Tag: Stocks

  • Job Data and US-China Rapprochement Fuel Dollar Rebound Prospects

    Job Data and US-China Rapprochement Fuel Dollar Rebound Prospects


    Risk sentiment improved last week, driven by the solid US non-farm payroll report that helped ease fears of a deepening slowdown. Adding to the optimism was a thaw in US-China relations. While no concrete breakthrough emerged, the fact that both sides were willing to engage again offered some relief to global markets weary of tariff escalations.

    Dollar capitalized on this shift late in the week, rebounding after a string of weak data had previously weighed on sentiment. Although the greenback still finished as the second worst performer for the week, the technical picture points to scope for a near-term bounce.

    By contrast, Yen was the worst performer, pressured by improving risk appetite and technical breakouts in crosses, with further weakness likely if sentiment remains supported. Swiss Franc also underperformed, dragged down not just by reduced demand for safe-haven assets but also by a negative inflation print, which solidified expectations of another SNB rate cut this month.

    In the middle of the pack were Euro and Loonie. Both ECB and BoC delivered rate decisions in line with expectations. ECB cut by 25bps and BoC held steady. Yet, their respective advances against Dollar faded as improving trade prospects and rebounding US yields provided a floor for the greenback.

    NFP Rescues Sentiment, Fed Cut Bets Recede Further

    After a week dominated by downbeat US data—particularly the contractionary ISM manufacturing and services, sentiment got a needed boost from May’s non-farm payrolls. While hiring did slow, the headline print of 139k jobs, paired with a steady unemployment rate and stronger-than-expected wage growth, helped restore some confidence in the durability of the US labor market.

    For now, the economy appears to be holding up reasonably well against the growing cloud of tariff uncertainty. Rather than crumbling under pressure, the labor market continues to show resilience, suggesting the real economic drag from trade tensions may not fully materialize until later in the year—if at all.

    In response, market pricing for Fed policy has shifted. A rate hold at the June FOMC meeting is now virtually assured. Fed fund futures currently show an 83% chance of no change in July, up from 74% a week ago. September pricing has also adjusted notably, with odds of a hold rising to nearly 40%, from just 28% last week.

    This shift in expectations aligns with the more cautious wing of the Fed. As Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari recently explained, two camps have emerged within the FOMC. One favors looking through tariff-induced price shocks as temporary and advocates rate cuts to support growth. The other sees a more prolonged inflation threat from drawn-out trade disputes and retaliatory measures, suggesting policy caution is warranted.

    Fed Governor Adriana Kugler has added detail to this latter view, identifying three channels through which tariffs may embed inflation. First, she cautioned that higher short-run inflation expectations may give firms more pricing power, extending inflation’s lifespan. Second, “opportunistic pricing” could allow businesses to raise prices even on goods unaffected by tariffs. Finally, she warned that reduced productivity, stemming from cost pressures and weakened investment, could feed longer-term inflation.

    For now, the labor market’s endurance gives the inflation-hawk camp more credibility.

    Renewed US-China Trade Talks Offer Glimmer of Hope

    Signs of thawing in US-China tensions added some additional cautious optimism. The long-awaited phone call between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping finally took place last week, breaking weeks of silence and geopolitical posturing. More critically, the conversation was not just symbolic—it quickly translated into concrete steps, including a formal resumption of trade negotiations.

    Trump announced that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet Chinese counterparts in London on Monday for renewed trade talks. The resumption of dialogue is a modest but meaningful shift away from the stalemate that has plagued relations.

    Adding to the sense of tentative de-escalation, Beijing has quietly taken steps to ease the pressure on US supply chains. According to a Reuters report, China granted temporary export licenses to rare-earth suppliers servicing the top three US automakers. This comes after Beijing’s April decision to restrict exports of rare earths and magnets—critical inputs for automotive, aerospace, and tech industries—sparked widespread supply chain disruptions.

    The impact of these restrictions is already visible. Ford recently suspended production of its Explorer SUV at its Chicago plant for a week due to a rare-earth shortage. That incident highlights how deeply reliant advanced manufacturing has become on these materials—and how easily geopolitical leverage can disrupt production cycles. Beijing’s decision to grant temporary relief may signal a tactical concession ahead of negotiations, without altering its broader strategic posture.

    Wall Street Ends Higher But Rally May Stall at Key Levels

    Despite ending the week on a positive note, major US stock indexes are showing signs of fatigue, with momentum staying unconvincing. Any further gains are likely to face stiff resistance ahead. Meanwhile, Dollar Index continued to struggle to breakout from recently established range. There is room for a bounce in Dollar as the near term consolidation is set to extend.

    DOW’s rise from 36611.78 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 45073.63 high. While further rally might be seen, upside should be limited by 45073.63 to bring near term reversal. Also, considering that D MACD is now staying below signal line, firm break of 41352.09 support will at least indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pullback.

    NASDAQ’s picture is similar. Rise from 14784.03 is seen as the second leg of the consolidation pattern from 20204.58. While further rally might be seen, strong resistance should emerge from 20204.58 to bring near term reversal. Considering that D MACD is staying below signal line, firm break of 18599.68 support will at least indicate short term toping, and bring deeper pullback.

    Dollar index struggled to find decisive momentum to break through 97.92 low. Price action from there are seen as a corrective pattern to the decline from 110.17. Break of 100.54 resistance will indicate that the third leg of the consolidations has started, and target 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60.

    BoC Hold, ECB Cuts, EUR/CAD Ranges

    Two major central banks, BoC and ECB, delivered expected decisions last week. BoC left its overnight rate unchanged at 2.75% for the second straight meeting, as policymakers await greater clarity on the impact of global trade negotiations. While markets expect easing to resume later this year, the timing remains unclear. The central bank appears willing to act in the second half of the year but is seeking more definitive economic data before committing to further policy moves.

    Meanwhile, ECB followed through with a 25bps rate cut, lowering its deposit rate to 2.00%. After the meeting, a number of Governing Council members hinted at a possible pause in July. Some Governing Council members went further, suggesting the ECB may have already “won the battle” against inflation. With the policy rate now considered deep in neutral territory, the threshold for additional easing has risen substantially, especially amid persistent global trade and geopolitical risks.

    Technically, EUR/CAD continued to gyrate inside established range last week, as consolidation pattern from 1.5959 extended. Another dip cannot be ruled out in the near term. But downside should be contained by 1.5402 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.4483 to 1.5959 at 1.5395 to bring rebound. On the upside, break of 1.5759 resistance will bring retest of 1.5959 high.

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

    EUR/USD edged higher to 1.1494 last week but lost momentum again. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. Price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0716. While rebound from 1.1064 might extend, strong resistance should emerge from 1.1572 to limit upside. On the downside, break of 1.1356 support will argue that the correction is already in the third leg, and target 1.1209 support for confirmation.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0875) holds.

    In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1278) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.



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  • Markets Eye NFP as Trump-Xi Call Fails to Lift Sentiment

    Markets Eye NFP as Trump-Xi Call Fails to Lift Sentiment


    There was a fleeting uptick in sentiment overnight after US President Donald Trump spoke by phone with Chinese President Xi Jinping, calling the conversation “very positive” and announcing renewed lower-level trade talks. However, the initial optimism quickly faded, with major US indexes reversing early gains to end the session lower.

    The Chinese readout was more cautious, stressing that the US should “withdraw negative measures” and warning Washington to handle Taiwan “prudently.” The divergence in tone reinforces the sense that the two sides remain far apart. The agreement to more talks appears to be little more than a tactical delay rather than genuine progress.

    Elsewhere, US Treasury called on BoJ to continue policy tightening to support a normalization of Yen and correct bilateral trade imbalances. The statement, part of the Treasury’s semiannual currency report, suggested Tokyo had more to do on the policy front.

    However, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato offered a restrained response, reiterating that monetary decisions lie with the BOJ and avoiding direct comment on the US call for further tightening. Yen, meanwhile, barely reacted, continuing its technical consolidation as it drifts slightly lower against Dollar.

    In currency markets, Dollar remains the worst performer of the week heading into Friday’s crucial non-farm payrolls release. With a string of weak labor-related indicators earlier this week—ADP, ISM employment components, and initial claims—markets are bracing for a soft headline. Yen and Swiss Franc are also lagging this week, underperforming alongside the greenback

    On the other hand, Kiwi leads the pack, while Aussie and Sterling also posted modest gains Euro and Loonie Dollar are positioning in the middle. However, all these standings remain subject to sharp realignment depending on the tone of the upcoming US employment data and its interplay with broader market sentiment.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 0.51%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.09%. China Shanghai SSE is down -0.06%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.16%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is flat at 1.462. Overnight, DOW fell -0.25%. S&P 500 fell -0.53%. NASDAQ fell -0.83%. 10-year yield rose 0.029 to 4.394.

    Looking ahead, Germany will release industrial production and trade balance in European session. Swiss will publish foreign currency reserves while Eurozone will release retail sales and GDP revision. Later in the day, Canada will also release job data along with US non-farm payrolls.

    US NFP: Muted Hiring or Major Miss?

    Markets are awaiting today’s US non-farm payrolls release, with little doubt that hiring had slowed meaningfully in May amid heightened tariff threats and elevated uncertainty. The key question now is just how sharp the slowdown was.

    Consensus forecasts see NFP at 130K, unemployment steady at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% mom. Recent labor indicators have painted a dismal picture. ADP private employment came in at just 37k, a stark miss. ISM Manufacturing employment stayed subdued at 46.8 and the Services component barely rose back into expansion territory at 50.7. Meanwhile, 4-week average of jobless claims has crept up to 235k.

    While a modest softening in job growth would likely be tolerated as a natural response to macro headwinds, any significant downside surprise could reignite recession fears. An NFP reading below 100K could provoke a sharp risk-off response in equities. However, such a result would likely weigh further on Dollar, as markets would begin pricing in earlier Fed rate cuts in response to labor market deterioration.

    Technically, S&P 500 extended the near term rise from 4835.04 this week, but continued to lose upside momentum as seen in D MACD. This rise is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 6147.43. Hence, while further rise cannot be ruled out, given that S&P 500 is now close to 6000, upside potential is limited. On the other hand, break of 5767.41 support will signal that a short term top was already formed. Deeper pull back should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 4835.04 to 5999.70 at 5554.79, with risk of bearish reversal.

    Fed’s Kugler: Tariffs may entrench inflation via expectations, pricing power, and productivity

    Fed Governor Adriana Kugler cautioned that disinflation “has slowed” and that tariffs are beginning to exert upward pressure on prices, a trend she expects to continue into 2025. Speaking overnight, Kugler emphasized that the balance of risks has tilted, with “greater upside risks to inflation” now emerging, even as downside risks to employment and growth loom on the horizon. As a result, she reaffirmed support for holding the current policy rate steady.

    Kugler outlined three channels through which tariffs could entrench inflationary pressures. First, she noted that rising short-term inflation expectations may grant businesses “more leeway to raise prices”, thereby increasing inflation persistence.

    Second, she flagged the risk of “opportunistic pricing”, where firms use tariff headlines as cover to hike prices even on unaffected goods. This, combined with higher costs on intermediate goods, could generate “second-round effects” on inflation.

    The third concern relates to “lower productivity”. As firms contend with elevated input costs and weaker demand, they may reduce capital investment and resort to less efficient production methods, reinforcing inflationary pressure through lower productivity.

    Fed’s Schmid: Tariff impact uncertain, policy must stay nimble

    Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid acknowledged in a speech overnight that monetary theory may suggest to “looking through a one-time price shock”, he would be “uncomfortable staking the Fed’s reputation and credibility on theory alone.”

    Despite the expected drag from tariffs, Schmid remains “optimistic” about the economy’s momentum. However, he acknowledged that both the inflationary and growth implications of tariffs are highly uncertain.

    As a result, he argued that Fed will “need to remain nimble”, and be prepared to adjust its stance as needed to maintain both price stability and maximum employment.

    USD/CAD Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3645; (P) 1.3665; (R1) 1.3694; More…

    Intraday bias in USD/CAD stays on the downside as decline from 1.4791 is in progress. . Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.4414 to 1.3749 from 1.4014 at 1.3603. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 1.3349. On the upside, above 1.3741 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.4791 medium term top could either be a correction to rise from 1.2005 (2021 low), or trend reversal. In either case, further decline is expected as long as 1.4014 resistance holds. Firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending Y/Y Apr -0.10% 1.50% 2.10%
    05:00 JPY Leading Economic Index Apr P 103.4 104 104.1 108.1
    06:00 EUR Germany Industrial Production M/M Apr -0.90% 3.00%
    06:00 EUR Germany Trade Balance (EUR) Apr 20.2B 21.1B
    07:00 CHF Foreign Currency Reserves (CHF) May 703B
    09:00 EUR GDP Q/Q Q1 F 0.40% 0.30%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Employment Change Q/Q Q1 F 0.30% 0.30%
    09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Apr 0.20% -0.10%
    12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment May -11.9K 7.4K
    12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate May 7.00% 6.90%
    12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls May 130K 177K
    12:30 USD Unemployment Rate May 4.20% 4.20%
    12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M May 0.30% 0.20%

     



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  • Trade Tensions Drag Dollar While Oil Jumps on OPEC+ Hold

    Trade Tensions Drag Dollar While Oil Jumps on OPEC+ Hold


    Risk sentiment remains fragile as the US session gets underway, with equity markets under pressure from renewed tariff threats. European stocks are particularly heavy after US President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on imported steel. UK equities, however, are finding some support from Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s announcement of increased defense spending.

    In the currency markets, Dollar is under broad pressure, currently the weakest performer of the day as traders react to the heightened trade uncertainty again. Loonie and Swiss Franc are also underperforming. Kiwi leads gains, followed by Yen and Aussie. Sterling and Euro sit in the middle.

    Meanwhile, oil prices have jumped after OPEC+ confirmed it would maintain output increases in July at pace of 411k barrels per day. Markets had been wary of a possible larger hike, as hinted by sources late last week. That outcome would have likely sparked a sharp bearish gap on Monday’s open. The restraint from OPEC+ has thus supported a modest rebound in crude.

