Tag: GDP

  • Japan’s GDP arrives at 0% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs -0.2% expected

    Japan’s GDP arrives at 0% QoQ in Q1 2025 vs -0.2% expected


    The Japanese economy showed no growth over the quarter in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025, the final reading released by Japan’s Cabinet Office showed on Monday. This reading came in above the market expectation and the previous estimate of -0.2%.

    The Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell at an annual rate of 0.2% in Q1, compared to -0.7% in the previous reading.

    Market reaction to Japan’s GDP data

    At the press time, USD/JPY trades 0.13% lower on the day at 144.68.

    GDP FAQs

    A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022.
    Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

    A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency.
    When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

    When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.



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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1


    South Korea’s gross domestic product contracted a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2025, the Bank of Korea said on Thursday.

    That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous three months.

    On an annualized basis, GDP was flat – beating forecasts for a drop of 0.1 percent and down from 1.2 percent in the three months prior.

    Real gross national income (real GNI) increased by 0.1 percent on quarter in the first quarter.

    On the production side, manufacturing decreased by 0.6 percent, mainly due to decreases in chemicals & chemical products and machinery & equipment.

    Construction decreased by 0.4 percent, led by a decrease in building construction. Services decreased by 0.2 percent, as transportation & storage and real estate decreased while finance & insurance and information & communication increased.

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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    Australia GDP Adds 0.2% On Quarter In Q1


    Australia’s gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2025, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

    That missed expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent and was down from 0.6 percent in the three months prior.

    On an annualized basis, GDP was up 1.3 percent – again shy of forecasts for an expansion of 1.5 percent and steady from the previous quarter.

    GDP capex was up 0.1 percent on quarter, slowing from 0.7 percent in the previous three months, while final consumption also slowed, to 0.2 percent on quarter from 0.5 percent.

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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    Belgium GDP Grows As Estimated, Inflation Eases


    Belgium’s economy expanded as initially estimated in the first quarter of 2025, the latest data from the National Bank of Belgium showed on Wednesday.

    Separate official data showed that consumer price inflation eased in May to the lowest level in nearly one-and-a-half years.

    Gross domestic product grew seasonally and calendar-adjusted 0.4 percent in the first quarter, slightly faster than the previous quarter’s 0.2 percent increase. The economy has been expanding since the fourth quarter of 2023. That was in line with flash data published earlir.

    Data showed that value added was up by 0.9 percent in construction, and the services sector advanced by 0.4 percent. The industrial sector logged a marginal growth of 0.1 percent.

    On the expenditure side, private consumption expenditure grew 0.6 percent, and total gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.6 percent.

    Meanwhile, general government consumption decreased 0.1 percent. Both exports and imports fell by 0.4 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.

    Compared to the same quarter last year, GDP growth held steady at 1.1 percent in the March quarter, as estimated.

    Consumer price inflation in Belgium eased further to a 16-month low of 2.01 percent in May from 2.55 percent in April, figures from the statistical office showed.

    Excluding unprocessed food and energy products, core inflation slowed to 2.59 percent from 2.82 percent. Inflation based on the health index dropped to 2.37 percent from 3.0 percent.

    Natural gas, electricity, airline tickets, holiday villages, and campsites had a downward effect on inflation, the agency said.

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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    Singapore GDP Climbs 3.9% On Year In Q1


    Singapore’s gross domestic product expanded 3.9 percent on year in the first quarter of 2025, the Ministry of Trade and Industry said on Thursday.

    That beat expectations for a gain of 3.8 percent after rising 5.0 percent in the three months prior.

    On a seasonally adjusted quarterly basis, GDP contracted 0.6 percent – but that also beat forecasts for a decline of 0.8 percent following the 0.5 percent increase in the previous three months.

    On a year-on-year basis, GDP growth in the first quarter was largely driven by the wholesale trade, manufacturing and finance & insurance sectors. In particular, growth in the manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors were likely to have been partly supported by front-loading activities ahead of anticipated US tariff hikes. By contrast, the accommodation and food & beverage services sectors contracted, with the former weighed down by the weak performance of the higher value-added hotel segments.

    Upon the release of the data, the MTI maintained Singapore’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 for 0 to 2 percent.

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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    Japan GDP Slips 0.2% On Quarter In Q1


    The Japanese economy contracted a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2025, the Cabinet Office said on Friday – missing expectations for a decline of 0.1 percent following the 0.6 percent gain in the three months prior.

    On an annualized basis, GDP was down 0.7 percent – again missing forecasts for a drop of 0.2 percent following the upwardly revised 2.4 percent increase in the previous quarter (originally 2.2 percent).

    Capital expenditure was up 1.4 percent on quarter, exceeding expectations for an increase of 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the preceding three months.

