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Wheat futures slipped below $5.28 per bushel, pulling back from the eight-week highs reached on January 29, as the supply risks that briefly supported prices have eased and overall availability remains plentiful. Early February gains, driven by weather-related concerns, have largely unwound as short-term forecasts now show reduced extreme cold risks, and NOAA is signaling wetter conditions later this month. This combination lowers the probability of widespread winterkill and eases near-term crop loss risks across the Plains and Midwest.
At the same time, US export commitments remain robust—about 17% higher than a year ago and approaching 90% of the USDA’s full-year projection—but expected US ending stocks are only projected to edge down to around 918 million bushels, preserving a substantial supply cushion. Positioning has also been scaled back ahead of the February WASDE report, adding to downward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, competitively priced wheat from the Black Sea region and other key exporters continues to limit upside potential by keeping global supplies well covered.