Tag: EURUSD

  • EUR/USD ready for the weekend while traders brace for German defense spending bill vote upcoming Tuesday

    EUR/USD ready for the weekend while traders brace for German defense spending bill vote upcoming Tuesday


    • EUR/USD briefly heads back to 1.0900 on a flurry of headlines on Friday. 
    • The World Trade Organization could examine if US President Trump’s tariff policy is illegal. 
    • Markets have a sign of relief on the odds of a spending bill being passed, avoiding the US government shutdown, later this Friday. 

    The EUR/USD pair edges higher and recovers to 1.0900 at the time of writing on Friday, erasing its sluggish performance from earlier this week. The resurgence in the pair comes after two headlines emerged late Thursday. United States (US) Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer announced that he plans to vote to keep the government open, backing the House-passed government funding measures and effectively ending the shutdown risk in the US. 

    Meanwhile, Canada initiated a dispute complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) and requested a look into US President Donald Trump’s tariff implementations, which might be illegal and contradict the WTO trade rules, Reuters reports. That would mean a huge setback for President Trump’s plans ahead of the reciprocal tariffs that will take effect in April. 

    Daily digest market movers: All on Germany

    • On Tuesday normally voting will take place in the German Bundestag on the defense spending package. If a two-thirds majority is reached on Tuesday, the spending plan would be a huge lift for the Euro. 
    • Gold, as a safe haven asset, has breached the $3,000 mark on Friday in a recession-feared-induced rally as traders are concerned about economic growth and the tariffs outlook, with reciprocal levies coming into effect in April. 
    • The University of Michigan has released its preliminary consumer expectations reading for March:
      • The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell below 60 to 57.9. A big miss against expectations at 63.1 and from 64.7 in February.
      • The US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation jumped to 3.9%, beating the 3.5% in the final February reading. 
    • Equities are attempting to brush off this week’s negative tone. All indices are up over 0.50% across Europe and the US on Friday. 
    • The CME Fedwatch Tool projects a 97.0% chance for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates unchanged in Wednesday’s upcoming decision. The chances of a rate cut at the May meeting stand at 32.8%, while they show a 78.5% probability of rates being lower than current levels in June.
    • The US 10-year yield trades around 4.329%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on March 4 and after hitting a five-day high on Thursday. 

    Technical Analysis: Defense spending key

    Friday’s close is vital for the EUR/USD pair. From the looks on the technical charts, the pair has good odds of closing above a crucial ascending trend line (green in the chart below), which offered support on Thursday and Friday. A close above that line would mean that the 1.1000 psychological level could get in the cards heading into next week. 

    On the upside, 1.1000 is the key level to look out for. Once that level is breached, the pair enters the famous 1.1000-1.1500 range, where often it tends to stay for quite some time. Certainly, the 1.1200 big figure, which coincides with the highs of September and October last year, looks interesting for a brief test and possible breach higher. 

    On the downside, the ascending trend line at 1.0840 should still provide support for now. In case it breaks, the road is open to head into the 1.0700 region. The 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 1.0722 should be key for traders who want to buy the dip.

    EUR/USD: Daily Chart

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     



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  • No surprises expected at the ECB meeting

    No surprises expected at the ECB meeting


    The downtrend in the US Dollar gathered extra steam on Wednesday, fuelled by concerns over the US economy and some renewed hopes that the Trump administration could delay some planned tariffs.

    Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 6:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) broke below the 105.00 support, reaching news four-month lows amid further concerns over the US economy. The January Balance of Trade results are due, seconded by Challenger Job Cuts, the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Unit Labor Costs. In addition, the Fed’s. Waller and Harker are due to speak.

    EUR/USD extended its solid performance to the vicinity of the 1.0800 barrier, or new four-month peaks. The ECB’s interest rate decision will take centre stage, along with Lagarde’s press conference. Data wise, the HCOB Construction PMI in Germany and the euro area will be released along with Retail Sales in the whole bloc.