    External demand was down 0.8 percent on quarter, while private consumption was flat.

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  • Retraces from four-month high above 196.50

    Retraces from four-month high above 196.50


    • GBP/JPY retraces to near 194.45 from the four-month high of 196.50 as the Japanese Yen outperforms.
    • BoJ’s Uchida expressed confidence in more interest rate hikes ahead.
    • The UK economy is expected to have grown strongly by 0.6% in the January-March period.

    The GBP/JPY pair corrects to near 194.45 during European trading hours on Wednesday from its four-month high of 196.40 posted earlier in the day. The cross retraces sharply as the Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens across the board after comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida indicated that hopes of further interest rate hikes are still alive despite global economic uncertainty in the wake of tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump.

    Japanese Yen PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.32% -0.21% -0.98% -0.00% 0.04% -0.12% -0.41%
    EUR 0.32% 0.12% -0.66% 0.32% 0.36% 0.18% -0.09%
    GBP 0.21% -0.12% -0.80% 0.20% 0.24% 0.06% -0.21%
    JPY 0.98% 0.66% 0.80% 0.98% 1.02% 0.84% 0.56%
    CAD 0.00% -0.32% -0.20% -0.98% 0.04% -0.12% -0.40%
    AUD -0.04% -0.36% -0.24% -1.02% -0.04% -0.16% -0.45%
    NZD 0.12% -0.18% -0.06% -0.84% 0.12% 0.16% -0.28%
    CHF 0.41% 0.09% 0.21% -0.56% 0.40% 0.45% 0.28%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

    Japan’s underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations are likely to temporarily stagnate. But even during that period, wages are expected to continue rising as Japan’s job market is very tight, Uchida said on Tuesday, Reuters reported.

    Meanwhile, the Pound Sterling (GBP) trades calmly ahead of the flash United Kingdom (UK) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. The UK economy is estimated to have expanded at a robust pace of 0.6%, compared to 0.1% growth seen in the last quarter of 2024.

    On the monetary policy front, the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to reduce interest rates further as the UK labor market has cooled down. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the ILO Unemployment Rate accelerated to 4.5%, as expected, from 4.4% in the three months ending February. In the same period, the economy added 112K fresh workers, significantly lower than the prior release of 206K.

    GBP/JPY struggles to extend its upside above the horizontal resistance plotted from the March 27 high of 196.00. However, the outlook of the cross is still bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher, which trades around 192.32.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retraces to near 60.00 from 67.00. A fresh bullish momentum would emerge if the RSI holds above the 60.00 level.

    The pair could extend its upside to near the January 7 high of 198.26 and the psychological level of 200.00 after breaking above the four-month high of 196.40.

    On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the May 6 low of 190.33 will expose it to the March 11 low of 188.80, followed by the February 7 low of 187.00.

    GBP/JPY daily chart

     

     

    Economic Indicator

    Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)

    The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.


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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    Italian GDP Grows 0.3% In Q1


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  • South Korea GDP Contracts 0.2% In Q1

    South Korea GDP Contracts 0.2% In Q1


    South Korea’s gross domestic product was down a seasonally adjusted 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2025, the Bank of Korea said in Thursday’s preliminary reading.

    That missed forecasts for an increase of 0.1 percent, which would have been unchanged from the three months prior.

    On an annualized basis, GDP slipped 0.1 percent – again missing expectations for a gain of 0.2 percent and down from 1.2 percent in the previous three months.

    Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased by 0.4 percent compared to the previous quarter.

    On the expenditure side, private consumption fell by 0.1 percent mainly due to a decrease in expenditures on service consumption (e.g., entertainment culture and healthcare services).

    Government consumption fell by 0.1 percent as expenditures on health care benefits decreased. Construction investment shrank by 3.2 percent as building construction decreased.

    Facilities investment shrank by 2.1 percent, led by a decrease in machinery (e.g., semiconductor manufacturing equipment).
    Exports shrank by 1.1 percent as exports of chemicals and machinery and equipment decreased. Imports shrank by 2.0 percent, as imports of energy items like crude oil and natural gas decreased.

    On the production side, agriculture, forestry and fishing grew by 3.2 percent, mainly due to an increase in fishing yield.

    Manufacturing shrank by 0.8 percent, centered on decreases in chemicals and chemical products and machinery and equipment.

    Electricity, gas and water supply grew by 7.9 percent, largely as a result of an increase in gas, steam and air conditioning supply.

    Construction shrank by 1.5 percent, owing to a decrease in building construction.

    Services remained unchanged, led by increases in finance and insurance and information and communication, and offset by decreases in transportation and storage, wholesale and retail trade and accommodation and food services.

