Last week brought a flurry of major events and announcements, including policy meetings at five of the world’s leading central banks.
This week (November 2–8, 2026), attention turns to the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England as they announce their interest rate decisions.
Market participants will also assess key economic data from China, Germany, the US, the Eurozone, Switzerland, New Zealand, Australia, and Canada, alongside the results of the US midterm elections.
With so many major events on the calendar, markets could be just as volatile as they were last week.
The main focus will be Friday’s US jobs report for October.
Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Monday: China’s manufacturing PMI, German retail sales, and the US ISM manufacturing PMI.
- Tuesday: US midterm elections, the RBA interest rate decision, Swiss CPI, and New Zealand employment data.
- Wednesday: China’s services PMI, eurozone CPI, the US ADP employment report, and the US ISM services PMI.
- Thursday: Australia’s trade balance and the Bank of England interest rate decision.
- Friday: Eurozone retail sales, Canadian employment data, the US jobs report, and the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Monday, November 2
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Manufacturing PMI
The RatingDog Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s manufacturing sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 52.1, 51.5, 50.9, 51.7, 51.8, 52.2, 52.1, 50.1 in December 2025, 49.9, 50.6, 51.2 in September 2025.
A decline in the indicator value and a reading below 50 may negatively affect the renminbi, as well as commodity currencies such as the New Zealand and Australian dollar. Data that exceeds forecasted or previous values will have a positive impact on these currencies.
07:00 – EUR: German Retail Sales
Retail sales are the main indicator of consumer spending in Germany. A high indicator reading boosts the euro, while a low one weakens the currency.
Previous figures: -3.4% (-2.5% YoY), 0% (+0.6% YoY), +1.2% (+2.1% YoY), -0.4% (-0.6% YoY), -0.1% (-2.7% YoY), -0.4% (+0.9% YoY), -1.1% (+1.1% YoY) in January 2026, +1.7% (+4.9% YoY) in December 2025.
The data suggests that the German economy’s recovery has been uneven, with some months experiencing a slowdown. Indicator readings higher than forecasted and/or previous values are likely positive for the euro in the short term.
15:00 – USD: US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index
The US PMI, published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), is an important measure of the US economy. When the index surpasses 50, it bolsters the US dollar, whereas readings below 50 have a detrimental effect on the greenback.
Previous values: 54.5, 54.6, 55.6, 53.3, 54.0, 52.7, 52.7, 52.4, 52.6 in January 2026, 47.9 in December 2025, 48.0, 48.8, 48.9, 48.9, 48.4, 49.0, 48.6, 48.8, 48.9, 50.0, 50.9 in January 2025, 49.2 in December 2024.
The growth of index values supports the US dollar. Conversely, if the index reading falls below the forecasted values or below 50, the greenback may sharply depreciate in the short term.
Tuesday, November 3
03:30 – AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia’s Interest Rate Decision. RBA Accompanying Statement
The Australian economy’s primary challenges include sluggish wage growth, a weak labor market, and a slowdown in growth rates.
Following its February 2026 meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the rate by 0.25%, for the first time since December 2025. At its September meeting, the bank lifted the rate to 4.60%, the highest level in 15 years.
Despite the September interest rate hike and comments from RBA Governor Michele Bullock suggesting further monetary tightening, the Australian dollar weakened, and the AUD/USD pair fell below 0.7000, reaching a new two-month low of 0.6945 by month-end.
The RBA’s statement highlighted upside risks to inflation from high energy prices, alongside signs of slowing economic growth. It also signaled that further monetary tightening might be needed to bring inflation back within the target range.
Bullock also reiterated that the RBA’s policy decisions would depend on the data. This leaves open the possibility that interest rates could stay high or rise further, supporting the Australian dollar.
The RBA may raise interest rates again at the upcoming meeting, given the sharp rise in energy prices, particularly oil, resulting from the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, causing inflation to accelerate.
In the accompanying statement, the RBA will explain the reasons for the rate decision. If the RBA signals the possibility of monetary easing in the near term, the risks of the Australian dollar depreciating will increase. Conversely, the hawkish rhetoric of the RBA’s accompanying statement may lead to a strengthening of the Australian dollar.
04:30 – AUD: RBA Press Conference
Michele Bullock will assess the current state of Australia’s economy and outline her department’s monetary policy plans. Market participants anticipate her insights on the central bank’s policies amid global recessionary trends and elevated inflation levels in Australia. Any signals regarding her plans to adjust the RBA’s monetary policy parameters will cause a volatility surge in the Australian currency and stock market.