    GBP/USD climbed to just pips away from the key barrier at 1.2900 the figure, or multi-month tops. The S&P Global Construction PMI will be the sole release across the Channel, followed by the speech by the BoE’s Mann.

    USD/JPY resumed its downtrend and revisited the low-148.00s following the sharp pullback in the Greenback. The weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be published.

    AUD/USD rose markedly, advancing for the third straight day and reclaiming the area beyond the 0.6300 hurdle. The Balance of Trade results are expected, seconded by flash prints of Building Permits and Private House Approvals.

    Prices of the barrel of WTI dropped to new lows near the $65.00 mark in response to an increased in US crude oil supplies, tariff concerns and the expected OPEC+ intention to increase the oil output in April.

    Gold prices hit their third straight day of gains, retesting the $2,920 zone following the sharp decline in the US Dollar. Silver prices rallied further north of the $32.00 mark per ounce, flirting with eight-day highs.



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  • US data and Fedspeak come to the fore

    US data and Fedspeak come to the fore


    The US Dollar kicked off the new trading week slightly on the defensive, managing to rebound from fresh multi-week lows amid tariff concerns, lower yields, and renewed jitters on the health of the US economy.

    Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, February 25:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to new two-month lows, trading at shouting distance from the key support at the 106.00 mark. The Consumer Confidence gauged by the Conference Bord will take centre stage seconded by the FHFA’s House Price Index, The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories. In addition, the Fed’s Logan, Barr and Barkin are due to speak.

    EUR/USD briefly surpassed the 1.0500 barrier on fresh optimism following the results of the German election on Sunday. The final Q4 GDP Growth Rate in Germany will be at the centre of the debate, along with the ECB’s Negotiated Wage Growth and the speech by the ECB’s Nagel.

    GBP/USD resumed its uptrend on Monday, rising to new highs in levels closer to the 1.2700 hurdle. The CBI Distributive Trades will be the only data release across the Channel, seconded by the speech by the BoE’s Pill.

    After three daily pullbacks in a row, USD/JPY finally regained the smile and charted decent gains to the proximity of the key 150.00 barrier. Next on tap on the Japanese calendar will be the final prints of the December Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index.

    AUD/USD treaded water around 0.6350 following an unsuccessful attempt to hit the 0.6400 level earlier in the day. The RBA’s Jones will speak on Tuesday, while the RBA’s Monthly CPI Indicator, and Construction Done figures, are expected on February 26.

    Once again, supply concerns lent some much-needed oxygen to crude oil prices, prompting the barrel of American WTI to clock acceptable gains above the $70.00 mark.

    Prices of Gold advanced to a record high closer to $2,960 per ounce troy on the back of intense uncertainty surrounding US tariffs. Silver prices added to Friday’s pullback, reaching multi-day lows near the £2.00 mark per ounce.

     



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  • EUR/USD gathers strength above 1.0450 as conservatives win German election

    EUR/USD gathers strength above 1.0450 as conservatives win German election


    • EUR/USD edges higher to 1.0480 in Monday’s early Asian session, up 0.18% on the day. 
    • Germany’s conservatives won the election, AfD leaped to second place, exit polls showed. 
    • US February PMI data came in weaker than expected, weighing on the US Dollar. 

    The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers to near 1.0480 during the early Asian session on Monday. The Euro edges higher as Germany’s conservatives won its election as expected. Traders brace for further results from the German election. 

    Exit polls showed Germany’s opposition conservatives Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its allied Christian Social Union (CSU) secured the largest share of votes in the German federal election on Sunday. This put leader Friedrich Merz on track to be the next chancellor, with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming in second. The attention now is how soon the conservative Christian Democrats could form a coalition government to offer much-needed reform to a struggling economy.

    According to ZDF exit polls, the conservative CDU/CSU bloc won 28.5% of the vote, followed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 20% and Scholz’s Social Democratic Party with 16.5%. 

