Tag: EURUSD

  • EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.1350 on renewed US Dollar demand

    EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.1350 on renewed US Dollar demand


    • EUR/USD slumps to near 1.1355 in Wednesday’s early Asian session, down 0.58% on the day. 
    • Trump said he had no intention of firing Fed’s Powell, despite being frustrated with the high interest rates.
    • Traders ramp up ECB rate cut bets in the June meeting. 

    The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers to around 1.1355 during the early Asian session on Wednesday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. The Greenback recovers after US President Donald Trump said he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell despite his frustration with the central bank not moving more quickly to slash interest rates.

    The White House said on Tuesday that the Trump administration was making progress on negotiations of trade deals aimed at reducing the sweeping tariffs he announced earlier this month. US Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said that 18 different countries have presented trade offers to the US and that Trump’s trade team was meeting with 34 countries this week to discuss potential agreements. The positive developments surrounding US trade talks with trading partners lift the USD and act as a headwind for the major pair. 

    Additionally, the hawkish comments from the Fed officials contribute to the Greenback’s upside. Fed Board Governor Adriana Kugler said late Tuesday that with US import tariffs significantly larger than expected and likely to put upward pressure on prices, the US central bank ought to keep short-term borrowing costs steady until inflation risks recede.

    Across the pond, the rising expectation that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting weighs on the shared currency. Traders are now pricing in nearly a 75% odds of a June rate cut, up from roughly 60% before the ECB’s decision, according to LSEG data.

    Investors will keep an eye on the preliminary reading of the HCOB Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Eurozone and Germany for April, which is due later on Wednesday. On the US docket, the flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs for April will be published. 

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
    EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
    The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
    The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
    Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
    A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
    Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

     

     

     



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  • EUR/USD holds onto gains as Trump assaults Fed’s autonomy

    EUR/USD holds onto gains as Trump assaults Fed’s autonomy


    • EUR/USD sticks to gains near 1.1500 as the US Dollar has been battered by Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence.
    • Trump blames Fed Powell for the potential US economic slowdown.
    • The ECB is expected to cut interest rates in June due to escalating downside risks to Eurozone inflation.

    EUR/USD trades firmly around 1.1500 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair is taking a sigh of relief after a strong rally in the last few weeks. The pair seems to be gearing up for a fresh upward move as the US Dollar (USD) is expected to continue facing the burden of growing tensions between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and United States (US) President Donald Trump over the monetary policy.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aims to find a cushion after refreshing a three-year low near 98.00.

    US President Trump continues to criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates and warned that the economy could face a downturn if they are not reduced immediately. 

    “With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote in a post on TruthSocial on Monday.

    Meanwhile, Jerome Powell has been supporting keeping interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% until it becomes clear whether inflation led by new economic policies is persistent or short-lived. 

    US President Trump has also threatened to remove Powell over a year before the completion of his term for not lowering interest rates. It is still debatable whether Donald Trump can sack Powell, but the situation will remain the same as the decision on borrowing rates will be eventually taken by other Fed members, and none of them has spoken out about easing the monetary policy immediately.

    The signs of political interference in the operations of the Fed, which is an autonomous institution, have led to a steep decline in the safe-haven status of the US Dollar. Investors doubt the credibility of the US Dollar and US assets under the threat of Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains firm at US Dollar’s expense

    • EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1500 at the expense of the US Dollar, whose safe-haven status has been questioned due to events of ever-changing tariff headlines by Donald Trump and his feud with Fed Powell. Trump announced a 90-day pause in executing reciprocal tariffs after getting responses from his trading partners to make a fair deal. However, the intact trade war between the US and China has kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.
    • The impact of the intensified trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses has battered the global economic outlook, including the US, given that American importers will bear the burden of higher tariffs, which they will pass on to consumers. Such a scenario will diminish households’ purchasing power significantly.
    • During European trading hours, the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously as traders have become increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting. ECB dovish bets have swelled on increasing downside risks to Eurozone inflation amid fears of global economic turmoil.
    • Analysts at Citi anticipated price growth of 1.6% next year and 1.8% in 2027 last week before the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday. These predictions came before the ECB’s monetary policy announcement, in which the central bank reduced its key borrowing rates for the seventh time in the current monetary easing cycle and guided a grim economic outlook.
    • In the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that downside risks for the Eurozone economy have increased. Lagarde said that the economic outlook is “clouded by uncertainty” as trade disruptions would weigh on “business investment.”
    • Going forward, the next trigger for the Euro will be the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data of the Eurozone and its nations for April, which will be released on Wednesday.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1500

