Macro update
Oil drops sharply on ceasefire news: Brent fell below $100 to around $91, while WTI slipped to the mid-$90s after Trump agreed a two-week ceasefire with Iran linked to reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Strait reopening eases supply fears: Iran indicated it would permit limited, safe transit through Hormuz – responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flows – conditional on a pause in attacks.
Risk assets rally on relief: Equities surged globally, with S&P 500 futures up around 2.5%, European futures jumping more than 5%, and Asian markets gaining between 4% and 6%.
Safe havens unwind but gold rises: The dollar weakened and bond yields declined as risk sentiment improved, though gold still advanced towards a three-week high near $4,800 amid ongoing uncertainty.
Geopolitical premium remains embedded: Analysts cautioned that oil markets may continue to reflect elevated risk given the fragile nature of the ceasefire and potential for renewed disruption.
Focus shifts to durability of peace: Investors remain cautious over whether the two-week pause and Iran’s framework can lead to a lasting agreement, with central banks still watching inflation risks from recent energy shocks.
Nasdaq 100 rallies 3.3%
The Nasdaq 100 is in the process of seeing one of its strongest daily rallies since May 2025 and is expected to trade in one-month highs when it opens in the US.
In the short-term the early March highs at 25,152-to-25,189 are likely to cap the advance on Wednesday, though. If not, the 25 February high at 25,344 would be next in line.
The breached January-to-April downtrend line, now because of inverse polarity a support line, and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,494-to-24,473 would be expected to act as support if a retracement were to be seen this week.
Short-term outlook: bullish, targeting the early March highs at 25,152-to-25,189 while above the 200-day SMA at 24,473
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 7 April low at 23,780