Author: The Forex Feed

2025.01.14 2025.01.15
Economic Calendar for the Week 20.01.2025 – 26.01.2025

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

Early last week, the DXY Dollar Index surpassed the 110.00 threshold and is now continuing its upward momentum toward the November 2022 highs and the 111.00 level. The dollar is rising amid positive macro statistics from the US, and its buyers open more trades in anticipation of the new White House administration following the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump on January 20.

The US dollar is gaining traction as a safe haven asset amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. Investors are increasingly worried about Trump’s rhetoric regarding the purchase of Greenland and the potential for the Panama Canal to return to US control. Furthermore, the possibility of addressing these concerns, including through military means, remains on the table.

In the upcoming week, 20.01.2025 – 26.01.2025, market participants will focus on the release of important macro statistics on the US, UK, Canada, New Zealand, Germany, the eurozone, as well as the Bank of Japan meeting results (on Friday).

Note: During the coming week, new events may be added to the calendar, and/or some scheduled events may be canceled. GMT time

Major Takeaways

• Monday: newly elected US President Donald Trump’s inauguration.
• Tuesday: UK labor market data.
• Wednesday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
• Thursday: no important macro statistics is scheduled.
• Friday: German, eurozone, UK, and US preliminary PMIs.
• The key event of the week: German, eurozone, UK, and US preliminary PMIs

Monday, January 20

Banks and stock exchanges in the US will be closed due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day celebrations. Trading volumes will be low. Besides, the inauguration of the newly elected US President Donald Trump will take place on this day. While no significant macroeconomic reports are scheduled for release, investors keeping an eye on the Australian and New Zealand dollars and other key currencies from the Asia-Pacific region should pay close attention to the results from the People’s Bank of China’s meeting.

01:15 – CNY: People’s Bank of China Interest Rate Decision

Since May 2012, the People’s Bank of China has been lowering its interest rate to support Chinese manufacturers. Last time, the bank reduced the rate in October 2024 after a long pause since August 2023, bringing the rate down by 0.1% to its current level of 3.10%.

In 2024, the world’s major central banks have also started a policy easing cycle amid slowing inflation. What will the Chinese central bank do this time after pausing since September 2023 and easing policy in July 2024?

The People’s Bank of China will likely keep the interest rate unchanged at 3.10% at this meeting, although other decisions are also possible.

Should the People’s Bank of China make statements that deviate from expectations, volatility may increase across the entire financial market, particularly in the Asian one. Investors will closely watch the bank’s assessment of the Chinese economy’s prospects and its policy stance in the short term.

Tuesday, January 21

07:00 – GBP: Average Weekly Earnings Over the Last Three Months. Unemployment Rate

The UK Office for National Statistics monthly publishes a report on average weekly earnings covering the period for the last three months, including and excluding bonuses.

This report is a key short-term indicator of employee average earnings changes in the UK. An increase in wages is positive for the British pound, whereas a low indicator value is unfavorable. Forecast: The January report suggests that average earnings, including bonuses, rose again in the last three months, including September, October, and November, after gaining +5.2%, +4.3%, +3.8%, +4.0%, 4.5%, +5.7%, +5.9%, +5.7%, +5.6%, +5.6%, +5.8%, +6.5%, +7.2%, +7.9%, +8.1%, +8.5%, +8.2%, +6.9%, +6.5%, +5.8%, +5.9%, +6.0%, +6.5%, +6.%, +6.1%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +6.4%, +6.8%, +7.0%, +5.6%, +5.7%, +4.8%, +4.3%, +4.2% in previous periods. The earnings value excluding bonuses also increased with percentages at +5.2%, +4.8%, +4.9%, +5.1%, +5.4%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.0%, +6.1%, +6.2%, +6.6%, +7.3%, +7.7%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.8%, +7.3%, +7.2%, +6.7%, +6.6%, +6.6%, +6.7%, +6.5%, +6.1%, +5.8%, +5.5%, +5.2%, +4.7%, +4.4%, +4.2%, +4.2%, +4.1%, +3.8%, +3.7%, +3.8% in previous periods. These figures show continued growth in employee earnings levels, which is positive for the British pound. If the data outperforms the forecast and/or previous values, the pound will likely strengthen in the currency exchange market. Conversely, if the data falls short of the forecast/previous values, the pound will be negatively affected.

The UK unemployment data will be released at the same time. Unemployment is expected to stand at 4.3% for the three months of September, October, and November (against 4.3%, 4.3%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.4%, 4.4%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.8%, 3.9%, 4.0%, 4.1%, 4.2%, 4.3%, 4.2%, 4.0%, 3.9% in previous periods).

Since 2012, the UK unemployment rate has fallen steadily from 8.0% in September 2012. The unemployment decline is a positive factor for the pound, while its growth negatively impacts the currency.

If the UK labor market data appears to be worse than the forecast and/or the previous value, the pound will be under pressure.

Regardless, when the UK labor market data is released, the pound and the London Stock Exchange are expected to experience increased volatility.

13:30 – CAD: Canadian Consumer Price Indexes

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflects the retail price trends of a selected basket of goods and services. Meanwhile, the Core CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. The inflation target for the Bank of Canada ranges between 1% and 3%. A higher CPI reading is a sign of a rate hike and is positive for the Canadian dollar.

Previous values:

• CPI: 0% (+1.9% YoY), +0.4% (+2.0% YoY), -0.4% (+1.6% YoY),-0.2% (+2.0% YoY), +0.4% (+2.5% YoY), -0.1% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.5% (+2.7% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.6% (+2.9% YoY), +0.3% (+2.8% YoY), 0% (+2.9% YoY), -0.3% (+3.4% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), +0.1% (+3.1% YoY), -0.1% (+3.8% YoY), +0.4% (+4.0% YoY), +0.6% (+3.3% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY);
• Core CPI released by the Bank of Canada: -0.1% (+1.6% YoY), +0.4% (+1.7% YoY), 0% (+1.6% YoY), -0.1% (+1.5% YoY), +0.3% (+1.7% YoY), -0.1% (+1.9% YoY), +0.6% (+1.8% YoY), +0.2% (+1.6% YoY), +0.5% (+2.0% YoY), +0.1% (+2.1% YoY), +0.1% (+2, 4% YoY), -0.5% (+2.6% YoY), +0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.3% (+2.7% YoY), -0.1% (+2.8% YoY), +0.1% (+3.3% YoY), +0.5% (+3.2% YoY), -0.1% (+3.2% YoY).

The data suggests that inflation continues to decelerate, which prompts the Canadian central bank to consider implementing a dovish monetary policy. If the expected data is worse than the previous values, it will negatively affect the Canadian dollar, but if the data exceeds expectations, it will bolster the currency.

21:45 – NZD: Consumer Price Index for Q4 2024

The Consumer Price Index is a key indicator for assessing inflation, which reflects the retail price movements for a group of goods and services comprising the consumer basket. A positive reading strengthens the New Zealand dollar, while a negative one weakens it.

Previous values: +0.6% (+2.2% YoY), +0.4% (+3.3% YoY) in Q2 2024, +0.6% (+4.0% YoY) in Q1 2024, +0.5% (+4.7% YoY) in Q4 2023, +1.8% (+5.6% YoY) in Q3 2023, +1.1% (+6.0% YoY) in Q2 2023. Annualized values: +6.7% in Q1 2023, +7.2% in Q4 and Q3 2022, +7.3% in Q2, +6.9% in Q1 2022, +5.9% in Q4 2021, +4.9% in Q3 2021, +3.3% in Q2 2021, +1.5% in Q1 2021.

A relative decline in the indicator readings and a value below the forecast may negatively affect the New Zealand dollar.

Wednesday, January 22

There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released.

Thursday, January 23

There are no important macro statistics scheduled to be released. However, pay attention to the publication (at 13:30 GMT) of weekly data from the US labor market on jobless claims and the publication (at 23:30) of Japan’s national consumer price index.

Friday, January 24

Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision. Bank of Japan Press Conference and Commentary on Monetary Policy

The Bank of Japan will decide on the interest rate. At the moment, the benchmark rate in Japan is 0.25%. The rate will likely remain at the same level. If the rate is cut and returns to negative values, the yen may decline sharply in the currency market, and the Japanese stock market will likely increase. Anyway, a spike in the yen and Asian financial market volatility is expected during this period.

Since February 2016, the Bank of Japan has kept the deposit rate at -0.1% and the 10-year bond yield target around 0%.