    The weaker US economic data drags the Greenback lower. Data released by S&P Global on Friday showed that the US business activity dropped to a 17-month low in February. The latest flash estimate showed the US S&P Global Composite PMI declined to 50.4 in February from 52.7 in January. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.2 to 51.6 during the same reported period. The Services PMI dropped from 52.9 in January to 49.7 in February, signaling a loss of momentum in the services sector.

    On the other hand, concerns about the US economy and new tariff threats from US President Donald Trump cast a cloud over world markets. This, in turn, might boost the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for EUR/USD. 

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

     



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  • Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test

    Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test


    • EUR/USD slips to 1.0450 on Tuesday, cooling off after last week’s strong rally.
    • RSI declines sharply to 55, signaling waning bullish momentum while MACD remains flat with green bars.
    • The 20-day and 100-day SMAs are converging near 1.0450, raising concerns over a potential bearish crossover.

    EUR/USD took a step back on Tuesday, shedding 0.32% to trade near 1.0450 as bulls lost some ground after last week’s impressive rally. The pair remains above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader outlook constructive for now. However, the latest price action suggests that buying momentum is fading.

    Technical indicators reflect this shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply declined to 55, showing weakening bullish traction, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, highlighting hesitation among buyers. A key technical factor to watch is the 20-day and 100-day SMA convergence around 1.0450. If a bearish crossover materializes, it could invalidate recent gains and reinforce a downside bias.

    For now, as long as EUR/USD holds above the 20-day SMA, buyers still have a chance to push higher. However, a sustained break below this level would expose the pair to further losses, with immediate support at 1.0420 and deeper downside risks toward 1.0380.

    EUR/USD daily chart



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  • EUR/USD recovers strongly as Trump defers tariff plans for Canada and Mexico

    EUR/USD recovers strongly as Trump defers tariff plans for Canada and Mexico


    • EUR/USD rebounds sharply to near 1.0350 as US President Trump postpones his orders of tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days.
    • Trump’s intentions to impose tariffs on China remain intact.
    • The ECB is expected to cut interest rates three times more this year.

    EUR/USD bounces back from the intraday low of 1.0270 and rebounds to near 1.0350 in Tuesday’s North American session. The major currency pair finds buyers’ demand as United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to postpone tariffs on Canada and Mexico has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar (USD).

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, surrenders its intraday gains and trades at 108.44 at the time of writing, right on track to Monday’s low of 108.40.

    US President Trump suspended tariff imposition on his North American partners after they agreed to cooperate to stop the flow of fentanyl. On the other hand, the president’s proposal of imposing 10% tariffs on China is still on the table, and moreover, he has even proposed to go further. “China hopefully is going to stop sending us fentanyl, and if they’re not, the tariffs are going to go substantially higher,” Trump said.

    Meanwhile, China has delivered a swift response to Trump’s tariffs with higher levies of 15% on Coal and Liquified Natural Gas (LNG), and 10% for Crude Oil, farm equipment, and some autos.

    Such a scenario indicates that the trade war will not go global and will remain majorly between the US and China, which has weighed on demand for safe-haven assets.

    On the economic front, the US Dollar will be guided by a slew of labor market-related economic indicators this week, such as JOLTS Job Openings, ADP Employment Change and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, and the US ISM Services PMI figures.

    The labor market data will influence market speculation for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook for the entire year. Currently, the Fed is in a waiting mode in interest rates until it sees any “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”.

