Author: The Forex Feed

  • German Retail Sales climb 2.5% YoY in November vs. 1.9% expected


    Germany’s Retail Sales fell 0.6% MoM in November after declining 1.5% in October, the official data released by Destatis showed on Wednesday.

    Annually, Retail Sales in the Eurozone’s top economy rose by 2.5% in November versus 1.9% expected and 1.0% in October.

    EUR/USD reaction to the German data

    Mixed German data serves negative for the Euro, driving EUR/USD slightly lower at around 1.0345, flat on the day, as of writing.

    Euro PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   0.00% -0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03%
    EUR -0.00%   -0.03% 0.05% -0.07% 0.02% -0.01% 0.03%
    GBP 0.03% 0.03%   0.10% -0.04% 0.05% 0.02% 0.07%
    JPY -0.05% -0.05% -0.10%   -0.12% -0.04% -0.07% -0.02%
    CAD 0.07% 0.07% 0.04% 0.12%   0.08% 0.06% 0.09%
    AUD -0.02% -0.02% -0.05% 0.04% -0.08%   -0.02% 0.01%
    NZD 0.01% 0.00% -0.02% 0.07% -0.06% 0.02%   0.04%
    CHF -0.03% -0.03% -0.07% 0.02% -0.09% -0.01% -0.04%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

     



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  • Australian Dollar holds steady as US Dollar remains firm ahead of FOMC Minutes


    • The Australian Dollar depreciated as Australia’s trimmed mean fell to an annual 3.2% from 3.5%.
    • Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index increased by 2.3% YoY in November, the highest level recorded since August.
    • The US Dollar appreciated as the 10-year yield on US Treasury bonds rose by over 1% on Tuesday.

    The Australian Dollar (AUD) faced challenges for the second consecutive session against the US Dollar (USD), with the AUD/USD pair holding losses despite stronger-than-expected monthly inflation data released on Wednesday. Traders are now focused on the upcoming FOMC Minutes, scheduled for release later in the day, as well as the US jobs data, including the Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday, for additional insights into policy direction.

    However, the trimmed mean, a closely watched measure of core inflation, fell to an annual 3.2% from 3.5%, edging closer to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target band of 2% to 3%. Traders are currently pricing in a 55% probability that the RBA will lower its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% in February, with a full quarter-point cut expected by April.

    Australia’s monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.3% year-over-year in November, surpassing the market forecast of 2.2% and marking an increase from the 2.1% rise seen in the previous two months. This is the highest reading since August. However, the figure remains within the RBA’s target range of 2–3% for the fourth consecutive month, aided by the ongoing impact of the Energy Bill Relief Fund rebate.

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Tuesday that permits for new construction projects in Australia dropped by 3.6% month-on-month to 14,998 units in November 2024, falling short of market expectations for a 1.0% decline. This downturn followed an upwardly revised 5.2% increase in October, marking the first decrease in three months.

    The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is collaborating with the State Planner to bolster the country’s economy. PBoC official Peng Lifeng announced that the central bank will assist banks in expanding loans under the trade-in initiative.

    Australian Dollar declines due to hawkish shift in Fed’s rate trajectory

    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar’s (USD) performance against six major currencies, holds its position above 108.50 at the time of writing.
    • The US Dollar strengthened as the 10-year yield on US Treasury bonds rose by over 1% in the previous session, currently standing at 4.67%. This spike is a stark reminder of the shifting investor sentiment regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate trajectory.
    • The US ISM Services PMI increased to 54.1 in November, up from 52.1, exceeding the market expectation of 53.3. The Prices Paid Index, which reflects inflation, rose significantly to 64.4 from 58.2, while the Employment Index dipped slightly to 51.4 from 51.5.
    • The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 in December, from 48.4 in November. This reading came in better than the market expectation of 48.4.
    • According to Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic stated on Tuesday that Fed officials should exercise caution with policy decisions due to uneven progress in reducing inflation. Bostic emphasized the need to lean toward keeping interest rates elevated to ensure the achievement of price stability goals.
    • Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin highlighted on Friday that the benchmark policy rate should remain restrictive until there is greater confidence that inflation will return to the 2% target.
    • Fed Governor Adriana Kugler and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly underscored the challenging balancing act facing US central bankers as they aim to slow the pace of monetary easing this year.
    • Traders are cautious regarding President-elect Trump’s economic policies, fearing that tariffs could increase the cost of living. These concerns were compounded by the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) recent projections, which indicated fewer rate cuts in 2025, reflecting caution amid persistent inflationary pressures.

    Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar moves below nine-day EMA toward 0.6200

    AUD/USD trades near 0.6210 on Wednesday, maintaining its bearish outlook as it remains confined within a descending channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats toward the 30 level, signaling a potential intensification of bearish momentum.

    On the downside, the AUD/USD pair may navigate the region around the lower boundary of the descending channel, at the 0.5990 level.

    The AUD/USD pair may test the immediate resistance around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6224, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6239. A further barrier appears around the upper boundary of the descending channel, at 0.6270 level.

    AUD/USD: Daily Chart

    Australian Dollar PRICE Today

    The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

      USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
    USD   -0.06% -0.02% 0.22% -0.06% 0.00% 0.03% -0.00%
    EUR 0.06%   0.04% 0.26% -0.01% 0.06% 0.09% 0.05%
    GBP 0.02% -0.04%   0.26% -0.05% 0.02% 0.05% 0.01%
    JPY -0.22% -0.26% -0.26%   -0.28% -0.21% -0.19% -0.22%
    CAD 0.06% 0.00% 0.05% 0.28%   0.07% 0.10% 0.06%
    AUD -0.01% -0.06% -0.02% 0.21% -0.07%   0.03% -0.01%
    NZD -0.03% -0.09% -0.05% 0.19% -0.10% -0.03%   -0.04%
    CHF 0.00% -0.05% -0.01% 0.22% -0.06% 0.00% 0.04%  

    The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

    Economic Indicator

    FOMC Minutes

    FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.

    Read more.

    Next release: Wed Jan 08, 2025 19:00

    Frequency: Irregular

    Consensus: –

    Previous: –

    Source: Federal Reserve

     



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  • Gold price in India: Rates on January 8


    Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

    The price for Gold stood at 7,303.81 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 7,313.69 it cost on Tuesday.

    The price for Gold decreased to INR 85,189.29 per tola from INR 85,305.47 per tola a day earlier.

    Unit measure Gold Price in INR
    1 Gram 7,303.81
    10 Grams 73,037.31
    Tola 85,189.29
    Troy Ounce 227,184.50

     

    FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

    (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)



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  • WTI rises above $74.00 on larger drop in US crude oil inventories, hopes for China’s demand


    • WTI price gains traction to near $74.15 in Wednesday’s Asian session.
    • US crude oil inventories fell by 4.022 million barrels last week, according to the API. 
    • Oil traders brace for the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday ahead of the US December NFP report. 

    West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $74.15 on Wednesday. The WTI price edges higher amid expected higher Chinese demand and a larger drop in US crude stocks. 

    A large drop in US crude inventories last week provides some support to the WTI. The API weekly report showed crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending January 3 fell by 4.022 million barrels, compared to a decline of 1.442 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would decrease by 250,000 barrels. Furthermore, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflicts could boost the WTI price in the near term. 

    On Tuesday, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s top economic planner, issued a guideline for building a unified national market, breaking down market barriers to boost domestic demand while enhancing openness. The positive development surrounding the Chinese stimulus measure could boost the black gold price as China is the world’s second-largest economy. 

    ”While the market is currently range-bound, it is recording gains on the back of improved demand expectations fuelled by holiday traffic and China’s economic pledges,” Hilal said in a morning note. “However, the primary trend remains bearish.”

    Looking ahead, Oil traders will keep an eye on the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is due later on Wednesday. On Friday, the US employment data for December will be in the spotlight. Economists expect 154,000 new jobs for December, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2% during the same report period. In case of a stronger-than-expecetd outcome, this could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term. 

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     



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  • NZD/USD softens below 0.5650 on stronger US economic data


    • NZD/USD softens to around 0.5635 in Wednesday’s early Asian session. 
    • The stronger US data suggested the Fed is likely to slow the easing cycle. 
    • Investors will monitor how aggressive Trump’s tariff plans could be when he takes office.

