales.
Gold prices rose as bulls bought the dip below $3,300, while US Treasury bond yields and the US dollar fell. Nevertheless, a positive outcome of the US-China talks could send XAU/USD into a tailspin as flows move toward riskier assets.
US Dollar PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.21% -0.18% -0.17% 0.02% -0.31% -0.52% -0.02% EUR 0.21% 0.02% 0.03% 0.22% -0.08% -0.32% 0.18% GBP 0.18% -0.02% 0.08% 0.20% -0.09% -0.34% 0.16% JPY 0.17% -0.03% -0.08% 0.20% -0.19% -0.39% 0.03% CAD -0.02% -0.22% -0.20% -0.20% -0.35% -0.54% -0.04% AUD 0.31% 0.08% 0.09% 0.19% 0.35% -0.24% 0.26% NZD 0.52% 0.32% 0.34% 0.39% 0.54% 0.24% 0.50% CHF 0.02% -0.18% -0.16% -0.03% 0.04% -0.26% -0.50% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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EUR/USD edges lower to mid-1.1300s; looks to US PCE Price Index for fresh impetus
- EUR/USD ticks lower on Thursday and stalls the previous day’s bounce from over a one-week low.
- A turnaround in the global risk sentiment lends some support to the USD and weighs on the pair.
- Traders now look to the US PCE Price Index for some impetus ahead of the ECB next Thursday.
The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s solid bounce from the 1.1200 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half week low, and trades with a mild negative bias during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently hover around the mid-1.1300s, down nearly 0.15% for the day, though the downside remains cushioned.
Following the previous day’s dramatic turnaround, the US Dollar (USD) attracts some dip-buyers amid the flight to safety and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair. A federal appeals court paused a separate trade court ruling and reinstated US President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs late Thursday. This adds a layer of uncertainty in the markets and revives demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
The USD uptick, however, lacks bullish conviction amid concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition and expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs again in 2025. The shared currency, on the other hand, continues to draw some support from US President Donald Trump’s decision to delay the imposition of tariffs on the European Union (EU), which contributes to limiting the downside for the EUR/USD pair.
Moving ahead, the spotlight turns to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the Fed’s rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the EUR/USD pair heading into the weekend. The market focus will then shift to the crucial European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting next Thursday.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. -
Inflation dynamics may cause considerable challenges
European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and head of the Dutch central bank De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Klass Knot noted on Wednesday that the current outlook on European inflation is murky, making it difficult for the ECB to engage in direct moves.
Key highlights
Medium-term inflation outlook is more ambiguous.
Near-term growth and inflation risks are to the downside.
Monetary-policy stance should be neutral.
Inflation dynamics may cause considerable challenges.
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EUR/USD falls toward 1.1300 as bond market optimism outweighs impact of US-EU tariff delay
- EUR/USD depreciates as the US Dollar strengthens, as US yields weaken due to Japan’s potential cuts in government debt issuance.
- The Greenback gains ground ahead of the May 7 FOMC Meeting Minutes release on Wednesday.
- Trump expressed his satisfaction as the EU is speeding up the process to reach a trade deal with the United States.
EUR/USD continues its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.1310 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) draws support and as US yields depreciate following Japan’s indication of potential cuts in government debt issuance, which has boosted global bond markets. At the time of writing, the 10- and 30-year yields on US Treasury bonds are standing at 4.46% and 4.97%, respectively.
Additionally, the Greenback received support as the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose to 98.0 in May from the previous 86.0 reading. Meanwhile, US Durable Goods Orders fell by 6.3% in April against a 7.6% increase prior. This figure came in better than the estimated decrease of 7.9%. Traders likely await the FOMC Minutes, which are due later on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams emphasized the importance of inflation expectations should be well anchored. Williams wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent because that could become permanent by responding relatively strongly when inflation begins to deviate from the target. On Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that policymakers should avoid any adjustment in interest rates until reaching clear estimations of the impact on inflation due to higher tariffs.
However, the risk-sensitive Euro (EUR) gained support as trade tension eased between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU). On Sunday, US President Donald Trump extended the tariff deadline on imports from the EU from June 1 to July 9. On Monday, the Brussels agreed to speed up trade talks with the United States to avoid a transatlantic trade war.
