Solid expectations following encouraging Q3
easyJet is gearing up to release its full-year results for the period ending September 2025 on 25 November.
easyJet financial expectations:
easyJet is expected to see a rise in its revenue, pre-tax profit and earnings per share (EPS):
FY revenue: £10.11 billion, representing a 8.6% year-over-year (YoY) increase
Pre-tax profit: £656 million, up 7.5% YoY
EPS: 65.35p, up 8% from 60.50p last year
The upcoming announcement will be closely scrutinised by investors, particularly after the airline published its trading update for the quarter ended 30 June 2025 in mid-July, which provided a meaningful performance signal.
According to the third quarter (Q3) trading update, easyJet delivered a headline profit before tax of £286 million, up about £50 million YoY, broadly in line with market expectations.
Q3 operational metrics show strong execution
The airline’s available seat kilometres (ASK) increased by 7.9%, while seat count growth was around 2.0%, and enclosed passenger revenue per seat (RASK) rose by 0.5% YoY.
On the cost side, headline cost per available seat kilometre (CASK) was flat overall, with fuel CASK down around 7.3% and underlying CASK ex-fuel up ~2.3%.
The airline’s holidays business also performed well, delivering a pre-tax profit of £86 million, up £13 million YoY, demonstrating the value of diversification.
easyJet’s commentary alongside the Q3 update reaffirmed its expectations for the full year, providing confidence about achieving guidance targets.
Full-year guidance parameters confirmed
ASK growth of approximately 9% YoY (with growth moderating in the second half of the year (H2) at ~7% versus ~12% in the first half of the year (H1)), a reduction in total headline CASK of low single digits.
Headline CASK ex-fuel is expected broadly flat, while the holidays business expects a full-year PBT above £235 million.
Forward bookings for the fourth quarter (Q4) stood at 67% sold as at the update, up one percentage point YoY – a positive indicator given customer booking patterns continuing to shift later.
These metrics suggest operational discipline and capacity management are supporting profitability despite competitive pressures.
Key themes dominate investor focus
Looking ahead to the full-year results, several themes will dominate investor interest.
First, whether easyJet can deliver on its growth expectations in H2, particularly against the backdrop of a modest H1 loss (the company reported a headline loss before tax of £394 million for the six months ended 31 March 2025).
Second, margin performance will be crucial: can the airline keep cost growth in check while scaling capacity, improving utilisation and maintaining yields?
The flat CASK and modest RASK gain in Q3 suggest operational discipline, but the full-year result will show whether this holds in H2.
Holidays business gains strategic importance
Third, easyJet’s strategic focus on its holidays business and network expansion will be under review as the holidays unit has become an increasingly important contributor.
The strength shown in the holidays arm in Q3 provides a tailwind, but execution and margin in that business will be scrutinised for sustainability.
Fourth, liquidity and balance-sheet position remain material given the cyclical nature of the airline industry.
easyJet’s Q3 update noted that liquidity stood at £4.9 billion as at 30 June, about £1.5 billion above its liquidity policy.
Sector risks remain elevated
There are risks affecting the broader airline sector. The industry remains exposed to macro volatility, from fuel prices, currency swings and labour cost inflation to consumer demand softness.
In its Q3 update, easyJet flagged that the July French air-traffic-control strike and rising costs would reduce its profit by about £25 million, despite the solid headline number.
Furthermore, the industry is competitive and under pressure to maintain yields while managing capacity growth, with easyJet’s relatively moderate RASK gain reflecting this reality.
Operational disruptions from strikes, weather, or air-traffic control issues remain constant threats to airline profitability and customer satisfaction.
Analyst rating and technical analysis
According to LSEG Data & Analytics 5 analysts have a ‘strong buy’, 7 a ‘buy’, 7 a ‘hold’ and 1 a ‘sell’ recommendation for easyJet. The mean long-term price target is at 630.83 pence, 36% above the current share price (as of 21/11/2025).