    Technically, despite the rebound, WTI crude remains capped below key cluster resistance at 65.24 (38.2% retracement of 81.01 to 55.20 at 65.05. As long as this resistance zone holds, outlook will stay bearish for down trend resumption through 55.20 at a later stage. Nevertheless, firm break of 65.05/24 would bring strong rally to 61.8% retracement at 71.15, with risk of bullish trend reversal.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.08%. DAX is down -0.45%. CAC is down -0.58%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.025 at 4.674. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.036 at 2.541. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -1.30%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.57%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.10%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.004 to 1.509.

    UK PMI manufacturing finalized at 46.4, with tentative signs of stabilization

    UK manufacturing activity remained in contraction in May, with PMI finalized at 46.4, up modestly from April’s 45.4.

    The data indicate that the sector continues to face “major challenges,” according to S&P Global’s Rob Dobson, citing turbulent domestic and global conditions, trade uncertainty, subdued client confidence, and increased wage costs tied to tax changes.

    Still, there are early signs that the worst of the downturn may be easing. The indexes for output and new orders have risen for two consecutive months and were stronger than the initial flash estimates, hinting at possible stabilization.

    However, Dobson warned that the sector could either steady or slip further depending on how trading conditions evolve in the coming months.

    Eurozone PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.4, recovery progressing

    Eurozone PMI manufacturing was finalized at 49.4 in May, up from April’s 49.0 and marking the highest level in 33 months.

    Production increased across all four major economies: Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, supporting economist Cyrus de la Rubia’s view that the recovery is gaining traction.

    De la Rubia also noted that output has now risen for three straight months, reinforcing the view that the recovery is gaining traction. Historical data suggests a 72% chance of another output increase next month.

    Falling input costs, driven by lower energy prices, have enabled manufacturers to cut selling prices again, offering the ECB more flexibility for its expected interest rate cuts.

    However, the outlook remains clouded by external risks, particularly the threat of higher US tariffs on EU goods. Any escalation in transatlantic trade tensions could quickly derail the fragile rebound.

    Swiss GDP grew 0.5% in Q1, pharma exports surge on tariff frontloading

    Switzerland’s GDP expanded by 0.5% qoq in Q1, beating market expectations of 0.4% qoq. When adjusted for the impact of major sporting events, GDP growth came in even stronger at 0.8% qoq. The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs noted that the services sector posted broad-based gains and domestic demand remained firm, contributing to the overall solid performance.

    A standout was the chemical and pharmaceutical sector, which surged 7.5% in the quarter, driven by a sharp rise in pharmaceutical exports. This lifted overall manufacturing output by 2.1% and goods exports by 5.0%. Notably, exports to the US jumped significantly, suggesting possible front-loading in anticipation of evolving US trade policy.

    Japan’s PMI manufacturing finalized at 49.5, firms eye recovery despite trade headwinds

    Japan’s PMI Manufacturing was finalized at 49.5 in May, up from April’s 48.7. S&P Global’s Annabel Fiddes noted that business conditions “moved closer to stabilisation,” as declines in sales eased and firms reported improved hiring activity.

    Global trade tensions stemming from US tariffs continue to weigh on demand, with businesses citing “increased client hesitancy” and weaker orders.

    Despite persistent external challenges around tariffs, sentiment around future output improved, and hiring rose at the fastest pace in over a year.

    EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1310; (P) 1.1350; (R1) 1.1387; More…

    Intraday bias in EUR/USD is back on the upside as rebound from 1.1064 resumed by breaking through 1.1417. Further rise would be seen to retest 1.1572. Strong resistance could be seen there to limit upside at first attempt. Below 1.1311 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Nevertheless, decisive break of 1.1572 will confirm larger up trend resumption.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0856) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q1 6.40% 3.80% -0.20%
    00:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI May 49.4 49 49
    01:00 AUD TD-MI Inflation Gauge M/M May -0.40% 0.60%
    06:30 CHF Real Retail Sales Y/Y Apr 1.30% 2.50% 2.20% 2.10%
    07:00 CHF GDP Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.40% 0.20% 0.30%
    07:30 CHF Manufacturing PMI May 42.1 48.1 45.8
    07:50 EUR France Manufacturing PMI May F 49.8 49.5 49.5
    07:55 EUR Germany Manufacturing PMI May F 48.3 48.8 48.8
    08:00 EUR Eurozone Manufacturing PMI May F 49.4 49.4 49.4
    08:30 GBP Manufacturing PMI May F 46.4 45.1 45.1
    08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Apr 60K 65K 64K
    08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Apr 0.00% 0.20% 0.30%
    13:30 CAD Manufacturing PMI May 45.3
    13:45 USD Manufacturing PMI May F 52.3 52.3
    14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI May 49.3 48.7
    14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid May 70.2 69.8
    14:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Employment Index May 46.5
    14:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Apr 0.30% -0.50%

     



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  • Trade Chaos Likely to Linger, June to Bring More Uncertainty

    Trade Chaos Likely to Linger, June to Bring More Uncertainty


    Markets endured another week of trade confusion, with sentiment swinging sharply on alternating headlines. As a result, investor confidence remains fragile, with markets finding little footing as the tug-of-war between hopes of progress and fear of escalation continues.

    While the 90-day reciprocal tariff truce is now in effect, its second half is shaping up to be just as uncertain. There’s potential for additional trade agreements to be finalized in the coming weeks, especially among smaller economies or non-contentious regions. However, the negotiations that matter most—between the US and the EU, and the US and China—remain fraught with difficulty. These high-stakes talks carry the most weight for global markets and, therefore, also pose the greatest downside risk.

    Equity markets around the world are showing clear signs of fatigue. The bullish momentum that since mid-April has faded, replaced by choppy, indecisive price action. With global indexes indexes stalling, the stage is set for a prolonged period of sideways or probably downward movement.

    The old market adage “sell in May and go away” might have come slightly early for some. But given the current backdrop, the phrase may still apply—with a twist. For 2025, “sell in June is not too late” may prove to be the more accurate rule of thumb. Barring a clear and credible resolution on the major trade fronts, June could be another month of whipsaw trading, fragile sentiment, and rising caution.

    Overall in the currency markets, Dollar ended as the strongest one, followed by Loonie, and then Euro. Yen was the worst performer, followed by Aussie and then Sterling. Swiss Franc and Kiwi ended in the middle. But the pairs and crosses were merely in consolidations in general.

    Global Stock Markets Lose Momentum Further

    Technically, for DOW, upside momentum has clearly been diminishing as D MACD is trending below signal line. While another rise cannot be ruled out yet, strong resistance should emerge below 45073.63 high to cap upside.

    Rise from 36611.78 is seen as the as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 45073.63. Break of 41352.09 support will bring deeper fall back to 38.2% retracement of 36611.78 to 42842.04 at 40462.08. Decisive break there will suggest near term reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 38991.74 and below.

    Similar picture is seen in NASDAQ as it’s also losing upside momentum as seen in D MACD. While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be capped by 20204.58 high. Break of 18599.68 support will bring deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 14784.03 to 19389.39 at 17630.14. Further break there will argue that the corrective pattern from 20204.58 has already started the third leg.

    FTSE’s outlook is also similar, even though it’s an outperformer comparing to the US stock indexes. D MACD suggests that FTSE is also losing momentum. In case of another rise, upside should be limited by 8908.82 high. Break of 8604.80 support will bring deeper pullback to 38.2% retracement of 7544.83 to 8824.00 at 8335.36. Further break there will argue that corrective pattern from 8908.82 has started the third leg already.

    Even the record breaking DAX is also losing momentum as seen in D MACD. Strong resistance is expected from 100% projection of 17024.82 to 23476.01 from 18489.91 at 24940.97 to limit upside, in case of another rally. Bring of 23274.85 will indicate that a correction has started to 55 D EMA (now at 22848.19) and below.

    Dollar Index to Engage in More Consolidations before Downside Breakout

    Dollar Index gyrated in range above 97.92 short term bottom last week. Outlook is unchanged that it’s now in consolidation to the decline from 110.17. The pattern might be set to extend further due to market uncertainty. But in case of another rise, strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60 to limit upside. Firm break of 97.92 will confirm down trend resumption.

    Also, fall from 110.17 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 114.77 (2022 high). On resumption, next target is 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

    EUR/USD’s price actions from 1.1572 are seen as a corrective pattern to rally from 1.0176, which might still be extending. On the upside, above 1.1417 will bring retest of 1.1572 first. On the downside, below 1.1209 will target 1.1064 again. But overall, rise from 1.0176 is expected to resume after the correction completes at a later stage.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0856) holds.

    In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1290) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.



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  • Tariff Truce Wobbles at Halfway Mark; Risk Sentiment Falters on Renewed Threats

    Tariff Truce Wobbles at Halfway Mark; Risk Sentiment Falters on Renewed Threats


    Trade war roared back into focus late last week, derailing fragile market sentiment already strained by concerns over the ballooning US deficit. The catalyst came in the form of a sharp threat from US President Donald Trump on European Union imports. This abrupt escalation shattered hopes that the 90-day truce period would lead to calmer trade diplomacy, and instead reignited fears of a broader trade war just as markets were struggling to absorb fiscal uncertainty.

    US equities tumbled in response, with heavy losses across major indices, while European bourses weren’t spared either. Risk aversion swept through global markets, pushing investors toward traditional safe-haven assets.

    Dollar, which had already been under pressure from Moody’s downgrade and debt sustainability concerns, took another hit and ended the week as the worst-performing major currency. Confidence in US assets appears increasingly fragile as both fiscal and trade risks deepen.

    Aussie followed as the second weakest, burdened not just by global risk aversion but also by the dovish tone from RBA earlier in the week, while Loonie also suffered at the bottom.

    In contrast, the Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc surged to the top of the FX leaderboard, clearly benefiting from haven demand. Gold also staged a powerful rally, with its bullish momentum signaling deep market unease.

    Euro and Sterling settled in the middle of the pack. While the Euro showed some vulnerability to Trump’s tariff threat, it remained relatively supported. Sterling, meanwhile, was underpinned by a series of stronger-than-expected economic data, including upside surprises in inflation and retail sales.

    Trade War Returns to Spotlight as Trump’s Tariff Threat on EU Hammers Markets, Dollar Slides

    The global financial markets, which had been preoccupied with US sovereign debt concerns and the impact of a Moody’s downgrade earlier in the week, saw sentiment quickly shift as trade war tensions re-emerged. The trigger came late Friday, when US President Donald Trump declared he is “recommending a straight 50% Tariff on the European Union,” citing frustration with stalled negotiations. The announcement stunned investors and reignited fears of a wider spiral, sending US stocks and Dollar sharply lower into the weekly close.

    Equity markets, which had enjoyed a strong six-week rally driven by optimism from the 90-day tariff truce with major trading partners, were caught off guard. As little tangible progress was made halfway through the truce period, Trump’s shift back to hardline tactics was interpreted as a sign that the administration may be preparing to walk away from negotiation tables. The renewed threat has not only clouded the outlook for trade but also raised concerns over the policy direction in Washington.

    Speaking at a White House event, Trump made clear his stance: “I’m not looking for a deal. I mean, we’ve set the deal. It’s at 50%.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent echoed the sentiment, suggesting the tariff threat was intended to “light a fire under the EU.” These remarks hinted at a deliberate strategy to escalate pressure on Brussels ahead of the June 1 deadline.

    In response, European Commission Vice President Maros Sefcovic stated the EU remains “fully engaged” and committed to securing a mutually beneficial deal. He emphasized that negotiations must be “guided by mutual respect, not threats,” and warned the EU stands ready to defend its interests. Despite diplomatic overtures, the tone on both sides suggests little ground has been gained, making further market volatility likely as the deadline nears.

    In summary, the re-ignition of trade tensions with the EU has thrown markets back into uncertainty. With US fiscal policy already under scrutiny and tariff escalation threatening global growth, investors may remain on the defensive until clearer direction emerges, either through a breakthrough in negotiations or a change in Washington’s rhetoric. Until then, volatility and risk aversion are likely to dominate.

    Technically, DOW’s extended decline last week indicates that a short term top was already formed at 42842.04. More consolidations would be seen with risk of deeper decline. But overall near term outlook will stay bullish as long as 38.2% retracement of 36611.78 to 42842.04 at 40462.08 holds.

    However, rise from 36611.78 is seen as the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 45073.63 high. So, even in case of another rise, DOW should start to lose momentum again as it approaches 45073.63.

    Dollar Index’s late break of 99.17 support argues that corrective rebound from 97.92 might have completed at 101.97 already. Further decline is now in favor in the near term to retest 97.92 low first. Firm break there will resume the larger down trend to 61.8% projection of 100.17 to 97.92 from 101.97 at 94.40.

    European Stocks Also Hit by Tariff Shock; DAX and CAC Signal Near-Term Tops

    European equities also slumped in tandem with the US on Friday on Trump’s tariff threat. The announcement dealt a direct blow to investor sentiment across the region, with Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 each falling around -1.6% on the day.

    However, Germany’s equity outlook, and to a lesser extent the region’s, should remain underpinned by fiscal expansion at both national and EU levels, which could cushion downside risks and support a medium-term bullish outlook.

    Technically, the late selloff in DAX indicates that 24154.24 record high should already be a short term top. Near term risk is mildly on the downside for pull back to 55 D EMA (now at 22610.12). Nevertheless, strong support should emerge from 38.2% retracement of 18489.91 to 24154.24 at 21989.23 to contain downside to bring rebound.

    CAC should have formed a short term top at 7955.53, and turned into consolidations. Given CAC’s underperformance comparing to DAX, there is risk of dipping through 38.2% retracement of 6763.76 to 7955.53 at 7500.27. But strong support should be seen above 61.8% retracement at 7219.02 to contain downside.

    Aussie Under Fire as RBA’s Dovish Cut Fuels July Easing Bets

    Aussie ended last week as one of the weakest performers among major currencies, additionally weighed down by the dovish 25bps rate cut from RBA. While the move was widely expected, RBA Governor Michele Bullock revealed that the board had actively considered a larger 50bps reduction before settling on the more measured step.

    Bullock also deliberately leave the door open for fasting easing, as she indicated that “if we need to move quickly, we can. We have got space.”

    Alongside the cut, RBA downgraded its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 2.1% to 1.9% and revised year-end CPI projections sharply lower, from 3.7% to 3.0%.

