Tag: New Zealand

  • Markets Catch a Breath, But US-China Showdown Keep Rebound on Thin Ice

    Markets Catch a Breath, But US-China Showdown Keep Rebound on Thin Ice


    Global markets are having a precious moment of calm, with risk sentiment stabilizing across Asia and Europe, and US futures pointing to a higher open. The recent wave of aggressive selling appears to have peaked—at least temporarily—offering traders a breather from the huge volatility experienced since last week. However, this rebound should not be mistaken for a true reversal in sentiment. Markets remain highly sensitive, and downside risks persist should trade tensions escalate further.

    The immediate flashpoint lies in US-China relations. US President Donald Trump has warned that if China does not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs by Wednesday, the US will impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods. Should that happen, the effective tariff rate on Chinese imports would soar beyond 100%, marking a significant and historic escalation in global trade conflict.

    Meanwhile, Chinese authorities are making visible efforts to bolster domestic market confidence. Sovereign wealth fund Central Huijin Investment, often dubbed the “national team,” confirmed ETF purchases and pledged further action to support equity prices. This has been echoed by major state-owned enterprises and listed firms announcing share buybacks. In tandem, China’s financial regulator is preparing to lift caps on insurance fund investments in equities to provide further support to the capital markets.

    Beyond equity stabilization, currency markets are on alert. The Chinese Yuan is nearing record lows against Dollar, with market speculations over whether Beijing will allow it to depreciate as a countermeasure to tariffs. Should the PBoC relax its grip and let the Yuan slide further, it could trigger fresh turbulence in the regional markets that ripples globally.

    From a pure technical perspective, USD/CNH’s correction from 7.3964 should have completed at 7.2153 already. Firm break of 7.3964/3745 key resistance zone will quickly push USD/CNH to 61.8% projection of 6.9709 to 7.3694 from 7.2153 at 7.4616.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 2.54%. DAX is up 2.57%. CAC is up 2.34%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.029 at 4.636. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.056 at 2.667. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 6.03%. Hong Kong HSI rose 1.51%. China Shanghai SSE rose 1.58%. Singapore Strait Times fell -2.01%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.163 to 1.279.

    ECB’s de Guindos urges cool heads as Europe faces trade wake-up call

    ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos struck a cautiously hopeful tone on Europe’s ability to manage rising global trade tensions, suggesting that markets tend to overreact in the short term but eventually recalibrate.

    Speaking at an event in Spain, de Guindos noted that despite the sharp volatility triggered by the US tariff escalation, market liquidity remains intact.

    Despite the pressure, de Guindos said he was “relatively optimistic” about Europe’s ability to weather the storm, calling the situation a “wake-up call” to pursue greater economic and military autonomy.

    De Guindos stressed the importance of negotiating with the U.S. “with a cool head”.

    Separately, Greek ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras offered a more cautious view, warning that a renewed surge in inflation or rising inflation expectations could disrupt ECB’s path to monetary policy normalization.

    “Tariffs imposed on one country’s imports would affect other countries participating in the global chains, even if no countermeasures were imposed,” Stournaras added.

    Aussie Westpac consumer sentiment slumps post-tariff shock; RBA seen tilting toward May rate cut

    Australia’s Westpac Consumer Sentiment index plunged -6.0% in April, dropping from 95.9 to 90.1. The steep fall was notably skewed by the timing of the survey in relation to US announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2.

    Respondents surveyed before the announcement showed only a modest dip in sentiment to 93.9. Those surveyed after reported a sharp drop of nearly 10% to 86.6. .

    The sub-indices measuring sentiment towards the economy were particularly hard-hit, with the outlook for the next 12 months falling -5.7% to 90.5, and the 5-year outlook slipping back by -3.0%

    With RBA set to meet on May 19-20, Westpac believes the weakening external backdrop, coupled with softer inflation, will push RBA to deliver another 25 bps rate cut. RBA is likely to become “much more focused on downside risks to growth than lingering questions about inflation”.

    Australia NAB business confidence dips to -3 ahead of tariff impact

    Australia’s NAB Business Confidence index dipped slightly from -2 to -3 in March, remaining firmly in negative territory. Business Conditions, however, edged up from 3 to 4, a modest improvement that still leaves them slightly below average overall.

    Cost pressures remained broadly stable, with purchase costs rising 1.4% in quarterly equivalent terms and product price growth holding at 0.5%. Labour cost growth eased slightly.

    NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld noted that conditions continue to vary across industries, with the services sector faring best while manufacturing and retail remain under pressure.

    Importantly, this data predates the escalation of the global trade dispute, particularly the reciprocal tariff measures announced in early April. As Auld cautioned, these developments could “flow through to forward looking measures in the next survey.”

    RBNZ set to cut again, bearish momentum resumes in NZD/JPY

    RBNZ is widely expected to deliver another 25bps cut tomorrow, bringing the Official Cash Rate down to 3.50%. With the move largely priced in, traders will be focused on how the central bank interprets the rapidly evolving global environment.

    As the first major central bank to meet since the US launched the sweeping reciprocal tariffs, RBNZ’s tone and guidance will not only be key for New Zealand, but will also offer insights for the broader Asia-Pacific region.

    While there are speculative whispers about the possibility of a larger-than-expected rate cut to cushion the economy against the external shock, RBNZ will likely refrain from doing so just yet. The current level of uncertainty, both in terms of policy responses and economic impact, should see the central bank remain cautious, maintaining its easing bias without overcommitting.

    With another cut already projected in May, RBNZ is expected to stay on its path of gradual policy accommodation while waiting for more concrete data on trade disruption effects. The question of whether the RBNZ will eventually push OCR below 3.00% remains open. Much will depend on how the trade war unfolds, how consumer and business sentiment hold up, and the extent of the ripple effects across Asia’s open economies.

    Technically, NZD/JPY’s down trend from 99.01 (2024 high) resumed by breaking through 83.02 low last week. Whether this is a correction of the multi-year uptrend from the 2020 low of 59.49, or a full reversal, is yet to be determined.

    In either case, near term outlook will remain bearish as long as 87.35 resistance holds, in case of recovery. Next target is 100% projection of 92.45 to 83.14 from 87.35 at 78.04. Firm break there will target 138.2% projection at 74.48. This coincides with 61.8% retracement of 59.49 to 99.01 at 74.58.

    USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8480; (P) 0.8577; (R1) 0.8704; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral for the moment, and more consolidations would be seen above 0.8450. Upside of recovery should be limited below 0.8757 support turned resistance. On the downside, below 0.8450 will resume the fall from 0.9196 and target 100% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.8415.

    In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9196 at 0.8075.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    22:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence Q1 19% 16%
    23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Feb 2.32T 2.74T 1.94T 1.95T
    00:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Sentiment Apr -6.00% 4.00%
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Mar -3 -1 -2
    01:30 AUD NAB Business Conditions Mar 4 4
    05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Mar 45.1 45.3 45.6
    06:45 EUR France Trade Balance (EUR) Feb -7.9B -6.2B -6.5B
    10:00 USD NFIB Business Optimism Index Mar 97.4 101.3 100.7
    14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Mar 53.2 55.3

     



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  • Markets Crumble as Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs, Trade Storm Intensifies

    Markets Crumble as Trump Doubles Down on Tariffs, Trade Storm Intensifies


    The global stock market crash showed no sign of slowing today. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index returned from a holiday break and promptly plunged over -10% to catch up with last week’s global carnage. Meanwhile, Japan’s Nikkei suffered another dramatic drop of more than -2200 points, or -6.6%.

    Risk aversion remains the dominant theme as markets digest the full implications of the rapidly escalating trade war. Despite the equity bloodbath, currency markets were relatively calm. Most major pairs and crosses pulled back inside Friday’s ranges after brief spikes.

    Fueling the unease, US President Donald Trump showed no sign of backing away from his aggressive tariff agenda. Over the weekend, he defended the tariffs, likening them to “medicine to fix something” and insisted that countries wishing to avoid the duties must pay the US “a lot of money on a yearly basis.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that more than 50 countries have opened negotiations with Washington since last week’s announcement, suggesting Trump’s strategy is drawing some to the table.

    Indeed, some notable trade partners are quickly moving to avoid being caught in the crosshairs. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te offered to remove trade barriers and match US tariffs with zero duties, while also pledging increased Taiwanese investment in America. That follows Vietnam’s similar proposal last week, raising the possibility that some nations could strike bilateral deals that eliminate tariffs entirely.

    The next few days will be critical. Traders are watching closely to see if any of these bilateral talks bear fruit — specifically, whether they lead to a genuine dismantling of trade barriers. On the other hand, if the US uses these negotiations to extract unrelated concessions, trust may erode further, heightening fears of a full-blown trade conflict.

    The path taken by Taiwan and Vietnam could become a model or a dead-end, depending on how Washington responds. The situation remains extremely fluid as US customs began collecting the baseline 10% tariffs over the weekend, with higher country-specific rates kicking in Wednesday.

    Fed will also be back in the spotlight, with the March FOMC minutes, CPI data, and fresh commentary from policymakers due. Up until last week, Fed officials were signaling a cautious, wait-and-see approach on rate cuts. But the financial market rout has dramatically altered expectations, with Fed funds futures now pricing in nearly a 50% chance of a 25bps cut in May — up from just 14% a week ago.

    A soft CPI print or any hint of dovish pivot in tone from Fed could further fuel expectations of imminent easing—though it would also raise concern that Fed is bracing for deeper economic damage from the trade war

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -5.99%. Hong Kong HSI is down -10.50%. China Shanghai SSE is down -6.39. Singapore Strait Times is down -7.85%. Japan 10-year JGB yiield is down -0.037 at 1.119.

    Japan’s real wages fall again despite nominal pay boost from bonuses

    Japan’s nominal wages rose 3.1% yoy in February, a notable jump from downwardly revised 1.8%yoy in January, matching expectations.

    However, this strong print was largely driven by a surge in special payments, which skyrocketed 77.4% yoy. Regular pay, considered a more stable indicator of wage trends, actually slowed to 1.6% yoy from the prior month’s 2.1% yoy, signaling only moderate momentum in base salary growth.

    Despite the upbeat headline figure, real wages—which adjust for inflation—fell for the second consecutive month, down -1.2% yoy. This came as consumer inflation, as calculated by the labor ministry, remained elevated at 4.3% yoy, down slightly from January’s 4.7% yoy.

    Gold rebounds from sub-3000 dip as market panic deepens in Asia

    Gold had a shaky start to the week, being dragged below 3000 psychological level briefly, alongside broader risk asset liquidation. But as stock markets across Asia extended their crash into Monday, the precious metal caught some safe haven flows and bounced back above 3030 quickly.

    Meanwhile, a critical 2950/60 zone appears to be providing strong support for Gold too. Reaction to this zone would unveil whether the intensifying global trade tensions and deepening equity losses are re-anchoring Gold as a defensive asset.

    The 2950/60 zone marks the confluence of 2956.09 resistance turned support, 38.2% retracement of 2832.41 to 3167.62 at 2960.46, and trend line support at 2957.62.

    Technically, break above 55 4H EMA (now at 3075.81) will set the range for sideway consolidations. That would also keep outlook bullish for extending the long term up trend at a later stage.

    However, sustained break of 2950/60 will argue that Gold is also in medium term correction, with risk of falling back to 2584.24/2789.92 support zone.

    WTI oil breaches 60 as trade war and OPEC+ output plans weigh

    Oil prices extended their steep losses in Asian trading today, with WTI crude briefly dipping below the psychological level of 60 for the first time in nearly four years.

    The persistent global equity selloff and deepening concerns over the economic fallout from the trade war have triggered fears about demand destruction, which remains difficult to quantify. Until there’s clarity on how much global consumption will be impacted, markets are likely to remain under pressure.

    Adding to the bearish tone, OPEC+ announced last week that it would advance the timeline for increasing output, with plans to raise production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in May, compared to the previous plan of just 135,000 bpd. The supply boost, at a time of growing demand concerns, is exacerbating the imbalance and fueling the sharp price decline.

    Technically, WTI oil might find some support at 100% projection of 81.01 to 65.24 from 72.37 at 56.60 to form a short term bottom. However, firm break of 56.60 could quickly push WTI towards 50 psychological level to 138.2% projection at 50.57.

    Fed’s patience faces test with inflation and consumer sentiment; RBNZ to cut again

    The week ahead is packed with key US economic releases and a major central bank decision in New Zealand, all set against the backdrop of escalating global tariff tensions.

    Fed is clearly stuck between a rock and a hard place. This week’s US CPI data might show a slowdown in both headline and core readings. However, with core reading still hovering around 3%, and risk of tariffs boosting inflation in the near term, there is little room for Fed to rush to resume policy easing.

    Meanwhile, markets, business and consumer sentiment has clearly deteriorated to an extent that recession risks are now real. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index will offer a timely snapshot of how households are responding to the reciprocal tariffs that dominated headlines over the past two weeks. The survey window, March 25 through April 7, overlaps with the US announcement and China’s retaliatory move, making it a valuable real-time pulse check on inflation expectations and confidence.

