Macro investors are struggling to find good trades ahead of the July 9 deadline for the Trump administration’s 90-day tariff pause, choosing instead to focus on the ‘day-to-day’.
Traders are having to navigate multiple discrete risk events, such as central bank, G7 and Nato meetings, before the tariff pause ends, and are unsure whether the deadline will move again.
“Both of those things make it difficult to put on trades right now,” says Jonathan Cohn, head of US rates strategy at Nomura. “Trying
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Barclays applies tech to predictions, while HSBC and ING look at pricing accuracy
Bank foreign exchange market-makers are increasingly using machine learning and artificial intelligence technology to improve their pricing predictions and sharpen levels shown to clients.
Non-bank market-makers have long achieved strong revenues in FX from their ability to use technology to predict where rates will go next. This allows them to adjust their hedging or inventory holdings to benefit from expected moves in spot, on top of any bid/offer they earn from the trade.
But banks are now
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In April, after the markets chaos that followed ‘Liberation Day’, Mads Gosvig, who heads asset allocation at the UK’s Railpen pension fund, asked his team to assess the case for an emerging markets premium on US assets.
Gosvig’s intention was to provoke discussion, he says. But the task reflected a genuine disquiet, matched at other pension and sovereign wealth funds, about the behaviour of US investments.
Asset owners are asking whether they should call time on so-called US exceptionalism – the
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Deutsche Bank is shifting gears on its proprietary foreign exchange trading platform, offering access to certain workflow elements via third-party platforms – as clients continue to migrate towards these venues.
For years, banks have tried to divert FX traffic from the multi-dealer platforms by offering value-added services. But their efforts have not slowed down the travel of flows onto MDPs.
According to a report from Greenwich Associates in November last year, a third of buy-side respondents
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The deal contingent (DC) hedge market has been making a comeback, after President Trump’s chaotic tariff policies in April led to a sharp dropoff in public merger deal activity amid the widespread economic uncertainty.
“The tariff discussions and news flow saw a lot of timelines pushed out, but I feel deals are coming back in now, and we’re getting quite a lot of inbound requests of substantial size,” says Edmund Carroll, head of FX, rates and commodities corporate client solutions at UBS.
The
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It takes a market-wide crisis to know how stable the underlying pipework is that supports it. In the $7.5 trillion foreign exchange market, the measure of its stability is liquidity.
This was put to the test last month, as intraday volatility triggered by president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2 resulted in an explosion in trading volumes, a widening of bid-offer spreads, and extremely challenging liquidity conditions.
So, how much did this event expose the vulnerabilities in the
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Standard Chartered has hired John Newman as global head of rates and foreign exchange trading.
Newman joined the UK bank last month and is based in London, according to his LinkedIn profile.
A spokesperson for Standard Chartered confirmed the appointment.
Newman joins after 24 years at UBS, where he held several global trading roles. Most recently, he was made interim global head of fixed income trading following the departure of Mark Tinworth in September.
Tinworth moved to RBC Capital Markets as
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Having a stable of high-end trading platforms can be a blessing – and a curse. And while experience and familiarity are valuable, legacy systems eventually start to creak and crawl.
Around 2019, State Street realised it had a problem as it looked to build upon and expand its suite of foreign exchange and cash solutions. Through acquisitions and in-house builds, the bank amassed several popular, but ageing, platforms. There’s FX Connect, which turns 30 this year. Fund Connect will celebrate its
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When the New Taiwan dollar (TWD) surged unexpectedly on May 2 and 5, the country’s giant life insurers were immediately blamed for the move, given their huge size relative to the Taiwanese domestic market.
Market participants, however, have mixed views on how active the insurers really were – but they agree the moves were exacerbated by hedge funds betting on the currency’s rise after the central bank decided not to intervene aggressively to halt its wild appreciation.
“This has been driven by
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MUFG is bolstering its FX franchise amid a rising interest rate environment that has led investors to renew their attention in the Japanese FX market. MUFG’s domestic success and growing onshore presence have strengthened the firm’s ambition to become an Asia powerhouse in FX
David Wright, MUFG
After decades of ultra-low interest rates, the Bank of Japan’s determination to gradually raise rates has caught the attention of global market participants. Combined with the recent volatility of the yen, Japan’s new interest rate environment has led international actors to seek the services of such firms as MUFG, which can provide access to broad and deep liquidity in the Japanese market as well as low-latency trading, efficient execution and extensive knowledge of the specificities of the Japanese market.
