Tag: XAUUSD

• Bullion rallies to five-week high amid geopolitical tension and dovish Fed outlook
• Israel strikes Iran, fueling fears of broader war and driving flight to safety into Gold.
• XAU/USD hits $3,446 before easing on profit-taking; eyes next week’s Fed decision and US data slate.

Gold price rallied for the third consecutive day after the Israel-Iran conflict erupted on Friday, triggering a risk-off mood in financial markets as fears that it could escalate loom. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,422, up more than 1%.

Several factors underpin bullion. On Friday, Israel’s attack on Iran’s military installations, nuclear facilities and senior officials augmented tension in the area. After the attack,  XAU/USD reached a five-week high of $3,446 before retreating somewhat to its current levels as traders booked profits ahead of the weekend.

Softer US CPI and PPI strengthen bets on Fed rate cuts despite improving consumer sentiment

Another factor was that inflation in the United States (US) continued to ease following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) figures for May. Recently, a University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment survey revealed that households are becoming more optimistic about the economy, yet they remain worried about higher prices.

US President Donald Trump hinted that Iran brought the attack on itself, as Washington warned Iran to restrict its nuclear program.

Next week, traders will be watching the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, where officials will update their economic projections. Besides this, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, housing and jobs data could help dictate Gold’s direction.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price surges on risk aversion

• Recently, US President Trump said to Axios that Israel’s attack could help him reach an agreement with Iran. He urged Iran to make a deal, adding, “There has already been great death and destruction, but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end.”
• The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment report in June showed that households are becoming more optimistic about the economy. The Sentiment Index rose from 52.2 to 60.5, while inflation expectations decreased for both one-year and five-year periods, from 6.6% to 5.1% and from 4.2% to 4.1%, respectively.
• Although the data is positive and clears the path for the Federal Reserve to ease policy, the escalation of the Middle East conflict pushed Oil prices up by more than 6%. This suggests that Gasoline prices could increase, and that a reacceleration of inflation looms.
• US Treasury yields are recovering, with the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing over seven basis points (bps) to 4.436%. US real yields followed suit, rising seven basis points to 2.186%, capping Bullion’s advance.
• The Greenback rises after hitting three-year lows, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the value of the Dollar against a basket of peers, is up 0.30% at 98.15 after hitting a multi-year low of 97.60.
• Goldman Sachs reiterated that the price of Bullion would rise to $3,700 by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026. Bank of America (BofA) sees Gold at $4,000 over the next 12 months.
• Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 47 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Source: Prime Market Terminal

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price consolidates near $3,400

Gold price is set to extend its gains past the $3,450 figure, clearing the path to challenge the record high of $3,500 in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that momentum remains bullishly biased, and with that in mind, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside.

Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below $3,450, the first support would be the $3,400 mark. If it surpasses, the next stop would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,281, ahead of the April 3 high-turned-support at $3,167.

• XAU/USD drops as strong US Dollar pressures Bullion; tariff uncertainty rattles markets.
• US core PCE dips in April, but strong data lifts yields, dampening Gold’s appeal.
• Trump accuses China of violating trade deal, reviving geopolitical and tariff concerns.

Gold price slumped on Friday as the US Dollar recovered some ground despite witnessing a drop in US Treasury bond yields following a strong inflation report, which keeps traders hopeful that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will ease policy in 2025. XAU/USD trades at $3,289, down 0.83%.

Sentiment shifted sour as US President Donald Trump complained that China is not fulfilling the agreement negotiated between both parties in Switzerland. He wrote, “China, perhaps not surprisingly to some, HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!”

Consequently, US equities fell, while the American Dollar recovered from near daily lows, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Turning to trade-related news, a US Federal Appeals Court reinstated most of Trump’s tariffs imposed on April 2, “Liberation Day,” following a decision by a US Court of International Trade, which blocked most of the duties as they were considered illegal.

The US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index dipped in April compared to March’s meeting. Other data showed that the University of Michigan’s (UoM) Consumer Sentiment in May’s final reading improved compared to estimates, while inflation expectations declined.