    FOMC minutes are not expected to deliver any surprises. Markets will be keen to learn how much weight the Committee gave to tariff risks during its March discussions. But of course, with reciprocal tariffs now implemented, any earlier assessments may already be outdated. Nevertheless, insights into the range of views within Fed could help shape expectations for the timing of the next policy move.

    On the central banking front, RBNZ is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 bps to 3.50%. This move would be in line with RBNZ’s February guidance, which projected two cuts in the first half of the year to keep inflation within the 1–3% target range. The bank sees 3.00% as the neutral rate, meaning policy will remain mildly restrictive even after the cut. Unless economic conditions have materially changed, a deviation from this path would be surprising.

    However, markets will also be watching how the RBNZ responds to recent global turmoil. The US has slapped a 10% tariff on all New Zealand exports, yet Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has stated that New Zealand will not retaliate. Whether the RBNZ views this as a meaningful threat to growth or simply a policy headwind to monitor could influence how aggressively it plans to ease in the second half of the year.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: Japan labor cash earnings; Germany industrial production, trade balance; Swiss foreign currency reserves; Eurozone retail sales, Sentix investor confidence; Canada BOC business outlook survey.
    • Tuesday: Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, NAB business confidence; US NFIB small business index; Canada Ivey PMI.
    • Wednesday: RBNZ rate decision’ Japan consumer confidence; US FOMC minutes.
    • Thursday: Japan PPI; China CPI, PPI; US CPI, jobless claims.
    • Friday: New Zealand BNZ manufacturing; Germany CPI final; UK GDP, production, trade balance; US PPI, U of Michigan consumer sentiment.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5907; (P) 0.6120; (R1) 0.6252; More…

    Intraday bias in AUD/USD stays on the downside for the moment. Current fall from 0.6941 should target 61.8% projection of 0.6941 to 0.6087 from 0.6388 at 0.5860. On the upside, above 0.6062 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6388 resistance holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Labor Cash Earnings Y/Y Feb 3.10% 3.10% 2.80% 1.80%
    05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Feb P 107.9 107.8 108.3
    06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Feb -0.90% 2.00%
    06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Feb 17.8B 16.0B
    07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) Mar 735B
    08:30 EUR Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Apr -8.7 -2.9
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.50% -0.30%
    14:30 CAD BoC Business Outlook Survey

     



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  • Global Markets Plunge, Aussie Down Ahead of RBA

    Global Markets Plunge, Aussie Down Ahead of RBA


    Risk aversion is sweeping through global financial markets today, with equities across Asia and Europe plunging ahead of the US’s so-called tariff “Liberation Day” on April 2. The selloff began in Asia, and continued through European Session. US futures are also pointing sharply lower, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ bearing the brunt of the pressure. Meanwhile, Gold continues to surge, with prices pushing above 3120 and showing no signs of slowing.

    Currency markets reflect the prevailing risk-off tone, with Yen leading gains as investors seek refuge. Dollar and Sterling are also relatively firm. Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are the weakest performers. Euro and Swiss Franc are trading mixed in the middle.

    Australia’s RBA decision tomorrow will be in focus, though it’s unlikely to trigger fireworks. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 4.10%, emphasizing its vigilance on inflation while pushing back on expectations for a rapid easing cycle.

    The big four banks are split on the path forward. CBA, Westpac, and NAB anticipate three more RBA cuts this year starting in May, subject to Australia’s Q1 CPI report due April 2. ANZ, on the other hand, sees just one more cut in August, which would leave the cash rate at 3.85%.

    Technically, Nikkei broke through 35987.13 to resume the decline from 40398.23. The development affirms that case that corrective pattern from 42426.77 (2024 high) is already in its third leg. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 40398.23 to 35987.13 from 38220.69 at 35494.62 could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 33809.58. If realized, the next fall in Nikkei would likely be accompanied by another down leg in USD/JPY.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.26%. DAX is down -1.73%. CAC is down -1.71%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.051 at 4.660. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.04 at 2.695. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -4.05%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.31%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.46%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.066 to 1.488.

    ECB Lagarde: Europe must march toward economic independence amid tariff threats

    ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for Europe to assert more control over its economic future in light of looming US tariffs, set to begin on April 2.

    In a France Inter radio interview, Lagarde reframed the narrative around “Liberation Day,” saying that while the US sees it as a move toward sovereignty, Europe must seize it as an inflection point—“a march toward independence.”

    Lagarde reiterated her previous estimates that tariffs from the US could shave around 0.3% off Eurozone growth in the first year. Should Europe retaliate with reciprocal measures, the negative impact could deepen to as much as 0.5%.

    On inflation, Lagarde noted that keeping it in check remains a “constant battle.” She stressed that while some progress has been made, inflation needs to fall in a sustainable way. That, she said, requires a carefully calibrated interest rate policy.

    ECB’s Panetta: Uncertainty demands caution on rate cuts

    Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned that the battle against inflation “cannot yet be said to be over.” and urged caution in the timing of interest rate cuts.

    In a speech today, Panetta pointed to the heightened uncertainty stemming from “contradictory” announcements on US trade policy, suggesting that such unpredictability complicates the ECB’s path forward. As a result, the central bank must continue to monitor “all the factors that could hinder the return to the 2% target”

    Panetta emphasized the balancing act the ECB now faces. On one hand, subdued consumption and investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak Eurozone growth, are helping to ease inflationary pressures.

    But on the other hand, the resurgence of uncertainty—particularly around US tariffs—means the ECB must remain vigilant and not rush into policy loosening.

    Japan’s industrial production beats with 2.5% mom growth in Feb

    Japan’s industrial production rose 2.5% mom in February, beating market expectations of 1.9% mom gain. The strong growth was driven by key tech-related sectors, with chipmaking machinery output jumping 8.2% and electronic parts and devices surging 10.1%.

    A survey by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects continued, albeit modest, gains in output of 0.6% mom in March and 0.1% mom in April.

    While the headline data is encouraging, the METI acknowledged that the outlook could quickly shift. Though no direct production impact from the proposed US tariffs has been reported yet, METI emphasized the need to monitor the situation more closely going forward.

    On the consumer side, retail sales grew just 1.4% yoy, missing expectations of a 2.4% rise.

    NZ ANZ business confidence dips to 57.5, rising inflation expectations stir doubts over RBNZ cuts

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence dipped slightly from 58.4 to 57.5 in March. Own Activity Outlook improved from 45.1 to 48.6.

    However, the data also brought a clear warning on inflationary pressures. Cost expectations surged from 71.3 to 74.1, the highest level in a year. Pricing intentions climbed from 46.2 to 51.3, marking the strongest since May 2023.

    Perhaps more importantly, one-year inflation expectations also ticked up from 2.53% to 2.63%, inching further above the RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target.

    ANZ flagged the rising inflation signals as “a little disconcerting,” cautioning that these developments could influence how enthusiastic RBNZ will be about delivering further rate cuts.

    A rate cut at the April meeting appears locked in, and a second in May is viewed as likely. However, ANZ noted that the odds of a third cut in July are now “more of a coin toss.”

    China’s official PMI manufacturing rises to 50.5, but labor market lags

    China’s official PMI data for March offered modest optimism, with the manufacturing index rising from 50.2 to 50.5, matching expectations and marking its highest level in a year.

    Sub-indices for production and new orders both improved to 52.6 and 51.8, respectively. However, employment index slipped to 48.2, highlighting persistent weakness in labor market conditions within the manufacturing sector.

    Non-manufacturing activity also improved slightly, with the PMI climbing from 50.4 to 50.8, beating expectations of 50.5.

    Still, employment in the non-manufacturing sector deteriorated, with the index falling to 45.8, as both the services and construction sectors shed workers.

    AUD/USD Mid-Day Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6275; (P) 0.6293; (R1) 0.6306; More…

    Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with break of 0.6257 support. Fall from 0.6390 should now target 0.6186 next. Firm break there e will indicate that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and larger fall from 0.6941 is ready to resume. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6329 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6467) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P 2.50% 1.90% -1.10%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb 1.40% 2.40% 4.40%
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Mar 57.5 58.4
    00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Feb 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.5 50.5 50.2
    01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.8 50.5 50.4
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 2.40% -1.90% -4.60%
    06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% -0.10% 1.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.80% 0.00% 0.20%
    08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb 0.20% 1.10% 1.30%
    08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 65K 66K 66K
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.20% 2.30%
    13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 45.4 45.5

     



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  • Nikkei Crashes as Auto Tariff Reality Hits, Yen and Gold Soar as “Liberation Day” Looms

    Nikkei Crashes as Auto Tariff Reality Hits, Yen and Gold Soar as “Liberation Day” Looms


    Risk aversion erupted across Asian markets today, with Japan bearing the brunt of the selloff. Nikkei plummeted by nearly than -4%, marking its worst day in months and sending the index to its lowest level since September last year. The sharp move comes as traders scramble to reassess the impact of US President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on all automobile imports, which are set to take effect Thursday. Previously, there had been some hope that Japan, a long-standing US ally, might be spared. But with no signs of exemption, the market is now forcefully pricing in the worst-case scenario.

    Japanese Yen surged broadly on the wave of safe-haven buying, with investors rushing to unwind risk trades amid intensifying global trade tensions. The Yen’s rally was amplified by the direct blow to Japan’s key auto sector, a pillar of its export economy. The sharp shift in sentiment underscores how markets had underappreciated the possibility of Japan being caught in the crossfire of Trump’s aggressive trade policy.

    The turbulence comes just days ahead of the so-called “Liberation Day” on Wednesday, when the US is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs on trading partners. The threat of a global trade war escalation is now overtaking all other themes in the market, overshadowing this week’s otherwise significant calendar including the US ISM indexes, non-farm payrolls, Eurozone inflation, and RBA rate decision.

    Overall in the currency markets, Yen is by far the top performer today so far, followed by another safe haven Swiss Franc. Sterling is holding up better than most, helped by reports that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Trump had “productive” trade talks over the weekend, suggesting the UK may be spared from some of the harsher tariff measures.

    Commodity currencies are the clear losers, with Kiwi and Aussie at the bottom of the board amid their risk-sensitive profiles and economic ties to China. Loonie, Dollar, and Euro are also under pressure, though less dramatically.

    Risk aversion also pushed Gold to new record high above 3100 mark. Technically, the break of medium term channel resistance is a significant sign of upside acceleration. For now, near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 3012.27 support holds. Next target is 100% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3204.26. But considering current momentum, Gold might indeed be having an eye on 161.8% projection at 3434.06, or even 3500 psychological level already.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -3.95%. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.48%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.68%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.044 at 1.510.

    Japan’s industrial production beats with 2.5% mom growth in Feb

    Japan’s industrial production rose 2.5% mom in February, beating market expectations of 1.9% mom gain. The strong growth was driven by key tech-related sectors, with chipmaking machinery output jumping 8.2% and electronic parts and devices surging 10.1%.

    A survey by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects continued, albeit modest, gains in output of 0.6% mom in March and 0.1% mom in April.

    While the headline data is encouraging, the METI acknowledged that the outlook could quickly shift. Though no direct production impact from the proposed US tariffs has been reported yet, METI emphasized the need to monitor the situation more closely going forward.

    On the consumer side, retail sales grew just 1.4% yoy, missing expectations of a 2.4% rise.

    NZ ANZ business confidence dips to 57.5, rising inflation expectations stir doubts over RBNZ cuts

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence dipped slightly from 58.4 to 57.5 in March. Own Activity Outlook improved from 45.1 to 48.6.

    However, the data also brought a clear warning on inflationary pressures. Cost expectations surged from 71.3 to 74.1, the highest level in a year. Pricing intentions climbed from 46.2 to 51.3, marking the strongest since May 2023.

    Perhaps more importantly, one-year inflation expectations also ticked up from 2.53% to 2.63%, inching further above the RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target.

    ANZ flagged the rising inflation signals as “a little disconcerting,” cautioning that these developments could influence how enthusiastic RBNZ will be about delivering further rate cuts.

    A rate cut at the April meeting appears locked in, and a second in May is viewed as likely. However, ANZ noted that the odds of a third cut in July are now “more of a coin toss.”

    China’s official PMI manufacturing rises to 50.5, but labor market lags

    China’s official PMI data for March offered modest optimism, with the manufacturing index rising from 50.2 to 50.5, matching expectations and marking its highest level in a year.

    Sub-indices for production and new orders both improved to 52.6 and 51.8, respectively. However, employment index slipped to 48.2, highlighting persistent weakness in labor market conditions within the manufacturing sector.

    Non-manufacturing activity also improved slightly, with the PMI climbing from 50.4 to 50.8, beating expectations of 50.5.

    Still, employment in the non-manufacturing sector deteriorated, with the index falling to 45.8, as both the services and construction sectors shed workers.

    Central banks and top-tier data share spotlight with tariffs

    Markets are understandably fixated on the looming April 2 announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the US. However, this week is also packed with central bank events and high-impact economic data that could shift sentiment and market direction.

