Tag: Technical Analysis

  • GBP/USD retreats from a multi-month top amid some market repositioning

    GBP/USD retreats from a multi-month top amid some market repositioning


    GBP/USD trades with negative bias below mid-1.2900s, downside seems limited ahead of US CPI

    The GBP/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and erodes a part of the previous day’s strong move up to over a four-month peak, around the 1.2965 area. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.2935 region, though the downtick lacks bearish conviction as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. 

    The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will play a key role in influencing market expectations about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) demand and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. In the meantime, some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial data assists the buck to recover a part of the previous day’s slide to its lowest level since mid-October and acts as a headwind for the currency pair. Read more…

    GBP/USD shrugs off tariff fears as Pound continues to recover ground

    GBP/USD extended its recent bullish rally on Tuesday, shrugging off ongoing trade war concerns that are weighing down American market centers. Cable rose a little over one-half of one percent, clipping into the 1.2950 level for the first time in 18 weeks.

    US data remains the focal point for GBP/USD traders. UK economic data remains extremely limited on the data docket this week, but key US data releases are lined up one after another throughout most of this week. The US JOLTS job openings data was a bit stronger than anticipated, offering some stability to shaken markets. Job postings rose to 7.74M in January, exceeding the forecast of 7.63M and up from December’s revised figure of 7.51M, adjusted down from 7.6M. Read more…

    GBP/USD climbs above 1.2920 as trade war fears weaken USD

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its gains versus the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the latter continued to plunge due to controversial trade policies by United States (US) President Donald Trump. He announced an additional 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports from Canada, as the latter applied duties on electricity imported to New York, Michigan and Minnesota. The GBP/USD pair is trading at 1.2945 up 0.53%.

    The market mood remains dismal due to the ongoing trade war, favoring most G10 currencies except the Greenback. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report revealed that vacancies increased in January from 7.508 million to 7.740 million, exceeding forecasts of 7.63 million. Read more…



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  • Dollar might have fallen far enough for time being – ING

    Dollar might have fallen far enough for time being – ING


    FX markets are starting to settle down after a momentous week. While events in Europe were really the dominant factor, we would not have seen such big moves in EUR/USD were it not for US short-dated rates crumbling, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

    DXY may return at 104.30/50

    “Financial markets have priced the Fed terminal rate some 50bp lower in a little over a month. That may be enough for the time being barring some shock fall in US JOLTS job opening data (Tuesday) or big rise in the weekly initial jobless claims data (Thursday). Indeed, Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell was quite sanguine about recent developments in a speech on Friday.” 

    “One takeaway was his comment that sentiment readings were not good predictors of consumption growth – suggesting it may be too early to predict the demise of the US consumer. This week also sees February CPI data on Wednesday, where the core rate is expected to remain sticky at 0.3% month-on-month. This all supports Powell’s conclusion on Friday that the Fed does not need to be in a hurry to cut rates and could pour a little cold water on the market’s 27bp pricing for a rate cut in June.”

    “Also please remember that the US has now switched to Daylight Savings Time, narrowing the time difference until the clocks go forward in Europe on 30 March. Away from US data this week, the focus will be on Ukraine peace talks in Saudi Arabia and the global trade war. DXY could probably do with some consolidation after a tumultuous week, though more selling interest may return at 104.30/50 as long as the European outlook continues to be positively re-assessed.”



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  • Gold plunges 3% weekly as trade policies, recession fears fuel USD rally

    Gold plunges 3% weekly as trade policies, recession fears fuel USD rally


    • Gold drops over 1% Friday as USD strengthens, hitting 10-day high at 107.66.
    • XAU/USD falls to $2,845 as Fed rate-cut bets rise
    • Trump confirms 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, fueling market uncertainty.
    • Fed expected to cut rates by 70 bps in 2025 with first cut projected for June.

    Gold extended its losses on Friday, down more than 1% and over 3% in the week. The US Dollar rose to a ten-day peak of 107.66 amid fears of trade policies in the United States (US) and data that has sparked recessionary worries. The XAU/USD trades at $2,845 after reaching a daily peak of $2,885.

    According to US President Donald Trump, 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products will be applied next week on March 4. The release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, hinted that inflation continued progressing toward the 2% Fed goal.

    Expectations that the Fed would continue to ease policy rose after the data. According to Prime Market Terminal, the Fed will lower interest rates by 70 basis points this year with investors projecting the first rate cut in June.

