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Author: The Forex Feed
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Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)
Argentina Consumer Price Index (MoM) below expectations (2%) in May: Actual (1.5%)
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Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Euro breaks 1.16 as the US dollar dips on soft data
Markets:
- Gold up $35 to $3388
- WTI crude oil down 4-cents to $68.11
- US 10-year yields down 5.7 bps to 4.36%
- S&P 500 up 0.2%
- CHF leads, USD lags
The US dollar took a dive on Thursday as some levels were knocked out and the bad news continued to mount. The catalyst on the day was a higher-than-expected initial jobless claims report for the third week in a row, combined with a lower PPI reading. In the aftermath of that, the euro rose to 1.1631, which is the highest in three-and-a-half years.
Now those data points alone weren’t the sole source of US dollar selling. It kicked off earlier on signs the US and Iran could be headed for war. In addition, this week’s news on the US-China trade war has been neutral, at best. Two days of negotiations have seemingly only led to an agreement to abide by the previous Geneva agreement.
Finally, some momentum was involved as the euro cracked 1.1500 yesterday, which was previously a tough line to get above. That has been followed on with bids/stops.
The dollar selling was broad as cable also rose to the highest since 2022, though it only briefly rose above the June 4 high. USD/CAD fell to the lowest since October as signs continue to mount that the US and Canada are working hard on a trade deal.
Right across the board the US dollar was soft and it was underscored by falling yields right across the curve. That was helped along by a strong 30-year Treasury auction.
Friday features more US consumer sentiment data but that’s hardly a market mover these days. Instead, we will focus on Iran and the trade war.
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USD/JPY falls toward 144.00 ahead of key US-Japan trade talks
- USD/JPY edges lower on broad-based US Dollar weakness.
- Tariff threats reemerge ahead of upcoming talks between the United States and Japan.
- The G7 meeting in Canada on Sunday sets the stage for USD/JPY’s next big move.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) and the US Dollar (USD) share a complex relationship, with the interests of the two global powerhouses intertwined in the USD/JPY pair.
With USD/JPY currently trading at a critical juncture around the 144.00 psychological level, 0.65% down on Thursday, tensions between the two nations have come into focus.
While USD/JPY is one of the most widely traded forex pairs, Thursday’s price action appears to be driven more by underlying geopolitical sentiment than by technical factors alone.
As the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, Japan has opposed US President Trump’s tariff policies, which include 50% duties on steel and aluminum imports and 25% tariffs on automobiles and auto parts. High tariffs on Japan’s key exports, including steel, aluminum, and car parts, are placing pressure on the Japanese economy, contributing to rising inflation.
With the two nations preparing for the Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Canada, talks are expected to take place in an effort to reach some form of trade agreement.
With the two nations preparing for the Group of Seven (G7) meeting in Canada, talks are expected to take place in an effort to reach some form of trade agreement.
During a testimony before the House Ways on Wednesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that “There are 18 important trading partners — we are working toward deals on those — and it is highly likely that those countries that are … negotiating in good faith, we will roll the date forward.” Japan has been mentioned as one of the countries with which the US is actively negotiating.
Although Trump continues to express the need for other countries to make a deal with the US, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba remains committed to ensuring that Japan gets a fair deal. Ryosei Akazawa, the chief trade negotiator for Ishiba, is anticipated to head to North America later this week for the sixth round of talks with his counterparts.
On Thursday, Bloomberg reported comments made by Ishiba in Tokyo at a meeting where Japanese leaders gathered to discuss the situation with the US.
“If there’s progress before I meet the president, that’s in and of itself good,” he stated.
He followed up by stating, “What’s important is to achieve an agreement that’s beneficial to both Japan and the US. We won’t compromise Japan’s interests by prioritizing a quick deal.”
For USD/JPY, the recent weakness in the pair can be attributed to a rise in USD outflows that have favoured alternative currencies. With trade talks in focus, these negotiations could contribute to the pair’s near-term move, especially if Japan uses its holdings in US Treasuries as a negotiating tool against the US.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
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Macro traders tread carefully ahead of tariff pause deadline
Macro investors are struggling to find good trades ahead of the July 9 deadline for the Trump administration’s 90-day tariff pause, choosing instead to focus on the ‘day-to-day’.