During the 19 March meeting, the BoJ made the decision to increase the interest rate by 10 basis points, shifting it from -0.1% to 0% for the first time since 2007, thus concluding the period of negative interest rates that commenced in 2016. Concurrently, the target for long-term JGBs (YCC) was scrapped, although the BoJ intends to maintain the same level of JGB purchases per month without a specific target. On the other hand, the bank will cease the purchase of ETFs and REITs, gradually decrease, and eventually terminate the acquisition of commercial paper and corporate bonds within 12 months.

According to analysts, if the BoJ hints at further rate hikes, the yen will receive significant support.

During the press conference, BoJ governor Kazuo Ueda will comment on the monetary policy. The BoJ continues to adhere to an extra-soft monetary policy. According to former Japanese central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Japan should continue its current soft monetary policy. Markets usually respond prominently to speeches by the BoJ governor. The governor will likely mention the monetary policy again during his speech, leading to increased volatility not only in the yen but also in Asian and global financial markets.

06:00 – JPY: Bank of Japan Press Conference

During the press conference, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, who succeeded Haruhiko Kuroda in April 2023, will comment on the bank’s monetary policy. Despite the bank’s earlier measures to stimulate the Japanese economy, inflation remains low, and production and consumption are falling, which negatively affects export-oriented Japanese manufacturers. Markets usually react noticeably to speeches of the BoJ governor. If he touches on monetary policy during his speech, volatility will rise not only in the yen but also across Asian and global financial markets.

08:30 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the German Economy by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs are important indicators of the business environment and the health of the German economy. These sectors play a significant role in Germany’s GDP. A reading above 50 indicates a positive outlook and bolsters the euro, while a reading below 50 is negative for the euro. Conversely, data worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value will prove to be negative for the euro.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 42.5 in December 2024, 43.0, 43.0, 40.6, 42.4, 43.2, 43.5, 45.4, 42.5, 41.9, 42.5, 45.5, 43.3, 40.8, 39.6, 38.8, 40.6, 43.2, 44.5, 44.7, 46.3, 47.3, 47.1, 46.2, 45.1, 47.8, 49.1, 49.3, 52.0, 54.8, 54.6;
• Services PMI: 51.2 in December 2024, 49.3, 51.6, 50.6, 51.2, 52.5, 53.1, 54.2, 53.2, 50.1, 48.3, 47.7, 45.7, 48.2, 50.3, 52.3, 54.1, 57.2, 56.0, 53.7, 50.9, 50.7, 49.2, 46.1, 46.5, 45.0, 47.7, 49.7, 52.4, 55.0, 57.6, 56.1, 55.8;
• Composite PMI: 48.0 in December 2024, 47.2, 48.6, 47.5, 48.4, 49.1, 50.4, 52.4, 50.6, 47.7, 46.3, 47.0, 47.4, 45.9, 46.4, 48.5, 50.6, 53.9, 54.2, 52.6, 50.7, 49.9, 49.0, 46.3, 45.1, 45.7, 46.9, 48.1, 51.3, 53.7, 54.3, 55.1, 55.6.

09:00 – EUR: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of Eurozone Manufacturing Activity by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The eurozone manufacturing and services PMIs are significant indicators of the European economy state. Readings above 50 are positive and strengthen the euro, while readings below 50 are negative for the currency. If the figures are worse than the forecasted and/or the previous value, the euro will be affected negatively.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.6 in December 2024, 45.2, 46.0, 45.0, 45.8, 45.8, 45.8, 47.3, 45.7, 46.1, 46.5, 46.6, 44.4, 43.1, 47.2, 42.7, 43.4, 44.8, 45.8, 47.3, 48.5, 48.8 in January 2023;
• Services PMI: 51.2 in December 2024, 49.5, 51.6, 51.4, 52.9, 51.9, 52.8, 53.2, 53.3, 51.5, 50.2, 48.4, 48.8, 47.8, 48.7, 50.9, 52.0, 55.1, 56.2, 55.0, 52.7, 50.8 in January 2023;
• Composite PMI: 48.0 in December 2024, 48.3, 50.0, 49.6, 51.0, 50.2, 50.9, 52.2, 51.7, 50.3, 49.2, 47.9, 47.6, 46.5, 47.2, 48.6, 52.8, 54.1, 53.7, 52.0, 50.3, 49.3 in January 2023.

09:30 – GBP: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index of the UK Manufacturing Sector by S&P Global (Preliminary Release)

The manufacturing and services PMIs serve as a vital indicator of the UK economy’s health. The services sector employs the majority of the UK’s working-age population and contributes approximately 75% of GDP. Financial services continue to be the most important part of the services sector. If the data is worse than forecast and the previous value, the British pound will likely experience a short-term but sharp decline. If the data exceeds the forecast and the previous value, it will have a positive impact on the currency. At the same time, a PMI reading above 50 is favorable and strengthens the British pound, while a reading below 50 is negative for the currency.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 48.0, 49.9, 51,5, 52.5, 52.1, 50.9, 51.2, 49.1, 50.3, 47.5, 47.0, 46.2, 44.8, 44.3, 45.3, 46.5, 47.1, 47.8, 47.9, 49.3, 47.0, 45.3, 46.5, 46.2, 48.4;
• Services PMI: 51.1 in December 2024, 50.8, 52.0, 51.4, 53.7, 52.5, 52.1, 52.9, 55.0, 53.1, 53.8, 54.3, 53.4, 49.5, 49.3, 51.5, 53.7, 55.2, 55.9, 52.9, 53.5, 48.7, 49.9, 48.8, 48.8, 50.0, 50.9, 52.6;
• Composite PMI: 50.4 in December 2024, 50.5, 51.8, 49.6, 53.8, 52.8, 52.3, 53.0, 54.1, 52.8, 53.0, 52.9, 52.1, 48.7, 48.5, 50.8, 52.8, 54.0, 54.9, 52.2, 53.1, 48.5 in January 2023.

14:45 – USD: Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index of the US Economy by S&P Global. Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (Preliminary Releases)

The PMIs of the most important US economic sectors, released by S&P Global, are an important gauge of the US economic conditions. A PMI reading above 50 signals bullishness, bolstering the US dollar, whereas a reading below 50 bodes negatively for the greenback.

Previous values:

• Manufacturing PMI: 49.4 in December 2024, 49.7, 48.5, 47.6, 47.9, 49.6, 51.6, 51.3, 50.0, 51.9, 52.2, 50.7, 47.9, 50.0, 49.8, 49.0, 46.3, 48.4, 50.2, 47.3, 46.9, 46.2, 47.7, 50.4, 52.0, 51.5;
• Services PMI: 56.8 in December 2024, 56.1, 55.0, 55.2, 55.7, 55.0, 55.3, 54.8, 51.3, 51.7, 52.3, 52.5, 51.4, 50.6, 50.1, 52.3, 54.4, 54.9, 53.6, 50.6, 46.8, 44.7, 46.2, 47.8, 49.3, 43.7, 47.3, 52.7, 53.4, 55.6;
• Composite PMI: 55.4 in December 2024, 54.9, 54.1, 54.0, 54.6, 54.3, 54.8, 54.5, 51.3, 52.1, 52.5, 52.0, 50.9, 50.7, 50.2, 52.0, 53.2, 54.3, 53.4, 52.3, 50.1, 46.8 in January 2023.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode

• Gold prices are currently in flux thanks to the US Dollar, global trade uncertainties, and geopolitics.
• A softer-than-expected US PPI release caused a temporary jump in Gold prices. 
• The upcoming US CPI release is a key event that could trigger a significant move in Gold prices.

Most Read: Global Market Outlook 2025: Trends, Risks, and Opportunities for Traders

Gold prices continue to sway back and forth as markets weigh a strong US Dollar and growing uncertainties around global trade and geopolitics. On the other end we had a strong U.S. jobs report last week which boosted the dollar, and thus weighed on Gold prices. 

A softer than expected US PPI release today helped Gold jump back toward the 2670/oz handle after hovering in the 2660’s for the majority of the European session. However the print has not really moved the needle when it comes to rate cut expectations, with markets still pricing in a more hawkish Fed in 2025.  

Tomorrow we do have the US CPI release which could prove to be a catalyst for a bigger move. However this will rest on the data with a big deviation from expectations required in order for a major move to occur. 

Markets are expecting a CPI headline print to come in at 2.9% and the MoM to come in at 0.4%. A significant beat of the forecast would likely see US treasury yields surge and thus drag Gold prices lower. There have however been occasions of late where Gold prices have remained resilient in the face of a stronger US Dollar and US data. Any moves after data releases have proved short-lived as we saw today following the PPI print. 