    These adjustments cemented the market’s view that the easing cycle has room to run, with rate futures now assigning more than 50% probability to another cut as early as July and fully pricing in a second 25bps cut by August.

    Technically, AUD/JPY failed to sustain above 38.2% retracement of 109.36 to 86.03 at 94.94, and retreated from there. Focus is now on 92.10 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 86.03 to 95.63 at 91.96).

    Strong rebound from 91.96/92.10 will retain near term bullishness. Further break of 95.63 will solidify the bullish case that whole fall form 109.36 has completed as a three-wave correction to 86.03.

    However, firm break of 91.96/92.10 will argue that the rebound has completed. More importantly, the down trend from 109.36 is likely still in progress for another low below 86.03.

    Gold Eyes Fresh Record High as Safe Haven Flows Persist

    Gold rallied strongly last week, supported by a confluence of factors including persistent concerns over the US fiscal outlook and escalating global trade tensions.

    With global equities showing signs of strain and long-dated US Treasury yields on the rise, capital has flowed steadily into Gold. The precious metal’s resilience suggests it may be gearing up to break above the record high of 3500, especially if risk aversion intensifies in the days ahead.

    Technically, corrective decline form 3499.79 should have completed with three waves down to 3120.34. That came after strong support from 55 D EMA (now at 3177.32) and 38.2% retracement of 2584.24 to 3499.79 at 3150.04.

    Further rise is expected as long as 3279.22 support holds, to retest 3499.79 high first. Decisive break there will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 2584.24 to 3499.79 from 3120.34 at 3686.14 next.

    GBP/USD Weekly Outlook

    GBP/USD’s up trend resumed by breaking through 1.3442 resistance last week. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 1.2706 to 1.3442 from 1.3138 at 1.3593, and then 100% projection at 1.3874. On the downside, below 1.3389 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again first.

    In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2843) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

    In the long term picture, for now, price actions from 1.0351 (2022 low) are still seen as a corrective pattern to the long term down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) only. However, firm break of 1.4248 resistance (38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.0351 at 1.4480) will be a strong sign of long term bullish reversal.



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  • Moody’s Downgrade Disrupts Calm from Tariff Truce, Dollar Faces New Test

    Moody’s Downgrade Disrupts Calm from Tariff Truce, Dollar Faces New Test


    Just as markets were finding their footing following a series of positive trade developments, Moody’s delivered a late-week shock by downgrading the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The move overshadowed the optimism sparked by the US-China tariff truce and the broader de-escalation of trade tensions.

    The trade outlook appears less volatile in the near term, with more agreements possibly in the pipeline. Markets may enjoy a reprieve from tariff headlines until early July for non-China partners, and until mid-August for China.

    However, that stability could be abruptly shaken by Moody’s downgrade. The timing of the downgrade coincides with fragile improvements in sentiment, raises the risk of renewed selling in both Treasuries and Dollar.

    In the currency markets, performance was mixed last week, a hallmark of broader consolidation. Dollar finished as the strongest currency but notably failed to build on its early-week strength. Aussie followed as the second-best performer, buoyed by strong domestic job data and risk appetite, while Sterling also held firm with support from strong UK GDP. However, gains were limited overall. On the weaker side, Euro posted the poorest performance, followed by Swiss Franc and Kiwi. Yen and Loonie ended the week in the middle.

    Wall Street Surges on Trade Truce, Even Though Soaring Inflation Expectations Reinforce Fed Patience

    US equity markets wrapped up the week with strong gains, driven by renewed optimism over global trade and investor resilience, despite worrying economic signals. S&P 500 surged 5.3%, DOW added 3.4%, and NASDAQ Composite outperformed with a 7.2% jump. The rally was initially sparked by the surprising outcome of the US-China trade meeting. Both sides agreed to a 90-day truce and rolled back a significant portion of the tariffs, though not fully returning to pre-conflict levels.

    Investors looked past several downside risks and pushed stock prices higher, even as economic data pointed to potential trouble ahead. Markets absorbed weak consumer sentiment and sharply rising inflation expectations without flinching. This reflects a broader hope that trade normalization will continue to offset macro headwinds, at least in the short term.

    The University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment report for May, released Friday, highlighted growing public anxiety. The headline index dropped to 50.8, its second-lowest reading on record. Year-ahead inflation expectations surged from 6.5% to 7.3%, the highest since 1981.

    Importantly, the survey was conducted between April 22 and May 13. That timeframe includes the period after US President Donald Trump announced that reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners other than China would be scaled back to a 10% baseline. It also includes responses collected a day after the US-China truce was declared.

    In that context, the persistent collapse in sentiment and worsening inflation outlook suggest that consumers remain highly skeptical about the economic direction. Even the rollback of some tariffs was not enough to lift the mood or tame concerns about rising prices. Attention will now be on the final May release due May 30, to see if sentiment and expectations shift more positively as the trade truce sinks in.

    For Fed, the data likely reinforce a cautious stance, for holding back from another rate cut for longer. Fed funds futures now reflect just a 36% chance of a 25bps rate cut in July. Expectations rise to 75% for a September cut, followed by around 70% odds of another in December. That suggests markets believe only two rate cuts are likely this year, if any.

    Technically, S&P 500 gapped higher at the start of the week and extended its rally from 4835.04 low. The current rise is still viewed as the second leg in the medium-term corrective pattern from the 6147.43 high. Momentum should start to fade above 6000 psychological level. A break below 5720.10 gap support would indicate short-term topping. Sustained trading below 55 Day EMA (now at 5650.80) would suggest that the third leg of the correction has already begun.

    Moody’s Downgrade Casts Shadow Over Dollar and Treasuries

    Despite a strong weekly finish for Wall Street and Dollar, sentiment faces a fresh challenge after Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign credit rating on Friday. The move, announced after markets closed, cut the rating by one notch to Aa1 from Aaa—marking a rare loss of top-tier status. While the immediate market reaction was muted due to timing, the downgrade could cast a shadow over financial markets in the coming week, with pressure potentially building on both Dollar and US Treasuries.

    Notably, Dollar ended as the top-performing major currency last week, but it did so without conviction. After Monday’s initial surge, momentum faded quickly. By midweek, the greenback began to stall, showing little follow-through despite stronger inflation expectations. That suggests underlying demand may be fragile.

    Moody’s cited deteriorating fiscal outlook as the key reason for the downgrade, pointing to “successive US administrations and Congress” that have failed to reverse the trend of widening deficits and rising debt servicing costs. The agency also expressed skepticism that meaningful fiscal reforms are on the horizon, making clear that the downgrade reflects more than just short-term political risks. The downgrade reflects not only mounting fiscal stress, but also the political impasse that continues to hinder structural reforms.

    This backdrop is especially important given how markets reacted in early April, when sweeping reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US triggered a rally in Treasury yields and broad weakening of Dollar. That episode suggested investors may be reassessing traditional assumptions about the US’s role as the ultimate safe asset provider. A similar dynamic could resurface if the Moody’s downgrade gains traction with bondholders or sparks broader credit rating scrutiny.

    Technically, 10-year yield’s strong rise last week suggests that near term correction from 1.4592 has already completed at 4.124. Rise from 3.886 might be ready to resume. Further rally is now in favor as long as 55 D EMA (now at 4.3437) holds. Firm break of 4.592 would target 100% projection of 3.886 to 4.592 from 4.124 at 4.830 next.

    Dollar Index’s corrective recovery from 97.92 continued last week, but started to struggle ahead of 55 D EMA (now at 101.93). While another rise cannot be ruled out, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60. On the downside, break of 99.17 support will argue that larger down trend is ready to resume through 97.92 low.

    One asset that could benefit from renewed stress on the Dollar and Treasuries is Gold. Technically, Gold is now at an ideal level to complete the corrective pullback from 3499.79 high. Current levels include 55 D EMA (now at 3152.88) and 38.2% retracement of 2584.24 to 3499.79 at 3150.04. On the upside, firm break of 3262.74 resistance should bring stronger rally back to 3434.76/3499.79 resistance zone.

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

    EUR/USD dived further to 1.1064 last week but recovered ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Strong support is still expected from 1.1039 to complete the correction from 1.1572. On the upside, above 1.1292 will bring stronger rise back to retest 1.1572. However, sustained break of 1.1039 will dampen this view and target 61.8% retracement at 1.0709 next.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0818) holds.

    In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1300) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.



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  • Sterling and Dollar Lead as Trade Deal Grabs Attention

    Sterling and Dollar Lead as Trade Deal Grabs Attention


    Last week was dominated by developments out of the US and UK, not just because of monetary policy decisions, but also the unexpected announcement of a US-UK trade deal. Fed’s hold and BoE’s cut were were largely overshadowed by the surprise trade breakthrough.

    Importantly, the structure of the agreement offered valuable insights into the US administration’s trade strategy which could set the template for negotiations with other key partners.

    Despite the significance of the agreement, market reactions were relatively restrained. Major US stock indexes and the UK’s FTSE 100 closed slightly lower. Investors remain cautious about the deal’s practical impact and the broader global developments.

    Still, the news did provide meaningful support to the currencies involved: Sterling and Dollar emerged as the week’s top performers. Japanese Yen took third place

    In contrast, Loonie underperformed at the bottom. Kiwi and Swiss Franc also lagged. Euro and Aussie ended in the middle of the pack.

    Historic Pact, Modest Reaction: Investors Cautious Despite US-UK Trade Breakthrough

    While the US-UK trade deal marked a diplomatic milestone, the first bilateral agreement since the sweeping tariff measures enacted in April, financial markets responded with notable indifference. Equities initially rallied on Thursday following the announcement, but the enthusiasm quickly faded. All three major US indexes reversed earlier gains and ended the week in the red, with S&P 500 falling -0.5%, NASDAQ down -0.3%, the DOW slipping -0.2%.

    The structure of the agreement reveals much about the current US approach to trade. The UK, given its trade surplus with the US and its unparalleled security ties, likely received the most favorable terms Washington is willing to offer. If this is the best-case scenario, expectations for more comprehensive or lenient agreements, even with regions like the EU or Japan, may need to be tempered.

    A 10% blanket tariff remains on virtually all UK exports to the US. That is likely the floor for future negotiations with other partners. This baseline may not only serve as a protective measure but also as a consistent revenue stream to fund Trump’s domestic agenda, including tax cuts. Though minor exemptions may be granted, such as on UK automobiles and metals, they are expected to be case-specific rather than systemic.

    What sets this agreement apart is the emphasis on expanding market access for US companies in the UK, particularly in agriculture and industries. It suggests that future trade arrangements will be designed less to eliminate tariffs wholesale and more to create bilateral corridors of opportunity favoring U.S. exporters, negotiated country by country.

    In that context, the muted market response becomes clearer. Investors recognize that this agreement doesn’t signify a return to pre-tariff global trade norms. With 90 days remaining in the current tariff truce, the road ahead includes complex negotiations not only with China and the EU but also within supply chains deeply impacted by the new tariff regime. Optimism about progress must be balanced against the reality that a systemic overhaul is still underway, and clarity will be slow to emerge.

    Technically, DOW’s rebound from 36611.78 is seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 45073.63 high. Further rise is in favor as long as 40759.41 support holds. However, DOW could start to lose momentum more apparently above 61.8% retracement of 45073.63 to 36611.78 at 41841.20. Break of 40759.41 will indicate short term topping, and bring pullback first.

    June Fed Cut Going Off the Radar, July Doubtful, Dollar Extends Modest Rise

    Fed held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25–4.50% last week, as widely anticipated. The key message from Fed Chair Jerome Powell was one of restraint: rate cuts are not imminent. Powell emphasized that with the current level of uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and tariffs, “it’s not a situation where we can be preemptive.” He reiterated that if the current size and scale of tariffs remain in place, the US could face the dual challenge of rising inflation and unemployment.

    Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack’s comments from an interview published on Friday is worth a mention. She noted that the breadth of tariff measures already discussed and implemented raises “real questions” about their ultimate economic impact. As such, she suggested it may take longer before Fed can confidently begin to ease rates.

    Crucially, Hammack pointed out that there won’t be much new data between now and the next FOMC meeting in June, limiting the Fed’s ability to reassess the situation. Her comments align with current market pricing, which assigns just a 17.2% probability to a June rate cut.

    Looking ahead, July is now the more likely inflection point, though conviction is still weak. Market-implied odds for a 25bps cut in July stand at around 60%. Investors remain far from convinced a rate move is locked in.

    Dollar Index gyrated higher last week, partly supported by expectations that Fed interest rate will stay high for longer, and partly support by improved appetite on US assets as trade negotiations made progress.

    Technically, corrective rise from 97.92 could extend higher towards 55 D EMA (now at 102.08). But strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60 limit upside. On the downside, break of 99.17 support would argue that the corrective recovery has completed earlier than expected, and bring retest of 97.92 low next.

    BoE Vote Split Surprises, Top Mover GBP/CAD’s Rally Limited

    BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut to 4.25% as widely anticipated, but the composition of the vote took markets by surprise. The Monetary Policy Committee split three ways: five members supported the cut, two hawkish voices—Catherine Mann and Chief Economist Huw Pill—voted for no change, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor pushed for a deeper 50bps reduction. The presence of two hawkish hold votes gave the overall decision a more cautious tone than markets had anticipated Market expectations for a gradual 25bps-per-quarter path remain intact.

    BoE Governor Andrew Bailey addressed the impact of global trade tensions in a speech following the decision, and raised an interesting perspective. He highlighted how different global tariff scenarios could affect the UK economy in divergent ways. Most notably, Bailey stressed that a demand-driven downside—where both inflation and activity fall—would require a stronger monetary response compared to a supply-driven upside shock, where inflation rises but growth slows. The key distinction lies in the trade-off: when inflation and activity move in opposite directions, policy decisions become more complex and risk-laden, requiring a more delicate balance.

    British Pound ended the week as the strongest major currency. GBP/CAD was the top mover, rising 1.13%. Still, price action in GBP/CAD doesn’t show clear strength. The bounce even failed to break the prior week’s high of 1.8598.

    Technically, GBP/CAD is seen as in consolidation pattern from 1.8777, with current rise from 1.7980 as the second leg. Further rally might be seen but upside should be limited by 1.8777.

