Tag: SEO

  • Gold price gains as Greenback loses popularity as safe haven

    Gold price gains as Greenback loses popularity as safe haven


    • Gold price rallies more than 2% on Monday with nervousness towards the Fed interest-rate decision. 
    • Geopolitical risks coming from Trump and Israel are pushing investors back into Gold.
    • The Greenback is losing its status as safe haven in favor of Bullion.

    Gold (XAU/USD) rises by more than 2% on Monday to $3,317 at the time of writing, as geopolitical risk surges. The Houthi attack that hit Ben Gurion airport this weekend and Israel’s promise to retaliate while preparing for a broad ground offensive in Gaza are elevating risks again in the region. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said that military action might be an option to consider for the US to seize control of Greenland. 

    Gold’s appeal increases as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on May 7. Over the weekend, Trump expressed his dislike again of the Fed and its Chairman Jerome Powell. After calling Powell “stiff”, the US President called upon the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members to pressure Chairman Powell to deliver rate cuts. 

    According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fedwatch tool, no rate cut is foreseen for this Wednesday. Given the recent Nonfarm Payrolls print and the latest string of data from sectors such as Manufacturing and Services, the US economy is starting to ease, but is not crashing. This could be ammunition for Fed Chairman Powell to push against the political pressure and channel to markets that rates will stay steady for longer until the Fed is comfortable enough to lower them.. 

    Daily digest market movers: Taiwan mayhem

    • Several Asian markets are closed for a public holiday on Monday. The United Kingdom is closed as well. 
    • The Taiwan Dollar (TWD) gained as much as 5% at one point over the US Dollar (USD). The move came after local exporters started selling their Dollar holdings after the Taiwan central bank on Friday issued a late statement asking exporters not to do so. Several traders are pointing out as well that in the tariff discussions between Taiwan and the Trump administration, the demand to strengthen the Taiwan Dollar is one of the elements to avoid further tariff implications for the Taiwan economy, Bloomberg reports.
    • In the Gold mining sector, some takeover news with Gold Road Resources agreeing to be bought for $3.7 billion after South African suitor Gold Fields sweetened its offer, concluding a public spat between the joint venture partners, Financial Review reports. 
    • The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting stands at 5.2% against a 94.6% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 46.6% chance of a rate cut.

    Gold Price Technical Analysis: Elastic band ready to slingshot higher

    Bullion is sprinting higher on Monday, while the Greenback dipped lower at the start of the trading day. The communication vessels synergy between the two assets comes just a few days ahead of the Fed rate decision. Generally, steady or higher rates are bad for Gold as the returns from interests in bonds are more attractive than the return from Gold. However, there might be a breakout in that narrative: if rates remain elevated at current levels, the US economy could weaken further, contract and trigger stagflation or recession, and Gold is a better positioned hedge to withstand that scenario. 

    On the upside, the R1 resistance at $3,265 has already been broken in a topside test in early trading this Monday. Should some follow-through come, the R2 at $3,337 might be a bit too far off. Rather look for $3,290 (May 1 high) and $3,320 (April 30 high) as intermediary levels nearby for upside resistance. 

    On the downside, pivot at $3,244 together with the technical level at $3,245 should do the trick and hold. In case Bullion dips further, very close supports are present near $3,219 S1 intraday support and $3,197 S2 intraday support for Monday. 

    XAU/USD: Daily Chart

    Central banks FAQs

    Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.

    A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.

    A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.

    Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.



    Source link

  • Dow Jones soars 600 points as NFP data calms recession fears, weekly gains top 3%

    Dow Jones soars 600 points as NFP data calms recession fears, weekly gains top 3%


    • April Nonfarm Payrolls beat consensus at 177K; Unemployment Rate steady at 4.2%, easing recession concerns.
    • Trump pressures Fed to cut rates despite upbeat data; CBOT shows 88 bps of easing priced in.
    • Apple and Amazon fall on China sales miss and cloud growth slowdown despite beating EPS forecasts.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied over 600 points, or over 1.65%, on Friday following a solid US jobs report that brushed aside fears that the largest economy in the world is tied into a recession. The Dow is set to end the week with gains of over 3% and, at the time of writing, hovers past the 41,300 mark after rebounding off the daily low of 40,658.

    DJIA rallies past 41,300 as solid NFP data boosts sentiment, even as Fed rate cut expectations hold steady

    US Nonfarm Payrolls in April increased by 177K, down from the downwardly revised number of 185K in March, but exceeding estimates of 130K. Earlier in the week, a dismal ADP National Employment Change report suggested that companies were hiring fewer people than the NFP revealed.

    Also, the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, aligned with forecasts, which might prevent the Federal Reserve (Fed) from easing policy.

    Karen Georges, an equity fund manager at Ecofi in Paris, said, “These good numbers are not likely to fuel inflation, but this is no game changer for the Federal Reserve and Jerome Powell.”

    US President Donald Trump took advantage of the good figures and slammed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in a post on his Truth Social network, demanding the Fed lower interest rates.

    US Factory Orders in March rose by 4.3% MoM, up from 0.5% the previous month but slightly below the 4.5% foreseen.

    Stocks related news

    In the meantime, Apple (APPL) and Amazon (AMZN) shares are down 3.5% and 1%,  respectively, with the former hit by a miss in sales in China and concern over tariffs. Apple revealed its earnings for Q1 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) coming at $1.65, above estimates of $1.62, and revenue of $95.36 billion, up from the $94.53 billion expected.

    Amazon’s stock edged down as cloud revenue growth disappointed. In its earnings report for Q1 2025, EPS rose to $1.59, up from the $1.38 forecast, and revenue increased by $155.7 billion above forecasts of $154.88. 

    Fed expected to cut rates

    Data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) shows the swaps market expects 88 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, as revealed by the December 2025 fed funds rate futures contract.

    Dow Jones price forecast

    The Dow Jones remains downwardly biased, though traders are testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 41,271. A daily close above the latter could extend the recovery past the 42,000 figure, with bulls targeting the 200-day SMA at 42,281.

    Conversely, if the Dow tumbles below 41,000, the first support would be the 40,000 mark ahead of the 20-day SMA of 39,705. Once cleared the next support would be the April 23 low of 39,486, ahead of the April 22 high of 39,271 that would close the gap witnessed between April 22 and 23.

    Dow Jones FAQs

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500.

    Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions.

    Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits.

    There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.



    Source link

  • Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 177,000 in April vs. 130,000 expected

    Nonfarm Payrolls rise by 177,000 in April vs. 130,000 expected


    Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) in the United States (US) rose by 177,000 in April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday. This reading followed the 185,000 increase (revised from 228,000) reported in March and came in better than the analysts’ estimate of 130,000.

    Follow our live coverage here

    Other details of the employment report showed that the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.2%, as expected, while the Labor Force Participation Rate ticked up to 62.6% from 62.5%. Finally, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings, held steady at 3.8%.

    “The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for February was revised down by 15,000, from +117,000 to +102,000, and the change for March was revised down by 43,000, from +228,000 to +185,000,” the BLS noted in its press release. “With these revisions, employment in February and March combined is 58,000 lower than previously reported.”

    Market reaction to US Nonfarm Payrolls data

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) edged slightly higher with the immediate reaction and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day near 100.00.