    US Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.49% -0.24% 0.36% -1.25% -0.53% -0.40% -0.47%
    EUR 0.49%   0.25% 0.85% -0.77% -0.04% 0.09% 0.01%
    GBP 0.24% -0.25%   0.58% -1.02% -0.29% -0.16% -0.23%
    JPY -0.36% -0.85% -0.58%   -1.59% -0.87% -0.75% -0.81%
    CAD 1.25% 0.77% 1.02% 1.59%   0.73% 0.86% 0.81%
    AUD 0.53% 0.04% 0.29% 0.87% -0.73%   0.13% 0.09%
    NZD 0.40% -0.09% 0.16% 0.75% -0.86% -0.13%   -0.07%
    CHF 0.47% -0.01% 0.23% 0.81% -0.81% -0.09% 0.07%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD rebounds at USD’s expense

    • The recovery move in the EUR/USD pair has come from some weakness in the US Dollar, while the outlook for the Euro (EUR) continues to remain uncertain as investors expect the Eurozone would be the next to face lethal tariff threats by US President Trump. Over the weekend, Trump said that he would definitely impose tariffs on the Eurozone after accusing the old continent of not buying enough US cars and farm products. He added that the EU takes “almost nothing and we take everything from them”.
    • In response to Trump’s tariff threats, French President Emmanuel Macron said that the European Union (EU) would retaliate if its interests were targeted. “If our commercial interests are attacked, Europe, as a true power, will have to make itself respected and therefore react,” Macron said, The Guardian reported.
    • Market experts believe that trade and investment between the old continent and the US are one of the largest globally, and a trade war between them would accelerate inflation and lead to an economic disruption. Higher Eurozone inflation would also create troubles for the European Central Bank (ECB), which is on the policy expansion path amid confidence that price pressures will sustainably return to the central bank’s target of 2% this year. 
    • On Tuesday, ECB policymaker and French Central Bank Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said, “There probably will be more ECB rate cuts as we are nearing to 2% inflation target.”
    • The ECB reduced its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% and guided that the monetary policy path is clear. Traders are confident that the ECB will deliver three more interest rate cuts by the summer.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD aims to return above 20-day EMA

    EUR/USD recovers from its three-week low of 1.0210 to trade near 1.0350 on Tuesday, but is still trading below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) around 1.0379 and 1.0439, respectively, suggesting a bearish trend.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 40.00. A bearish momentum could trigger if the RSI breaks below that level.

    Looking down, the January 13 low of 1.0177 and the round-level support of 1.0100 will act as major support zones for the pair. Conversely, the psychological resistance of 1.0500 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

    Tariffs FAQs

    Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

    Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

    There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

    During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

     



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  • Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test

    EUR/USD slides as soft inflation in Germany’s six states validates ECB dovish bets


    • EUR/USD declines to near 1.0370 as inflation in six states of Germany decelerates in January.
    • Donald Trump threatens to impose 100% tariffs on BRICS and 25% on Mexico and Canada.
    • The Fed kept interest rates at their current levels on Wednesday.

    EUR/USD faces selling pressure and declines to near 1.0370 in Friday’s European session. The major currency pair declines as the Euro (EUR) weakens across the board amid a slowdown in inflationary pressures in six German states. Softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January boosts confidence that Eurozone price pressures are on track to return sustainably to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) desired rate of 2%, which will support the central bank in easing the monetary policy.

    On Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde showed confidence in announcing a victory over inflation this year in the monetary policy statement after the central bank reduced its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%. In Friday’s European session, ECB policymaker and Estonian Central Bank chief Madis Muller also said that it is realistic for inflation to be near 2% “by the middle of this year”.

    Christine Lagarde’s comments at the press conference indicated that the ECB has kept the door open for further policy easing. Lagarde said that we are still in “restrictive territory” and it is premature to “anticipate at what point where will stop”. She avoided providing a pre-defined interest rate cut path and reiterated that we decide meeting by meeting based on data.

    Going forward, investors will focus on the flash Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for January, which will be released on Monday.

    But before that, the preliminary German HICP data for January will be published at 13:00 GMT. However, the impact is expected to be limited, as the inflation data in six German states have already indicated the current status of price pressures.