Yesterday news filtered through that Donald Trump’s administration is considering gradually increasing tariffs to avoid causing a sharp rise in inflation, according to sources. I covered the implications of this on the US Dollar as well as an outlook on the US CPI release tomorrow: US Inflation: PPI, CPI Release Dates, DXY Analysis & Market Impact

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Technical Analysis Gold (XAU/USD)

From a technical analysis standpoint, this analysis is a follow up from the technicals last week. Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Analysis: Will Prices Continue to Soar in 2025?

Gold appears poised for another leg higher looking at basic price action on a daily timeframe. 

The precious metal saw a significant pullback yesterday printing a bearish engulfing candle on the daily timeframe. Today however has not resulted in any follow through with the precious metal now on course for a bullish inside bar candle close. 

This would hint at further upside tomorrow with US CPI waiting in the wings. Gold does appear to have found support at the previous swing high around the 2658 handle and this is why from a price action perspective on the daily timeframe I am inclined to believe that we could be set for another push to the upside.

The 14-period RSI also supports this as the 50 level on the RSI has held firm indicating that bullish momentum remains in play.

The question will be whether the precious metal will have enough to break above the psychological 2700/oz handle. 

Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Chart, January 14, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Dropping down to a H1 chart and as you can see below, the red block has been holding prices in a tight $16-$17 range between the 2674 and 2658 handles respectively. 

A one-hour candle close outside of the red block may lead to a breakout in that direction. I would however urge caution especially if the breakout occurs during the CPI release tomorrow.

What we have seen from recent price action is that such moves have failed to gain traction of late, usually reversing in the hours after the news or data release.

Gold (XAU/USD) One-Hour H1 Chart, January 14, 2025

Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)

Support

Resistance

Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

By Laura Matthews and Stefano Rebaudo

(Reuters) -The dollar fell against the euro on Tuesday but was still hovering near its highest level in more than two years as the first of two inflation readings this week provided little assurance the U.S. Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates.

Cooler-than-expected producer prices in December followed last week’s strong jobs report that led investors to scale back bets on rate cuts as potential U.S. tariffs remained in the spotlight.

Investors have been closely watching the economic data to see if it supports the Fed’s cautious stance on rates, with the consumer prices (CPI) report due on Wednesday.

“We’ve already gotten the first inflation print in PPI this morning, and so far, markets are underwhelmed by the undershoot,” said Helen Given, associate director of trading at Monex USA, in Washington DC.

“Though it’s without a doubt a better reading than most traders were expecting, the dollar is now returning to just about where it opened the session.”

Traders are now pricing the first rate cut in September, but less than the 50 basis points the Fed projected in December.

With President-elect Donald Trump set to step back into the White House next week, the focus has been on his policies that analysts expect will boost growth and price pressures.

The threat of tariffs along with fewer Fed rate cuts priced in has lifted Treasury yields and supported the greenback.

However, on Tuesday the market focus returned to the chance that U.S. tariffs may be raised gradually, after a new media report suggesting the U.S. could take a measured approach.

Trump’s Treasury pick Scott Bessent is expected to keep a leash on U.S. deficits and to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, mitigating the expected inflationary impact of the U.S. economic policy.

Brad Bechtel, global head of FX, at Jefferies, said the economic data tells only one part of the story, with Trump’s policies making up a bigger part of it.

“I doubt the market really reprices naturally on just one CPI report tomorrow,” he said. “It’s going to be all eyes on Trump and the new administration. Obviously, the CPI report is important, but one data point is not going to change things.”

The , which measures the U.S. currency versus six other units, slipped 0.04% to 109.37, shy of the 26-month high of 110.17 it reached on Monday. It hit 114.78 in October 2022, its highest since 2002.

Meanwhile, the euro was up 0.39% at $1.0286. It touched $1.0177 on Monday, its lowest level since November 2022.

The single currency dropped more than 6% in 2024 as investors fretted about tariff threats and the monetary policy divergence between the Fed and the European Central Bank.

The British pound, down 0.07% at $1.2194 against the dollar, also touched a 2-1/2-month low versus the euro as concerns about Britain’s fiscal challenges continued to weigh.

The dollar rose 0.37% against the yen to 158.055, with traders bracing for next week’s Bank of Japan policy meeting where markets are pricing in 57% chance of a hike.

Some analysts flagged that the most important forex market battleground right now is the dollar/yuan – where the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is still managing to hold the line even as depreciation pressure intensifies.

The PBOC has unveiled a flurry of measures in recent days to support its weak currency.

The yuan was flat, changing hands at 7.3468 per dollar on Tuesday.

Things started off rather poorly for stocks yesterday but dip buyers managed to salvage something by the end of it all. Tech shares were still the laggard but it certainly wasn’t as bad as could be from the onset. The S&P 500 somehow pulled off a stunning recovery to even close above its 100-day moving average (red line). The key level is seen at 5,822.51 currently.

Throughout the entirety of 2024, the S&P 500 only firmly broke below the key level once. That came during the August market panic and it was a brief one, lasting for only four sessions.

It’s a major technical level in terms of indicating a more bullish bias for the index. As such, it stands to reason why buyers will be wanting to hang on to that for as much as they can to keep the run going.

At some point, there will be a correction and we might arguably be overdue one. But for now, dip buyers are not throwing in the towel just yet. And they might just get rewarded for that after the Bloomberg report saying Trump’s economic team is exploring options for a less bombastic tariffs approach to begin with.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% on the day, helping to feed a more positive mood ahead of European trading later.

Besides headline risks, we will also have economic data to look forward to in dictating market sentiment this week. US data is back in focus with the CPI report tomorrow. For today, there will be the PPI report to kick things off. And on Thursday, there is the weekly jobless claims and retail sales data to work through.

Other than that, earnings releases are also back in focus and we’ll be kicking things off with the big banks later in the week. Greg highlighted the list in his post here.

The Australian dollar has started the week quietly. In the North American session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6151, up 0.07% at the time of writing.  Earlier, the Australian dollar fell as low as 0.6130, its lowest level since April 2020.

It was another rough week for the Australian dollar, which declined 1.7% last week. The Aussie can’t find its footing and has plunged 10.4% in the past three months.

Strong US nonfarm payrolls sends Aussie tumbling

The week ended with a surprisingly strong US jobs report. In December, the economy added 256 thousand jobs, the most since March 2024. This followed a downwardly revised 212 thousand in November and easily beat the market estimate of 160 thousand. The unemployment rate eased to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in November. Wage growth also ticked lower, from 4% y/y to 3.9% and from 0.4% to 0.3% monthly.

The upshot of the jobs report is that the US labor market remains solid and is cooling slowly. For the Federal Reserve, this means there isn’t much pressure to lower interest rates in the next few months. That will suit Fed policy makers just fine as it awaits Donald Trump, who has pledged tariffs against US trading partners and mass deportations of illegal immigrants. Either of those policies could increase inflation and the Fed will try to get a read of the Trump administration before cutting rates again. The latest Fed forecast calls for only two rate cuts in 2025 but that could change, depending on inflation and the strength of the labor market.

The strong employment numbers boosted the US dollar against most of the majors on Friday and the Australian dollar took it on the chin, falling 0.8%, its worst one-day showing in three weeks. With interest rates likely on hold in the near-term and high tensions in the Middle East, the safe-haven US dollar should remain attractive to investors in the coming months.

AUD/USD Technical

Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.

By Samuel Indyk and Rae Wee

LONDON (Reuters) -The U.S. dollar rose on Monday, driving its peers to multi-year lows, after Friday’s blowout U.S. jobs report underscored the strength of the economy and muddied the outlook for further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

The , which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of currencies, surged to its highest in more than two years on Monday to peak at 110.17, extending the recent rally.

Friday’s data showed U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, leaving traders heavily scaling back bets of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Markets were now no longer fully pricing in even one rate cut from the Fed in 2025, down from roughly two quarter-point cuts priced at the start of the year.

With Wednesday’s reading on U.S. inflation up next, any upside surprise could further close the door on future easing. A slew of Fed officials are also due to speak this week.

“If you look back at the last year there were worries and signs that there were cracks in the labour market emerging, but they seem to have been fully plastered, not just papered over,” said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura.

“The U.S. economy is resilient enough to justify a strong dollar and justify relatively higher rates.”

Adding to expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle is the view that President-elect Donald Trump’s plans for hefty import tariffs, tax cuts and immigration restrictions could stoke inflation. He returns to the White House in a week.

The euro hit its weakest level against the dollar since November 2022 at $1.0177, while sterling was one of the biggest losers, sliding as much as 0.7% to a 14-month low of $1.21.

The pound has been under pressure from concerns over rising borrowing costs and growing unease over Britain’s finances. It tumbled 1.8% last week.

“The overriding view remains that the UK government will probably be forced to announce spending cuts on 26 March,” said Chris Turner, global head of markets at ING.