    US Dollar PRICE This week

    The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD 0.43% 0.30% 0.83% -0.28% -0.58% 0.30% -0.33%
    EUR -0.43% -0.18% 0.38% -0.72% -1.09% -0.13% -0.78%
    GBP -0.30% 0.18% 0.56% -0.53% -0.93% 0.04% -0.59%
    JPY -0.83% -0.38% -0.56% -1.07% -1.35% -1.91% -0.89%
    CAD 0.28% 0.72% 0.53% 1.07% -0.42% 0.57% -0.04%
    AUD 0.58% 1.09% 0.93% 1.35% 0.42% 0.97% 0.33%
    NZD -0.30% 0.13% -0.04% 1.91% -0.57% -0.97% -0.62%
    CHF 0.33% 0.78% 0.59% 0.89% 0.04% -0.33% 0.62%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

    This section below was published as a preview of the April Nonfarm Payrolls data at 06:00 GMT.

    • Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to rise by 130K in April, lower than the 228K gain reported in March.
    • The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the employment data on Friday at 12:30 GMT.
    • The US jobs report could significantly impact the odds of a June Fed rate cut, rocking the US Dollar.

    The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is due to publish the high-impact Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April on Friday at 12:30 GMT.

    The April employment report will be critical to affirm a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut in June amid prospects of US trade deals with its major Asian trading partners and an unexpected US economic contraction in the first quarter of this year.  The data could, therefore, have a strong bearing on the US Dollar (USD) performance in the near term.  

    In a NewsNation Town Hall interview early Thursday, US President Donald Trump said that he has “potential” trade deals with India, South Korea and Japan and that there is a very good chance of reaching an agreement with China.

    What to expect from the next Nonfarm Payrolls report?

    Economists expect the Nonfarm Payrolls to show a 130,000 job gain in April after recording a stellar 228,000 print in March. The Unemployment Rate (UE) is set to stay at 4.2% during the same period.

    Meanwhile, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), a closely watched measure of wage inflation, are expected to rise by 3.9% year-over-year (YoY) in April, following a 3.8% increase in March.

    Previewing the April employment report, TD Securities analysts said: “Job growth is likely to show no material signs of deterioration in April despite the spectre of high tariffs impacting economic conditions. Indeed, we expect payrolls to decelerate closer to its steady-state following the series’ noticeable jump in March.”

    “The UE rate is expected to stay unaltered at 4.2%, while wage growth likely lost some momentum, posting a 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) increase,” they added.

    How will US April Nonfarm Payrolls affect EUR/USD?

    The US Dollar is looking to extend its recovery stint against its major currency rivals as easing trade tensions continue to underpin risk sentiment, outweighing the negative impact from this week’s important US economic data releases.

    The first estimate of the US annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) showed on Wednesday that the US economy contracted by an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter, due to a surge in imports as US firms frontloaded to get ahead of the US levies.

    Meanwhile, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 2.6% in March, down from the 3% increase reported in February. Earlier on Wednesday, the ADP report showed that the US private sector payrolls rose by just 62,000 for the month, the smallest gain since July 2024, down from 147,000 in March and missing the consensus forecast for an increase of 108,000.

    All these discouraging US data supported the case for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Fed in June, while a decision to keep rates steady at the current levels is fully priced for next week’s policy meeting. Markets continue predicting a total of four rate cuts by the end of the year, a potential indication that the Fed will prioritize economic growth over inflation.

    Last month, Fed policymakers remained wary about the US labor market outlook. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said he was worried about potential layoffs caused by trade uncertainty. Additionally, Fed Governor Christopher Waller told Bloomberg that it “wouldn’t surprise me to see more layoffs, higher unemployment,” adding that the “easiest place to offset tariff costs is by cutting payrolls.”

    Against this backdrop, the April jobs data will be closely scrutinized for any clarity on the state of the US labor market and hints on the Fed’s future interest rate moves.

    A reading below the 100,000 level could double down on the Fed’s easing prospects, reviving the USD downtrend while lifting Gold price back toward record highs. In case of an upside surprise of a reading above 200,000, Gold could continue its corrective decline as the data could push back against expectations of a June rate cut.

    Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD: 

    “The main currency pair threatens the key 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1256 in the lead-up to the NFP showdown. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) points lower while above the midline, suggesting that the pair remains at a critical juncture.”

    “Buyers must defend the 21-day SMA cap to retain the bullish bias. If that happens, a rebound toward the 1.1425 supply zone cannot be ruled out. Further up, the 1.1500 round number will come into play. Conversely, EUR/USD could drop sharply toward 1.1100 if the 21-day SMA gives way sustainably. The next healthy support levels are at the 1.1000 psychological barrier and the 50-day SMA at 1.0956.”

    Employment FAQs

    Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

    The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

    The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.



    Source link

  • Australian Dollar holds ground despite a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales MoM

    Australian Dollar holds ground despite a weaker-than-expected Retail Sales MoM


    • The Australian Dollar maintains its position despite a disappointing Retail Sales MoM for March.
    • The AUD may come under pressure as renewed fears of a global economic slowdown weigh on commodity markets.
    • Trump signaled potential trade agreements with India, Japan, and South Korea, and voiced optimism about reaching a resolution with China.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) is rebounding modestly against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, retracing some of the previous session’s losses. However, the AUD/USD pair remains vulnerable as falling metal prices weigh on sentiment. Key commodities such as iron ore, copper, and gold declined amid renewed concerns over a global economic slowdown, pressuring the commodity-linked Aussie Dollar.

    Adding to the pressure, signs of easing US trade tensions have supported the Greenback. Investor sentiment shifted after US President Donald Trump signaled potential trade deals with India, Japan, and South Korea, and expressed optimism about resolving tensions with China.

    Australia’s Retail Sales—a key indicator of consumer spending—increased by 0.3% month-over-month in March, up from a 0.8% rise in February (revised from 0.2%), according to data released Friday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). However, the figure fell short of market expectations, which had forecast a 0.4% gain.

    According to Bloomberg, China is considering renewed trade talks with the US. The Chinese Commerce Ministry noted that Washington has reached out to express interest in resuming negotiations. However, China is reportedly conducting an internal assessment and maintains that the US should correct its tariff-related actions, which it views as the unilateral trigger for the ongoing trade dispute.

    Australia heads to the polls this weekend, and the outcome presents several risks for the Australian Dollar. Current polling slightly favors incumbent Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, but the race remains tight. A key concern is the possibility of Albanese winning only a minority, forcing him to form a government with the support of the Greens and/or independents—raising the risk of more expansive fiscal policies and potential fiscal slippage. Another short-term risk is the potential for a delayed result, with no clear outcome emerging for several days after the vote.

    Meanwhile, inflationary pressures in Australia in early 2025 have weakened expectations of further monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, markets anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as policymakers prepare for possible economic fallout from the recently introduced US tariffs.