Gold daily market movers: Tumbles despite soft US inflation data amid US Dollar strength

• Gold price is pressured due to a strong US Dollar.The DXY, which tracks the US Dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies, edges up 0.11% to 99.44.
• US Treasury bond yields are falling. The US 10-year Treasury note yield falls two basis points to 4.40%, while US real yields are also edging down by the same amount 2.086%, slightly below the May 29 close.
• The US core PCE in April showed the evolution of the disinflation process, which was driven by the Fed’s restrictive interest rates. The reading came in at 2.5% YoY, down from 2.6%. Headline inflation came in at 2.1% YoY, below March’s 2.3% rise.
• Despite witnessing a lower inflation environment, Bullion prices failed to gain traction as US Dollar short positions in the futures market were trimmed in the last week, according to Commitments of Traders (COT) data.
• The UoM Consumer Sentiment in May improved from 50.8 to 52.2, exceeding estimates on its final reading. It is worth noting that inflation expectations fell. For the 12 months ahead, expectations fell from 7.3% to 6.6%, and for the next five years, they dropped from 4.6% to 4.2%.
• After the data release, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow preliminary reading of economic growth for Q2 2025 rose sharply from 2.2% to 3.8%.
• Federal Reserve officials crossed the wires on Thursday, emphasizing that the monetary policy is in a good place and that it would take some time to see a shift in the balance of risks for the Fed’s dual mandate.
• San Francisco’s Fed President Mary Daly said the labor market is in solid shape and revealed that it would not reach the 2% inflation goal in 2025. Despite this, she said that if jobs are solid and the disinflation process continues, it would make sense to cut rates twice as markets expect.
• Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 52 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, following the release of US data, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Source: Prime Market Terminal

XAU/USD technical outlook: Tumbles and poised to test $3,250

Gold price uptrend is intact, though XAU/USD spot prices achieving a daily/weekly close below $3,300 could sponsor some sideways trading action within the $3,250-$3,300 range amid the lack of fresh catalysts ahead of the weekend.

For a bearish resumption, sellers must drive Gold prices below $3,250, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,221. A breach of the latter will expose the April 3 high turned support at $3,167.

Conversely, if bulls push XAU/USD past $3,300, the next key resistance levels will be $3,350, $3,400, the May 7 swing high of $3,438 and the record high $3,500.

• Gold drops 0.27% after Fed cites tariff-driven inflation concerns; yields rebound, stalling bullion’s rally.
• Fed minutes highlight risks of persistent inflation and weakening job growth, prompting cautious rate stance.
• US bond yields rebound, lifting the Dollar and pressuring Gold below $3,300.
• Goldman Sachs urges increased Gold exposure amid rising geopolitical risks and central bank demand.

Gold price extended its losses during the North American session on Wednesday after hitting a daily high of $3,325 earlier in the day, as market participants digested the latest Federal Reserve (Fed) policy minutes. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades below $3,300, resulting in a solid 0.27% decline.

On May 6-7, the Fed decided to keep rates unchanged, citing uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on the economy. Officials adopted a patience approach due to increased risks of high inflation and unemployment, fueled by the potential impact of tariffs.

Policymakers acknowledged some stagflation risks as they noted the “Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if inflation proves to be more persistent while the outlooks for growth and employment weaken.”

Therefore, the Fed has taken a cautious approach regarding monetary policy, waiting for the “net economic effects of the array of changes to government policies to become clearer.” It is worth noting that the Fed meeting took place before Trump reduced tariffs on China from 145% to 30%.

Bullion’s rally appears to have stalled during the week, as US Treasury bond yields recovered some of the previous week’s fall, underpinning the US Dollar. However, a surprise dovish tilt in the minutes, the less likely scenario, could drive XAU/USD prices higher.

On Tuesday, Fox Business News Gasparino, in a post on X, revealed that a framework between the US and India is close to being announced. It should be noted that the US has taken a more flexible approach to trade talks.

