The much-anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls report came and went without much impact to the markets. With job growth largely in line with forecasts, the data signaled a stable labor market and the balanced outcome offers little guidance to Fed policymakers, who will continue weighing inflation trends, fiscal uncertainties, and global trade risks before committing to any policy shift. Investors, for their part, appear content to sit on the sidelines until more definitive signals emerge, resulting in subdued market reactions.
In contrast, Canadian dollar faltered after domestic employment data revealed a near standstill in job growth. Despite a short-lived uplift from fresh tariff exemptions, Loonie found itself on the back foot again, as stagnant employment reignited concerns over economic momentum. Whether the currency will face further downward pressure in the final trading hours of the week may depend heavily on broader risk sentiment, which has already pushed Australian and New Zealand Dollars lower.
Meanwhile, European majors are holding their ground, with Euro on track to end the week as the best performer. Sterling and Swiss Franc also remain well-supported, benefiting from the rally tied to Europe’s sweeping fiscal and defence initiatives.
In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is down -0.25%. DAX is down -1.79%. CAC is down -1.19%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.053 at 4.569. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.046 at 2.789. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -2.17%. Hong Kong HSI fell -0.57%. China Shanghai SSE fell -0.25%. Singapore Strait Times fell -0.07%. Japan 10-year JGB yield rose 0.012 to 1.524.
US NFP rises 151k in Feb, slightly below expectations
US non-farm payroll employment increased by 151k in February, just slightly below expectations of 156k, and broadly in line with the 12-month average of 168k.
Unemployment rate edged up from 4.0% to 4.1%. Unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0% to 4.2% since May 2024. Labor force participation rate slipped from 62.6% to 62.4%.
Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% mom, in line with forecasts, while the average workweek remained unchanged at 34.1 hours.
Canada’s job growth stalls, unemployment rate steady at 6.6%
Canada’s labor market was stagnant in February, with employment rising by just 1.1k, falling far short of the expected 17.8k increase.
Unemployment rate held steady at 6.6%, better than expectation of 6.7%, while the labor force participation rate dropped from 65.5% to 65.3%, marking its first decline since September 2024. A notable contraction was seen in total hours worked, which fell by -1.3% mom.
Despite the weak employment figures, wage growth accelerated, with average hourly wages rising 3.8% yoy, up from January’s 3.5% gain.
China’s exports rise 2.3% yoy, imports fall -8.4% yoy
China’s exports rose just 2.3% yoy to USD 539.9B in the January–February period, coming in below forecasts of 5.0% yoy and down sharply from December’s 10.7% yoy.
Meanwhile, imports sank -8.4% yoy to USD 369.4B, missing expectations of 1.0% yoy growth and marking a noticeable drop from December’s 1.0% yoy.
As a result, trade balance resulted in USD 170.5B surplus exceeding projections of USD 147.5B.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0749; (P) 1.0801; (R1) 1.0837; More…
EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0176 resumed after brief retreat, and intraday bias is back on the upside for 161.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.0531 from 1.0358 at 1.0932 next. On the downside, below 1.0764 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside of retreat should be contained above 55 4H EMA (now at 1.0613) to bring another rally.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 55 W EMA (now at 1.0668) suggests that fall from 1.1274 (2024 high) has completed as a three wave correction to 1.0176. That came after drawing support from 0.9534 (2022 low) to 1.1274 at 1.0199. Rise from 0.9534 is still intact, and might be ready to resume through 1.1274. This will now be the favored case as long as 1.0531 resistance turned support holds.
