USD/CHF closes Friday up 0.04%, but logs 1.37% weekly drop to 1-month low at 0.8054.
Bearish structure persists: lower highs/lows and weak RSI signal continued downside momentum.
Key support lies at 0.8054 and 0.8038; breach may expose psychological 0.8000 level.
Bulls need a break above 0.8147 to challenge 0.8200 and the 50-day SMA near 0.8257.
The USD/CHF ended Friday’s session with gains of over 0.04%, but in the week fell over 1.37% to a one-month low of 0.8054. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8104 due to increased demand for the Dollar amid risk aversion.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The USD/CHF is bearishly biased due to its price action pattern of successively lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registered a lower low, indicating bearish territory. That said, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.
If the USD/CHF drops below 0.8100, the next support level would be the June 13 low of 0.8054. On further weakness, the pair fall could extend to 0.8038, ahead of the 0.8000 figure.
On the upside, a decisive break of the June 13 high of 0.8147 can open the door to test 0.82, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8057.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-1.33%
-0.29%
-0.52%
-0.82%
0.15%
0.09%
-1.29%
EUR
1.33%
1.00%
0.82%
0.51%
1.53%
1.36%
0.04%
GBP
0.29%
-1.00%
-0.10%
-0.49%
0.53%
0.38%
-0.91%
JPY
0.52%
-0.82%
0.10%
-0.30%
0.63%
0.50%
-0.84%
CAD
0.82%
-0.51%
0.49%
0.30%
0.86%
0.84%
-0.46%
AUD
-0.15%
-1.53%
-0.53%
-0.63%
-0.86%
-0.18%
-1.43%
NZD
-0.09%
-1.36%
-0.38%
-0.50%
-0.84%
0.18%
-1.24%
CHF
1.29%
-0.04%
0.91%
0.84%
0.46%
1.43%
1.24%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
USD/CHF depreciates as the safe-haven demand increases amid rising tensions between Israel and Iran.
CBS journalist reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully prepared to launch an operation into Iran.
US Consumer Price Index climbed 2.4% YoY in May, coming in slightly below the expected 2.5% rise.
USD/CHF extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 0.8160 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair depreciates as the Swiss Franc (CHF) received support from the increased safe-haven demand amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.
According to a Reuters report, the United States (US) decided to reduce its personnel in the Middle East. CBS News senior White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs reported that US officials have been told that Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.
US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the US would not permit Iran to have a nuclear weapon, per Reuters. The US and Iran are expected to meet on Sunday for nuclear talks. Axios reporter Barak Ravid reported that “White House envoy Steve Witkoff is going to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat on Sunday and discuss the Iranian response to the recent US proposal, a US official tells me.”
Additionally, the USD/CHF depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) struggles amid increasing odds of the Fed rate cut in September, boosted by cooler-than-expected US inflation in May. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, slightly above 2.3% prior but below the market expectations of a 2.5% increase. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed 2.8% YoY in May, compared to the consensus of 2.9%.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
USD/CHF trades cautiously around 0.8200, while investors await key US NFP data for May.
Disappointing US ADP Employment and ISM Services PMI data for May have battered the US Dollar.
The Swiss CPI deflated by 0.1% in May, paving the way for more interest rate cuts from the SNB.
The USD/CHF pair trades with caution near the six-week low around 0.8200 during late Asian trading hours on Thursday. Investors brace for significant volatility in the pair as the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data takes centre stage, which will reflect the current status of the labor market.
The US Dollar (USD) fell sharply on Wednesday after the release of a string of disappointing US economic data for May, notably a sharp slowdown in the private sector labor demand. The ADP Employment Change data showed that the private sector added 37K fresh workers, the lowest reading seen since the Covid era in February 2021.