“This will feed into a tighter fiscal/looser monetary/weaker sterling narrative.”

Elsewhere, the Australian dollar sank to its weakest since April 2020 at $0.6131. The New Zealand dollar last traded at $0.5544, languishing near a more than two-year low.

BEIJING STEPS IN

The yuan meanwhile bucked the global trend and rose slightly on Monday after Beijing stepped up efforts to defend the weakening currency by relaxing rules to allow more offshore borrowing and sending verbal warnings.

The rose 0.1% to 7.3576 per dollar.

Monday’s moves by the People’s Bank of China follow its suspension on Friday of treasury bond purchases, which briefly lifted yields and spurred speculation it is stepping up defence of the yuan.

“The PBOC is doing whatever it takes to maintain RMB stability,” said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC.

The Chinese currency has come under renewed pressure in part due to investors’ disappointment over the lack of further stimulus from Beijing to shore up its struggling economy.

Elsewhere, the yen similarly rose 0.2% to 157.37. The yen’s decline was mitigated by news that Bank of Japan policymakers could raise their inflation forecast at a policy meeting this month as a prelude to hiking rates again.

2025.01.13 2025.01.13
Zcash Price Forecast & Predictions for 2025, 2026, 2027-2030 and Beyond

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

The popularity of cryptocurrencies is on the rise despite regulatory restrictions. Apart from well-known digital assets such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Litecoin, there are others attracting investors’ attention. One of them is ZEC, which has great potential to be profitable in the long run.

Zcash is a popular digital token known for its strong privacy features. It was created on October 28, 2016, and operates using blockchain technology with open-source code. With a market capitalization of $238.5 million and a maximum total supply of 21 million coins, Zcash is considered a promising digital asset.

Although Zcash is based on the Bitcoin framework, its value differs significantly. The BTC price exceeds $69,000, while the ZEC coin is valued at just above $25.

Highlights and Key Points

• As of 14.01.2025, the price of a ZCash coin is $49.47;
• ZCash will likely trade around $25 – $30 after April 2024 and may reach around $65 by the end of the year;
• In 2025, ZCash will reach the average price of $70, indicating bullish movement;
• By 2030, the token will breach $300, settling at $360.90;
• The key advantages of Zcash are low-rate transactions, the anonymity of users and transactions, the possibility of disclosing payment data to a third party, transaction expiration, and multiple signatures for transactions;
• The main factor in the development of ZEC is privacy. The cryptocurrency demonstrates a high degree of confidentiality, which distinguishes it from most digital assets.
• ZECUSD: the wave analysis shows the ZECUSD pair may drop in an impulse wave to the previous low. One may open short trades at the current level with the target of 40.94.

Zcash Price Today

ZEC’s price today, 14.01.2025, is $49.47.

Weekly Elliott Wave ZCash Analysis as of 13.01.2025

The daily chart shows the ZECUSD pair’s large correctional structure. A motive wave Y has recently ended as a large triple zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z]. Judging by the initial part, the linking wave X is developing as a double zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y] on the last section of the chart. Wave [W] has ended as a standard zigzag (A)-(B)-(C). The sub-wave [X] is currently unfolding.

The wave [X] is taking the form of a sideways pattern (A)-(B)-(C). The sub-waves (A) and (B), a double zigzag and a standard zigzag, have concluded. The price is projected to decline in a bearish wave (C), which should become an impulse wave 1-2-3-4-5, according to the Elliott wave principle. The price will likely decline to the previous low of 40.94. Notably, the wave (A) has finished at this level.

Weekly ZECUSD Trading Plan:

Sell 47.41, TP 40.94

ZECUSD Elliott wave analysis is presented by an independent analyst, Roman Onegin.

Zcash Price Forecast for 2024 — Experts Predictions

The Zcash price is highly dependent on news and many other factors, such as the use of cryptocurrencies in various fields or regulatory decisions. Therefore, it is quite challenging to predict the value of the coin. The predictions below will allow you to determine whether Zcash is expected to grow in the second half of 2024 or whether its price will fall to its lows.

Сhangelly

Price range in 2024: $24.37 – $28.06 (as for August 6, 2024)

According to Сhangelly, Zcash will decline in 2024. In the fall, the price is expected to recover slightly upwards, but in December it will drop to $25.78. The forecast projects the highest price going down to $26.64, while the lowest price will likely drop to $25.10, suggesting a bearish outlook.

PricePrediction

Price range in 2024: $28.42 – $38.22 (as for August 6, 2024)

PricePrediction projects Zcash to increase. The asset will grow steadily between August and December, reaching an average price of $35.01 at the end of the year. The lowest price will mostly be above $30, and the maximum price will reach above $38.

DigitalCoinPrice

Price range in 2024: $25.01 – $64.78 (as for August 6, 2024)

DigitalCoinPrice experts, after the questionably flat August (with the price freezing on $30.09), predict a sideways movement and high volatility for ZEC quotes. The lowest price will stand above $25, and the highest price will remain above $63 until the year-end. The average price will range between $29.30 and $51.13.

CoinDataFlow

Price range in 2024: $27.15 – $53.45 (as for August 6, 2024)

The CoinDataFlow forecast is quite optimistic. According to it, the ZEC coin in 2024 will be on a decline until September, entering an upward trend afterwards. At the end of November and in the beginning of December a new decline is predicted, but the price will quickly correct upwards and reach a new annual maximum of $53.45 by the year-end.

Zcash Technical Analysis

A weekly time frame shows the entire history of Zcash quotes since 2016.

At the very beginning, the price skyrocketed and then dropped. Afterward, the pair moved more steadily. A corrective trend has been forming for a long time and may end soon. 

Let’s assess the price movement on the daily and 4-hour charts to conduct a comprehensive technical analysis. The use of additional tools and indicators will also be helpful:

ZECUSD Analysis For Next Three Months

Let’s examine the chart markup on the 4-hour time frame.

The chart shows the final part of the emerging corrective pattern. A large triple zigzag [W]-[X]-[Y]-[X]-[Z] is underway. The chart reveals the final part of this pattern. Its three waves [W]-[X]-[Y] are probably completed. The motive wave [Y] is a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y)-(X)-(Z).

The second linking wave [X] is forming as a double zigzag (W)-(X)-(Y). Its two parts, sub-waves (W) and (X), have been finished. The wave (Y) is developing.

The motive wave (Y) is expected to continue towards 49.98 as a zigzag during this month. In the next two months, the price may decline towards 24.04 within the initial part of the wave [Z], sub-waves (W) and (X).

Long-Term ZEC Technical Analysis for 2024

Let’s analyze the price movement in more detail on the 4-hour time frame.

The motive wave (Y), the final part of the linking wave [X], is underway. In the short term, the price may fall during a correction B to 27.18, retracing 38.2% of the impulse wave A. The price may start to rise at 27.18 within the impulse sub-wave C towards 48.91. At this level, the wave [X] will retrace 50% of the previous wave [Y] according to Fibonacci lines.

From the beginning of September, the initial part of the wave (W), the first motive wave within the large wave [Z], will unfold. The price may fall in the bearish impulse within the sub-wave A. By the end of the month, the quotes may decrease to 33.27. The price may drop further in October as impulse wave C will be underway. Its end is expected near 20.41. In the last week of October, the price may slightly grow to 27.41 within the sub-wave (X).

In the first half of November, the bearish wave (Y), the final one within the wave [Z], may develop. The price may collapse to 6.19 within this wave. At this mark, the wave [Z] will retrace 61.8% of the wave [Y] according to the Fibonacci lines, as shown on the daily time frame.

In the second half of November and in December, the initial part of a new bullish impulse, including sub-waves (1), (2) and the beginning of sub-wave (3), will form. The price may rise to 26.84.

Long-Term Trading Plan for ZECUSD

Let’s make a trading plan for three months and to the end of the year based on the conducted analysis:

• Consider long trades after August 10, when correction B is finished. The price will grow within the impulse C to 48.91 until the end of the month.
• In September, the quotes will slide within the wave A. Thus, consider short trades with the target at 33.27.
• In October, short trades can be considered. The zigzag pattern will continue towards 20.41.

For long-term trading, consider long trades until the end of August. Consider short trades from the beginning of September until mid-November, with the target at the end of the motive wave [Z]. The trend may reverse at 6.19. If confirmed, one may consider long trades at the end of the year.

Zcash Price Prediction 2025

Making long-term forecasts is a challenging task. Nevertheless, several platforms offered their outlooks for the ZEC exchange rate in 2025.

