The “imminent Iran peace deal” narrative collapsed violently across markets today. Just days ago, traders were aggressively pricing a rapid diplomatic breakthrough that would fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, crush oil prices, and ease global inflation fears. That optimism has now evaporated. Fresh U.S. strikes, renewed regional military threats, and rising skepticism toward the negotiations triggered a sharp reversal across markets, with oil and Dollar surging together while Gold and Silver plunged under heavy liquidation pressure.
The turning point came after US President Donald Trump then poured further cold water on the diplomatic narrative by saying he was “not satisfied” with the current trajectory of talks. Then there were reports that U.S. forces launched fresh overnight strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure following drone threats around Hormuz.
More importantly, Kuwait’s activation of air defenses against incoming missile and drone threats shattered the market’s assumption that the conflict was becoming geographically contained. Traders are now being forced to confront the possibility that the crisis is again spreading into a broader Gulf regional flashpoint involving critical U.S.-aligned infrastructure.
The key macro shift is that markets are once again repricing inflation shock risk rather than geopolitical de-escalation. Brent oil’s rebound above $95 is feeding directly into expectations for higher inflation, firmer Treasury yields, and renewed Dollar strength. That combination is once again proving particularly toxic for non-yielding precious metals.
Technically, Gold’s earlier recovery attempt stalled at 4,580.33 after rejection by 55 4H EMA, and the subsequent break below 4,453.47 suggests downside momentum is accelerating again.
Risk will now stay on the downside as long as 4,580.33 resistance holds. Sustained trading below 61.8% retracement of 4,098.45 to 4,889.24 at 4,400.53 could trigger downside acceleration to retest 4,098.45, or in short, 4,000 major psychological level.
Silver’s technical picture is similarly fragile after its rebound from 73.08 failed at 55 4H EMA, resuming the broader decline from 89.37. The metal is now approaching the crucial 70 psychological zone, which could still attract structural dip-buying because of Silver’s heavy industrial exposure to green technology and electronics demand.
But if the combination of rising oil, stronger Dollar, and higher yields forces Silver decisively below 70 (with 61.8% retracement of 70.97 to 89.37 at 71.81), liquidation pressure could intensify rapidly as stop-loss selling accelerates toward the next major support zone around around 60.97, or even the 60 psychological level.
