- Prior month -$308 billion
- Federal budget deficit $164 billion versus $156.75 billion estimate. A year ago, the deficit was $161 billion
Details:
- Fiscal 2026 year-to-date deficit $1.169 trillion versus $1.307 trillion in 2025. Down 11% YoY
- March Net customs receipts and $22.16 billion
- Budget outlays $549 billion versus $528 billion in March 2025
- Receipt $385 billion, record for month of March, versus $368 billion in March 2025.
- Corporate refunds up 77%
- individual refunds up 9%
- Defense spending 3% higher compared to one year ago
Some additional looks:
- War-related outlays, such as for replenishing weapons inventories, would come in later months.
- Customs duty collections softened in the month following the U.S. Supreme Court’s annulment of President Donald Trump’s broadest global tariffs imposed under an emergency law.
- Customs receipts totaled $22.2 billion in March, down from $26.6 billion in February and monthly totals in the low $30 billion range late last year, but up from $8.2 billion in March 2025.
- After accounting for calendar-related adjustments of benefit payments, the March deficit would have been $250 billion, up $9 billion or 4% from March 2025.
This also out, Trump plans to request $98 billion in supplemental funds for Iran war and more.
Earlier reports indicating the Pentagon has discussed a request of over $200 billion tied to war-related operations. However, President Donald Trump has not formally submitted that request to Congress, leaving uncertainty around the final size and timing.
Earlier expectations had been closer to $50 billion, but escalating costs—estimated at over $11 billion in just the first week—have raised the potential price tag significantly. This may be that number.
The lack of a formal request keeps markets in a wait-and-see mode, particularly as fiscal implications could influence yields, risk sentiment, and the USD.