Dealers are seeing renewed hedge fund interest in the Hong Kong dollar carry trade due to the wide gap between Hong Kong and US rates, after many were stopped out on similar trades in early May.
“Hedge funds [and] fast money [accounts], which reduced some of their long USDHKD position in early May during the USD/Asia sell-off, are engaging in the trade again because of the attractive carry,” says John Luk, head of emerging markets trading for greater China at Crédit Agricole Corporate and
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Foreign exchange structurers are seeing increased demand from US corporates for options-based hedges that can limit losses on their net investment hedges caused by the US dollar’s selloff.
While the economic value of derivatives hedges offsets changes in foreign assets, when those positions hit maturity companies can face hefty mark-to-market payments.
Bank structurers, though, say companies with foreign assets and subsidiaries in places like Europe, where the euro has strengthened significantly
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The deal contingent (DC) hedge market has been making a comeback, after President Trump’s chaotic tariff policies in April led to a sharp dropoff in public merger deal activity amid the widespread economic uncertainty.
“The tariff discussions and news flow saw a lot of timelines pushed out, but I feel deals are coming back in now, and we’re getting quite a lot of inbound requests of substantial size,” says Edmund Carroll, head of FX, rates and commodities corporate client solutions at UBS.
The
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It takes a market-wide crisis to know how stable the underlying pipework is that supports it. In the $7.5 trillion foreign exchange market, the measure of its stability is liquidity.
This was put to the test last month, as intraday volatility triggered by president Donald Trump’s tariff announcements on April 2 resulted in an explosion in trading volumes, a widening of bid-offer spreads, and extremely challenging liquidity conditions.
So, how much did this event expose the vulnerabilities in the
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With FX volumes in Asia-Pacific (Apac) growing rapidly on the back of heightened volatility, HSBC is leveraging its regional and international footprint to broaden its FX offering, providing clients with robust solutions to meet their trading and hedging needs
As worldwide trade disruptions have led to market volatility and uncertainty in Apac, market participants in the region are assessing the risks to their operations and exploring options. As one of the premier FX banks in the world, with a long-standing presence in the Apac region, HSBC is front and centre in the drive to support its clients in navigating this uncertainty and understanding how the current environment is impacting their business.
Volkan Benihasim, HSBC
“HSBC has been helping its clients navigate uncertainty for 160 years,” says Volkan Benihasim, global head of FX, emerging markets rates and commodities at HSBC. “That’s what we do. And, despite uncertainty around tariffs, there will undoubtedly be further diversification of supply chains in Asia, which will bring about new trade corridors and new currency needs to meet the changing of business in the region. It’s part of our expertise to continue successfully accompanying our clients through this change.”
The winds of change were already blowing in Asia’s FX markets before the current trade uncertainties swept in. Authorities across a number of the region’s restricted markets had started to relax the rules governing their currencies and opened up the FX market to offshore investors. This has brought a flurry of trading activity and a significant increase in the level of trading sophistication among the region’s broad spectrum of market participants. As a result, Apac FX markets have become some of the most dynamic in the world.
Corporates in the region have been particularly active. Usually more risk-averse than other market participants and less tolerant of unexpected gains or losses, the frequency of volatility-inducing events in the past five years has substantially increased their awareness of the risks they face. To manage these risks, they are being increasingly flexible and open to more sophisticated FX hedging solutions than ever before.
China’s central position in Asia
Regardless of the outcome of forthcoming trade negotiations, it is undeniable that China will remain central to the economic fabric of Apac, and HSBC will be there to facilitate trade and investment flows in and out of the region. The bank’s determination to provide high-quality liquidity to clients looking to gain access to onshore and offshore renminbi (CNH) liquidity remains unwavering.
With its leading international bank position in the Chinese market, HSBC is always at the forefront of market FX developments in the country. To that end, HSBC initiated the first trade of the Macanese pataca when it was included in the China Foreign Exchange Trade System in January 2024; and, when China allowed a select number of qualified banks to trade CNH in its free-trade zones, HSBC was one of the first banks to execute trades under this new framework. Since its launch, this new trading regime has garnered significant interest from local interbank market participants and corporate clients in China.