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.28% 0.14% 0.25% 0.04% 0.04% -0.08% 0.15%
    EUR -0.28%   -0.14% -0.05% -0.23% -0.23% -0.38% -0.12%
    GBP -0.14% 0.14%   0.10% -0.09% -0.11% -0.24% 0.01%
    JPY -0.25% 0.05% -0.10%   -0.21% -0.21% -0.37% -0.10%
    CAD -0.04% 0.23% 0.09% 0.21%   -0.02% -0.15% 0.10%
    AUD -0.04% 0.23% 0.11% 0.21% 0.02%   -0.14% 0.12%
    NZD 0.08% 0.38% 0.24% 0.37% 0.15% 0.14%   0.26%
    CHF -0.15% 0.12% -0.01% 0.10% -0.10% -0.12% -0.26%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD weakens as Trump’s tariff threats improve USD’s appeal

    • EUR/USD remains under pressure as the broader outlook of the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling around 108.20. The safe-haven appeal of the Greenback strengthens as United States (US) President Donald Trump reiterated his intentions of imposing hefty tariffs on his North American peers and BRICS on Thursday.
    • Donald Trump said on his social media platform, TruthSocial, that he requires a commitment from the BRICS that it will “neither create a new currency nor back any other currency” to replace the US Dollar. Trump threatened that any country tries should “face 100% tariffs”, and expect to say “goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy.”
    • Market experts believe that Donald Trump is using tariff measures as a tool to fulfill his economic agenda, and the imposition of hefty tariffs will be inflationary for the US economy. Such a scenario would support the Federal Reserve (Fed) in holding its stance of keeping interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for longer.
    • On Wednesday, the Fed maintained the status quo and guided to remain in the waiting mode until the central bank sees any “real progress in inflation or some weakness in the labor market”.
    • Meanwhile, the next move in the US Dollar will be guided by the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for December, which will be published at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect monthly core PCE inflation to have grown at a faster pace of 0.2%, compared to a 0.1% increase in November. Year-on-year, core PCE is estimated to have grown steadily by 2.8%.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD returns below 20-day EMA

    EUR/USD declines to near 1.0370 in Friday’s European session, below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around 1.0390. The major currency pair resumed its correction after failing to sustain above the 50-day EMA, which trades around 1.0449 at the press time.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) faces barricades near 60.00. Such a scenario indicates that the recovery move was short-lived.

    Looking down, the January 20 low of 1.0266 and January 13 low of 1.0177 will act as major support for the pair. Conversely, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

     



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  • Investors’ focus shifts to the ECB meeting and data

    Investors’ focus shifts to the ECB meeting and data


    The US Dollar traded in a positive fashion after the Fed left its interest rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, and Chief Powell delivered a neutral message at his press conference.

    Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 30:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) kept the weekly bid bias in place helped by rising yields and Powell’s tone. Another revision of Q4 GDP Growth Rate is due seconded by the weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales.

    EUR/USD dropped to the sub-1.0400 region, or four-day lows, in response to further strength in the Greenback and prudence ahead of the ECB event on Thursday. The ECB meeting and press conference by President C. Lagarde will take centre stage, followed by preliminary Q4 GDP Growth Rate prints in Germany and the broader Euroland, as well as EMU’s Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment.

    GBP/USD rebounded from lows in the sub-1.2400 region, eventually ending the day around Tuesday’s closing levels. The BoE’s M4 Money Supply and Consumer Credit figures are expected along with Mortgage Approvals and Mortgage Lending.

    USD/JPY remained choppy, trading just above the 155.00 hurdle and fading part of Tuesday’s advance. The usual weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures will be released followed by the speech by the BoJ’s Himino.

    AUD/USD retreated for the third consecutive day, this time putting the 0.6200 support to the test. Export and Import Prices in Australia are due along with the speech by the RBA’s Jones.

    WTI resumed its bearish leg and broke below the $73.00 mark per barrel to flirt with fresh four-week lows.

    Gold prices faced renewed downside pressure, briefly revisiting the $2,750 zone per ounce troy following USD dynamics and the FOMC gathering. Silver prices added to Tuesday’s advance and flirted with multi-day peaks near the $31.00 mark per ounce.