    The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate has also been updated for Q1 2025. The model shows the economy will contract from a 2.3% expansion to -1.5 %. After the data, the 10-year US Treasury note yield dropped three basis points, and the US Dollar (USD) advanced on recession woes.

    In the meantime, some Fed speakers crossed the wires. The Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack said that a rate hike is not in the cards, and the impact of trade policies on monetary policy and the economy remains uncertain.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price treads water as US recession looms

    • The core PCE in the US rose 0.3% MoM from December and increased 2.6% YoY, as estimated, down from December’s 2.8% increase.
    • The headline PCE jumped by 2.5% YoY as expected, dipping from 2.6%, and remained unchanged every month at 0.3%, as projected.
    • Meanwhile, traders continued to digest US President Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric. He said 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would start next week, alongside an additional 10% on China.
    • The US 10-year Treasury note yield is at 4.229%, capping the Bullion price decline. US real yields, as measured by the yield in the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), edge lower five bps to 1.853%.
    • Last week, Goldman Sachs revised Gold price projections to $3,100 by the end of 2025.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold extends losses beneath $2,850

    Gold price registers back-to-back bearish candles, a sign that traders are booking profits ahead of the weekend and squaring their portfolios at the end of the month. Once XAU/USD dropped below $2,900, it extended its fall toward $2,832, but a daily close above 2,850 would keep buyers hopeful for higher prices.

    In that outcome, XAU/USD first resistance would be the $2,900 mark, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) high of $2,956. Otherwise, Gold’s first support would be $2,800, followed by the October 31 daily peak at $2,790 and by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     



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  • Has a chance to decline further – UOB Group

    Has a chance to decline further – UOB Group


    New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could decline further vs US Dollar (USD), but it does seem to have enough momentum to break and remain below 0.5680. In the longer run, if NZD breaks and remains below 0.5680, it could trigger a decline to 0.5645, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

    NZD can decline towards 0.5645

    24-HOUR VIEW: “Our view for NZD to ‘trade in a range of 0.5715/0.5755 range’ yesterday was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, NZD fell to 0.5689. Today, NZD could decline further, but it does not seem to have enough momentum to break and remain below 0.5680. The major support at 0.5645 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the upside, resistance levels are at 0.5715 and 0.5735.”

    1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We highlighted two days ago (25 Feb, spot at 0.5735) that ‘the current price movements are part of a 0.5680/0.5780 range.’ Yesterday, NZD fell to a low of 0.5689, closing at 0.5697, lower by 0.39%. Downward momentum is beginning to build, and if NZD breaks and remains below 0.5680, it could trigger a decline to 0.5645. To sustain the buildup in momentum, NZD must not break above 0.5755.”



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  • GBP/USD climbs as US Dollar weakens due to falling yields

    GBP/USD climbs as US Dollar weakens due to falling yields


    • Trump reiterates tariffs on Canada and Mexico, fueling trade concerns.
    • UK retailers slash investment as consumer spending weakens.
    • Markets expect BoE to hold rates at 4.50% in March, cut by Q2.

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) advanced early in the North American session, bouncing off a two-day low of 1.2605, as the Greenback weakened due to falling US Treasury yields. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.2669, gaining 0.37%.

    Sterling bounces off 1.2605, gaining 0.37% amid sour market mood

    The market mood shifted sour amid US President Donald Trump’s threats of tariffs. On Monday, he reiterated that duties on Canadian and Mexican products would be enacted as planned. In the meantime, weaker-than-expected data from the United States (US) has begun to take its toll on the US Dollar (USD) and is also sending US Treasury bond yields plunging. The US 10-year Treasury note plummets 10 basis points (bps) to 4.30% at the time of writing.

    Data in the US revealed the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices for December rose by 4.5% YoY, up from November 4.3%. Ahead in the day, Fed Governor Michael Barr and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin would cross the wires.

    In the United Kingdom (UK), the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) revealed that British retailers plan to cut investment by the most in more than five years due to weak consumer spending and elevated prices.

    Recently, a Reuters poll revealed that 65 economists estimate the Bank of England (BoE) would keep rates unchanged at 4.50% in March and expect a cut to 4.25% in Q2.

    A day ago, Swati Dhingra, a BoE external member, said that the policy would still be restrictive even if the bank cut rates by 0.25% quarterly. Meanwhile, traders await BoE chief economist Huw Pill, who sits in the hawkish aisle of the BoE.