    Australian Dollar advances despite a stronger US Dollar due to cautious risk sentiment

    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is climbing for the fourth consecutive day, trading near 100.30 at the time of writing. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as investors look for insight into how tariffs may be impacting employment trends.
    • The Greenback is supported by cautious risk sentiment and yield dynamics. However, its broader gains remain limited as markets await Friday’s jobs data, particularly in light of softer-than-expected labor and manufacturing indicators.
    • The ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.7 in April from 49.0, indicating continued contraction in the sector. While still below the 50.0 expansion threshold, the reading was better than expectations of 48.0.
    • Initial Jobless Claims rose to 241,000 for the week ending April 26, above both the consensus forecast of 224,000 and the previous week’s revised figure of 223,000. Meanwhile, the Employment Index within the ISM survey showed a modest improvement, rising to 46.5 from 44.7. While still signaling declines in manufacturing employment, the pace of deterioration appears to be slowing.
    • US President Donald Trump, during a NewsNation Town Hall interview early Thursday, expressed optimism about a potential trade agreement with China, stating there is a “very good probability we’ll reach a deal.” Trump emphasized that any agreement with China must meet US conditions. He also mentioned the possibility of future trade deals with India, South Korea, and Japan, and noted that a deal with Ukraine was finalized earlier in the day.
    • The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday a trade surplus of AUD 6.9 billion for March, significantly surpassing expectations of AUD 3.13 billion and the revised February figure of AUD 2.85 billion (down from AUD 2.97 billion). The strong surplus was driven by a 7.6% rise in exports and a 2.2% decline in imports for the month.
    • On Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q1 2025, up from a 0.2% increase in Q4 2024 and exceeding market expectations of a 0.8% rise. On an annual basis, CPI climbed 2.4% in the first quarter, beating the forecast of 2.2%.
    • Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers noted that markets still anticipate further interest rate cuts. “The market expects more interest rate cuts after inflation figures,” he stated, adding that there’s “nothing in these numbers that would substantially alter market expectations.”
    • In China, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) slipped to 49.0 in April from 50.5 in March, falling short of the 49.9 consensus and indicating a return to contraction. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also softened, easing to 50.4 in April from 50.8 in March, below the expected 50.7.

    Australian Dollar finds support at 0.6400 near nine-day EMA

    The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6410 on Friday, maintaining a bullish bias on the daily chart. The pair continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably above 50—both suggesting sustained upward momentum.

    The AUD/USD pair could find immediate resistance at the recent four-month high of 0.6449, posted on April 29. A decisive break above this level could pave the way toward the five-month high at 0.6515.

    On the downside, initial support is located at the nine-day EMA at 0.6387, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6320. A breach below these levels could weaken the bullish outlook and may expose the pair to deeper losses, with the March 2020 low near 0.5914 as a distant bearish target.

    AUD/USD: Daily Chart

    Australian Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD 0.10% -0.00% 0.19% -0.09% -0.29% -0.24% 0.21%
    EUR -0.10% -0.09% 0.12% -0.18% -0.38% -0.31% 0.12%
    GBP 0.00% 0.09% 0.17% -0.07% -0.28% -0.21% 0.22%
    JPY -0.19% -0.12% -0.17% -0.28% -0.47% -0.42% 0.05%
    CAD 0.09% 0.18% 0.07% 0.28% -0.21% -0.13% 0.31%
    AUD 0.29% 0.38% 0.28% 0.47% 0.21% 0.07% 0.51%
    NZD 0.24% 0.31% 0.21% 0.42% 0.13% -0.07% 0.43%
    CHF -0.21% -0.12% -0.22% -0.05% -0.31% -0.51% -0.43%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

    Economic Indicator

    Retail Sales s.a. (MoM)

    The Retail Sales data, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in Australia. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.


    Read more.



    Source link

  • EUR/USD recovers as US Dollar struggles to extend recovery

    EUR/USD recovers as US Dollar struggles to extend recovery


    • EUR/USD rebounds to near 1.1330 as the USD Index struggles to break above the key level of 100.00.
    • The US Dollar faces pressure due to a weak US economic outlook in the face of Trump’s tariff policy.
    • ECB officials have warned that risks to inflation are skewed to the downside.

    EUR/USD flattens around 1.1330 during North American trading hours on Thursday. The major currency pair recovers its initial losses after sliding to near 1.1285 as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major peers, gives back some early gains after failing to extend its two-day recovery above the psychological level of 100.00.

    The outlook of the US Dollar (USD) looks grim given the unexpected contraction in the United States (US) Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), softer job growth, and US-China trade uncertainty. 

    Data released Wednesday showed that the US economy declined by 0.3% on an annualized basis as firms frontloaded imports from their foreign suppliers to avoid higher tariffs, which were announced by US President Donald Trump on the so-called “Liberation Day”. This is the first time in three years that the US has faced an economic contraction in a quarter.

    Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that the current GDP data “doesn’t fully reflect the real impact of new economic policies” by US President Trump, and warn of a “slower labor growth, a surge in inflation and a sharp slowdown in retail spending”.

    The US ADP reported on Wednesday that the private sector added 62K fresh workers in April, significantly lower than estimates of 108K and the prior release of 147K.

    Meanwhile, comments from White House officials have indicated that the US-China trade war will not be resolved in the near term. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated in an interview with Fox News on Wednesday that trade discussions with Beijing have not been initiated yet since the imposition of reciprocal tariffs, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported. Greer clarified that no official discussions with Beijing are “underway”.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD rebounds as Euro outperforms

    • The recovery move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by Euro’s (EUR) outperformance against its peers despite firming expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates in the June policy meeting. Traders have become increasingly confident that the ECB will reduce its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2% as many officials have warned about downside risks to Eurozone inflation.
    • ECB officials have expressed concerns that Eurozone inflation could undershoot the central bank’s target of 2%. Policymakers believe that growth will be hit badly by the fallout of tariffs by US President Trump and that its impact will be “net disinflationary” for the continent.
    • For fresh cues on inflation, investors await the preliminary Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for April, which will be released on Friday. According to the estimates, the headline HICP rose at a moderate pace of 2.1% on year, slightly lower than the 2.2% increase seen in March. In the same period, the core HICP, which excludes volatile components like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, is expected to have grown at a faster pace of 2.5% compared to the prior reading of 2.4%.
    • Ahead of the Eurozone HICP, the inflation data from its major member states have indicated that price pressures cooled down in Germany and France but remained stable in Spain and Italy.
    • Meanwhile, flash Eurozone Q1 GDP came in stronger-than-expected on both a quarterly and annual basis. Eurostat reported that the economy grew by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, higher than what economists had expected and the previous reading of 0.2%. However, the Q1 GDP data doesn’t yet reflect the impact of tariffs by US President Trump on automobiles.

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD 0.07% 0.07% 1.14% 0.13% 0.17% 0.20% 0.30%
    EUR -0.07% 0.00% 1.06% 0.02% 0.08% 0.13% 0.21%
    GBP -0.07% 0.00% 1.04% 0.05% 0.08% 0.13% 0.21%
    JPY -1.14% -1.06% -1.04% -1.02% -0.95% -0.97% -0.90%
    CAD -0.13% -0.02% -0.05% 1.02% 0.05% 0.07% 0.16%
    AUD -0.17% -0.08% -0.08% 0.95% -0.05% 0.04% 0.12%
    NZD -0.20% -0.13% -0.13% 0.97% -0.07% -0.04% 0.09%
    CHF -0.30% -0.21% -0.21% 0.90% -0.16% -0.12% -0.09%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD holds 1.1300

    EUR/USD strives to hold the key level of 1.1300 in Thursday’s European session. The pair bounces back after a mean-reversion to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.1250.