    RBA will be a key event, with broad consensus pointing to a hold at 4.10%. Despite some recent softness in data, RBA officials have maintained a modestly hawkish stance following the February rate cut. A follow-up move in April appears unlikely, especially with the next quarterly inflation report not due until April 30. The big four banks—CBA, Westpac, NAB, and ANZ—all expect the central bank to stay on hold this month.

    Meanwhile, the US will release a slate of economic data, including ISM manufacturing and services indexes and the all-important non-farm payrolls report. ISM manufacturing dipped back into contraction in February, but the services side has remained resilient. So far, tariff threats have not shown up in the ISM data, but it’s unclear whether that changes in March’s readings. The labor market remains a key variable—strong job growth would support Fed’s patient stance. But a sudden deterioration, though likely viewed as noise, could still rattle policymakers.

    The Eurozone’s flash CPI will be equally important as speculation builds over a potential rate pause by the ECB. While some members have floated the idea of holding rates in April, data hasn’t been convincing enough to justify it. This week’s inflation print could be the deciding factor. Additionally, ECB minutes from the March meeting will be dissected for clues about internal divisions and how much weight is being placed on the evolving external risks like tariffs.

    Beyond these, there are several key international releases to keep an eye on. Japan’s Tankan business sentiment survey, Canada’s employment data, Swiss CPI, and China’s PMIs will round out a dense calendar.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: Japan industrial production, retail sales; New Zealand ANZ business confidence; China official PMIs; Germany import prices, retail sales, CPI flash; US Chicago PMI.
    • Tuesday: Japan Tankan survey, PMI manufacturing final; China Caixin PMI manufacturing; RBA rate decision, Australia retail sales; Swiss retail sales; Eurozone PMI manufacturing final, CPI flash, unemployment rate; UK PMI manufacturing final; Canada PMI manufacturing; US ISM manufacturing.
    • Wednesday: Japan monetary base; US ADP employment, factory orders.
    • Thursday: Australia trade balance; China Caixin PMI services; Swiss CPI; Eurozone PMI services final, PPI, ECB accounts; UK PMI services final; Canada trade balance; US jobless claims, trade balance, ISM services.
    • Friday: Japan household spending; Swiss unemployment rate; Germany factor orders; UK PMI construction; Canada employment; US non-farm payrolls.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.26; (P) 150.23; (R1) 150.79; More…

    USD/JPY’s break of 149.53 support suggests that corrective recovery has already completed at 151.20. That came just ahead of 151.29 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 146.52 at 151.23). Intraday bias is back on the downside for retesting 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next. For now, outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.23/9 holds in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P 2.50% 1.90% -1.10%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb 1.40% 2.40% 4.40%
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Mar 57.5 58.4
    00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Feb 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.5 50.5 50.2
    01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.8 50.5 50.4
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 2.40% -1.90% -4.60%
    06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Feb -0.10% 1.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.00% 0.20%
    08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb 1.10% 1.30%
    08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 66K 66K
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.40%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.30%
    13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 45.4 45.5

     



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  • Loonie Softens on Retail Sales Miss, But BoC Inflation Focus Limits Losses

    Loonie Softens on Retail Sales Miss, But BoC Inflation Focus Limits Losses


    Canadian Dollar weakened modestly in early US session following disappointing retail sales data. January’s figures showed a larger-than-contraction, and more importantly, an advance estimate points to another drop in February. This suggests consumer spending might be in a weakening trend, raising fresh concerns about Canada’s economic momentum heading into Q2.

    However, the selloff in the Loonie has been relatively limited so far. BoC Governor Tiff Macklem’s comments from Thursday may have offered some cushion. Macklem warned against allowing initial price spikes from tariffs to morph into broader inflationary pressures, highlighting the need for vigilance in monetary policy. This has fueled market speculation that BoC may pause its rate cutting cycle in April to better assess tariff impacts and inflation risks.

    Meanwhile, Euro is coming under some pressure along with Germany’s DAX index, despite a historic win for the country’s fiscal policy. Germany’s Bundesrat passed a major spending package aimed at reviving growth and bolstering defense. However, traders seem to be locking in profits after weeks of rallying on anticipation of this very outcome, suggesting the news may have been fully priced in.

    For the week so far, Swiss Franc is now the top performer, followed by Kiwi and then Loonie. Aussie lags at the bottom, trailed by Euro and Yen. Dollar and Pound are stuck in the middle of the pack.

    Canadian retail sales down -0.6% mom in Jan, more contraction in Feb

    Canada’s retail sales dropped -0.6% mom to CAD 69.4B in January, marking a steeper-than-expected decline and signaling subdued consumer spending.

    The largest drag came from motor vehicle and parts dealers, while overall sales fell in three of nine subsectors.

    Core retail sales, which strip out gasoline and auto-related purchases, also slipped -0.2%.

    Adding to the concern, Statistics Canada’s advance estimate suggests retail sales fell another -0.4% in February.

    Japan’s CPI core slows less than expected to 3% in Feb

    Japan’s core consumer inflation eased for the first time in four months in February, but less than market expectations. While the data strengthens the case for another BoJ rate hike at the April 30–May 1 meeting, policymakers may still choose to wait until July to better assess the impact of US tariff escalation and broader global financial market risks.

    CPI core (excluding fresh food) slowed from 3.2% yoy to 3.0% yoy, slightly above expectations of 2.9%. The moderation was partly due to the resumption of government subsidies on utility bills. Despite this, core inflation has stayed above BoJ’s 2% target since April 2022.

    More significantly, core-core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy, marking the fastest pace since March 2024. This continued strength in underlying inflation, even as services inflation softened slightly from 1.4% yoy to 1.3% yoy, reflects steady pass-through of higher labor costs.

    Meanwhile, headline CPI slowed from 4.0% yoy to 3.7% yoy.

    New Zealand posts NZD 510m trade surplus as exports surge across key markets

    New Zealand posted a surprise trade surplus of NZD 510m in February, defying expectations of a NZD -235m deficit.

    Goods exports jumped 16% yoy to NZD 6.7B, led by strong demand from key trading partners including China, Australia, and the EU. Notably, exports to China surged by 16% yoy, while shipments to Australia and the EU rose by 17% yoy and 37% yoy, respectively. The only major decline was seen in exports to the US, which slipped by -5.5% yoy.

    Goods imports edged up a modest 2.1% yoy to NZD 6.2B, with notable volatility in country-level data. Imports from the US spiked 41% yoy, while those from South Korea plunged -57% yoy. Imports from Australia (-9.3% yoy) and the EU (-3.3% yoy)also declined. Despite the pickup from the US and China (3.8% yoy), subdued import figures from other regions helped tilt the trade balance into surplus.

    USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.32; (P) 148.64; (R1) 149.10; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral and outlook is unchanged. Corrective pattern from 146.52 might extend. But in case of stronger recovery, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance. On the downside, firm break of 148.17 support will bring retest of 146.52 first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb 510M -235M -486M -544M
    23:50 JPY National CPI Y/Y Feb 3.70% 4%
    23:50 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Feb 3.00% 2.90% 3.20%
    23:50 JPY National CPI Core-Core Y/Y Feb 2.60% 2.50%
    00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Mar -19 -21 -20
    07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb 10.7B -10.9B -15.4B -13.3B
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan 35.4B 38.4B
    12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Feb 0.10% 0.00% -0.10%
    12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.60% -0.40% 2.50% 2.60%
    12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jan 0.20% -0.10% 2.70% 2.90%
    15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar P -13 -14

     



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  • Dollar Recovery Remains Fragile While Bitcoin Struggles for Traction

    Dollar Recovery Remains Fragile While Bitcoin Struggles for Traction


    Dollar continues to grapple with reversing its recent bearish trend, but momentum behind the rebound remains tentative at best. The greenback has received modest support from Fed’s stance, with policymakers emphasizing there’s no urgency to resume rate cuts. This, combined with a general reassessment of earlier bearish bets, has helped slow the pace of decline in Dollar, even as sentiment remains cautious.

    One of the key themes driving recent market behavior has been the ongoing trade war narrative. Despite rising concerns about a recession in the US triggered by escalating tariffs, those fears have yet to materialize in hard data. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a relatively balanced tone in this week’s FOMC press conference, holding back from sounding overly pessimistic. Traders may now be stepping back from aggressive short positions, waiting for more clarity—particularly around the reciprocal tariffs due in early April.

    Looking across the currency markets, Yen is the worst performer so far this week, gaining little traction even after stronger-than-expected inflation data from Japan. Aussie follows, pressured by disappointing jobs data, while the Euro is beginning to consolidate gains following renewed optimism over the EU’s large-scale fiscal expansion plans. On the flip side, the Canadian Dollar surprisingly leads, despite Canada’s exposure to US tariffs, with Swiss Franc and Kiwi following Dollar and Sterling are relatively mixed, occupying the middle of the pack.

    Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s recovery is showing signs of fatigue after hitting 87462 earlier in the week. President Donald Trump’s bold declaration that the US will become the global “undisputed Bitcoin superpower” at a recent crypto conference failed to spark meaningful market response. Despite the rhetoric, traders seem more focused on underlying technical and macroeconomic factors than political promises.

    Nevertheless, technically, Bitcoin is still holding firmly above 73812 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 15452 to 109571 at 73617. The choppy decline from 109571 is viewed as a correction only. Firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 89980) will argue that the pullback has already completed, and bring stronger rebound back to retest 109571 high.

    In Asia, Nikkei fell -0.20%. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.06%. China Shanghai SSE is down -1.29%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.08%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.004 to 1.527. Overnight, DOW fell -0.03%. S&P 500 fell -0.22%. NASDAQ fell -0.33%. 10-year yield fell -0.023 to 4.233.

    Japan’s CPI core slows less than expected to 3% in Feb

    Japan’s core consumer inflation eased for the first time in four months in February, but less than market expectations. While the data strengthens the case for another BoJ rate hike at the April 30–May 1 meeting, policymakers may still choose to wait until July to better assess the impact of US tariff escalation and broader global financial market risks.

    CPI core (excluding fresh food) slowed from 3.2% yoy to 3.0% yoy, slightly above expectations of 2.9%. The moderation was partly due to the resumption of government subsidies on utility bills. Despite this, core inflation has stayed above BoJ’s 2% target since April 2022.

    More significantly, core-core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy, marking the fastest pace since March 2024. This continued strength in underlying inflation, even as services inflation softened slightly from 1.4% yoy to 1.3% yoy, reflects steady pass-through of higher labor costs.

    Meanwhile, headline CPI slowed from 4.0% yoy to 3.7% yoy.

    New Zealand posts NZD 510m trade surplus as exports surge across key markets

    New Zealand posted a surprise trade surplus of NZD 510m in February, defying expectations of a NZD -235m deficit.

    Goods exports jumped 16% yoy to NZD 6.7B, led by strong demand from key trading partners including China, Australia, and the EU. Notably, exports to China surged by 16% yoy, while shipments to Australia and the EU rose by 17% yoy and 37% yoy, respectively. The only major decline was seen in exports to the US, which slipped by -5.5% yoy.

    Goods imports edged up a modest 2.1% yoy to NZD 6.2B, with notable volatility in country-level data. Imports from the US spiked 41% yoy, while those from South Korea plunged -57% yoy. Imports from Australia (-9.3% yoy) and the EU (-3.3% yoy)also declined. Despite the pickup from the US and China (3.8% yoy), subdued import figures from other regions helped tilt the trade balance into surplus.

    BoC Governor: Crucial to Stop Initial Tariff Price Shocks from Becoming Generalized Inflation

    Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem issued a stark warning on the economic consequences of prolonged US tariffs, emphasizing that broad-based and long-lasting trade barriers will depress Canadian exports, reduce overall output, and push consumer prices higher.

    In a speech overnight, Macklem noted that the unpredictability of US tariffs, marked by “constant policy reversals”, has injected significant uncertainty into the outlook for Canadian businesses and households.

    Macklem highlighted two major areas of concern: uncertainty about which tariffs will be imposed and for how long, and uncertainty about their economic impact.

    Already, the BoC has observed that businesses are cutting back investment and hiring, and many households are growing more cautious with spending. He warned that if broad-based tariffs remain in place, the result will be “less demand, less economic growth and higher inflation”.

    While monetary policy cannot prevent the initial rise in prices caused by tariffs, Macklem stressed that it must act to “prevent those initial, direct price increases from spreading”.

    “We must ensure that higher prices from tariffs do not become ongoing generalized inflation,” he emphasized.

    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4290; (P) 1.4346; (R1) 1.4379; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 1.4238 support will argue that corrective pattern from 1.4791 has started the third leg already. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for 1.4150 support and below. On the upside, though, break of 1.4541 will resume the rebound from 1.4150, as the second leg of the pattern.

    In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Feb 510M -235M -486M -544M
    23:50 JPY National CPI Y/Y Feb 3.70% 4%
    23:50 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Feb 3.00% 2.90% 3.20%
    23:50 JPY National CPI Core-Core Y/Y Feb 2.60% 2.50%
    00:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Mar -19 -21 -20
    07:00 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Feb 10.7B -10.9B -15.4B -13.3B
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Jan 38.4B
    12:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Feb 0.00% -0.10%
    12:30 CAD Retail Sales M/M Jan -0.40% 2.50%
    12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Jan -0.10% 2.70%
    15:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Mar P -13 -14

     



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  • New Zealand February Trade Surplus NZ0 Million

    New Zealand February Trade Surplus NZ$510 Million


    New Zealand posted a merchandise trade surplus of NZ$510 million in February, Statistics New Zealand said on Friday.

