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European natural gas futures are poised to surge on Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East threaten global LNG supplies. Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have heightened regional instability, prompting Tehran to block traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for nearly 20% of global LNG trade, including exports from Qatar.
Qatari LNG accounts for around 15% of Europe’s imports, but any disruption would likely hit Asian buyers hardest, intensifying competition for alternative cargoes and tightening the global market. That, in turn, would push up prices and weigh on Europe through indirect, yet significant, knock-on effects.
The risk is compounded by relatively low gas storage levels in the EU, now below 31%, compared with 40% at the same time last year. Germany’s storage is at 20.5% and France’s at 21%, leaving the region increasingly vulnerable to supply shocks.