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The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note slipped to around 4.3% on Friday, as investors grew more optimistic that a near-term agreement between the US and Iran could be reached. US President Trump said it was “looking very good” that a deal was within reach, noting that talks could resume over the weekend. He also claimed—without offering evidence—that Iran had accepted terms it had previously rejected. Geopolitical tensions showed tentative signs of easing, with Israel and Lebanon agreeing to a 10-day ceasefire. Even so, the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, keeping oil prices above $90 per barrel—about one-third higher than when the conflict began in late February. In this context, market expectations for monetary policy have shifted: traders now expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged through 2026, a marked reversal from earlier forecasts that had priced in two rate cuts before the conflict escalated.