    The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls inside the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating that the bullish momentum is concluded for now. However, the upside bias still prevails.

    Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the 25 September high of 1.1214 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.

    US-China Trade War FAQs

    Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.

    An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.

    The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

    BRANDED CONTENT

    Finding the right broker for trading EUR/USD is crucial, and we’ve identified the top choices for this major currency pair. Read about their unique features to make an informed decision.



    Source link

  • AUD/USD with gains after soft US data

    AUD/USD with gains after soft US data


    • The AUD/USD pair trades higher around 0.6400, up 0.26% on the day.
    • US GDP data misses expectations, showing a contraction of 0.3% in Q1 2025.
    • Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June rise as weak data weighs on the USD.
    • Investors remain cautious ahead of key US data releases, including NFPs and GDP for Q1 2025.

    The AUD/USD pair saw a slight uptick as investors weighed weak United States (US) economic data, including a contraction in Q1 GDP. The market now expects potential Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, which have pressured the US Dollar (USD). Despite ongoing trade tensions and uncertainty, the Australian Dollar (AUD) performed well, with the pair trading near the 0.6400 level. The next key focus will be the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls and GDP data later this week.

    Daily digest market movers: Weak US GDP, tariff concerns persist

    • The AUD/USD pair rises after testing resistance near 0.6417, buoyed by weaker-than-expected US GDP.
    • President Donald Trump hints at trade talks with Canada, but uncertainty remains over US-China negotiations.
    • China’s weak manufacturing PMI adds to the risk-off sentiment, impacting commodity prices like copper.
    • The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers flat at 99.30, as traders await key economic data releases.
    • Personal consumption data shows modest growth, but the overall economic outlook remains uncertain.
    • The US labor market shows signs of slowdown, with ADP Employment data missing expectations.
    • Traders are closely watching the PCE inflation data, with markets pricing in potential rate cuts.
    • President Trump’s comments on tariffs and trade policy keep investors on edge, impacting the USD.
    • The DJIA drops 0.51% as the Q1 GDP contraction weighs on market sentiment.
    • The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains cautious on inflation, with softer CPI data increasing rate cut expectations.
    • Global uncertainty surrounding trade policies keeps market volatility elevated, particularly in the FX market.

    Technical Analysis: AUD/USD maintains bullish outlook despite US Dollar weakness

    The AUD/USD pair is showing a bullish signal, trading around 0.6400, up 0.26% on the day. The pair is currently positioned mid-range between 0.6356 and 0.6417. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral at 56.96, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicates a buy signal. The Awesome Oscillator is neutral at 0.0096. Short-term moving averages, including the 10-day SMA at 0.6391 and the 100-day SMA at 0.6281, support the bullish outlook. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6463 suggests a longer-term sell signal. Support levels are at 0.6391, 0.6377, and 0.6342, while resistance levels sit at 0.6409, 0.6411, and 0.6463.

    Tariffs FAQs

    Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

    Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

    There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

    During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.



    Source link

  • US Dollar steady ahead of first top data release for the first quarter

    US Dollar steady ahead of first top data release for the first quarter


    • The US Dollar trades marginally higher against most major currencies. 
    • President Trump lashed out at Fed’s Powell again during a rally in Detroit. 
    • The US Dollar Index is capped below the 100.00 round level ahead of key US data. 

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, edges slightly higher and trades at 99.40 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Greenback is not really going anywhere as investors stay on the sidelines against key data releases during the American session. United States (US) President Donald Trump signed an executive order to ease the tariff impact on car parts and, during a rally in Detroit, lashed out at Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell again, proclaiming Trump knows more about interest rates than Powell does. 

    On the economic calendar front, a general rehearsal will take place this Wednesday ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) preliminary reading for Q1  will already be a vital element to assess the first impact, if any, of the administration’s tariff policy. The reading could stoke recession fears in case it shows weak growth or even contraction, while it could fire up stock markets if the initial impact of tariffs and Trump’s presidency on growth proves to be rather limited.  

    Daily digest market movers: Calm before the storm, part 1

    • At 12:30 GMT, the preliminary reading of the first quarter for US Gross Domestic Product is to be released. Economists expect the US economy to have grown by a modest annualized rate of 0.4%, much slower than the 2.4% expansion seen in 2024’s fourth quarter. 
    • In that same time span, the monthly PCE data for March will also be released. The Monthly Core PCE is expected to come in at 0.1%, down from 0.4%. The monthly headline number is expected to fall to 0%, from 0.3% previously. 
    • Around 13:35 GMT, the Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for April is due. Expectations are for a further contraction to 45.5 from 47.6.
    • Equities are rather mixed, with overall losses to be reported. In the US, all futures are already pointing to red openings. After the US closing bell, Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG) will report earnings. 
    • The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the May’s meeting stands at 7.6% against a 92.4% probability of no change. The June meeting sees a 65.1% chance of a rate cut. 
    • The US 10-year yields trade around 4.15%, ticking lower for a second day in a row, with traders slowly but surely buying back into US bonds as rate cut bets are starting to pick up. 

    US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Steady for now

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) is starting to pick up from its low levels of 2025. Bulls are slowly starting to take back control of the chart. However, risk elements persist with the uncertainty and possible further deterioration of US data likely to cause the DXY to edge substantially lower. 

    On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 100.22, which supported the DXY back in September 2024, with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as a pivotal level throughout December 2023 and again as a base for the inverted head-and-shoulders (H&S) formation during the summer of 2024.

    On the other hand, the 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.

    US Dollar Index: Daily Chart

    US Dollar FAQs

    The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
    Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

    The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
    When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

    In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
    It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.



    Source link

  • USD/INR flat lines as India-Pakistan tensions rise in Kashmir

    USD/INR flat lines as India-Pakistan tensions rise in Kashmir


    • Indian Rupee steadies in Monday’s Asian session. 
    • Concerns over geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan weigh on the Indian Rupee. 
    • Rising foreign inflows and lower crude oil prices might help limit the INR’s losses. 

    The Indian Rupee (INR) holds steady on Monday. Rising tension with Pakistan could trigger a risk-off sentiment among traders, which might drag the Indian currency lower. The ceasefire violation along the Line of Control (LoC) came days after the Pahalgam terror attack, which killed 26 people, mostly tourists, in the Baisaran valley near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. 

    On the other hand, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) continued to buy Indian equities for the seventh consecutive day. This, in turn, might boost the local currency against the Greenback in the near term. Furthermore, the decline in Crude oil prices might contribute to the INR’s upside, as India is the third largest consumer of crude oil in the world. 

    The US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April will be published later on Monday. The preliminary reading of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) will be in the spotlight on Wednesday ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday. 

