The USD/CAD pair is seen extending its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day and trading above the 1.3600 mark during the Asian session on Monday. Moreover, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of last week’s bounce from the vicinity of the 1.3500 psychological mark. A modest
Japan junior coalition partner leader urges tax relief while defending BOJ independence. Summary: Junior coalition leader backs swift food tax suspension, targeting fiscal 2026 rollout. Foreign reserves flagged as funding option, potentially reducing need for new debt issuance. BOJ independence emphasised, with rate decisions left to the central bank. Further rate hikes possible, given weak
Japan’s gross domestic product expanded a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Cabinet Office said in Monday’s preliminary reading. That missed expectations for an increase of 0.4 percent following the downwardly revised 0.7 percent contraction in the three months prior (originally -0.6 percent). On an annualized basis, GDP
New Zealand Business NZ PSI: 50.9 (January) vs previous 51.5 Source link
Washington escalates sanctions enforcement with another long-range tanker interception. Posting this with Globex oil trade about to open for the new week. Summary: US boards second tanker, intercepting the Panama-flagged Veronica III in the Indian Ocean. Operation followed long-distance tracking from the Caribbean amid sanctions enforcement. Vessel carried 1.9 million barrels and is sanctioned by
The key market influence today is the closure of Chinese mainland markets and half days on ly in Hong Kong and Singapore (more detail below the screenshot). The calendar lists China house price data due today. These were published last week: Japanese economic growth data will be eyed. Fourth-quarter GDP is expected to have expanded
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Sun: Japanese Prelim. GDP (Q4) Mon: US Holiday (Washington’s Birthday/Presidents Day); Eurogroup Meeting; Swedish Unemployment (Jan), EZ Industrial Production (Dec) Tue: RBA Minutes (Feb); UK Unemployment/Wages (Dec), German ZEW (Feb), US ADP Weekly, Canadian CPI (Jan), NY Fed (Feb), Chinese Lunar New Year (Hong Kong markets closed from 17th-19th Feb) Wed: RBNZ Announcement, FOMC Minutes
There was no single, dominant theme in currency markets last week. Instead, price action reflected a mix of cross-asset divergences. Dollar ended as the worst performer, despite the fact that Fed expectations barely shifted following high-profile releases of non-farm payrolls and CPI. Meanwhile, US Equities experienced volatility, particularly around renewed AI disruption fears, yet there
Bitcoin Futures are hovering near $68,800 in mid-February 2026, attempting to stabilize after a sharp retracement from last year’s surge above $110,000. At the same time, Ethereum Futures are trading close to $2,050, nearly 50% below their prior highs above $4,000. While crypto appears to be “holding,” the broader backdrop tells a more complex story.
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MUFG’s Michael Wan views the detailed US–India interim trade deal, including tariff cuts and exemptions, as positive for India’s external position. He sees scope for USD/INR to briefly break below 90 in coming months, but expects only a shallow INR recovery. MUFG forecasts USD/INR at 89.50 in Q1 2026 before rising back to 93.00 by
Standard Chartered’s Senior Economist Tommy Wu raises Hong Kong’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 3.2% from 2.5%, citing robust Q4 momentum, stronger financial activity and improving consumer sentiment. The bank expects a modest housing market rebound but remains cautiously optimistic due to structural shifts and global risks. HIBOR is seen lower in H1 before gradually
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High investments and Capital Expenditures that were seen as only positive are now being targeted by profit-takers and short-sellers, as investors question how long it will take to materialize into profits. This comes amid times when OpenAI, the founder of ChatGPT, is under heavy scrutiny for its fast-paced cash burning, and it gets even more
Mid-February data releases will further shape market perceptions of the global economy amid ongoing uncertainty over trade, monetary policy, and fiscal plans by major economies. The Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its most recent meeting, at which it paused its rate-cutting cycle. In the United States, fourth-quarter GDP figures will be released alongside new
