Can Ether stabilise after the pullback?
The immediate challenge for Ether is to establish whether the decline from September’s high is a correction within a broader recovery or the start of a more prolonged period of weakness.
A sustained improvement in ETF flows would provide an encouraging signal, particularly if it coincided with easing Treasury yields, lower oil prices and a softer US dollar. A return to consistent net inflows could help restore a source of demand that supported Ether during September’s advance.
For now, the latest positive ETF session offers only limited reassurance. Investors will need to see whether inflows persist over several trading days and whether Ether can recover ground lost during the early-October sell-off.
The price reaction around the $2,355 early September low is also important. A sustained recovery from above this level could help stabilise sentiment. Conversely, a failure to hold near recent lows, alongside continued ETF withdrawals and elevated yields, would leave Ether vulnerable to further selling.
The outlook is therefore finely balanced. Ether retains substantial cumulative ETF inflows since the funds launched, but the sharp reversal in recent flows has exposed the cryptocurrency to a combination of weaker investment demand, macroeconomic uncertainty and leveraged liquidations. Until those pressures ease, a sustained return towards the September high near $2,800 may prove difficult.
Ether’s bullish scenario
Even though Ether has so far briefly slid through its $2,356.45-to-$2,354.82 September lows it is trying to recover from this area. While no weekly chart close (on Friday) below this area is made, a rise and daily chart close above its 12 October high at $2,576.70 may still unfold. If so, the 11 September peak at $2,666.15 would likely be back in focus. If overcome, the September high at $2,805.98 may be revisited and, if bettered, the $3,000-to-$3,050 region may be reached too.
A sustained break above $3,050 could then bring the $3,356.65-to-$3,447.14 area into focus, although this would require another significant extension of the current rally.
Ether’s bearish scenario
The main risk is that the September lows at $2,356.45-to-$2,354.82 give way on a weekly chart closing basis in which case a more significant descent towards the late April low at $2,220.22 and the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,200.53 may ensue.