    EUR/USD grips gains near 1.1500 in Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair strengthened after a breakout above the April 11 high of 1.1474. Advancing 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0850 suggests a strong upside trend.

    The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to overbought levels around 75.00, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.

    Looking up, the round-level figure of 1.1600 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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    Finding the right broker for trading EUR/USD is crucial, and we’ve identified the top choices for this major currency pair. Read about their unique features to make an informed decision.



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  • EUR/USD climbs as US Dollar weakens on trade tensions

    EUR/USD climbs as US Dollar weakens on trade tensions


    • Euro edges higher amid US Dollar pressure after the White House pushes tariffs on Chinese ships, fueling global trade risks.
    • Trump reportedly furious with Fed Chair Powell; adviser says President reviewing legality of dismissal.
    • ECB’s Muller says lower energy prices and tariffs justify rate cut, though warns fragmentation may fuel inflation ahead.

    The Euro (EUR) advances against the US Dollar (USD) in muted trading as financial markets are closed on Good Friday. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades at 1.1385, up 0.21%, lacking the strength to break the elusive 1.14 mark.

    EUR/USD up 0.21% in holiday-thinned trading as markets digest US-China shipping levies and renewed Fed independence concerns

    The financial markets’ narrative remains focused on the United States’ (US) controversial trade policies, which drove prices to dump the Greenback in favor of other G8 FX peers, like the shared currency.

    Still, the White House is moving forward with applying levies on Chinese ships docking at US ports, which would threaten to shake up global shipping routes and escalate the trade war between China and the US.

    On Thursday, breaking news revealed that President Trump was angered at Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and considered ousting him. Although market participants did not react to the headline, recently, White House Senior Adviser Kevin Hassett insisted that “Trump is studying whether firing Fed’s Powell is an option.”

    In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six other currencies, falls 0.09%, down to 99.31.

    With the news flow light, European Central Bank’s (ECB) Madis Müller revealed that the drop in energy prices and tariffs supported the rate cut. He added that police do not remain a constraint and that key indicators are moving in the right direction. He also pointed out that a more fragmented economy could push prices up.

    EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    EUR/USD trades near the current week’s peak near 1.1400, with price action showing the Euro is poised to extend its gains past that area, opening the door for further upside. Key resistance levels are at the April 11 high at 1.1473, followed by 1.1498, the February 2022 peak, ahead of the 1.1500 figure.

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
    EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
    The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
    The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
    Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
    A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
    Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
    If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.



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  • Japanese CPI data will take centre stage on Good Friday

    Japanese CPI data will take centre stage on Good Friday


    The Greenback grabbed some much-needed oxygen on Maundy Thursday despite alternating risk appetite trends. In addition, investors shifted their attention to another round of the Trump-Powell effervescence after Trump urged the Fed to slash interest rates and said Chair Powell should be removed as soon as possible, repeating past threats to fire him. The comments came a day after Powell emphasised the Fed’s independence in a speech.

    Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 18:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) posted decent gains on Thursday, although it maintained its business in the lower end of the recent range near three-year lows. The Fed’s Daly is due to speak amid the widespread inactivity in the global markets on Good Friday.

    Unlike its risk-linked peers, EUR/USD traded with noticeable losses despite briefly surpassing the 1.1400 barrier earlier in the day. The European Commission (EC) will publish its preliminary Consumer Confidence gauge on April 22.

    GBP/USD kept its march north well and sound for yet another day, although gains appeared capped by the vicinity of 1.3270. Public Sector Net Borrowing figures will be next on the UK calendar on April 22.

