Macro update
Oil surge: Brent crude climbed over 3% to roughly $91 a barrel, with WTI near $88, as renewed US-Iran tensions reignited supply concerns following last week’s sharp sell-off.
Hormuz disruption: Shipping through the strait remains heavily constrained despite brief reopening signals, with around 10–11 million barrels per day still offline and tanker operators cautious over renewed attacks.
Geopolitical escalation: The US seizure of an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend triggered retaliation threats from Tehran, casting doubt on the durability of the ceasefire.
Talks stall: Iran rejected plans for a second round of negotiations ahead of the ceasefire deadline, undermining confidence in a near-term diplomatic resolution.
Risk sentiment mixed: US and European equity futures declined while Asian markets advanced, indicating expectations of an eventual deal despite near-term tensions.
Safe-haven bid: The dollar strengthened to a one-week high and bond yields edged higher, as oil-driven inflation concerns re-emerged as the key macro transmission channel.