    On the downside, break of 1.8280 support will argue that the third has started. Deeper fall should then follow to 1.7980, or even to channel support at around 1.7700.

    AUD/USD Weekly Report

    AUD/USD retreated after edging higher to 0.6511 last week, but downside is contained above 0.6364 support so far. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 0.6511 will resume the rally from 0.5913 to 61.8% retracement of 0.6941 to 0.5913 at 0.6548. However, considering bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, break of 0.6364 support should confirm short term topping. Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.6511 at 0.6283.

    In the bigger picture, as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6443) holds, down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high) should resume later to 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. However, sustained trading above 55 W EMA will argue that a medium term bottom was already formed, and set up further rebound to 0.6941 resistance instead.

    In the long term picture, prior rejection by 55 M EMA (now at 0.6764) is taken as a bearish signal. But for now, fall from 0.8006 is still seen as the second leg of the corrective pattern from 0.5506 long term bottom (2020 low). Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to contain downside to bring reversal.



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  • Risk-On Sentiment Regains Control as Data Downplays Severity of Tariff Shock

    Risk-On Sentiment Regains Control as Data Downplays Severity of Tariff Shock


    Global risk sentiment continued to improve last week, with major equity indices staging robust rallies as investor anxiety over the fallout from tariffs eased. The solid US non-farm payroll data was a key turning point, reassuring markets that the early economic impact of the trade shock was not as damaging as initially feared. Added to that, there were signs of progress on multiple trade negotiation fronts, including a potential thaw in US-China relations.

    In the currency markets, Aussie was the top performer, buoyed not only by improving risk appetite but also by stronger-than-expected inflation data, which suggests the RBA’s easing path may remain gradual. Loonie followed as second benefiting from political stability after the Canadian elections. Swiss Franc ranked third.

    On the other hand, Yen fell the most, under pressure from a dovish BoJ that downgraded its growth outlook. Euro was the second weakest performer, reversing some of its earlier strength despite a sharper-than-expected acceleration in core inflation. Sterling also lagged as third worst. Dollar and New Zealand Dollar ended the week in the middle of the pack.

    US Stocks Erase April Losses as Payrolls Soothe Growth Fears, Fed Cut Odds Fall

    The US markets have decisively moved past the turmoil sparked by the reciprocal tariff announcements in April. Investor confidence has fully recovered, especially in equities with both S&P 500 and NASDAQ reversed all losses from April. S&P 500 even notched a remarkable nine consecutive days of gains, its longest winning streak since 2004. DOW is also on track to complete a full reversal.

    Sentiment had wavered briefly after Q1 GDP showed an unexpected contraction. However, those concerns were largely alleviated by April’s non-farm payroll report, which showed solid job creation and stable unemployment. The data suggests that while trade disruptions remain a concern, the labor market is resilient and the broader economy is still on strong footing. This has helped markets conclude that the immediate economic damage from the tariff standoff is more modest than feared.

    Looking ahead, the 90-day tariff truce, set to expire in early July, becomes the next major milestone for investors. There are tentative signs of progress on trade negotiations, including fresh signals from China that it may be open to returning to the table. While expectations for a zero-tariff outcome remain low, the fear of escalation to a worst-case scenario has clearly eased. Markets appear to be pricing in a more constructive path, even if slow-moving and politically complex.

    At the same time, expectations for Fed policy are undergoing a recalibration. With the labor market holding firm and inflation still persistent, the urgency for another rate cut has diminished. Fed fund futures are now pricing just a 35% chance of a cut in June — down sharply from 63% a week ago and nearly 80% at the start of April. Importantly, this moderation in rate cut bets is being absorbed without negative market reaction, signaling that investors are comfortable with Fed remaining on hold for longer.

    Technically, S&P 500’s rally from the 4835.04 low is seen as the second leg in the medium-term pattern from 6147.43 record high. Further upside is favored in the near term as long as 5433.24 support holds. But significant resistance around 6147.43 to bring the third leg of the pattern.

    In the bigger picture, the long term up trend remains intact. S&P 500 is well supported by long term rising channel, and managed to defend 4818.62 resistance turned support (2022 high).

    An upside breakout is possible during the second half of the year. But that would depend on two key elements: the resolution of trade uncertainty and continued economic resilience.

    If July’s truce deadline passes without escalation — or better yet, with concrete de-escalation — and economic data remains firm, then a new record would be on the horizon.

    Yields Rise on Risk-On Flow, But Dollar Fails to Ride the Wave

    US 10-year Treasury yield staged a rally rebound on Friday, in tandem with equities. Unlike previous yield spikes driven by capital flight, this surge appears rooted in a rotation out of safe-haven assets and into equities, as risk appetite returned.

    Technically, 10-year yield’s pull back from 4.592 has likely completed with three waves down to 4.124. Break of 4.407 resistance will solidify this bullish case. Rise from 3.886 could then be resuming through 4.592 resistance to 100% projection of 3.886 to 4.592 from 4.124 at 4.830.

    In contrast, Dollar has failed to capitalize on either yield strength or reduced recession anxiety. Expectations for Fed to keep interest rates elevated longer may provide some underlying support. But if risk sentiment continues to improve, demand for USD as a defensive play may continue to weaken, even as yield support holds.

    Technically, firm break of 100.27 resistance in Dollar Index will bring stronger rebound back to 55 D EMA (now at 102.51). But strong resistance should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60 to limit upside.

    Bullish Case Continue to Build for AUD/JPY, with 94.94 Fibonacci Target in Insight

    AUD/JPY ended last week as the top winner and gained 1.56%, on a potent mix of risk-on sentiment and changes in monetary policy outlooks.

    Aussie’s strength was reinforced by Q1 inflation data from Australia. On the one hand, the trimmed mean CPI returned to RBA’s 2–3% target range for the first time since 2021, cementing expectations of a May rate cut. However, stronger than expected headline CPI reading, and renewed goods inflation pressures points to a cautious and gradual easing path, rather than an aggressive cycle.

    In contrast, Yen suffered after BoJ left rates unchanged and sharply downgraded its growth forecast for fiscal 2025, slashing it by more than half. Additionally, core inflation projections were revised lower, raising the risk of falling short of the 2% target again. The downgrade has pushed back expectations of any near-term rate hikes. A June move now looks off the table.

    Technically, the developments continue to affirm the case that corrective fall from 109.36 (2024 high) has completed with three waves down to 86.03.

    Further rally should be seen in the near term as long as 90.57 support holds, to 38.2% retracement of 109.36 to 86.03 at 94.94. Sustained break there will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 100.44.

    However, rejection by 94.94 fibonacci resistance, followed by break of 90.57 support, will dampen this bullish view and bring retest of 86.03.

    EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

    EUR/USD gyrated lower last week but recovered after hitting 1.1265. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. On the downside, below 1.1265 will resume the corrective fall from 1.1572 short term top. But downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.1572 at 1.1039. On the upside, break of 1.1424 will suggest that the correction has completed and bring retest of 1.1572 high.

    In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0776) holds.

    In the long term picture, the case of long term bullish reversal is building up. Sustained break of falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1300) will argue that the down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) has completed at 0.9534. A medium term up trend should then follow even as a corrective move. Next target is 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019.



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  • Markets Stay Subdued Ahead of Big Data and Earnings; Trade Talks Remain in Focus

    Markets Stay Subdued Ahead of Big Data and Earnings; Trade Talks Remain in Focus


    Trading remains notably subdued across global financial markets today as investors adopt a cautious stance. On deck are quarterly earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven”—Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft. On top of that, key releases including US and Eurozone GDP, US non-farm payrolls, and Eurozone CPI flash inflation data will provide critical insights into the impacts of recent trade tensions on the economy.

    Sentiment is caught between two powerful forces. On the pessimistic side, growing risks of a global recession stemming from escalating trade disruptions are weighing heavily. According to a Reuters poll, three-quarters of economists have downgraded their 2025 global growth forecasts, cutting the median forecast to 2.7% from 3.0% just a few months ago. Alarmingly, 60% of surveyed economists rated the risk of a global recession this year as either “high” or “very high.” Investors will be keenly watching this week’s economic releases for validation—or rejection—of these rising recession fears.

    However, there is also a glimmer of optimism. Any tangible breakthrough in ongoing trade negotiations could quickly improve sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized that “it’s up to China to de-escalate,” highlighting that China’s trade surplus with the US makes their current tariff burden “unsustainable.” Bessent also hinted that India could soon become one of the first countries to finalize a new trade agreement with the US, keeping markets alert for needed boost to sentiment.

    In the currency markets, Kiwi is the weakest performer of the day so far, followed by Swiss Franc and Loonie. On the stronger side, Ten is leading gains, followed by Sterling, and then Aussie. Dollar and Euro are sitting in the middle of the pack.

    Technically, AUD/NZD’s extended recovery suggests that a short term bottom was formed at 1.0649, on bullish convergence condition in 4H MACD. Stronger rally is in favor for the near term. But outlook will stay bearish as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.1173 to 1.0649 at 1.0849 holds. Another decline through 1.0649 is expected at a later stage once the current consolidation completes—especially if RBA moves toward faster rate cuts in response to weakening economic conditions.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.16%. DAX is up 0.55%. CAC is up 0.87%. UK 10-year yield is up 0.039 at 4.521. Germany 10-year yield is up 0.052 at 2.515. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.38%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.04%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.20%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.31%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.025 to 1.315.

    IMF warns US tariffs to outweigh Germany’s stimulus, recommends just one more ECB cut

    Higher infrastructure spending in Germany will offer some support to Europe’s growth outlook, but it won’t be enough to offset the damage caused by US tariffs, according to Alfred Kammer, director of the European department at the IMF.

    Speaking to CNBC, Kammer stressed that “it’s the tariffs and the trade tensions which weigh on the outlook rather than the positive effects on the fiscal side.”

    He noted that the IMF has delivered a “meaningful downgrade” to growth forecasts for Europe’s advanced economies and an even steeper downgrade for the emerging Eurozone countries over the next two years. The IMF cut its Eurozone growth forecasts by -0.2% for each of the next two years, now projecting growth of just 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026.

    Kammer also outlined a clear policy recommendation for ECB. Acknowledging the success of the disinflation efforts, he suggested that ECB has room for “one more 25-basis-point cut in the summer,” after which it should hold rates steady at around 2%, barring major shocks.

    ECB’s Villeroy reaffirms gradual rate cut, sees no recession risk

    French ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau expressed confidence today that there is no imminent recession risk for either France or Europe, while inflation continues to decline.

    Speaking to RTL Radio, Villeroy also reaffirmed that the ECB retains “a gradual margin for rate cuts”, despite global uncertainties.

    Villeroy also issued a strong warning about the risks stemming from US trade policies. He criticized the administration’s protectionist stance, saying it was “playing against the US economy and unfortunately also against the world economy.”

    He stressed that protectionism ultimately leads to “less growth and more inflation.”

    China reaffirms growth target, holds back on major stimulus

    China pledged its full confidence in achieving this year’s growth target of around 5%, vowing to implement timely and multiple support measures as the country is now in full-fledged trade war with the US. However, no major stimulus was announced immediately, giving the impression that Beijing is not in a rush to roll out large-scale interventions. Authorities appear inclined to first monitor the trade shock’s timing and magnitude before deciding on more aggressive measures.

    Zhao Chenxin, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, stressed at a press conference today that China retains “ample policy reserves and plenty of policy space,” and highlighted plans to stabilize employment and strengthen public employment services.

    At a Politburo meeting chaired by President Xi Jinping last week, officials called for a “timely reduction” in interest rates and reserve requirement ratios to support the economy. Additional measures to aid struggling businesses, boost consumption among middle- and lower-income groups, and promote further development in technology and artificial intelligence were also emphasized.

    As a touch of optimism, official data released over the weekend showed China’s industrial profits returning to growth in the first quarter. Cumulative profits rose 0.8% yoy to CNY 1.5T, reversing a -0.3% decline seen in the first two months.

    GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3268; (P) 1.3318; (R1) 1.3361; More…

    Intraday bias in GBP/USD is turned neutral first with today’s recovery. Correction from 1.3422 short term top could still extend, and break of 1.3232 will turn intraday bias back the downside. But in this case, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 1.2099 to 1.3422 at 1.2917. On the upside, firm break of 1.3422/33 resistance zone will resume larger up trend.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3433 are seen as a corrective pattern to the up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low). Rise from 1.2099 could either be resuming the up trend, or the second leg of a consolidation pattern. Overall, GBP/USD should target 1.4248 key resistance (2021 high) on break of 1.3433 at a later stage.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    10:00 GBP CBI Realized Sales Apr -8 -20 -41

     



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  • Global Risk Sentiment Brightens, But Caution Lingers Around US Assets

    Global Risk Sentiment Brightens, But Caution Lingers Around US Assets


    Global risk sentiment showed further improvement last week, with stock markets around the world posting impressive gains. Although headlines continued to focus on the confusing state of U.S.-China trade tensions, there was quiet but notable progress on multiple trade fronts, including US talks with Japan, South Korea and India.

    US equities rebounded alongside the global rally even though they still lack the decisive momentum needed to confirm that a durable bottom has been established. European markets, on the other hand, painted a far more encouraging picture.

    The strength of the rebound in European equities suggests that the worst of the April selloff may already be behind us. Moreover, there is a growing sense that the sharpest phase of the tariff crisis has passed, and that incremental improvements could take root from here.

    The shift in sentiment was clearly reflected in the currency markets too. Kiwi ended the week as the strongest performer, followed by Aussie and Sterling. All three currencies benefited from the rebound in risk appetite, with investors rotating out of safe-haven assets and into higher-yielding or growth-linked currencies. On the other end, the safe-haven trio—Swiss Franc, Yen, and Euro—underperformed, as investors rotated away from defensive assets amid easing fears. Dollar and Loonie finished in the middle of the pack.

    While the equity rally suggests a return of broader risk appetite, investor interest in US assets has yet to fully recover. This is likely due to ongoing concerns over U.S. policy consistency and the uncertain path for trade negotiations. Until clearer signals emerge from Washington and stronger technical confirmations develop in US stock markets, Dollar may continue to lag behind the recovery seen elsewhere.