On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump expressed his satisfaction in a post on Truth Social, noting that the EU is accelerating the process towards reaching a trade deal with the United States. Trump wrote, “I was extremely satisfied with the 50% Tariff allotment on the European Union, especially since they were ‘slow walking”. I have just been informed that the EU has called to quickly establish meeting dates. This is a positive event, and I hope that they will.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. -
EUR/USD snaps back above 1.1300 as Trump’s tariff salvo roils markets
- EUR/USD dips to 1.1296 after Trump announces steep tariffs on EU imports starting June 1.
- The pair rebounds to 1.1350 as US Dollar stays pressured by rising fiscal deficit concerns.
- Euro shrugs off ECB rate cut talk, supported by improving German GDP figures.
EUR/USD recovered during the mid-North American session on Friday after diving below 1.1300 after US President Donald Trump rattled the markets by threatening to impose 50% tariffs on the European Union (EU). At the time of writing, the pair recovered and climbed to around 1.1350
US President Donald Trump posted on his social network early Friday that discussions with the European Union “are going nowhere! Therefore, I am recommending a straight 50% tariff on the European Union, starting on June 1, 2025,” he wrote. The EUR/USD fell to 1.1296 on the remarks before the uptrend resumed.
Following those remarks, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that “EU proposals have not been of good quality,” adding that “Most countries are negotiating in good faith, except the EU.”
The Greenback remains on the back foot, weighed down by the approval of Trump’s tax bill in the House of Representatives, which is on its way to the Senate. If passed, the proposal would add close to $4 trillion to the US debt ceiling over a decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).
It is worth noting that the US Dollar remains unreactive to Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers, who so far have said the US Treasury market is working orderly, adding that uncertainty about supply chains, inventory and inflation keeps business executives unaware of the future.
The US economic docket featured US housing data in May, which was mixed as Building Permits fell, but New Home Sales improved in April.
In the Eurozone, Germany’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved yearly, though it remained in contractionary territory.
In the meantime, the Euro shrugged off speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates at the upcoming meeting. ECB’s Rehn and Stournaras favor a rate cut in June, with the latter supporting a pause after that meeting.
EUR/USD daily market movers: the Euro favored by “sell America” trend
- The Euro remains favored by overall US Dollar weakness. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of six currencies against the American Dollar, tumbled 0.79% at 99.10, its lowest level since April 29.
- The “sell America” trend continues with investors selling off bonds, US equities and the US Dollar. It was ignited by US President Donald Trump’s “trade war” and Moody’s downgrade of US government debt from AAA to AA1.
- The US schedule featured Building Permits, which fell by 4% MoM in April, declining from 1.481 million to 1.422 million, signaling a slowdown in future construction activity.
- New Home Sales surged 10.9% MoM, rising from 0.67 million to 0.743 million, according to the US Census Bureau. This reflects strong demand in the housing market despite tighter supply conditions.
- Germany’s economy grew in Q1 2025, exceeding estimates due to exports and industry frontloading ahead of US tariffs. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) improved from 0.2% to 0.4% QoQ.
EUR/USD technical outlook: Set to challenge 1.1400 in the near term
The EUR/USD uptrend resumed on Friday, with the pair reaching a two-week high of 1.1375 as traders brace for challenging 1.1400. Buyers are gathering steam as the pair registered the highest high and low during the last five days, and further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which trends up ahead of turning overbought.
If EUR/USD clears 1.1400, it would pave the way for testing key resistance levels, like 1.1450, followed by the 1.1500 mark and the year-to-date (YTD) high at 1.1573.
Conversely, if EUR/USD falls below 1.1300, the pair could test the May 22 low of 1.1255, ahead of 1.1200.
ECB FAQs
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
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Forex Today: It’s PMI-day!!!
The US Dollar (USD) maintained its weekly leg lower well in place, weakening to new two-week lows on the back of rising concerns over the US fiscal position in light of President Trump’s tax bill and worries over the performance of the US economy.
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EUR/USD climbs on Greenback weakness, but key technical barriers remain in place
- EUR/USD rose on Tuesday, but remains capped by 1.1300.