“Being one of the first banks to trade CNH onshore underlines our position in the China market. In addition, we were able to support wider market participants in preparing for the new regulation on margining for uncleared derivatives in China,” says Benihasim. “We leveraged the expertise acquired in other jurisdictions and our extensive know-how, both in global and local markets, to provide critical insights to local participants and help them prepare for the upcoming regulatory change.”
In 2024, HSBC also streamlined key processes to enhance the client experience and operational reliability in China. To that end, the bank has electronified the onboarding process for trading FX products and digitalised post-trade, including enabling swift and accurate settlements.
HSBC has also developed tailored solutions that help local clients with significant global FX hedging needs to manage their overseas direct investments across international markets.
Hong Kong as a gateway
Since the creation of the CNH market in Hong Kong more than 15 years ago, the special administrative region has served as the largest provider of renminbi liquidity outside of mainland China. As Chinese companies continue to expand their business overseas and new corridors emerge, such as in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the Middle East, that role is likely to be reinforced as they tap into the deep liquidity Hong Kong markets offer. On a similar footing, the significant interest in China’s economy from international corporates and institutional clients is also driving significant FX activity from offshore clients towards Hong Kong.
The Bond Connect and Stock Connect schemes – initiated by Chinese regulators to encourage closer co-operation between mainland China and Hong Kong’s markets – have boosted FX liquidity in the city, and the introduction of a renminbi trade finance facility by local authorities in early 2025 will further drive the flow liquidity of the Chinese currency in Hong Kong.
“Throughout the years, China has been opening up the FX market to the outside world and we expect that trend to continue,” says Benihasim. “As the renminbi continues to internationalise and becomes increasingly used as a global trade currency, there is no doubt Hong Kong’s future as an FX hub will be reinforced. As the leading international bank in mainland China and Hong Kong, HSBC remains the go-to for offshore players with dealings in China and for onshore firms with international interests.”
Colloquially referred to as ‘the Hong Kong bank’, HSBC has been present in this important financial centre since the inception of the bank. While Hong Kong is a vital gateway for market participants seeking access to the Chinese onshore FX market, HSBC’s FX offering for the local market in this special administrative region is noteworthy in its own right.
With a diversified client base in Hong Kong spanning retail, wealth, corporates and financial institutions, HSBC has very high internalisation rates of spot flows, enabling it to achieve tighter pricing for clients, in addition to significantly reducing information leakage and market impact. Across all trading channels, HSBC leads its peers in the e-FX trading space, and the bank consistently ranks high in the provision of spot, forwards and swap liquidity on multi-dealer platforms, particularly for the USD/HKD currency pairs.
The trading of Asian currency has also gathered pace in Singapore, with non‑deliverable forwards trading by clients performing particularly well, and volumes increasing 30% over the past 12 months. Additionally, HSBC Singapore was the first registered foreign institution to transact a Korean won-deliverable FX swap offshore, as part of the Bank of Korea’s FX Market Structural Improvement Plan, aimed at liberalising the currency. As a result, eligible HSBC clients now enjoy longer trading hours for deliverable KRW.
Also, in Singapore, HSBC provided corporates with tailored analysis and strategies to manage their exposures and achieve their objectives. To this end, the bank introduced a new instrument – the bonus forward – to allow corporates to express a range-bound view on the FX market and achieve a more favourable hedge rate within that range. And, to better serve its growing client base of private banks, HSBC has enhanced distribution of FX derivatives through multi‑dealer channels.
In India, the authorities have gone a long way to liberalise the local FX market, with USD/INR trading now a 24-hour market and the creation of Gift City, a financial services and technology hub located in Gujarat. With an advantageous regulatory environment, Gift City provides international firms with a favourable access point into the growing Indian market and a good base for Indian firms going global.
With a presence spanning more than 150 years in the country, HSBC serves the full client spectrum in India. With a growing share of the market, HSBC can provide liquidity across products and is one of the few banks providing USD/INR pricing across time zones and for up to five years. Always at the forefront of product liberalisation, HSBC has now executed its first deal-contingent trade in FX options.