Traders are having to navigate multiple discrete risk events, such as central bank, G7 and Nato meetings, before the tariff pause ends, and are unsure whether the deadline will move again.
“Both of those things make it difficult to put on trades right now,” says Jonathan Cohn, head of US rates strategy at Nomura. “Trying
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OnePrime Appoints Katalina Pantea as Head of Compliance
OnePrime, a brand operated within the OneRoyal Group by Royal Financial Trading Pty Ltd, is pleased to announce the appointment of Katalina Pantea as its new Head of Compliance. With over two decades of experience in regulatory compliance, anti-money laundering (AML), and financial risk management, Katalina brings deep industry expertise and strategic leadership to the role.
Katalina’s career spans banking, investment, and fintech, with senior positions including Group Head of Compliance and Executive Director at BDSwiss Holding Ltd and Charlgate Ltd. She has held compliance officer roles across multiple jurisdictions, including Cyprus, Mauritius, Seychelles, and South Africa, and has a strong track record of aligning compliance strategies with both EU and international regulatory frameworks—making her ideally suited to support OnePrime’s expanding global footprint.
In her current role at Royal Financial Trading (CY) Ltd, Katalina serves as Executive Director and Group Head of Compliance and Legal, collaborating closely with CySEC and other international regulators. Her leadership style emphasizes embedding robust compliance systems across complex organizations, balancing evolving regulatory obligations with commercial objectives.
Katalina holds advanced certifications in Compliance, AML, GDPR, Blockchain Security, ESG Finance, and Financial Services Regulation. She is also a Fellow of the International Compliance Association (ICA) and a member of ACAMS, underscoring her commitment to professional excellence and ongoing development.
“We are thrilled to welcome Katalina to lead our compliance function at OnePrime,” said Jacob Nel, CEO of OnePrime. “Her depth of experience and proactive approach to regulatory change are exactly what we need as we continue expanding our institutional liquidity solutions globally.”
“I’m excited to join OnePrime at such a pivotal stage in its growth,” said Katalina Pantea. “Regulatory integrity is fundamental to building trust in financial markets, and I look forward to strengthening our compliance culture as we expand globally.”Katalina’s appointment reinforces OnePrime’s commitment to integrity, transparency, and regulatory excellence, while empowering brokers and financial institutions to grow confidently in today’s dynamic markets.
About OnePrime
OnePrime is a brand operated within the OneRoyal Group by Royal Financial Trading Pty Ltd, providing tailored liquidity and trading infrastructure solutions to emerging and established forex brokers globally. Operating under an ASIC license, OnePrime helps clients optimize execution, manage risk, and scale with confidence.
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Dollar Crushed as Dovish Inflation Data and Trade Tensions Weigh; Euro Surges to Multi-Year High
Dollar accelerated its broad-based selloff in early US trading, plunging to its lowest level against Euro since 2021. The latest catalyst came from softer-than-expected May PPI data, which followed Wednesday’s downside surprise in CPI. The tandem inflation prints have further calmed fears of immediate tariff-driven price pass-through, at least for now, and are reinforcing expectations that Fed is moving closer to resume policy easing.
As a result, market expectations for Fed easing have firmed up. Fed funds futures are now pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut in September, up from around 75% just a week ago before the two inflation releases. The tone of both upstream and downstream price measures—despite the tariff backdrop—has strengthened the market’s conviction that Fed will deliver a cut before the fourth quarter, particularly as labor market data has also started to show signs of softening.
Adding to Dollar’s woes is renewed uncertainty over US trade policy. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated the possibility of extending the current 90-day tariff truce with “good faith” trading partners, President Donald Trump struck a starkly different tone. Trump dismissed the need for any extension and hinted that countries would be unilaterally informed of their new tariff terms in the coming weeks. This reinforces fears that the US may revert to aggressive, one-sided trade actions just as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration.