Сhangelly

Price range in 2025: $26.66 – $63.90 (as for August 6, 2024)

Сhangelly’s analysts provide an optimistic forecast for the Zcash price. In 2025, the asset will rise steadily every month without corrections. The average price will grow from $30.17 to $53.42, and the highest one will reach above $63.

PricePrediction

Price range in 2025: $33.61 – $59.26 (as for August 6, 2024)

PricePrediction experts offer a more moderate outlook. However, they still expect stable monthly growth. The yearly highest trade will reach $59.26, and the average price will grow to $50.37 from $36.76 in 12 months.

DigitalCoinPrice

Price range in 2025: $63.21 – $78.03 (as for August 6, 2024)

According to DigitalCoinPrice, the price of ZEC will decline in 2025 and reach $68.89 by the beginning of 2026. Experts note high volatility, with strong drops expected in March, May and July, while significant price hikes are anticipated in June and November.

CoinDataFlow

Price range in 2025: $47.94 – $143.83 (as for August 6, 2024)

According to CoinDataFlow, ZEC is expected to showcase a strong bullish trend. The yearly high will exceed $143. Meanwhile, the lowest price will trade above $47. Such a spread indicates the asset’s high volatility, which will certainly affect future performance.

Expert Analysis for ZEC Price in 2026

Let’s examine analyst forecasts for 2026.

Сhangelly

Price range in 2026: $53.95 – $90.25 (as for August 6, 2024)

Сhangelly analysts believe that the ZEC coin will start the year with an average price of $55.56. During the year, the average price will rise to $79.15. The yearly high will trade at $90.25. This indicates a strong bullish trend that started in 2024.

PricePrediction

Price range in 2026: $47.86 – $84.98 (as for August 6, 2024)

According to PricePrediction, the price of Zcash will reach $84.98 in 2026. They predict stable price movement without corrections and slowing down.

DigitalCoinPrice

Price range in 2026: $87.33 – $109.29 (as for August 6, 2024)

According to DigitalCoinPrice analysts, Zcash will experience high volatility in 2026. The price will rise and fall several times throughout the year. The average price is expected to fall to $89.91 in March and jump sharply to $103.03 in August. However, the general trend is bearish. In December, the price will be lower than in January.

CoinDataFlow

Price range in 2026: $21.19 – $93.79 (as for August 6, 2024)

CoinDataFlow anticipates the Zcash value to decrease in 2026. The highest price will hit $93.79. The asset is expected to rapidly decline due to the volatility in 2025. At the same time, the projected range suggests that Zcash will remain unstable.

Recent Price History of ZEC

The chart below shows the real-time ZECUSD price movement. It is essential to evaluate historical data to make forecasts as accurate as possible.

The development of Zcash dates back to the creation of ZeroCash cryptographic protocol, which was supposed to become a supplement to Bitcoin. However, its modification resulted in the launch of a separate cryptocurrency Zcash. 

Zcash is the first truly anonymous cryptocurrency. This allowed its price to rise to $6,000 at launch. However, later, it declined significantly. Over the years, the price of the ZEC coin has ranged from a few US dollars to several hundred US dollars.

Changes in the ZEC exchange rate strongly depend on news not only about the token itself but about cryptocurrencies in general. Events such as blockchain updates or new partnerships can lead to price spikes. For instance, when JPMorgan agreed to integrate privacy technology into the blockchain platform, the coin price surged. Additionally, the halving event in 2020, which reduced the mining speed of new coins, also significantly impacted the price.

Since the beginning of 2021, the Zcash exchange rate has grown, reaching the high of $369.31 on the back of the Dogecoin news. However, the rate later fell due to the ban on cryptocurrencies in China. A new uptrend began after Zcash’s management announced plans to develop the token, including the transition to a proof-of-stake consensus mechanism.

According to the Elliott wave analysis, in 2022, Zcash started to trade within a bearish corrective trend, which is still forming today. The trend takes the complex shape of a triple zigzag. The multi-year pattern will likely end in November.

Zcash Price Predictions 2027–2030

Although many analysts make long-term ZEC predictions, consider that they are approximate. As ZEC is one of the most highly volatile crypto assets, it is very difficult to predict its price accurately.

Changelly

Сhangelly experts remain confident in the bullish movement of ZEC prices. By the end of 2027, the average price of the coin will exceed $90. In 2030, it will trade above $300.

PricePrediction

PricePrediction is also confident in Zcash’s growth. The token will reach $377.91 in 2030.

DigitalCoinPrice

DigitalCoinPrice analysts believe that despite the pessimistic sentiment of 2025–2026, Zcash appreciation is possible. By early 2027, the average price will reach $127.74, and by 2030, it will hover near $212.93. The 2030 highest price is expected to trade at $218.45, and the lowest one — at $198.14.

CoinDataFlow

According to CoinDataFlow‘s forecast, the ZEC rate will decline again in 2027. In 2028, Zcash is expected to increase, with the lowest price surging from $28.66 to $43.74 and the highest price exceeding the $130 mark. In 2029, the forecasts are even bolder. The asset will trade in the range of $114.38 – $311.71. However, in 2030, Zcash will sharply depreciate. The price will trade in the range of $46 – $155. The coin’s high volatility does not allow analysts to be sure that Zcash can be a good investment.

Long-term Zcash Price Prediction for 2030–2050

Is Zcash a good long-term investment? Since the crypto industry is quite young and highly dependent on the actions of governments trying to regulate the market, the number of such forecasts is extremely small.

Analysts’ opinions regarding the ZEC rate in the next 20–30 years differ greatly. The Zcash price forecast is constantly changing due to the latest news. In 2024, a potential BTC halving could indirectly affect the ZEC price. It is difficult to predict how high Zcash will grow, but many believe that the coin holds significant potential.

Zcash Price Prediction for 2030s

Optimistic forecasts suggest that ZEC will continue its bullish trend, reaching $1012 – $1062, according to Changelly and PricePrediction. The more moderate forecasts assume growth up to $520 – $586.

Zcash Price Prediction for 2040s

Changelly and PricePrediction are still optimistic. According to their forecasts, ZEC will trade between $11 000 and $18 000 in 2040. At the same time, PricePrediction believes that the asset will exceed $20 000 at the highest point. However, this level is not a limit.

Zcash Price Prediction for 2050s 

In 2050, the asset will cross the $20,000 mark. According to PricePrediction, the average price of the asset will reach $26 445.24. Changelly’s prediction is more modest. According to them, the average price will be estimated at $21 874.04. However, it is very difficult to predict the price movement of cryptocurrency for such a long period of time due to the volatile nature of the asset. Therefore, these predictions should be regarded as approximate.

Zcash: What Is Inside?

Zcash or ZEC is a cryptocurrency built on a decentralized blockchain that includes open-source code. That is its main similarity with Bitcoin. Besides, both cryptocurrencies have a limited supply of 21 million coins.

However, ZEC, as a privacy coin, takes further steps to protect its users. The system was developed to provide users and their transactions with anonymity. ZEC increases privacy by applying zero-knowledge proofs or zk-SNARKs. It allows users to validate transactions without disclosure of information that could affect the user’s privacy. At the same time, the ZEC cryptocurrency allows users to share addresses and transaction data to comply with audits and other regulations. According to the developers, ZEC is based on a strong scientific and technological base.

ZEC addresses are divided into two types: 

1. Z-addresses — private;
2. T-addresses — transparent.

You can transfer funds between both types of addresses, as they are interconnected. There are a total of four types of transactions between them. The only requirement is to be aware of the privacy principles and their implications.

The key advantages of Zcash include low interest rates, user and transaction anonymity, the ability to disclose payment data to a third party, limited validity of transactions, and multiple signatures for them. Privacy is the main factor in the development of ZEC. The asset demonstrates a high degree of privacy, which distinguishes it from most digital assets. Nevertheless, in terms of value, Zcash coin is far from reaching the same level as BTC.

Conclusion: is Zcash Worth Buying?

Despite mixed Zcash price predictions, investing in this token is still a good decision. Although this token is dependent on Bitcoin, which makes it difficult to predict its rate, the coin still acts as the leading cryptocurrency in terms of privacy. This means that Zcash is unlikely to cease to exist.

Currently, everyone is monitoring the Bitcoin price and the halving results. Looking at the short-term analysis, you may notice that there are signals for a possible buy. However, if you are a beginner trader, you should postpone trading this coin until the second half of 2024.

There are a huge number of ZEC rate predictions on the Internet. However, you should not completely rely on them. Use the LiteFinance demo account, which provides real market conditions and the ability to trade without risking your capital. If you have not tried trading on a demo account before entering the real market, there is a risk of losing your investment despite analysts’ recommendations.

