Macro update
Asian equities reverse from highs: Shares in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan initially reached fresh highs before turning lower, with MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan down 0.5% and the Nikkei falling 0.9% as risk sentiment weakened.
Oil-driven pullback: Brent crude rose around to $100 per barrel, extending gains as renewed disruption in the Strait of Hormuz lifted energy prices.
Geopolitics intensify: Iran seized two vessels in the strait while both Tehran and Washington maintained shipping restrictions, leaving roughly 20% of global oil flows constrained and peace talks stalled.
Wall Street resilience: US indices closed at record highs overnight, with the S&P 500 up 1% and the Nasdaq gaining 1.6%, supported by strong early earnings despite rising energy costs.
Rates and FX: Treasury yields edged higher alongside oil, while the dollar held near a one-and-a-half-week high on safe-haven demand, with the euro steady near recent lows.
Policy outlook and commodities: Higher oil prices are reinforcing inflation concerns and pushing back expectations for Fed rate cuts, while gold fell 0.7% as rising yields reduced its appeal.
DAX 40 is gliding lower
The DAX 40 is seen sliding back towards its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,117 and its 10 March high at 24,061.
Immediate minor resistance may be spotted around the late January 24,266 low and the 5 February 24,273 trough. If overcome, the 5 March high at 24,366 may be revisited ahead of the 21 April high at 24,607.
Short-term outlook: bearish while below the 21 April 24,607 high
Medium-term outlook: bullish while above the 13 April low at 23,482