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Gold climbed toward $4,200 an ounce on Monday, recovering some of its recent losses as oil prices extended their decline. The move in crude followed reports that the US and Iran had agreed on a roadmap toward a final peace deal within 60 days. That development helped ease market tensions after both sides had recently traded threats over the conflict in Lebanon, with Tehran claiming once again that it had closed the Strait of Hormuz. In practice, however, millions of barrels of crude continued to flow through the key waterway over the weekend, while Persian Gulf producers prepared to ramp up output.
Investors also turned their focus to this week’s release of the US PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged last week but maintained a hawkish tone. Nine of the central bank’s 19 policymakers now expect at least one additional rate hike this year, and market participants are increasingly pricing in a move as early as September.