    After bottoming out around 141.60, USD/JPY managed to regain balance and advance past the 142.00 hurdle, up modestly for the day. The Japanese Inflation Rate will be the only release on the docket.

    AUD/USD ended the day with modest gains around the 0.6380-0.6390 band, clinching its seventh daily advance in a row. The flash S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs are due on April 23.

    Fresh sanctions on Iranian crude oil exports and renewed supply concerns motivated prices of WTI to climb just above the $64.00 mark per barrel, reaching new two-week highs.

    Prices of Gold came under fresh selling pressure on Thursday, slipping back below the $3,300 mark per troy ounce on the back of a better tone in the risk-related assets. Silver prices followed suit and flirted with three-day troughs near the $32.00 mark per ounce.



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  • Focus remains on US inflation, this time with Producer Prices

    Focus remains on US inflation, this time with Producer Prices


    The Greenback plummeted to fresh lows amid persistent concerns over the US-China trade war and its potential impact on both the global and US economies.

    Here is what you need to know on Friday, April 11:

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) tumbled to new multi-month lows in the sub-101.00 region amid shrinking US yields across the curve. Producer Prices will be released, seconded by the advanced Michigan Consumer Sentiment and speeches by the Fed’s Musalem and Williams.

    EUR/USD advanced to new highs after breaking above the key 1.1200 round level. The final Inflation Rate in Germany and the Current Account prints are next on tap.

    GBP/USD added to the weekly recovery and came closer to the 1.3000 milestone. The GDP figures, Goods Trade Balance results, Industrial and Manufacturing Production, Construction Output, and the NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker are all due across the Channel.

    USD/JPY retreated markedly and revisited the area of recent troughs around the 144.00 neighbourhood. Capacity Utilization and the final Industrial Production readings will be published on April 14 in Japan.

    AUD/USD climbed to four-day highs after reclaiming the 0.6200 hurdle on the back of the US Dollar’s sell-off. Next of note in Oz will be the release of the RBA Minutes on April 15.

    Prices of WTI partially left behind Wednesday’s strong rebound and resumed its downtrend, slipping back to levels below the $59.00 mark per barrel on intense tariff concerns.

    Prices of Gold surged to an all-time high near the $3,180 mark per troy ounce on the back of the steep drop in the greenback, trade war jitters and declining US yields. Silver prices rose further and reached four-day tops near $31.30 per ounce, surpassing at the same time their key 200-day SMA.



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  • Forex Today: The release of US CPI grabs all the attention

    Forex Today: The release of US CPI grabs all the attention



    The Greenback reversed its initial loses to three-day lows and ended the session virtually unchanged in response to a late recovery fuelled by President Trump’s announcement of a 90-day delay on reciprocal tariffs.



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  • EUR/USD surges as Trump tariffs fuel US stagflation fears

    EUR/USD surges as Trump tariffs fuel US stagflation fears


    • EUR/USD soars above 1.1100 as the US Dollar has been hit hard by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.
    • US President Trump has announced 20% reciprocal levies on the Eurozone.
    • EC von der Leyen vows to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.

    EUR/USD climbs to its highest level since October around 1.1145 in Thursday’s European session and gains more than 2% on the day. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) takes the bullet for long-term transition in the United States (US) economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 101.30, the lowest level seen in six months.

    On Wednesday, US Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran agreed that tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump could lead to short-term bumps in the economy but will be favorable for long-term prospects. His comments came after Trump unveiled planned reciprocal tariffs. Trump announced a 10% baseline duty on all imports to the US and additional specific levies on most of its trading allies. Some leaders from targeted nations have threatened to retaliate with countermeasures. 

    Market participants expect Trump’s tariffs will lead to a global economic slowdown, including in the US. Experts believe that new import duties are higher than expected and sufficient to send the US economy into a recession. Such a scenario paves the way for stagflation, assuming that higher levies will dampen efforts made by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to contain sticky inflationary pressures. This will complicate the Fed’s job of maintaining inflation near the 2% target with full employment.

    Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be released on Friday. The official employment data will influence market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change data showed that the private sector added 155K fresh workers in March, significantly higher than the expectations of 105K and the former release of 84K.

    In Thursday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the S&P Global and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, which will be published during North American trading hours. The S&P Global Services PMI is estimated to align with the preliminary reading of 54.3. The ISM Services PMI is expected to come in lower at 53.0 from February’s reading of 53.5, suggesting that activities in the services sector grew moderately.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD rallies despite growing concerns over Eurozone economic outlook

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -2.01% -0.94% -1.90% -0.78% -0.81% -1.21% -2.29%
    EUR 2.01% 0.82% 0.08% 1.28% 1.23% 0.82% -0.28%
    GBP 0.94% -0.82% -0.73% 0.45% 0.43% 0.01% -1.12%
    JPY 1.90% -0.08% 0.73% 1.16% 1.16% 0.60% -0.39%
    CAD 0.78% -1.28% -0.45% -1.16% 0.06% -0.44% -1.56%
    AUD 0.81% -1.23% -0.43% -1.16% -0.06% -0.41% -1.51%
    NZD 1.21% -0.82% -0.01% -0.60% 0.44% 0.41% -1.14%
    CHF 2.29% 0.28% 1.12% 0.39% 1.56% 1.51% 1.14%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1150

    EUR/USD rallies to near 1.1150 on Thursday after a decisive breakout above the prior resistance of 1.0955, trading at levels not seen since early October. The near-term outlook of the major currency pair has turned extremely bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resumes its upside journey, trading around 1.0800.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps around 70.00 after cooling down to near 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has resumed.

    Looking down, the mid-March resistance zone around 1.0955 is the first support to consider, followed by the March 31 high of 1.0850. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.



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  • US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy

    US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy


    European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen responded to US President Donald Trump’s ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on Thursday, noting that “US tariffs are a major blow to the world economy.”

    Additional quotes

    “The consequences will be dire for millions of people around the world.”

    “All businesses will suffer.”

    “There seems to be no order in the disorder.”

    “Agrees with Trump that others are taking unfair advantage of the current rules.”

    “EU has always been ready to negotiate with the US.”

    “Preparing for further counter measures on US tariffs if negotiations fail.”

    “We are ready to respond.”

    “We are preparing further package of measures to protect our interests.”

    “Many feel let down by our old ally.”

    Market reaction

    The Euro (EUR) pays little heed to these headlines, as EUR/USD adds 0.54% on the day to trade near 1.0920 as of writing.



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  • EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.1350 on renewed US Dollar demand

    EUR/USD consolidates as traders holder their breath ahead of tariffs


    • EUR/USD continued to churn near the 1.0800 level on Tuesday.
    • Markets are bracing for tariff announcements from the Trump administration on Wednesday.
    • Economic data takes a back seat to Trump tariff stress, but NFP still looms ahead.

    EUR/USD stuck to familiar levels on Tuesday, churning chart paper close to the 1.0800 handle as investors brace for US President Donald Trump’s long-threatened “reciprocal” tariffs package, due to be announced on Wednesday at 1900 GMT (4 pm EST). The exact details of President Trump’s ever-changing tariff proposals remain cloudy at best, and are due to change several times or even be outright delayed, as Donald Trump has already done on four separate occasions since taking office 71 days ago.

    Forex Today: It is all about “Liberation Day”

    The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the United States Trade Representative Office may be preparing a last-minute alternative tariff proposal to present to Donald Trump in an effort to alleviate and streamline a lopsided pile of tariff threats from the US President over the past 71 days.

    European inflation figures for March came in with little surprises on Tuesday. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for March sank faster than expected, falling to 49.0 from 50.3 as businesses hunker down ahead of expected tariff announcements. Median market forecasts expected a print of 49.5 or better. The ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index also fell sharply for the second month in a row, declining to a two-year low of 45.2.