    Markets Rally on Trade Progress, But Major Hurdles with China and EU Remain

    Global stock markets extended their strong rally last week. There seems to be growing optimism that the worst phase of the tariff crisis may be behind us, at least for now. Trade negotiations appear to be picking up momentum across several fronts, offering hope for partial resolutions. Recent economic data, particularly PMI surveys from the Eurozone and the US, suggest that businesses have been bracing well for uncertainty, cushioning the blow from trade tensions.

    In an interview with Time magazine on Friday, US President Donald Trump said he expects “many” trade deals to fall into place over the next three to four weeks. Positive signals are emerging from several bilateral channels too. Japan’s Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa is set to visit Washington this week for a second round of talks. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has hinted that a US-South Korea trade deal could be finalized as early as next week. US and India are reported to have agreed on the terms for a bilateral deal covering trade in goods, services, and critical sectors like e-commerce and minerals. Switzerland also announced it was among a group of 15 countries given “somewhat preferential treatment” in tariff talks, with Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter indicating that the 90-day truce could be extended for active negotiating partners.

    However, not all fronts are moving smoothly. Despite initial discussions, talks between the US and the EU have yet to yield tangible compromises. Progress remains slow, even in setting a basic framework for formal negotiations. The slow movement with Europe highlights that achieving broad global de-escalation is far from guaranteed.

    Meanwhile, the situation with China remains the murkiest. Rumors continue to swirl about informal discussions, but no clear confirmation has been provided by either side. Trump insists that some communication with Beijing is ongoing, while Chinese officials deny that any talks are happening. Although there were earlier hopes for de-escalation, Trump has reiterated that tariffs on China will remain in place unless “they give us something substantial.”

    Without a clear breakthrough or even a defined negotiation channel, US-China trade tensions remain a major overhang for global markets, tempering some of the broader optimism.

    European Strength Offers Hope, Caution Persists for US Indexes

    While US stocks have staged a strong rebound recently, the technical backdrop remains somewhat unconvincing. The recovery lacks decisive confirmation, particularly in DOW. In contrast, the outperformance seen in European markets is offering hope that the worst of the market correction could already be behind us. Particularly in the UK and Germany, technical signals suggest that early April’s steep selloff may have been a medium-term shakeout rather than the start of a long-term bearish trend.

    In the UK, FTSE ‘s breach of 55 D EMA (now at 8420.51) and break of 55 W EMA (now at 8260.66) suggest that corrective fall from 8900.82 has already completed at 7554.83. Price actions from 8908.82 is likely just a medium term consolidations pattern, rather than a long term bearish trend reversal. The range of the consolidations should be set between 38.2% retracement of 4898.79 to 8902.82 at 7376.99 and 8908.82.

    Nevertheless, for the near term, while further rise could be seen as long as 8166.53 support holds, FTSE should start to lose momentum above 55 D EMA.

    Germany’s DAX tells a similar story. The index’s corrective fall from the 23476.01 has likely completed at 18489.91. What we are seeing now is a medium-term consolidation rather than a full trend reversal. The range is set between 38.2% retracement of 8255.65 to 23476.01 at 17661.83 and 23476.01.

    For the near term, further rise is in favor as long as 21044.61 support hold. But DAX should lose momentum as it approaches 23476.01 high.

    Turning to the US, developments in Europe suggest that DOW may eventually find solid support from 38.2% retracement of 18213.65 to 45073.63 at 34813.12 to contain downside even in case of another fall, should another selloff occur. Still, firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 41361.53) is needed to indicate that fall from 45703.63 has completed. Or risk will remain on the downside for the near term.

    NASDAQ’s picture is a little bit more promising than DOW. Firm break of 55 D EMA (now at 17604.27) will indicate that fall from 2024.58 has completed at 14783.03, after defending 38.2% retracement of 6631.42 to 20204.58 at 15019.63. That should set the range for medium term consolidations for NASDAQ.

    Dollar Struggles Despite Risk Stabilization, Policy Uncertainty Remains a Drag

    While risk sentiment has shown signs of stabilizing in global markets, and even hints at a return of risk appetite, this does not necessarily imply a renewed interest in US assets. In particular, both the Dollar and US. Treasuries continue to face headwinds until investors see more policy consistency from the Trump administration. Markets remain wary of abrupt shifts in trade policy, tariff threats, and broader economic strategies, which cloud the overall investment climate for Dollar-based assets.

    Another important factor is the evolving US trade balance. Should the Trump administration succeed in narrowing the US trade deficit, there could be a meaningful structural impact on the demand for Dollar-denominated assets. A narrower deficit would mean fewer surplus Dollars circulating abroad to be recycled into US Treasuries and other assets, potentially pushing yields higher and softening the Dollar’s appeal at the same time, particularly if fiscal deficits remain large.

    Technically, Dollar Index’s recovery from 97.92 short term bottom is lacking decisive momentum. As long as 100.27 resistance holds, near term risk will remain on the downside for another fall through 97.92 sooner rather than later. Break of 97.92 will pave the way to 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97 next.

    Nevertheless, firm break of 100.27 would set the stage for stronger rebound to 38.2% retracement of 110.17 to 97.92 at 102.60, even still as a corrective move.

    NZD/JPY Extends Rebound, Bullish Reversal Hinges on 87.35 Break

    NZD/JPY extended the rebound from 79.79 last week as risk sentiment continued to improve. The breach of falling trend line resistance is a tentative sign that fall from 92.45 has completed at 79.79. Further rise is now in favor as long as 83.88 support holds.

    On the upside, decisive break of 87.35 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 99.01 to 79.79 at 87.13) will argue that corrective decline from 99.01 has already completed too. Further rally should then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 91.66.

    However, rejection by 87.13/35 will keep near term outlook bearish. Break of 83.88 support will bring retest of 79.79, and possibly resumption of the down trend from 99.01 too.

    EUR/CHF Weekly Outlook

    EUR/CHF’s stronger than expected rebound last week suggests that fall from 0.9660 has already completed at 0.9218, ahead of 0.9204 low. Rebound from 0.9218 is either a corrective move, or the third leg of the pattern from 0.9204. In either case, further rally is expected this week as long as 0.9336 support holds, towards 0.9660. However, break of 0.9336 will bring retest of 0.9204/18 support zone.

    In the bigger picture, prior rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9555) retains medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Firm break of 0.9204 (2024 low) will confirm resumption. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.9660 resistance holds.

    In the long term picture, overall long term down trend is still in force in EUR/CHF. Outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.9962) holds.



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  • A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil

    A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil


    It has been a brutally volatile week across global markets, driven by a whirlwind of US tariff implementations, abrupt reversals, and rapid retaliatons. Investors were left scrambling to make sense of the White House’s constantly shifting trade stance. We won’t attempt to recap every step of the tariff saga, when even members of the administration seemed unable to track the unfolding policy moves.

    The most consequential outcome of the week was the broad-based pressure on US assets. The sharp selloff in Treasuries drew the most concern, raising alarms over whether the bedrock of the financial markets is beginning to erode. That said, while the jump in yields was certainly eye-catching, it has yet to cross the threshold into full-blown crisis territory.

    US stocks, after plunging to their lowest levels in months mid-week, managed to stage a strong rebound. Key technical support levels held, keeping the long-term uptrend intact—for now. However, that doesn’t mean the risks are gone. If the mounting tariffs ultimately tip the US into recession, the bounce may prove to be nothing more than a bear market rally.

    Dollar also struggled, ending as the week’s worst performer. Despite rising yields and some risk-off mood, neither provided the greenback any meaningful support. Dollar Index is now on the verge of resuming its broader medium-term downtrend.

    In the broader forex markets, Sterling and Yen also underperformed. On the other end, Swiss Franc stood tall as the market’s safe-haven anchor, followed by Australian and New Zealand Dollars. Euro and Canadian Dollar ended the week in middle ground.

    Tariff Shock and Yield Spike Rattle Markets; Not a Crisis Yet, But Warnings Are Flashing

    The essence of the market chaos: US reciprocal tariffs officially went into effect—only to be paused within hours to allow room for negotiation, except for China. On the surface, that might have calmed markets. And indeed, it opened the door to dialogue, with Taiwan reportedly holding the first video talks, while delegations from the EU and Japan are en route for face-to-face meetings in Washington in the coming days.

    But on the other side of the equation was deepening hostilities between the US and China. Both sides escalated tariffs beyond economically meaningful levels, effectively moving toward full-scale trade decoupling. The narrative is no longer about negotiation—it’s about economic separation.

    What spooked markets the most wasn’t just the trade conflict, but the simultaneous selloff in US assets—equities, Dollar, and perhaps most importantly, Treasuries. This rare alignment of outflows suggested something deeper: a loss of confidence. Some speculate this is precisely why US President Donald Trump reversed course and paused the reciprocal tariffs—because of the violent reaction in the bond market.

    Indeed, Trump and his economic advisors have repeatedly cited the importance of keeping bond yields low to support the broader economic agenda. As yields spiked and refinancing costs soared, concerns within the White House likely escalated. A persistent rise in yields would undermine everything from fiscal stimulus to housing affordability and corporate balance sheets.

    There are several theories about what triggered the Treasury selloff. Some point to the unwinding of the “Treasury basis trade”—a leveraged strategy used by hedge funds that collapsed under margin stress. Others blame foreign governments, particularly China, for dumping US debt in retaliation.

    But perhaps the most straightforward explanation is the simplest: long-term investors are losing interest in US assets, shifting instead into alternatives like Gold in this time of uncertainty, which surged to fresh record highs this week.

    Importantly, not all global bond markets are suffering. Germany’s 10-year yield remained within a calm 2.5–2.7% range.

    Japan’s 10-year yield held steady around 1.3–1.4% after being pulled up by US yields.

    In contrast, US 10-year yields soared, nearing 4.6%, a stark rise from just 3.89% a week ago.

    Technically, the picture in US 10-year yields is worrying but not yet in panic mode. For the near term, the decline from 4.809 should have bottomed at 3.886% as a correction. As long as 4.289 support holds, further rise toward 4.809 is expected.

    That said, this is still within the bounds of a broad consolidation pattern from the 2023 peak at 4.997%. Current rally might just be one of the legs.

    However, if 10-year Treasury yields were to break decisively above the symbolic 5% level, the impact could be seismic. Borrowing costs across the economy would surge along, from mortgages to corporate debt, tightening financial conditions at a pace that could choke off growth.

    Beyond the US, such a move could trigger forced selling by foreign holders, particularly if trade tensions worsen or FX reserves are rebalanced. The result could be a broad and disorderly repricing of global assets, especially in equity markets and emerging economies, ushering in a new chapter where financial stability, rather than inflation, becomes the dominant concern.

    Stock Rebound Preserves Uptrend, But Recession Could Break the Spell

    The steep intra-week selloff in US equities, among the sharpest in years, has been met with an equally aggressive rebound. Key technical levels held, for example in DOW, which bounced decisively ahead of the 55-month EMA, preserving the long-term uptrend from the 2009 low. For now, market action points to a deep medium-term correction rather than the beginning of a full-blown bear market. However, it would be premature to call the all-clear.

    Many economists and central bankers globally have described the US tariff hikes as a textbook stagflationary shock—simultaneously dampening growth and fueling price pressures. According to estimates from the European Commission, the existing 10% blanket tariffs and the 25% metal duties could shave 0.8% to 1.4% off US GDP by 2027. For the EU, the impact is more muted at around 0.2%. But if the tariff regime becomes entrenched or if retaliations escalate further, those numbers could rise dramatically—especially with US-China tariffs not yet fully factored in.

    Inflation expectations are also flashing warning signs. While the March US CPI data delivered some relief by slowing more than expected, the University of Michigan’s consumer survey painted a grimmer picture. One-year inflation expectations surged to 6.7%—a level last seen in 1981—up sharply from 5.0% in March. Inflation could reaccelerate ahead if supply shocks persist or if inflation expectations become unanchored.

    Adding to the concern is the historical warning from the yield curve, something that we have mentioned a number of times. The spread between the US 10-year and 2-year Treasuries—the classic recession signal—inverted in mid-2022 and uninverted last August. Historically, this un-inversion has preceded recessions around 6 to 12 months. That puts the timeline for a economic downturn squarely within 2025. That clock is ticking.

    Technically, DOW’s defense of 55 M EMA (now at 3558.57) keeps long-term uptrend from 6369.96 (2009 low) alive. For the near term tough, firm break of 61.8% retracement of 45703.63 to 36611.78 at 41841.20 is needed to confirm that correction from 45703.63 has completed. Without that, the best investors can expect is range-bound consolidation.

    The worst-case scenario? Decisive break of 55 M EMA would open up deeper fall to 38.2% retracement of 6469.95 to 45703.64 at 30327.02 at least.

    Dollar Index Cracks 100 Psychological Level, Heading to 95?

    Dollar Index dived to as low as 99.01 last week as fall from 110.17 reaccelerated. The break of 100.15 support (2024 low) affirms the case that whole down trend from 114.77 (2022 high) is resuming. Further break of 99.57 (2023 low) should confirm this bearish case. Meanwhile, near term risk will stay heavily on the downside as long as 103.22 support turned resistance holds, even in case of recovery.

    So where will Dollar Index head to? Price actions from 114.77 are so far still viewed as a corrective pattern. The next line of defense could come at 38.2% retracement of 70.69 (2008 low) to 114.77 at 97.93. If not, the next target will be 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

    The development in EUR/USD should also be considered. Last week’s break of 1.1274 resistance (2023 high) should confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.9534 (2022 low). More importantly, EUR/USD is now breaking through the falling channel resistance that lasted more than 1.5 decade. Rise from 0.9534 is likely to extend to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916, or slightly further to 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 (2008 high) to 0.9534 at 1.2019.

    Given the EUR/USD’s bullish outlook, and that Yen is also strong against Dollar, Dollar index is more likely to hit above mentioned 94.97 projection level than not.

    USD/CAD Weekly Outlook

    USD/CAD’s fall from 1.4791 high continued last week and accelerated through 1.3946/76 key support zone. There is no sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.4791 to 1.4150 from 1.4414 at 1.3773. On the upside, break of 1.4150 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will stay bearish in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, the break of 1.3976 resistance turned support (2022 high) and 55 W EMA (now at 1.3992) indicates that a medium term is already in place at 1.4791. Fall from there would either be a correction to rise from 1.2005, or trend reversal. In either case, firm break of 38.2% retracement of 1.2005 (2021 low) to 1.4791 at 1.3727 will pave the way back to 61.8% retracement at 1.3069.