MUFG is the prime FX liquidity provider in Japan. With a banking presence in the country for more than 360 years, the firm has established deep and profound relationships with a wide array of FX market participants. Like its international counterparts, this domestic client base has become more sophisticated. As a result, the bank has invested heavily in its FX franchise to provide corporates, financial institutions, insurance firms and banks with the means to compete in Japan, Asia and worldwide.
MUFG has broadened the scope of bespoke solutions available to domestic and international clients to cater to these evolving needs. The bank has diversified the number of accessible trading channels, with a particular focus on electronic trading, and has invested heavily in this area to help clients trade more efficiently.
“We’ve made great efforts to invest in and extend our technology capabilities that we’ve developed for our core clients, domestic and global corporates,” says David Wright, global head of FX trading and distribution at MUFG. “Straight-through processing of FX transactions is becoming more prevalent in Japan, and this goes hand in hand with MUFG’s push for digital solutions in transaction banking and payments.”
As the activities of Japanese FX market participants have become more mature, their centre of attention has also become more global. To this end, MUFG is actively broadening its outreach across the world, and in Asia in particular. With an onshore presence in 18 markets across the Asia-Pacific region, MUFG is deeply entrenched and determined to use its strong base in Japan to intensify its operations.
“With the recent unprecedented volatility experienced in global markets, we work with our clients to assure access and liquidity to global markets, including FX. As the largest financial institution in Japan, MUFG is the go-to FX bank in the country,” says Wright. “While we appreciate and continue to focus on our clients in Japan, we want to leverage our position to grow globally. We are present in more than 40 markets worldwide, but focused on expanding our footprint in Asia. Our goal is to become an Asia powerhouse, providing exceptional service to clients in the region and global clients accessing markets in Asia.”
To achieve this, MUFG has expanded its e-FX capabilities in line with the expectations of clients at home and abroad. A key component of MUFG’s strategy to extend the reach and scope of its e-FX franchise is its partnership with Morgan Stanley. In 2008, the two banks formed a strategic alliance to collaborate within global investment banking and, in 2010, established their Japanese securities joint ventures. In 2024, the partnership was further enhanced to include the FX business.
“The rapid electronification of FX trading and the introduction of global financial regulations in recent years have brought about operational and technological challenges that required substantial investment in FX trading technologies,” explains Wright. “Given the productive collaboration between MUFG and Morgan Stanley, both banks decided to enhance the scale of that collaboration to leverage the complementary strengths of each party. MUFG’s immense balance sheet and solid infrastructure in Japan, together with the strength of Morgan Stanley, provide MUFG with a truly global capability.”
As part of the initiative, dubbed Alliance 2.0, the collaboration makes it possible for MUFG to leverage Morgan Stanley’s market-leading FX technology and infrastructure to better service MUFG’s clients through enhanced risk management and execution efficiency.
MUFG was named FX house of the year Japan at the FX Markets Asia Awards 2025.
When the economist and geopolitical strategist Brunello Rosa was finalising drafts of his book Smart Money last year, he noted presciently that critical events might unfold before its publication in paperback.
The book, written with co-author Casey Larsen, envisages a new cold war unfolding between the US and China in which “digital de-dollarisation” plays a central role.
The paperback is due out in June. In the meantime, the fallout from the Trump administration’s tariff announcements in early
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US president Donald Trump’s whipsawing tariff policies created a perfect storm for foreign exchange options dealers, as hedge funds rushed to short US dollar positions while systematic volatility sellers and large macro funds sat on the sidelines.
The ensuing volatility left traders wondering if they had slipped into the wrong desks, or even another dimension.
“The scale of the moves for EUR/USD on April 11 made it more volatile than USD/TRY on the day,” says Saurabh Tandon, global head of FX
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FX Markets is delighted to announce the winners of the Asia Awards 2025.
The eighth edition of the FX Markets Asia Awards recognises and showcases the best banks, trading platforms and technology providers in the Asia-Pacific region (Apac).
The awards recognise the firms that have proven themselves in FX trading, whether that’s as a liquidity provider in local markets, prime brokerage and overlay provider; algo builder; trading venue; software provider; or data vendor.
This year’s awards spanned more than 28 categories and attracted 92 entrants from a wide range of participants, with the winners being announced in Singapore.