    European economic data remains strictly mid-tier through the remainder of the trading week, however most traders will be busy juggling tariff reactions through Wednesday anyway. However, a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures are due this Friday. This NFP release could be a major datapoint for markets as the US economy heads into a post-tariff economic environment, with March’s labor data set to act as a “bellwether” for the impacts of the Trump team’s tariff plans.

    EUR/USD price forecast

    EUR/USD continues to trade in the middle of a technical trap, with buyers unable to take a firm leg higher, but short pressure too limited to push Fiber price action back under the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) just south of the 1.0700 handle.

    EUR/USD snapped a near-term losing streak, pushing technical oscillators into oversold territory, but a continuation pattern remains unlikely as market participants focus on geopolitical factors.

    EUR/USD daily chart

    Dow Jones FAQs

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

    Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

    Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

    There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

     



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  • EUR/USD trades cautiously ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement

    EUR/USD trades cautiously ahead of Trump’s tariffs announcement


    • EUR/USD finds cushion near 1.0780 after the release of the weak US ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data.
    • The Eurozone inflation grows at a faster pace in March on month but cools down on a yearly basis.
    • Market participants are mixed over whether Trump’s tariffs would lead to a recession in the US.

    EUR/USD recovers some intraday losses and rises to near 1.0800 during the North American trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair rebounds slightly after the release of the United States (US) ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March and the JOLTS Job Openings data for February, which came in weaker-than-expected.

    The ISM Manufacturing PMI report showed that activities contracted at a faster-than-expected pace. The economic data fell to 49.0 from February’s reading of 50.3. Economists expected the Manufacturing PMI to have contracted to 49.5. Meanwhile, US JOLTS Job Openings data landed at 7.57 million jobs in February, slightly lower than the expectations of 7.63 million and the prior release of 7.76 million.

    However, the shared currency pair is expected to trade cautiously ahead of the release of reciprocal tariffs by US President Donald Trump on Wednesday. Market participants anticipate Trump’s tariffs to deliver economic shocks globally, including in the US, as domestic importers will bear the burden of higher prices.

    The White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20% on most imports to the US, according to the Washington Post.

    Investors expect that Trump’s economic policies could also lead to a recession in the US. Market participants’ confidence in recession risks escalated after a slew of US officials, including President Donald Trump, didn’t rule out the possibility of economic damage when asked whether new policies could lead to a recession.

    Meanwhile, investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has also revised its chances for a potential recession to 35%, up from their prior expectations of 20%. The upward revision for recession risks was based on a sharp “deterioration in household and business confidence”.

    International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva also signaled in an interview with Reuters NEXT Newsmaker on Monday that Trump’s push for imposing reciprocal tariffs has created greater uncertainty and dented confidence, but ruled out fears of a recession. Georgieva said that the IMF is not seeing a” dramatic impact” from the tariffs slapped and threatened so far by Trump.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD faces pressure after Eurozone inflation data

    • EUR/USD drops after the release of the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the Eurozone Unemployment Rate for February.
    • In 12 months to March, the Eurozone HICP rose by 2.2%, as expected, slower than the 2.3% increase seen in February. In the same period, the core HICP grew moderately by 2.4% compared to expectations of 2.5% and the former release of 2.6%. On a monthly basis, the headline and core HICP – which excludes volatile items such as food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco – rose by 0.6% and 1%, respectively. The Unemployment Rate decelerated to 6.1% in February from the prior release and the estimates of 6.2%. Soft Eurozone inflation data is expected to force European Central Bank (ECB) officials to cut interest rates again on April 17.
    • Going forward, the major trigger for the Euro (EUR) will be the detailed reciprocal tariff plan by US President Trump, which will show a fresh suite of import duties on the Eurozone. Market participants expect Trump to announce a significant number of tariff measures on the Eurozone as the President has blamed the European Union (EU) for adopting unfair trade practices against the US. Fresh tariffs by Donald Trump would be inflationary and weaker for growth in the shared continent.
    • The announcement of a 25% levy on imports of foreign cars and light trucks into the US, which will become effective on Wednesday, has already forced financial market participants to revise down their growth forecasts for Germany, given that 13% of the country’s total auto exports are taken by the US.
    • The European Commission (EC) has prepared countermeasures in advance to respond to Trump’s expected new suite of tariffs, as reported by EC President Ursula von der Leyen during European trading hours on Tuesday. “We do not necessarily want to retaliate, but if it is necessary, we have a strong plan to do so, and we will use it,” von der Leyen said, adding that we have the power to “push back against US tariffs”.
    • On Monday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview with France Inter radio that she sees April 2, touted as “Liberation Day” by Trump, as a moment when we must together decide to take “better control of our destiny” and a step towards independence.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD ticks lower to near 20-day EMA