    Ahead of the day, traders will watch the Conference Board (CB) ‘s announcement of US Consumer Confidence.

    GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    GBP/USD is neutral to upward biased, exchanging hands above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2648. A daily close above the latter could open the door to clear 1.2700, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.2786. On the other hand, if GBP/USD struggles at 100-day SMA and drops below 1.2600, sellers could drive prices toward the February 5 peak turned support at 1.2549.

    British Pound PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.36% -0.30% -0.49% 0.06% 0.19% 0.21% -0.43%
    EUR 0.36%   0.06% -0.11% 0.42% 0.56% 0.57% -0.07%
    GBP 0.30% -0.06%   -0.19% 0.36% 0.49% 0.51% -0.14%
    JPY 0.49% 0.11% 0.19%   0.54% 0.68% 0.68% 0.05%
    CAD -0.06% -0.42% -0.36% -0.54%   0.14% 0.15% -0.49%
    AUD -0.19% -0.56% -0.49% -0.68% -0.14%   0.01% -0.62%
    NZD -0.21% -0.57% -0.51% -0.68% -0.15% -0.01%   -0.64%
    CHF 0.43% 0.07% 0.14% -0.05% 0.49% 0.62% 0.64%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

     



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  • XAG/USD trades with positive bias below mid-.00s

    XAG/USD trades with positive bias below mid-$32.00s


    • Silver attracts some buyers on Tuesday and snaps a two-day losing streak. 
    • Mixed technical indicators on the daily chart warrant some caution for bulls. 
    • Corrective slides could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited.

    Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day’s modest bounce from the vicinity of the $32.00 mark, or a nearly one-week low, and gains some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday. The white metal, for now, seems to have snapped a two-day losing streak and currently trades just below mid-$32.00s, up 0.25% for the day. 

    From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $33.00 mark and the subsequent pullback warrant caution for bullish traders amid mixed oscillators on the daily chart. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the said handle before positioning for an extension of a well-established uptrend from sub-$29.00 levels, or the year-to-date low touched in January. 

    The XAG/USD might then aim to surpass the monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area touched on February 14, and climb further towards reclaiming the $34.00 mark. The momentum could extend further towards the $34.45 intermediate hurdle en route to the $35.00 neighborhood, or the multi-year peak touched in October. 

    On the flip side, the $32.10-$32.00 area now seems to have emerged as an immediate strong support ahead of the $31.75 region. Any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and help limit the downside for the XAG/USD near the $31.25 zone. The latter coincides with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and should act as a key pivotal point. Hence, a convincing break below might shift the bias in favor of bearish traders. 

    The subsequent decline has the potential to drag the XAG/USD below the $31.00 round-figure mark, towards testing the the next relevant support near the $30.25 region, the $30.00 psychological mark, and the $29.55-$29.50 horizontal zone.

    Silver daily chart

    Silver FAQs

    Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

    Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

    Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

    Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

     



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  • Gold plunges 3% weekly as trade policies, recession fears fuel USD rally

    Gold rally takes a breather, still heading for eight straight weekly advance


    • Gold touches all-time high of $2,954 amid trade policy uncertainty.
    • Trump expands tariffs to lumber and soft commodities, adding market jitters.
    • US data mixed: Manufacturing PMI improves, but Services PMI contracts.

    Gold price slides late on Friday, poised to end the week positively, accumulating eight straight weeks of gains that pushed the yellow metal to all-time highs of $2,954. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $2,940, down 0.15%.

    The financial markets’ narrative has not changed as US President Donald Trump continues with rhetoric related to tariffs. In addition to imposing 25% tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and chips, Trump broadened duties to lumber and other soft commodities.

    This fueled the rally in Bullion prices as investors seeking safety drove prices higher amidst uncertainty about US trade policies. Meanwhile, geopolitics took a second stage as there was some progress in the discussion to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which relieved the markets.

    Data-wise, business activity in the United States was mixed. The manufacturing PMI improved. Conversely, the Services PMI plunged for the first time since January 2023.

    Other data showed that Existing Home Sales plunged, and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Final reading for February deteriorated further.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price fails to capitalize on US yields drop

    • The US 10-year Treasury bond yield falls nine basis points (bps) and yields 4.416%.