Additionally, weak Services PMI and rising input costs in the services sector, which accounts for the two-third of the overall economic activity, have prompted stagflation risks. According to the US ISM Services PMI report, activities in the sector unexpectedly declined, and the sub-component Prices Paid grew at a faster pace. The scenario of rising input costs and labor market slowdown often leads to stagflation.
On the trade front, investors seek fresh cues on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. On Wednesday, the comments from US President Donald Trump in a post on Truth.Social signaled that trade negotiations with Chinese leader Xi Jinping won’t be easy. “I like President Xi of China, always have, and always will, but he is VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” Trump wrote.
In the Swiss region, the scenario of deflation has raised expectations of an interest rate cut by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in the monetary policy meeting on June 19. On Tuesday, the data showed that the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) deflated by 0.1% on year, as expected, in May after remaining flat in April.
SNB President Martin Schlegel already warned in an event in Basel in the last week of May that Swiss inflation could enter negative territory, Reuters reported. However, he ruled out expectations that short-term inflation hiccups could lead to monetary policy adjustments, stating that the central bank is more focused on maintaining price stability in the medium term.
“Even negative inflation figures cannot be ruled out in the coming months,” Schlegel said and added, “The SNB does not necessarily have to react to this.”
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
USD/CHF drops to 0.8155 amid renewed ‘Sell America’ sentiment across global markets.
RSI confirms bearish momentum; next targets are YTD low at 0.8083 and psychological support at 0.8000.
Recovery needs a break above 0.8200, with resistance at 0.8300 and last week’s high at 0.8346.
USD/CHF extended its losses during Monday’s North American session, down 0.60% as the Greenback weakened across the board. An earlier risk-off impulse, which surprisingly shifted positively, weighs on the US Dollar (USD), which did not capitalize on its status as the ‘sell America’ trade continues to gain steam in the financial markets. The pair trades below 0.8200 after hitting a six-week low of 0.8155.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Since hitting a weekly high of 0.8346, the USD/CHF pair has plummeted sharply due to overall weakness in the US Dollar. Momentum as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are gathering momentum. This means the major could retest the year-to-date (YTD) lows hit on April 21, a swing low of 0.8083. If that level is surpassed, the next stop would be the 0.8000 figure.
Conversely, if USD/CHF drops below 0.8100, the next support would be the abovementioned YTD low of 0.8083sd and the 0.8000 figure.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
Swiss Franc PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.85%
-0.62%
-0.81%
-0.27%
-0.97%
-1.32%
-0.78%
EUR
0.85%
0.22%
0.05%
0.57%
-0.12%
-0.51%
0.06%
GBP
0.62%
-0.22%
-0.15%
0.36%
-0.34%
-0.74%
-0.16%
JPY
0.81%
-0.05%
0.15%
0.54%
-0.17%
-0.53%
-0.07%
CAD
0.27%
-0.57%
-0.36%
-0.54%
-0.70%
-1.08%
-0.51%
AUD
0.97%
0.12%
0.34%
0.17%
0.70%
-0.33%
0.28%
NZD
1.32%
0.51%
0.74%
0.53%
1.08%
0.33%
0.57%
CHF
0.78%
-0.06%
0.16%
0.07%
0.51%
-0.28%
-0.57%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
USD/CHF resumes its weekly uptrend after a US federal court blocked Trump’s tariffs.
Wednesday’s hawkish FOMC Minutes boosts the USD and contributes to the move up.
Traders now look forward to Thursday’s US macro data for short-term opportunities.
The USD/CHF pair regains positive traction following the previous day’s directionless price move and jumps to over a one-week high, around the 0.8345-0.8350 area during the Asian session Thursday. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop supports prospects for an extension of a multi-day-old uptrend from sub-0.8200 levels, or a nearly three-week low touched on Monday.
The global risk sentiment gets a strong boost after the Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked US President Donald Trump’s proposed reciprocal trade tariffs. Wall Street futures and equities across Asia rise sharply in reaction to the court ruling, which, in turn, is seen weighing on the safe-haven Swiss Franc (CHF). This along with a strong follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the USD/CHF pair.
