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Iron ore futures fell below CNY 787 per tonne on Friday, reversing earlier gains as demand in China, the leading consumer, did not meet expectations following the military parade. Data revealed a 4.7% decline in average daily hot metal output, a critical indicator of iron ore demand, dropping to 2.29 million tons by September 4—the lowest level since February 28. This unexpected dip occurred despite predictions for a more robust recovery as steel mills resumed operations on Thursday. On the supply front, increasing stock levels have contributed to limiting price growth. Concurrently, Goldman Sachs increased its average iron ore price projection for the fourth quarter of 2025, while maintaining its end-of-2026 forecast. Looking ahead, consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie forecasts that China’s steel consumption will decrease by 5-7 million tons annually over the next decade.