    • US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, drop four basis points to 1.996%, a tailwind for Bullion prices.
    • US S&P Global revealed the Manufacturing PMI in February expanded by 51.6, up from 51.2, exceeding forecasts. The Services PMI plummeted from 52.9 to 49.7.
    • The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February dipped from 71.1 to 64.7. American consumers’ inflation expectations for one year rose from 3.3% to 4.3% as foreseen, and for a five-year period, they are anchored at 3.5%, up from 3.2% revealed in the previous month.
    • The Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes from Wednesday revealed that Trump’s trade and immigration policies fueled concerns over rising prices.
    • The World Gold Council revealed that central bank purchases rose more than 54% YoY to 333 tonnes following Trump’s victory.
    • Money market fed funds futures are pricing in 50 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price faces resistance and retreats

    Gold price remains upwardly biased, yet the trend seems exhausted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are losing ground with the RSI’s exiting from overbought territory opening the door for a retracement in Bullion prices.

    The first key support area to look at is $2,900. Once surpassed, sellers would target the February 14 swing low of $2,877, followed by the February 12 daily low of $2,864. Conversely, if XAU/USD rises past $2,954, the first resistance would be the psychological $2,950, followed by $3,000.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     



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  • UnitedHealth Group stock crashes as DOJ opens fraud probe

    UnitedHealth Group stock crashes as DOJ opens fraud probe


    • UnitedHealth Group stock slides hard as DOJ opens investigation.
    • Government probe involves possible fraudulent overcharging of Medicare Advantage plans.
    • UNH stock slides as low as 438.50, a 10-month low.
    • Health insurer calls allegations “false” and “outrageous”.

     

    UnitedHealth Group (UNH) stock crashed on Friday morning in light of a new United States (US) Department of Justice (DOJ) probe into possible overcharging of the federal government entity for retiree health services.

    UNH stock plunged as much as 12.7% at the open, but shares are now down about 9% closer to lunchtime near $457.

    UnitedHealth Group is one of the largest holdings in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which has sunk 0.88% at the time of writing, slightly worse than the NASDAQ. Besides UNH, Alphabet (GOOGL) is dealing with charges from European Union regulators, while Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) and Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) both sink by double digits.

    UnitedHealth Group news

    The US Department of Justice has opened a civil fraud investigation into the business practices of the country’s largest private health insurer, according to The Wall Street Journal. 

    At stake is whether UnitedHealth purposely overcharged Medicare Advantage plans by adding false diagnoses to some beneficiaries’ medical records. Medicare Advantage plans are government healthcare plans that are managed by private health insurers in the US.

    It is somewhat shocking to the market since the probe is coming during the Trump administration, which is viewed as more lax in regulatory oversight and a proponent of deregulation. The Journal also says that the Office of Inspector General at the US Department of Health & Human Services is also involved in the investigation, but none of the government agencies are publicly commenting or confirming the news. 

    For its part, a UnitedHealth spokesperson called the allegations “outrageous” and “false”.

    UnitedHealth has garnered a number of negative headlines over the past year. One year ago, the same DOJ launched an antitrust probe into UnitedHealth. Last November, it sued to stop UnitedHealth’s proposed acquisition of Amedisys (AMED). Then in early December of last year, Luigi Mangione, an individual angered at the company’s unpopular practice of denying coverage, shot and killed a top executive at the health insurer in Manhattan, leading to a manhunt.

    UnitedHealth Group stock chart

    UnitedHealth Group stock was already in a downtrend, seeing as the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) had drifted below the 200-day SMA by late January. That pattern is often referred to as the Death Cross and is viewed as a bearish long-term signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a strong bearish crossover, so many will expect the downtrend to continue.

    UNH stock found support at $438.50 soon after Friday’s open, which is close to the April 12, 2024, low at $446.38. Shareholders will hope the sell-off haults here. A break of that support level would make the November 2021 support in the $380s come into view. 

    Bulls will take it as a positive sign if UNH trades back above $475, which worked as support as recently as mid-December.

    UNH daily stock chart



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  • Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test

    Bulls pause as pair faces key technical test


    • EUR/USD slips to 1.0450 on Tuesday, cooling off after last week’s strong rally.
    • RSI declines sharply to 55, signaling waning bullish momentum while MACD remains flat with green bars.
    • The 20-day and 100-day SMAs are converging near 1.0450, raising concerns over a potential bearish crossover.

    EUR/USD took a step back on Tuesday, shedding 0.32% to trade near 1.0450 as bulls lost some ground after last week’s impressive rally. The pair remains above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader outlook constructive for now. However, the latest price action suggests that buying momentum is fading.