In fact, the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, scales higher for the third straight day in the wake of the tariff-block news and hawkish FOMC Minuets released on Wednesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials agreed to maintain the wait-and-see approach on interest rates amid the uncertainty about the economic outlook and trade policies. This tempers hopes for more aggressive Fed rate cuts and continues to push the USD higher.
However, traders are still pricing in the possibility that the US central bank will deliver at least two 25 basis points (bps) rate cuts by the end of this year. This, in turn, holds back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and caps the USD/CHF pair. Market participants now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of the Prelim Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data – for short-term trading opportunities.
US Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.39%
0.25%
0.63%
0.10%
0.12%
0.53%
0.68%
EUR
-0.39%
-0.13%
0.23%
-0.29%
-0.20%
0.13%
0.28%
GBP
-0.25%
0.13%
0.35%
-0.15%
-0.06%
0.25%
0.33%
JPY
-0.63%
-0.23%
-0.35%
-0.53%
-0.52%
-0.15%
-0.04%
CAD
-0.10%
0.29%
0.15%
0.53%
-0.03%
0.43%
0.47%
AUD
-0.12%
0.20%
0.06%
0.52%
0.03%
0.34%
0.39%
NZD
-0.53%
-0.13%
-0.25%
0.15%
-0.43%
-0.34%
0.05%
CHF
-0.68%
-0.28%
-0.33%
0.04%
-0.47%
-0.39%
-0.05%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD/CHF is trading lower, hovering near the week’s lows, as recession fears and weak Chinese PMIs weigh on sentiment.
US GDP contracted in Q1, PCE inflation cooled, and traders now question the Fed’s next move amid Trump’s renewed criticism of Powell.
Technical indicators remain bearish, with USD/CHF capped by moving average resistance and downside risks toward 0.8120 and 0.8070.
The USD/CHF is trading with losses, staying close to its recent lows after a wave of soft US data and deteriorating macro signals from China triggered broad risk-off flows in the market. Sentiment was already fragile heading into Wednesday, and the release of a disappointing US GDP print intensified concerns over the health of the US economy. At the same time, weak Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs revealed the first clear signs of stress from the trade war escalation, increasing fears of global economic deceleration. The US Dollar is broadly under pressure, struggling to gain any momentum despite month-end flows.
On the macro front, US GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, a stark reversal from the 2.4% growth seen in Q4 2024 and well below market expectations. The downturn reflected weaker consumer spending, a drop in government expenditure, and a widening trade deficit. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation came in at 2.3% year-on-year, down from February’s 2.5%, in line with consensus but continuing the cooling trend in price pressures. Personal income and spending surprised modestly to the upside, but failed to support the Dollar. President Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chair Powell, during a Detroit rally, added fuel to market uncertainty, as the President claimed to “know more about rates than Powell” and pushed for more aggressive easing.
Compounding the bearish bias, China’s April manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 49.0, its lowest level since 2023, and the export component dropped to 44.7. Non-manufacturing activity also slowed, with services and construction readings edging closer to stagnation. This confirmed a severe export shock and raised the likelihood of additional stimulus measures from Beijing. Traders reacted swiftly, selling USD across the board while demand for traditional safe havens like the Swiss Franc strengthened. Meanwhile, Chinese gold ETFs saw their largest outflows in 264 sessions, and Copper prices collapsed as CTA-driven liquidations escalated into thin liquidity ahead of holidays in Asia.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, momentum signals are clearly bearish for the USD/CHF. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 40, confirming weakening upside momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory, suggesting continued selling pressure. The pair is trading below its 10-day and 20-day EMAs, reinforcing the downside bias. Strong resistance is seen near 0.8280 and 0.8340, while immediate support lies around 0.8120, with a deeper move targeting 0.8070 and potentially 0.8000 in a bearish continuation scenario.