Price chart of ZECUSD in real time mode

2025.01.13 2025.01.13
EURUSD Forecast & Predictions for 2025, 2026–2027, and Beyond

Jana Kanehttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/jana-kane/

The EURUSD is one of the major and most traded currency pairs in the Forex market. Traders analyze its future price not only for trading purposes but also to gauge the economic conditions of the EU and the US, along with the global market sentiment.

Since the pair is widely traded, predicting its exchange rate from a long-term investment perspective can be challenging. The EURUSD exchange rate movement is influenced by interest rate differentials, inflation, unemployment rates, trade, and capital flows. At the same time, much of the pricing is related to unforeseen event risks and market sentiment changes. With that in mind, let’s turn our attention to a detailed analysis of the EURUSD exchange rate.

Highlights and Key Points

• In the short term, the pair may correct to the support levels near 1.1107 and 1.1125. If the rate remains above these supports, EURUSD quotes will likely start increasing again.
• In the medium term, one may consider long positions on the correction at the September low of 1.1000, as well as at the Ichimoku cloud, which is pointing to an uptrend.
• The long-term trend is upward. Therefore, the rate is expected to soar until the end of 2024. The growth target is the 2023 high in the area of 1.1275. If the price consolidates above this level, the uptrend may continue to 1.1495.
• LongForecast and PandaForecast analysts believe that the price may keep growing in 2024 and 2025.
• According to long-term forecasts for 2026–2027, the euro is projected to embark on a downward trajectory. The single currency will likely decrease to 1.0250–1.0300 by the end of 2027. Notably, these forecasts may be adjusted over time, depending on economic developments.
• When trading the EURUSD pair, it is essential to closely monitor the economic reports of both the EU and the US. The decisions of the ECB and the Fed regarding interest rates, along with the rhetoric of central bank representatives, can have a significant impact on the balance between buyers and sellers.
• Significant political events, including the US presidential election, may trigger a temporary increase in the EURUSD volatility.
• Historical data indicates that the currency pair’s price tends to decline during periods of market turbulence and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Due to its high liquidity, the EURUSD currency pair is an optimal instrument for trading.
• Investing in the EURUSD pair will be profitable once the pair breaches and consolidates above the key resistance of 1.1275. In this scenario, one may consider long-term purchases with the initial target of 1.1495.
• EURUSD: Technical analysis suggests the euro is maintaining its medium-term downtrend. Last week, the price reached the target near the January low. One may consider short trades during corrections.

EURUSD Characteristic Features

The EURUSD is a major currency pair on Forex, known for its high liquidity. This is not a surprise as it includes the world’s two major reserve currencies. Most Forex trades are made in EURUSD, comprising about 20% of the total volume.

The EURUSD rate serves as an indicator that compares the US and EU economies. If the US economy steadily grows and the EU faces problems, the rate of the euro against the US dollar may drop. Conversely, if America’s growth rate declines and the eurozone thrives, the EURUSD will increase.

 EURUSD key features:

• Trading hours on Forex. The EURUSD pair is traded around the clock from Monday to Friday, with the highest activity occurring during the European and American sessions when trading volumes and rate movements are the most significant.
• Volatility. The EURUSD pair is characterized by medium volatility. The asset can move by 100 pips and more during important news releases. The exchange rate performance analysis shows that the average daily EURUSD volatility is about 80 pips.
• Spread is one of the main advantages of the EURUSD pair. Due to the highest liquidity, the EURUSD spread is the lowest. Typically, it does not exceed one pip on popular ECN accounts.

Fundamental Factors Affecting the EURUSD Price in 2024

In 2024, the EUR/USD currency pair was trading in a narrow range of 1.0600–1.1210. At the beginning of the year, the pair’s quotes declined against investors’ expectations that the European Central Bank would be the first to reduce interest rates. Indeed, the ECB cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% from 4.50% on June 6. In the US, the Fed began its monetary expansion cycle later on September 18. The interest rate was lowered to 5.0% from 5.50%. Below is the ECB’s interest rate path.

Another factor contributing to a bearish scenario was the sharp decline in the eurozone GDP growth rate. As illustrated in the screenshot below, economic growth rates in quarterly terms began to decline from Q2 2022 and reached a low of 0.0% in Q3 2023. The growth rate subsequently remained below 1% per quarter, reaching record lows. These developments reinforced the bearish outlook for the EURUSD pair, as market participants feared a potential recession in the EU.

By midyear, the situation had evolved. The eurozone saw a decline in inflation, which approached the ECB’s forecasts. From an annualized rate of 2.8% as of January 2024, inflation declined to 2.2% by August 2024. In response to this development, the ECB opted to implement a more accommodative monetary policy, aiming to bolster economic activity. Investors’ expectations regarding the ECB’s strategy reinforced the euro’s growth trajectory, with the currency pair showing an upward trend since April 2024.

However, as the autumn approached, the growth of the EU economy once again gave rise to intense debate among investors. In September, business activity in the private sector declined significantly in the eurozone’s largest economies. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI plummeted sharply, while in France, the Services PMI saw a notable plunge.

The HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI, as reported by S&P Global, fell more than expected to 47.2, representing the lowest reading in seven months. In France, the Composite PMI slumped to 47.4 from 53.1, which was significantly below the Bloomberg forecast of 51.5.

Following the publication of the data, the euro dropped to 1.1106, with EU government bonds rising and the yield on 10-year German Bunds falling by four basis points.

The latest economic data indicate that the slowdown in the currency bloc is becoming increasingly evident, following a period of weaker growth earlier in the year. Lower interest rates can provide a boost to the economy. In September, the ECB cut rates for the second time in a year, and a further reduction is likely. However, many of the issues are structural in nature and require more comprehensive solutions.

Germany has been identified as the point of vulnerability. The Bundesbank has indicated that a recession was imminent, citing adverse developments pertaining to the automotive industry. In a disappointing turn of events for investors, Mercedes-Benz Group AG followed BMW in cutting its profit forecast. Meanwhile, Volkswagen AG voiced concerns that low demand could result in the closure of its production plants in Germany. The HCOB Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, reached a one-year low, while the services sector sagged significantly. Bloomberg analysts anticipate that the German economy will resume growth towards the end of the year.

France is experiencing a similar trend, with the services sector, which previously received an unexpectedly strong boost from the Olympic Games in Paris, now facing a sharp decline. The index has fallen to 48.3 from 55, below the projected level of 53.1.

The Bank of France projects a 0.8% growth rate for the economy this year, although this projection is subject to potential fluctuations due to the prevailing political uncertainty following the recent parliamentary elections. Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government faces significant challenges in reducing the budget deficit, which has already exceeded the 3% of GDP threshold set by the European Union.

France has joined the ranks of eurozone economies experiencing severe growth difficulties. This supports the assumption that the surge in the services sector in August was directly attributable to the Olympics.

In light of these circumstances, the European currency will likely show constrained growth. In September, the EURUSD pair saw a significant increase due to market expectations of a notable reduction in interest rates in the US. The Federal Reserve reduced the interest rate by 50 basis points in a single bold move. In the coming period, markets will monitor developments in monetary policy in the US and the EU. Notably, the Fed’s higher interest rate of 5.00% against the ECB’s key rate of 3.65% creates solid grounds for purchasing the US dollar.

The EURUSD price is also influenced by global geopolitical developments. Due to various military conflicts, for example, in the Middle East, investors tend to favor safe-haven assets, including the US dollar. This results in a decline in EURUSD quotes.

Therefore, the euro may rise moderately against the greenback to the 2023 high of 1.1275. However, growth beyond this level is uncertain and will depend on the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and political factors.

EURUSD Current Rate

The current EURUSD exchange rate is $1.02205.

Euro/dollar weekly price forecast as of 13.01.2025

Last week, the euro continued to trade in a medium-term downtrend after testing the resistance (A) 1.0426 – 1.0408. As a result, the price has plunged below the early January low. The next bearish target is Target Zone 6, 1.0174 – 1.0155.

Consider short trades on a correction at the resistance (A) 1.0415 – 1.0397 and resistance (B) 1.0516 – 1.0489. Last week’s low will be the main bearish target.

The asset should pierce and consolidate above the 1.0516 level to allow traders to open long positions and reverse the medium-term downtrend. In this case, the nearest bullish target will be the 1.0599 – 1.0581 area.

EURUSD trading ideas for the week:

Sell at resistance (A) 1.0415 – 1.0397. TakeProfit: 1.0313, 1.0213. StopLoss: 1.0450.

Technical analysis based on margin zones methodology is presented by an independent analyst, Alex Rodionov.