Despite this, the Gold upside remains due to increasing geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Middle East conflict involving Israel and Hamas.

Goldman Sachs analysts recommended a higher-than-usual allocation to Gold in long-term portfolios, revealed Reuters. They cite elevated risks to US institutional credibility, pressure on the Fed, and sustained central bank demand.

Ahead in the week, the docket will feature the second estimate for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Q1 2025, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

Gold daily market movers: Bullion retreats on strong US Dollar and high US yields

• US Treasury bond yields are rising as the 10-year Treasury note yield increases by four and a half basis points (bps) to 4.493%. Meanwhile, US real yields also advance four bps at 2.171%.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, rises over 0.33% to 99.89, fueled by an improvement in Consumer Confidence data, which grew the most in four years, revealed the Conference Board .
• New York Fed President John Williams said that inflation expectations are well-anchored and added that he wants to avoid inflation becoming highly persistent, as that could become permanent.
• Data revealed that Gold imports to Switzerland from the US rose to its highest level since at least 2012 in April.
• Besides this, Reuters revealed that “China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.”
• Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 45 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Source: Prime Market Terminal

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price pullback to challenge $3,250

Gold prices have consolidated within the $3,280-$3,330 range over the last four trading sessions, as bullish momentum appears to be fading due to technical reasons. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), is aiming toward its 50-neutral line, which if broken, could sponsor a leg-lower in XAU/USD prices.

For a continuation of the uptrend, bulls must clear $3,300, $3,400 and the May 7 swing high of $3,438. If achieved, Gold’s next goal would be $3,500.

On the downside, Gold tumbling below $3,250 could expose a move to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,211, followed by the May 20 daily low of $3,204.

• Gold price dips over 0.50% as improved sentiment trims haven flows after last week’s 4.86% surge.
• Trump postpones 50% EU tariffs to July 9, easing short-term trade war fears.
• Strong Chinese Gold imports and Russia-Ukraine tensions keep the bullish outlook intact.

Gold price drops more than 0.50% on Monday amid the lack of demand for haven assets after United States (US) President Donald Trump delayed tariffs on the European Union (EU). In the meantime, trading remains thin due to the closure of the United Kingdom (UK) and US financial markets for holidays. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,336.

Market mood improved on Trump’s statement on Sunday, pushing back the enactment of duties on EU products until July 9. Therefore, Bullion is pressured following last week’s gains of over 4.86%, the most significant increase since the week starting on April 7.

On Friday, XAU/USD extended its bullish move as Trump continued to pressure Apple (AAPL) to make iPhones in the US. If not, 25% of duties would be imposed. At the same time, he escalated the rhetoric against the EU, threatening to impose 50% tariffs on its goods. This drove the golden metal from $3,287 to last week’s highest high of $3,365.

Despite retreating, Gold prices are set to continue rallying, as Reuters revealed that “China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled in April from March, and were the highest since March 2024, data showed.”

Additionally, geopolitical risks remain high after Russia attacked Ukraine for the third straight night, spurring an angry reaction on Trump.

This week, the US economic docket will feature April Durable Goods Orders, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, the second estimate for Q1 2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.

Gold daily market movers: Improvement in risk appetite weighs on Gold prices

• US Treasury bond yields remain steady. The 10-year Treasury note yield fell two basis points (bps) on Friday to 4.509%. Meanwhile, US real yields were down as well, one 4 bps to 2.179%.
• Gold price outlook is optimistic, given the fragile market mood toward US assets sparked by the growing fiscal deficit in the United States, which ignited Moody’s downgrade of US government debt from AAA to AA1.
• The fiscal package approved by the US lower house is projected to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, edged down 0.10% at 99.00, a tailwind for the Dollar-denominated precious metal.
• Money markets suggest that traders are pricing in 47.5 basis points of easing toward the end of the year, according to Prime Market Terminal data.