- Despite a near-term recovery, the Euro remains down from recent highs against the Greenback.
- US PMI figures will be the key data release this week.
EUR/USD caught a bounce for a second day in a row on Tuesday, bolstering the pair back toward the 1.1300 handle. Despite a near-term rise in bullish momentum bolstering the Fiber, EUR/USD remains well back from recent multi-year highs near 1.1575. The pair has found a firm technical floor from key moving averages, and overall market sentiment remains hopeful that traders will be able to keep finding reasons to hit the buy button.
Tariffs dominate market perception, but US data looms ahead
European policymakers are currently wrapped up in G7 meetings, minimizing the trickle of noteworthy headlines from key EU decision-makers. Overall market sentiment remains entirely hinged on trade headlines from the US, with investors hoping that deals will be struck with the Trump administration that will encourage President Donald Trump and his staffers to take the tariff gun away from their own economy’s head. Despite the overall upbeat tone in global markets, the steady drift into the unknown is beginning to limit bullish sentiment. The Trump administration is rapidly approaching its own self-imposed 90-day deadline on its own “reciprocal tariffs” package. While some potential trade deals have been announced, nothing concrete has been forthcoming.
It will be a limited data docket on Wednesday, with only mid-tier data on the offering on both sides of the Pacific. US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures are expected to come in mixed on Thursday. US Manufacturing PMI in May is expected to tick down to 50.1 from 50.2, while the Services component is seen holding flat at 50.8.
EUR/USD price forecast
Fiber rose four-tenths of one percent against the Greenback on Tuesday, pushing EUR/USD within touch range of the 1.1300 handle. The pair is still riding out a halting but determined bullish bounce from the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just below 1.1100, but bullish price momentum still has a long way to go to reclaim multi-year highs north of 1.1500 posted in April.
EUR/USD daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. -
EUR/USD plummets as US-China trade truce strengthens US Dollar
- EUR/USD slides below 1.1100 as the US Dollar rallies after the US and China agreed to lower tariffs by 115% for 90 days.
- The US-China temporary trade truce is expected to tame elevated consumer inflation expectations.
- ECB Schnabel sees no need to lower interest rates further.
EUR/USD is down over 1% near 1.1100 during North American trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair faces an intense selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rallies after the United States (US) and China, in a joint statement, announced a higher-than-expected reduction in tariffs for 90 days imposed in April.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surges to near 101.60.
In a scheduled briefing during the European trading session on Monday, the US and China have agreed to lower tariffs by 115%. Tariffs on the US and China have dropped to 10% and 30%, respectively. Import duties on China still carry the burden of a 20% fentanyl levy. However, Washington has assured that it could be resolved soon. “Two sides are having constructive conversations on the issue of fentanyl,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said. Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “If China acts, perhaps the fentanyl tariff could come down,” Reuters reported.
Ahead of the US-China trade talks in Geneva over the weekend, US President Donald Trump stated on Friday that he could lower tariffs on China to 80% through a post on Truth. Social. “80% Tariff on China seems right! It’s up to Scott Bessent,” Trump said.
The next trigger for the US Dollar will be commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on the monetary policy outlook in the wake of de-escalation in the Sino-US trade war. Fed officials are expected to revise their outlook on interest rates as the averted tariff war would diminish elevated consumer inflation expectations.
Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned in the press conference after the central bank’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged that tariffs announced were “significantly bigger than expected” and we will see “higher inflation, and lower employment” if large increases in tariffs as announced are “sustained”.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD plunges on absence of progress in US-EU trade talks
- EUR/USD plunges on Monday as the US Dollar surges after the US and China lowered tariffs. The Euro (EUR) trades lower against other currencies, while investors seek cues on how the temporary US-China trade truce will influence the Eurozone economic outlook.
- Ahead of the Sino-US trade talks, financial market participants anticipated that the trade war between the two largest world economic countries would be unfavorable for the shared continent, assuming that Beijing would move to other markets to sell its products to offset the impact of a trade war with Washington. Given China’s low-cost competitive advantage, its products could be disruptive for the global economy.