    The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses near 0.5635 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The upbeat US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for December suggested that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will likely slow the pace of its easing cycle, supporting the US Dollar (USD). Later on Wednesday, the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be in the spotlight. 

    The services sector activity in the United States accelerated in December. Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that Services PMI increased to 54.1 in December from 52.1 in November. This reading came in stronger than the estimation of 53.3. 

    Meanwhile, US job openings unexpectedly increased in November, although hiring slowed during the month. US JOLTS Job Openings rose to 8.09 million in November versus 7.83 million prior and came in above the market consensus of 7.7 million.

    The reports indicated a generally stable jobs market and a still robust services sector, which might convince the Fed to slow the pace of rate cuts, lifting the Greenback. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the US rate futures market has priced in a 93.5% chance of a pause in rate cuts this month. 

    Investors will monitor how aggressive President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff policies could be when he takes office. Analysts believe that if US tariffs are broadly lower than Trump promised on the campaign trail and aimed only at “critical” sectors, then the outlook for global growth should improve and the USD should weaken. Additionally, the supportive measures from China could boost the Kiwi as China is a major trading partner for New Zealand. 

    New Zealand Dollar FAQs

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

    The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

    Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

    The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

     

     

     

     



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  • Gold surge stalls after JOLTs data, FOMC minutes awaited


    • Gold climbs to $2,664 but faces pressure from a strong US labor market and Trump’s assertive tariff plans.
    • Trump’s unexpected remarks on reclaiming the Panama Canal and imposing tariffs on neighbors bolster the US Dollar.
    • People’s Bank of China boosts gold reserves, signaling increased demand as global economic uncertainties persist.

    Gold price advanced late in the North American session on Tuesday yet retreated from daily highs on solid United States (US) economic data and US President-elect Donald Trump’s press conference remarks. The XAU/USD trades at $2,648, gains 0.50%.

    In the United States, the schedule revealed a strong jobs report amid an increase in job openings, reassuring investors that the labor market is solid. Furthermore, business activity in the services sector improved sharply, weighing on expectations for further easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

    In the meantime, US President-elect Donald Trump crossed the wires, said he would like to take back control of the Panama Canal and reiterated that he would impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This boosted the US Dollar (USD) and capped Gold’s advance.

    Earlier, Bullion rose to a two-day peak of $2,664 after China’s central bank increased its Gold reserves for the second straight month by 300K ounces to 73.3 million, an indication that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) resumed its purchases after a six-month pause.

    US Treasury bond yields remained high, bolstering the Greenback. According to the Fed funds futures interest rate contract at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), investors estimate 51 basis points (bps) of easing or two 25 bps interest rate cuts by the Fed toward the end of the year.

    Ahead this week, the US economic docket will feature the ADP Employment Change, Initial Jobless Claims figures, the Fed’s last meeting minutes and December’s US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

    Daily digest market movers: Gold price climbs amid high US yields, underpinned by PBoC purchases

    • Gold remains pressured as US real yields rise two bps up to 2.28%.
    • The US 10-year T-note yield soars six and a half bps to 4.691%.
    • The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, edges up by 0.26% at 108.55 after bouncing from a weekly low of 107.75.
    • The ISM Services PMI in December increased by 54.1, exceeding forecasts of 53.3 and November’s 52.1 reading.
    • The Job Labor and Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed that work openings increased from 7.839 million to 8.098 million in November.
    • The US trade deficit widened in November, according to the US BEA, reaching $78.2 billion compared to $73.6 billion in October.
    • Imports climbed by 3.4% MoM to $351.6 billion from $339.9 billion, while exports increased by 2.7%MoM to $273.4 billion from $266.3 billion.

    XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price advances but remains below $2,650

    Gold prices have advanced above $2,640, opening the door to exchange hands at around the $2,640 – $2,650 range. Nonetheless, the yellow metal cannot decisively clear the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at around $2,651, which could pave the way for further upside.

    In that outcome, the next ceiling level would be $2,700 ahead of challenging the December 12 peak at $2,726. If surpassed, the next stop would be the record high at $2,790.

