Macro update
US stocks rise on renewed rate-cut expectations:
Equities closed higher after ADP and ISM services data strengthened expectations of a December Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, with markets pricing an 89% probability of a 25bp move.
Shutdown-driven data gaps muddy the outlook:
The record 43-day US government shutdown has delayed major releases, forcing investors to lean more heavily on private-sector indicators ahead of the Fed’s decision.
Small caps extend outperformance:
The Russell 2000 jumped nearly 2%, building on last week’s 5.5% gain as investors positioned for easing and a stronger 2026 earnings backdrop.
Nikkei climbs on robotics momentum:
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 1%, driven by double-digit gains in Fanuc, Yaskawa and Nabtesco after Fanuc announced a robotics partnership with Nvidia.
Asian FX steadies as officials intervene:
The US dollar’s recent slide paused after signs of discomfort from Asian policymakers, with Chinese and Japanese authorities acting to slow currency moves and long-dated JGB yields easing from recent highs.
DAX 40 remains bid
The DAX 40 index still has the 24,000 region in its sights while the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 23,512 provides support, together with the 1 December low at 23,434.