    That beat forecasts for a deficit of NZ$235 million following the downwardly revised NZ$544 million shortfall in January (originally -NZ$486 million).

    Exports came in at NZ$6.74 billion, up from the downwardly revised NZ$6.06 billion in the previous month (originally NZ$6.74 billion).

    Imports were at NZ$6.23 billion, down from the downwardly revised NZ$6.60 billion a month earlier (originally NZ$6.68 billion).

    For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

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  • Sterling Holds Firm After BoE, But Dollar and Yen Outperform

    Sterling Holds Firm After BoE, But Dollar and Yen Outperform


    Sterling is trading slightly firmer today, though it struggles against the rebounding Dollar and Yen. BoE’s rate decision leaned slightly more hawkish than expected, with only one member of the MPC, the known dove Swati Dhingra, voting for a rate cut. The rest supported keeping rates on hold. The overall tone of the statement remained unchanged, reinforcing a gradual and cautious approach to monetary easing. While BoE acknowledged downside risks to growth, it sounded alert on inflation persistence, signaling that the central bank is unlikely to rush into aggressive rate cuts.

    Meanwhile, Swiss Franc weakened after the SNB cut rates by 25bps to 0.25%. The message wasn’t particularly dovish. The central bank still see inflation rising back to 0.8% in 2026. Given that interest rates are already at an ultra-low level, if incoming data aligns with this forecast, further rate cuts may not be necessary anytime soon. This outlook helped cushion Franc’s downside but was not enough to prevent weakness against stronger currencies like Yen and Dollar.

    In the broader forex markets, Dollar and Yen are leading the charge today, though their rebounds remain relatively unconvincing. Both currencies have struggled to sustain momentum so far despite benefiting mildly from renewed risk aversion in global markets. Meanwhile, Kiwi and Aussie are under pressure, appearing to be weighed down by dampened sentiment. Loonie and European majors are stuck in the middle of the pack.

    Technically, Gold is struggling to extend gains, as it loses momentum near key resistance levels. It has so far failed to decisively break above the 61.8% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3062.21, a level that coincides with a medium-term rising channel resistance. A break below 3022.66 support would indicate short-term topping, potentially leading to a deeper pullback toward the 55 4H EMA (now at 2983.99) or even further into the 2832.41/2956.09 support zone.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.07%. DAX is down -1.40%. CAC is down -0.96%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.045 at 4.597. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.043 at 2.764. Earlier in Asia, Japan was on holiday. Hong Kong HSI fell -2.23%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.51%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.57%.

    US initial jobless claims rise to 223k vs exp 222k

    US initial jobless claims rose 2k to 223k in the week ending March 15, slightly above expectation of 222k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 750 to 227k.

    Continuing claims rose 33k to 1892k in the week ending March 18. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 6k to 1876k.

    BoE holds rates at 4.50%, Dhingra lone dissenter for a cut

    BoE left the benchmark Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50%, in line with market expectations. Known dove Swati Dhingra once again dissenting, and voted in favor of a 25bps rate cut. However, Catherine Mann, who had previously voted for a 50bps cut, switched her stance and supported keeping rates on hold.

    The accompanying statement emphasized a “gradual and careful approach” to rate cuts, reinforcing that BoE is not in a rush to ease policy despite some signs of economic softness.

    BoE also highlighted growing global uncertainties, particularly surrounding intensified trade policy risks and geopolitical tensions. The committee acknowledged the impact of new US tariffs and retaliatory measures from some governments. Additionally, recent German fiscal reforms were noted.

    While UK GDP growth has been “slightly stronger than expected”, business surveys continue to point to underlying weakness in employment intentions and broader economic activity. BoE expects CPI to rise to around 3.75% in Q3 2025, and to “fall back thereafter”. But policymakers remain cautious about potential persistent inflationary pressures.

    UK payrolled employment rises 21k in Feb, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4% in Jan

    In February, UK payrolled employment rose by 21k (0.1% mom). However, median monthly pay growth slowed to 5.0% yoy from 6.0%, reinforcing signs that wage pressures are gradually easing. However claimant count, surged 44.2k, far exceeding expectations of 7.9k.

    In the three months to January, unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.4%, slightly better than the expected 4.5%. Average earnings including bonuses rose by 5.8% yoy, just below expectations of 5.9%. Excluding bonuses, wages rose 5.9% yoy, in line with forecasts.

    SNB cuts 25bps, flags downside inflation risks and uncertain growth outlook

    SNB delivered a widely expected 25bps rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 0.25%. In its statement, SNB justified the decision by pointing to low inflationary pressures and “heightened downside risks to inflation”.

    The central bank acknowledged that Switzerland’s economic outlook has become “considerably more uncertain”, particularly due to rising global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. The external environment remains a key threat to growth.

    The new conditional inflation forecast suggests that inflation will remain well within its price stability range, averaging 0.4% in 2025, and 0.8% in both 2026 and 2027. These projections assume that the policy rate stays at 0.25% throughout the forecast horizon.

    On the growth front, SNB expects GDP to expand between 1% and 1.5% in 2025, with domestic demand benefiting from rising real wages and easier monetary conditions. However, weak external demand is expected to act as a drag on growth. For 2026, SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1.5%.

    ECB’s Lagarde warns US-EU tariff war could slash eurozone growth by 0.5%

    Speaking to a European Parliament committe, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that US tariffs of 25% on European imports could have a significant negative impact on the Eurozone economy, cutting growth by around 0.3% in the first year.

    If the EU responds with retaliatory tariffs, the impact could deepen, reducing Eurozone GDP growth by as much as 0.5%.

    While the sharpest impact would be felt in the first year, Lagarde emphasized that the effects would be long-lasting, leaving a “persistent negative effect on the level of output”.

    Beyond growth concerns, inflation outlook would also become highly uncertain in such a scenario.

    In the short term, EU retaliatory measures and a weaker Euro—stemming from lower US demand for European products—could push inflation higher by around 0.5%.

    In the medium term, weaker economic activity would dampen price pressures, ultimately counteracting the initial inflationary impact.

    New Zealand GDP exits recession with stronger-than-expected 0.7% qoq growth in Q4

    New Zealand’s economy expanded by 0.7% qoq in Q4, surpassing expectations of 0.4% qoq and officially pulling the country out of recession. However, the broader picture remains mixed, as GDP still declined by -0.5% yoy, reflecting the lingering impact of previous contractions.

    The positive quarterly growth was driven by expansions in 11 out of 16 industries, with the rental, hiring, and real estate sector, retail trade, and healthcare services leading the gains.

    Despite the overall improvement, some key sectors struggled, with construction and information media & telecommunications posting declines.

    Still, a major positive takeaway from the report is that GDP per capita rose by 0.4% in Q4, marking its first increase in two years.

    Australian employment plunges -52.8k in Feb, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

    Australia’s employment dropped sharply by -52.8k in February, significantly missing market expectations of 30k gain. The decline was broad-based, with full-time jobs falling by -35.7k and part-time employment down by -17k.

    Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts. The participation rate declined by -0.4% to 66.8%, suggesting that fewer people were actively seeking work, which helped keep the jobless rate from rising. Additionally, monthly hours worked fell by -0.4% mom, reflecting softer labor market conditions.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics attributed part of the decline in employment to fewer older workers re-entering the labor force. However, the broader trend still points to resilience in the job market, with employment up by 266k people, or 1.9%, compared to last year. The annual employment growth rate remains close to the 20-year pre-pandemic average of 2.0%.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2969; (P) 1.2990; (R1) 1.3025; More…

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral again with current retreat. On the downside, firm break of 1.2910 support should confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD. In this case, intraday bias will be back on the downside for near term channel support (now at 1.2770). On the upside, though, above 1.3013 will resume the rally from 1.2099 towards 1.3433 high.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.40% -1.00% -1.10%
    00:30 AUD Employment Change Feb -52.8K 30K 44K 30.5K
    00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Feb 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
    01:00 CNY 1-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%
    01:00 CNY 5-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
    07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 4.80B 5.01B 6.12B 6.15B
    07:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Feb -0.20% 0.20% -0.10%
    07:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Feb 0.70% 1.00% 0.50%
    07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Feb 44.2K 7.9K 22K
    07:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jan 4.40% 4.50% 4.40%
    07:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Jan 5.80% 5.90% 6.00% 6.10%
    07:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Jan 5.90% 5.90% 5.90%
    08:30 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.50%
    09:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
    09:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
    11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
    11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0–1–8 0–2–7 0–9–0
    12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 0.40% 0.30% 1.60%
    12:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% -0.30% 3.70%
    12:30 USD Current Account (USD) Q4 -304B -337B -311B -310B
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14) 223K 222K 220K 221K
    12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Mar 12.5 12.1 18.1
    14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 3.92M 4.08M
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 3B -62B

     



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  • Yen Rebounds on Risk-Off Mood in Asia, Focus Shifts to SNB and BoE

    Yen Rebounds on Risk-Off Mood in Asia, Focus Shifts to SNB and BoE


    Asian markets are showing signs of mild risk-off sentiment today, with Hong Kong and China stocks retreating from recent gains. The weaker regional tone contributed to a stronger Yen. Additionally, Yen’s rebound is also fueled by post-FOMC Dollar softness. The technical picture suggests that the recent pullback in Yen against Dollar has likely run its course, allowing the currency to regain some ground.

    Meanwhile, the weaker regional sentiment has put pressure on New Zealand Dollar, despite the strong GDP data that showed the country exiting recession. Aussie is also under pressure, not just due to the broader market risk aversion but also because of softer-than-expected employment data, which saw a surprise contraction in jobs. While both the Kiwi and Aussie have had some resilience earlier this week, today’s price action suggests that traders are probably turning more cautious.

    SNB rate decision will be the first major focus in the European session, with the central bank widely expected to deliver another 25bps rate cut. A key question is whether SNB signals that the current easing cycle is nearing its end. Attention will then shift to BoE, which is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate steady. The focus will be on the voting composition within the MPC.

    For the week so far, Dollar is currently the worst performer, followed by Euro and Aussie. On the other hand, Swiss Franc is the strongest, followed by Kiwi and Sterling. Loonie and Yen are positioning in the middle, with Yen’s outlook improving due to today’s risk-off flows.

    In Asia, Japan is on holiday. Hong Kong HSI is down -1.51%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.25%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.67%. Overnight, DOW rose 0.92%. S&P 500 rose 1.08%. NASDAQ rose 1.41%. 10-year yield fell -0.025 to 4.256.

    US stocks recovered as Fed sticks to two rate cut outlook for 2025

    US stocks closed higher overnight, and extended their near-term consolidations. Investors were somewhat relieved that Fed maintained its outlook for two rate cuts this year. However, the central bank also introduced a note of caution, warning in its statement that “uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased” and that it remains “attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”

    In the post-meeting press conference, Chair Jerome Powell explicitly addressed the impact of tariffs. He warned that “the arrival of tariff inflation may delay further progress” on disinflation. He also noted that Fed’s quarterly summary of economic projections does not show further downward progress on inflation this year, attributing this to new tariffs coming into effect.

    This acknowledgment reinforces the stance that while rate cuts remain in the pipeline, the timing and extent of policy easing will depend on how inflation evolves in the face of trade disruptions and supply chain adjustments.

    Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50%, a widely expected move. Fed fund futures now assign roughly 70% probability that the next rate cut will come in June, compared to just 47% a month ago.

    Technically, S&P 500 turned into consolidations after falling to 5504.65 last week. 55 W EMA (now at 5596.07) could offer some support for a near term recovery. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 5873.77) holds.

    On resumption, fall from 6147.43, as a correction to the rise from 3491.58, should target 38.2% retracement at 5132.89.

    New Zealand GDP exits recession with stronger-than-expected 0.7% qoq growth in Q4

    New Zealand’s economy expanded by 0.7% qoq in Q4, surpassing expectations of 0.4% qoq and officially pulling the country out of recession. However, the broader picture remains mixed, as GDP still declined by -0.5% yoy, reflecting the lingering impact of previous contractions.

    The positive quarterly growth was driven by expansions in 11 out of 16 industries, with the rental, hiring, and real estate sector, retail trade, and healthcare services leading the gains.

    Despite the overall improvement, some key sectors struggled, with construction and information media & telecommunications posting declines.

    Still, a major positive takeaway from the report is that GDP per capita rose by 0.4% in Q4, marking its first increase in two years.

    Australian employment plunges -52.8k in Feb, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%

    Australia’s employment dropped sharply by -52.8k in February, significantly missing market expectations of 30k gain. The decline was broad-based, with full-time jobs falling by -35.7k and part-time employment down by -17k.

    Unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%, in line with forecasts. The participation rate declined by -0.4% to 66.8%, suggesting that fewer people were actively seeking work, which helped keep the jobless rate from rising. Additionally, monthly hours worked fell by -0.4% mom, reflecting softer labor market conditions.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics attributed part of the decline in employment to fewer older workers re-entering the labor force. However, the broader trend still points to resilience in the job market, with employment up by 266k people, or 1.9%, compared to last year. The annual employment growth rate remains close to the 20-year pre-pandemic average of 2.0%.

    SNB to cut, BoE to hold, a look at GBP/CHF

    Two major central banks will announce their monetary policy decisions today, with SNB leading, followed by BoE.

    SNB is widely expected to lower its policy rate by 25bps to 0.25%. With inflation at just 0.3% in February, well below the mid-point of target range, there is both room and necessity for further easing to keep medium-term inflation expectations anchored closer to 1%.

    However, the urgency for additional policy support appears to be diminishing, especially with growing optimism around Eurozone economy. Stronger Eurozone growth, driven by major fiscal expansion plans, is expected to lift Euro and boost demand for Swiss exports, which could help mitigate recession and deflation risks in Switzerland.

    A Reuters poll of economists showed that most expect rates to remain at 0.25% by year-end, while 10 foresee a move to 0%, and only three expect SNB to maintain the current 0.50% level.

    Meanwhile, BoE is widely expected to hold its Bank Rate steady at 4.5%, with little change to its cautious forward guidance. A Reuters poll of 61 economists showed unanimous expectations for a rate hold today, with the next cuts projected for May, August, and November.

    The key focus for markets will be whether any additional Monetary Policy Committee members join Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra in voting for an immediate rate cut, which could signal a shift toward a more dovish stance in the coming months.

    Technically, while GBP/CHF extended the rally from 1.1086, it has clearly struggled to find convincing momentum. It’s plausible that this rise is the third leg of the corrective rebound from 1.0741, which has already completed after meeting 61.8% projection of 1.0741 to 1.1368 from 1.1086 at 11437. Break of 1.1299 support will solidify this bearish case and bring deeper fall back to 1.1086 support. Nevertheless firm break of 1.1501 will pave the way to 1.1675 resistance next.

    USD/JPY Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.15; (P) 149.15; (R1) 149.69; More…

    USD/JPY’s currently steep decline suggests rejection by near term falling channel resistance. Immediate focus is now on 148.22 minor support. Firm break there will indicate that corrective rebound from 146.52 has completed and bring retest of this low first. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 146.32 will resume the fall from 158.86 to 139.57 support. In case of another recovery, upside should be limited by 150.92 support turned resistance.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.40% -1.00% -1.10%
    00:30 AUD Employment Change Feb -52.8K 30K 44K 30.5K
    00:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Feb 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
    01:00 CNY 1-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.10% 3.10% 3.10%
    01:00 CNY 5-Y Loan Prime Rate 3.60% 3.60% 3.60%
    07:00 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Feb 5.01B 6.12B
    07:00 EUR Germany PPI M/M Feb 0.20% -0.10%
    07:00 EUR Germany PPI Y/Y Feb 1.00% 0.50%
    07:00 GBP Claimant Count Change Feb 7.9K 22K
    07:00 GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) Jan 4.50% 4.40%
    07:00 GBP Average Earnings Including Bonus 3M/Y Jan 5.90% 6.00%
    07:00 GBP Average Earnings Excluding Bonus 3M/Y Jan 5.90%
    08:30 CHF SNB Interest Rate Decision 0.25% 0.50%
    09:00 CHF SNB Press Conference
    09:00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
    11:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50%
    11:00 GBP MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0–2–7 0–9–0
    12:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Feb 0.30% 1.60%
    12:30 CAD Raw Material Price Index M/M Feb -0.30% 3.70%
    12:30 USD Current Account (USD) Q4 -337B -311B
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14) 222K 220K
    12:30 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Mar 12.1 18.1
    14:00 USD Existing Home Sales Feb 3.92M 4.08M
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 3B -62B

     



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  • Dollar Edges Lower Post-Retail Sales, But Cautious Traders Keep Selling Momentum Limited

    Dollar Edges Lower Post-Retail Sales, But Cautious Traders Keep Selling Momentum Limited


    Dollar edged lower in early U.S. trading following weaker-than-expected retail sales data. However, the downside pressure remained limited, as investors took comfort in the fact that February’s sales growth marked a return to expansion after contraction in January. The data helped ease fears of an extended downturn in consumer spending, with markets breathing a sigh of relief that demand has not fallen into a prolonged slump. Still, with Fed’s policy decision and updated economic projections looming midweek, traders remain cautious and hesitant to take aggressive positions.

    Beyond Fed, geopolitical developments are also on investors’ minds. U.S. President Donald Trump indicated he would speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss potential steps toward ending the war in Ukraine. This follows positive talks between US and Russian officials in Moscow, raising hopes that diplomatic efforts could progress. However, it remains uncertain whether concrete agreements will emerge, and markets will be closely monitoring any developments that could impact global risk sentiment.

    Meanwhile, Euro traders are also in wait-and-see mode, with focus squarely on Germany’s parliamentary vote on Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz’s proposed state borrowing program tomorrow. The budget committee approved the plans on Sunday, but the vote faces last-minute legal challenges from the far-right Alternative for Germany party, which has petitioned the constitutional court, arguing that there was insufficient time for expert scrutiny. If the challenge gains traction, it could delay or complicate the EUR500B infrastructure and defense spending program.

    Adding to concerns for Germany, the Munich-based Ifo Institute released a bleak economic forecast, predicting that the country’s economy will grow by just 0.2% this year, following two consecutive years of contraction. The report cited weak demand for industrial goods and increasing competitive pressures from global markets as key drags on growth.

    In the currency markets, New Zealand Dollar is currently the strongest performer, followed by Australian Dollar, both of which are benefiting from renewed optimism surrounding China’s “special action plan” to boost consumption. On the other end, Japanese Yen is the weakest, followed by Dollar and Euro. The British pound and Swiss Franc are currently in the middle of the pack.

    Technically, AUD/NZD’s decline from 1.1173 accelerates lower today. Immediate focus is now on 1.0940 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0567 to 1.1177 at 1.0944). Strong rebound from there will keep the up trend from 1.0567 intact for another rally through 1.1177 at a later stage. However, sustained break of 1.0940/4 will complete a double top pattern (1.1177, 1.1173), and indicates bearish trend reversal. Deeper decline should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0800 next.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.26%. DAX is up 0.26%. CAC is up 0.40%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.023 at 4.651. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.060 at 2.819. Earlier in Asia,Nikkei rose 0.93%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.77%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.19%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.61%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.025 to 1.503.

    OECD trims global growth outlook amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty

    OECD forecasts a slight slowdown in global economic growth over the next two years, reflecting the effects of escalating trade tensions and heightened policy uncertainty. In its Interim Economic Outlook, OECD projects global growth will ease from 3.2% in 2024 to 3.1% in 2025, and further to 3.0% in 2026. These numbers represent a downgrade from its previous forecasts, which projected 3.3% growth for both this year and next.

    Among advanced economies, the US is expected to lose momentum, with growth forecast at 2.2% in 2025 before cooling to 1.6% in 2026—down from earlier estimates of 2.4% and 2.1%.

    Meanwhile, Eurozone is projected to increase from 1.0% growth this year to 1.2% in 2026. Although this marks an improvement relative to 2024’s mild performance, it still lags the OECD’s previous forecasts of 1.3% and 1.5%.

    The imposition of higher tariffs is expected to weigh particularly heavily on North American economies beyond the US. Canada’s growth rate is set to slow to 0.7% this year and next, well below the 2% previously estimated.

    Mexico would be hit hardest, with its economy forecast to contract by -1.3% in 2025 and a further -0.6% the following year—reversing prior expectations for moderate growth.

    By contrast, China appears relatively well-positioned to manage the fallout from higher tariffs. OECD anticipates that targeted government stimulus will support growth to 4.8% in 2025—slightly above the previous forecast of 4.7%—before moderating to 4.4% in 2026.

    OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann warned that signs of weakness are emerging in the global economy, primarily due to “heightened policy uncertainty.” He added that “increasing trade restrictions” will raise costs for both production and consumption.

    US retail sales rises 0.2% mom in Feb, ex-auto sales up 0.3% mom

    US retail sales grew 0.2% mom to USD 722.7B in February, well below expectation of 0.7% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 584.7B , below expectation of 0.5% mom.

    Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.3% mom. to USD 669.9B. Ex-auto& gasoline sales rose 0.5% mom to USD 627.2B.

    Total sales for December through February period was up 3.8% from the same period a year ago.

    ECB’s de Guindos: Trump’s tariffs complicate ECB’s monetary policy decisions

    ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos acknowledged that US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies have made the central bank’s monetary policy decisions more challenging, creating an environment of increased uncertainty.

    Speaking to Spanish radio Onda Cero, de Guindos noted that the “clarity regarding future decisions” has diminished in a situation “much more opaque than just six months ago.”

    He also pushed back ECB’s inflation target timeline, stating that inflation is now expected to reach the 2% goal in Q1 2026, later than the previous mid-2025 projection, due to the impact of higher energy prices.

    Despite these concerns, de Guindos remained cautiously optimistic that “everything is moving in the right direction.” While tariffs could lead to some short-term inflationary effects, he suggested that slower economic activity resulting from trade disruptions could ultimately offset these pressures over time.

    NZ BNZ services falls to 49.1, slips back into contraction

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell back into contraction territory in February, dropping from 50.4 to 49.1. The index remains well below its long-term average of 53.0.

    Key components of the survey also showed deterioration, with Activity/Sales slipping from 53.8 to 49.2, New Orders/Business falling from 50.0 to 49.4, and Stocks/Inventories declining from 50.0 to 48.0. While Employment showed a slight improvement, rising from 47.4 to 48.9, it remains in contraction.

    Despite the sector’s renewed contraction, negative sentiment among businesses showed a modest improvement, with 57.8% of comments in February expressing pessimism, down from 61.9% in January. Most firms cited the challenging economic climate as their primary concern.

    BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “while one might have hoped that the PSI would move higher again, we know that economic turning points can be messy. The brief foray above 50 in January remains the only month in the last year the PSI hasn’t been in contraction”.

    China’s data shows resilient start in 2025, government unveils plan to boost consumption

    China’s economy got off to a stronger-than-expected start in the first two months of the year. Industrial production grew 5.9% yoy, beating market expectations of 5.3% yoy. Retail sales also exceeded forecasts, rising 4.0% yoy compared to an expected 3.8% yoy, reflecting improving consumer demand.

    Meanwhile, fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% yoy, surpassing projections of 3.2% yoy, but ongoing weaknesses in the real estate sector persisted, with property investment falling -9.8% yoy. Additionally, private investment remained flat, signaling that confidence among smaller businesses and private enterprises was subdued.

    China’s National Bureau of Statistics noted that existing and new policies aimed at stimulating growth have begun to take effect, leading to steady expansion in the industrial and services sectors, improved investment, and stable employment conditions. Officials highlighted “new quality productive forces” as key drivers of momentum.

    To further bolster domestic demand, China’s State Council unveiled a “special action plan” over the weekend, aiming to increase household incomes, introduce childcare subsidies, and reduce financial burdens to encourage consumption.

    While the plan was widely circulated across local governments, it lacked concrete details on financial support for implementation, leaving uncertainties about its immediate impact.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2910; (P) 1.2934; (R1) 1.2958; More…

    GBP/USD bounces slightly today and outlook is unchanged. Further rally is in favor with 1.2860 support intact. On the upside, sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.3433 to 1.2099 at 1.2923 will pave the way back to 1.3433 high. However, break of 1.2860 will indicate short term topping, and turn bias back to the downside for deeper pullback.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is not completed. Resumption is expected after corrective pattern from 1.3433 completes. Next target will be 1.4248 key resistance. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.2099 support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:30 NZD Business NZ PSI Feb 49.1 50.4
    00:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index M/M Mar 1.10% 0.50%
    02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb 5.90% 5.30% 6.20%
    02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Feb 4.00% 3.80% 3.70%
    02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Feb 4.10% 3.20% 3.20%
    12:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 229K 249K 240K 239K
    12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar -20 -1.9 5.7
    12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.20% 0.70% -0.90% -1.20%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Feb 0.30% 0.50% -0.40% -0.60%
    14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 43 42

     



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  • China Stimulus Fuels Asian Rally, But Market Caution Persists on US Outlook

    China Stimulus Fuels Asian Rally, But Market Caution Persists on US Outlook


    Asian markets opened the week on a positive note, buoyed by stronger-than-expected economic data from China and optimism surrounding Beijing’s latest efforts to boost domestic consumption. Investors welcomed China’s “special action plan” aimed at stimulating household spending, which aligns with Premier Li Qiang’s government report last week that named consumption growth as a top priority. The latest measures also follow commitments from financial regulators to ease consumer credit quotas and loan terms, signaling a broad push to inject liquidity into the economy and support consumer demand.