    In the long term picture, as long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.3479) holds, up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) should still resume through 1.4791 at a later stage. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will argue that the up trend has already completed, with rise from 1.2005 to 1.4791 as the fifth wave. 1.4791 would then be seen as a long term top and deeper medium term correction should then follow.



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  • Markets Soar on Tariff Truce, Reentry Signal or Perfect Exit Opportunity?

    Markets Soar on Tariff Truce, Reentry Signal or Perfect Exit Opportunity?


    US stocks staged a powerful relief rally overnight, snapping back from the recent tariff-induced collapse. All three major indexes posted gains not seen in years, marking a dramatic reversal in sentiment. Yet, despite the scale of the rebound, it remains unclear whether this marks the beginning of genuine investor re-entry—or simply a massive short-covering rally triggered by a temporary policy U-turn.

    What markets need now isn’t just a pause, but clarity and consistency. If the 90-day negotiation window devolves into more confusion, or if tariffs on China continue to escalate, the gains seen today could vanish just as quickly as they arrived.

    The crux of the matter is whether yesterday’s rally represents just a reflexive bounce driven by short-covering and algorithmic momentum? With the market having been stretched to deeply oversold levels after recent collapse, the slightest spark was bound to trigger a sharp relief jump.

    More improtantly, it is uncertain if long-term investors view this bounce as a reason to re-engage with US assets, or merely as an opportunity to exit at better levels. If the latter proves true, this rally could quickly fade into yet another bear market trap.

    The catalyst behind the surge came from US President Donald Trump’s abrupt announcement that new 10% tariffs on most US trade partners—technically in effect just hours earlier—would be paused for 90 days to facilitate negotiations.

    In contrast, the administration simultaneously escalated its economic conflict with China, announcing an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%. The White House reinforced the pressure with a warning: “Do not retaliate and you will be rewarded.”

    Technically, for DOW, this week’s low at 36,611.78 offers a potential base for near-term consolidation, especially given its proximity to 55 M EMA (now at 35595.76). However, any upside is likely to be capped by 61.8% retracement of 45073.63 to 36611.78 at 41841.20 to set the range for near term consolidations, well, probably for 90 days? Sustained break of 41841.20 is needed before declaring that this tariff crisis is over.

    In the currency markets, after all the volatility, Aussie is currently the strongest one for the week so far, followed by Kiwi, and then Loonie. Sterling is the worst performer, followed by Dollar, and then Euro. Swiss Franc and Yen are positioning in the middle.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 8.01%. Hong Kong HSI is up 1.96%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.93%. Singapore Strait Times is up 5.73%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.045 at 1.327. Overnight, DOW rose 7.87%. S&P 500 rose 9.52%. NASDAQ rose 12.16%. 10-year yield rose 0.138 to 4.400.

    Fed minutes highlight pre-tariff caution, hint at tough tradeoffs ahead

    The minutes from the FOMC’s March meeting revealed growing concern among policymakers about the economic outlook, particularly amid rising uncertainty. While these discussions occurred before the dramatic escalation of the US tariff war in April, the insights remain valuable.

    “Almost all” participants viewed inflation risks as tilted to the “upside”, while “downside” risks to employment and growth were also flagged—setting the stage for a policy dilemma.

    Some officials highlighted that the Fed could soon face “difficult tradeoffs,” especially if inflation remains elevated while job and growth prospects deteriorate.

    Notably, a few participants also warned that an “abrupt repricing of risk in financial markets” could magnify the impact of any negative economic shocks. Given what has since transpired with global markets in April, these comments seem prescient.

    While the minutes may now appear somewhat outdated, they nonetheless provide a crucial baseline for understanding how the Fed might react in an increasingly fragile environment.

    Japan’s PPI accelerates to 4.2% while import costs ease

    Japan’s PPI rose 4.2% yoy in March, a slight acceleration from February’s 4.1% yoy and topping expectations of 3.9% yoy rise. The increase was broad-based, with notable gains in food prices, which rose 3.1% yoy, and energy costs, with petroleum and coal prices surging by 8.6% yoy.

    Despite the uptick in domestic producer prices, import costs in Yen terms fell -2.2% yoy in March, extending the -0.9% decline in February. Export prices, however, rose a modest 0.3% yoy, slowing sharply from February’s 1.7% yoy growth.

    China’s CPI falls -0.1% yoy in March, PPI highlights persistent deflationary pressures

    China’s consumer inflation remained in negative territory for a second straight month in March, with CPI falling -0.1% yoy, missing expectations of 0.1% yoy increase. While the decline was narrower than February’s -0.7% yoy, it still reflects subdued demand pressures across the economy.

    Food prices was a drag, down -1.4% yoy, while service prices provided only modest support, rising 0.3% yoy. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, edged up to 0.5% yoy from 0.3% previously, offering a slight glimmer of resilience.

    However, with headline inflation still hovering around zero and signs of consumer caution persisting, the broader disinflation trend appears entrenched.

    On a monthly basis, CPI dropped -0.4% mom, following February’s -0.2% mom decline, suggesting continued weakness in household spending momentum.

    Meanwhile, producer prices extended their decline for a 30th straight month, with PPI dropping -2.5% yoy, deeper than the expected -2.3%.

    AUD/USD Daily Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.5987; (P) 0.6081; (R1) 0.6249; More…

    AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.5913 extended higher, and it’s now pressing 55 4H EMA (now at 0.6146). Sustained trading above there will should confirm short term bottoming,and bring stronger rebound towards 0.6388 resistance. Nevertheless, rejection by the EMA, followed by break of 0.6057 minor support will bring retest of 0.5913 low, and resumption of larger fall from 0.6941 at a later stage.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.6388 resistance holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:01 GBP RICS Housing Price Balance Mar 2% 8% 11%
    23:50 JPY Bank Lending Y/Y Mar 2.80% 3.10% 3.10% 3.00%
    23:50 JPY PPI Y/Y Mar 4.20% 3.90% 4.00% 4.10%
    01:30 CNY CPI M/M Mar -0.40% -0.20%
    01:30 CNY CPI Y/Y Mar -0.10% 0.10% -0.70%
    01:30 CNY PPI Y/Y Mar -2.50% -2.30% -2.20%
    12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Feb -0.90% -3.20%
    12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 4) 222K 219K
    12:30 USD CPI M/M Mar 0.20% 0.20%
    12:30 USD CPI Y/Y Mar 2.50% 2.80%
    12:30 USD CPI Core M/M Mar 0.30% 0.20%
    12:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Mar 3.00% 3.10%
    14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 60B 29B

     



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  • Market Turmoil Unleashed as Global Tariff Battlelines Drawn

    Market Turmoil Unleashed as Global Tariff Battlelines Drawn


    The global financial markets were shaken last week as US President Donald Trump’s long-anticipated reciprocal tariff plan arrived with a bang. The magnitude of the tariff rates, the number of countries impacted, and the sheer complexity of implementation shocked investors. What could have been a temporary setback quickly spiraled into a broader risk event, fueling sharp selloffs and potentially igniting a full-fledged bear market.

    Matters only worsened after China swiftly responded with its own retaliatory measures. The rhetoric on both sides is heating up. Trump, doubling down on his hardline stance, declared on social media that his “policies will never change” and accused China of panicking. Meanwhile, Chinese officials dismissed the US measures, mockingly claiming, “The market has spoken.”

    With Washington and Beijing locked in confrontation, global focus now turns to how the rest of the world will react. The first clear sign of diplomacy came from Vietnam, where General Secretary To Lam phoned Trump and offered to negotiate a deal to reduce tariffs on US exports to zero, in exchange for equal treatment. If this sets a precedent, it may provide insight into whether Trump’s long-term vision is truly a bilateral web of lowered trade barriers. Or, he has something else in his mind.

    Still, the true litmus test lies ahead with the US-EU trade negotiations. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has shown no signs of backing down, warning that the EU “holds a lot of cards” and that “all instruments are on the table.” Europe’s massive market and leadership in tech give it leverage, and should talks break down, the threat of firm and coordinated countermeasures looms large. The shape and tone of the US-EU discussions will be critical in determining whether a full-blown global trade war materializes, or if some de-escalation is still possible.

    In the currency markets, Swiss Franc emerged as the ultimate winner last week, solidifying its position as the top safe-haven asset, while Yen followed closely. Euro, notably, seems to be replacing Dollar as a safe-haven choice. The

    At the bottom of the currency ladder was the Aussie, which was hammered by China’s retaliation, given its economic dependence on Chinese demand. Kiwi followed while Sterling rounded out the bottom three. Loonie, and Dollar saw mixed results—gaining ground against commodity currencies but faltering against their safe-haven counterparts.

    Oversold Bounce Possible, Yet Trade War Escalations Keep Downside Risks Elevated

    Following last week’s brutal stock market selloff, there’s technical scope for a short-term rebound. Markets are deeply oversold, and some bargain-hunting or short coverers may lift equities from their recent lows in the days ahead. However, any recovery in risk sentiment will likely be capped by the still-heavy cloud of uncertainty surrounding the unfolding global tariff war.

    Despite the market’s hopes, it’s unrealistic to expect trade negotiations — especially those involving sweeping reciprocal tariffs and multiple major economies — to wrap up quickly. The threat of a prolonged standoff or even a complete breakdown in talks remains high. In such a case, a full-blown global trade war could be on the table, with wide-ranging consequences for investment, consumption, and global growth.

    Of particular concern is Europe’s position in this trade crossfire. Both the EU and ECB have previously flagged concerns that China could redirect excess supply to the EU if blocked by US tariffs. Such dumping would put further pressure on already weak growth and inflation in the region. To avoid this, Europe might be forced to erect its own trade barriers against China, risking retaliation and further fragmentation of global trade flows.

    In this increasingly fragile environment, the risks for a synchronized global slowdown looms large. However, unlike the Great Recession of 2008-09, unlikely the country could act as a buffer this time. China itself is now a central target in the trade conflict, and its export-driven model could face unprecedented pressure from multiple fronts. That leaves the world vulnerable to a more prolonged and widespread economic downturn if trade tensions escalate further.

    For traders and investors, the message is clear. Any near-term rally should be treated with caution. Rebounds may be sharp, but as long as key technical resistance levels in major indexes like DOW, Nikkei, or DAX remain intact, it’s premature to call it a return to normal. Until then, the base case remains a fragile market dominated by geopolitical risk, with any relief rallies vulnerable to sudden reversals.

    Technically, for DOW, it’s now at an important support zone of the long term rising trend line and 38.2% retracement of 28660.94 to 45071.29 at 38802.54. A rebound from current level would be reasonable, but risk will stay heavily on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 41260.37) holds. However, sustained break of 38802.54 will raise the change of even deeper correction to next key support at 55 M EMA (now at 35554.06).

    NASDAQ’s outlook was worse with the break of 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 20204.68 at 16340.36. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 17770.58) holds. Fall from 20204.58 should be on track to 55 M EMA (now at 14387.21) on next fall.

    Nikkei’s steep fall confirmed that corrective pattern from 42426.77 (2024 high) has already started the third leg. Strong bounce from current level will keep Nikkei inside the long term rising channel. But risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 37604.93) holds. Sustained trading below the channel support will bring even deeper fall to 55 M EMA (now at 31405.39) or even further to 38.2% retracement of 6994.89 (2009 low) to 42426.77 at 28891.80.

    Outlook in DAX is slightly better thanks to the strong rally in March. But still, near term risk will be on the downside as long as 55 D EMA (now at 22102.60) holds. Fall from 23476.01 is seen as corrective the up trend from 11862.84 (2022 low only). There are a few levels ahead that could help floor the correction, including 55 W EMA (now at 19768.44), trend line support at around 19200, and 38.2% retracement of 11862.84 to 23476.01 at 19039.78.

    Will 100 Be the Savior for Sliding Dollar Index?

    Dollar Index staged a notable late-week rebound, closing at 103.02 on Friday, well off the week’s low of 101.26. The move helped ease immediate downside pressure. The 100 psychological level, along with the 55 M EMA (now at 101.01) could provide a floor in the near term and turn the index into consolidations. Still, firm break of 104.68 resistance is needed to confirm short term bottoming first. Or risk will remain on the downside.

    From a broader perspective, the fall from 110.17 is seen as the third leg of a larger correction originating from 114.77 (2022 high). Decisive break below key 99.57/100.15 support zone would open the door for deeper medium term fall to decade-long rising channel support (now at 95.80), or even further to 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

    A critical variable in Dollar’s path is the development of US Treasury yields. The sharp drop in the 10-year yield last week reinforces the view that the broader corrective pattern from 4.997 (2023 high) is in another downleg.

    Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 W EMA (now at 4.255) holds. Further decline is likely to 3.603 support.

    Even so, solid technical support should emerge from the 38.2% retracement of 0.398 to 4.997 at 3.240 to contain downside. That should provide some support to floor Dollar’s decline in the medium term.

    Swiss Franc Dominates in Europe, Would It Cap EUR/GBP Advance?

    Swiss Franc ended last week as the strongest European currency, outperforming both Euro and the risk-sensitive Sterling by a mile.

    GBP/CHF’s break of 1.1086 support suggests that whole rally from 1.0741 has completed at 1.1501. Deeper fall should be seen back to 1.0741 support first. Firm break there will argue that long term down trend is ready to resume through 1.0183 (2022 low). Meanwhile, above 1.1193 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.

    As for EUR/CHF, focus is back on 0.9331 support after the sharp fall. Firm break there should confirm that rebound form 0.9204 has completed at 0.9660. More importantly, that would also confirm rejection by the long term channel resistance. Larger down trend might then be ready to resume through 0.9204.

    EUR/GBP resumed the rise from 0.8239 and hit as high as 0.8522, just shy of 100% projection of 0.8239 to 0.8448 from 0.8314 at 0.8523. The break of medium term falling channel resistance is a bullish sign. It’s also plausible that down trend from 0.9267 (2022 high) has completed at 0.8221, just ahead of 0.8201 key support (2022 low). Firm break of 0.8523 will affirm this case, and target 0.8624 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 0.9267 to 0.8221 at 0.8621) for confirmation of bullish reversal.

