Markets just received the Canadian labor report — and unlike the still-missing U.S. one (thanks, government shutdown), this one actually delivered. Canada added +60K jobs vs. +5K expected, a sharp rebound from last month’s -65K loss.
Even better, most of these gains came from full-time positions, signaling renewed strength in the labor market.
Being bullish on the CAD hasn’t been a winning trade this year. It’s been one of the top underperformers in FX—now only slightly ahead of the even weaker JPY—caught in the middle of a challenging macro backdrop.
As a cyclical economy, Canada cooled rapidly after its huge 2022–2023 period.
The job market softened, real estate activity slumped, and slower immigration weighed further on overall growth. Combined with tensions between Ottawa and the Trump-Administration regarding US-Canada trade, the outlook for the loonie had been anything but bright.
Oil prices (One of Canada’s top export, linked to CAD performance) trending down to 5-year lows also haven’t helped the Maple Dollar much.
WTI Oil actually just dipped below $60 – this may hurt US Shale producers even further and hence have less of a net-negative effect on the CAD.
Check how well Oil and the Canadian Dollar correlate throughout the years