    Indian Rupee trades flat amid India-Pakistan tensions

    • Tensions between India and Pakistan are rising after Pakistan violated a ceasefire across the LoC after the Pahalgam terror attack. On Thursday night, hours after suspending the Simla Agreement of 1971, the Pakistan Army breached the truce along the LoC and began firing at various sites. The Indian Army has responded “effectively.”
    •  The Reserve Bank of India is expected to cut the Repo Rate to 5.50% by end-Q3 (vs. 5.75% in March poll), according to the Reuters poll.
    • US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs, per Reuters. Rollins added that there were ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.”
      US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US will be reasonable on tariffs, adding that markets are adjusting to tariff policy.  
    • The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment in April rose to 52.2 from 50.8 in the previous reading, better than the estimation of 50.8. Consumers’ inflation expectations for one year eased to 6.5% in April versus 6.7% prior.  

    USD/INR’s outlook remains bearish under the 100-day EMA

    The Indian Rupee trades flat on the day. The negative outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 41.00, supporting the sellers in the near term. 

    The lower limit of the descending trend channel at 84.80 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Extended losses could see a drop to 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.

    In the bullish case, the first upside barrier is located at 85.80, the 100-day EMA. If the pair breaks above this level, it could draw in more bullish pressure and push the pair toward 86.35, the upper boundary of the trend channel. 

     



    Source link

  • Australian Dollar loses ground due to rising expectations of RBA’s rate cut in May

    Australian Dollar loses ground due to rising expectations of RBA’s rate cut in May


    • The Australian Dollar remains under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens, supported by signs of easing US-China tensions.
    • China’s move to exempt certain US imports from its 125% tariffs has sparked some optimism for better trade relations.
    • The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period ahead of the May 7 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends loses for the second successive session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

    China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs on Friday, according to business sources. The move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world’s two largest economies might be drawing to a close.

    However, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, “China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs.” The spokesperson urged Washington to “stop creating confusion.”

    The AUD also faces headwinds as expectations are mounting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as economic uncertainties deepen and concerns over the global trade environment intensify.

    Australian Dollar falls as US Dollar gains ground amid easing US-China concerns

    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive day, trading near 99.60 at the time of writing. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is in blackout mode ahead of its May 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
    • US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also “very close.”
    • Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, remarked that it’s encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs. Hart noted that while exclusion lists for specific categories are reportedly in the works, no official announcements or policies have been released yet. Both China’s Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are currently gathering input on the matter.
    • The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the week ending April 19. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 222,000, slightly above expectations and up from the previous week’s revised figure of 216,000. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims declined by 37,000, falling to 1.841 million for the week ending April 12.
    • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged on Wednesday that current tariffs—145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods—are unsustainable and must be lowered for meaningful dialogue to begin.
    • National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, President Trump’s chief economic adviser, stated that the US Trade Representative (USTR) has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers. Hassett also noted that 18 written proposals have been received from these ministers. According to Hassett, China remains open to negotiations.
    • Westpac forecasted on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data-driven approach in recent quarters, making it difficult to predict its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.
    • A Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no “economic and trade negotiations” with US were underway and stressed that the US must “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” to pave the way for talks.
    • China’s Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariffs and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.

    Australian Dollar remains below 0.6400; resistance appears near nine-day EMA

    The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6390 on Monday, with the daily chart showing a bullish bias. The pair continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains firmly above the 50 level, suggesting sustained upward momentum.

    On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the recent four-month high of 0.6439, posted on April 22. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a rally toward the five-month high at 0.6515.

    Initial support is aligned at the nine-day EMA of 0.6367, followed by stronger support near the 50-day EMA at 0.6305. A sustained drop below these levels would weaken the bullish setup and could lead to deeper losses, with the March 2020 low near 0.5914 coming into view.

    AUD/USD: Daily Chart

    Australian Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD 0.08% 0.18% 0.01% 0.09% 0.24% 0.12% -0.16%
    EUR -0.08% 0.04% -0.08% -0.02% 0.06% 0.03% -0.26%
    GBP -0.18% -0.04% -0.13% -0.04% 0.00% -0.02% -0.29%
    JPY -0.01% 0.08% 0.13% 0.09% 0.27% -1.30% 0.09%
    CAD -0.09% 0.02% 0.04% -0.09% 0.04% 0.04% -0.23%
    AUD -0.24% -0.06% -0.01% -0.27% -0.04% -0.03% -0.32%
    NZD -0.12% -0.03% 0.02% 1.30% -0.04% 0.03% -0.28%
    CHF 0.16% 0.26% 0.29% -0.09% 0.23% 0.32% 0.28%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.



    Source link

  • Gold price climbs past ,300 on uncertainty about trade and weak USD

    Gold price climbs past $3,300 on uncertainty about trade and weak USD


    • Gold snaps two-day losing streak, gaining 1.5% on fresh trade war fears.
    • Trump softens tariff talk, but China denies negotiations and demands full rollback.
    • Fed rate cut bets rise as yields drop and economic uncertainty builds.

    Gold price snapped two days of losses on Thursday and rose $50, or more than 1.50%, amid renewed concerns about the US-China trade war. Even though US President Donald Trump softened his stance on sticking to 145% tariffs on Beijing, the XAU/USD trades at $3,338 after jumping off daily lows of $3,287.

    Market mood remains upbeat with Wall Street posting gains. Although traders seem relieved by Trump’s willingness to reach a deal with Beijing, China plays hardball and asks to cancel all “unilateral” US tariffs, clarifying that they have not held talks with the US government.

    Bullion prices advance underpinned by the plunge in US Treasury bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also feeling the pain after hitting four-day peaks against a basket of six currencies.

    US economic data witnessed the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the last week, which was aligned with estimates. Durable Goods Orders jumped sharply in March, sponsored by airplane orders.

    Meanwhile, a wave of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials grabbed the headlines. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated the Fed could act as soon as June if the data supports it but emphasized that uncertainty is weighing on business planning.

    Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed a similar tone, noting that while action in June remains on the table, rate cuts may be driven by a weakening labor market. Waller said, “rate cuts could come from rising unemployment.”

    Regarding the chances of the Fed reducing interest rates at the upcoming meeting, traders see a 94% chance of keeping them unchanged, according to Prime Market Terminal. Nevertheless, traders expect the Fed funds rate to end at 3.45%, equal to 86 basis points of easing (bps).

    Source: Prime Market Terminal

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price climbs boosted by weak US Dollar

    • The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has decreased by seven-and-a-half basis points, reaching 4.31%.
    • US real yields collapsed seven bps to 2.023%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.
    • US Durable Goods Orders soared in March from 0.9% to 9.2%, sponsored by aircraft bookings. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 19 rose by 222K as expected, up from 216K in the previous reading.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price uptrend resumes as buyers reclaim $3,300

    The Gold price uptrend resumed, yet buyers must clear the April 22 high of $3,386 to prevent sellers from dragging lower prices. The next key resistance level would be $3,400, followed by the $3,450 and the $3,500 figure.

    On the other hand, if XAU/USD tumbles below $3,300, this could open the door to test $3,200 ahead of the April 3 peak of $3,167. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,041.

    US-China Trade War FAQs

    Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living.

    An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies.

    The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.



    Source link

  • US Dollar stuck with a loss as US data starts to sour

    US Dollar stuck with a loss as US data starts to sour


    • The US Dollar halts decline and sees the DXY US Dollar Index trade around 0.50% lower. 
    • China says tariffs need to go first, before talks can start.  
    • The US Dollar Index remains capped below the 100.00 round level. 

