Conflict in the Middle East, surging energy prices, and mounting risks of stagflation are dominating the news and steering financial markets.
Volatility continues to roil the markets. The second half of the coming week also promises to be extremely turbulent, particularly during the release of unexpected news regarding geopolitical events and the publication of key macroeconomic data from the US. The publication of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, the US PCE index on Thursday, and the CPI data on Friday will be especially noteworthy.
In addition, during the coming week of April 6–12, 2026, market participants will watch for the release of key macroeconomic data from the Eurozone, the US, China, Germany, and Canada, and for the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index.
- Tuesday: None scheduled.
- Wednesday: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting and interest rate decision, Eurozone retail sales, FOMC minutes from the March meeting.
- Thursday: US Personal Consumption Expenditures index.
- Friday: China’s CPI, Germany’s CPI, Canada’s labor market data, US CPI, and the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index.
- Key event of the week: US PCE and CPI data releases.
Monday, April 6
Banks in some countries will be closed due to Easter Monday, a Catholic holiday. As a result, trading volumes are expected to be lower. Stock exchanges in those countries, including London and Hong Kong, will be closed.
14:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Tuesday, April 7
There are no important macroeconomic statistics scheduled to be released.
Wednesday, April 8
02:00 – NZD: Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Interest Rate Decision. RBNZ Monetary Policy Review
Previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) indicated that the economy no longer required the same level of monetary stimulus. Afterward, the bank decided to ease the monetary policy in August 2024, reducing the official cash rate by 0.25% to 5.25%. Prior to this change, the RBNZ maintained a pause for eight consecutive meetings. In October and November, the rate was cut again by 0.50% each time. In 2025, the RBNZ continued its policy easing cycle, reducing the interest rate to the current level of 2.25%.
The New Zealand currency faced significant pressure after the RBNZ opted to cut the interest rate. The accompanying statement revealed that the decision was made given expectations of a further drop in inflation, which is gradually returning to the target range of 1.0%–3.0%. Inflation expectations have also decreased.
However, the situation in the world, and New Zealand’s economy in particular, has changed dramatically due to the war in the Middle East. The surge in oil and gas prices in countries critically dependent on energy imports has accelerated inflation. Therefore, at the upcoming meeting, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may decide to raise interest rates. However, the bank may also take a pause and maintain the current monetary policy parameters.
Market participants monitoring the New Zealand dollar’s performance should be prepared for a notable uptick in volatility during this time.
In the Monetary Policy Review and commentary, the RBNZ officials will explain the interest rate decision and the economic factors that influenced it.
09:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures: -0.1% (+2.0% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+1.8%YoY) in December 2025, 0% (+2.6% YoY), +0.4% (+2.1% YoY), +0.3% (+1.4% YoY), -0.1% (+1.8%YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.5% (+3.8% YoY), -0.2% (+2.3%YoY), +0.5% (+3.0% YoY), -0.2% (+2.3% YoY) in January 2025.
18:00 – USD: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
The FOMC minutes release is extremely important for determining the course of the Fed’s current policy and the prospects for US interest rate hikes. Volatility in financial markets usually increases during the minutes’ publication, as they often reveal changes or provide clarifications from the latest FOMC meeting.
Following the meetings in the first half of 2025, the Fed’s interest rate remained at 4.50%. In September, it was reduced by 0.25% for the first time in 2025. In October, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%.
At its first meeting of 2026, the US Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged. Speaking at the press conference after the March meeting, where rates were once again held steady, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that rising energy prices could push inflation higher in the short term, while inflation expectations have increased amid the ongoing war. He also indicated that if the disinflation process were to stall, the Fed would be unlikely to move forward with rate cuts, effectively signaling that a near-term policy easing is not expected.
Now, investors do not project even a single rate cut by the end of the year.
Market participants expect the published minutes to provide some clarity on this issue.
The dovish tone of the minutes will positively impact stock indices and negatively affect the US dollar. The hawkish Fed’s rhetoric on monetary policy may boost the greenback.