    While the plan does not appear to introduce any groundbreaking new policies, its classification as an “action plan” suggests that concrete steps at the local level will soon follow. Given past challenges in reviving domestic demand, this structured approach offers hope that implementation will be more effective than previous, less-defined efforts. Investors appear to be cautiously optimistic that China’s stimulus measures will help stabilize growth, particularly amid continued weakness in real estate and private investment.

    Meanwhile, US futures are trending lower, reflecting growing fears of an impending economic slowdown. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks over the weekend did little to reassure investors, as he acknowledged that there are “no guarantees” the US will avoid a recession. While Bessent emphasized the need to transition away from excessive government spending, his comments about market corrections being “healthy” and his dismissal of recent stock market losses failed to inspire confidence. His focus on tax policy, deregulation, and energy security was seen as a long-term strategy rather than an immediate remedy for economic concerns.

    On the currency front, New Zealand Dollar is currently the strongest performer this month, despite today’s weaker services data. Swiss Franc follows behind, while Australian Dollar takes the third spot. On the weaker side, Canadian Dollar sits at the bottom, trailed by Dollar and British Pound. Meanwhile, Euro and Yen are positioned in the middle.

    Technically, while Hong Kong’s HSI gains today, the broader picture suggests upside momentum is fading, as seen in D MACD. Current rally from 18671.49 may extend higher, but strong resistance is expected around the 25K psychological level, which coincides with 100% projection of 16964.28 to 23241.74 from 18671.49 at 24948.95. Break of 23198.13 support will argue that the a near term correction has already started back to 55 D EMA (now at 21988), or 22k in short.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.21%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.37%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.28%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.84%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.011 at 1.517.

    NZ BNZ services falls to 49.1, slips back into contraction

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index fell back into contraction territory in February, dropping from 50.4 to 49.1. The index remains well below its long-term average of 53.0.

    Key components of the survey also showed deterioration, with Activity/Sales slipping from 53.8 to 49.2, New Orders/Business falling from 50.0 to 49.4, and Stocks/Inventories declining from 50.0 to 48.0. While Employment showed a slight improvement, rising from 47.4 to 48.9, it remains in contraction.

    Despite the sector’s renewed contraction, negative sentiment among businesses showed a modest improvement, with 57.8% of comments in February expressing pessimism, down from 61.9% in January. Most firms cited the challenging economic climate as their primary concern.

    BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “while one might have hoped that the PSI would move higher again, we know that economic turning points can be messy. The brief foray above 50 in January remains the only month in the last year the PSI hasn’t been in contraction”.

    China’s data shows resilient start in 2025, government unveils plan to boost consumption

    China’s economy got off to a stronger-than-expected start in the first two months of the year. Industrial production grew 5.9% yoy, beating market expectations of 5.3% yoy. Retail sales also exceeded forecasts, rising 4.0% yoy compared to an expected 3.8% yoy, reflecting improving consumer demand.

    Meanwhile, fixed asset investment increased by 4.1% yoy, surpassing projections of 3.2% yoy, but ongoing weaknesses in the real estate sector persisted, with property investment falling -9.8% yoy. Additionally, private investment remained flat, signaling that confidence among smaller businesses and private enterprises was subdued.

    China’s National Bureau of Statistics noted that existing and new policies aimed at stimulating growth have begun to take effect, leading to steady expansion in the industrial and services sectors, improved investment, and stable employment conditions. Officials highlighted “new quality productive forces” as key drivers of momentum.

    To further bolster domestic demand, China’s State Council unveiled a “special action plan” over the weekend, aiming to increase household incomes, introduce childcare subsidies, and reduce financial burdens to encourage consumption.

    While the plan was widely circulated across local governments, it lacked concrete details on financial support for implementation, leaving uncertainties about its immediate impact.

    ECB’s de Guindos: Trade and geopolitical risks make uncertainty worse than pandemic time

    ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed confidence that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target “the end of this year or the beginning of next.” He added that “all indicators for services and underlying inflation are moving in the right direction.”

    However, he warned that uncertainty in the global economy is “even higher than it was during the pandemic”, with mounting geopolitical risks and shifting trade policies. A key concern is the more protectionist stance of the new US. administration, which de Guindos sees as a major departure from multilateral cooperation. “This is a very important change, and a big source of uncertainty,” he warned.

    Despite improving conditions—real wages rising, inflation easing, and financing conditions loosening—consumption in the Eurozone remains weak. De Guindos attributed this sluggish demand to consumer sentiment, noting that households are hesitant to spend due to fears about the medium-term economic outlook. “The possibility of a trade war or wider geopolitical conflict has an impact on consumer confidence,” he noted.

    On the fiscal front, de Guindos acknowledged the massive defense spending plans by European governments as “certainly a decision in the right direction”. Nevertheless, he cautioned that it’s too early to determine the full economic impact. While increased defense investment is likely to support growth, he believes it will have only a limited effect on inflation.

    Four central banks take center stage amid global data deluge

    Central bank policy decisions will dominate market attention this week, as Fed, BoJ, BoE and SNB each convene to set monetary policy. The announcements come against a backdrop of critical data releases, including inflation figures from Canada and Japan, employment reports from the UK and Australia, retail sales updates from the US and Canada, as well as GDP from New Zealand.

    Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady at 4.25-4.50%, with virtually no chance of a surprise move. While markets anticipate no immediate change, there remains keen interest in the new economic projections. Back in December, the median forecast called for just two rate cuts by year-end, bringing the rate down to 3.75–4.00%. Any downward revision to this path would solidify expectations for a June cut, making it in line with Fed fund futures pricing. Additionally, by the end of 2027, Fed sees rates back at 3.00–3.25%, marginally above the longer-run neutral estimate at 3.00%. Markets will also watch whether Fed’s new projections suggest faster pace of reaching neutral, which would in turn indicate a dovish turn on the economic outlook.

    BoJ is also expected to hold rates steady at 0.50%, with 61 of 62 economists in a recent Reuters poll forecasting no change this week. poll. However, expectations are growing for a rate hike later this year, with 18 of 61 economists predicting a move to 0.75% in Q2, while 40 of 57 see it happening in Q3. The timing will largely depend on wage negotiations, which has so far been strong. Many of Japan’s largest corporations already met union demands for significant pay raises. This raises the possibility of an earlier-than-expected hike, and markets will be looking for any guidance from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda regarding the bank’s next steps.

    BoE will also hold rates steady at 4.50%, maintaining its measured approach of one 25bps cut per quarter. Inflation expectations remain sticky, with the latest BoE survey showing that five-year inflation expectations rose to 3.6% in February, up from 3.4% in November—the highest level since 2019. This could keep the majority of the MPC hesitant to ease policy further prematurely. The key question at this meeting will be whether more members join Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra in voting for a more aggressive loosening of monetary policy.

    In contrast, SNB is forecast to cut its key policy rate by another 25bps, bringing it down to 0.25%. Swiss inflation dropped to just 0.3% in February, the lowest since April 2021, which strengthens the argument for another rate cut. With inflation now sitting at the lower end of the 0-2% target range, policymakers are likely to lower rates further to prevent a deflationary environment. Market expectations suggest that there is already a 20% probability that SNB will cut rates again in June, bringing interest rates down to 0%.

    Here are some highlights for the week:

    • Monday: New Zealand BNZ services; China industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment; Canada housing starts; US retail sales, Empire State manufacturing, business inventories, NAHB housing index.
    • Tuesday: Japan tertiary industry index; Germany ZEW economic sentiment; Eurozone trade balance; Canada CPI; US housing starts and building permits, industrial production.
    • Wednesday: New Zealand current account; Japan BoJ rate decision, trade balance, machine orders; Eurozone CPI final; Fed rate decision.
    • Thursday: New Zealand GDP; Australia employment; SNB rate decision, Swiss trade balance; Germany PPI; BoE rate decision, UK employment; Canada IPPI and RMPI; US jobless claims, Philly Fed survey, current account, existing home sales.
    • Friday: New Zealand trade balance; Japan CPI; UK Gfk consumer confidence; Eurozone current account; Canada retail sales, new housing price index.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6292; (P) 0.6312; (R1) 0.6345; More…

    Intraday bias in AUD/USD remains neutral first as range trading continues. On the downside, break of 0.6186 will target 0.6087 support first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 0.6941. On the upside, sustained break of 0.6407 will resume the rebound from 0.6087 to 100% projection of 0.6087 to 0.6407 from 0.6186 at 0.6506, even still as a corrective move.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6482) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:30 NZD Business NZ PSI Feb 49.1 50.4
    00:01 GBP Rightmove House Price Index M/M Mar 1.10% 0.50%
    02:00 CNY Industrial Production Y/Y Feb 5.90% 5.30% 6.20%
    02:00 CNY Retail Sales Y/Y Feb 4.00% 3.80% 3.70%
    02:00 CNY Fixed Asset Investment YTD Y/Y Feb 4.10% 3.20% 3.20%
    12:15 CAD Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 249K 240K
    12:30 USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Mar -1.9 5.7
    12:30 USD Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.70% -0.90%
    12:30 USD Retail Sales ex Autos M/M Feb 0.50% -0.40%
    14:00 USD NAHB Housing Market Index Mar 43 42

     



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  • Euro Rallies as Germany Said to Reach Landmark Debt Deal to Boost Growth

    Euro Rallies as Germany Said to Reach Landmark Debt Deal to Boost Growth


    Euro jumped notably higher following reports that Germany’s political leaders have reached a crucial agreement on the historic debt deal. According to sources close to the negotiations, Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz and the Greens have agreed on a massive increase in state borrowing, just days before a decisive parliamentary vote next week. While some details are still being finalized, the development marks a major step toward unlocking substantial funding for infrastructure, military expansion, and economic revival in Europe’s largest economy.

    Merz has been pushing for the outgoing German parliament to approve a EUR 500B infrastructure fund alongside sweeping reforms to borrowing rules that would provide greater fiscal flexibility for future investments. However, securing a two-thirds majority for constitutional changes requires support not only from his own conservative bloc and his likely coalition partner, the Social Democrats , but also from the Greens. With the Greens now onboard, the proposal has gained significant momentum, boosting confidence in Germany’s economic outlook and supporting Euro in currency markets.

    Overall for the week, Euro’s rally has helped it reclaim the top-performing spot, solidifying its strong positioning as trading nears a close. New Zealand Dollar has also performed well, buoyed by upbeat manufacturing data from New Zealand, which signaled faster-than-anticipated recovery. Meanwhile, British Pound has slipped to third place after UK GDP unexpectedly contracted in January.

    At the other end of the spectrum, Swiss Franc and Japanese Yen are the weakest performers. Canadian Dollar has also struggled amid trade war uncertainties, keeping it in the lower tier of performers. Dollar and Australian Dollar are mixed, positioning somewhere in the middle of the pack.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.67%. DAX is up 1.92%. CAC is up 1.21%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.092 at 4.725. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.085 at 2.939. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.15%. Hong Kong HSI rose 0.25%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.23%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.06%.

    Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.002 to 1.544.

    UK GDP down -0.1% mom in Jan, production drags while services support

    The UK economy shrank by -0.1% mom in January, falling short of market expectations for a modest 0.1% expansion. The decline was primarily driven by weakness in the production sector, which saw output fall by -0.9% mom , while construction activity also dipped by -0.2% mom. On the other hand, the services sector—accounting for the bulk of the UK economy—managed a modest 0.1% mom gain, helping to cushion the overall contraction.

    The broader three-month growth trend is weak too, with real GDP estimated to have expanded by 0.2% in the three months to January 2025 compared to the three months ending in October 2024. Services led the way with a 0.4% rise, while construction also posted a similar 0.4% gain. However, the production sector continued to struggle, contracting by -0.9% over the same period.

    NZ BNZ manufacturing hits 53.9 as recovery gains unexpected momentum

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 51.7 to 53.9 in February, marking its highest level since August 2022.

    This solid improvement was driven by stronger production (52.4) and new orders (51.5), both also reaching their best levels since August 2022. Meanwhile, employment surged to 54.0, climbing 3.2 points from January and hitting its highest level since September 2021.

    Despite the stronger data, business sentiment remains cautious. The proportion of negative comments from respondents rose to 59.5% in February, up from 57.7% in January. Many manufacturers cited weak orders and sluggish sales as ongoing challenges, signaling that while expansion has resumed.

    BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel welcomed the sustained improvement, noting that “pickup may be a bit faster than we are currently forecasting”.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0818; (P) 1.0857; (R1) 1.0892; More…

    EUR/USD recovers mildly but stays below 1.0946 temporary top. Intraday bias remains neutral and more consolidations could be seen. In case of another fall, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0946 at 1.0721. On the upside, break of 1.0946 will resume the rally from 1.0176 to retest 1.1274 key resistance next.