In the currency markets, Dollar is clearly the weakest performer of the day, followed by Loonie and Aussie. In contrast, safe-haven demand has lifted Swiss Franc to the top of the board, with Euro and Yen close behind. Euro in particular continues to draw support from a series of ECB officials signaling that the rate-cut cycle is nearing completion. That divergence—between a Fed leaning dovish and an ECB shifting toward a pause—is now starkly reflected in EUR/USD price action.
Sterling and Kiwi are trading in the middle of the pack, with the Pound underperforming its European peers. UK GDP contracted more than expected in April, reinforcing expectations for a BoE rate cut in August. Despite some signs of resilience in the broader three-month growth trend, momentum has clearly slowed, leaving BoE less justification to hold rates elevated for much longer.
Technically, Gold is also bouncing on Dollar weakness, and focus is back on 3403.49 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 3120.34, and revive the case that correction from 3499.79 high has completed. Further rally should then be seen to retest 3499.79.
In Europe, at the time of writing, FTSE is up 0.18%. DAX is down -0.87%. CAC is down -0.43%. UK 10-year yield is down -0.063 at 4.488. Germany 10-year yield is down -0.059 at 2.478. Earlier in Asia, Nikkei fell -0.65%. Hong Kong HSI fell -1.36%. China Shanghai SSE rose 0.01%. Singapore Strait Times rose 0.08%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.001 to 1.460.
US initial jobless claims unchanged at 248k, match expectations
US initial jobless claims were unchanged at 248k in the week ended June 7, slightly below expectation of 251k. Four-week moving average of initial claims rose 5k to 240k, highest since August 26, 2023.
Continuing claims rose 54k to 1956k in the week ending May 31, highest sine November 13, 2021. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 20k to 1915k, highest since November 27, 2021.
US PPI up 0.1% mom, 2.6% yoy in May
US PPI rose 0.1% mom in May, below expectation of 0.2% mom. PPI services rose 0.1% mom, while PPI goods rose 0.2% mom. PPI less food, energy and trade services rose 0.1% mom.
For the 12 months period, PPI rose from 2.5% yoy to 2.6% yoy, matched expectations. PPI less food, energy and trade services rose 2.7% yoy.
ECB Schnabel: Monetary easing nears end as Europe embraces stronger Euro and fiscal support
ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel signaled today that the central bank’s monetary easing cycle is “coming to an end,” citing stable medium-term inflation forecasts and improving macroeconomic conditions.
Speaking with notable confidence, Schnabel downplayed the expected dip in inflation—projected at just 1.6% in 2026—as a “temporary deviation” caused by energy base effects and a stronger euro.
Schnabel painted a relatively constructive picture of the Eurozone economy, stating that growth remains “broadly stable” even as global trade tensions intensify. Private consumption continues to provide a key pillar of support, while both manufacturing and construction sectors are showing signs of recovery. She also highlighted that “Additional defense and infrastructure spending counteract tariff shock on growth”.
In her view, these structural shifts, combined with a resilient Euro and outperforming equity markets, reflect a “new European growth narrative” that could elevate the region’s economic standing.
Still, Schnabel acknowledged the risks posed by escalating trade tensions, particularly in the form of inflation volatility and financial market uncertainty. She warned that tariffs can be amplified through global value chains, posing upside risks to inflation. At the same time weaponisation of raw materials threatens to further strain supply chains.
ECB Villeroy and Šimkus emphasize flexibility as policy hits neutral zone
Comments from two ECB Governing Council members today reinforced a cautious stance as the easing cycle appears to have reached a natural pause, following eight consecutive rate cuts.
French member Francois Villeroy de Galhau emphasized flexibility, telling Franceinfo radio that future policy will depend on how inflation evolves, stressing a preference for “pragmatism and agility.”
Lithuanian member Gediminas Šimkus echoed a similar tone, stating that policy has now reached a “neutral level”. It is critical for ECB to maintain the freedom, “not to commit to one direction or another”. He warned of growing uncertainty, particularly around upcoming US trade decisions as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiry on July 9.
UK GDP contracts -0.3% mom in April, as services drag
The UK economy contracted -0.3% mom in April, a sharper decline than the expected -0.1%. The main drag came from the services sector, which fell -0.4% mom and contributed most to the monthly GDP drop. Production also shrank -0.6% mom. In contrast, construction provided a rare bright spot, rising 0.9% mom, though not enough to offset broader weakness.
