What is at stake in the House and Senate
Americans vote on Tuesday 3 November for all 435 House seats, roughly a third of the Senate and 36 governorships, and the consensus, such as it is, points to a change of control in at least one chamber. Republicans hold a 218-214 House majority, leaving Democrats needing a net gain of four seats, and one analysis puts the probability of a Democratic takeover at 90%, with a gain closer to 20 seats, roughly in line with the historical average. The Senate looks considerably tighter, with Democrats also needing four net gains to overturn a 53-47 Republican majority; prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket favour a Democratic sweep, while banks such as Nomura expect a split Congress. President Trump’s approval stood at 32% in a September Reuters/Ipsos poll, the lowest of his presidency, and rising consumer prices, tariffs and the cost of the Iran war feature prominently in many races, Iowa’s Miller-Meeks contest among them, where higher diesel and fertiliser costs have pushed living costs up the agenda.