The longer-term price movement of copper is highly sensitive to manufacturing activities, as it is a vital component in the global manufacturing supply chains and industrial usage. Higher manufacturing activities tend to translate to a higher demand for copper, in turn, creating a positive feedback loop into the price of copper.
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data compiled by S&P Global can be used as a leading indicator to gauge manufacturing activities.
Despite the rising risk of stagflation in the past six weeks since the start of the US-Iran war on 28 February 2026, on the aggregate, global manufacturing activities were still growing at a modest pace in March 2026.
The PMI Diffusion Index measures the proportion of countries whose manufacturing PMI is above or equal to 50 (an indication of expansion in activities), where it stood at 72.3% in March 2026, just down slightly from 74.5% in April 2026 (see Fig. 2).
Hence, there are still more than 50% of global economies’ manufacturing sectors in expansion modes, in turn, providing long-term bullish support for copper prices.
On Thursday, 23 April 2026, S&P Global will release flash PMI data for a slew of developed economies (Australia, Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US). Therefore, a continuation of the expansion pace seen in these economies’ manufacturing PMIs is likely to maintain the ongoing short-term bullish trend of copper (XCU/USD).
Let’s now focus on the short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days) of copper (XCU/USD) and its supporting elements from a technical analysis perspective.