Despite the poor April print, the broader picture remains more constructive. GDP expanded 0.7% in the three months to April compared to the prior three-month period, with services up 0.6%, production up 1.1%, and construction up 0.5%.
Japanese business confidence sours amid tariff fears and profit warnings
Business sentiment in Japan deteriorated sharply in Q2, with the Ministry of Finance’s survey revealing a broad-based loss of confidence across industries.
The overall index for large firms slipped into negative territory at -1.09, down from Q1’s modest 2.0. Large manufacturers saw sentiment weaken further from -2.4 to -4.8, while large non-manufacturers experienced a steep drop from 5.2 to -5.7, suggesting that economic uncertainty is spreading beyond export-heavy sectors.
The survey also highlighted a growing sense of earnings pessimism. Large manufacturers now expect recurring profits to decline -1.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, a downgrade from the -0.6% fall seen in the previous survey. Particularly alarming is the auto sector’s outlook, with automakers and parts suppliers projecting a severe -19.8% drop in profits.
This highlights the mounting concern over the impact of steep US tariffs, which threaten to hit Japan’s flagship export industry hard and weigh on broader economic momentum.
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1429; (P) 1.1465; (R1) 1.1524; More…
EUR/USD’s rally from 1.0176 resumed by accelerating through 1.1572 resistance. Intraday bias stays on the upside at this point. Next target is 61.8% projection of 1.0176 to 1.1572 from 1.1064 at 1.1927. On the downside, below 1.1504 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 1.1604 support holds.
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United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average climbed from previous 235K to 240.25K in June 6
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German Stock Market Decline: Why The DAX Is Under Pressure
German stocks under pressure amid multiple headwinds
Germany’s stock market, along with broader European indices, is under pressure due to the confluence of geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty, and policy ambiguity.
Down by over 3% from its early June high at 24,479, the German stock index – the DAX 40 – is on track for its fourth consecutive day of declines despite US markets holding up relatively well.
Apart from possible investor fatigue regarding buying German stocks at these elevated levels, there are several other factors which likely contribute to the indices’ recent relative underperformance.
Geopolitical tensions drive safe-haven flows
The growing threat of a direct conflict between Israel and Iran – and possible US involvement – has spooked global investors. Israel has signalled its preparedness to carry out a military operation against Iran, according to briefings with US officials.
In response, the United States has raised its travel alert to Level 4 for Iraq and begun evacuating non-essential diplomatic staff from various countries in the Middle East. The situation reflects a serious deterioration in regional stability. Iran, for its part, has reportedly vowed immediate missile retaliation should an Israeli strike occur.
The US is also bracing for potential retaliatory actions targeting its military and diplomatic assets, particularly in Iraq. As a result, capital is fleeing riskier assets like equities and rotating into safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds.
Germany’s DAX index, composed heavily of export-oriented and cyclical firms, is particularly sensitive to global risk sentiment. The index’s concentration in industrial and automotive companies makes it especially vulnerable when investors seek defensive positioning during periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
Trade tensions threaten German export economy
President Trump’s renewed tariff threats – not only targeting China but also other trading partners – raise alarm bells for Germany, which is the world’s third-largest exporter. The US President announced plans to send letters to key trading partners within the next one to two weeks, setting out unilateral tariff rates.
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested the administration may extend the current 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for countries demonstrating “good faith” in negotiations.
German manufacturers are especially vulnerable to disruptions in global trade flows and supply chains, which is why the German DAX 40 index is hit harder than some of its European peers.
The threat of trade wars poses an existential challenge to Germany’s economic model, which relies heavily on manufactured exports to global markets. Any significant disruption to these trade flows could have severe consequences for German corporate earnings and economic growth.
Weak market catalysts and economic uncertainty
Although a US-China trade framework has been announced, its lack of detail and China’s pending approval mean it has failed to reassure markets. Without a concrete resolution, the deal provides little support for investor sentiment – especially for Europe, which benefits from stable trade dynamics between the two superpowers.