     

    EUR/USD falls to near 1.0800 against the US Dollar on Tuesday. However, the near-term outlook of the pair remains firm as it holds the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0776.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) cools down below 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum is over, but the upside bias is intact.

    Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

     



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  • Increase in long-term yields tightens financial conditions

    Increase in long-term yields tightens financial conditions


    European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker François Villeroy de Galhau said Thursday that “an increase in long-term yields, all things being equal, tightens financial conditions.”

    “France needs to bring back the deficit to 3%,” he added.

    Market reaction

    The EUR/USD pair is oscillating in a narrow range around 1.0775, up 0.14% at the time of writing.

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.15% -0.24% 0.24% 0.19% -0.08% -0.15% 0.09%
    EUR 0.15%   -0.11% 0.36% 0.32% 0.04% -0.02% 0.22%
    GBP 0.24% 0.11%   0.45% 0.43% 0.15% 0.08% 0.34%
    JPY -0.24% -0.36% -0.45%   -0.06% -0.34% -0.41% -0.14%
    CAD -0.19% -0.32% -0.43% 0.06%   -0.27% -0.34% -0.09%
    AUD 0.08% -0.04% -0.15% 0.34% 0.27%   -0.06% 0.19%
    NZD 0.15% 0.02% -0.08% 0.41% 0.34% 0.06%   0.26%
    CHF -0.09% -0.22% -0.34% 0.14% 0.09% -0.19% -0.26%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).



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  • EUR/USD holds onto gains as Trump assaults Fed’s autonomy

    Correction deepens as sellers eye key technical floor


    • EUR/USD trades near the 1.0800 zone, mildly lower after Monday’s European session.
    • Bearish momentum builds as the pair extends its losing streak to four consecutive sessions.
    • The downside could accelerate toward 1.0730 if sellers break through current support levels.

    During Monday’s session after the European close, EUR/USD continued to retreat and was last seen moving around the 1.0800 area. The pair remains in a corrective phase after its strong March rally, with technical signals now favoring further downside pressure. The latest price action marks the fourth consecutive daily loss, suggesting that bulls are stepping aside for now.

    From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply declined but still remains deep in positive territory near the 60 level, which signals that the pair may continue correcting until momentum resets. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has begun to print red bars, highlighting a shift in momentum that supports additional downside pressure.

    The next critical support comes into play around the 1.0730 region, where the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages converge. A break below that floor could reinforce the bearish case and open the door toward 1.0670. On the flip side, any bullish recovery would likely find initial resistance near 1.0860, followed by the psychological 1.0900 handle.

    EUR/USD daily chart



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  • EUR/USD surges as Trump tariffs fuel US stagflation fears

    Squeezing the last bits of fiscal optimism – ING


    Our considerations above on somewhat fading optimism on a speedy ceasefire in Ukraine have likely contributed to softer EUR momentum, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

    EUR/USD to return above 1.090 by Wednesday

    “EUR/USD is still around 1% above our estimate for its short-term fair value, as a two-year swap rate gap around -150bp is more consistent with 1.07 than 1.09, and our one-month view on the pair remains bearish. However, this week is quite data-heavy and the euro could squeeze some extra benefit from fiscal optimism.”

    “We have a few European Central Bank speakers to watch this week, but we are quite doubtful that any new guidance will emerge before we see more clarity on the impact of US tariffs.” 