Source: Prime Market Terminal

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold’s uptrend to extend to $3,400

Gold prices retreated slightly, and it seems traders are booking profits amid thin liquidity and low volatility in the US in observance of the holiday. Trump’s inconsistency regarding trade policies could keep prices swinging violently once trading resumes on Tuesday.

From a technical perspective, Gold’s bull trend remains intact. If buyers achieve a daily close above $3,300, they could test last week’s high of $3,365. If surpassed, the next stop would be the $3,400 figure, followed by the May 7 high at $3,438 and the all-time high (ATH) at $3,500.

On the bearish side, if Gold drops below $3,300, expect a move to the May 20 daily low of $3,204, ahead of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,199.

• Gold snaps two-day losing streak, gaining 1.5% on fresh trade war fears.
• Trump softens tariff talk, but China denies negotiations and demands full rollback.
• Fed rate cut bets rise as yields drop and economic uncertainty builds.

Gold price snapped two days of losses on Thursday and rose $50, or more than 1.50%, amid renewed concerns about the US-China trade war. Even though US President Donald Trump softened his stance on sticking to 145% tariffs on Beijing, the XAU/USD trades at $3,338 after jumping off daily lows of $3,287.

Market mood remains upbeat with Wall Street posting gains. Although traders seem relieved by Trump’s willingness to reach a deal with Beijing, China plays hardball and asks to cancel all “unilateral” US tariffs, clarifying that they have not held talks with the US government.

Bullion prices advance underpinned by the plunge in US Treasury bond yields. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is also feeling the pain after hitting four-day peaks against a basket of six currencies.

US economic data witnessed the release of Initial Jobless Claims for the last week, which was aligned with estimates. Durable Goods Orders jumped sharply in March, sponsored by airplane orders.

Meanwhile, a wave of Federal Reserve (Fed) officials grabbed the headlines. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated the Fed could act as soon as June if the data supports it but emphasized that uncertainty is weighing on business planning.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller echoed a similar tone, noting that while action in June remains on the table, rate cuts may be driven by a weakening labor market. Waller said, “rate cuts could come from rising unemployment.”

Regarding the chances of the Fed reducing interest rates at the upcoming meeting, traders see a 94% chance of keeping them unchanged, according to Prime Market Terminal. Nevertheless, traders expect the Fed funds rate to end at 3.45%, equal to 86 basis points of easing (bps).

Source: Prime Market Terminal

Daily digest market movers: Gold price climbs boosted by weak US Dollar

• The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note has decreased by seven-and-a-half basis points, reaching 4.31%.
• US real yields collapsed seven bps to 2.023%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields.
• US Durable Goods Orders soared in March from 0.9% to 9.2%, sponsored by aircraft bookings. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 19 rose by 222K as expected, up from 216K in the previous reading.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price uptrend resumes as buyers reclaim $3,300

The Gold price uptrend resumed, yet buyers must clear the April 22 high of $3,386 to prevent sellers from dragging lower prices. The next key resistance level would be $3,400, followed by the $3,450 and the $3,500 figure.

On the other hand, if XAU/USD tumbles below $3,300, this could open the door to test $3,200 ahead of the April 3 peak of $3,167. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,041.

• Gold hits fresh all-time high as Trump attacks Powell, calling him “a major loser” for delaying rate cuts.
• DXY plunges to 97.92 as Fed independence is questioned and stagflation risks remain in focus.
• Traders brace for key Fed speeches this week from Jefferson, Harker, and Kashkari amid growing policy uncertainty.

Gold price begins the week on a higher note, gaining over 2.56% and refreshing a previous record high as the precious metal hits $3,430 on uncertainty about comments that threat to curtail the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence. At the time of writing,  XAU/USD trades at $3,419 after hitting a daily low of $3,329.

Demand for bullion has increased as United States (US) President Donald Trump continues to exert pressure on the Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell called him a “major loser” and said he is always too late to reduce borrowing costs.