With an extensive network of trading and sales sites across Apac and worldwide, HSBC is able to provide its clients with access to deep onshore liquidity pools across a wide range of currencies and products. The bank tailors its approach to clients across countries to allow them to hedge their FX exposure in restricted currencies and around the world.
HSBC was named FX house of the year for Apac, China, Hong Kong, Singapore and India at the 2025 FX Markets Asia Awards.
When the New Taiwan dollar (TWD) surged unexpectedly on May 2 and 5, the country’s giant life insurers were immediately blamed for the move, given their huge size relative to the Taiwanese domestic market.
Market participants, however, have mixed views on how active the insurers really were – but they agree the moves were exacerbated by hedge funds betting on the currency’s rise after the central bank decided not to intervene aggressively to halt its wild appreciation.
“This has been driven by
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Lawyers say dealers are looking to update playbooks for terminating derivatives trades
Banks have been looking to update procedures for dealing with over-the-counter derivatives close-outs and margin calls following the recent bout of US tariff-driven market turbulence, according to lawyers.
The market volatility that followed US President Donald Trump’s back-and-forth tariff announcements has had financial institutions contacting lawyers to tighten up their internal playbooks for dealing with collateral calls and close-outs, where a trade is terminated early if a counterparty
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US president Donald Trump’s whipsawing tariff policies created a perfect storm for foreign exchange options dealers, as hedge funds rushed to short US dollar positions while systematic volatility sellers and large macro funds sat on the sidelines.
The ensuing volatility left traders wondering if they had slipped into the wrong desks, or even another dimension.
“The scale of the moves for EUR/USD on April 11 made it more volatile than USD/TRY on the day,” says Saurabh Tandon, global head of FX
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Available liquidity for single clips dropped to as low as $20 million ahead of tariff pause
Liquidity conditions in the global spot foreign exchange markets have been strained since US President Donald Trump announced his so-called reciprocal tariffs last week and was getting even worse before yesterday’s decision to temporarily pause the duties.
FX dealers say liquidity collapsed despite volumes spiking across both algorithmic and principal spot trading desks.
“Under typical conditions if you swept all EUR/USD order books, you’d be able to do maybe $70–80 million in one go if you really
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US corporates are having a hard time responding to increased currency volatility as internal restrictions around hedging programmes make it difficult for them to react quickly to the shifting strength of the dollar.
Heightened foreign exchange volatility, driven in particular by President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff announcements, has seen the dollar weaken and made it difficult for corporates to forecast future cashflows from foreign earnings or imports. Treasurers, however, lack the
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In the US, March Madness is synonymous with the annual knockout college basketball tournament, known for its unpredictable results and stunning turnarounds.
But the country has seemingly exported this concept to its foreign policy in the past month, with shifting tariff threats, territorial disputes and abortive peace talks with Russia putting foreign exchange on the front line of market reaction (cue the Make FX Great Again slogans…).
All this has come much to the delight of foreign exchange options dealers, where for the first time in a long while clients all have a different idea of where they think the US dollar will go. But US president Donald Trump’s continued flip-flopping over when and by how much to impose trade tariffs has made it extremely difficult for people to take a clear view.
There are those that assume Trump’s policies are artificially weakening the currency – for instance, Treasury secretary Scott Bessant recently said the dollar’s decline is a “natural adjustment” after years of strengthening.
Everyone seems to have a different view, which is music to the ears of market-makers
Meanwhile, Germany’s landmark plans to increase defence spending have reawakened euro volatility, flipping market sentiment to euro/US dollar call trades, with some now putting on positions of EUR/USD grinding higher.
Additionally, traders have also flocked to historical safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc. Dealers suggest US dollar/yen has undergone one of the biggest adjustments to date, with the consensus trade amongst hedge funds being to place short-dated topside USD/JPY calls as a hedge against falling equity markets.
Others, perhaps, are positioning for a dollar rebound – as the underlying factors that drove the dollar higher and threats of tariffs on Europe remain – and are now taking advantage of a more favourable entry point. Even with the sharp rise in EUR/USD in recent weeks, for example, some traders still have parity bets on.
Leveraged structures such as European knockouts and put spreads have also seen demand to cheapen these positions.