Among the highlights, HSBC picked up nine wins, including four in the liquidity provider local market categories – China, Hong Kong, India and Singapore – as well as overall FX house of the year Apac. Deutsche Bank landed two awards for South Korea and overall FX house of the year ASEAN, while UBS also secured two for the best Asia FX spot house and best FX single-dealer platform for Asian currencies.
Bank of America scooped its first Asia award for best Asia FX options house, as did Credit Agricole for best Asia NDF house and Wells Fargo for FX house of the year G10 (Asian hours). ANZ, MUFG, OCBC Bank and State Street TradeNexus were also awarded.
HSBC also secured best FX overlay manager for Asia clients, best Asia FX forwards and swaps house, best LP for Asia bank clients and best FX algo provider for Asia currencies. NatWest won best FX prime broker for Asia and, in a new category for 2025, State Street Currency Management won best FX hedging initiative.
In the venue and technology categories, Bloomberg, SGXFX, 360T, smartTrade Technologies and oneZero were also winners.
Choosing winners is never an easy task. Entrants submitted written pitches and the final decisions were made by a panel of judges, which included FX Markets’ editors, weighing a number of factors including strategic clarity, growth, risk management discipline, innovation and adaptability, thought leadership, as well as a commitment to investing in the business. If decisions were tight, client feedback helped settle the issue. Judges were not allowed to contribute to categories where there may be conflicts of interest.
Congratulations to our winners and thank you to all who entered this year’s awards.
FX house of the year Australia ANZ
FX house of the year China HSBC
FX house of the year Hong Kong HSBC
FX house of the year India HSBC
FX house of the year Japan MUFG
FX house of the year Singapore HSBC
FX house of the year South Korea Deutsche Bank
FX house of the year G10 (Asia hours) Wells Fargo
Overall FX house of the year ASEAN (Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) Deutsche Bank
Overall FX house of the year Asia-Pacific HSBC
Best Asia FX spot house UBS
Best Asia FX forwards and swaps house HSBC
Best Asia FX options house Bank of America
Best Asia non-deliverable forwards house Crédit Agricole CIB
Best LP for Asia Regional and private banks HSBC
Best Asia multi-dealer FX trading venue Bloomberg
Best Asia FX derivatives exchange SGXFX
Best Asia FX trading venue for retail clients OCBC Bank
Best FX algo provider for Asia currencies HSBC
Best single-dealer platform for Asia currencies UBS
Best FX prime broker for Asia NatWest
Best FX hedging initiative State Street Currency Management
Best FX overlay manager for Asia clients HSBC
Best FXEMS for Asia currencies 360t
Best FX liquidity aggregator for Asia currencies smartTrade Technologies
Best regional connectivity, hosting and colocation service smartTrade Technologies
Best FX market data and analytics provider for Asia currencies oneZero
BestX and Tradefeedr, the two main third-party transaction cost analysis (TCA) providers, have launched tools that enable buy-side firms to standardise and automate counterparty selection for cash foreign exchange trades, ahead of request-for-quote or algorithmic execution.
The launches are part of a wider push by asset managers to integrate TCA into their trading workflows to help meet best execution rules, which require asset managers to justify how they select their counterparties and their
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Indonesia’s new central counterparty (CCP) for foreign exchange derivatives is to seek recognition from regulators in three overseas jurisdictions this year, amid a flurry of membership enquiries from foreign banks.
“[Foreign banks] have shown their enthusiasm [and] willingness to join,” said Abdul Hadie, head of strategic planning and enterprise risk management at Indonesia Clearing and Guarantee Corporation (IDClear).
“The major concern is when we will apply for recognition in their home
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US corporates are having a hard time responding to increased currency volatility as internal restrictions around hedging programmes make it difficult for them to react quickly to the shifting strength of the dollar.
Heightened foreign exchange volatility, driven in particular by President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff announcements, has seen the dollar weaken and made it difficult for corporates to forecast future cashflows from foreign earnings or imports. Treasurers, however, lack the
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The move to one-day settlement for US equities, known as T+1, may be contributing to record liquidity shortfalls at the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), which clears all US-listed stock trades.
NSCC, a subsidiary of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), reported a liquidity shortfall of $7.1 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024, which it blamed on year-end “index rebalancing”.
The shortfall represents the gap between the qualifying liquid resources (QLRs) –
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