    Conversely, if sellers drag the XAU/USD below the 100-day SMA of $2,627, look for a test of $2,500 before Gold extends its losses to the 200-day SMA at $2,494.

    Gold FAQs

    Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

    Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

    Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

    The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

     



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  • SPX & Nasdaq 100 React to Strong US Data: Rate Cut Outlook Shifts


    • Stronger-than-expected US economic data (JOLTs job openings and ISM Services Index) weigh on US Indices.
    • Markets exhibited sensitivity to monetary policy expectations and potential volatility, with sector performance varying.
    • Technical analysis of the S&P 500 suggests a range-bound market with key support and resistance levels identified.
    • Upcoming non-farm payrolls and Fed meeting minutes releases are expected to further influence market volatility.

    Most Read: Gold (XAU/USD) Price Outlook: Bulls to Take Charge? US Services PMI Ahead

    US Indices and stocks are on course to end two consecutive days of gains following a batch of strong US data. The data fueled speculation that any potential rate cuts in 2025 would come later in the year, evidenced by the fact that traders no longer fully price in a Fed rate cut before July.

    US ISM Services and JOLTs Data Smash Estimates

    The US Labor Department reported 8.098 million job openings in November, higher than the 7.7 million economists surveyed by Reuters had expected.

    Additionally, an ISM survey showed that services activity in December remained strong with a reading of 54.1, beating the expected 53.3 and improving from the previous month.

    The robust data has added to expectations around rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

    Markets Remain Sensitive to Monetary Policy Expectations

    If today’s data confirmed anything it is that markets will remain sensitive to changes in monetary policy expectations moving forward. There is also the belief that extremely high valuations have left markets and US stocks more sensitive to volatility shocks. 

    However despite these high valuations and a stellar 2024, the election of Donald Trump as well as historical data appear to support further gains. 

    Bulls rejoice when the S&P 500 posts a 20% annual return. Historically, the following year has seen positive returns 81% of the time, with an average gain of 10.6% since 1950.

    Source: Isabelnet, Carson Research (click to enlarge)

    Winners and Losers

    Looking at the sector performance today as well as individual winners and losers thus far, healthcare stocks saw a 1% rise, leading gains in the S&P 500 sectors. Vaccine makers like Moderna, Novavax, and Pfizer jumped due to rising worries about bird flu.

    Tesla shares fell 2.9% after BofA Global Research downgraded the stock from “buy” to “neutral,” which also impacted the consumer discretionary sector.

    Micron Technology rose 5% following comments from Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, that the company is supplying memory for Nvidia’s new GeForce RTX 50 Blackwell gaming chips.

    Big banks performed well, with Citigroup increasing by 0.3% after positive coverage from Truist Securities, and Bank of America gaining 0.6% thanks to favorable ratings from several analysts.

    Source: LSEG (click to enlarge)

    The Week Ahead

    This week, the main highlights are the important non-farm payrolls report and the release of the Fed’s December meeting minutes due on Wednesday and Friday respectively. 

    Judging by today’s reaction, volatility seems to be a given. The bigger question right now is whether any moves to the downside remain sustainable or are they just opportunities for potential longs to get involved?

    For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

    Technical Analysis 

    S&P 500

    From a technical standpoint, the S&P 500 remains in somewhat of a range having broken the previous bullish structure that was in play.

    The overall price action picture does remain bearish following the daily candle close on December 18, 2024. Since then the Index has printed a lower high but failed to print a lower low.

    This could be seen as a sign of the bullish pressure and overall buoyant mood toward US stocks in general. 

    More recently the index has failed to break the 6025 swing high or the 5828 swing low, keeping it confined in a +- 100 point range. 

    A break of the swing high at 6025 could facilitate a move toward the all time just above and potentially the next key area on the upside around 6170. (based on a triangle pattern breakout yet to be fulfilled). 

    A continuation of today’s bearish move may find support at 5910 and 5828 which rests just above the 100-day MA, making this a key area of support. 

    A break of this key support level could pave the way for a deeper retracement toward the 5700 swing low from October 31, 2024.

