Macro update
Oil eases on ceasefire signals:
Brent slipped around 1% intraday before stabilising as reports indicated Trump may be open to ending the Iran campaign, though prices remain elevated above $110.
Supply risks still dominate:
Even with signs of de-escalation, a swift restoration of flows through the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely, keeping the market tight and limiting downside for crude.
Geopolitical disruptions intensify:
An Iranian-linked tanker attack in Dubai and Houthi missile strikes underscore growing threats to key shipping routes, including Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Record monthly oil surge:
Brent is up roughly 59% in March, marking its strongest monthly gain on record amid significant supply disruption and rerouted flows.
US equities under pressure:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined as war risks and higher oil prices weighed on sentiment, with technology stocks leading losses.
Asia markets follow global weakness:
Japan’s Nikkei is on track for an 11% monthly drop, its worst since 2010, as semiconductor losses and geopolitical uncertainty dampen risk appetite.
Dow Jones stays within downtrend channel
The Dow Jones Industrial Average found support around last week’s low at 45,057 on Monday 30 March but remains below its key 45,369-to-45,729 resistance area. This resistance area needs to be overcome for a break out of the February-to-March downtrend channel at 46,005 to become feasible.
Were such a bullish reversal to take shape, the 46,500-to-46,750 region may be reached.
As long as the index remains within its downtrend channel, the risk remains that the March low at 45,057 may still give way. If so, the early September 2025 low at 44,948 may represent the next downside target, ahead of the early July 2025 high at 44,885.
Short-term outlook:
Neutral with a bullish stance while above the 31 March 45,057 low, failure there would turn the forecast bearish, though
Medium-term outlook:
Neutral while above the 31 March 45,057 low, failure there would change the view to a bearish one