    However, for EUR/GBP to extend its bull run decisively, support is needed from a rebound in EUR/CHF. If EUR/CHF breaks down further below 0.9331 and drags on Euro more broadly, EUR/GBP would struggle to gain traction or even come under pressure itself.

    AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD in free fall

    Commodity currencies all declined broadly on risk aversion. But Aussie was the worst by far, particularly hard-hit following China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs against the US.

    AUD/CAD’s break of 0.8562 (2023 low) suggests that whole down trend from 0.9991 (2021 high) is resuming. Outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8853 support turned resistance holds, even in case of recovery. Next target is 161.8% projection of 0.9375 to 0.9128 from 0.8853 at 0.8283.

    AUD/NZD’s break of 1.0789 support suggests that rise from 1.0567 has already completed at 1.1177 already. More importantly, whole rebound from 1.0469 (2022 low) could have finished as a three-wave corrective rise too. Near term outlook will now remain bearish as long as 1.0904 support turned resistance holds. Deeper fall would be see back to 1.0567 support next. Firm break there will raise the chance that whole down trend from 1.1489 (2022 high) is ready to resume through 1.0469.

    USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

    USD/JPY’s fall from 158.86 resumed last week and hits as low as 144.54. But a temporary low should be formed with subsequent recovery. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 151.20 resistance holds. Below 144.54 will target 61.8% projection of 158.86 to 146.52 from 151.20 at 143.57. Break there will target 139.57 low.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 137.30) and even below.



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  • Global Market Rout Deepens Ahead of US Jobs Data

    Global Market Rout Deepens Ahead of US Jobs Data


    There’s no relief in sight for the markets as risk aversion extends into Friday’s Asian session. Japan’s Nikkei is leading the losses once again, falling over -3% and cementing a near 10% weekly drop — the worst performance since early 2020. Singapore’s Strait Times Index has finally caught up with the global rout, slumping nearly -3% as traders there digest the full extent of the tariff-driven global selloff. Meanwhile, Hong Kong and China markets are taking a breather, closed for the Ching Ming Festival holiday. But the pause might only delay—not prevent—the contagion, as sentiment across asset continues to sour.

    US futures point to more pain ahead, with DOW at risk of closing below the psychological 40k psychological level this week. Markets appear unconvinced that a bottom is in sight, especially with geopolitical uncertainty and trade war escalation clouding the outlook. One of the clearest signs of deepening concern is the move in US Treasury yields. 10-year yield has broken below the critical 4% psychological support during Asian session, for the first time in six months. A weekly close below 4% could mark a seismic shift in sentiment, likely reinforcing safe-haven flows and risk aversion even further.

    Today’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report is the marquee event, but its interpretation is unlikely to offer a clear rescue narrative. A strong report won’t necessarily be bullish, as markets are more focused on looming global trade frictions than short-term economic strength. Conversely, a weak NFP print might push Fed rate cut expectations higher, but would also reinforce fears that the economy is already sliding into a downturn. In short, there’s little in this data that could provide comfort in the current climate.

    In currencies, despite the steep selloff, Dollar is not the weakest performer this week. That spot goes to the Aussie, followed by the greenback and Kiwi. At the other end, the new safe-haven trio of Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen, and Euro are leading the pack. Sterling and Loonie sit in the middle of the spectrum.

    Technically, Silver’s steep decline yesterday indicates that rise from 28.74 has already completed at 34.56, after rejection by 34.84 key resistance. Fall from 34.56 is now seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 34.84. Deeper fall should be seen to 30.78 support first. Firm break there will target 28.74 support, and possibly below.

    In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is down -3.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is down -0.147 at 1.204. Singapore Strait Times is down -2.69%. Hong Kong and China are on holiday. Overnight, DOW fell -3.98%. S&P 500 fell -4.84%. NASDAQ fell -5.97%. 10-year yield fell -0.141 to 4.055.

    NFP unlikely to offer relief, miss could cement Q2 fed cut

    Today’s US non-farm payrolls report comes as the markets are already reeling from this week’s tariff shock. With consensus expecting a 128k rise in jobs for March and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%, the print itself may not do much to lift sentiment or Dollar, even if it exceeds expectations.

    On the other hand, a downside surprise could further shift the odds in favor of a Fed rate cut in Q2. Currently, fed funds futures suggest nearly an 80% probability of a 25bps reduction in June.

    While Fed has signaled patience, deteriorating jobs data may leave policymakers with little choice but to move sooner rather than later. Such development would in turn apply further pressure on Dollar.

    Recent data paints a murky picture: the employment components in both ISM manufacturing (44.7) and services (46.2) surveys fell deep into contraction in March. ADP report came in at a modest 155k growth.

    Whether today’s NFP captures the full extent of that weakness as indicated by ISM data remains to be seen, but the underlying trend is clearly deteriorating.

    Fed’s Jefferson: Important to take time and think carefully amid sweeping policy shifts

    Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson reiterated in a speech overnight that there is “no need to be in a hurry” to adjust policy further. Current policy settings are appropriately positioned amid a period of sweeping changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, and regulatory policies.

    He stressed the importance of assessing the “cumulative effect” of these evolving policies before making any shifts in the monetary path.

    Commenting on the new of import tariffs announced this week after the formal remarks, Jefferson acknowledged the heightened uncertainty such measures introduce, adding that they could weigh on household sentiment and business investment.

    In this environment, Jefferson said it is important to “take our time and think carefully” as it evaluates the broader economic impact.

    Fed’s Cook: Risks tilt toward high inflation and slower growth

    Fed Governor Lisa Cook highlighted in a speech overnight that her baseline forecast sees the US economy will “slow moderately” this year, with a slight uptick in unemployment. Also, inflation progress will “stall in the near term”, because of tariffs and other policy changes.

    Cook acknowledged the potential for a more optimistic scenario in which new policies prove minimally disruptive and consumer demand holds up, allowing for stronger-than-expected growth.

    However, she placed “more weight on scenarios where risks are skewed to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth”.

    Given the elevated risks and uncertainty, Cook supports the case to keep interest rates unchanged for now. With both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate facing uncertainty and risks, she stressed that policymakers must remain “patient but attentive”.

    BoJ’s Ueda: US tariffs likely to pressure Japan’s economy

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that the 24% tariffs imposed by the US on Japanese goods could have broad implications. He emphasized that heightened uncertainty over the economic outlook may weigh on corporate sentiment and trigger volatile market behavior. This, in turn, could place “downward pressure on global and Japanese economies”.

    Meanwhile, Ueda noted that the effect on inflation remains uncertain, as the tariffs could either suppress prices by weakening demand or push them higher through supply chain disruptions.

    Despite these concerns, Ueda maintained a cautiously optimistic view on Japan’s economy. He pointed out that corporate sentiment remains positive, and capital expenditure plans are stronger than in the same period of prior years.

    He referred to the latest Tankan survey as supportive of BoJ’s baseline view that Japan’s economy is “recovering moderately”. Still, Ueda noted that the survey, conducted from late February to March 31, may not have fully captured the impact of the US tariff announcements.

    BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, also speaking at the session, reiterated that the central bank remains committed to adjusting rates if the likelihood of achieving its 2% inflation target increases.

    Uchida emphasized that future policy decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, based on updated forecasts, “without any preconception”.

    USD/CHF Daily Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8483; (P) 0.8658; (R1) 0.8769; More…

    USD/CHF’s steep decline is still in progress and there is no sign of bottoming yet. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9196 to 0.8757 from 0.8854 at 0.8415. On upside, above 0.8617 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recover should be limited below 0.8757 support turned resistance to bring another fall.

    In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9223 key resistance keep medium term outlook bearish. That is, larger fall from 1.0342 (2017 high) is not completed yet. Firm break of 0.8332 (2023 low) will confirm down trend resumption. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0146 (2022 high) to 0.8332 from 0.9196 at 0.8075.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:30 JPY Overall Household Spending Y/Y Feb -0.50% -0.70% 0.80%
    06:00 EUR Germany Factory Orders M/M Feb 3.30% -7.00%
    06:45 EUR France Industrial Output M/M Feb 0.50% -0.60%
    08:30 GBP Construction PMI Mar 46.7 44.6
    12:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls Mar 128K 151K
    12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Mar 4.10% 4.10%
    12:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings M/M Mar 0.30% 0.30%
    12:30 CAD Net Change in Employment Mar 10.4K 1.1K
    12:30 CAD Unemployment Rate Mar 6.70% 6.60%

     



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  • Investors Await Clarity as Trump’s Trade Plan Nears Unveiling

    Investors Await Clarity as Trump’s Trade Plan Nears Unveiling


    Risk-off sentiment has returned to European markets and US futures as traders await the long-anticipated announcement of the United States’ reciprocal tariffs, scheduled for 2000 GMT. After months of speculation and political posturing, today is expected to bring the concrete details of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping reciprocal tariffs plan. Markets are hoping for clarity on which countries and sectors will be affected, the magnitude of the levies, when they will take effect, and whether any exemptions will be granted.

    While the announcement itself may provide clarity to a certain extent, hopefully, it’s far from the end of the story. A big unknown remains how major trading partners, especially the European Union, will respond. Retaliatory measures are expected, but the scale, scope, and timing remain uncertain. And beyond that, markets are already looking to Washington’s next move—will the US escalate further if other nations push back?

    On the more hopeful side, many still believe that this will eventually culminate at the negotiating table, where barriers are eased rather than raised. Historically, tariff wars have led to tough talks and eventual compromises. However, any such diplomatic resolution would likely be a long process and do little to ease near-term volatility or economic strain.

    Pessimists, on the other hand, are concerned that the true aim of the US isn’t merely reciprocity, but reshoring manufacturing and breaking long-standing trade norms. These goals require very different approaches and outcomes. The former could lead to quick concessions, the latter a prolonged and potentially damaging realignment of global supply chains.

    There is a chance of a short-term relief rally in stocks if today’s announcement is less severe than feared. However, any bounce could be short-lived. For S&P 500, downside risks remain dominant as long as 5786.95 resistance holds. The larger corrective fall from 6147.47 would still be in play. Next target would be 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 6147.47 at 5132.89 after the recovery, if any, completes.

    In currency markets, Kiwi and Aussie are leading today followed by Sterling. while Loonie lags behind at the bottomed, followed by Dollar, and Swiss Franc. Euro and Yen are positioning in the middle.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.87%. DAX is down -1.63%. CAC is down -0.91%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.043 at 4.609. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.036 at 2.661. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei rose 0.28%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.02%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.05%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.37%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.025 to 1.479.

    US ADP jobs grow 155k, pay growth cools further

    US ADP private sector employment rose by 155k in March, exceeding expectations of 120k. There were 24k positions added in goods-producing sectors and 132k in services.

    Employers of all sizes contributed to the growth, with small firms leading the way, adding 52k jobs, followed by large and medium-sized businesses with 59k and 43k respectively.

    Despite the strong employment numbers, wage growth continued to decelerate. Year-over-year pay gains slowed to 4.6% for job-stayers and 6.5% for job-changers. The premium for switching jobs fell to 1.9 percentage points—the lowest in the series since September.

    ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson commented that despite “policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers,” the headline job number was a positive indicator for the economy and businesses of all sizes.

    ECB’s Lagarde: Tariffs harmful globally, often lead back to negotiation table

    ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that the global effects of US-led tariffs will be “negative,” though the extent of the damage depends heavily on the scope, duration, and targeted products.

    In an interview with Ireland’s Newstalk radio, she emphasized that the broader implications for global trade and growth would vary, but the potential for lasting disruption is real.

    Lagarde also noted that history shows such trade escalations often end in talks rather than prolonged battles.

    “Quite often those escalation of tariffs, because they prove harmful, even for those who inflict it, lead to negotiation tables,” she said, suggesting that any initial damage might eventually give way to diplomatic resolutions and the removal of trade barriers.

    ECB’s Schnabel: Trade fragmentation risks rekindling inflation, hitting growth

    ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned today that a global trade war could cause a sharp resurgence in inflation and weigh heavily on growth.

    In a speech, she highlighted that a severe disruption in global trade flows could lift inflation by several percentage points in the early years.

    She added that even a “mild decoupling” scenario would still have a meaningful impact—adding up to 1% to inflation and taking years to unwind.

    BoJ’s Ueda: US tariffs pose short-term inflation risk, long-term growth uncertainty

    BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said today that the ramifications of US tariff policy remain “highly uncertain” and could significantly affect global trade.

    Speaking to Japan’s parliament, Ueda emphasized that the ultimate impact would depend on the “range and scale” of the tariffs being implemented. He also noted that beyond trade flows, a key concern lies in “how the tariffs could affect the sentiment and spending of households and companies.”

    Ueda further highlighted that while US inflation may rise in the short term due to higher import costs, the longer-term effect is less predictable. He suggested that elevated tariffs could eventually weigh on US economic growth, which in turn might dampen inflationary pressures over time.

    USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 149.01; (P) 149.58; (R1) 150.19; More…

    Range trading continues in USD/JPY and outlook is unchanged. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. Corrective rise from 146.52 could have completed at 151.20 already. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 151.29 resistance holds. Below 148.69 will bring retest of 146.52 low first. Firm break there will resume whole decline from 158.86 towards 139.57 support next.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    21:45 NZD Building Permits M/M Feb 0.70% 2.60%
    23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Mar -3.10% -1.50% -1.80%
    00:30 AUD Building Permits M/M Feb -0.30% -1.40% 6.30% 6.90%
    12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Mar 155K 120K 77K 84K
    14:00 USD Factory Orders M/M Feb 0.50% 1.70%
    14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.4M -3.3M

     



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  • Global Markets Plunge, Aussie Down Ahead of RBA

    Global Markets Plunge, Aussie Down Ahead of RBA


    Risk aversion is sweeping through global financial markets today, with equities across Asia and Europe plunging ahead of the US’s so-called tariff “Liberation Day” on April 2. The selloff began in Asia, and continued through European Session. US futures are also pointing sharply lower, with the tech-heavy NASDAQ bearing the brunt of the pressure. Meanwhile, Gold continues to surge, with prices pushing above 3120 and showing no signs of slowing.