- After the US unveiled a 90-day tariff pause with China, a bilateral deal with the UK, and progress in trade talks with Japan, India, and other nations, no announcement regarding trade discussions with the European Union (EU) is also weighing on the Euro. Investors are seeing the scenario as unfavorable for the Eurozone economic outlook, assuming that the confidence of market participants will diminish in the economy if uncertainty prevails.
- Meanwhile, firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) could continue the monetary policy expansion cycle in the wake of easing inflationary pressures are also acting as a tailwind for the Euro. A string of ECB officials has signaled that more interest rate cuts are needed amid trade tensions with the US, while remaining confident that the disinflation trend is intact.
- Contrary to several officials supporting more interest rate cuts, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel has signaled that there is no need to reduce interest rates further. “The appropriate course of action is to keep rates close to where they are today – that is, firmly in neutral territory,” Schnabel said in a conference at Stanford University on Friday. Schnabel warned of risks to inflation exceeding the central bank’s 2% target in the medium term amid global economic turmoil.
- On the economic front, the EUR/USD pair will be influenced by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April, which will be released on Tuesday. The inflation data is expected to show that the headline CPI rose steadily by 2.4% YoY.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 1.15% 0.82% 1.15% 0.67% 0.35% 0.71% 0.95% EUR -1.15% -0.20% 0.54% 0.01% -0.16% 0.05% 0.28% GBP -0.82% 0.20% 0.94% 0.21% 0.05% 0.17% 0.48% JPY -1.15% -0.54% -0.94% -0.49% -1.41% -1.29% -0.43% CAD -0.67% -0.01% -0.21% 0.49% -0.05% 0.04% 0.27% AUD -0.35% 0.16% -0.05% 1.41% 0.05% 0.11% 0.41% NZD -0.71% -0.05% -0.17% 1.29% -0.04% -0.11% 0.21% CHF -0.95% -0.28% -0.48% 0.43% -0.27% -0.41% -0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD slides below 200-period EMA
EUR/USD declines on Monday after a breakdown of the 1.1200-1.1440 range formed in the last 20 trading days. The major currency pair extends its downside move below the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.1200, indicating a bearish trend.
The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) slides below 40.00, suggesting that a fresh bearish momentum has been triggered.
Looking up, the April 28 high of 1.1425 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the March 27 low of 1.0733 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.
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Euro holds firm near 1.1300 as bullish trend persists
- EUR/USD trades near the 1.1300 zone after climbing modestly post-European session.
- Bullish structure remains supported despite mixed momentum signals.
- Upward-sloping trend indicators reinforce strength, with support levels holding below.
The EUR/USD pair edged higher on Monday, trading around the 1.1300 zone following the European session. Price action stayed confined within the mid-range of the day’s movement, reflecting a steady grind higher rather than an impulsive breakout. While some momentum indicators suggest consolidation, the broader trend remains clearly bullish, backed by firm alignment across key moving averages.
Technically, EUR/USD continues to flash a bullish overall signal. The Relative Strength Index is neutral near 58, showing moderate momentum without overbought conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence flashes a sell signal, which tempers immediate bullish expectations, while the Ultimate Oscillator and Awesome Oscillator also remain in neutral territory. These readings highlight a possible pause in short-term momentum, though they don’t reverse the broader trend.
The core bullish bias is driven by moving averages. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages lie below the current price and point upward, providing a firm technical base. Supporting this outlook further are the 30-day Exponential and Simple Moving Averages, which continue to rise and align with the short-to-medium term uptrend.
Support levels are found at 1.1314, 1.1287, and 1.1279. Resistance lies at 1.1331 and 1.1353. A sustained move above resistance could expose further bullish extension, while a drop below the nearest support would likely lead to a brief retest of recent lows.
Daily Chart
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EUR/USD edges lower to near 1.1300, traders await US ISM Services PMI
- EUR/USD edged lower on Monday as potential trade tensions weighed down market sentiment.
- President Donald Trump announced plans to initiate a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films, raising concerns over escalating protectionist policies.
- Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices remained steady at 2.2% YoY in April, slightly above the expected 2.1%.
EUR/USD is kicking off the week on a weaker note, trading near 1.1320 during the Asian session on Monday. US President Donald Trump confirmed he would not seek to remove Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell before his term ends in May 2026. While Trump criticized Powell, calling him “a total stiff,” he reiterated that interest rates should eventually be lowered.