    Technical indicators reflect this shift. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has sharply declined to 55, showing weakening bullish traction, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains flat with green bars, highlighting hesitation among buyers. A key technical factor to watch is the 20-day and 100-day SMA convergence around 1.0450. If a bearish crossover materializes, it could invalidate recent gains and reinforce a downside bias.

    For now, as long as EUR/USD holds above the 20-day SMA, buyers still have a chance to push higher. However, a sustained break below this level would expose the pair to further losses, with immediate support at 1.0420 and deeper downside risks toward 1.0380.

    EUR/USD daily chart



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  • Mexican Peso extends rally to six days amid lack of catalyst

    Mexican Peso extends rally to six days amid lack of catalyst


    • USD/MXN dips below 50-day SMA at 20.42, trading at 20.27.
    • Weak US Retail Sales and softer PPI sub-components fuel Fed easing expectations.
    • Mexico’s Retail Sales, Banxico minutes, and Q4 GDP are in focus this week.

    The Mexican Peso (MXN) extended its gains versus the US Dollar (USD), clearing key support at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 20.42 as the USD/MXN found acceptance at lower exchange rates. At the time of writing, the exotic pair trades at 20.27, down 0.09%.

    Last week’s worse-than-expected United States (US) Retail Sales report drove the USD/MXN pair lower amid the uncertainty about economic growth in the US.

    Although US consumer inflation data surged, some sub-components of the Producer Price Index (PPI) used to calculate the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, suggests that prices could aim lower, increasing the chances for Fed’s easing.

    After Friday’s data, figures from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) suggest that investors had priced in 43 basis points (bps) of easing.

    Despite this, the Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated that the current state of the economy justifies maintaining a steady rate policy, noting that monetary policy is well-positioned now. He acknowledged that inflation has remained elevated and persistent in recent months, emphasizing that the Fed’s policy stance should continue to work towards lowering inflation.

    Ahead of this week, Mexico’s economic docket will feature Retail Sales for December, the release of Banco de Mexico (Banxico) latest meeting minutes, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Q4 2024.

    Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso climbs despite Banxico’s dovish stance

    • Monetary policy divergence between Banxico and the Fed favors further USD/MXN upside, as the Fed would likely hold rates for a longer period, while Banxico is expected to cut rates again by  50 basis points in the next meeting.
    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of currencies, is virtually unchanged at 106.77, a headwind for USD/MXN.
    • Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain in the boiler room. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a  30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February.

    USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso surges as USD/MXN drops below 50-day SMA

    USD/MXN trends lower on Monday and close into the 100-day SMA at 20.24, which, if cleared, could open the door for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, which indicated that the exotic pair could be headed to the 20.00 psychological figure.

    In that outcome, if sellers push prices below 20.00, the next support would be the October 18 swing low at 19.64, followed by the 200-day SMA at 19.37.

    Conversely, if USD/MXN rises back above the 50-day SMA, the next resistance would be 20.50, followed by the January 17 high of 20.90, the 21.00 figure, and the year-to-date (YTD) high of 21.29.

    Risk sentiment FAQs

    In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off” refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest.

    Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity.

    The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

     



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  • Procter & Gamble stock leads Dow Jones lower

    Procter & Gamble stock leads Dow Jones lower


    • Procter & Gamble stock sinks 4.75% on Friday.
    • Dow Jones sheds 0.37% despite NASDAQ gains.
    • BNP Paribas analyst cites volatility in US consumer staples category.
    • US Retail Sales for January hit -0.9%, surpising market.

     

    Procter & Gamble (PG) stock was the worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on Friday. Normally a less volatile holding, PG shares tumbled after a PNB Paribas analyst questioned 2025 guidance for the maker of well-known, fast-moving consumer brands like Pampers, Gillette and Crest. 

    The outlook for Procter & Gamble was exacerbated by a poor US Retails Sales print that showed the US economy might be in bad shape. The DJIA slumped nearly 0.4%, but the NASDAQ gained a similar amount as some investors thought the poor economic data might usher in an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on a closer timeline.

    Procter & Gamble stock news

    Kevin Grundy, the PNB Paribas analyst, met with Procter & Gamble CEO Jon Moeller Thursday and didn’t like what he was hearing. Moeller admitted that his company is experiencing high volatility in the US consumer staples sector that is “probably higher today” than at any time in the CEO’s tenure.

    Moeller claimed to be seeing slowing demand across categories in the US market despite seeing good traction globally and especially in Latin America and Europe. Additionally, he said that de-stocking was an added obstacle. 

