Fitch said India’s budget underscores macro stability and fiscal credibility, with growth seen steady. Summary: Fitch Ratings said India’s latest budget reinforces its commitment to macro stability, even as fiscal consolidation slows. The agency views the FY27 deficit target of 4.3% of GDP as modest progress, reflecting the growing difficulty of further consolidation. Fitch described
Warsh nomination sparks volatility and shifts policy expectations United States (US) equity markets finished lower on Friday after a session of volatility, triggered by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair. The move sparked a strong rally in the heavily shorted US dollar, and a brutal flash crash in
USD/JPY holds ground after three days of gains, trading around 155.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The upside of the pair could be limited as the Japanese Yen (JPY) remains calm following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) January Summary of Opinions. BoJ Summary of Opinions suggested the risk of falling behind the curve has
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The manufacturing sector in Japan bounced up into expansion territory in January, the latest survey from S&P Global revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 51.5. That’s up from 50.0 in December, which marked stagnation as being right non the line that separates expansion from contraction. Helping to push the headline PMI back
Japan’s election-driven fiscal debate is keeping bond and FX markets on edge, with any hint of looser policy risking renewed volatility. Summary: Japanese markets remain highly sensitive to fiscal policy signals ahead of the February 8 snap election, according to a former senior currency official. Any expansion of tax relief risks renewed selling pressure in
The manufacturing sector in Australia continued to expand in January, and at a faster pace, the latest survey from S&P Global revealed on Monday with a manufacturing PMI score of 52.3. That’s up from 51.6 in December and it moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction. Manufacturing production expanded
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As is usual for a Monday morning, market liquidity is very thin until it improves as more Asian centres come online … prices are liable to swing around, so take care out there. Not too much change from late Friday, USD mostly a tiny bit higher: I’ll be back with some weekend news soon …
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I’m convinced that Nutella is the second most important invention after the wheel. So yes, I’m an unapologetic hazelnut fan. That said, a few months ago I started to notice something odd. The price of natural hazelnuts had more or less doubled. Shortly after, they became surprisingly hard to find, at least in supermarkets where
Mon: US Holiday (MLK Day), Eurogroup Summit; EZ Final HICP (Dec), Canadian CPI (Dec), Chinese GDP (Q4), US Leading index (Oct), Housing Starts/Building Permits (Oct), Philadelphia Fed (Jan), New Home Sales (Nov), Australian Flash PMIs (Jan) Tue: PBoC LPR, EU Economic & Financial Affairs Council, UK Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings (Nov), Swiss Producer Prices
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The earnings calendar stays busy next week with major implications for the Nasdaq, the consumer outlook, and the AI trade. This week was a major mixed bag with Meta and Microsoft going in opposite directions. The AI narrative faces another major test next week as Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) will drive sentiment for the
Last week delivered yet another reminder that volatility has become a feature this year, rather than an exception. Sudden repricing episodes continue to emerge, often driven by political and institutional developments rather than changes in economic fundamentals. The latest bout of turbulence was triggered by market repricing around the nomination of former Fed Governor Kevin