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  • US data and Trump dictate the sentiment in the FX galaxy

    US data and Trump dictate the sentiment in the FX galaxy


    The US Dollar regained some balance and managed to set aside part of the weekly pullback as market participants continued to assess headlines around Trump 2.0.

    Here is what you need to know on Thursday, January 23:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) clawed back some gains, although a move above the 108.00 hurdle appeared elusive for the time being. The usual weekly initial Jobless Claims take centre stage, seconded by the EIA’s report on US crude oil inventories.

    EUR/USD’s upside momentum lost some impetus in the area of multi-week peaks north of 1.0400 the figure. The European Commission will publish its advanced Consumer Confidence gauge for the month of January.

    GBP/USD traded on the back foot in response to the modest uptick in the Greenback. The CBI Business Optimism Index and the CBI Industrial Trends Orders will be in the spotlight.

    USD/JPY maintained its weekly choppiness well in place, this time surpassing the 156.00 barrier as investors kept warming up for the BoJ meeting on January 24. The Balance of Trade results come next, followed by weekly Foreign Bond Investment prints.

    Another inconclusive session left AUD/USD hovering around the vicinity of the key 0.6300 area. The preliminary S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will grab all the attention in Oz.

    Prices of WTI extended their leg lower and flirted once again with the $75.00 region per barrel as investors continued to adjust to Trump’s policies.

    Prices of Gold advanced for the third session in a row, surpassing $2,760 per ounce troy amid persistent uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s announcements. Silver prices met some selling pressure after faltering just ahead of the key $31.00 mark per ounce.



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  • German Retail Sales climb 2.5% YoY in November vs. 1.9% expected


    Germany’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% MoM in November after declining 1.5% in October, the official data released by Destatis showed on Wednesday.

    Annually, Retail Sales in the Eurozone’s top economy rose by 2.5% in November versus 1.9% expected and 1.0% in October.

    EUR/USD reaction to the German data

    Mixed German data serves negative for the Euro, driving EUR/USD slightly lower at around 1.0345, flat on the day, as of writing.

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.00% -0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03%
    EUR -0.00%   -0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03%
    GBP 0.03% 0.03%   0.10% -0.04% 0.05% 0.02% 0.07%
    JPY -0.05% -0.05% -0.10%   -0.12% -0.04% -0.07% -0.02%
    CAD 0.07% 0.07% 0.04% 0.12%   0.08% 0.06% 0.09%
    AUD -0.02% -0.02% -0.05% 0.04% -0.08%   -0.02% 0.01%
    NZD 0.01% 0.00% -0.02% 0.07% -0.06% 0.02%   0.04%
    CHF -0.03% -0.03% -0.07% 0.02% -0.09% -0.01% -0.04%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

     



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  • Pair remains under 20-day SMA, retreated towars 1.0370


    • EUR/USD inches lower to 1.0370 on Tuesday after repeated rejections at the 20-day SMA.
    • The RSI rises to 45, suggesting improving momentum but still hinting at a cautious outlook.
    • MACD shows flat green bars, indicating easing bearish pressure yet no clear bullish shift.

    EUR/USD managed to climb towards the 1.0370-1.0390 area at the begging of the year, continuing its fragile attempt to recover from recent losses. Despite this uptick, the pair has repeatedly struggled to decisively break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) since the start of 2025, reinforcing the notion that sellers may still dictate the short-term direction.

    Technical readings are mixed. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lately improved to 45 suggesting a modest pickup in buying interest but it remains in negative territory, indicating that buyers are not yet fully in control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, implying that bearish momentum is easing but hasn’t given way to a sustained bullish push.

    Looking ahead, a solid move above the 20-day SMA would be necessary to establish a more convincing recovery and open the door for further gains. Absent that, the pair remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, keeping its recent bounce on cautious footing.

    EUR/USD daily chart



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