Last week, Powell said the US central bank is in wait-and-see mode and even flagged the chance of a stagflationary scenario, acknowledging, “We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension.”

Growing tensions between Trump and Powell, along with controversial trade policies, weighed on the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), has fallen to three-year lows of 97.92.

Data-wise, the US economic docket is absent, though it would gather traction mainly supported by Fed speakers. Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson, Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Neel Kashkari are all set to deliver remarks on Tuesday.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price soars to record high amid high US yields

• The US 10-year Treasury yield rises four basis points to 4.373% yet fails to cap Bullion prices.
• US real yields followed suit, climbing three and a half bps to 2.14%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields
• In rates markets, money market traders have priced in 94.5 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.
• Data-wise, this week the US economic docket will be packed by a flurry of Fed speakers, S&P Global Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment final reading.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price poised to challenge $3,450 in the near term

The uptrend in Gold prices remains in play, even with the chance of testing the $3,500  level touted by Citi to be reached in the next three months. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned overbought, an indication that the precious metal could be set for a pullback, but a breach of the latest peak suggests that bulls could reach $3,450 in the near term.

Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below $3,400, the first support would be the April 17 high of $3,357, followed by $3,300.

• Gold pulls back from $3,357 all-time high as Powell warns Fed’s goals may conflict, raising stagflation concerns.
• Market mixed: Dow dips on UnitedHealth crash while other indices see modest gains.
• Trump signals trade progress with EU and China; ECB cuts rates 25 bps, widening global policy divergence.

Gold retreated on Thursday ahead of the Good Friday Easter holiday, losing 0.60%, after enjoying a rally of close to $400 gains during the last seven trading days on uncertainty about the United States’ (US) trade policies. /USD trades at $3,319 after hitting a record high of $3,357 earlier in the session.

Market mood closed the last trading day of the week mixed, with two of the three main US indices posting gains, while the UnitedHealth Group plunge hit the Dow Jones. Wednesday’s speech by the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell continues to be digested by the markets.

Fed Chair Powell turned hawkish, revealing that a weak economy and high inflation could conflict with the central bank’s two goals, making a stagflationary scenario possible.

“We may find ourselves in the challenging scenario in which our dual-mandate goals are in tension,” he said. “If that were to occur, we would consider how far the economy is from each goal, and the potentially different time horizons over which those respective gaps would be anticipated to close.”

Regarding trade talks, Trump said they’re doing well and added that he is very confident about a trade deal with the European Union (EU) and China.

Data-wise, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced rates by 25 basis points earlier and the US economic docket revealed the US labor market remains solid, but not so housing, after printing strong Building Permits figures, but weak Housing Starts.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price falls as US yields rise

• The US 10-year Treasury yield rises five basis points to 4.333%. US real yields followed suit, climbing five bps to 2.163%, as shown by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields failing to cap Gold prices.
• US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 came in at 215K, down from 224K and below the 225K forecast—highlighting continued strength in the labor market.
• Building Permits rose 1.6% to 1.482 million, exceeding the 1.45 million estimates. In contrast, Housing Starts dropped sharply from 1.494 million to 1.324 million, indicating softness in residential construction.
• In rates markets, money market traders have priced in 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price retraces, but remains poised to test new record highs

The uptrend in Gold prices remains despite retreating somewhat on Thursday, below the $3,330 figure. As the precious metals trim some of their earlier losses, price action indicates the lack of acceptance of lower prices, opening the door for further upside.

From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought but not near the 80 extreme level. Nevertheless, as the RSI aims lower, it suggests that a mean reversion move is on the cards. In the event of that outcome, XAU/USD’s first support would be the $3,300 figure. A breach of the latter will expose the April 16 daily low of $3,229.

If bulls push prices past $3,350, they could test the year-to-date (YTD) peak, followed by $3,400.

• Gold hits fresh all-time high amid speculation Trump’s April 2 tariffs could target all trade partners.
• Goldman ups US recession odds to 35% as sentiment deteriorates and Washington signals tolerance for slowdown.
• DXY and yields rise but fail to dent Gold’s rally as safe-haven flows dominate ahead of key US data.

