AUD/USD: Found support again at 0.6515, what’s next as RBA looms

• RBA pause likely: Hotter-than-expected inflation and a rebound in Australia’s services sector may prompt the RBA to halt its rate-cut cycle in November and December.
• AUD/USD supported: Renewed rate-differential advantage and easing U.S.–China tensions could lend short-term upside momentum to the Australian dollar.
• Key levels to watch: AUD/USD remains bullish above 0.6515 support, with resistances at 0.6595 and 0.6630.

The Australian dollar has managed to catch a bullish beat last week, reinforced by a US-China trade tension de-escalation narrative ahead of the Trump-Xi in-person meet-up in South Korea on Thursday, 30 November 2025.

The AUD/USD rallied by 1.3% from Monday, 27 October, to hit a two-week high of 0.6611 on Wednesday, 29 October, before the Aussie bulls dwindled and gave way to a broad-based US dollar rebound due to Fed Chair Powell’s “lack of conviction” speech on a December rate cut during the ex-post FOMC press conference.

So far, all the gains seen from 27 October to 29 October have been wiped out on the AUD/USD ahead of today’s RBA meeting. Let’s now examine the various macro and technical factors that may impact the movement of the AUD/USD.

The Australian central bank (RBA) has cut its policy cash rate three times by 25 basis points each so far in 2025, in February, May, and August. Lowering the cash rate from a 13-year high of 4.35% in January 2025 to its current level of 3.6%.

After nearly three years of easing price pressures, Australia’s inflation trend appears to be turning higher again. Core CPI accelerated to 3.5% year-on-year in Q3 2025 from 2.7% in the previous quarter, while the monthly CPI indicator climbed to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August (see Fig. 1).

The hotter-than-expected data, coupled with easing U.S.–China trade tensions following last week’s economic accord in South Korea, could prompt the Reserve Bank of Australia to hit pause on its rate-cut cycle at today’s, 4 November, and December monetary policy meetings.

Against this backdrop, the Australian dollar may find renewed support as widening rate differentials work in its favour.

Australia’s services sector is the dominant part of the Australian economy, accounting for close to 60% of annual GDP, which includes key industries such as health, education, and finance.

The latest S&P Global Services PMI, a forward-looking gauge of business activity, rose to 53.1 in October 2025 from 52.4 in September, signalling a faster pace of expansion (see Fig. 2).

Stronger export demand for services helped offset continued softness in manufacturing. This improvement in the services sector reduces the urgency for further RBA rate cuts, reinforcing expectations that policymakers may pause easing in the coming months.

Let’s now focus on the latest technical analysis elements, short-term trajectory (1 to 3 days), and short-term key levels to watch for AUD/USD.

Bullish bias above 0.6530/0.6515 key short-term pivotal support (also the gap formed on Monday, 27 October), and a clearance above 0.6560 (also the 50-day moving average) may trigger a short-term push up to see the next intermediate resistances coming in at 0.6595 and 0.6620/0.6630 (see Fig. 3).

• The recent weakness of the AUD/USD seen on Friday, 31 October, and Monday, 3 November, has managed to find support at the 20-day moving average and the lower boundary of a minor ascending channel from the 14 October 2025 low.
• The hourly RSI momentum indicator of the AUD/USD has continued to hover above its ascending trendline support after it hit an oversold reading (below 30) on last Thursday, 30 October.

A break below the 0.6515 key short-term support on the AUD/USD invalidates the bullish recovery scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline sequence to expose the next intermediate support at 0.6475 and 0.6445 (also the 200-day moving average).

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