EURUSD Rate Forecast for 2024 – Experts Predictions

The majority of analysts concur that the EURUSD exchange rate will continue to appreciate throughout the remainder of 2024, reaching fresh yearly highs. Moderate growth with minor corrections is expected. However, WalletInvestor experts have a more pessimistic outlook, projecting a slight decline in quotes to 1.1040.

Long Forecast

Price range in 2024: $1.0950–$1.1610 (as of 30.09.2024).

LongForecast analysts assume that the long-term uptrend will continue. At the end of 2024, the price will reach 1.1440. However, the pair may correct to the level of 1.0950.

PandaForecast

Price range in 2024: $1.0689–$1.1698 (as of 30.09.2024).

Analysts at PandaForecast also expect the EURUSD rate to continue rising until the end of 2024. By December, the average price will reach 1.1387. Minor corrections within the bullish trend are possible. The maximum possible price is 1.1698 and the minimum price is 1.1024.

WalletInvestor

Price range in 2024: $1.0990–$1.1080 (as of 30.09.2024).

Analysts at WalletInvestor offer a “neutral-negative” outlook for the EURUSD pair. They project that the pair will decline towards 1.1040 by the end of the year without significant price fluctuations.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Let’s examine the daily chart of the EUR/USD pair to get an insight into the general picture of the market. The analysis takes into account the key support and resistance levels and employs the Pivot Point indicator and moving averages.

From a technical analysis perspective, the EURUSD currency pair is trading in a long-term uptrend, as evidenced by the current price of 1.1161, which is above the EMA 190. In addition, the pair is trading above EMA 21, confirming a short-term uptrend.

During the growth observed in September, the price exceeded the key high near 1.1202. Thus, the price highs and lows are increasing.

Let’s plot the Bull Power and RSI (14) indicators to the chart and identify the key support and resistance levels.

The Bull Power indicator is in the green zone, which confirms the strength of buyers. The RSI (14) is in the neutral zone, indicating both buying and selling opportunities. The nearest key support level is the September 11 low of 1.1000.

Based on the current market conditions, it is projected that if the price continues to rise and consolidates above 1.1200, the uptrend may continue towards 1.1450. If bears manage to keep the price below 1.1200, the pair may begin to decline and break through 1.1000. In this case, the uptrend will reverse. In this scenario, consider selling the pair until it reaches the next support level in the area of 1.0780.

EURUSD Analysis For Next Three Months

Let’s assess the daily chart of the EURUSD pair using the Ichimoku indicator.

The pair is trading above the green Ichimoku cloud, which indicates a long-term upward trend. The expansion of the Ichimoku cloud may indicate the continuation of the upward movement over the next three months. Additionally, the green cloud represents a bullish trend boundary.

The Tenkan line is trending upward, suggesting a short-term uptrend. The price is moving above the line. Based on the latest data, the growth will likely continue over the next few days. However, there is a strong resistance level at 1.1200, which has yet to be surpassed. It would be better to refrain from long trades near the resistance and wait until the price breaks through this level and consolidates above it before making purchases.

In addition, the Kijun line is directed upwards, indicating a medium-term uptrend. The price is currently above the line. The upward trajectory may continue for a few weeks, with 1.1200 representing a significant resistance level.

Both the Tenkan and Kijun lines serve as dynamic support levels. Consequently, a correction to these lines will allow traders to buy the euro with a target at the nearest resistance of 1.1200. Should the quotes break through the Kijun line from above and consolidate below this line, the price may face a downward correction over the next several weeks. In this case, the bearish target will be within the green Ichimoku cloud.

Long-Term EURUSD Technical Analysis for 2024–2025

In order to conduct a long-term technical analysis, it would be advisable to examine the weekly chart and apply the Ichimoku indicator, in addition to key support and resistance levels.

Following a significant decline that concluded in September 2022, the trading instrument entered a correction phase. As part of the correction in January-March 2023, the price tested the Ichimoku cloud and subsequently broke through it from below. As a result, the pair embarked on an upward trajectory.

In the fall of 2023, the price corrected to the uptrend boundary. The pair has yet to pierce it. Consequently, growth is projected to continue towards the July 2023 high near 1.1275.

In recent months, the Ichimoku indicator has formed a red cloud, which indicates a potential change in trend towards a downtrend. However, in July-August 2024, the price began to rise, and the green cloud began to emerge.

Therefore, the indicator confirms that the EURUSD pair is trading in a global uptrend and suggests the potential for continued growth. The next bullish target is 1.1275. Should the price remain above this level, the growth will likely continue towards 1.1495.

If the quotes remain below the key resistance level of 1.1275, bears may start a downward correction. In this scenario, the potential downside target would be the Ichimoku cloud, as well as support levels of 1.0610 and 1.0450.

It is essential to maintain the 1.1275 level and form a reversal Price Action pattern to initiate short trades. The sales target for the end of the year is 1.0862.

Long-Term Trading Plan for EURUSD

Let’s draw up a long-term trading plan for the EURUSD pair.

• According to the conducted technical analysis, the EUR/USD pair is maintaining an uptrend.
• During the short-term uptrend, consider buying the euro at the nearest support levels of 1.1140 and 1.1108 with the target at 1.1200.
• When planning to trade over the next three months, an optimal strategy would be to await a substantial market correction to the 1.0996 or 1.0908 levels. In this scenario, consider purchasing the euro at these levels with a take-profit order set at 1.1275.
• The long-term trading plan suggests that the uptrend will continue with a target at the January 2022 high near 1.1495. Thus, bulls should push the price above the resistance level of 1.1275 to reach the projected target.
• In the long term, if the pair breaches 1.1495, it may soar to 1.1688. Should the price consolidate above 1.1688, one may consider long trades until the rate hits the level of 1.1900, representing the maximum growth target for the next 12 months. If so, the key resistance levels will offer support levels, at which long positions can be considered.
• The uptrend boundary is at the level of 1.0450. However, should the red Ichimoku cloud begin to form and the price break through it from above, the pair may continue to decline. In this scenario, long trades are out of consideration. Short trades may be opened with a target of 1.0610.

When engaging in long-term trading, it is essential to closely monitor economic data and political events in the United States. Remember that long-term forecasts are subject to change and may be revisited due to various factors.

EURUSD Rate Forecast for 2025 – Experts Predictions

The prevailing view among analysts is that the EURUSD exchange rate will strengthen in 2025. The most optimistic forecast indicates that the pair will close the year at 1.2133. However, despite anticipating growth, Long Forecast experts do not discount the possibility of a correction to 1.1260 by the end of 2025. Meanwhile, analysts at WalletInvestor project a decline to 1.0770.

Long Forecast

Price range in 2025: $1.0960–$1.1790 (as of 30.09.2024).

According to LongForecast, the EUR/USD rate is projected to reach new highs in 2025, with the first one touching in February near the level of 1.1510. Subsequently, a prolonged downward correction will start, and the price will likely reach 1.1130 in June. The growth will continue, and the quotes will hit another high in the area of 1.1700 in autumn. A correction will follow. The price is expected to end the year at 1.1260.

Despite significant drawdowns, investors will likely remain bullish. Against this backdrop, it is better to trade in the medium term and hedge positions in case of prolonged drawdowns.

PandaForecast

Price range in 2025: $1.1057–$1.2521 (as of 30.09.2024).

PandaForecast expects the EURUSD price to rise in 2025. The strengthening of the exchange rate will start in January, followed by a strong correction in February. The pair will showcase a robust uptrend in March and surge to 1.2133 by the year-end.

With this in mind, it is favorable to plan long-term trades, as well as to consider intra-week trading. Major corrections are also expected. In April, the price will hit a high of 1.1925 and in May, the low is expected to be around 1.1192.

WalletInvestor

Price range in 2025: $1.0710–$1.1040 (as of 30.09.2024).

The WalletInvestor portal forecasts a gradual decline in the EURUSD exchange rate in 2025. The pair will start the year at 1.1040, gradually declining through the projected period. By the end of the year, the price will reach the 1.0770 level. The monthly volatility will not exceed 1%. These are very insignificant indicators, more related to a global correction than to a pronounced market movement. Against this background, it will be profitable to consider selling the pair in the short term.

Long-term EURUSD Predictions for 2026–2027

Analysts believe that the euro will smoothly decline against the US dollar in 2026–2027. However, experts differ in their opinion about the pace of the projected decline. By December 2027, the EURUSD price is expected to range between 1.0250 and 1.0300.

Long Forecast

Price range in 2026–2027: $1.0140–$1.2420 (as of 30.09.2024).