    Currency markets reflect the prevailing risk-off tone, with Yen leading gains as investors seek refuge. Dollar and Sterling are also relatively firm. Aussie, Kiwi and Loonie are the weakest performers. Euro and Swiss Franc are trading mixed in the middle.

    Australia’s RBA decision tomorrow will be in focus, though it’s unlikely to trigger fireworks. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 4.10%, emphasizing its vigilance on inflation while pushing back on expectations for a rapid easing cycle.

    The big four banks are split on the path forward. CBA, Westpac, and NAB anticipate three more RBA cuts this year starting in May, subject to Australia’s Q1 CPI report due April 2. ANZ, on the other hand, sees just one more cut in August, which would leave the cash rate at 3.85%.

    Technically, Nikkei broke through 35987.13 to resume the decline from 40398.23. The development affirms that case that corrective pattern from 42426.77 (2024 high) is already in its third leg. Firm break of 61.8% projection of 40398.23 to 35987.13 from 38220.69 at 35494.62 could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 33809.58. If realized, the next fall in Nikkei would likely be accompanied by another down leg in USD/JPY.

    In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -1.26%. DAX is down -1.73%. CAC is down -1.71%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.051 at 4.660. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.04 at 2.695. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -4.05%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.31%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.46%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.23%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.066 to 1.488.

    ECB Lagarde: Europe must march toward economic independence amid tariff threats

    ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for Europe to assert more control over its economic future in light of looming US tariffs, set to begin on April 2.

    In a France Inter radio interview, Lagarde reframed the narrative around “Liberation Day,” saying that while the US sees it as a move toward sovereignty, Europe must seize it as an inflection point—“a march toward independence.”

    Lagarde reiterated her previous estimates that tariffs from the US could shave around 0.3% off Eurozone growth in the first year. Should Europe retaliate with reciprocal measures, the negative impact could deepen to as much as 0.5%.

    On inflation, Lagarde noted that keeping it in check remains a “constant battle.” She stressed that while some progress has been made, inflation needs to fall in a sustainable way. That, she said, requires a carefully calibrated interest rate policy.

    ECB’s Panetta: Uncertainty demands caution on rate cuts

    Italian ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta warned that the battle against inflation “cannot yet be said to be over.” and urged caution in the timing of interest rate cuts.

    In a speech today, Panetta pointed to the heightened uncertainty stemming from “contradictory” announcements on US trade policy, suggesting that such unpredictability complicates the ECB’s path forward. As a result, the central bank must continue to monitor “all the factors that could hinder the return to the 2% target”

    Panetta emphasized the balancing act the ECB now faces. On one hand, subdued consumption and investment, driven by geopolitical tensions and weak Eurozone growth, are helping to ease inflationary pressures.

    But on the other hand, the resurgence of uncertainty—particularly around US tariffs—means the ECB must remain vigilant and not rush into policy loosening.

    Japan’s industrial production beats with 2.5% mom growth in Feb

    Japan’s industrial production rose 2.5% mom in February, beating market expectations of 1.9% mom gain. The strong growth was driven by key tech-related sectors, with chipmaking machinery output jumping 8.2% and electronic parts and devices surging 10.1%.

    A survey by Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry projects continued, albeit modest, gains in output of 0.6% mom in March and 0.1% mom in April.

    While the headline data is encouraging, the METI acknowledged that the outlook could quickly shift. Though no direct production impact from the proposed US tariffs has been reported yet, METI emphasized the need to monitor the situation more closely going forward.

    On the consumer side, retail sales grew just 1.4% yoy, missing expectations of a 2.4% rise.

    NZ ANZ business confidence dips to 57.5, rising inflation expectations stir doubts over RBNZ cuts

    New Zealand’s ANZ Business Confidence dipped slightly from 58.4 to 57.5 in March. Own Activity Outlook improved from 45.1 to 48.6.

    However, the data also brought a clear warning on inflationary pressures. Cost expectations surged from 71.3 to 74.1, the highest level in a year. Pricing intentions climbed from 46.2 to 51.3, marking the strongest since May 2023.

    Perhaps more importantly, one-year inflation expectations also ticked up from 2.53% to 2.63%, inching further above the RBNZ’s 2% midpoint target.

    ANZ flagged the rising inflation signals as “a little disconcerting,” cautioning that these developments could influence how enthusiastic RBNZ will be about delivering further rate cuts.

    A rate cut at the April meeting appears locked in, and a second in May is viewed as likely. However, ANZ noted that the odds of a third cut in July are now “more of a coin toss.”

    China’s official PMI manufacturing rises to 50.5, but labor market lags

    China’s official PMI data for March offered modest optimism, with the manufacturing index rising from 50.2 to 50.5, matching expectations and marking its highest level in a year.

    Sub-indices for production and new orders both improved to 52.6 and 51.8, respectively. However, employment index slipped to 48.2, highlighting persistent weakness in labor market conditions within the manufacturing sector.

    Non-manufacturing activity also improved slightly, with the PMI climbing from 50.4 to 50.8, beating expectations of 50.5.

    Still, employment in the non-manufacturing sector deteriorated, with the index falling to 45.8, as both the services and construction sectors shed workers.

    AUD/USD Mid-Day Report

    Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.6275; (P) 0.6293; (R1) 0.6306; More…

    Intraday bias in AUD/USD is back on the downside with break of 0.6257 support. Fall from 0.6390 should now target 0.6186 next. Firm break there e will indicate that corrective pattern from 0.6087 has completed and larger fall from 0.6941 is ready to resume. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 0.6329 resistance holds, in case of recovery.

    In the bigger picture, fall from 0.6941 (2024 high) is seen as part of the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 0.8006 to 0.6169 from 0.6941 at 0.5806. In any case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 0.6467) holds.

    Economic Indicators Update

    GMT CCY EVENTS ACT F/C PP REV
    23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Feb P 2.50% 1.90% -1.10%
    23:50 JPY Retail Trade Y/Y Feb 1.40% 2.40% 4.40%
    00:00 NZD ANZ Business Confidence Mar 57.5 58.4
    00:30 AUD Private Sector Credit M/M Feb 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
    01:30 CNY NBS Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.5 50.5 50.2
    01:30 CNY NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI Mar 50.8 50.5 50.4
    05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Feb 2.40% -1.90% -4.60%
    06:00 EUR Germany Import Price Index M/M Feb 0.30% -0.10% 1.10%
    06:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales M/M Feb 0.80% 0.00% 0.20%
    08:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Feb 0.20% 1.10% 1.30%
    08:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals Feb 65K 66K 66K
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI M/M Mar P 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%
    12:00 EUR Germany CPI Y/Y Mar P 2.20% 2.30%
    13:45 USD Chicago PMI Mar 45.4 45.5

     



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  • Markets Rush to Safe Haven as Tariff Clock Ticks Down

    Markets Rush to Safe Haven as Tariff Clock Ticks Down


    While US investors managed to stay relatively composed through most of last week, the calm cracked heading into the weekend. Stocks saw extended selloffs, Treasury yields dropped, and Gold surged to yet another record high — all classic signs of a decisive flight to safety. With risk appetite now clearly under pressure, traders are no longer waiting to see what happens next. They’ve begun positioning defensively ahead of April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day,” when the US is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs.

    That looming event, along with inevitable retaliatory measures from trading partners, has injected a fresh wave of uncertainty into the outlook. Risk-off sentiment is likely to dominate US markets in the near term, at least until the full scale of the tariff fallout becomes clear — including possible re-retaliations.

    A big question is whether European markets, which showed notable resilience through March, can continue to defy the global jitters. Stocks in Germany and the UK have largely outperformed US peers, and Euro has led major currencies higher for the month. But the divergence might be tested soon, especially if the trade conflict spills into sectors crucial to the Eurozone’s export-heavy economy.

    Meanwhile, forex markets have remained relatively stable, with most major pairs stuck inside the prior week’s ranges. Kiwi was the lone exception. However, late-week price action across several currency pairs — particularly EUR/USD — suggests that breakouts may be imminent. The common currency is showing signs of bullish potential, with traders watching closely to see whether March strength can evolve into something even more meaningful.

    Ultimately, April could be a make-or-break month for the Euro. Either it confirms a genuine bullish turn, reversing the multi-decade downtrend, or it becomes just another short-lived bounce in a longer-term bearish cycle. Otherwise, the March rally risks being remembered as another false dawn in the common currency’s struggle to reverse its long-term decline.

    Wall Street Sinks as Markets Front-Run Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariff Blitz

    US equities closed out the week with sharp losses, as fears over the looming escalation in trade tensions and persistent inflation sent risk sentiment spiraling. S&P 500 fell -1.53% on the week, while DOW dropped -0.96%. Tech bore the brunt of the selloff, with NASDAQ sliding -2.59%. That puts the NASDAQ on track for a painful monthly decline of over -8%, which would mark its worst monthly performance since December 2022.

    The market is being squeezed from two ends. On one side, uncertainty over the scope and scale of US tariffs is weighing on sentiment. On the other, resilient inflation data, especially in core readings, is reinforcing expectations that Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Together, these twin pressures are raising fears of a broader slowdown in consumer spending, business investment, and overall economic growth, with the risk of tipping the US into recession.

    Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs have already been in place, but tensions intensified last week as he announced a fresh 25% levy on imported cars and auto parts. That was a mere prelude to what he has dubbed “Liberation Day” on April 2, when the broader reciprocal tariff regime is expected to be unveiled. Stock markets may already be bracing for impact, with traders possibly front-running the announcement, despite the usual quarter-end rebalancing flows.

    The broader concern is that even after the April 2 announcement, the tariff saga won’t be over. Canada and the EU are almost certain to respond with retaliations, and China’s stance remains unclear. Others, like the UK and Australia, are expected to hold back. But should retaliation begin to pile up, there is every chance that Trump will double down with even more aggressive measures, setting off a full-blown global trade war.

    Still, there is a glimmer of hope. If current market anxiety is more about the “uncertainty” surrounding tariffs rather than the “actual impact” of tariffs themselves, there may be room for a sentiment rebound once the details are made clear — hopefully sometime in Q2.

    But that’s a big assumption, and one that relies heavily on the scope, implementation, and global response to the tariffs.

    Technically, S&P 500’s rebound from 5504.65 should have completed at 5786.95, ahead of falling 55 D EMA (now at 5833.15). Focus for the next few days will be back on 5504.65 support. Firm break there will resume the corrective decline from 6147.47 high to 38.2% retracement of 3491.58 to 6147.43 at 5132.89. Strong support should be seen there to contain downside and bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

    Similarly, NASDAQ’s corrective recovery from 17238.23 should have completed at 18281.13, ahead of falling 55 D EMA (now at 18608.86). Break of 17238.23 in the next week days will resume the corrective fall from 20204.58 to 38.2% retracement of 10088.82 to 20204.58 at 16340.36. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. However, firm break there will pave the way to 15708.53 support next.

    Yields Tumble on Safe Haven Flows, Dollar Index Relatively Resilient

    US 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply on Friday, even as core PCE inflation surprised to the upside. The data highlighted persistent inflationary pressures, with the core PCE accelerating to 2.8% yoy, above expectations and well above Fed’s 2% target. Typically, such data would push yields higher as markets price out rate cuts. However, Friday’s yield decline suggests a different narrative dominated—one of risk aversion.

    Technically, corrective recovery from 4.106 could have already completed at 4.387 after hitting falling 55 D EMA (now at 4.3650). Break of 4.174 support will argue that the whole decline from 4.809 is ready to resume through 4.106 short term bottom. Next target will then be 61.8% projection of 4.809 to 4.106 from 4.387 at 3.952, which is below 4% psychological level.

    More importantly, the next fall will solidify that decline from 4.809 is another leg inside the medium term pattern from 4.997 (2023 high) with risk of extending to 3.603 (2024 low) and below.

    Dollar Index only dipped slightly on Friday and the development argues that corrective recovery from 103.19 might still extend. But even in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 55 D EMA (now at 105.64). Break of 103.19 will resume the fall from 110.17 to 100.15 support next.

    Crucially, the next fall will further solidify the case that decline from 110.17 is the third leg of the pattern from 114.77 (2022 high). Break of 100.15 support will pave the way through 99.57 (2023 low) to 100% projection of 114.77 to 99.57 from 110.17 at 94.97.

    March Belongs to Europe, But Can Momentum Survive April’s Storm?

    Despite rising global trade tensions and the looming threat of reciprocal US tariffs, European currencies and assets have emerged as the standout performers for March. In the equity space, major European indices like Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE have remained relatively insulated from the sharp selloff seen on Wall Street.

    Meanwhile, Euro has led the charge in the currency markets, with Sterling and, to a lesser extent, Swiss Franc following closely. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether this resilience in European markets can be sustained or even turn into renewed momentum.

    Technically, with 8474.41 resistance turned support intact, FTSE’s price actions from 8908.82 are viewed as a sideway consolidation pattern only. Larger up trend is expected resume through 8908.82 to 100% projection of 7404.08 to 8474.41 from 8002.34 at 9072.67 at a later stage.

    As for the stronger DAX, outlook is staying bullish with 22226.34 support intact, which is close to 55 D EMA (now at 22150.63). Another rise is till expected to 161.8% projection of 14630.21 to 18892.92 from 17024.82 at 23921.87, or even further to 24000 psychological level.

    It’s also important for EUR/USD. The near term pull back from 1.0953 could have already completed at 1.0731, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 1.0358 to 1.0953 at 1.0726. Break of 1.0857 minor resistance should affirm this bullish case, and push EUR/USD through 1.0953 to resume the whole rally from 1.0176.

    More significantly, the next rally would set up EUR/USD for a test on key resistance between 1.1274 (2023 high) and multi-decade falling channel resistance (now at around 1.1380). This resistance zone is crucial to determine whether EUR/USD is reversing the long term down trend.

    USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

    USD/JPY recovered further to 151.20 last week but retreated sharply ahead of 151.29 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 158.86 to 146.52 at 151.23). Initial bias remains neutral first and outlook stay bearish. On the downside, below 149.53 minor support will argue that the corrective recovery has completed and bring retest of 146.52 low. Firm break there will resume whole fall from 158.86. However, firm break of 151.23/9 will turn bias back to the upside for 154.79 resistance instead.

    In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low), with fall from 158.86 as the third leg. Strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.

    In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.94).



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