    Grundy’s client note argues that the volatility makes P&G’s 2025 organic sales growth less certain. Moeller claimed that there was enough flexibility to protect earnings per share from any slowing in US organic growth. 

    Grundy said that Procter & Gamble’s guidance for the year was now probably in doubt until more clarity was achieved via further quarterly results.

    The news hit harder as it came during the same session when US Retails Sales for January plummeted, coming in as it did at -0.9% MoM. The market had expected the figure at -0.1%. However, December’s figure was revised upward from 0.4% to 0.7% MoM, so that also exacerbated the monthly print.

    US Retails Sales in January fell on account of consumers reducing spending in the autos and auto-related merchandise category, as well as sporting goods, furniture and home furnishings.

    PG stock forecast

    Procter & Gamble stock, not known for wild swings, fell off a cliff on Friday. PG shares are now treading water well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).

    The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows a general crossover that makes further downside more likely. The MACD had been trending upward since January, and that rally appears to be over.

    Without much nearby support on the daily chart, traders should expect support to appear in the large green-shaded band running from $153.50 to $160.00. That is where PG discovered support beginning in April 2024 and running through most of last year. PG stock will need to form a new range high above $172.00 in order to put the present negativity behind it.

    PG daily stock chart

     



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  • CPI in focus – OCBC

    CPI in focus – OCBC


    US Dollar (USD) traded subdued overnight in absence of fresh catalyst. DXY was last seen at 108 levels, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.  

    Deceleration in core CPI may weigh on USD

    “In the semi-annual testimony to Senate Banking panel overnight, Fed Chair Powell signalled that the Fed was in no rush to cut which had been well priced by markets, hence impact on FX has been rather muted. The impact of Powell’s comment was more felt on gold as a no rush to cut implies high for longer may remain. This also comes timely to keep gold’s rise in check for now.”  

    “Daily momentum and RSI indicators are not showing a clear bias. Sideways trade likely for now. Support at 107.80/90 levels (50 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of Oct low to Jan high), 107 levels. Resistance at 108.40 (21 DMA), 110.00/20 levels (previous high).”  

    “On data, US CPI is top focus tonight (9:30 pm SGT). A deceleration in core CPI may weigh on USD but tariff uncertainty may still imply that USD dips may be shallow. Later tonight, Powell will testify to the House Financial Services committee (11 pm). He is not expected to deviate too much from his recent remarks. Elsewhere, we are also keeping a look out on details with regards to reciprocal tariffs.”



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  • Surges as US yields rise, eyes on 200-day SMA

    Surges as US yields rise, eyes on 200-day SMA


    • USD/JPY rebounds 0.35% from 151.64 low, driven by bond yield movements.
    • Technical analysis hints at bullish shift; resistance near 200-day SMA at 152.76.
    • Downside risks if SMA not surpassed; supports at 152.00 and 150.93 in focus.

    The USD/JPY climbed during the North American session. It trades at 152.52 and posts gains of over 0.35% after hitting a daily low of 151.64. The rise of the US 10-year T-note bond yield spurred the rise of the pair, which is positively correlated to the yield of the 10-year.

    USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    The USD/JPY remains biased downward, even though buyers could challenge the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.76. The momentum shifted slightly bullish even though the relative strength index (RSI) remains bearish, and the slope aims upwards.

    If buyers regain the 200-day SMA, the following key resistance would be the 153.00 mark before testing the Senkou Span B base at 153.76.

    On the other hand, if USD/JPY stays below the 200-day SMA, the first support would be the 152.00 figure. Further losses lie below the February 7 daily low of 150.93, followed by the December 3 swing low of 148.64.

    USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily

    Japanese Yen PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.53% -0.60% 0.30% -0.16% -0.28% -0.23% 0.16%
    EUR 0.53%   -0.08% 0.85% 0.39% 0.25% 0.30% 0.70%
    GBP 0.60% 0.08%   0.93% 0.46% 0.31% 0.36% 0.76%
    JPY -0.30% -0.85% -0.93%   -0.45% -0.59% -0.53% -0.14%
    CAD 0.16% -0.39% -0.46% 0.45%   -0.13% -0.08% 0.31%
    AUD 0.28% -0.25% -0.31% 0.59% 0.13%   0.05% 0.44%
    NZD 0.23% -0.30% -0.36% 0.53% 0.08% -0.05%   0.39%
    CHF -0.16% -0.70% -0.76% 0.14% -0.31% -0.44% -0.39%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

     



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  • Mexican Peso extends rally to six days amid lack of catalyst

    Mexican Peso on the backfoot following Banxico’s Rodriguez remarks


    • Mexican Peso weighed down by steek and aluminum tariffs enacted by The White House.
    • Mexican automobile production and exports declined, creating a headwind for the emerging market currency.
    • USD/MXN traders eye testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday.