While US inflation came in slightly below expectations, the outlook remains clouded by inflation risks tied to tariffs and uncertain monetary policy. This ambiguity on the Fed’s next moves reverberates globally, impacting rate expectations and market liquidity.
German industrials, automakers, and tech firms – all DAX heavyweights – are highly exposed to both geopolitical and trade headwinds. The lack of demand visibility amid these mounting risks has triggered renewed fears of downward earnings revisions.
The interconnected nature of global supply chains means that uncertainty in one major market quickly transmits to others, with Germany’s export-focused economy particularly vulnerable to these cross-border spillover effects.
Valuation concerns prompt sector rotation
As of June 12, 2025, the German stock market, represented by the DAX index, has experienced a notable increase in its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio compared to the beginning of the year.
The trailing P/E ratio stands at 18.67, which is above the 5-year average range of 12.10 to 15.67, indicating that the market is currently considered “expensive” relative to historical norms.
This compares to a trailing P/E ratio of 15.04 on January 1, 2025 for the DAX index, with a forward P/E ratio of 12.99, suggesting that valuations have risen considerably over the past six months.
The sharp increase in the P/E ratio indicates that investors are willing to pay more for each unit of earnings, often reflecting expectations of future earnings growth. However, such elevated valuations can also signal potential overvaluation, especially if earnings do not meet expectations.
Capital flows reverse toward US markets
Some large US institutional investors are cashing in some of their profits in German stocks and re-investing their gains in their domestic market, helped further by a weak US dollar, making those purchases cheaper for investors who sell stocks in euro. The rotation out of expensive US stocks, especially ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks into German stocks is probably, at least partially, being reversed.
This rotation pattern suggests that the earlier European rally may have been driven more by relative valuation considerations than fundamental improvements in German economic prospects.
The reversal of these capital flows creates additional selling pressure on German equities at a time when domestic and international headwinds are already weighing on market sentiment.
DAX 40 technical analysis
The DAX 40’s recent slip hasn’t come as a surprise to technical analysts as negative divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) increased the odds for a correction to be seen. It occurs when the underlying asset, in this case the DAX 40, makes new highs but the oscillator, the RSI, is making lower highs, thus not confirming the uptrend and instead showing negative divergence.
DAX 40 daily candlestick chart
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Gold Becomes Second-Largest Global Reserve Asset. Forecast as of 12.06.2025
Central banks are ramping up their gold purchases, increasing the precious metal’s share in global reserves to 20%. The euro has fallen to third place with 16%. The US dollar remains the leading reserve currency. The weakness of the euro has created a favorable environment for the XAUUSD. Let’s discuss these topics and make a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Gold has overtaken the euro in central bank reserves.
- Rising geopolitical risks are supporting the precious metal.
- The decline in the dollar and Treasury yields is supporting XAUUSD quotes.
- One can buy gold if the price breaks through the resistance level of $3,400.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Gold
Central banks were so frightened that the West froze Russian assets that only massive gold purchases helped them alleviate this stress. Against this backdrop, gold’s share in global foreign reserves at the end of 2024 was 20% at market prices, the second-highest figure after the US dollar’s 46%. The euro’s share fell to 16%. This buying frenzy was one of the main drivers of the gold rally. Since the end of 2022, XAUUSD prices have doubled, reaching an all-time high above $3,500 in April.
Gold’s Share in Global Central Banks’ Foreign Reserves
Source: Bloomberg.
With central banks planning to purchase 1,000 tons or more of gold for the fourth consecutive year and the dollar and US Treasury bond yields falling, gold is poised for growth. At the end of 2024, regulators’ precious metal reserves were estimated at 36,000 tons, close to the 1965 record high of 38,000 tons.
Global Gold Reserves Held By Central Banks
Source: Bloomberg.
The lack of acceleration in US inflation due to tariffs has become another reason for XAUUSD to return to the upper boundary of its $3,100–$3,500 range. Historically, the price of gold has been sensitive to real Treasury yields. If they remain low, the precious metal rises. Furthermore, if consumer prices remain stable or decline, the Fed resumes its cycle of monetary expansion, creating a strong tailwind for gold prices.