    In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0675) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume. Decisive break of 1.1274 will target 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. Also, that will send EUR/USD through a multi-decade channel resistance will carries larger bullish implication. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Feb 53.9 51.4 51.7
    07:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Feb F 0.40% 0.40% 0.40%
    07:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Feb F 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
    07:00 GBP GDP M/M Jan -0.10% 0.10% 0.40%
    07:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan -0.90% -0.10% 0.50%
    07:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan -1.50% -0.70% -1.90%
    07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan -1.10% 0.00% 0.70%
    07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan -1.50% -0.40% -1.40%
    12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Jan 1.70% 2.00% 0.30%
    12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jan 1.20% 1.80% -0.20%
    14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment Mar P 63.8 64.7
    14:00 USD UoM Inflation Expectations Mar P 3.50%

     



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  • Equities Extend Losses on Tariff Fears, But Forex Markets Hold Steady in Consolidation

    Equities Extend Losses on Tariff Fears, But Forex Markets Hold Steady in Consolidation


    US stock markets suffered another brutal session overnight, with NASDAQ leading the decline, shedding nearly -2%. All three major indexes closed below their respective 55 W EMAs, reinforcing the bearish case that the markets are now in a medium-term correction phase. This technical breakdown suggests that downside momentum is gaining traction, with investors recalibrating their expectations amid escalating economic uncertainty, particularly regarding the relentless stream of tariff threats.

    A major driver of the selloff remains the intensifying trade war, which shows no signs of slowing down. Tariff threats are mounting almost daily, as analysts argue that markets have yet to fully price in the potential economic fallout. The momentum of these escalations is expected to persist well into the second quarter, particularly with reciprocal tariffs set to take effect in April.

    The European Union has already signaled its intent to retaliate against US tariffs, and similar counter measures would be seen from other countries too. Beyond the EU response, additional tariffs are in the pipeline, targeting China with higher duties, and likely extending to non-border-related tariffs against Canada and Mexico. Japan could also find itself in Washington’s crosshairs, particularly over criticism about its weak currency. The sheer breadth of these tariff initiatives suggests that the market’s current adjustment may just be the beginning of a broader risk-off shift. Investors have just started offloading positions to hedge against further risks.

    Meanwhile, despite the turbulence in equities, currency markets have remained relatively steady. So far this week, the Sterling is currently the strongest performer, followed by Euro and Dollar. On the weaker end of the spectrum, Swiss Franc is the worst performer, trailed by Loonie and Aussie. Kiwi and Yen are positioned in the middle. However, almost all major currency pairs and crosses are still trading within last week’s range, suggesting that the forex market is in a consolidation phase.

    Looking ahead, today’s key data releases—UK GDP and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations—will be closely watched. U.S. consumer sentiment has already plunged by -10 points over the past two months, reflecting the growing unease surrounding tariff policies. A further steep decline in sentiment could significantly heighten recession fears and deepen the market’s risk-off mood.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.87%. Hong Kong HSI is up 2.33%. China Shanghai SSE is up 1.71%. Singapre Strait Times is down -0.21%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.018 at 1.528. Overnight, DOW fell -1.30%. S&P 500 fell -1.39%. NADSAQ fell -1.96%. 10-year yield fell -0.044 to 4.274.

    NZ BNZ manufacturing hits 53.9 as recovery gains unexpected momentum

    New Zealand’s BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index rose from 51.7 to 53.9 in February, marking its highest level since August 2022.

    This solid improvement was driven by stronger production (52.4) and new orders (51.5), both also reaching their best levels since August 2022. Meanwhile, employment surged to 54.0, climbing 3.2 points from January and hitting its highest level since September 2021.

    Despite the stronger data, business sentiment remains cautious. The proportion of negative comments from respondents rose to 59.5% in February, up from 57.7% in January. Many manufacturers cited weak orders and sluggish sales as ongoing challenges, signaling that while expansion has resumed.

    BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel welcomed the sustained improvement, noting that “pickup may be a bit faster than we are currently forecasting”.

    Gold hits record high, approaches 3000 amid ceasefire deadlock

    Gold’s up trend resumed overnight and surged to new record highs as the precious metal remains well-supported by escalating global uncertainties. The psychological 3000 level is now in sight as investors flock to the safe-haven asset. The rally is being fueled by multiple factors, including intensifying trade tensions, stalemate in Ukraine-Russia ceasefire negotiations, and the extended broad selloff in US stock markets.

    In particular, the latest developments surrounding the ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine have kept uncertainty high. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that he agreed to the US-led ceasefire proposal in principle but stopped short of fully endorsing it.

    Putin indicated that further discussions with US President Donald Trump would be necessary to ensure that the ceasefire results in a “long-term peace” and addresses the “root causes” of the conflict. He also expressed skepticism, questioning whether the proposed 30-day ceasefire would be used to “supply weapons” or “train newly mobilized units,” and raised concerns over how violations would be monitored.

    Trump, in response, acknowledged that early reports from Russia were “going OK,” but added that “doesn’t mean anything until we hear what the final outcome is.”

    With the ceasefire deal still hanging in the balance, geopolitical risks stays high.

    Technically, the next near term target for Gold is 61.8% projection of 2584.24 to 2956.09 from 2832.41 at 3062.21.

    However, a key test lies ahead in the medium-term rising channel resistance, which has capped price advances since early 2024. Rejection at this level would still maintain gold’s bullish trend but keep its momentum in check.

    On the other hand, decisive breakout above the channel resistance would signal acceleration in Gold’s uptrend. In such a scenario, gold could quickly reach 100% projection level at 3204.26.

    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4384; (P) 1.4418; (R1) 1.4477; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays neutral as sideway trading continues. Price actions from 1.4791 high are seen as a corrective pattern, with rebound from 1.4150 as the second leg. On the upside, break of 1.4541 will target 100% projection of 1.4150 to 1.4541 from 1.4238 at 1.4629 and above. But for now, strong resistance is expected from 1.4791 to limit upside to bring the third leg. On the downside, break of 1.4238 will confirm that the third leg has started through 1.4150 support.

    In the bigger picture, long term up trend is tentatively seen as resuming with prior breach of 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Next target is 100% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4993. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.3976 resistance turned support holds (2022 high), even in case of deep pullback.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:30 NZD Business NZ PMI Feb 53.9 51.4 51.7
    07:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Feb F 0.40% 0.40%
    07:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Feb F 2.30% 2.30%
    07:00 GBP GDP M/M Jan 0.10% 0.40%
    07:00 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jan -0.10% 0.50%
    07:00 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jan -0.70% -1.90%
    07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jan 0.00% 0.70%
    07:00 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jan -0.40% -1.40%
    07:00 GBP Goods Trade Balance (GBP) Jan -17.1B -17.4B
    12:30 CAD Manufacturing Sales M/M Jan 2.00% 0.30%
    12:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Jan 1.80% -0.20%
    14:00 USD UoM Consumer Sentiment Mar P 63.8 64.7
    14:00 USD UoM Inflation Expectations Mar P 3.50%

     



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  • Dollar Surges as Trump Confirms Tariff Plans, Euro Looks Vulnerable

    Dollar Surges as Trump Confirms Tariff Plans, Euro Looks Vulnerable


    Dollar surged sharply across the board in early US session trading after US President Donald Trump reinforced his tariff plans, clarifying uncertainties that had lingered in the market. In a Truth Social post, Trump confirmed that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico will “go into effect, as scheduled” on March 4. Additionally, China will face an extra 10% tariff on the same date. The April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement will also remain “in full force and effect,” he stated.

    Market reaction was swift, with the greenback rallying against all major peers, even as incoming US economic data provided a mixed picture. January durable goods orders came in stronger than expected, but only driven largely by transportation equipment. Also, the labor market flashed a potential warning sign, as initial jobless claims surged to their highest level since December.

    Yen and Swiss Franc are on the softer side today as US and European benchmark yields rebounded. However, neither currency showed a strong directional push. Euro, on the other hand, appears increasingly vulnerable, particularly against the British Pound. The latest selloff in EUR/GBP looks poised to gain further traction, as Eurozone fundamentals remain weak and tariff threats linger.

    For the week so far, Dollar is now the strongest one with today’s rally. Sterling is sitting as the second, followed by Yen. Kiwi and Aussie are the worst performers for now, followed by Loonie. Euro and Swiss Franc are mixed in the middle.

    Technically, USD/CAD’s strong break of 1.4378 resistance suggests that corrective pullback from 1.4791 has already completed at 1.4150. Further rise is expected as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 1.4275) holds, for retesting 1.4791 high. Strong resistance might be seen there to limit upside on first attempt.

    However, the final implementation of tariffs on Canada might provided the needed fuel to power USD/CAD through 1.4791 to resume the larger up trend.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.04%. DAX is down -1.20%. CAC is down -0.77%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.014 at 4.520. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.002 at 2.438. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.30%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.29%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.23%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.34%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.003 to 1.396.

    US durable goods orders rise 3.1% mom, led by transportation equipment

    US durable goods orders rose 3.1% mom to USD 286.0B in January, well above expectation of 2.0% mom. Transportation equipment led the increase by 9.8% to USD 96.5B.

    Ex-transport orders was flat at 189.5B, below expectation of 0.4% mom. Ex-defense orders rose 3.5% mom to USD 268.7B.

    US initial jobless claims jump to 242k, above expectation 220k

    US initial jobless claims rose 22k to 242k in the week ending February 22, above expectation of 220k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 8.5k to 224k.

    Continuing claims fell -5k to 1862k in the week ending February 15. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 3k to 1865k.

    ECB Minutes: No room for forward guidance as caution prevails

    ECB’s January 29-30 meeting account revealed that policymakers saw a “clear case” for a 25bps rate cut. Members agreed that disinflation is “well on track”, and confidence in inflation converging to target has grown.

    However, the accounts highlighted several lingering uncertainties that warranted a cautious approach going forward. Policymakers emphasized the need to maintain a data-dependent stance, with “no room for forward guidance” at this stage.

    Upside risks to inflation remained from elevated energy and food prices, strong wage growth, and persistent services inflation.

    ECB also flagged geopolitical tensions, fiscal policy concerns within Eurozone, and global trade uncertainties as downside risks to growth, “which typically also implied downside risks to inflation over longer horizons.”

    Swiss GDP expands 0.2% qoq in Q4, driven by domestic demand

    Switzerland’s economy maintained steady growth in Q4, with GDP expanding 0.5% qoq when adjusted for sporting events. Without the adjustment, GDP rose 0.2% qoq, in-line with expectations.

    Private consumption increased by 0.5%, supported by higher spending on health, recreation, and culture. Government consumption also grew at the same pace, slightly exceeding historical trends.

    Investment in equipment rebounded 1.0%, breaking a two-quarter decline, largely due to higher spending on aircraft and other volatile categories.

    The increase in domestic demand also led to a 0.9% rise in imports of goods and services, with foreign trade contributing positively to GDP growth.

    RBA’s Hauser: Global uncertainty justifies rate cut, but more easing depends on disnflation evidence

    RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told the parliament today that mounting global uncertainty had a chilling effect on economic activity, which played a role in the board’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 bps this month.

    He noted that businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, delaying investment projects and expansion plans as they wait for clearer economic signals, “just to see how things pan out.”

    This hesitation, he suggested, made a slight easing of monetary policy a “sensible” response to support economic stability.

    However, Hauser emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on incoming inflation data. Policymakers remain optimistic about further disinflation but need to see clear evidence before committing to additional policy easing.

    NZ ANZ business confidence rises to 58.4, on the path to recovery

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence rose from 54.4 to 58.4 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook, slipped slightly from 45.8 to 45.1, highlighting that while sentiment is improving, actual activity remains uncertain.

    Pricing and cost indicators painted a mixed picture. Inflation expectations for the next year eased from 2.67% to 2.53% and cost expectations fell from 73.6 to 71.3. But wage expectations remained elevated at 79.2 despite fall from 83.1, and pricing intentions ticked up from 45.7 to 46.2.

    ANZ noted that the economy is on the “path to recovery,” supported by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices. However, the bank cautioned that the next phase of growth remains “a point of debate.”

    The pace of expansion will depend on how households perceive current interest rates, the extent to which global uncertainty influences business investment, and whether firms push forward despite challenges. Additionally, potential labor shortages could emerge as a key constraint on further growth.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0464; (P) 1.0496; (R1) 1.0518; More…

    EUR/USD dips notably in early US session but stays above 1.0400 support. Intraday bias stays neutral first. Firm break of 1.0400 should indicate that corrective pattern from 1.0400 has completed. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.0176/0210 support zone. Overall, near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 holds in case of another recovery.

    In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Feb 58.4 54.4
    00:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q4 -0.20% 0.60% 1.10% 1.60%
    08:00 CHF GDP Q/Q Q4 0.20% 0.20% 0.40%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan 3.60% 3.80% 3.50% 3.40%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Feb 96.3 96 95.2 95.3
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb -11.4 -12 -12.9 -12.7
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Feb 6.2 6.8 6.6 6.7
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F -13.6 -13.6 -13.6
    12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
    13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q4 -5.0B -3.2B -3.2B -3.6B
    13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21) 242K 220K 219K 220K
    13:30 USD GDP Annualized Q4 P 2.30% 2.30% 2.30%
    13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 P 4.20% 2.20% 2.20%
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jan 3.10% 2.00% -2.20%
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Jan 0.00% 0.40% 0.30%
    15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jan -1.30% -5.50%
    15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -276B -196B

     



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  • Dollar Attempts Another Comeback, Aussie Lags

    Dollar Attempts Another Comeback, Aussie Lags


    Dollar traded broadly higher in Asian session, trying to stage a comeback after a failed rally attempt overnight. Renewed focus on tariffs appears to be driving some of the greenback’s momentum. Meanwhile, broader market sentiment is just steady following Nvidia’s strong earnings report, with lingering concerns over competition from China’s DeepSeek AI continue to weigh.