    The Mexican Peso depreciated against the US Dollar on Monday after US President Donald Trump decided to apply 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports into the United States (US), including Mexico and Canada. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.67, a gain of 0.66%.

    On Sunday, Trump stated that he would apply tariffs on base metals. He added that reciprocal tariffs could be enacted as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday and that the tariffs would address the deficit.

    The USD/MXN jumped on those remarks, extending its gains during the North American session. Meanwhile, the market mood remained upbeat, as depicted by US equities trading with gains.

    Mexican data revealed that auto production dipped and exports plummeted for the third consecutive month in January, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica Geografia e Informatica (INEGI).

    Earlier, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez Ceja was dovish, revealing that the Central Bank could cut rates of the same magnitude as in February, adding that the job of bringing inflation to the 3% goal has not concluded.

    Mexican Industrial Production for December is expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% MoM. US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell will cross the wires in the US for his semi-annual testimony at the US Congress. US inflation data on the consumer and producer side and retail sales will also update the status of the US economy.

    Daily digest market movers: Mexican data failed to cap Peso’s fall spurred by Trump’s rhetoric

    • Mexico’s Auto Exports plunged from -5.8% YoY to -13.7% in January. Production dipped from 4.2% to 1.7% YoY.
    • Banxico’s Rodriguez added that Mexico’s role in US production chains allowed American consumers access to products at competitive prices. She said the central bank remains attentive to what might happen in March after the 30-day grace period provided by Trump.
    • She added that despite being volatile, the Mexican Peso market has operated in an orderly way.
    • The New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations revealed that US consumers expect inflation to remain at 3%. For five years, prices are expected to edge up from 2.7% to 3% in December.
    • Trade disputes between the US and Mexico remain in the boiler room. Although the countries found common ground previously, USD/MXN traders should know that there is a 30-day pause and that tensions could arise toward the end of February.
    • Money market fed funds rate futures are pricing in 39 basis points (bps) of easing by the Fed in 2025.

    USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso poised for further losses

    The USD/MXN uptrend remains in place, but the exotic pair could remain sideways in the short term, trading within the 20.30 – 20.70 area. Momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but buyers need to push prices above 20.70, so they could target higher prices.

    The next resistance would be the January 17 daily peak at 20.90 before testing the 21.00 figure and the year-to-date (YTD) high at 21.29. Conversely, a drop below the 50-day Simple Moving average (SMA) at 20.57 could clear the path toward the 100-day SMA at 20.22. On further weakness, look for a test of 20.00.

    Economic Indicator

    Central Bank Interest Rate

    The Bank of Mexico announces a key interest rate which affects the whole range of interest rates set by commercial banks, building societies and other institutions for their own savers and borrowers.  Generally speaking, if the central bank is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the Mexican Peso.

    Read more.

    Last release: Thu Feb 06, 2025 19:00

    Frequency: Irregular

    Actual: 9.5%

    Consensus: 9.5%

    Previous: 10%

    Source: Banxico

     



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  • GBP/USD outperforms USD as Trump backs immediate rate cuts

    GBP/USD outperforms USD as Trump backs immediate rate cuts


    Pound Sterling outperforms USD as Trump backs immediate rate cuts

    GBP/USD rises to near 1.2400 as Trump asks Fed for rate cuts

     

    GBP/USD churns near familiar levels ahead of Friday’s PMI data


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  • COL stock analysis and Elliott Wave technical forecast [Video]

    COL stock analysis and Elliott Wave technical forecast [Video]


    COLES GROUP LIMITED – COL Elliott Wave Technical Analysis TradingLounge.

    Greetings, our latest Elliott Wave analysis for the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) highlights COLES GROUP LIMITED – COL. The current outlook suggests that ASX:COL may advance within the (5)-orange wave.

    There exists some ambiguity between the two primary perspectives. However, readers can rely on key indicators to determine whether a bullish trend is commencing or if the bearish trend remains dominant, based on a logical and data-driven approach.

