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Australia’s 10-year government bond yield slipped below 4.9%, pulling back from a more than two-week high as risk-off sentiment strengthened amid escalating geopolitical tensions and diminished expectations for further domestic policy tightening. A recent run of weaker economic data has led investors to rule out another rate hike at the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting next week, with the effects of three increases earlier this year now flowing through the economy.
Economists have also pared back expectations for a move in August and now see the cash rate peaking at 4.35%. Even so, Governor Michele Bullock reiterated last week that the central bank remains firmly committed to returning inflation to its target band. The May CPI release on June 24 will be closely watched for clearer evidence of price pressures feeding through, following a softer reading in April.
At the same time, ongoing hostilities in the Middle East weighed on sentiment, as the United States launched new strikes on Iran, casting doubt on the prospects for a durable peace agreement and raising the risk of a prolonged closure of the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.