    Tariffs are back in headlines after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick revealed that the “big transaction” involving reciprocal tariffs is set for April 2. The date was pushed from April 1, as US President Donald Trump—citing superstition—chose to avoid making major policy moves on that day.

    Lutnick also noted that Canada and Mexico could avoid the planned 25% tariffs if they can demonstrate sufficient progress on border security and fentanyl control. However, he added that Trump would ultimately decide whether to pause again or proceed with the tariffs.

    Despite Nvidia reporting an impressive 78% year-over-year sales increase and a 93% jump in data center revenue, its struggle to rebound with momentum. The company has yet to fully recover from its 17% drop on January 27—its worst single-day decline since 2020—amid growing concerns about China’s emerging AI competitor, DeepSeek.

    Elsewhere, Aussie is struggling despite comments from a top RBA official suggesting that rate cuts are not on auto-pilot and that further easing would require more disinflation evidence. This cautious stance should have provided some support for the Aussie, but broader risk-off sentiment is keeping the currency under pressure.

    For now, Aussie is sitting at the bottom of today’s performance chart. Kiwi is also underperforming, while Swiss Franc is the third worst performer of the day so far. At the top of the performance table, Dollar leads, followed by Yen and Loonie. Euro and British Pound are positioning in the middle.

    Technically, AUD/JPY’s fall from 102.39 resumed this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 102.39 to 95.50 from 98.75 at 91.86. As this decline is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 90.10, strong support should be seen around there to bring reversal. But risk will continue to stays on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 96.74) holds, in case of recovery.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.14%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.76%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.49%. Singapore Strait Times is down -0.13%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.036 at 1.402. Overnight, DOW fell -0.43%. S&P 500 rose 0.01%. NASDAQ rose 0.26%. 10-year yield fell -0.049 to 4.249.

    RBA’s Hauser: Global uncertainty justifies rate cut, but more easing depends on disnflation evidence

    RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser told the parliament today that mounting global uncertainty had a chilling effect on economic activity, which played a role in the board’s decision to cut the cash rate by 25 bps this month.

    He noted that businesses are becoming increasingly cautious, delaying investment projects and expansion plans as they wait for clearer economic signals, “just to see how things pan out.”

    This hesitation, he suggested, made a slight easing of monetary policy a “sensible” response to support economic stability.

    However, Hauser emphasized that further rate cuts are not guaranteed and will depend on incoming inflation data. Policymakers remain optimistic about further disinflation but need to see clear evidence before committing to additional policy easing.

    NZ ANZ business confidence rises to 58.4, on the path to recovery

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence rose from 54.4 to 58.4 in February. However, the Own Activity Outlook, slipped slightly from 45.8 to 45.1, highlighting that while sentiment is improving, actual activity remains uncertain.

    Pricing and cost indicators painted a mixed picture. Inflation expectations for the next year eased from 2.67% to 2.53% and cost expectations fell from 73.6 to 71.3. But wage expectations remained elevated at 79.2 despite fall from 83.1, and pricing intentions ticked up from 45.7 to 46.2.

    ANZ noted that the economy is on the “path to recovery,” supported by lower interest rates and stronger-than-expected commodity export prices. However, the bank cautioned that the next phase of growth remains “a point of debate.”

    The pace of expansion will depend on how households perceive current interest rates, the extent to which global uncertainty influences business investment, and whether firms push forward despite challenges. Additionally, potential labor shortages could emerge as a key constraint on further growth.

    BoE’s Dhingra: Orderly trade fragmentation unlikely to require monetary policy response

    BoE MPC member Swati Dhingra suggested that the inflationary impact of rising global tariffs could be tempered by weaker economic growth.

    She added that if the global economy undergoes a “fragmentation in an orderly way,” monetary policy might not need to react immediately as prices readjust to new geopolitical shifts.

    However, she cautioned that in an “extreme scenario” where multiple major economies erect significant trade barriers similar to those proposed by the US, “severe strain on a few sources of supply” could lead to sharp price spikes, reminiscent of those seen following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

    Despite the risks, Dhingra downplayed the likelihood of a severe disruption, noting that “the world economy seems to be moving closer to an orderly fragmentation.”

    Looking ahead

    Swiss GDP, Eurozone M3 monthly supply will be released in European session. ECB will publish meeting accounts.

    Later in the day, US will release GDP revision, durable goods orders and pending home sales.

    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8920; (P) 0.8943; (R1) 0.8969; More…

    USD/CHF recovered notably but stays below 0.9053 resistance and intraday bias remains neutral. The corrective pattern from 0.9200 could still extend lower. But strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 0.8374 to 0.9200 at 0.8884 to complete it, and bring larger rise resumption. On the upside, above 0.9053 will bring retest of 0.9200 resistance. However, sustained break of 0.8884 will indicate bearish reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.8690 instead.

    In the bigger picture, decisive break of 0.9223 resistance will argue that whole down trend from 1.0342 (2017 high) has completed with three waves down to 0.8332 (2023 low). Outlook will be turned bullish for 1.0146 resistance next. Nevertheless, rejection by 0.9223 will retain medium term bearishness for another decline through 0.8332 at a later stage.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Feb 58.4 54.4
    00:30 AUD Private Capital Expenditure Q4 -0.20% 0.60% 1.10% 1.60%
    08:00 CHF GDP Q/Q Q4 0.20% 0.40%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Money Supply Y/Y Jan 3.80% 3.50%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Sentiment Feb 96 95.2
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb -12 -12.9
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Sentiment Feb 6.8 6.6
    10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F -13.6 -13.6
    12:30 EUR ECB Meeting Accounts
    13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q4 -3.2B -3.2B
    13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Feb 21) 220K 219K
    13:30 USD GDP Annualized Q4 P 2.30% 2.30%
    13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 P 2.20% 2.20%
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jan 2.00% -2.20%
    13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders ex Transport Jan 0.40% 0.30%
    15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jan -1.30% -5.50%
    15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -276B -196B

     



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  • Euro Fades After Brief German Election Boost

    Euro Fades After Brief German Election Boost


    Euro’s brief post-election rally faded quickly, as investors welcomed CDU/CSU’s victory but remained cautious due to lingering uncertainties around coalition formation and fiscal policy. While a relatively centrist government comprising CDU and the Social Democrats would provide stability, challenges surrounding the “debt brake” reform and defense spending continue to cloud the outlook.

    A coalition with the Greens and Social Democrats would likely be the most market-friendly outcome. However, even with these three parties combined, they fall short of the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to reform the “debt brake”, which limits Germany’s structural budget deficit to 0.35% of GDP. Meanwhile, far-right AfD remains excluded from coalition talks, as Friedrich Merz has ruled out working with them.

    This situation presents a fiscal dilemma for Germany, particularly given geopolitical uncertainties. The government faces pressure to increase both defense spending and broader fiscal stimulus, but policy divisions persist. The Left Party favors loosening the debt brake, but only for social and economic spending, not for increased defense expenditure. These divisions could complicate budget negotiations and delay much-needed investment decisions.

    Bundesbank weighed in on the debate today, backing an increase in the government’s deficit cap, citing the need for higher public investment while Germany’s debt ratio remains low. In its monthly report, the Bundesbank argued that adapting the debt brake’s borrowing limit to current economic conditions is justified, but also stressed the importance of reviewing fiscal priorities and ensuring efficient use of financial resources.

    In the currency markets, trading remains subdued, with major pairs and crosses confined within Friday’s ranges. Canadian, Australian, and New Zealand dollars are the strongest performers, while Yen is the weakest, followed by Swiss Franc and British Pound. Euro and Dollar are mixed in the middle.

    Technically, a major focus is whether the risk market selloff last week would extend today, and its impact in the forex markets. As for AUD/USD, firm break of 0.6327 support will suggest that corrective rebound from 0.6087 has completed ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.6087 at 0.6413. Deeper decline would then be seen back to retest 0.6087, with prospects of resuming the whole fall from 0.6941.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.01%/ DAX is up 0.85%. CAC is down -0.22%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.0207 at 4.597. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.020 at 2.493. Earlier in Asia, Japan was on holiday. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.58%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.18%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.06%.

    Eurozone CPI finalized at 2.5% in Jan, core CPI holds at 2.7%

    Eurozone headline inflation was finalized at 2.5% yoy in January, ticking up from 2.4% yoy in December. Core CPI, which excludes energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, remained unchanged at 2.7% yoy.

    The largest contributor to Eurozone inflation was the services sector, which added 1.77 percentage points (pp) to the overall rate. Food, alcohol, and tobacco contributed 0.45 pp, while energy added 0.18 pp, and non-energy industrial goods accounted for 0.12 pp.

    At the EU level, CPI was finalized at 2.8% yoy. The lowest inflation rates were seen in Denmark (1.4%), Ireland, Italy, and Finland (all 1.7%), indicating softer price pressures in some core economies. On the other hand, Hungary (5.7%), Romania (5.3%), and Croatia (5.0%) recorded the highest inflation levels, underlining regional imbalances in price stability.

    Compared to December, inflation fell in eight EU member states, remained unchanged in four, and rose in fifteen.

    German Ifo unchanged at 85.2, businesses waiting to see how things develop

    Germany’s Ifo Business Climate Index was unchanged at 85.2 in February, falling short of expectations for a rise to 85.8. The data reflects that businesses are still “skeptical” about the outlook, “waiting to see how things develop”, according to the Ifo Institute.

    Current Assessment Index dropped from 86.0 to 85.0, missing the forecasted 86.5. However, Expectations Index showed slight improvement, rising from 84.3 to 85.4, exceeding the consensus of 85.2.

    Sector-wise, the manufacturing index improved from -24.8 to -22.1, and trade sentiment rebounded from -29.5 to -26.2. The construction sector also saw a marginal improvement, rising from -28.1 to -27.6. However, services weakened, falling from -2.2 to -4.3.

    New Zealand retail sales rises 0.9% qoq in Q4, ex-auto sales jumps 1.4% qoq

    New Zealand’s Q4 retail sales volume rose 0.9% qoq to NZD 25B, surpassing expectations of 0.6% qoq. Excluding autos, sales jumped 1.4% qoq, well above the 0.3% qoq forecast.

    Sales volume growth was broad-based, with 10 of 15 industries posting gains. The largest increases came from electrical and electronic goods (+5.1%), department stores (+4.2%), and accommodation (+7.6%). Meanwhile, food and beverage services rose 2.3%, but pharmaceutical and other retailing declined -3.4%.

    Retail sales value climbed 1.4% qoq to NZD 30B, with 11 of 15 sectors reporting gains. Price effects were evident, particularly in accommodation (+11%), food and beverage services (+3.3%), and department stores (+2.9%).

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0436; (P) 1.0474; (R1) 1.0499; More…

    EUR/USD’s rally attempt today quickly lost momentum and intraday bias stays neutral. Outlook is unchanged that price actions from 1.0176 are forming a corrective pattern only. Strong resistance is expected from 38.2% retracement of 1.1213 to 1.0176 at 1.0572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.0400 support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.0176/0210 support zone. However, decisive break of 1.0572 will raise the chance of reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0817.

    In the bigger picture, immediate focus is on 61.8 retracement of 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 (2024 high) at 1.0199. Sustained break there will solidify the case of medium term bearish trend reversal, and pave the way back to 0.9534. However, reversal from 1.0199 will argue that price actions from 1.1274 are merely a corrective pattern, and has already completed.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD Retail Sales Q/Q Q4 0.90% 0.60% -0.10% 0.00%
    21:45 NZD Retail Sales ex Autos Q/Q Q4 1.40% 0.30% -0.80% -0.60%
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Business Climate Feb 85.2 85.8 85.1 85.2
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Current Assessment Feb 85 86.5 86.1 86
    09:00 EUR Germany IFO Expectations Feb 85.4 85.2 84.2 84.3
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan F 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
    10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Jan F 2.70% 2.70% 2.70%

     



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  • New Zealand February Trade Surplus NZ0 Million

    New Zealand Q4 Retail Sales Volume Climbs 0.9%


    The total volume of overall retail sales in New Zealand was up a seasonally adjusted 0.9 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2024, Statistics New Zealand said on Monday.

    That beat forecasts for an increase of 0.5 percent following the upwardly revised flat reading in the previous three months (originally -0.1 percent).

    The total value of seasonally adjusted retail sales was NZ$30 billion, up 1.4 percent on quarter.

    By industry, the largest volume movements were electrical and electronic goods retailing – up 5.1 percent; department stores – up 4.2 percent; accommodation – up 7.6 percent; food and beverage services – up 2.3 percent; and pharmaceutical and other store-based retailing – down 3.4 percent.

    On a yearly basis, retail sales were up 0.2 percent in Q4.

    For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

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