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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    China GDP Expands More Than Expected


    China’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter despite trade tariff disputes, official data revealed on Wednesday.

    Gross domestic product grew 5.4 percent year-on-year, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. This was better than economists’ forecast of 5.1 percent and it was unchanged from the previous quarter.

    Quarter-on-quarter, the economy grew 1.2 percent in the first quarter but weaker than the expected growth of 1.4 percent.

    In March, retail sales moved up 5.9 percent from the previous year. Economists had forecast sales to climb 4.2 percent.

    Industrial production advanced 7.7 percent from a year ago compared to forecast of 5.7 percent.

    Fixed asset investment increased 4.2 percent in the January to March period. Economists had forecast an expansion of 4.1 percent.

    The urban jobless rate dropped to 5.2 percent in March from 5.4 percent in February. The rate was also below economists’ forecast of 5.3 percent.

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  • Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)



    Japan Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) above expectations (2.8%) in 4Q: Actual (2.9%)



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  • Australia GDP Growth Tops Expectations

    Australia GDP Growth Tops Expectations


    Australia’s economy logged a faster-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter underpinned by exports and government spending, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed on Wednesday.

    Gross domestic product climbed 0.6 percent sequentially in the December quarter, following a 0.3 percent rise in the September quarter. GDP was expected to grow 0.5 percent in the fourth quarter.

    On a yearly basis, economic growth accelerated to 1.3 percent from 0.8 percent in the third quarter. This was also above forecast of 1.2 percent.

    “Modest growth was seen broadly across the economy this quarter,” Katherine Keenan, ABS head of national accounts, said.

    “Both public and private spending contributed to the growth, supported by a rise in exports of goods and services,” Keenan added.

    Household spending expanded 0.4 percent sequentially. Spending on essentials such as rent and health continued to be one of the biggest contributors to spending growth. At the same time, growth in government spending moderated to 0.7 percent.

    Private investment rose 0.3 percent but private investment in dwellings fell 0.4 percent. Public investment showed a moderate growth of 1.8 percent.

    Net trade contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth as exports rose 0.7 percent, which was partly offset by a 0.1 percent rise in imports.

    Capital Economics economist Abhijit Surya said as long as inflation continues to moderate, the Reserve Bank of Australia should be in a position to ease policy settings just a bit further.

    However, the case for substantial policy loosening remains weak, the economist noted.

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  • South Korea GDP Shrinks 0.2% In Q1

    Japan GDP Jumps 0.7% In Q4


    Japan’s gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, the Cabinet Office said in Monday’s preliminary report.

    That beat forecasts for an increase of 0.3 percent and was up from the upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in the previous three months (originally 0.3 percent).

    On an annualized basis, GDP was up 2.8 percent – again exceeding expectations for an increase of 2.0 percent and up from the upwardly revised 1.7 percent gain in the three months prior (originally 1.2 percent).

    Capital expenditure was up 0.5 percent on quarter after slipping 0.1 percent in Q3, while external demand added 0.7 percent after slipping 0.1 percent in the previous quarter.

    The GDP price index was up 2.8 percent on year, in line with estimates and up from 2.4 percent in the third quarter.

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  • Malaysia GDP Expands More Than Estimated

    Malaysia GDP Expands More Than Estimated


    Malaysia’s economy expanded more than previously estimated in the fourth quarter on household spending and investment, official data showed on Friday.

    Gross domestic product expanded 5.0 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter. This was revised up from the prior estimate of 4.8 percent and follows 5.4 percent growth registered in the third quarter.

    Private final consumption expenditure and gross fixed capital formation were the main catalysts on the demand side.

    Private consumption climbed at a slightly faster pace of 4.9 percent, while the growth in government spending eased to 3.3 percent from 4.9 percent.

    At the same time, gross fixed capital formation surged 11.7 percent but slower than the 15.3 percent increase seen a quarter ago.

    Exports increased 8.5 percent after an 11.8 percent gain. Likewise, the increase in imports slowed to 5.7 percent from 13.5 percent.

    On the production side, the services, manufacturing and construction sectors continued to drive overall growth on the supply side. Services grew 6.2 percent and manufacturing advanced 3.2 percent. Construction showed a double-digit growth of 18.3 percent.

    By contrast, mining and quarrying and agriculture shrank 2.8 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively.

    On a quarterly basis, GDP contracted 1.1 percent, in contrast to the 1.9 percent growth seen in the third quarter, data showed.

    Overall, the economy grew at 5.1 percent, in line with the flash estimate, and faster than the 3.6 percent expansion seen in 2023. The improvement was driven by the continued expansion in domestic demand and a rebound in exports.

    Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Abdul Rasheed Ghaffour said, “Going forward, while the global environment could be challenging, growth of the Malaysian economy will be driven by robust expansion in investment activity, resilient household spending and expansion in exports supported by Malaysia’s strong economic fundamentals.”

