Bitcoin ETF outflows accelerate
US spot Bitcoin ETF flows have deteriorated sharply alongside the price decline.
The funds recorded a $398.6 million net outflow on 2 November, followed by another $115.6 million withdrawal on 3 November. There was a brief improvement on 4 November, when the ETFs attracted $74.6 million, but this was more than reversed by $430.2 million of outflows on 5 November and a further $411.9 million on 6 November.
That left total weekly outflows at around $1.28 billion, the worst weekly performance since late June. November’s withdrawals have therefore accelerated rapidly after October ended with approximately $515 million of net outflows.
The scale of the recent withdrawals is important because it suggests institutional demand is not yet providing a reliable floor beneath Bitcoin. A sustained return to inflows would therefore be an important signal that the sell-off is losing momentum.
Bitcoin bearish scenario
The main risk is that the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $73,152.25 may give way. Two consecutive daily chart closes below it would likely provoke another bout of selling which may lead to the 9 April low at $70,477.90 and the psychological $70,000 region being hit.
Bitcoin bullish scenario
Were the recent Bitcoin sell-off to fade around the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $73,152.25, another up leg may be formed. For this to be the case, not only the September low at $74,977.57 but also the resistance area made up of the 23 August, 2 and 11 September and 30 October lows at $75,599.14-to-$76,232.63 would need to be overcome. If so a gradual rise towards last week’s high at $81,057.98 may be at hand, an advance above which would favour the bulls once again and may push the $84,000 region to the fore.