    “Our call for this week is a return above 1.090 in EUR/USD by Wednesday followed by some softness towards the back end of the week as markets look past data and build more defensive positions ahead of the 2 April tariff event. We still doubt there is enough bullish thrust to take the pair above 1.10.”



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  • Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.7% below forecasts (1%) in February



    Germany Producer Price Index (YoY) came in at 0.7% below forecasts (1%) in February



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  • EUR/USD tumbles to near 1.1350 on renewed US Dollar demand

    EUR/USD corrects ahead of Fed’s policy decision


    • EUR/USD faces selling pressure near 1.0950 as the US Dollar strengthens ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.
    • The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%.
    • The Euro drops despite German leaders agreed on increasing the borrowing limit in the lower house of Parliament.

    EUR/USD corrects to near 1.0900 in Wednesday’s New York session after posting a fresh five-month high near 1.0955 the previous day. The major currency pair weakens as the Euro (EUR) underperforms, except against antipodeans. The Euro drops even though German leaders approved likely Chancellor Frederich Merz’s debt restructuring plan on Tuesday at Bundestag lower house Parliament, aiming to stimulate economic growth and boost defense spending.

    Market participants expect that an end to German fiscal conservatism after over a decade will be inflationary and pro-growth for the economy. Such a scenario will force the European Central Bank (ECB) to turn cautious about the current monetary expansion cycle. The ECB has reduced interest rates six times since June 2024.

    Also, investors expect that US President Trump’s tariff agenda could accelerate price pressures in the Eurozone. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in an interview with Fox Business that each country will receive a number on “April 2” that we believe represents their “tariffs”.

    On the geopolitical front, US President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin agreed to seek an inmediate 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on energy and infrastructure targets.

    “We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. 

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.34% 0.21% 0.27% 0.14% 0.40% 0.49% 0.20%
    EUR -0.34%   -0.14% -0.05% -0.20% 0.07% 0.15% -0.14%
    GBP -0.21% 0.14%   0.08% -0.06% 0.21% 0.29% -0.02%
    JPY -0.27% 0.05% -0.08%   -0.15% 0.12% 0.18% -0.10%
    CAD -0.14% 0.20% 0.06% 0.15%   0.28% 0.37% 0.05%
    AUD -0.40% -0.07% -0.21% -0.12% -0.28%   0.08% -0.17%
    NZD -0.49% -0.15% -0.29% -0.18% -0.37% -0.08%   -0.30%
    CHF -0.20% 0.14% 0.02% 0.10% -0.05% 0.17% 0.30%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as US Dollar rebounds

    • A corrective move in the EUR/USD pair from the five-month high is also driven by the US Dollar’s (USD) recovery ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 103.70 after revisiting a five-month low around 103.20 on Tuesday.
    • According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep borrowing rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second straight policy meeting in which the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged.
    • Traders have remained increasingly confident about the Fed maintaining a status quo on Wednesday as officials have been arguing in favor of maintaining a “wait and see” approach until they get clarity over the United States (US) economic outlook under the leadership of President Donald Trump.
    • Market participants expect that Donald Trump’s tariff policies could result in a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the near term as the impact of higher import duties will be borne by US importers who will pass on the impact to consumers.
    • Apart from the interest rate decision, investors will also focus on the Fed’s dot plot, which shows policymakers’ collective forecast for the interest rate outlook in the medium and longer term. In the December meeting, Fed officials projected two interest rate cuts in 2025.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD retreats from 1.0950

    EUR/USD struggles to extend its upside above 1.0950. However, the long-term outlook of the major currency pair remains firm as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0660.

    The pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 on March 5. 

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles near 70.00, suggesting that a strong bullish momentum is intact.

    Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.

     



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  • Forex Today: The BoJ and the Fed are expected to keep rates unchanged

    Forex Today: The BoJ and the Fed are expected to keep rates unchanged



    The Greenback remained under heavy pressure, retreating for the third day in a row and revisiting the area of multi-month troughs amid rising prudence ahead of the FOMC event on Wednesday, tariffs fears and geopolitical jitters.



