Looking back over the last 15 trading days, most of the AUDUSD price action has been contained within a relatively well-defined range between 0.7100 and 0.7200. There were breaks below the lower boundary on May 19 and May 20, but neither move generated sustained downside momentum. Instead, buyers stepped in near the 0.7100–0.7113 support zone, allowing the pair to rebound back into the range.
On the topside, resistance remains defined by a swing area between 0.7193 and 0.7200, which has repeatedly capped rallies over the past several weeks. In the middle of the range sit the key hourly moving averages, with the 200-hour moving average at 0.7158 and the 100-hour moving average at 0.7163. During trading yesterday, the price moved back below both averages, shifting the near-term bias back in favor of the sellers.
However, what has been missing is downside follow-through. Despite trading below the hourly moving averages, sellers have been unable to generate momentum toward the lower end of the range. The low price today stalled at 0.7123, comfortably above the key support zone. Meanwhile, the corrective rebound has also lost momentum before reaching the 100- and 200-hour moving averages, leaving buyers unable to regain control.
As a result, the technical bias remains tilted to the downside while the price stays below the hourly moving averages. However, sellers still have work to do. To strengthen the bearish case and gain greater control, they need to break below and stay below the 0.7100–0.7113 support area. Until that happens, the broader trading range remains intact and the risk of another bounce from support cannot be ruled out.