07:30 – CHF: Switzerland Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. The CPI is a key gauge of inflation. Additionally, the index has a significant impact on the value of the Swiss franc.
In September 2026, consumer inflation posted 0% (+1.0%YoY), following +0.4% (+0.8% YoY), -0.1% (+0.4% YoY), 0% (+0.5% YoY), +0.2% (+0.6% YoY), +0.3% (+0.6% YoY), +0.2% (+0.3% YoY), +0.6% (+0.1% YoY), -0.1% (+0.1% YoY), and 0% (+0.1% YoY) in December 2025.
An index reading below the forecasted or previous value may weaken the Swiss franc, as low inflation will force the Swiss National Bank to ease its monetary policy. Conversely, a high reading would be positive for the Swiss franc.
21:45 – NZD: New Zealand Employment Change. Unemployment Rate for Q3
The employment change reflects the quarterly change in the number of employed New Zealand citizens. An increase in an indicator value positively affects consumer spending, thereby stimulating economic growth. A high indicator reading is favorable for the New Zealand dollar, while a low reading is negative.
Previous values: +0.5% in Q2, +0.2% in Q1 2026, +0.5% in Q4 2025, 0.0% in Q3 2025, -0.1% in Q2 2025, +0.1% in Q1 2025, -0.2% in Q4 2024, -0.6% in Q3, +0.1% in Q2, -0.4% in Q1 2024.
At the same time, Stats NZ publishes a report on the unemployment rate, an indicator that measures the proportion of unemployed individuals relative to the total number of working-age citizens. An increase in the indicator values signals a weakening labor market, leading to a slowdown in the national economy. Conversely, a decrease is viewed positively, often strengthening the value of the New Zealand dollar.
Previous values QoQ: 5.6% in Q2, 5.3% in Q1 2026, 5.4% in Q4 2025, 5.3% in Q3 2025, 5.2% in Q2 2025, 5.1% in Q1 2025 and Q4 2024, 4.9% in Q3, 4.7% in Q2, 4.4% in Q1 2024.
If other indicators in the Stats NZ report show signs of decline, the New Zealand dollar will likely weaken. Worse-than-expected data could have an even more pronounced negative effect on the currency.
Wednesday, November 4
01:45 – CNY: RatingDog China Services PMI
The RatingDog Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), released by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in China’s services sector. Since China is the world’s second-largest economy, its macroeconomic data releases can strongly influence financial markets.
Previous values: 51.6, 51.4, 50.1, 54.1, 54.4, 52.6, 52.1, 56.7, 52.3 in January 2026, 52.0 in December 2025, 52.6, 52.9 in September 2025.
Although an index value above 50 indicates growth, a relative decline in the indicator may adversely affect the yuan. Since China is the most important trade and economic partner of Australia and New Zealand, a deterioration in Chinese macro data may negatively impact the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Conversely, an increase in Chinese macro figures is usually positive for these currencies.
10:00 – EUR: Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Core HICP (Flash)
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is published by Eurostat and measures the change in prices of a selected basket of goods and services over a specific period. The index is a key indicator for assessing inflation and changes in consumer preferences. A positive reading strengthens the euro, while a negative reading weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +3.8%, +3.2%, +2.9%, +2.8%, +3.2%, +3.0%, +2.6%, +1.9%, +1.7% in January 2026, +2.0% in December 2025.
If the data is worse than the forecasted value, the euro may face a short-term but sharp decline. Conversely, if the data surpasses the forecast and/or the previous value, it could strengthen the euro in the short term. The ECB’s consumer inflation target is just below 2.0%, and the reading suggests that inflation continues to rise in the Eurozone.
The ECB is signaling that monetary policy is likely to be tightened, which is a bullish factor for the euro.
The Core Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (Core HICP) measures the price change of a selected basket of goods and services over a specified period and serves as a key indicator for assessing inflation and consumer preferences. Food and energy are excluded from this indicator in order to provide a more accurate assessment. A high result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it.
Previous figures YoY: +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.5%, +2.4%, +2.6%, +2.2%, +2.3%, +2.4%, +2.2% in January 2026, +2.3% in December 2025.
If the November 2026 figures are weaker than the previous or forecasted value, the euro may be negatively affected. If the data turns out to be better than the forecasted or previous value, the currency will likely grow.