Markets now shift focus to Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will offer fresh insights into US labor market strength and shape expectations for the Fed’s May 7 policy decision. Until then, sentiment remains fragile and tilted against the US Dollar.
USD/CHF trades near the lower end of its daily range on Monday after a notable decline.
Bearish signals dominate with downward pressure from key moving averages.
Technical levels point to support near 0.8210 and resistance around 0.8315.
During Monday’s session, USD/CHF was seen trading near the lower end of its daily range, moving around the 0.82 area after dropping by nearly half a percent. The pair continues to face a bearish overall sentiment, reinforced by the performance of technical indicators. Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing neutral around 38 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hinting at a mild buy signal, broader signals from the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) and Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) remain firmly tilted towards selling.
The bearish tone is particularly emphasized by the 20-day SMA positioned around 0.8358, as well as the 100-day and 200-day SMAs hovering well above the current trading area at 0.8854 and 0.8750 respectively, all signaling a continued downside bias. Furthermore, short-term EMAs, with the 10-day at approximately 0.8259 and the 30-day near 0.8452, also strengthen the bearish outlook.
Meanwhile, other momentum indicators such as the Williams Percent Range (14) at around -64 and the Stochastic RSI Fast hovering above 90 are sending more neutral signals, suggesting that while downside pressure is strong, short-term volatility could persist.
On the levels front, immediate support lies close to the 0.8210 zone, with stronger layers of resistance aligned near 0.8259, 0.8302, and 0.8315. These levels could define the trading boundaries in the short term as the pair reacts to prevailing market forces.
In conclusion, Monday’s action highlights a continuation of the bearish sentiment for USDCHF, driven largely by the weight of the moving averages, despite some neutral signs from oscillators. Traders will be keeping a close eye on whether the support around 0.8210 holds or if the pair stages a corrective rebound towards the resistance clusters identified above.
USD/CHF plunges to the 0.8600 zone, hitting its lowest level since October 2024.
US tariffs trigger global portfolio adjustments, intensifying bearish pressure on the Greenback.
Technical indicators flag oversold conditions; a near-term correction may follow.
During Thursday’s session, the USD/CHF pair suffered a sharp decline, tumbling toward the 0.8600 region and marking its weakest levels in nearly six months. This bearish move came amid broad-based US Dollar (USD) weakness following President Donald Trump’s aggressive announcement of reciprocal import tariffs. The US Dollar Index (DXY) was dealt a heavy blow, breaking down decisively as traders fled US assets and reallocated portfolios away from the Greenback. Meanwhile, oversold signals from momentum indicators suggest the pair may be due for a rebound.
Tariff shock knocks the US Dollar
President Trump’s unveiling of a 10% baseline tariff on all incoming goods, alongside a 25% levy on auto imports, delivered a major shock to global markets. While initially welcomed for their clarity, the tariff measures turned out to be highly complex and country-specific, adding uncertainty to trade dynamics. Investors were quick to reprice risk, leading to an exodus from US equities and the US Dollar alike.
The ripple effect was seen across the board, with the DXY collapsing below 102 for the first time in months. US jobless claims added to the soft tone, printing at 219K—below forecasts and the prior revised 225K, pointing to continued labor market softness. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI for March disappointed at 50.8, missing expectations and suggesting slower growth momentum. Combined with rising fears of a recession, this data cocktail reinforced the notion that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to pivot sooner than previously thought.
Technical outlook: Oversold conditions emerge
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is deeply oversold following a drop of over 2% in a single session. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged toward extreme territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows strong downside momentum. Despite these bearish signals, such readings often precede at least a short-term correction.
Support is seen near the psychological 0.8600 area, with deeper levels around 0.8565 and 0.8520 potentially in play if selling continues. On the flip side, resistance could emerge near 0.8650, followed by 0.8720 and the 20-day Simple Moving Average, which currently hovers in the upper 0.87s.