Thursday, April 9
12:30 – USD: US GDP Annual Growth Rate for Q4 (Final Estimate). Personal Consumption Expenditures (Core PCE Price Index)
The GDP data is one of the key indicators, along with labor market and inflation data, for the US Fed in terms of its monetary policy. A positive indicator reading strengthens the US dollar, while a weak GDP report is harmful for the currency. In Q3 2025, GDP posted +4.4%, after +3.8% in Q2, -0.6% in Q1, +1.9% in Q4 2024, +3.3% in Q3, +3.6% in Q2, +0.8% in Q1 2024, +3.4% in Q4 2023.
If the data indicate a decline in GDP in Q4 2025, the US dollar will face significant pressure. Conversely, positive GDP figures will bolster the greenback and US stock indices.
The preliminary estimate stood at +1.4%, and the second one was at +0.7%.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data reflect the average amount of money consumers spend per month on durable goods, consumer goods, and services. The core PCE price index excludes food and energy prices. The annual core PCE is the main inflation gauge used by the US Fed as the primary inflation indicator.
The inflation rate, along with the labor market and GDP data, is crucial for the Fed in determining its monetary policy. Growing prices exert pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy and raise interest rates.
The PCE data above the forecasted and/or previous values may boost the US dollar, while a decline in the reading will likely exert a negative impact on the greenback.
Previous values YoY: +3.1 in January 2026, +3.0% in December 2025, +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.8%, +2.9%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +2.7% in January 2025, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.8% +2.8%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.7%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +3.1% in January 2024, +2.9%, +3.2%, +3.5%, +3.7%, +3.8%, +4.3%, +4.3% +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.7%, +4.6%, +4.8%, +5.1%, +5.2%, +4.9%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +4.7%, +4.9%, +5.2%, +5.3%, +5.2% in January 2022.
Friday, April 10
01:30 – CNY: China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The National Bureau of Statistics of China will release its fresh monthly data on consumer prices. The growth of consumer prices may trigger the acceleration of inflation, prompting the People’s Bank of China to implement a tighter fiscal policy. Higher consumer inflation may cause yuan appreciation, while a low result may exert pressure on the currency.
Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, the publication of its significant macroeconomic data has a notable impact on the global financial markets. This influence extends particularly to the yuan, other Asian currencies, the US dollar, and commodity currencies. Moreover, China serves as the largest buyer of commodities and supplier of a wide range of finished goods to the global commodity market.
In January 2026, the consumer inflation index value stood at +1.0% (+1.3% YoY) after +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in January 2026, after +0.2% (+0.8% YoY) in December 2025, -0.1% (+0.7%) in November, +0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in October, +0.1% (-0.3% YoY) in september, 0% (-0.4% YoY) in August, +0.4% (0% YoY) in July, +0.1% (+0.1% YoY) in June, -0.2% (-0.1% YoY) in May, +0.1% (-0.1% YoY) in April, -0.2% (-0.7% YoY) in February, +0.7% (+0.5% YoY) in January 2025, -0.6% (+0.2% YoY) in November 2024, -0.3% (+0.3% YoY) in October, 0% (+0.4% YoY) in September, +0.5% (+0.5% YoY) in July 2024, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY) in June, -0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in May, +0.1% (+0.3% YoY) in April, +0.1% (-2.7% YoY) in December 2023, -0.5% (-0.5% YoY) in November, +0.2% (0% YoY) in September, +0.3% (+0.1% YoY) in July, -0.2% (0% YoY) in June, -0.2% (0% YoY) in May, -0.2% (+0.2% YoY).
The increase in the consumer inflation index will positively affect the renminbi quotes, as well as commodity currencies. Conversely, if the data is worse than forecasted and there is a relative decline in the CPI, it may adversely affect the currencies, particularly the Australian dollar, given that China is Australia’s largest trade and economic partner.
06:00 – EUR: German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (Final Estimate)
The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by the European Statistics Office and is calculated using a methodology agreed upon by all EU countries. The HICP is an indicator for measuring inflation and is used by the European Central Bank to assess price stability. A positive index result strengthens the euro, while a negative one weakens it.