According to recently reported data, the eurozone’s core inflation rate is still high, above the ECB’s target of 2.0%. As a result, the ECB is inclined to maintain high interest rates, which is favorable for the euro in normal economic conditions.
12:15 – USD: ADP Private Sector Employment Report
The ADP report on private sector employment significantly impacts the market and the US dollar. An increase in this indicator value positively affects the greenback. The number of workers in the US private sector is expected to increase in October after posting 90k in September, 36k in August 46k in July, 95k in June, 122k in May, +105k in April, +61k in March, +66k in February, +11k in January, +37k in December 2025, -29k in November, +47k in October, -29k in September, -3k in August, +106k in July, -23k in June, +29k in May, +60k in April, +147k in March, +84k in February, +186k in January 2025, +176k in December 2024,+146k in November, +184k in October, +159k in September, +103k in August, +111k in July, +155k in June, +157k in May, +188k in April, +208k in March, +155k in February, +111k in January 2024, +158k in December, +104k in November, +111k in October, +137k in September, +135k in August, +307k in July, +543k in June, +206k in May, +293k in April, +103k in March, +275k in February, +131k in January 2023.
The growth of the index values may positively affect the US dollar, while low index readings may adversely influence it. A negative market reaction and a potential decline in the dollar may occur if the data turns out to be worse than forecasted.
The ADP report is not directly correlated with the official data of the US Department of Labor, which is due on Friday. However, the ADP report often serves as a forerunner of the department’s data and significantly influences the market.
15:00 – USD: US ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index
The PMI assesses the state of the US services sector, accounting for about 80% of US GDP. The share of final goods production is about 20% of GDP, including 1% for agriculture and 18% for industrial production. Therefore, the publication of the services sector data significantly impacts the US dollar. An indicator reading above 50 is positive for the currency.
Previous readings: 54.9 in Septenber, 55.4 in August, 54.1 in July, 54.0 in June, 54.5 in May, 53.6 in April, 54.0 in March, 56.1 in February, 53.8 in January 2026 and December 2025, 52.4 in November, 52.0 in October, 50.3 in September, 51.9 in August, 50.5 in July, 50.8 in June, 50.2 in May, 51.6 in April, 50.8 in March, 53.2 in February, 52.8 in January 2025.
The growth of index values will favorably affect the US dollar. However, a relative decline in the index values and readings below 50 may negatively affect the US dollar in the short term.
Thursday, November 5
00:30 – AUD: Australian Balance of Trade
The balance of trade measures the difference between exports and imports. An increase in Australian exports leads to a larger trade surplus, positively affecting the Australian dollar. Previous figures (in billions of Australian dollars): +0.495 in August, +1.351 in July, +2.341 in June, -2.367 in May, 1.587 in April, -1.710 in March, 5.092 in February, 2.397 in January 2026, 3.467 in December 2025.
A decrease in the trade surplus could negatively affect the Australian dollar, while an increase in the indicator figure may bolster the currency.
12:00 – GBP: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision. Bank of England Meeting Minutes
Since the September 2023 meeting, the Bank of England has maintained a wait-and-see stance. Finally, on August 1, 2024, the central bank cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 5.00%, marking the first cut since August 2023. The current interest rate is 3.75%.
At the upcoming meeting, the Bank of England may either cut interest rates again, due to the challenging situation in the country’s labor market, or pause, or raise rates again, amid persistently high inflation.
More and more analysts believe that the BoE will raise interest rates. The market’s reaction to such a move will be completely unpredictable.
At the same time, the BoE will publish the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) minutes, including a breakdown of the votes for and against interest rate changes. The main UK risks after Brexit are related to expectations of a slowdown in the country’s economic growth, as well as a large deficit in the UK balance of payments account.
Uncertainty about the Bank of England’s next step persists. Meanwhile, the British Pound and FTSE 100 futures offer a lot of trading opportunities during the publication of the Bank’s rate decision.
12:30 – GBP: Bank of England Governor’s Speech
Andrew Bailey will comment on the Bank of England’s interest rate decision. Typically, during the speech of the Bank of England governor, the British pound and the FTSE index of the London Stock Exchange face a significant spike in volatility, especially if there are any indications regarding monetary policy tightening or easing. Besides, Andrew Bailey will likely discuss the UK economy’s health and prospects against the backdrop of high energy prices and inflation.
The British pound and the FTSE London Stock Exchange often show significant volatility during the Bank of England Governor’s speech, especially if he hints at changes in monetary policy.