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  • Pound Sterling slides as UK economy barely grow in November

    Pound Sterling slides as UK economy barely grow in November


    • The Pound Sterling drops as the UK GDP rose at a slower-than-expected pace, and factory activity contracted in November.
    • Traders have raised BoE dovish bets for February’s policy meeting.
    • Investors await the US weekly jobless claims and Retail Sales data for December on Thursday.

    The Pound Sterling faces selling pressure in Thursday’s North American session after the release of the United Kingdom’s (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for November. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that the economy returned to growth after contracting in October. However, the growth rate was slower than projected. The economy rose by 0.1% after declining at a similar pace in October. Economists expected the economy to have expanded by 0.2%.

    Both Manufacturing and Industrial Production data contracted in November on a monthly as well as annual basis. Month-on-month, Industrial and Manufacturing Production contracted by 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively. The pace of decline was slower than that seen in October. Economists expected Industrial Production to have grown by 0.1%, while Manufacturing Production was estimated to have remained flat.

    Signs of continuous weakness in the UK factory activity suggest that producers are not fully utilizing their operating capacity on the assumption that the already weak demand environment will worsen further after United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump slaps hefty import tariffs globally once he takes office.

    However, growing expectations that the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy easing will be less gradual this year would offer some relief for factory owners. Traders have raised BoE dovish bets after the release of the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December on Wednesday, which showed signs of cooling price pressures.

    Traders see a roughly 84% chance that the BoE will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.5% at its policy meeting in February. For the entire year, economists expect four interest rate cuts, according to a Reuters poll.

    Cooling price pressures have offered some relief to Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves as they led to a pause in the rally in yields on UK gilts. 30-year UK gilt yields have corrected to 5.28% from their more-than-26-year high of 5.47%. The British currency has faced a significant decline in the last few trading days as soaring UK gilt yields due to uncertainty over the economic outlook.

    British Pound PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of the British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. The British Pound was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

      GBP EUR USD JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    GBP   -0.28% -0.29% -0.68% 0.00% -0.10% -0.07% -0.48%
    EUR 0.28%   -0.01% -0.40% 0.30% 0.19% 0.22% -0.20%
    USD 0.29% 0.00%   -0.41% 0.30% 0.19% 0.22% -0.20%
    JPY 0.68% 0.40% 0.41%   0.71% 0.58% 0.57% 0.20%
    CAD -0.01% -0.30% -0.30% -0.71%   -0.10% -0.08% -0.49%
    AUD 0.10% -0.19% -0.19% -0.58% 0.10%   0.03% -0.39%
    NZD 0.07% -0.22% -0.22% -0.57% 0.08% -0.03%   -0.41%
    CHF 0.48% 0.20% 0.20% -0.20% 0.49% 0.39% 0.41%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

    Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling weakens against USD 

    • The Pound Sterling remains under pressure slightly below 1.2200 against the US Dollar (USD) in North American trading hours. The GBP/USD pair falls due to weak UK data. While, the US Dollar trades higher, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) wobbling around 109.30, but is likely to face selling pressure as the US Initial Jobless Claims data for the week ending January 10 remains higher-than-expected and the Retail Sales data rose moderately in December.
    • The US Department of Labor reported individuals claiming jobless benefits for the first time were 217K, higher than estimates of 210K and the prior release of 203K. Month-on-month Retail Sales data, a key measure of consumer spending, rose by 0.4%, slower than estimates of 0.6% and the former release of 0.8%. However, the Retail Sales rose at a faster pace of 3.9% than the prior reading of 3.8%.
    • Going forward, the US Dollar will be influenced by market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likely interest rate action for the entire year.
    • Market participants expect the Fed’s policy-easing path to be less gradual than anticipated earlier. Expectations for the Fed policy outlook were impacted after the release of the United States (US) inflation data for December on Wednesday, which showed that the progress in the disinflation trend has not stalled yet.
    • According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders expect the Fed to deliver more than one interest rate cut this year and anticipate the first reduction in June. Before December’s inflation data, traders were anticipating only one interest rate reduction in September.

    Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling stays below 1.2200

    The Pound Sterling trades near the key level of 1.2200 against the US Dollar on Thursday. The outlook for the Cable remains weak as the vertically declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2394 suggests that the near-term trend is extremely bearish.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds slightly after diving below 30.00 as the momentum oscillator turned oversold. However, the broader scenario remains bearish until it recovers inside the 20.00-40.00 range.

    Looking down, the pair is expected to find support near the October 2023 low of 1.2050. On the upside, the 20-day EMA will act as key resistance.

    Economic Indicator

    Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

    Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

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