According to LongForecast analysts, EURUSD quotes are expected to grow in the first half of 2026. Since September, a rapid decline is expected. By the end of the year, the price will reach 1.1450. In 2027, analysts expect a decline. Thus, the rate will be 1.1450 in January and plummet to 1.0300 by December.

WalletInvestor

Price range in 2026–2027: $1.0160–$1.0770 (as of 30.09.2024).

WalletInvestor estimates that in 2026, the EURUSD pair will remain relatively stable within a narrow range of 1.0460–1.0710. While a clear trend is not anticipated, the price may decline to 1.0500 by the end of the year. Given these conditions, it would be advantageous to open positions at the range boundaries. At the upper boundary, it would be advisable to consider selling, while long trades can be considered at the lower boundary.

In 2027, the EURUSD market will continue to trade in a sideways trend without significant price swings. The monthly price change is not expected to exceed 1.00%. While unlikely, it is still a possibility. Nonetheless, it would be reasonable to exercise caution with regard to this forecast.

Factors That Can Affect the EURUSD rate

The EURUSD exchange rate is the ratio of the EU and US currencies, the two largest economies in the world. Therefore, significant economic and political news from the EU and the US directly affect the EURUSD exchange rate. These factors of influence are called fundamental. Additionally, there are technical factors. Let’s examine both types in more detail.

Fundamental Factors

There are several important economic indicators for the US and EU. The most significant factors affecting the price of the pair include the following:

• The ECB’s and the Fed’s interest rate changes, GDP growth rates, and inflation indexes (CPI, PPI);
• Unemployment rate, US jobs data, Non-farm payrolls data;
• Industrial production (industrial production index);
• Retail sales, balance of trade, consumer confidence index, indexes of business sentiment (ISM, IFO);
• Speeches by top officials: press conferences with the ECB and Fed heads, and speeches and commentaries from leading EU and US politicians;
• Political events: various government reshuffles, elections, public unrest, internal political instability (e.g., Brexit);
• Force majeure: emergencies, natural disasters, man-made disasters, terrorist attacks, epidemics.

Technical Factors

The most significant technical factors influencing the EURUSD rate are the following:

• Current trend is an essential technical factor. In an uptrend, purchases are preferable; in a downtrend, sales are recommended. In a sideways trend (range), trading in both directions from the boundaries of the price range is appropriate.
• Historical highs and lows, as well as significant support and resistance levels on the price chart, are the key markers for analyzing and forecasting the future movement of the EURUSD pair.
• Various continuation or reversal patterns from classical technical analysis, candlestick patterns, and Price Action patterns.

The EURUSD Pair History

The euro was introduced in 1999 to replace the national currencies of EU countries, such as the German mark, the French franc, and the Italian lira.  Therefore, the euro is affected by macroeconomic statistics of the eurozone and individual EU countries’ performance.

The euro officially entered non-cash circulation on January 1, 1999, and banknotes and coins were brought into use on January 1, 2002. In terms of international settlements, only the US dollar surpasses the European monetary unit, making it the second most popular world reserve currency. When trading started, the exchange rate stood at 1.1800. The pair’s ticker on the currency market is EURUSD.

Since 1999, the EURUSD pair has undergone significant changes. In the first two years, the euro prospects were vague, as the exchange rate fell to the lowest value of 0.8200. After that, it increased over seven years to a record high of 1.6039 in 2008. In the following years, the pair corrected significantly due to the banking crisis and various problems in the eurozone. The asset traded in a bearish trend until April 2015, when it began to recover.

In terms of market sentiment, 2020 was a very representative year. When the first wave of the coronavirus hit in March, the market reacted strongly to the pandemic’s scale and impact. As a result, investors switched to the US dollar as a protective asset, leading to its strengthening. However, the situation changed when Pfizer announced promising vaccine news in early November. Consequently, the need for a safe asset diminished, causing the US dollar to depreciate.

In both cases, the market reaction was obvious, but this is not always the case. When the European Central Bank announced financial support packages in 2022 to combat the effects of the coronavirus, the market reacted positively. Investors believed that the ECB’s efforts to prevent business collapses and job losses were substantial, resulting in a strengthening of the euro.

The EURUSD’s growth in October 2022 was driven by a number of economic and political factors that affected the US dollar and the euro. The Fed has been aggressively raising interest rates in 2022 in an attempt to curb inflation. However, in the fall of 2022, the market began to expect the pace of rate hikes to slow for the first time as there were signs that inflation might be slowing. These expectations weakened the US dollar as investors suggested that the Fed may end the rate hike cycle sooner than previously anticipated. 

Some US macroeconomic data released in 2022 were weaker than expected. For example, employment and GDP data indicated a slowdown in economic growth. This weakened confidence in the US dollar and led to its depreciation against the euro.

The ECB also began raising interest rates to combat high inflation in the eurozone. In 2022, the ECB implemented a series of measures that strengthened the euro. Expectations of further rate hikes in Europe supported the euro’s growth against the US dollar.

Equity and other risk asset markets witnessed moderate optimism in 2022. The improvement in market sentiment has contributed to increased demand for riskier assets such as the euro and reduced demand for safe havens such as the US dollar.

The ECB’s economic measures aimed at supporting the economy and curbing inflation strengthened the single European currency. This appreciation continued until mid-2023, when the asset reached a high of 1.1255.

Despite investors’ hope that the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle would end as early as 2022, the first half of 2023 saw a rate hike to 5.50%. Higher interest rates make the US dollar more attractive to investors as they can get higher yields on their investments in US assets. This led to a strengthened US dollar and, consequently, a decrease in the euro price in the summer of 2023.

The economic performance in the eurozone in 2023 fell short of expectations. Sluggish economic growth, poor inflation control, and low rates of manufacturing activity led to a decline in investor confidence in the euro. For example, declining industrial production and slowing GDP growth indicated weakness in the eurozone economy.

The US economy demonstrated more robust growth compared to the eurozone economy. Strong US macroeconomic indicators, such as high employment and consumption growth, supported the US dollar while the eurozone struggled. This difference in economic outlook contributed to the depreciation of the euro against the US dollar.

Nevertheless, in 2023, the euro exchange rate did not weaken much but went into a downward correction, reaching 1.0460.

The first half of 2024 was marked by low EURUSD volatility. On the one hand, the euro was supported by the measures taken earlier by the ECB and the government to boost the economy. On the other hand, the US economy continued to show solid growth. The Fed interest rate remained at 5.50%, attracting investments in the US dollar.

In the second half of 2024, the EURUSD began to increase steadily on expectations about the reduction of the US Federal Reserve interest rate. The US regulator was delaying this decision for a long time, as inflation turned out to be stubborn. However, prices did start to decline from 3.5% in March to 2.5% in August on a yearly basis, the lowest level for the last three years. US inflation rate on a monthly basis is shown in the screenshot below.

At the meeting on September 18, 2024, the Fed slashed the interest rate by 0.5%, bringing it down to 5.00%. The US dollar responded with a sharp decline, allowing the EURUSD exchange rate to soar. In September, the pair reached its yearly high of 1.1214.

However, prospects for further growth are uncertain due to the fragility of the eurozone economy and weak data on the manufacturing and services sector in Germany and France. In addition, the ECB is expected to cut its interest rate in October. Investors project at least two ECB rate cuts in 2024. All of this may have a negative impact on market sentiment and limit the growth of the EUR/USD exchange rate to the 2023 high of 1.1275.

When making forecasts for EURUSD prices, it is important to pay close attention to political events. For instance, in the period preceding the US presidential elections, the volatility of the EURUSD exchange rate may increase significantly.

Is EURUSD Still a Good Investment?

From a technical analysis standpoint, the pair is still trading in a long-term uptrend. The short-term and medium-term trends are also upward, which continues to make investments in the EURUSD pair a relevant option. Should the euro receive further support, the pair is expected to reach 1.1495 by the end of 2024.

In September, the EURUSD pair approached the key resistance levels, the December 2023 high and the July 2023 high, in the area of 1.1145 and 1.1275, respectively. Notably, these levels have not yet been breached and could potentially act as roadblocks to further growth for the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, purchasing the trading instrument at current prices is a high-risk strategy. It would be better to wait for the quotes to breach these levels before considering new purchases.

Most forecasts indicate that the EUR may increase during the 2024 and 2025 periods. In the most optimistic scenarios, the target price is 1.2133. At the same time, a pessimistic outlook suggests that the growth is expected to continue to 1.1510, followed by a correction to 1.1260. Some experts anticipate a decline in the EURUSD rate.

Prior to making any trading or investment decisions on the EURUSD pair, it is essential to conduct a comprehensive analysis, study professional analytical reviews, and develop an accurate trading plan in accordance with risk and money management rules.

Price chart of EURUSD in real time mode