    S&P 500 Daily Chart, January 7, 2025

    Source: TradingView (click to enlarge) 

    Support

    Resistance

    Follow Zain on Twitter/X for Additional Market News and Insights @zvawda

    Content is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. If you would like to reproduce or redistribute any of the content found on MarketPulse, an award winning forex, commodities and global indices analysis and news site service produced by OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc., please access the RSS feed or contact us at info@marketpulse.com. Visit https://www.marketpulse.com/ to find out more about the beat of the global markets. © 2023 OANDA Business Information & Services Inc.





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  • Pair remains under 20-day SMA, retreated towars 1.0370


    • EUR/USD inches lower to 1.0370 on Tuesday after repeated rejections at the 20-day SMA.
    • The RSI rises to 45, suggesting improving momentum but still hinting at a cautious outlook.
    • MACD shows flat green bars, indicating easing bearish pressure yet no clear bullish shift.

    EUR/USD managed to climb towards the 1.0370-1.0390 area at the begging of the year, continuing its fragile attempt to recover from recent losses. Despite this uptick, the pair has repeatedly struggled to decisively break above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) since the start of 2025, reinforcing the notion that sellers may still dictate the short-term direction.

    Technical readings are mixed. While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has lately improved to 45 suggesting a modest pickup in buying interest but it remains in negative territory, indicating that buyers are not yet fully in control. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram prints flat green bars, implying that bearish momentum is easing but hasn’t given way to a sustained bullish push.

    Looking ahead, a solid move above the 20-day SMA would be necessary to establish a more convincing recovery and open the door for further gains. Absent that, the pair remains vulnerable to renewed selling pressure, keeping its recent bounce on cautious footing.

    EUR/USD daily chart



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  • USD/JPY Price Analysis: Yen Recovers as Intervention Fears Rise


    • Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, warned traders against selling the yen.
    • The USD/JPY pair is quickly approaching the pivotal 160.00 level.
    • This week, the US will release its crucial nonfarm payrolls report.

    The USD/JPY price analysis shows some relief for the yen amid renewed warnings against excessive declines. Japan’s top officials are becoming increasingly concerned about the weak yen. On the other hand, the dollar was vulnerable as the market digested recent reports that Trump might go easy on tariffs.

    –Are you interested in learning more about STP brokers? Check our detailed guide-

    On Tuesday, Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned traders against selling the yen. He emphasized that the government would take appropriate action to respond to excessive currency declines. 

    The USD/JPY pair is quickly approaching the 160.00 level, prompting Japan to intervene last year. Therefore, market participants might be cautious since an intervention could momentarily reverse the trend. However, fundamentals point to further weakness for Japan’s currency, especially if the BoJ fails to hike interest rates soon. 

    Notably, the dollar has a bright future under Trump’s administration. At the same time, the Federal Reserve is planning to reduce interest rates in 2025 gradually. Therefore, the gap in interest rates between Japan and the US will remain wide. 

    Meanwhile, market participants will pay close attention to US data for more clues on Fed rate cuts. This week, the US will release its crucial nonfarm payrolls report. An upbeat report will further boost the dollar, while a downbeat report will increase Fed rate cut bets, hurting the greenback.

    USD/JPY key events today

    • US ISM services PMI
    • US JOLTS job openings

    USD/JPY technical price analysis: Bullish momentum wanes

    USD/JPY price analysisUSD/JPY price analysis
    USD/JPY 4-hour chart

    On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has attempted to breach the 158.02 resistance level again. However, it has pulled back below and is about to retest the 30-SMA support. Bulls are struggling to resume the previous trend. However, the bullish momentum is fading. The last trend peaked when the price met the 158.02 support level. Since then, it has remained in consolidation, with support at 156.03 and resistance at 158.02. 

    –Are you interested in learning more about forex bonuses? Check our detailed guide-

    At the same time, while the price has made a higher high, the RSI has made a lower one, indicating a bearish divergence. Therefore, bears might be ready to take charge. If this happens, the price will break below the 30-SMA and the 156.03 range support level.

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  • Gold price, WTI crude price and natural gas price higher in …

    Gold price, WTI crude price and natural gas price higher in …


    Commodity prices have risen in early trading, as gold and natural gas continue their recovery and WTI renews its upward move.



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