Log in to today’s North American session Market wrap for December 9
Erratic flows across Markets yet again as the countdown to the FOMC decision goes on.
While US Stock Markets were snoozers today, but risk-asset enjoyers did get a volatility dose: Cryptos offered quite a strong session, with Bitcoin coming shy of $95,000 and Ethereum touching the $3,300 level before retreating lower.
The unambiguous winner of today’s session, however, is easily Silver, which broke its fresh $59 record to mark an intraday All-time High at $60.83 in an aggressive late-session move.
This price action is highly suggestive of a late session short squeeze, with some traders unfolding some awkward positions held too long ahead of the FOMC event – I have seen such moves before and have also been there myself.
The next key technical test for the metal will be tomorrow’s close: confirmation of a breakout relies on the metal closing tomorrow above $59.
The fundamental backdrop remains anchored but restrictive.
This morning’s JOLTS report delivered a beat which, while preserving the high odds for tomorrow’s rate cut (around 85%), has effectively taken some 2026 rate cuts.
The Eastern-Europe conflict headlines also intensified: President Trump renewed his menaces to Ukraine in a Politico interview released today, questioning Zelenskyy’s legitimacy due to postponed elections and asserting that Russia retains the “upper hand” in the conflict, while throwing shade at European leaders.
There hasn’t been much movement in the Euro but such words originally propulsed the Joint Currency to some extended-rallies earlier this year.
For those who missed, the RBA delivered a hawkish pause yesterday evening, holding their rates steady at 3.60%.
The central bank cited renewed upward pressures on inflation and did not rule out the possibility of future rate hikes in 2026, creating a stark divergence between US and Australian policy outlooks and sending AUD/USD to some 4-months highs.
Tomorrow should bring back significant volatility after a calm pre-FOMC period.
Still, traders will have to scramble to extract as much information as they can from the Powell speech at 14:30 tomorrow, as there will be nine more days (and seven sessions) until the emphatically essential NFP report on December 18th—the January NFP will release on January 9th as the BLS begins to recover its shutdown backlog.