Rate cuts by year-end Fed: 66 bps (79% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) ECB: 25 bps (87% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) BoE: 53 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting) BoC: 33 bps (62% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting) RBA: 80 bps
The USD/CAD forecast indicates a sharp pullback from Friday’s peaks. The pair dropped last week as Trump renewed his attacks on the Fed. US data revealed that inflation rose by 0.2% compared to estimates of 0.1%. The USD/CAD forecast suggests a sharp pullback from Friday’s peaks as focus shifts back to US monetary policy. Initially,
Germany’s retail sales dropped unexpectedly in May as both food and non-food retail sectors registered contractions, data from Destatis revealed on Monday. Retail sales decreased 1.6 percent month-on-month in May but better than the 0.6 percent drop seen in April. Sales were expected to grow 0.5 percent. Data showed that sales in food sector were
The Trump Administration has gotten costs down, very substantially, for the American Consumer. There has never been anything like this! The Senate today at 9:00 am ET will begin a process called “vote-a-rama” in which members can offer unlimited amendments. That will be followed by a vote on final passage. Trump wants the bill done
The forex market opened the week with low volatility and mixed Asian equities, but politically driven developments are keeping some G10 currencies in motion. Dollar is the weakest performer so far, with the Canadian Dollar also under pressure despite rebounding from weekend lows. Yen leads amid safe-haven inflows, while Kiwi and Aussie post modest gains.
US equity markets continued their bullish climb on Friday, 27 June, defying renewed stagflation risks. Core PCE inflation for May rose to 2.7% y/y (above April’s 2.6% and consensus), while personal spending contracted -0.1% m/m—the first decline since January, highlighting the impact of tariffs and economic uncertainty on consumer demand. The S&P 500 (+0.5%) and
Retail Sales in Germany rose 1.6% over the year in May. EUR/USD defends bids above 1.1700 following the downbeat data. Retail Sales in Germany unexpectedly dropped 1.6% month-over-month (MoM) in May, following the revised 0.6% decline reported in April, according to official data released by Destatis on Monday. The market forecast was for a 0.5% increase. On an
Flash inflation and retail sales from Germany and revised GDP and mortgage approvals from the UK are due on Monday, headlining a hectic day for the European economic news. At 2.00 am ET, Destatis publishes Germany’s import prices and retail sales figures. Retail sales are forecast to grow 0.5 percent month-on-month in May, in contrast
There are a couple to take note of on the day, as highlighted in bold. The first ones being for EUR/USD at the 1.1700 and 1.1750 levels. The expiry levels don’t tie in to any technical significance but they could very well play a role in terms of limiting price action as we look towards
Record highs and trade triumphs United States (US) stocks closed at record highs on Friday, driven by optimism over pending trade agreements and rising expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. For the week, the US 500 (S&P 500) gained 3.44%, closing at a fresh record high, while the US Tech 100 (Nasdaq 100)gained 4.20%, also
Japanese households are set to face sharper cost-of-living pressures in July, with a private survey showing food price hikes on more than 2,100 items — a five-fold increase from a year earlier. The average price increase is expected to be around 15%, according to Teikoku Databank, which surveyed 195 major food manufacturers. More from the
Industrial production in Japan was up a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent on month in May, the ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry said on Monday. That missed forecasts for an increase of 3.4 percent following the 1.1 percent decline in April. On a yearly basis, industrial production was down 1.8 percent. Upon the release of
Trump has accused Japan of engaging in unfair trade practices in the automobile sector, calling for Tokyo to boost imports of U.S. energy and goods to help narrow the trade deficit. In a Fox News interview aired Sunday, Trump criticised the imbalance, noting that while the U.S. imports millions of Japanese vehicles, Japan takes few
The theme of the 2025 European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking is Adapting to change: macroeconomic shifts and policy responses 30 June-2 July 2025 In Sintra, Portugal European Central Bank President Lagarde kicks off the speeches at 1730 GMT today, Monday, June 30, 2025. On Tuesday we’ll hear from a few more of the
Japan will on Monday release preliminary May numbers for industrial production, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. Production is expected to add 2.6 percent on month, easing from 4.9 percent in April. Japan also will see May figures for construction orders and housing starts; in April, construction orders surged 52.7 percent on year,
Australia’s mining and energy export earnings are forecast to continue falling over the next two years, weighed down by weaker bulk commodity prices, rising global supply, and mounting trade policy uncertainties, according to the federal government’s June-quarter resources and energy report (the report is from Australia’s Department of Industry, Science and Resources). Export revenues are
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