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades lower, roughly 0.60% on Thursday. The knee-jerk reaction originates from United States (US) President Donald Trump and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Both individually said that no unilateral offer was made to China from the US to lower tariffs, while Trump said that reciprocal tariffs could be revisited if negotiations are not going the way the Trump administration wants them to go, Bloomberg reports. 

    On the economic calendar front, Durable Goods is painting a very split picture. The headline Durable Goods number is a whopping 10.4% surge against the previous 0.8% where a 2.0% was expected for March. Though, the caveat comes with the core Durable Goods where cars and transportations are left out, which sinks to 0%, a standstill, against the previous 0.7% and expected 0.2%..

    Daily digest market movers: US data is getting muddy

    • The Financial Times reports that China has called on the US to “completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures” if it wants trade talks on Thursday just hours before the US opening bell. Previous remarks and statements from the Trump administration on a possible trade deal with China are being labeled as ‘fake news’ by Beijing.
    • The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for March fell into contraction by -0.03, coming from 0.18. that same number got revised up to 0.24 for February.
    • The US Durable Goods for March and the Jobless Claims already came out as well:
      • Headline Durable Goods came in at a whopping 10.4%, beating the expected 2% and far up from 1% previously which got revised down to 0.9%. The Orders without Cars and Transportation fell to 0.0%, missing the 0.2% and far less than the 0.7% advance seen a month earlier.
      • Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in higher at 222,000, beating the estimate of 221,000 and up from 215,000 previously. Continuing Claims fell to 1.841 million, beating the 1.88 million estimate. 
    • Existing Home Sales data for March is starting to signal issues as sales dropped to 4.02 million units, a big miss from the 4.13 million expected and coming from 4.27 million in February.
    • Near 15:00 GMT, the Kansas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is expected. No forecast available with the previous number at 1.
    • Equities are in a good mood as geopolitical headlines are less active this Thursday, seeing equities overall be positive up to 1% on the day across Europe and the US.
    • The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting stands at 6.1% against a 93.9% probability of no change. The June meeting still has around a 58.7% chance of a rate cut. 
    • The US 10-year yields trade around 4.32% looking for direction as markets are facing some knee jerk reactions on the Trump comments. 

    US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Getting hard to read

    The US Dollar Index (DXY) is backing off again after a two-day recovery. It looks like the DXY will start to consolidate, trading in a tight range between 100.00 and 98.00. Traders are likely to be fed up with these constant knee-jerk reactions and could opt to look for other places to put their money, with Gold as the preferred sweet spot. 

    On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 99.58,  acting up again as a false break occurred Wednesday and Thursday. Should the US Dollar be able to turn positive again, look for 100.22 with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal of their return. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90.

    On the other hand, the 97.73 support is very close and could snap at any moment. Further below, a rather thin technical support comes in at 96.94, before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.

    US Dollar Index: Daily Chart

    Fed FAQs

    Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

    The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

    In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

    Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

    BRANDED CONTENT

    Finding the right broker for your trading strategy is essential, especially when specific features make all the difference. Explore our selection of top brokers, each offering unique advantages to match your needs.



    Source link

  • Gold shows signs of bullish exhaustion amid positive turnaround in risk sentiment

    Gold shows signs of bullish exhaustion amid positive turnaround in risk sentiment


    • Gold price rebounds from the Asian session trough as the USD stalls its recovery from a multi-year low.
    • The weakening investors’ confidence in the US economy and Fed rate cut bets weigh on the Greenback.
    • The optimism over easing US-China tensions remains supportive of the risk-on impulse and caps the XAU/USD pair.

    Gold price (XAU/USD) attracted dip-buyers in Asia on Wednesday, stalling its retreat from the $3,500 peak hit the day before. The attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery from a multi-year low faltered amid the weakening confidence in the US economy on the back of US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements. Apart from this, the prospects for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) prompt some intraday USD selling and turn out to be a key factor that helps revive demand for the non-yielding yellow metal.

    Meanwhile, Trump administration officials hinted at a potential de-escalation of the ongoing tariff dispute with China and fueled optimism about a trade deal. Adding to this Trump stepped back from his threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated he is open to the prospect of direct talks with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy, raising hopes for a ceasefire and further boosting investors’ appetite for riskier assets. This is evident from a sharp recovery across the global equity markets, which, in turn, is holding back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the safe-haven Gold price.

    Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls remain on the defensive amid hopes for a US-China trade deal

    • US equity indices rose sharply on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump backtracked on his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and said that he has no intention of firing him before the expiry of his term in May 2026.
    • Adding to this, upbeat comments from Trump administration officials about US-China trade talks further boosted investors’ confidence and prompted some profit-taking around the safe-haven Gold price following the recent record run.
    • US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the tariff war between the US and China would de-escalate soon. Later, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt told reporters that the Trump administration is setting the stage for a deal.
    • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that he had a positive attitude towards any peace initiatives. In response, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Tuesday that we are ready to sit down in any format after the ceasefire.
    • Meanwhile, Trump’s rapidly shifting stance on trade policies has eroded investors’ trust and weakened confidence in the US economy. This fails to assist the US Dollar in preserving modest Asian session gains and supports the XAU/USD pair.
    • Furthermore, the markets have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs at least three times by the end of this year, further benefiting the non-yielding yellow metal.
    • Traders now look forward to the release of global flash PMIs for a fresh insight into global economic health. This, along with trade-related developments, will influence the risk sentiment and provide some impetus to the precious metal.

    Gold price could extend the corrective slide from the all-time peak while below the 23.6% Fibo. level

    From a technical perspective, the precious metal now seems to have found acceptance below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s, or the monthly swing low. This, along with the lack of any further intraday buying, could be seen as initial signs of possible bullish exhaustion and supports prospects for further losses. However, oscillators on the daily chart are still holding comfortably in positive territory and warrant caution before placing aggressive bearish bets. Hence, any subsequent slide below the Asian session low, around the $3,315 area, is likely to find decent support and remain limited near the 38.2% Fibo. level, around the $3,289 region. That said, a convincing break below the latter should pave the way for some meaningful corrective fall in the near term.

    On the flip side, the $3,370 area (23.6% Fibo. level) now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the $3,400 mark. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the Gold price to the $3,424-3,425 horizontal resistance, above which bulls could make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter will set the stage for an extension of the recent well-established uptrend witnessed over the past four months or so.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



    Source link

  • Australian Dollar holds steady near 0.6400 despite renewed USD strength

    Australian Dollar holds steady near 0.6400 despite renewed USD strength


    • AUD/USD trades around the 0.6400 zone, holding gains despite US Dollar stabilization.
    • Concerns about a China-linked slowdown keep the Aussie under pressure, despite upbeat Q1 Chinese GDP.
    • Resistance emerges near 0.6420; short-term moving averages maintain bullish alignment.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades with a modestly bullish tone on Tuesday, consolidating near the 0.6400 region during North American trading hours. The pair has shown resilience despite a minor rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY), which bounced slightly from a three-year low as markets adjust to profit-taking after Monday’s steep USD decline. EUR/USD and GBP/USD have also eased from recent highs, while AUD/USD clings to a narrow daily range between 0.6377 and 0.6439.