Meanwhile, a pause by the Bank of Japan on further rate rises has led to a rise in USD/JPY, and traders are also positioning for a weakening of the Swiss franc in anticipation of expected rate cuts.
Everyone seems to have a different view, which is music to the ears of market-makers, even if they’ve had to adjust to a new focus on Asia hours trading. Volumes are good, but when those volumes are multi-directional, it makes it even easier to match speculative bets with corporate and private bank supply. Those with a large enough franchise will be able to capture even more flow and provide tighter liquidity.
It’s also been bringing new hedgers into the market. Real money firms holding US equities are said to be considering hedging downside dollar risk, given typical “markets down, dollar up” correlations have not been holding as they once did.
And it’s not just in the G10. Emerging markets have also felt some excitement, with prospects of a truce in the Ukraine-Russia war seeing the ruble gain a lot of strength this year, and yet more political turmoil in Turkey causing USD/TRY to take off once again.
But it hasn’t been smooth sailing for everyone. Some clients have been hurt, most notably Brevan Howard, which reported its worst start to the year as a result of wrong-way bets, via FX options, on US dollar strengthening. If clients lose money, that often means a decline in volumes.
Furthermore, corporates and pension funds that had moved to lock-in strong USD hedges in January and February are not as nimble when reassessing these positions – they often must go through several layers of board approvals first.
Nevertheless, high vols and a high-vol surface, coupled with a liquid market, do suggest a healthier FX options market for dealers. And the likely continuation of Trump-related headline risk and central bank event risk means dealers are even more optimistic that this buoyant volatility market will continue.
Price gaps in spot FX markets could be exacerbated by algos trading on headline risk
The increase in sudden large movements in foreign exchange spot markets driven by President Donald Trump’s chaotic tariff announcements may be being amplified by market-maker pricing algorithms reacting to changes in intraday volatility and limiting how much risk they can take on, say some dealers.
As spot FX market flows have moved to electronic channels over the years, liquidity providers (LPs) increasingly rely on pricing algos to react to market news and set bid/offer spreads. An estimated 75
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The so-called Trump trade of going long the US dollar via foreign exchange options has seemingly come to a sudden stop following the euro’s massive rally last week, forcing traders to U-turn on their bets.
“I think the Trump trade is now dead and all the USD calls that were bought in various forms are either worthless or unwound,” says an FX options trader at one UK hedge fund.
The move also created hedging headaches for market-makers trying to manage their options exposures as euro/US dollar
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Dealers expect an increase in deal contingent foreign exchange hedging activity in 2025, in conjunction with heightened takeover deals from corporates and private equity firms in the latter part of the year.
“We’ve certainly seen an uptick in deal contingent hedging,” says Edmund Carroll, head of FX, rates and commodities corporate client solutions at UBS. “Compared to 2022 the number of DC trades is magnitudes higher now, simply because of the far higher deal flow.”
As of March 4, the total year
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Banks, the buy side and brokers are increasingly adopting automation from the beginning to the end of trading workflows, to optimise execution speed and efficiency. This evolution has been particularly evident in foreign exchange trading, where algorithmic decision-making has become more prevalent across desks, driven by the need to respond instantly to market data shifts.
Foreign exchange trading workflows, in particular, have seen rapid adoption of algorithm-driven decision-making across desks
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Dual currency notes find favour with treasurers under pressure to boost yields amid higher rates
Some corporate treasurers are taking advantage of more volatile foreign exchange and interest rate markets to invest their foreign cash holdings into yield-enhancing structured products, as an alternative to deposits or money market funds.
Dealers say corporate treasurers are increasingly under pressure to improve returns on cash in the higher-rate environment, and have been turning to dual currency notes (DCNs) as a result. Rising FX volatility and wider interest rate differentials result in a
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Dealers say vanillas, digitals and knockouts on realised vol increasingly used to navigate Trump news flow
Hedge funds are increasingly taking out complex options structures that speculate on pricing of foreign exchange volatility levels across several currencies linked to US president Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Investors have increasingly looked to incorporate vol-linked knockouts in vanilla FX options to cheapen them up and avoid crowded barrier zones. Others have looked at options directly on realised volatility, including spread trades across multiple currencies.
“We continue to see a very inverted
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