At the same time, the weakening US dollar is providing support for gold. Since the precious metal is quoted in US dollars, the decline of more than 9% in the USD index since the beginning of the year is a favorable factor for the XAUUSD.
Geopolitical factors also play a pivotal role. Donald Trump has failed to end the armed conflict in Eastern Europe, and the situation in the Middle East is escalating. Iran has threatened to strike US military bases if negotiations with the US on its nuclear program fail. The US administration is reducing its presence in the region and instructing all nonessential personnel to leave.
Due to the growing geopolitical risks in the Middle East, TD Securities has announced the opening of a strategic long position on the XAUUSD, targeting a price of $3,650. The company expects gold to reach this target within a month.
Weekly Trading Plan for Gold
Undoubtedly, gold is surging on numerous bullish factors. However, the de-escalation of trade wars and the current high global risk appetite could hinder its growth. Currently, positions opened on rebounds from the upper or lower boundaries of the medium-term consolidation range of $3,100-$3,400 per ounce are deemed effective. However, if the asset violates the resistance level of $3400, long trades can be increased. Otherwise, a rebound will provide a lucrative opportunity to open short trades.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAUUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
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Technical Analysis of US Crude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD for Today (June 12, 2025)
I welcome my fellow traders! I have made a price forecast for USCrude, XAUUSD, and EURUSD using a combination of margin zones methodology and technical analysis. Based on the market analysis, I suggest entry signals for intraday traders.
The euro continued to rise today.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- USCrude: Oil continued to trade in an uptrend yesterday.
- XAUUSD: Gold is testing the Target Zone 3368 – 3345 from below.
- EURUSD: The euro is trying to break through the upper Target Zone 1.1514 – 1.1473.
Oil Price Forecast for Today: USCrude Analysis
Yesterday, oil pierced the Gold Zone 65.70 – 65.44 within a short-term uptrend. The next bullish target is the Target Zone 2, 68.54 – 68.02. The price is trading in a downward correction. If the correction continues, the asset may test the support (A) 64.76 – 64.46. Once this zone is reached, consider long trades with the target at today’s high.
The trend boundary is shifting to 63.26 – 62.80.
USCrude Trading Ideas for Today:
Buy near support (A) 64.76 – 64.46. TakeProfit: 66.11, 67.76. StopLoss: 63.92.
Gold Forecast for Today: XAUUSD Analysis
Gold is increasing within a short-term uptrend. The bullish target is the resistance of 3403. If the price consolidates above this level, it may climb to the target in the Gold Zone 3428 – 3420.
If the price remains below the 3403 level, a downward correction may start. If so, the quotes may fall to the key support 3291 – 3279. Consider long trades near this zone.
XAUUSD Trading Ideas for Today:
Buy near support (B) 3291 – 3279. TakeProfit: 3341, 3403. StopLoss: 3258.
Euro/Dollar Forecast for Today: EURUSD Analysis
Today, the euro continued to strengthen. As a result, the price has tested the upper boundary of the Target Zone, the 1.1514 level. The resistance level has not been pierced yet, although the trend remains upward.
Therefore, if the asset breaks through the 1.1514 level, the price may continue to grow to the Gold Zone 1.1622 – 1.1609. If not, a downward correction may follow, targeting the support (A) 1.1396 – 1.1383. Consider long trades near this zone.
EURUSD Trading Ideas for Today:
Buy near support (A) 1.1396 – 1.1383. TakeProfit: 1.1457, 1.1532. StopLoss: 1.1356.
Would you like to learn more about technical analysis methods and principles? Explore our comprehensive guide.
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Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
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Sterling Slides on Poor UK GDP, While Dollar Struggles Under Trade Uncertainty
Sterling came under renewed pressure at the start of European session, triggered by a deeper-than-expected contraction in UK GDP for April. Services sector, the economy’s dominant component, posted its first monthly decline since October. Nine out of 14 services subsectors registered falls, pointing to broad-based weakness. It’s a disappointing start to Q2 and follows weaker-than-expected labor data earlier in the week.
The string of soft UK economic releases is likely to reinforce BoE’s case for policy easing. Market expectations for a rate cut in August are now firming, with investors betting that the BoE will continue its gradual loosening cycle. While the central bank has maintained a cautious stance thus far, the data flow increasingly supports action sooner rather than later, especially if core inflation continues to moderate alongside cooling wages and tepid output growth.