Friday, November 6
10:00 – EUR: Eurozone Retail Sales
Retail sales data is the main measure of consumer spending, indicating the change in sales volume. A high indicator result strengthens the euro, while a low one weakens it. Values exceeding the forecast will also strengthen the euro.
Previous figures: +0.1% (+0.8% YoY), -0.6% (+0.4% YoY), -0.2% (+1.4% YoY), +0.4% (+1.9% YoY), -0.3% (+0.9% YoY), +0.8% (+2.1% YoY), -0.5% (+1.3% YoY), 0% (+2.2% YoY) in January 2026, +0.2% (+2.1% YoY) in December 2025.
13:30 – CAD: Canada’s Unemployment Rate. Employment Change
Statistics Canada will release the country’s September labor market data. Massive business closures due to the coronavirus and layoffs have also contributed to the unemployment rate, increasing from the usual 5.6–5.7% to 7.8% in March and 13.7% in May 2020.
In September 2026, unemployment stood at 6.4% against 6.4% in August and July, 6.5% in June, 6.6% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.7% in March and February, 6.5% in January 2026, 6.8% in December, 6.5% in November, 6.9% in October, 7.1% September and August, 6.9% in July and June, 7.0% in May, 6.9% in April, 6.6% in February and January 2025, 6.7% in December 2024, 6.8% in November, 6.5% in October and September, 6.6% in August, 6.4% in July and June, 6.2% in May, 6.1% in April and March, 5.8% in February, 5.7% in January 2024, 5.8% in December and November 2023, 5.7% in October, 5.5% in September, August, and July, 5.4% in June, 5.2% in May, 5.0% in April, March, February, January, December, 5.1% in November, 5.2% in October and September, 5.4% in August, 4.9% in July and June, 5.1% in May, 5.2% in April, 5.3% in March, 5.5% in February, 6.5% in January 2022.
If the unemployment rate continues to rise, the Canadian dollar will depreciate. If the data exceeds the previous value, the Canadian dollar will strengthen. A decrease in the unemployment rate is a positive factor for the Canadian dollar, while an increase is a negative factor.
The Statistics Canada report also includes data on employment change, which shows the change in the number of people employed in Canada. An increase in this indicator has a positive impact on consumer spending and signals economic growth. A high value is viewed as a bullish factor for the Canadian dollar (CAD), while a low value is considered bearish.
Previous values: -68.3 in September, -41.7 in August, +75.1 in July, +18.2 in June 2026.
13:30 – USD: Average Hourly Earnings. Nonfarm Payrolls. Unemployment Rate
The most significant US labor market indicators for October.
Previous values: +0.1% in Septenber, +0.3% in August, +0.2% in July, +0.3% in June and May, +0.2% in April and March, +0.4% in February and January 2026, +0.1% in December 2025 / 57,000 in June, 129,000 in May, 148,000 in April, 214,000 in March, -156,000 in February, 160,000 in January 2026, -17,000 in December 2025 / 4.2% in June, 4.3% in May, April, and March, 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January 2026, 4.4% in December 2025.
Overall, the data is broadly positive, except for the sharp drop in July nonfarm payrolls, which goes against expectations for growth, and downward revisions to the figures for April through June. However, it is often difficult to predict how the market will react because previous data may be revised. This is even more challenging now, as the economic outlook in the US and other major economies remains mixed, with risks of both recession and high inflation.
Regardless, the release of the US labor market data is anticipated to prompt increased volatility not just in the US dollar but also in the entire financial market. Most risk-averse investors will probably prefer to stay out of the market during this period.
15:00 – USD: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Preliminary Release)
This indicator reflects American consumers’ confidence in the country’s economic development. A high reading indicates economic growth, while a low one points to stagnation. Previous indicator values: 48.0, 48.1, 51.7, 55.2, 49.5, 44.8, 49.8, 53.3, 56.6, 56.4 in January 2026, 52.9 in December 2025, 51.0 in November, 53.6 in October, 55.1 in September, 58.2 in August, 61.7 in July, 60.7 in June, 52.2 in May and April, 57.0 in March, 64.7 in February, 71.1 in January 2025. An increase in the indicator will strengthen the US dollar, while a decrease will weaken the currency. The data show that the recovery of this indicator is uneven, which is unfavorable for the greenback. A decline below previous values will likely negatively impact the US dollar in the near term.
Price chart of USDX in real time mode
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