Markets remain highly volatile, as geopolitical risks continue to outweigh both fundamental factors and technical analysis. In such a tense geopolitical climate, even the most important macroeconomic data becomes less influential. For now, the priority is to remain cautious and treat the current environment as a high-risk zone.
Nevertheless, during the coming week of March 9–15, 2026, market participants will focus on the publication of key macroeconomic statistics from China, Japan, Germany, the UK, the US, and Canada.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: China’s CPI and Japan’s GDP figures.
- Tuesday: None scheduled.
- Wednesday: Germany’s CPI, Bank of England Inflation report hearings, and US CPI data.
- Thursday: Bank of England Governor’s speech and US PPI.
- Friday: Canada’s February labor market data, US annual GDP for Q4 (secondary estimate), US core PCE, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index.
- Key event of the week: US CPI data.
Monday, March 9
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter fiscal policy. Higher consumer inflation may cause yuan appreciation, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In January 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at +0.2% (+0.2% YoY), after +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in september, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in May, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in May, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi quotes, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, given that China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.
23:50 – JPY: Japan GDP for Q4 2025 (Final Estimate)
GDP is a measure of a country’s overall economic condition, which assesses the rate of growth or decline of a country’s economy. The Gross Domestic Product report, published by the Cabinet Office of Japan, represents the total value of all final goods and services produced by Japan over a certain period in monetary terms. A rising trend in GDP is seen as positive for the yen, while a low reading is seen as negative.
In Q3 2025 the country’s GDP stood at -0.7% (-2.6% YoY), after +0.5% (+2.1% YoY) in Q2 2025, 0% (-0.2% YoY) in Q1 2025, +0.6% (+2.2% YoY) in Q4 2024, +0.3% (+1.2% YoY) in Q3, +0.7% (2.9% YoY) in Q2, -0.5% (-1.8% YoY) in Q1 2024, 0.1% (+0.4% YoY) in Q4 2023, -0.8% (-3.2% YoY) in Q3, +1.0% (+4.2% YoY) in Q2, +1.0% (+4.0% YoY) in Q1 2023.
The forecast implies that Japan’s GDP declined in Q4 2025, which is negative for the yen. Readings that exceed expectations will undoubtedly bolster the yen and Japanese stock indices. Conversely, underperformance will exert pressure on them.
The preliminary estimate stood at +0.1% (+0.2% YoY).
Tuesday, March 10
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released. However, the ADP private sector employment report (average four-week change in employment) will be released at 12:15 GMT.
Typically, the ADP private sector employment report, which precedes the monthly official release from the US Department of Labor, has a significant impact on the markets and the US dollar. By contrast, the weekly ADP report covering the past four weeks tends to generate a more limited market reaction. Nevertheless, stronger-than-expected readings may support the dollar, while weaker figures could weigh on it. If the data comes in below forecasts, the market reaction may be negative, potentially leading to a decline in the dollar.
Wednesday, March 11
07:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate a slowdown in inflation in Germany, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the February reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
Expected after 08:00 – GBP: Inflation Report Hearing
The Bank of England Governor and members of its Monetary Policy Committee will speak to Parliament about the current state of the economy and its future outlook. During this address, volatility in the British pound may rise sharply. One of the main benchmarks for the Bank of England regarding the UK monetary policy outlook, apart from GDP, is the inflation rate. If the tone of the report is soft, the UK stock market will be supported, and the pound will decline. Conversely, the hawkish tone of the Bank of England officials regarding curbing inflation, implying an interest rate hike, will lead to the strengthening of the pound.
12:30 – USD: US Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
- CPI: +2.4% in January 2026, +2.7% in December 2025, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2,5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1% +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;
- Core CPI: +2.5% in January 2026, +2.6% in December 2025, +2.6%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The figures indicate that inflation is decreasing inconsistently, picking up again in some months. Previous data suggest a slower decline than the Fed had expected. However, the current rate is well below the June 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1%. US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high or take a pause to assess the economic and labor market situation if the reduction occurs.
If the numbers surpass expectations and previous readings, the greenback will strengthen, as this scenario would heighten the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer or resume its cycle of monetary policy tightening.
Thursday, March 12
09:30 – GBP: Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey’s Speech
Market participants are waiting for Andrew Bailey to clarify the future policy of the UK central bank. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Andrew Bailey will likely explain the Bank of England’s interest rate decision and discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation. If Bailey does not address monetary policy issues, the reaction to his speech will be subdued.
12:30 – USD: Producer Price Index (PPI)
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change in wholesale prices determined by manufacturers at all stages of production. The index is one of the leading inflation indicators in the United States, estimating the average change in wholesale producer prices.
Rising production costs increase wholesale selling prices, which ultimately boosts inflation. In normal economic conditions, growing inflation usually puts upward pressure on the national currency quotes, implying a tighter central bank monetary policy.
Previous values: +0.5% (+2.9% YoY) in January 2026, +0.5% (+3.0% YoY) in December 2025, +0.2% (+3.0% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.7% (+3.1% YoY), 0% (+2.4% YoY), +0.4% (+2.7% YoY), -0.2% (+2.4% YoY), -0.2% (+3.2% YoY), 0.1% (+3.4% YoY), +0.7% (+3.8% YoY) in January 2025.
If the data exceeds the forecasted value, the US dollar will likely strengthen. Conversely, if the data falls below forecasted and previous values, this will exert pressure on the Fed. This could lead to the Fed’s monetary policy easing, which will negatively impact the US dollar.
Friday, March 13
12:30 – CAD: Canadian Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s February labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In January 2026, unemployment stood at 6.5% against 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q4 (Secondary Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q3 2025, GDP posted +4.4%, after +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q4 2025, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The preliminary estimate stood at +1.4%.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +3.0% in January 2026, +2.8% in December 2025, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.7% in January 2025, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.8% +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +3.1% in January 2024, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% in January 2022.
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 56.6, in January 2026, 52.9 in December 2025, 51.0 in November, 53.6 in October, 55.1 in September, 58.2 in August, 61.7 in July, 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in Fabruary, 71.1 in January, 74.0 in December, 71.8 in November, 70.5 in October, 70.1 in September, 67.9 in August, 66.4 in July, 68.2 in June, 69.1 in May, 77.2 in April, 79.4 in March, 76.9 in February, 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63,5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
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