    Investors remain cautious as the US-China trade dispute shows no signs of easing. Tensions escalated after the White House ordered a probe into potential tariffs on all mineral imports, prompting fears of supply chain disruptions. China responded with new export controls on key rare earth materials. Despite solid Q1 growth in China at 5.4% year-over-year and March’s strong industrial production and retail sales, the Aussie remains vulnerable due to its economic ties with Beijing. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is still expected to cut rates in May, further capping the upside.

    Daily digest market movers: USD rebounds, trade tensions and Fed political jitters ask for caution

    • US President Trump renewed pressure on Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell, accusing him of dragging the economy and calling for immediate rate cuts.
    • Fed independence concerns grow as markets digest reports of Trump exploring Powell’s dismissal before term completion.
    • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut global growth forecasts to 2.8% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, citing century-high US tariffs and policy uncertainty.
    • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index slipped further to -13 in April, its weakest reading since November.
    • Trump’s trade policies have increased headline inflation risk by up to one percentage point, according to IMF estimates.
    • Investors remain wary as the Fed independence debate and tariff uncertainty threaten to undermine USD credibility in the longer term.

    Technical analysis: AUD/USD retains bullish bias amid narrow range

    The AUD/USD pair maintains a constructive technical outlook despite slipping slightly during the session. The price action is holding within the 0.6377 to 0.6439 daily range, with short-term indicators suggesting further upside potential if support zones hold. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 58.6700, indicating neutral momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) continues to issue a buy signal, underlining sustained bullish momentum.

    The Stochastic %K at 94.4800 and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at 99.8800 both hover in neutral zones, not yet signaling exhaustion. Importantly, all short-term Simple Moving Averages (SMA)—including the 10-day at 0.6329, 20-day at 0.6266, and 100-day at 0.6286—as well as the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6336, align to support upward movement. However, the 200-day SMA at 0.6474 represents a key medium-term resistance and may limit any aggressive bullish extension.

    Immediate support is seen at 0.6336, followed by 0.6332 and 0.6329. On the upside, resistance is expected around 0.6413, then 0.6423, with stronger pressure awaiting near 0.6474. As long as the Aussie remains above the 0.6330 handle, short-term sentiment stays in favor of buyers.

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.



    Source link

  • EUR/USD recovers as US Dollar struggles to extend recovery

    EUR/USD holds onto gains as Trump assaults Fed’s autonomy


    • EUR/USD sticks to gains near 1.1500 as the US Dollar has been battered by Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence.
    • Trump blames Fed Powell for the potential US economic slowdown.
    • The ECB is expected to cut interest rates in June due to escalating downside risks to Eurozone inflation.

    EUR/USD trades firmly around 1.1500 during European trading hours on Tuesday. The major currency pair is taking a sigh of relief after a strong rally in the last few weeks. The pair seems to be gearing up for a fresh upward move as the US Dollar (USD) is expected to continue facing the burden of growing tensions between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and United States (US) President Donald Trump over the monetary policy.

    The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, aims to find a cushion after refreshing a three-year low near 98.00.

    US President Trump continues to criticize Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not lowering interest rates and warned that the economy could face a downturn if they are not reduced immediately. 

    “With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation, but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW,” Trump wrote in a post on TruthSocial on Monday.

    Meanwhile, Jerome Powell has been supporting keeping interest rates in the current range of 4.25%-4.50% until it becomes clear whether inflation led by new economic policies is persistent or short-lived. 

    US President Trump has also threatened to remove Powell over a year before the completion of his term for not lowering interest rates. It is still debatable whether Donald Trump can sack Powell, but the situation will remain the same as the decision on borrowing rates will be eventually taken by other Fed members, and none of them has spoken out about easing the monetary policy immediately.

    The signs of political interference in the operations of the Fed, which is an autonomous institution, have led to a steep decline in the safe-haven status of the US Dollar. Investors doubt the credibility of the US Dollar and US assets under the threat of Trump’s attack on the Fed’s independence.

    Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD remains firm at US Dollar’s expense

    • EUR/USD clings to gains near 1.1500 at the expense of the US Dollar, whose safe-haven status has been questioned due to events of ever-changing tariff headlines by Donald Trump and his feud with Fed Powell. Trump announced a 90-day pause in executing reciprocal tariffs after getting responses from his trading partners to make a fair deal. However, the intact trade war between the US and China has kept the US Dollar on the backfoot.
    • The impact of the intensified trade war between the world’s two largest powerhouses has battered the global economic outlook, including the US, given that American importers will bear the burden of higher tariffs, which they will pass on to consumers. Such a scenario will diminish households’ purchasing power significantly.
    • During European trading hours, the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously as traders have become increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) could cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting. ECB dovish bets have swelled on increasing downside risks to Eurozone inflation amid fears of global economic turmoil.
    • Analysts at Citi anticipated price growth of 1.6% next year and 1.8% in 2027 last week before the ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday. These predictions came before the ECB’s monetary policy announcement, in which the central bank reduced its key borrowing rates for the seventh time in the current monetary easing cycle and guided a grim economic outlook.
    • In the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that downside risks for the Eurozone economy have increased. Lagarde said that the economic outlook is “clouded by uncertainty” as trade disruptions would weigh on “business investment.”
    • Going forward, the next trigger for the Euro will be the preliminary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data of the Eurozone and its nations for April, which will be released on Wednesday.

    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD trades firmly near 1.1500

    EUR/USD grips gains near 1.1500 in Tuesday’s European session. The major currency pair strengthened after a breakout above the April 11 high of 1.1474. Advancing 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.0850 suggests a strong upside trend.

    The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to overbought levels around 75.00, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.

    Looking up, the round-level figure of 1.1600 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls.

    Euro FAQs

    The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

    The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

    Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

    Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

    Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

    BRANDED CONTENT

    Finding the right broker for trading EUR/USD is crucial, and we’ve identified the top choices for this major currency pair. Read about their unique features to make an informed decision.



    Source link

  • Gold price explores past ,400 as Trump-Powell clash sparks Fed independence fears

    Gold price explores past $3,400 as Trump-Powell clash sparks Fed independence fears


    • Gold hits fresh all-time high as Trump attacks Powell, calling him “a major loser” for delaying rate cuts.
    • DXY plunges to 97.92 as Fed independence is questioned and stagflation risks remain in focus.
    • Traders brace for key Fed speeches this week from Jefferson, Harker, and Kashkari amid growing policy uncertainty.

    Gold price begins the week on a higher note, gaining over 2.56% and refreshing a previous record high as the precious metal hits $3,430 on uncertainty about comments that threat to curtail the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. At the time of writing,  XAU/USD trades at $3,419 after hitting a daily low of $3,329.

    Demand for bullion has increased as United States (US) President Donald Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called him a “major loser” and said he is always too late to reduce borrowing costs.

    Last week, Powell said the US central bank is in wait-and-see mode and even flagged the chance of a stagflationary scenario, acknowledging, “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.”

    Growing tensions between Trump and Powell, along with controversial trade policies, weighed on the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), has fallen to three-year lows of 97.92.