Meanwhile, Dollar remains the worst-performing major currency this week, despite receiving a brief reprieve from a strong 10-year Treasury auction on Wednesday. Market attention is now on today’s 30-year auction, which could provide further clues about investor confidence in US fiscal stability. A solid reception would help calm nerves around rising debt issuance.
However, the broader macro backdrop, particularly trade uncertainty, continues to weigh heavily on the greenback. Hopes that this week’s US-China talks would deliver material de-escalation were dashed after no tariffs were rolled back as part of the so-called framework deal. Instead, the absence of concrete outcomes, coupled with hints that the US may further delay its self-imposed 90-day tariff review deadline, has left markets in limbo.
Testifying before Congress, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent struck a more conciliatory tone, suggesting that Washington may extend the negotiation window with key trading partners—including the EU—if they are seen to be acting in “good faith”. While this may avert immediate tariff escalation, it also signals that trade talks could drag on well into the second half of the year. That lack of resolution is weighing on sentiment and feeding into a mild risk-off tone across markets.
In terms of weekly currency performance, Euro is the clear outperformer, while Yen and Swiss Franc are also benefiting from safe-haven flows. At the other end of the spectrum, Dollar leads the laggards, followed by the Aussie and Sterling. The Loonie and Kiwi are trading more neutrally. Overall, markets are showing a tilt toward risk aversion.
Technically, an immediate focus is now on 38.2% retracement of 0.8737 to 0.8354 at 0.8500. in EUR/GBP. Decisive break there will suggest that fall from 0.8737 has completed at 0.8354. Even as a corrective bounce, rise from there would target 61.8% retracement at 0.8591.
In Asia, Nikkei closed down -0.65%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.89%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.03%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.21%. Japan 10-year JGB yield fell -0.002 to 1.458. Overnight, DOW closed down -0.00%. S&P 500 fell -0.27%. NASDAQ fell -0.50%. 10-year yield fell sharply by -0.062 to 4.412.
UK GDP contracts -0.3% mom in April, as services drag
The UK economy contracted -0.3% mom in April, a sharper decline than the expected -0.1%. The main drag came from the services sector, which fell -0.4% mom and contributed most to the monthly GDP drop. Production also shrank -0.6% mom. In contrast, construction provided a rare bright spot, rising 0.9% mom, though not enough to offset broader weakness.
Despite the poor April print, the broader picture remains more constructive. GDP expanded 0.7% in the three months to April compared to the prior three-month period, with services up 0.6%, production up 1.1%, and construction up 0.5%.
Japanese business confidence sours amid tariff fears and profit warnings
Business sentiment in Japan deteriorated sharply in Q2, with the Ministry of Finance’s survey revealing a broad-based loss of confidence across industries.
The overall index for large firms slipped into negative territory at -1.09, down from Q1’s modest 2.0. Large manufacturers saw sentiment weaken further from -2.4 to -4.8, while large non-manufacturers experienced a steep drop from 5.2 to -5.7, suggesting that economic uncertainty is spreading beyond export-heavy sectors.
The survey also highlighted a growing sense of earnings pessimism. Large manufacturers now expect recurring profits to decline -1.2% in the fiscal year ending March 2026, a downgrade from the -0.6% fall seen in the previous survey. Particularly alarming is the auto sector’s outlook, with automakers and parts suppliers projecting a severe -19.8% drop in profits.
This highlights the mounting concern over the impact of steep US tariffs, which threaten to hit Japan’s flagship export industry hard and weigh on broader economic momentum.
EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1429; (P) 1.1465; (R1) 1.1524; More…
EUR/USD’s rise from 1.1064 resumed by breaking through 1.1494 and intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1572 high. Strong resistance could be seen there to bring another fall, to extend the near term consolidation pattern. Firm break of 1.1404 support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.1209 first. However, decisive break of 1.1572 will resume whole rise from 1.0176.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9534 long term bottom could be correcting the multi-decade downtrend or the start of a long term up trend. In either case, further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.0894) holds.