Gold prints another record high on Monday, surpassing the $3,100 threshold for the first time and extends its gains to an all-time high of $3,127 before retreating somewhat. Uncertainty surrounding US trade policies and the April 2 Liberation Day is lingering, with investors shifting risk-averse and flocking to the yellow metal’s safe-haven appeal. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $3,119, up more than 1%.

Risk appetite deteriorates as traders await the announcement of additional tariffs on Wednesday. Goldman Sachs revealed that the odds of a recession in the United States (US) rose from 20% to 35%, primarily due to business and household pessimism about the outlook, as well as Washington’s tolerance of a deeper economic slowdown.

Trump’s comments on Sunday on Air Force One increased the chances that tariffs could be universal, instead of the 10 or 15 revealed by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. “Who told you 10 or 15? You might have heard it, but you didn’t hear it from me,” the President said. “You’d start with all countries. So let’s see what happens.”

Therefore, Bullion prices exploded, even though US Treasury bond yields had recovered some ground, particularly the coupon of the 10-year T-note. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the buck against a basket of six currencies, climbs 0.24% to 104.25.

On the data front, the Chicago PMI improved, despite remaining in contractionary territory for the sixteenth straight month. Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature the ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, as well as Nonfarm Payrolls figures.

Daily digest market movers: Gold prices rises amid firm US Treasury yields

• The US 10-year T-note yield is flat at 4.257%. US real yields edge down two bps to 1.86%, according to US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yields.
• The Chicago PMI data for March rose by 47.6 points from 45.5 and exceeded forecasts of 45.2. Notably, it is the largest level since November 2023, yet it remains in contractionary territory for the sixteenth consecutive month.
• Some of the subcomponents improved, like Production, New Orders, Employment, and Order Backlogs. Supplier Deliveries, Inventories and Prices Paid dipped, according to the poll.
• Last week’s US inflation data held steady, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Nevertheless, the risks of a recession drove market participants to price in over 74 basis points of easing toward the end of 2025, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade.
• In the geopolitics space, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 25%-50% on buyers of Russian oil, if Moscow blocks his efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
• Wall Street’s banks had updated their Gold forecasts last week. Economists at Goldman Sachs, Société Générale, and Bank of America identified $3,300 as the next target, according to a Kitco article.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price rallies past $3,050, eyes on $3,100

Gold’s rally expands. The yellow metal is up 18.96% so far this year, and due to uncertainty in the financial markets, the uptrend could continue. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, traders should be aware that, due to the aggressiveness of the move, the most extreme level is 80.

The XAU/USD’s next resistance would be the psychological $3,150 and $3,200 on the upside. On the other hand, Bullion’s first support would be $3,100. A breach of the latter will expose the March 20 high turned support at $3,057, followed by the $3,000 figure.

• Gold drops over 1% Friday as USD strengthens, hitting 10-day high at 107.66.
• XAU/USD falls to $2,845 as Fed rate-cut bets rise
• Trump confirms 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, fueling market uncertainty.
• Fed expected to cut rates by 70 bps in 2025 with first cut projected for June.

Gold extended its losses on Friday, down more than 1% and over 3% in the week. The US Dollar rose to a ten-day peak of 107.66 amid fears of trade policies in the United States (US) and data that has sparked recessionary worries. The XAU/USD trades at $2,845 after reaching a daily peak of $2,885.

According to US President Donald Trump, 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian products will be applied next week on March 4. The release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, hinted that inflation continued progressing toward the 2% Fed goal.

Expectations that the Fed would continue to ease policy rose after the data. According to Prime Market Terminal, the Fed will lower interest rates by 70 basis points this year with investors projecting the first rate cut in June.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate has also been updated for Q1 2025. The model shows the economy will contract from a 2.3% expansion to -1.5 %. After the data, the 10-year US Treasury note yield dropped three basis points, and the US Dollar (USD) advanced on recession woes.