Additionally, the EUR/USD pair faces headwinds possibly from potential trade tensions. Trump announced plans to direct the US Trade Representative and Commerce Department to begin the process of imposing a 100% tariff on foreign-produced movies.
On the data front, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed a stronger-than-expected rise of 177,000 jobs in April, following a revised 185,000 increase in March. This beat the market forecast of 130,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings held at 3.8% year-on-year. Later on the day, traders will watch for the US ISM Services PMI for further direction.
The Euro found some support on Friday after stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation figures. Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices held steady at 2.2% year-over-year in April, slightly above the forecasted 2.1%. Services inflation accelerated to 3.9%, and core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 2.7%, both above expectations. These readings reinforced market expectations for a cumulative 60 basis points (bps) in European Central Bank (ECB) rate cuts by year-end.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. -
EUR/USD recovers as US Dollar struggles to extend recovery
- EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.1330 as the USD Index struggles to break above the key level of 100.00.
- The US Dollar faces pressure due to a weak US economic outlook in the face of Trump’s tariff policy.
- ECB officials have warned that risks to inflation are skewed to the downside.
EUR/USD flattens around 1.1330 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair recovers its initial losses after sliding to near 1.1285 as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major peers, gives back some early gains after failing to extend its two-day recovery above the psychological level of 100.00.
The outlook of the US Dollar (USD) looks grim given the unexpected contraction in the United States (US) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), softer job growth, and US-China trade uncertainty.
Data released Wednesday showed that the US economy declined by 0.3% on an annualized basis as firms frontloaded imports from their foreign suppliers to avoid higher tariffs, which were announced by US President Donald Trump on the so-called “Liberation Day”. This is the first time in three years that the US has faced an economic contraction in a quarter.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the current GDP data “doesn’t fully reflect the real impact of new economic policies” by US President Trump, and warn of a “slower labor growth, a surge in inflation and a sharp slowdown in retail spending”.
The US ADP reported on Wednesday that the private sector added 62K fresh workers in April, significantly lower than estimates of 108K and the prior release of 147K.
Meanwhile, comments from White House officials have indicated that the US-China trade war will not be resolved in the near term. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday that trade discussions with Beijing have not been initiated yet since the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. Greer clarified that no official discussions with Beijing are “underway”.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD rebounds as Euro outperforms
- The recovery move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by Euro’s (EUR) outperformance against its peers despite firming expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in the June policy meeting. Traders have become increasingly confident that the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% as many officials have warned about downside risks to Eurozone inflation.
- ECB officials have expressed concerns that Eurozone inflation could undershoot the central bank’s target of 2%. Policymakers believe that growth will be hit badly by the fallout of tariffs by US President Trump and that its impact will be “net disinflationary” for the continent.
- For fresh cues on inflation, investors await the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be released on Friday. According to the estimates, the headline HICP rose at a moderate pace of 2.1% on year, slightly lower than the 2.2% increase seen in March. In the same period, the core HICP, which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 2.5% compared to the prior reading of 2.4%.
- Ahead of the Eurozone HICP, the inflation data from its major member states have indicated that price pressures cooled down in Germany and France but remained stable in Spain and Italy.
- Meanwhile, flash Eurozone Q1 GDP came in stronger-than-expected on both a quarterly and annual basis. Eurostat reported that the economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, higher than what economists had expected and the previous reading of 0.2%. However, the Q1 GDP data doesn’t yet reflect the impact of tariffs by US President Trump on automobiles.
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.07% 0.07% 1.14% 0.13% 0.17% 0.20% 0.30% EUR -0.07% 0.00% 1.06% 0.02% 0.08% 0.13% 0.21% GBP -0.07% 0.00% 1.04% 0.05% 0.08% 0.13% 0.21% JPY -1.14% -1.06% -1.04% -1.02% -0.95% -0.97% -0.90% CAD -0.13% -0.02% -0.05% 1.02% 0.05% 0.07% 0.16% AUD -0.17% -0.08% -0.08% 0.95% -0.05% 0.04% 0.12% NZD -0.20% -0.13% -0.13% 0.97% -0.07% -0.04% 0.09% CHF -0.30% -0.21% -0.21% 0.90% -0.16% -0.12% -0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds 1.1300
EUR/USD strives to hold the key level of 1.1300 in Thursday’s European session. The pair bounces back after a mean-reversion to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.1250.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is concluded for now. However, the upside bias still prevails.
Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the 25 September high of 1.1214 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.
US-China Trade War FAQs
Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.
An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.
The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.
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Germany Brandenburg CPI (YoY) rose from previous 2.3% to 2.4% in April
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EUR/USD drifts lower to near 1.1400 on tariff uncertainty
- EUR/USD softens to around 1.1415 in Tuesday’s early Asian session.
- Bessent said it’s up to China to de-escalate the trade war.
- Traders raise their bets on the ECB rate reductions.
The EUR/USD pair edges lower to near 1.1415 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) amid rising bets for further rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) in June. Investors brace for further developments in US trade policy ahead of the release of highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data on Friday.
US President Donald Trump said that there has been progress and he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping, although Beijing has denied that trade negotiations are taking place. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that he had interactions with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs.
Bessent said on Monday that the US government is in contact with China but that it’s up to Beijing to take the first step in de-escalating the tariff fight with the US due to the imbalance of trade between the two nations. Investors will closely watch the US-China relationship. Trump’s chaotic trade policy has dented faith in American assets, and the shared currency has emerged as an alternative destination for investors’ cash. Any signs of escalation in the US-China trade war could weigh on the Greenback and act as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.
Across the pond, Reuters reported on Saturday that ECB policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues to ease. ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said on Monday that the central bank may cut interest rates below the neutral level that keeps the economy in balance.
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance. -
Euro steadies near 1.1400 after soft pullback
- EURUSD trades near the 1.1400 area, slipping slightly after the European session.
- The bullish bias persists despite mixed short-term momentum signals.
- Resistance seen around 1.1378; support zones near 1.1335 and 1.1215.
The EURUSD pair was seen hovering near the 1.1400 region on Friday after easing slightly in the aftermath of the European session. The pair is consolidating within a narrow range between 1.1315 and 1.1391, reflecting a pause in bullish momentum while still holding ground near recent highs.
Technically, the broader picture remains constructive. The 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day simple moving averages all point higher, supporting the ongoing bullish trend. Shorter-term indicators like the 10-day EMA and 30-day EMA also reinforce this outlook, suggesting that pullbacks may find support.
Momentum readings, however, are mixed. The Relative Strength Index is neutral, while the MACD continues to issue a buy signal. At the same time, the 10-period Momentum indicator flashes a mild sell, and Bull Bear Power remains flat, highlighting near-term indecision.
Key support levels are located at 1.1369, 1.1335, and 1.1215. On the upside, resistance is expected at 1.1378, with further gains likely requiring stronger bullish conviction.
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US data, Germany’s morale gauges, and tariffs take centre stage
The Greenback extended their recovery on the back of auspicious headlines around the US-China trade crisis and mitigating fears around potential threats to the Fed’s independence by President Trump.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 24:
The US Dollar Index (DXY) advanced further and retargeted the psychological 100.00 barrier, up for the second straight day. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due, seconded by the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales.
EUR/USD came under extra selling pressure, challenging the 1.1300 key support, or multi-day troughs. Germany’s IFO Business Climate will be only released on the domestic calendar.
GBP/USD broke below the 1.3300 support to reach new four-day lows amid the persistent advance in the Greenback. Next on tap across the Channel will be the CBI Business Optimism Index, seconded by Industrial Trend Orders.
USD/JPY gained extra steam and broke above the 143.00 hurdle, hitting fresh multi-day peaks. The weekly readings of Foreign Bond Investment are expected.
Prices of WTI dipped to four-day lows, breaching the $62.00 mark per barrel following the likelihood that the OPEC+ could hike the crude oil output next month.
The better tone in the risk-linked assets as well as the higher US Dollar and easing US-China trade concerns all weighed on the yellow metal, dragging Gold prices below the $3,300 mark per troy ounce. Silver prices, in the meantime, rallied to three-week highs around the $33.70 zone per ounce.