Macro update
Fed cut lifts Wall Street initially:
US indices finished higher after a 25bp rate cut, with the Dow Jones up 1.05%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.67% and the Nasdaq 100 rising 0.33%, as investors took comfort in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) emphasis on labour-market weakness.
Powell’s tone bolsters easing expectations:
Although Powell avoided explicit guidance, he underscored downside risks to employment, prompting markets to continue pricing additional cuts in 2026 despite unchanged Fed projections.
Industrials outperform on GE Vernova strength:
GE Vernova jumped 15.6% on a strong 2026 revenue outlook driven by AI-related infrastructure demand, helping industrials lead gains within the S&P 500.
Oracle results dent sentiment:
After the close, Oracle’s weaker-than-expected revenue and profit outlook sent the stock down 11%, reigniting tech-bubble concerns and unwinding part of the Fed-driven optimism.
Europe and U.S. futures turn lower:
Oracle’s miss overshadowed the earlier rally, pulling global futures down, pressuring European tech, and contributing to a broader risk-off tone that also pushed bitcoin more than 2% lower.
SoftBank drags on the Nikkei:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell about 1% as SoftBank slid nearly 8%, mirroring Oracle’s drop and raising doubts about the Stargate data-centre project, while wider tech and banking names also retreated.
DAX 40 comes off resistance
The DAX 40 index – which on Wednesday hit a near one-month high at 24,187 – is seen retracing lower amid general risk-off sentiment.
While Wednesday’s 24,001 low holds, though, the short-term uptrend remains intact.
Failure there would likely engage the late November high at 23,884.
Short-term outlook: bullish while above 24,001
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 23,434 December low, targeting the 24,500 region