In the meantime, some Fed speakers crossed the wires. The Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack said that a rate hike is not in the cards, and the impact of trade policies on monetary policy and the economy remains uncertain.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price treads water as US recession looms

• The core PCE in the US rose 0.3% MoM from December and increased 2.6% YoY, as estimated, down from December’s 2.8% increase.
• The headline PCE jumped by 2.5% YoY as expected, dipping from 2.6%, and remained unchanged every month at 0.3%, as projected.
• Meanwhile, traders continued to digest US President Donald Trump’s tariff rhetoric. He said 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada would start next week, alongside an additional 10% on China.
• The US 10-year Treasury note yield is at 4.229%, capping the Bullion price decline. US real yields, as measured by the yield in the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), edge lower five bps to 1.853%.
• Last week, Goldman Sachs revised Gold price projections to $3,100 by the end of 2025.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold extends losses beneath $2,850

Gold price registers back-to-back bearish candles, a sign that traders are booking profits ahead of the weekend and squaring their portfolios at the end of the month. Once XAU/USD dropped below $2,900, it extended its fall toward $2,832, but a daily close above 2,850 would keep buyers hopeful for higher prices.

In that outcome, XAU/USD first resistance would be the $2,900 mark, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) high of $2,956. Otherwise, Gold’s first support would be $2,800, followed by the October 31 daily peak at $2,790 and by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,770.

• Gold touches all-time high of $2,954 amid trade policy uncertainty.
• Trump expands tariffs to lumber and soft commodities, adding market jitters.
• US data mixed: Manufacturing PMI improves, but Services PMI contracts.

Gold price slides late on Friday, poised to end the week positively, accumulating eight straight weeks of gains that pushed the yellow metal to all-time highs of $2,954. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades at $2,940, down 0.15%.

The financial markets’ narrative has not changed as US President Donald Trump continues with rhetoric related to tariffs. In addition to imposing 25% tariffs on cars, pharmaceuticals and chips, Trump broadened duties to lumber and other soft commodities.

This fueled the rally in Bullion prices as investors seeking safety drove prices higher amidst uncertainty about US trade policies. Meanwhile, geopolitics took a second stage as there was some progress in the discussion to end the Russia-Ukraine war, which relieved the markets.

Data-wise, business activity in the United States was mixed. The manufacturing PMI improved. Conversely, the Services PMI plunged for the first time since January 2023.

Other data showed that Existing Home Sales plunged, and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Final reading for February deteriorated further.

Daily digest market movers: Gold price fails to capitalize on US yields drop

• The US 10-year Treasury bond yield falls nine basis points (bps) and yields 4.416%.

• US real yields, which correlate inversely to Bullion prices, drop four basis points to 1.996%, a tailwind for Bullion prices.
• US S&P Global revealed the Manufacturing PMI in February expanded by 51.6, up from 51.2, exceeding forecasts. The Services PMI plummeted from 52.9 to 49.7.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February dipped from 71.1 to 64.7. American consumers’ inflation expectations for one year rose from 3.3% to 4.3% as foreseen, and for a five-year period, they are anchored at 3.5%, up from 3.2% revealed in the previous month.
• The Federal Reserve’s Meeting Minutes from Wednesday revealed that Trump’s trade and immigration policies fueled concerns over rising prices.
• The World Gold Council revealed that central bank purchases rose more than 54% YoY to 333 tonnes following Trump’s victory.
• Money market fed funds futures are pricing in 50 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price faces resistance and retreats

Gold price remains upwardly biased, yet the trend seems exhausted. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests that buyers are losing ground with the RSI’s exiting from overbought territory opening the door for a retracement in Bullion prices.

The first key support area to look at is $2,900. Once surpassed, sellers would target the February 14 swing low of $2,877, followed by the February 12 daily low of $2,864. Conversely, if XAU/USD rises past $2,954, the first resistance would be the psychological $2,950, followed by $3,000.