    COL (1D chart) Elliott Wave technical analysis

    • Function: Major trend (Minute degree, navy).

    • Mode: Motive.

    • Structure: Impulse.

    • Position: Wave 3-grey of Wave (5)-orange.

    Details:

    The primary wave count scenario suggests that the 3-grey wave is trending upward from 18.35. However, this outlook has weakened due to insufficient clarity and strength in the movement. As a result, the ALT alternative scenario is gaining prominence. It is essential to monitor this stock further for confirmation.

    COL 4-hour chart analysis

    Function: Major trend (Minor degree, grey).

    Mode: Motive.

    Structure: Impulse.

    Position: Wave 3-grey of Wave (5)-orange.

    Details:

    As previously mentioned, there is noticeable weakness in the upside momentum. This could indicate a developing 2-grey wave. However, if the stock surpasses 19.37, it would strengthen the primary outlook. Otherwise, both scenarios hold comparable probabilities.

    Chart

    Conclusion

    Our analysis provides a comprehensive forecast of market trends and short-term expectations for COLES GROUP LIMITED – COL. We deliver insights to help investors navigate the market effectively, offering specific price points that serve as validation or invalidation markers for our Elliott Wave counts. This approach enhances confidence in our market outlook.

    By considering these factors, we aim to provide a well-balanced, professional perspective on the current market landscape.

    Technical analyst: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master’s Designation).

    COL Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]



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  • USD/JPY steady amid tariff threats ahead of BoJ’s meeting

    USD/JPY steady amid tariff threats ahead of BoJ’s meeting


    • USD/JPY stable despite volatility after Trump announces possible 25% tariffs on neighboring countries.
    • US Dollar Index (DXY) gains 0.29%, reaching 108.30, amid positive market sentiment.
    • Focus on upcoming Bank of Japan meeting; potential for 25 basis point rate hike expected.

    The USD/JPY was virtually unchanged during the North American session on Tuesday, as traders assessed US President Donald Trump’s threats to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as soon as February 1. The Greenback recovered as the major hit a daily high of 156.20. However, fears faded as the pair traded near 155.54, virtually unchanged.

    USD/JPY consolidates near 155.50 on President Trump’s proposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico

    Market sentiment remains upbeat, and the US Dollar climbs, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the basket of six currencies against the buck, rising 0.29% to 108.30.

    Meanwhile, traders in the FX markets would continue to be attentive to Trump’s rhetoric, which sent ripples late Monday in the US as he signed a tranche of executive orders, including illegal immigration and naming cartels as global terrorist organizations.

    In addition, USD/JPY traders are focused on the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) next monetary policy meeting. Interest rate probabilities suggest the BoJ would likely raise rates by 25 basis points to 0.50% for the first time since July last year.

    Source: Prime Market Terminal

    This week, the US economic schedule remains absent until Thursday, when the Initial Jobless Claims data will be released, followed by Friday’s S&P Flash PMIs. In Japan, the docket will feature Trade Balance data and foreign Investment figures ahead of the BoJ meeting.

    USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

    The USD/JPY uptrend remains intact, but recently, sellers stepped in and dragged spot prices from around 158.80 to the current level. Despite this, bears failed to clear a support trendline drawn from September 2024 lows near 154.50. Nevertheless, if USD/JPY holds below 156.00, further downside is seen once 155.00 is cleared. The next support would be the 154.50, followed by the 154.00 mark.

    On the other hand, if USD/JPY rises past the Senkou-span A at 156.41, a test of 157.00 is on the cards. If surpassed, a jump toward the January 15 high of 158.03 is likely.

    Japanese Yen PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.25% 0.30% -0.06% 0.56% 0.33% 0.45% 0.20%
    EUR -0.25%   0.06% -0.24% 0.30% 0.08% 0.21% -0.07%
    GBP -0.30% -0.06%   -0.34% 0.24% 0.01% 0.14% -0.12%
    JPY 0.06% 0.24% 0.34%   0.61% 0.37% 0.48% 0.23%
    CAD -0.56% -0.30% -0.24% -0.61%   -0.23% -0.10% -0.37%
    AUD -0.33% -0.08% -0.01% -0.37% 0.23%   0.12% -0.14%
    NZD -0.45% -0.21% -0.14% -0.48% 0.10% -0.12%   -0.27%
    CHF -0.20% 0.07% 0.12% -0.23% 0.37% 0.14% 0.27%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).



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