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  • EUR/USD surges as Trump tariffs fuel US stagflation fears

    EUR/USD gains as US Dollar declines, Fed’s policy takes centre stage


    • EUR/USD rises to near 1.0900 to start the week as investors await the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
    • The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady as the focus shifts to the dot plot and Powell’s comments.
    • Greens’ signal to German debt restructuring deal and optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace could strengthen the Euro.

    EUR/USD moves higher due to significant weakness in the US Dollar (USD). The Euro (EUR) also underperforms despite German leaders, including Franziska Brantner-led-Greens, agreed to set up a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and dramatic changes in the borrowing rules or stretch in the so-called ‘debt brake’, which would be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday.

    Market participants expect the decision of German leaders to boost defense spending through a historic change in the debt brake will prompt economic growth. Ahead of the German leaders meeting on the debt deal, a March 10-14 Reuters poll showed that economists had revised their economic projections for the Eurozone on the optimism over debt reforms to 1.3% for 2026 from 1.2% anticipated a month ago.

    A historic German debt restructuring plan has also increased Eurozone inflation expectations. This scenario is contrary to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) current monetary expansion stance. On Friday, ECB policymaker and Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann supported keeping interest rates steady in the April policy meeting. Holzmann’s endorsement for a pause in the policy-easing cycle was backed by the assumption that US President Trump’s tariffs and Germany’s defense spending have stemmed risks of a resurge in inflationary pressures.

    Meanwhile, increased hopes of a Russia-Ukraine truce could strengthen the Euro’s appeal. Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss peace in Ukraine. Last week, Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire deal after discussions with US leaders in Saudi Arabia.

    In the near term, the major risk for the Euro is a potential US-European Union (EU) tariff war. On Thursday, President Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol after the EU proposed retaliatory tariffs on the US against a 25% blanket levy on steel and aluminum imported by the US. During European trading hours on Monday, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said, “Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.”

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.25% -0.22% -0.15% -0.23% -0.30% -0.69% -0.24%
    EUR 0.25%   -0.09% -0.31% 0.03% -0.19% -0.47% -0.01%
    GBP 0.22% 0.09%   0.10% -0.10% -0.12% -0.38% 0.00%
    JPY 0.15% 0.31% -0.10%   -0.08% -0.37% -0.50% -0.22%
    CAD 0.23% -0.03% 0.10% 0.08%   -0.28% -0.46% -0.55%
    AUD 0.30% 0.19% 0.12% 0.37% 0.28%   -0.23% 0.20%
    NZD 0.69% 0.47% 0.38% 0.50% 0.46% 0.23%   0.44%
    CHF 0.24% 0.01% -0.01% 0.22% 0.55% -0.20% -0.44%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD gains at US Dollar’s expense

    • EUR/USD jumps higher to near 1.0900 in European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) declines with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, falls to near 103.50.
    • The Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Therefore, the US Dollar’s (USD) outlook will be guided by the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where officials see interest rates heading in the near and longer term, as well as the growth, employment, and inflation outlook in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). In the December meeting, Fed policymakers anticipated two interest rate cuts this year.
    • Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the US economic outlook in the press conference following the monetary policy decision. A slew of US officials, including President Donald Trump, have stated that tariff policies could lead to some economic shocks in the near term. On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with NBC News, “I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable, and could there be an adjustment,” adding that the country needed to be weaned off of “massive government spending.”  His comments came after the interviewer asked whether Trump’s agenda could lead the economy to a recession.
    • Last week, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that policies by the President are the most important thing America has ever had, and “they worth it” after being asked whether it would be worth executing Trump’s policies even if they led to a recession.
    • Market participants worry that Trump’s tariff policies could be inflationary and batter households’ consumption. Such a scenario bodes poorly for the US Dollar.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD moves higher to near 1.0900

    EUR/USD rises to near 1.0900 on Monday. The long-term outlook of the major currency pair remains firm as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0655.

    The pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 last week. 

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles near 70.00, suggesting the strong bullish momentum is intact.

    Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key barrier for the Euro bulls.

     



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