Previous values YoY: +2.0%, +2.1% in January 2026, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.1%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.1%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.6%, +2.8% in January 2025, +2.6%, +2.8% in December 2024, +2.4%, +2.4%, +1.8%, +2.0%, +2.6%, +2.5%, +2.8%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.7%, +3.1% in January 2024, +3.8% in December, +2.3% in November, +3.0% in October, +4.3% in September, +6.4% in August, +6.5% in July, +6.8% in June, +6.3% in May, +7.6% in April, +7.8% in March, +9.3% in February, +9,2% in January, +9.6% in December, +11.3% in November, +11.6% in October, +10.9% in September, +8.8% in August, +8.5% in July, +8.2% in June, +8.7% in May, +7.8% in April, +7.6% in March, +5.5% in February, +5.1% in January 2022.
The data indicate that inflation remains high and even accelerates periodically, which, in turn, is forcing the ECB to ease its monetary policy, especially given the risks of recession in the Eurozone.
If the index value turns out to be lower than the previous one, the euro may weaken. Conversely, if inflation resumes rising, the euro may strengthen. An increase in the index is a positive factor for the euro.
If the March reading proves higher than the previous one, the euro may appreciate in the short term.
The preliminary estimate stood at +2.8%.
12:30 – CAD: Canadian Unemployment Rate
Statistics Canada will release the country’s February labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In February 2026, unemployment stood at 6.7% against 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
12:30 – USD: US Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a given period. It is a key indicator for assessing inflation trends and changes in consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from the Core CPI to provide a more accurate assessment.
A high index reading typically strengthens the US dollar by signaling an increased likelihood of the Fed interest rate hike, while a low reading generally weakens the currency.
Previous values YoY:
- CPI: +2.4% in February and January 2026, +2.7% in December 2025, +2.7%, +3.0%, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.7%, +2.4%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.8%, +3.0% in January 2025, +2.9%, +2.7%, +2.6%, +2.4%, +2,5%, +2.9%, +3.0%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.5%, +3.2%, +3.1%, +3.4%, +3.1% +3.2%, +3.7%, +3.7%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +4.0%, +4.9%, +5.0%, +6.0%, +6.4% in January 2023;
- Core CPI: +2.5% in February and January 2026, +2.6% in December 2025, +2.6%, +3.0%, +3.1%, +3.1%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +2.8%, +3.1%, +3.3% in January 2025, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.3%, +3.2%, +3.2%, +3.3%, +3.4%, +3.6%, +3.8%, +3.8%, +3.9%, +3.9%, +4.0%, +4.0%, +4.1%, +4.3%, +4.7%, +4.8%, +5.3%, +5.5%, +5.6%, +5.5%, +5.6% in January 2023.
The figures indicate that inflation is decreasing inconsistently, picking up again in some months. Previous data suggest a slower decline than the Fed had expected. However, the current rate is well below the June 2022 level, when annual inflation in the US reached a 40-year high of 9.1%. US inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, forcing the central bank to keep interest rates high or take a pause to assess the economic and labor market situation if the reduction occurs.
If the numbers surpass expectations and previous readings, the greenback will strengthen, as this scenario would heighten the chances that the Fed will keep interest rates elevated for longer or resume its cycle of monetary policy tightening.
14:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 53.3, 56.6, in January 2026, 52.9 in December 2025, 51.0 in November, 53.6 in October, 55.1 in September, 58.2 in August, 61.7 in July, 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in Fabruary, 71.1 in January, 74.0 in December, 71.8 in November, 70.5 in October, 70.1 in September, 67.9 in August, 66.4 in July, 68.2 in June, 69.1 in May, 77.2 in April, 79.4 in March, 76.9 in February, 79.0 in January 2024, 69.7 in December 2023, 61.3 in November, 63.8 in October, 68.1 in September, 69.5 in August, 71.6 in July, 64.4 in June, 59.2 in May, 63,5 in April, 62.0 in March, 67.0 in February, 64.9 in January 2023, 59.7 in December, 56.8 in November, 59.9 in October, 58.6 in September, 58.2 in August, 51.5 in July, 50.0 in June, 58.4 in May, 65.2 in April, 59.4 in March, 62.8 in February, 67.2 in January 2022. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data shows that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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