Log in to today’s North American session recap for the July 15, 2025.
Today’s session has seen some bizarre reactions to an all-around better-than-expected US CPI data – As a reminder US Headline CPI came in almost as expected (0.287 unrounded Headline vs 0.30% expected).
The Core number was however the more welcomed surprise, coming in at 0.2% (0.227%) vs 0.3% expected – This is what the FED prefers for their decisions.
Still, an initial slow but upwards reaction got followed by some selloff in Bonds hence higher Yields (unusual when CPI misses, even slightly) and a similar turn in Equities: The Dow started the fall which trickled down to S&P then the more resilient Nasdaq towards the afternoon. These market flows will need to be followed closely as such price action is not a good sign for risk-assets. (Except for cryptos which performed well).
As the title explains it, it’s all about the US Dollar, which started off more than mixed at the data release, before exploding towards the US Equity Open.
The USD closes higher by around 0.70%, with the DXY hitting monthly highs of 98.70.
The Canadian CPI also came out as expected, still up on a year-over-year basis (1.9% vs 1.7% last month) – This unloads further the chances of more rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
Most commodities finish down or mixed as the US Dollar didn’t leave much for others on the table – Tomorrow will be key to track if this move as some legs to it.
In the meantime, sentiment appears to have taken a hit, at least in terms of Technicals.