    Data-wise, the US economic docket is absent, though it would gather traction mainly supported by Fed speakers. Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Neel Kashkari are all set to deliver remarks on Tuesday.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price soars to record high amid high US yields

    • The US 10-year Treasury yield rises four basis points to 4.373% yet fails to cap Bullion prices.
    • US real yields followed suit, climbing three and a half bps to 2.14%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields
    • In rates markets, money market traders have priced in 94.5 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.
    • Data-wise, this week the US economic docket will be packed by a flurry of Fed speakers, S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price poised to challenge $3,450 in the near term

    The uptrend in Gold prices remains in play, even with the chance of testing the $3,500  level touted by Citi to be reached in the next three months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned overbought, an indication that the precious metal could be set for a pullback, but a breach of the latest peak suggests that bulls could reach $3,450 in the near term.

    Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below $3,400, the first support would be the April 17 high of $3,357, followed by $3,300.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.



    Source link

  • Gold price loses momentum on profit-taking 

    Gold price loses momentum on profit-taking 


    • Gold price edges lower in Friday’s Asian session, pressured by profit-taking. 
    • Mounting uncertainty about tariffs and recession fears could boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Gold price. 
    • Fed’s Daly is set to speak later on Friday. 

    The Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady on Friday after retreating from an all-time high of $3,358 as investors book profits during a long Easter weekend. Significant uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imports into the US and ongoing geopolitical tensions could underpin the Gold price, which is known as a safe haven asset.

    On the other hand, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell turned hawkish, reducing the likelihood of a Fed rate reduction in June. This, in turn, could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. Powell said that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the Fed’s goals and make a stagflationary scenario possible. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Mary Daly is scheduled to speak later on Friday. Trading volume is likely to be lightened on Good Friday.

    Gold price edges lower on Good Friday

    • “Gold remains heavily supported by a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements and fears about a global recession,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at online trading broker FXTM.
    • The US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 dropped to 215K, according to the US Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday. This figure came in below initial estimates and was lower than the previous week of 224K (revised from 223K).
    • Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending April 5 went up by 41K to 1.885M versus 1.844M prior (revised from 1.85M). 
    • The US Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. Meanwhile, Housing Starts declined to 1.324M in March from 1.494M in February (revised from 1.501M). 
    • Money market traders have priced in nearly 86 bps of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    Gold price bullish bias lingers, overbought RSI warrants caution for bulls

    Gold price trades on a flat note on the day. The precious metal keeps the bullish vibe on the daily timeframe, characterized by the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average. Nonetheless, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves above the 70.00 mark, indicating overbought conditions and warranting some caution. This suggests that further consolidation or a temporary sell-off is on the cards. 

    On the bright side, the immediate resistance level to watch is $3,355, the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Sustained trading above the mentioned level could pave the way to the $3,400 psychological level. 

    In the bearish case, the low of April 18 at $3,230 acts as an initial support level for XAU/USD. Further south, the next contention level is seen at $3,105, the low of April 2.  

    Tariffs FAQs

    Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.

    Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.

    There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.

    During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.



    Source link

  • Australian Dollar strengthens as Trump confirms talks with China

    Australian Dollar strengthens as Trump confirms talks with China


    • The Australian Dollar appreciates as the US Dollar softens amid rising economic concerns.
    • Trump struck an optimistic tone, suggesting a trade deal with China could be finalized within three to four weeks.
    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a weak economy combined with sustained inflation could heighten the risk of stagflation.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its rally that began on April 9, with the AUD/USD pair gaining ground as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs on the United States (US). Market participants are closely monitoring developments in US trade negotiations, although trading activity is expected to be subdued due to the Good Friday holiday.

    On late Thursday, US President Donald Trump stated that China had made multiple overtures and added, “I don’t want to go higher on China tariffs. If China tariffs go higher, people won’t buy.” Trump expressed optimism that a trade agreement with China could be reached within three to four weeks.

    The AUD received a boost after President Trump announced exemptions for key technology products from the newly proposed “reciprocal” tariffs. These exemptions—covering items such as smartphones, computers, semiconductors, solar cells, and flat-panel displays—favor goods predominantly produced in China, Australia’s largest trading partner and a significant consumer of its commodity exports.

    Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) March 31–April 1 Meeting Minutes indicated ongoing uncertainty around the timing of the next interest rate adjustment. Although the Board considered the May meeting a suitable point to review monetary policy, it stressed that no decisions had been made in advance. The Board also pointed to both upside and downside risks facing Australia’s economy and inflation trajectory.

    Australian Dollar appreciates as US Dollar struggles amid rising economic concerns

    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is trading lower at around 99.30 at the time of writing. However, the US Dollar found some support following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who warned that a sluggish economy paired with persistent inflation could challenge the Fed’s objectives and raise the risk of stagflation.
    • According to the CME FedWatch tool, money market traders are currently pricing in around 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first reduction anticipated in July.
    • On the labor front, the US Department of Labor reported Thursday that Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending April 12, below expectations and down from the previous week’s revised figure of 224,000 (originally 223,000). However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 41,000 to 1.885 million for the week ending April 5.
    • The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in March, down from 2.8% in February and below the market forecast of 2.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.8% annually, compared to 3.1% previously and missing the 3.0% estimate. On a monthly basis, headline CPI dipped by 0.1%, while core CPI edged up by 0.1%.
    • Australia’s Unemployment Rate rose to 4.1% in March, slightly below the market forecast of 4.2%. Meanwhile, Employment Change came in at 32.2K, against the consensus forecast of 40K.
    • Australia’s Westpac Leading Index’s six-month annualised growth rate, which forecasts economic momentum relative to the trend over the next three to nine months, eased to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February.
    • China’s Foreign Ministry stated on Thursday that if the United States continues to engage in tariff-related provocations, China will simply disregard them.
    • China’s economy grew at an annual rate of 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, matching the pace seen in Q4 2024 and surpassing market expectations of 5.1%. On a quarterly basis, GDP rose by 1.2% in Q1, following a 1.6% increase in the previous quarter, falling short of the forecasted 1.4% gain.
    • Meanwhile, China’s Retail Sales surged 5.9% year-over-year, beating expectations of 4.2% and up from February’s 4%. Industrial Production also outperformed, rising 7.7% compared to the 5.6% forecast and February’s 5.9% print.

    Australian Dollar could test psychological 0.6400 level near four-month highs

    The AUD/USD pair is hovering near 0.6390 on Friday, with daily chart indicators pointing to a bullish bias. The pair is holding above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the neutral 50 mark—both supporting continued upward momentum.

    To the upside, the AUD/USD pair could find key resistance at the psychological 0.6400 level, followed by the four-month high of 0.6408, last reached on February 21.

    On the downside, initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 0.6311, with additional support at the 50-day EMA near 0.6283. A break below these levels could weaken the short-term bullish outlook and open the door for a deeper decline toward the 0.5914 zone—its lowest level since March 2020.

    AUD/USD: Daily Chart

    Australian Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

    USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD -0.14% -0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% 0.00% 0.00%
    EUR 0.14% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    GBP 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    JPY 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.09% -0.12% -0.16%
    CAD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% -0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
    AUD -0.04% 0.00% 0.00% -0.09% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
    NZD 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.12% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
    CHF 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.16% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

    Australian Dollar FAQs

    One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

    The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

    China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

    Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

    The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.



    Source link